Klawchat 1/24/19.

My latest board game review for Paste covers Forbidden Sky, a new cooperative title from Matt Leacock (Pandemic, Forbidden Island) with a great STEM component to game play.

A reminder: the Top 100 prospect package begins its rollout on ESPN.com on Monday, January 28th.

Keith Law: At least we left before we had to go. Klawchat.

addoeh: Over/under? Combined, Harper and Machado’s deals end up being worth $500 million.
Keith Law: I’ll still take the over. I think the potential boost, in ticket sales and in wins, from adding one of those players will convince an owner to blink before we get to March. It’s the middle and lower tiers who will bear the brunt of the teams’ parsimony.

Nook: Is Bellinger still young enough to make significant strides offensively, or do you think 2018 was a realistic showing of who he is?
Keith Law: He’s still 23 so age isn’t a concern, but the way he swings leaves him vulnerable to a couple of pitching plans and he has to show he can adjust and shorten up if he wants to be more than he’s already been.

Adriane: Could you see the Reds selling off most of these new acquisitions at the deadline if the first half is a disappointment?
Keith Law: Yes, or even next winter in the case of Gray if he has a good year but the team still finishes in 4th place.

Kimmy: Dennis Santana: 4th-starter ceiling?
Keith Law: More likely reliever for me. I feel like if he starts he’d be more than that, but the odds are he’s a reliever.

Devon: Do you see the current collusion in the FA market as a cyclical problem that disappears after a few offseasons?
Keith Law: If it’s collusion, it’s not cyclical. One or the other.

Ave Maria: Is there a pitcher in the Dodgers system you’re particularly high on at the moment?
Keith Law: Several. You’ll see a couple of those names Monday-Wednesday.

Genesis B: Not that you care, but do you think Jeter has tainted his legacy somewhat since his group took over the Marlins?
Keith Law: I don’t care, but I can still comment. And yes, I think so.

barbeach: KLaw: Thanks as always for the chat. Question: Who is worse at his job: Trump or Giuliani? It’s close, but I have to go with Rudy.
Keith Law: Giuliani. He makes Lionel Hutz (RIP) look like Clarence Darrow.

Guest: Thoughts on the Mariano induction? Does this mean unanimous elections are going to be more common?
Keith Law: I believe they will be and fans will attach undue meaning to it. If your player gets in with 75.00%, that should be good enough.

Chris : The Markakis and Pomeranz deals are great for ATL and SFG. Agree?
Keith Law: They’re fine. They’re not bad. Great … would require a lot more than I think either player will provide.

Guest: What are the odds that the Mets traded Kelenic at his highest peak value? I’m sure the Rangers wish they traded Profar.
Keith Law: Low. Kelenic was too impressive this summer to think he’s peaked.

Helena: Is the long reliever cemented as a thing of the past, or could the Brewers’ and Red Sox postseason strategies revive it?
Keith Law: On the contrary, it’s already been revived, and I’m hearing more scouts describe pitchers as multi-inning relievers rather than just going with the binary starter/reliever framework.

Chris : Any buy-low FA starters you’d take over others? Wade Miley and Doug Fister seem like innings eaters in the right environment.
Keith Law: Miley for sure, best of that group. Fister, no.

Esteban: Who are a couple of names that weren’t on the top 100 or ‘Just Missed’ list that you wouldn’t be surprised–even expect– to make a big leap?
Keith Law: I’m not revealing any names on the list today. You’ll see them Monday through Wednesday and I will chat either Wednesday or Thursday.

addoeh: So our billionaire Commerce Secretary had his “Let them eat cake!” moment by saying furloughed Federal employees should get loans to cover the fact they aren’t getting paychecks. Of course, loans themselves have a real cost and some Federal employees may only be able to get predatory loans. Can he really be that out of touch?
Keith Law: Yes, he definitely is, as is Lara Trump, as are so many of the people responsible for the Trump Shutdown who appear unaware of the consequences for so many federal workers and for so many people who voted for Trump.

Leonardo: While it’s nice that Rivera was named on 100% of the HOF ballots it makes me wonder why 23 people didn’t vote for Willie Mays and 9 passed on Hank Aaron. I feel they were much better players (even in a different era). Any theories/ideas?
Keith Law: Lack of accountability. Misguided notions of “not on the first ballot.” General stupidity.

Mark: Hi Klaw,
If for some reason Tatis isn’t called up (injury, poor production, etc.) is Urias good enough defensively to play a full season at SS and be at least league average?
Keith Law: I think he’d be a 45 defender in the majors at short. I’m fine with him playing there for two months while Tatis tears up triple-A.

Mark: Keith,
Did you read the story in the SD Union-Tribune about the Padres’ owners “opening their books”? If so, did you find any of the information notable or was it just spin? Fowler, et all, come off looking like novices, like they didn’t know Moores was leaving a ton of debt or that just because you acquire some MLB players for one season in 2015 it doesn’t automatically mean you’re going to make a $50 million profit.
Keith Law: It did not paint the owners in a particularly good light.

Lafayette: If Andrew Friedman phoned you in a panic, desperate to find out how to put a World Series champion on the field, what would you tell him (after “Read ‘Smart Baseball”) ?
Keith Law: Live by launch angle, die by launch angle.

Fuzzy Dunlop: Snit saying they are leaning toward Inciarte leading off. 2 weeks max before they swtich Acuna there, right?
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s the wrong choice.

Kip: Arenado or Machado?
Keith Law: Machado.

Trevor: The D-backs have announced they’re switching their field surface from grass to turf next year and the Rangers may install it in their new stadium. Are you a purist and prefer the natural surface or ¯\_(?)_/¯ about it? Does it affect the grading of defensive skills in anyway?
Keith Law: Doesn’t affect the grading. Prefer grass from the aesthetic perspective but it’s still baseball on good turf.

Mike: Klaw, thanks for the chat. Who do we see first in MLB, a lefty catcher or lefty middle infielder. I read where Mets prospect Carlos Cortes learned how to throw with right hand so he can still play the infield. That’s crazy,
Keith Law: How could a lefty thrower play short or second?

Marshall MN: KLaw, I was just perusing the Baseball Prospectus Top 100, just curious do you ever look at those lists? Not necessarily as a check on your work but just to see how other writers/analysts rank prospects?
Keith Law: I look at BA’s (came out yesterday), MLB’s (comes out Saturday), and Fangraphs’ (comes out after the Super Bowl, date TBD). Those are the only lists I find credible, and I believe that is the industry sentiment. Jonathan Mayo and I generally compare our lists once they’re published, too. It’s fun to see what we heard that lined up and what we heard that widely differed.

Alex: As an author, how do you feel about people who can afford to buy your book, or any book, borrowing from the library instead? Is it a material drain on earnings? As background, my wife and I are trying to reduce our “new” purchases, but I don’t want to hurt authors.
Keith Law: Read my book however you like. I use the library myself. I buy new and used books. I buy ebooks when I see they’re on sale. read 104 books last year – that’s a lot of money if I buy them all new.

Kody: Dodgers sign Pollock for 4-5 years depending on who you believe. Doesn’t even a 10 year deal for Harper taking him through about the same age as Pollock’s deal make more sense? Nobody is concerned about Harper’s 26-31 seasons, right?
Keith Law: Well it’s not the same annual cost, not close.

Marshall MN: KLaw is it too early to put in a preemptive “you hate my team” complaint prior to the release of your Top 100 list next week?
Keith Law: Never too early.

David Stearns: I am high on my guy Hirua, how much of his minor league hit prowess translates, and do we have a 2B for the next 10 years who is at the top f his game?
Keith Law: He’s a solid player, very very likely to hit enough to be a regular. Star potential is limited.

Matt: There had to be a handful of writers that didn’t want to vote Rivera but were also worried they’d be the *only* one that didn’t vote for him right?
Keith Law: I never considered omitting him, but it occurred to me that doing so could make me the only one, and then I’d have to go into hiding.

Sack: When do you expect Harper and Machado to sign?
Keith Law: In February.

Mike: When a prospect returns bonus money, as Murray in theory might, how does that actually work? Presumably he’s spent some of it, so does the team give him time to repay? And what about taxes–he presumably paid a huge tax bill in the year he got his big bonus…can he claim a huge refund in the year he gives it back?
Keith Law: If Murray has to return the money it means he just got a much larger check from the NFL. He’ll be fine.

B Mand: Do you think the current Red Sox bullpen is as big of a weakness as most make it out to be? With the year to year fluctuation of relief pitchers, I’m fine with them saving their money for in-season trades if they end up needing help.
Keith Law: Same. And I wouldn’t overpay for Kimbrel just to try to patch it.

J: With another mystifying off-season for the Rockies coming to a close, what do you see them doing with McMahon and Rodgers, at least in 2019? And, Twins’ handling of outfield prospects aside, has a top prospect been more oddly dealt with than McMahon in recent years?
Keith Law: I feel like Rodgers is blocked for the moment, although I’m not a big Hampson fan (it’s 30 power) and Rodgers might bash enough in Albuquerque (huge hitter’s park) to force the issue by June. Their reluctance to let McMahon play regularly is befuddling. High pick, touted by the team, athletic, still has growth left. Play him.

Aaron C.: Has the *official* official schedule for the daily(?) prospects postings been released or is that still in the hands of your benevolent editor?
Keith Law: I mentioned it at the top of this post.

Ryan: Keith – do you think the removal of one year of team control – or even a change in the number of years of arbitration rights a team holds over a player – could help the stagnant free agency period and/or help to re-establish the player middle class. As is, I see the league devolving into a split between the well paid superstars and the entry level/roughly minimum wage players. In fairness, baseball isn’t the only sport going this route, but it certainly feels as wrong as the shrinking middle class in America. Thank you
Keith Law: I think the best solution would be to boost the minimum salary to $1 million or more. But that has some unintended consequences too.

Tom: Al Avila said today he doesn’t foresee the Tigers spending again until 2021, and that that’s the soonest they can compete. Does 2021 seem like a realistic goal for them in terms of being relevant?
Keith Law: I probably would have said 2022. The system has improved but still has a ways to go.

Mike: Thoughts on Dodgers trading away Puig (and friends) and replacing him with older and injury prone AJ Pollock?
Keith Law: Puig was a free agent after the year, so your question is leading, omitting a critical detail – and Pollock may be older but he’s a better all-around player right now.

Shane: Have you heard any whispers about what type of punishment the Dodgers face for their international issues and if that is playing a hand in their offseason moves?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard a word about it nor have I asked. Not really my department.

Anthony: Would you support a rule that shrinks MiLB option years from 3 to 1? It seems teams cycle through pre-arb guys with options while eschewing mid-level free agents, and this could open up opportunities for players blocked in their current orgs by spurring trades or waiver claims (albeit with maybe some adverse effects on player development)?
Keith Law: I feel like owners would absolutely lose their shit over that. They love their control.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. What should MLB and the union consider implementing: earlier free agency, scrapping amateur bonus limits…what else?
Keith Law: I like the idea of earlier free agency because it’s pro-player, but really, would it change teams’ refusal to spend? I don’t see why.

BE: With the slow moving FA market, would it make sense for a team in a winnable division to load up on bargain deals and try to steal one?
Keith Law: I think you just subtweeted the Twins and White Sox.

Jason: Is Pollock better than Joc Pederson over the next two years?
Keith Law: Yes.

Zac: After next year, do you think your HOF ballot won’t have 10 names on it?
Keith Law: If I had to fill it out right now, I’d have 9.

Kwame: I know this is kind of a cheesy question but how did it feel to cast a Hall of Fame ballot?
Keith Law: Good. An honor and a privilege, but also an obligation to take it seriously. And yet there are still people unhappy with me. ?

Bort: Bryce Harper to the Blue Jays. Wouldn’t that be fun?
Keith Law: Yes. Can’t imagine Rogers doing that.

Andrew: Where do you see Kuechel landing? Would be a great fit for Colorado and give them one of the better rotations in the NL.
Keith Law: Great fit for every team, no?

Jerry: If Kyle Tucker tears it up in the spring again is he still headed to AAA to start the season? Is there a trade market for Josh Reddick?
Keith Law: They don’t really have a DH, so there is a job for Tucker if he earns it.

Andrew: I don’t get the uproar RE: the Gillette commercial. Aren’t they just saying don’t raise your kid to be an ass?
Keith Law: Yes. The uproar felt almost manufactured. Or maybe men are just little porcelain dolls who shatter if you look at them funny.

Boa : Angels are mystery Harper/Machado suitor right? Do over from Pujols/Hamilton disasters?
Keith Law: That would be fun. And then they probably do make the playoffs.

Alex: Saw your Instagram post about ottolenghi’s newest cookbook. Food looks good! But I’m also reading reviews that the recipes for an average home cook might actually take longer than 30mins to prepare? What’s been your experience?
Keith Law: The shallow-fried potatoes I made last night required about 10-15 minutes of prep and then cooked for 35. So that’s not a 30 minute recipe. I think the book’s beauty is that nothing is hard – you don’t need huge skills for anything, so if you do have some skills, you can prep quickly. My main complaint so far is that his quantities of herbs are hilariously high. 1/2 cup of thyme? I’d spend all fucking day trimming leaves to get that.

Bob: Time to give up on Hunter Harvey?
Keith Law: Why? Not sure I understand the desire fans have to give up on players.

Lilith: Sammy Siani or Mike Siani? Who has better tools and who would you say ends up being the better prospect?
Keith Law: I haven’t scouted Sammy yet, but he’s local so I certainly will. Mike could really run and I think he can hit, but some doofus hitting guru decided to try to improve his launch angle and suddenly he was Mr. Popup.

Zach: Should the Reds be commending for trying to win (unlike half the league) and holding onto their top prospects, or criticized for giving up mid-level pieces to improve a team that still probably won’t make the playoffs?
Keith Law: Thrilled to see a team try to win, but I don’t think they’ve gotten good value for their prospects.

Traino: Biggest Oscar lock?
Keith Law: Roma for Best Foreign Language Film.

ergo08: Hi Keith, listening to Jade Bird right now! Thanks for all your great content including that hidden gem. She rocks. Is there such a thing as how a swing transitions from aluminum to wood? Or, does that not really matter? Also, Twenty one pilots – yea or nay? Thanks!!
Keith Law: There can be a difference for some hitters, depending on the swing path and the hitter’s hand/wrist strength. I hate Twentyone pilots with the fire of a billion suns.

Beetlejuice: Seems like Gray has a good chance of outperforming 4 yrs @ $38M. Did he sell himself too short or does he have serious questions on being a league avg pitcher going forwards?
Keith Law: He also has a good chance of getting hurt, or underperforming. I don’t blame him one bit.

Jordan: With Justin Dunn gone, which pitcher has the most upside in the Mets system? I am torn between Szapucki and Woods-Richardson.
Keith Law: SWR – started throwing harder once he stopped playing shortstop too.

CH: Mariano Rivera is a HoFer for sure, but has anyone else’s worst career moments ever been more overlooked and whitewashed than his? (Luis Gonzalez/Game 7 2001 WS, Dave Roberts/Game 5 2004 ALCS, Sandy Alomar/Game 4 ALDS 1997).
Keith Law: I’m having a hard time seeing the Gonzalez or Roberts moments as some terrible events we’d have to work to gloss over. Didn’t Gonzalez just chop one weakly up the middle?

Patrick: If there was no 10 max, how many people would have gotten your vote for HOF?
Keith Law: I said 14 in my column, IIRC.

Jackie: Jeter is the only “gimmie” on next year’s HOF ballot. Do you think Curt Schilling, the highest vote total among the non-elected, goes in as well? Perhaps the only American who needs to stay away from Twitter more than Trump …
Keith Law: I believe Jeter gets in, still think Walker can make a big move (with some sabermetrics support), and wonder if the changing electorate will hurt Schilling, who seemed from Ryan Thibodeaux’s work to get far more of his support from white, male writers than other candidates.

Justin R: Is next year finally going to be Max Kepler’s breakout?
Keith Law: I dreamed last night that Kepler was in the middle of a breakout season. Not even joking.

Justin R: What is stopping AOC from running for President and daring the Supreme Court to stop her? Absurd that her age disqualifies her but a racist reality show host in his 70s (with obvious signs of significant cognitive decline) can run.
Keith Law: On what grounds? The age requirement is in the Constitution. You can’t claim it’s unconstitutional.

Justin R: Can just one reporter ask Trump why we have to be nice to the little Covington bigots after what he did to the Central Park Five?
Keith Law: I think we both know the answer to that. White privilege is a hell of a drug.

Johnny: Is Eloy as ready as many are saying? What kind of an impact do you think he can make this season?
Keith Law: He was ready last summer.

Sean: Do you believe that Halladay would’ve been a first-ballot HOF regardless of his tragic passing?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t have been surprised at all if he’d fallen short, somewhere in the 60-65% range, and gotten in on year 2. His career wasn’t very long by HoF standards, and voters have been very hard on starting pitchers the last ten years.

Erik: Please tell me neither Green Book nor BR will win best
Keith Law: I’m betting on Roma. If you wanted to place an actual bet, since Roma is something like -1100, I’d go with the Favourite, which got Director and Screenplay nods. But Roma getting those two plus surprise nominations for two actresses says to me it might run the table.

Tom: Thoughts on Darwinzon Hernandez? Is his most likely future as a high-leverage reliever, or does he overcome his control issues and remain a starter?
Keith Law: Starter upside, long way to go to get there.

JIm: Keith, did you ever read any of Jasper FForde’s other books? I just finished the first book of his Nursery Crimes Division duology. A bit less compelling than the Thursday Next, but not bad at all.
Keith Law: I’ve read everything he’s written, and I preordered Early Riser already.

Larry: Hey Keith, I know you don’t like commenting on other lists, but Baseball America had Geraldo Perdomo ahead of Kristian Robinson in the Dbacks system. What do you think of Perdomo’s potential, and do you think he may be a better prospect than Robinson? Thank you!
Keith Law: I’ll just say I have Robinson a good bit higher than Perdomo.

Quicky the Fast: The Rangers appear committed to Gallo and Mazara in the outfield corners this year, which means no role for Willie Calhoun if Shin-Soo Choo is the DH. At this point, should Texas simply release Choo, or is there value in keeping him around?
Keith Law: Choo was worth 2.8 rWAR last year – releasing him now would be bonkers. At least see if he’s still capable of producing.

Taylor: Hey Keith, have you heard of a metal band called Nevermore? I just heard of them this week and they really kick ass!
Keith Law: Yes, but they’re defunct. That was Tim Calvert’s band after Forbidden, but he died last April.

Jackie: One thing about the Mariano 100% election — he was the unquestioned Best Player Ever at his position. There’s universal agreement that he’s the #1 closer of all time. When was the last time we had such a player on the ballot? Junior Griffey was a better ball player, but he wasn’t the best outfielder ever. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if Jeter isn’t a 100% vote next year — great player, but someone will say, “Yeah, but he was no Honus Wagner.”
Keith Law: And it shouldn’t matter. He gets a plaque regardless of his vote total.

Justin R: What was the worst movie you saw in 2018?
Keith Law: The Wife. Execrable, predictable, insulting claptrap.

Victor: Could you see Judge being a passage center fielder despite his size, a-la Bellinger?
Keith Law: No.

Aaron C.: Was it last year when an illness during “prospects writing season” hampered you? Do you feel it impacted the final product w/r/t phone calls, writing length, analysis that wouldn’t hamstring a healthy Klaw? (FWIW, that’s not a dig. I always love your sh t, sir.)
Keith Law: Three years ago. Worst illness I’ve had as an adult. It cost me some phone call time, but we also pushed the whole package back a week because I physically couldn’t work.

Jackie: For the record, I’m a huge Red Sox fan, and I’m OK with it if you hate our farm system. Looking pretty barren …
Keith Law: It’s weak, but not barren – they were as riddled with injuries as any system I can think of. Their recent drafts have been solid, and they have some big-time international FA prospects on the way. They could go 25 to 10 (I don’t have that finalized, this is just a general idea) in a year.

San Cristóbal D.R: Surprise no Yankees make BA top 100 list?
Keith Law: I’m not surprised, although I have more than zero.

Beetlejuice: To win the most games, you’re given the choice of taking 5 #3 starters or a #1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Regulation season win total only considered. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: the 1-2-3-4-5.

John : Any advice for furloughed government worker who isn’t getting paid ? How can I not be so angry at the president for a stinking wall?
Keith Law: You should be angry, and then do something about it, but first take care of yourself and your family. It’s fortunate that so many charities and businesses are trying to help – it just shouldn’t be necessary.

Sean: My guess is Harper and Machado both announce on Super Bowl Sunday. Isn’t that what A-Rod did a while back?
Keith Law: As a fan of polite trolling, I would endorse this wholeheartedly.

Matt: Can a player be removed from the Hall of Fame? Let’s say a member was convicted of murder for example.
Keith Law: Nope. Although you raise an interesting question: What if we have an OJ Simpson situation, a player on the ballot who is absolutely worthy on baseball grounds but who commits a crime that is beyond the pale? There are at least two players on the ballot now who were accused of domestic abuse (Bonds, during his career, by his wife Sun; Andruw, after his career, by his wife), and one accused of statutory rape (Clemens, who denied it). I know of one other who has an accusation that wasn’t public. I’m sure there are more. are there some crimes we can’t overlook? Does the character clause cover things after one’s career? I have no good answers.

Kyle Tucker : Do I replace Josh Reddick in June ?
Keith Law: Springer, Reddick, Brantley, Tucker, three outfield spots + DH.

Anuj: Is Ruiz and J. Gray for Realmuto too much, fair, or too little?
Keith Law: Too much, and the Dodgers are not trading for a terrible framing catcher.

Kevin : Are there any underrated minor-league prospects that come up and make an impact this summer ?
Keith Law: I’ll have a ranking of the top 20 prospects for 2019 impact up at the end of next week. As for “underrated,” if I think they’ll have an impact in 2019, then I won’t underrate them.

Justin R: Now that Edgar Martinez is (finally) in, does David Ortiz go in on the first ballot?
Keith Law: Yes.

JIm: Am I the only one who has the feeling that Trump came out of the SOTU fight looking like the more mature adult?
Keith Law: (looks around) Yep, you are indeed the only one.

Jake: Have you every played Diplomacy? If so, what did you think?
Keith Law: Yes. After the second time I killed someone for betraying me, I thought I should take a break.

Leandro: Heard you on BBTN today saying you think Helton is Hall-worthy at some point. Feel the same way about Larry Walker?
Keith Law: My ballot was public.

Jim: Keith – Do you think the sale of Fox (or part of Fox) to Disney will impact the regional sport channels and the next contracts some of the teams might get? I know the Fox interest in some, like YES, are already being discussed as available.
Keith Law: Disney wasn’t allowed to retain the RSNs (Fox Sports Paducah, etc.) by the Justice Department.

EC: Is there something that you wish readers of your prospect write ups would do or know? Like not assume gaps between ranks are uniform? Understanding positional value and scarcity? Taking a bit of time to understand how your methodology differs from other lists before coming at you? Reading the introduction?
Keith Law: Read the intro and calm down.

Todd: Shouldnt all Hall of Fame inductees have to get 100%? It should be a group of immortal players who no dibt are qualified
Keith Law: You must be fun at parties.

Patrick: going off what Mike said previously, in your opinion how come we’ve never seen a lefty catcher or why do you think it’s not taught more at a younger age?
Keith Law: If you can throw that well and you’re left-handed someone is putting you on a mound. There’s also the old belief that a LH catcher would be at a disadvantage throwing with more batters batting RH.

Chris: Brad Brach for 1/$3M is a steal. 2019 is the year of the market correction.
Keith Law: He was worth less than a win last year and relievers are volatile. It’s not like he should be getting $10 million.

Greg: Did you see all the awful Jays fans coming out of the woodwork to berate Halladay’s family for “clearly going against his wishes” to go into the hall has a Blue Jay? As if they somehow knew better than his wife, just based on one interview he gave. Just gross. Do you think it’s possible that his wife got some insight from Doc in non-interview form? Just maybe?
Keith Law: Yep. That Philly Inquirer column was worse. Someone wrote that he knew better than Halladay’s widow, and ignored Halladay’s own statements in 2016, and then at least one editor saw that and thought, “yeah, this is definitely a well-considered opinion and not something that will embarrass our entire newspaper.”

Kacey: Thoughts on AOC? Personally I’m in love. The type of politician I’ve always wanted.
Keith Law: I’m just enjoying the conservative obsession with her and how frequently she dunks on them on social media. That doesn’t make her a good or bad Congressperson, but it is very entertaining.

Todd: Yanks still have a good to really good farm system?
Keith Law: No, with trades and graduations it has declined, although they have this cluster of Latin American kids, all 19 and under, who have big potential with low probabilities.

Harrison: Do you see Nick Castellanos being dealt this offseason? If so, what type of return do you think he could bring in? Any chance at a Top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: They have no reason to keep him at this point, but should wait for a good offer – one top 100 guy, two guys who are close.

John: What’s the difference between this shutdown and the Obama shutdown besides political opinions on how much should go to the border wall? House republicans caved to Obama back then, are republicans wrong to expect the same from house democrats here?
Keith Law: I mean, what’s the difference between World War II and the Korean War besides the extermination of 6 million Jews?

Greg: Remember all those people saying Pelosi should step aside? Can you imagine anyone else handing Trump his lunch like that? You know he’s terrified of her when his nickname for her is… “Nancy.”
Keith Law: Trevor Noah made that joke. He calls a murderous dictator Rocket Man and calls Pelosi by her given name.

John: What do you think Jahmai Jones ends up as?
Keith Law: Solid average second baseman. Still have some hope for more – he hasn’t hit like I expected yet.

Ryan: I know this isnt a huge issue in the grand scheme of things but how do you feel about Halladay not going into the HOF without a Jays cap? I understand that was what his family decided but do you think players or their families should have input into this decision or should it be left up to the Hall entirely? Seems wrong that he isn’t going in as a Jay.
Keith Law: There’s no way I’m going against a widow’s wishes.

Ben Jammin: Do you think Dom Smith has some decent upside left? I think most any of the non-contending teams should be interested, as he can’t really be all that expensive.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

El Guapo: Thoughts on Julio Urias’ outlook? Is it 100% a health question going forward? The stuff looked to be back last fall but sample is so small… can he still be a no. 2 if everything works out? Or is that a pipe dream.
Keith Law: Uncharted waters. I know people keep asking me this, but we have so little history of pitchers having this surgery and returning that there isn’t a good answer.

drew: Keith, I’m missing your FA evaluations…how come they stopped after the first couple weeks of free agency? Can we expect them back?
Keith Law: Kind of busy writing up the prospect stuff.
Keith Law: I did write up the Gray trade though.

Jeff: Keith – I understand that the Reds only acquired 1 year of Gray from NYY, but it seems to me that they essentially agreed to a package and made it contingent upon Gray agreeing to an extension. Otherwise, they were just going to back out altogether. There was no “here’s what we’ll give you if he signs; here’s what we’ll give you if he doesn’t.” Is that more understandable/justifiable to you, or is it a distinction without a difference?
Keith Law: If they were willing to trade for his one year with the extension, then they should have been willing to trade for the one year without it.

Tyler: I am glad I do not have a vote. Your ballot was one of the better ones for sure. I would have left Rivera off and felt really bad about it. I had him between 8th and 13th on this ballot and knowing full well he was getting in would have used it on someone else. As bad as I feel for McGriff he is going to get in soon. Out of all the players who did not get 5% is there any who you wish you still had a chance to vote for?
Keith Law: Ever? Lou Whitaker.

Aaron G: The Gonzalez hit in the 2001 WS was a humpback liner that if Torre had played the IF at double play depth Jeter would have caught.
Keith Law: Right? I mean, yes, Rivera gave up the batted ball, but it’s not like it was crushed.

Marshall MN: KLaw are you going on a vacation now that your Top 100 work is wrapping up?
Keith Law: I will take a few days off in early February. Not sure if I’ll go somewhere or just chill at home.

cnp: You read 104 books last year…nice. I only hit 60 so just making my way through last years Top Books™. If you haven’t read it, I thoroughly suggest Washington Black. Thought it was beautiful
Keith Law: Thank you, I will seek it out. Best new books I read were Lincoln in the Bardo, Exit West, From a Low and Quiet Sea, Sabrina, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Why We Sleep.

Ron: Keith – the hot take bait question these days seems to be, “is it immoral for our society to have billionaires?”. How would you answer that?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t; I’m not that concerned with morality in economics. I’ll take a system that feels ‘immoral’ if it means the economy is growing and the greatest possible number of people are getting all of their basic needs met.

Kacey: What’s the theory on gaining support for the HOF? Either you think someone is worthy or you don’t.
Keith Law: The crowded ballot and time to reconsider their qualifications.

Drew: Did you listen to any exceptional audiobooks last year that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Killers of the Flower Moon.

Joe: Keith, knowing that you have finite time, would you ever see a movie that just looks good to you even if it got poor reviews?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jackie: Do you ever look at your posts to see how many clicks/responses they get? And does that affect what you later post, i.e., “Well, no one cared about my ‘Police Academy 9’ review, so I guess I won’t review any more Steve Guttenberg movies at Meadow Party.” Or are you … indifferent to the volume of response to your posts?
Keith Law: Sort of. I stopped doing music posts beyond the monthly playlists because people didn’t click much on album reviews or leave comments. But I review a lot of books or obscure movies that don’t get clicks, and I don’t mind that. The Top Chef reviews did pretty well, on the other hand, but took 3-4 hours (including time to watch), and I just can’t afford that.

Jeries: Can Nick Madrigal be a 4 WAR player if he hits zero home runs?
Keith Law: I think he’ll hit 5-8, and probably never see 4 WAR.

Thomas: Triston Casas should start the season in ….
Keith Law: I’d be fine sending him to Greenville.

Bob Pollard: Would you consider the Cardinals’ system “ridiculously prospect-rich”?
Keith Law: No, but it’s in the middle.

KillMonger: Thanks to you, I read Sabrina and absolutely loved it – powerful storytelling. On a random note – have you read Pale Fire? I’m on a Nabokov kick and I’m finishing up Pnin right now. His prose is HOF-level.
Keith Law: I did read Pale Fire and found it kind of annoying/frustrating. Too ‘inside baseball’ for me.

Querant: Is there any practical difference between getting an invite to major league training, and not getting an invite, for a player on a minor league deal? Do they get a larger stipend if they are invited to major league camp, better housing, etc.? Or is it just a matter of which clubhouse they go to each morning?
Keith Law: Better per diems and of course a chance to play in major league games, which means a chance to make the team or catch the attention of other teams.

Brent: Do you think Luis Gonzalez from CWS is an under the radar prospect worth keeping an eye on? Put up good numbers, though I think he’s old for his level, but does he have the potential to be a “prospect”?
Keith Law: He is a prospect. Wasn’t he just a second round pick?

Jake: As someone who is well to the right of you politically (but probably on the same page on baseball), can I apologize that my party nominated this moron and still stand behind him as he fucks everything up?
Keith Law: Yes, but if lots of people like you just move temporarily to the left, we can go back to our normal level of fucked-up as opposed to the current level of holy fucking shit we fucked this up.

Ian: You mean soon to be Academy Award Winning “The Wife”. Such a weird Oscar year.
Keith Law: I’m not sure. Colman could take it.

Todd: No cloud of PEDs on Ortiz’s ballot?
Keith Law: We remember what we choose to remember, and forget what it is convenient to forget.

Doug: Looking forward to your list next week. Also, I am glad the Dominican Series is over and Tatis won’t be able to break a finger just in case you keep him at #1.
Keith Law: He’s still #1 – that’s not news, since he was there in July.

el Guapo: On Tatis, obviously you are very high on him. Is it nitpicking to point out that he struck out at a 28% clip last year and that number didn’t come down even when he went on a tear (babip reliant)? Or is it just a 19 year old playing at a very advanced AA level and I need to get used to the fact that Ks are part of modern baseball. It’s worth noting for others (not sure I have seen you do this) making the Machado comp that Manny only K’ed at a 19% clip in AA at a similar age.
Keith Law: 28% isn’t that high today and he was, as you said, 19, exceptionally young for that level. And he’s a shortstop.

Drew: Are you planning to vote in the Democratic Primary? If so, will you take electability concerns into account, or are you going to vote for whomever you think would make do the job best if they win in the general?
Keith Law: Delaware’s primary is pretty late – April 26th in 2016 – so it may not matter at all.

Corey: Still thinking that the quickest way to end the shutdown is a mass TSA/air traffic controller sick-out. Not a strike as that’s illegal but if the global transportation system shuts down, gives the Traitor Turtle an out. This is purely about his ’20 re-election b/c of how tightly the KY GOP supports Dump.
Keith Law: I’d imagine many wealthy people who have supported the GOP on tax policies and the massive rollback of environmental and labor protections will be very unhappy if their flights are cancelled or delayed.

C: Is kikuchi a prospect or a veteran? How should a prospect be defined by a ranking service? Mlb experience or should age/professional (non minor league) experience effect if they are ranked in prospect rankings?
Keith Law: He played in a major league. He’s not a prospect. I do not rank NPB or KBO veterans.

Kurt: Are the Nats better this year than last? I’m not doing the, “better without Harper” thing…but if you had to guess, this roster will win more than 82 games, right?
Keith Law: Yes, they’re better. If they re-sign Harper after all, they’re the favorites in the East.

Jerry: Assuming no catastrophes (Bregman, Correa career-ending injuries, etc) how long do you think the Astros window of contention is open for?
Keith Law: I’d say another 4-5 years. The system is still above the median for me.

Justin R: How do you motivate yourself to write? I have outlined and planned novels for years but when it comes time to actually write a chapter, I freeze up.
Keith Law: Write something else first. Anything. A journal, a blog post, a letter to nobody. Then don’t stop – move right into writing your chapters.

John: I don’t know if you’ve read this, but I keep telling everyone. In the past election only 5% of americans voted for Trump or Hillary in the primaries. 5% of people decided the two people that could be our next president. VOTE IN PRIMARIES.
Keith Law: I hadn’t but it doesn’t surprise me. The Iowa Caucuses are the dumbest thing in our country’s dumb politics.

Kyle KS: What’s the reason behind the general lack of support for Rolen? Better hitter and defender than Vizquel but nowhere near the votes.
Keith Law: There’s a weird mythology around Vizquel from people who watched him and think they saw a much better defender than they actually saw.

Jim: How do you possibly deny that you are a leftist?
Keith Law: People call me a “leftist” because I think science is real, all people deserve equal treatment under the law, and we should base policies on evidence. Well slap my knee and call me Karl.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading this week. The prospect package does indeed begin on Monday with the “just missed” list. I’ll chat next week to take your questions on the top 100, and then the farm rankings and org reports go up the following week. Thanks again and enjoy your weekends.