Keith Law: Hang a sign upon the door. Klawchat.
Chris: This Mets GM hire looks dumber and dumber already. Future of the team aside, the fact that existing agents like Boras are wary upfront of dealing with Van Wagenen on any level should’ve made this a non-starter. Bloom or Ng would’ve been great hires.
Keith Law: Boras is wary of dealing with BVW, but I don’t know that any other agents are. I don’t want to generalize from one guy’s comments here. I thought Bloom would have been a great hire, yes.
Bernie: Should the Yankees be looking at Daniel Murphy to fill their 1B/2B issue? Gleyber at SS until Didi is ready to come back then Gleyber to 2B and Murphy to 1B.
Keith Law: No, because Murphy can’t really play second base.
Briggs: KLAW, thanks for the chat as always. I’ve recently been trying to listen to more science focused books on Audible. I’m particularly interested in space/astrophysics and other things in that vein. Do you have any recommendations for books which are informative but accessible?
Keith Law: Einstein’s Cosmos, Spooky Action at a Distance, Uncertainty (David Lindley) all might fit what you’re looking for and I listened to those as audiobooks.
Jon: Keith, thoughts on Stir Candelario’s upside please? Last time I saw scores he was 50 Hit tool and 60 PWR. About right? Thank you in advance for the answer.
Keith Law: I never gave him those scores nor would I.
addoeh: Who are you, who are so wise in the ways of science?
Keith Law: I am Arthur, King of Elwood City.
Ben: I want to learn to make really good homemade pizza. Any books you would recommend on the topic?
Keith Law: The dough I make is from Peter Reinhart’s Bread Baker’s Apprentice, and it’s incredible for making very thin Neapolitan-style crusts. There’s a new pizza book out from Marc Vetri that I’m hoping to pick up to build on that. Of course I need a better oven to really step up my game, but I can turn out decent pizzas by cooking in my regular oven at 500 degrees for six minutes, using a pizza stone set on the oven floor.
Chris: Will Toffey have any value? Seems like a super-sub candidate who can hit righties.
Keith Law: Not to me. I don’t think there’s any hit value there at all.
Joe: I feel the Padres best, most well rounded outfield going forward is Myers, Margot and Cordero. What kind of value would Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have on the trade market?
Keith Law: Both are essentially extra outfielders. That’s not much value in and of itself but 1) in a package they would both add something because they’re cheap with years of control and 2) it’s always possible another team looks at one or the other and sees a regular.
Kevin: Do you see the White Sox as making reasonable offers to Machado and/or Harper? I’d love to see it, but it’s not in their DNA. As a Sox fan, hopefully I’m wrong.
Keith Law: It would fit, given how close their young talent is, but I would be surprised.
GS(Athens): I’m curious about Royce Lewis sticking at SS. Are there some tangible, concrete skills he has shown improvement on and where would you see his ceiling as a defender there if everything goes right? Also, just moved to Athens, GA and tried Five & Ten. Acheson isn’t in the kitchen anymore of course but it’s still quite tasty!
Keith Law: No, I’m still a skeptic on him at short.
Bmosc: It truly amazes me how many people either don’t care that our President is completely devoid of integrity and about as low character as you can get, or, worse yet, celebrate those facts. I don’t think our country has been this divided in a long time, and it’s virtually impossible to have a rational political discussion anymore.
Keith Law: The White House has been circulating a fake video of yesterday’s press conference, and their pals in state media are further promulgating it. If you’re okay with that, you’re part of the problem.
TD: I’ve been down on Clint Frazier for awhile and wonder what your thoughts were on him and his trade value? To me h is upside is .250 with 20 homers.
Keith Law: Those two numbers don’t give much of a picture. I think he’s a sub-.300 OBP guy even if fully healthy, and while he has 30+ homer power I’m not sure he hits enough to get to it. A .280-.290 OBP with a low .400s slug in a left fielder is probably not a regular. He has to hit for a really high average to make this work. He has the bat speed to do so, but hasn’t shown the approach yet.
Cole: What do you think about the A’s essentially buying 2 lottery tickets in the first round of the past 2 first rounds (Beck and Murray)? The argument is that these are the high ceiling players that they ordinarily wouldn’t be able to afford in the open market? Is this a good strategy?
Keith Law: Good strategy if you’re choosing the right players. Beck was more of a fit for me than murray – and I do like Murray for what he is, but he’s 21 already and busy trying not to get his brains scrambled this fall.
Moe Mentum: Best biography you’ve ever read? How about autobiography?
Keith Law: Best memoir (is that the same as an autobio?) is probably Gabriel García Márquez’s Living to Tell the Tale. Simon Garfield’s Mauve comes to mind for best biography. The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks is biography-adjacent and is also an incredible read.
TREY: Do you see any other priorities for Cubs this offseason? Or is health, Hamels, and 1 or 2 elite relievers enough for deep postseason? I’m lukewarm on current OF and think they need some upgrades.
Keith Law: If they can add Machado or Harper, they should, even though it would create some temporary surplus (which they could use to add relief help). I think they’re a playoff team without that, but can and should try to improve beyond what they are.
Ken (Cleveland): am I crazy to think that the Yankees should avoid a big bat (especially if it costs us Miggy or Justus) and just start the season – Stanton/Hicks/Judge, Sanchez at C, Voit at IB, and Bird as my DH and see what we have
Keith Law: Yeah, I’d say that’s a bit overly optimistic, especially with Sanchez having shoulder surgery and the other two lacking any track record.
Arnold: Is Farhan Zaidi the right choice to remake the Giants or do we need to wait and see who brings in as GM before making that determination?
Keith Law: Great choice. Whoever he brings in as GM will be there to help execute Zaidi’s vision for baseball ops, which I think will be more analytics focused but not to the exclusion of traditional scouting.
xxx(yyy): any date night recipe suggestions to go with pan roasted pork chop?
Keith Law: Pork of any kind goes really well with polenta.
John Olerud: As an Ms fan, may I get your valued opinion on the Zunino trade? Does it seem reasonable? Completely misguided? Or just meh? For Ms fans, this trade seems important in helping to gauge Dipoto’s potential abilities in spearheading what is now a confirmed rebuild. Yes, he’s so far been dubbed “Trader Jerry”, mostly for sacrificing minor-league talent in a last-ditch effort to win. But is this just because of the mandate he had in the first part of his tenure? And do you think he and his team can successfully change course?
Keith Law: Just meh. Backup catcher for fourth outfielder. Some lesser prospects changing hands – Fraley’s probably a fourth outfielder himself, Plassmeyer maybe a fifth starter, threw a tick harder in short stints this summer than as a starter in college.
Nick: Moving forward, would you rather have Albies or Urias?
Keith Law: Albies.
Ben: Re: Boras’ comments about the draft rewarding systematic losing. If a draft is necessary (I don’t see how the owners would ever get rid of it). Why not have the number one pick go to the team with the best record that missed the playoffs, then go down by record from there, with the 10 playoff teams being the last 10 picks. Seems like this would discourage tanking, increase competitive balance, and reward teams that make an effort, but just miss out on the playoffs. Then, instead of tanking for the first pick, teams will need to give full effort to win the first pick. MLB could even market it as another “race” to watch at the end of the season. Seems like it would open up the free agent market too, since more teams have something to play for.
Keith Law: Changing the structure of the draft could improve it but won’t solve the fundamental problem that it screws the players, especially the best players in any draft class.
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: I hope you don’t mind answering this, but I know you’re open about your anxiety stuff. I got help about three years ago and I’ve been mostly stable except for a few minor blips here and there. But when I’m stable, I feel like I’m not the same person and I’m living in an altered world that I’m not sure I like. Did you experience something similar?
Keith Law: You may need more time to be in your stable periods to get used to the feeling. I do know what you mean, and yes, the world feels very different when I’m in a good place. It can be weird to have that constant hum of anxiety go silent.
Bruce: What are your thoughts on Jazz Chisholm? Is he a top 100 GUY?
Keith Law: I think he’s a potential superstar.
Allan: Would it make sense to ever make a list of “players who lost their rookie eligibility”, or would the sample be so small that you’d just tell people to refer to your pre-season rankings?
Keith Law: You have it exactly right. I wouldn’t change any of those unless we saw something physically or mechanically new with the players.
Larry: Austin Riley and Soroka get it done for Realmuto?
Keith Law: Highly doubt that.
Jordan: Hey Keith, which team do you feel should go after Realmuto the hardest this winter?
Keith Law: I don’t think any contender has a greater need for him than the Nats.
THE Average Sports Fan: Any hope for Anthony Alford?
Keith Law: Sure, there’s hope. It’s just getting late.
Jason: If you are ignorant to all candidates, is it better to vote straight ticket or not vote? I unfortunately did not make the time to research all of the candidates and elected not to vote because I was uneducated. Did I make the right decision? I know I’m wrong for not paying attention to the candidates.
Keith Law: Does anyone research every single downballot candidate? I had some very local elections here where the Democrat ran unopposed or had only a third-party opponent. Should I have abstained, even though I would say I knew nothing about the candidates beyond that they never did anything so awful that I heard about them? I’d say no. Make sure you’re not voting for a Nazi, or an embezzler, or something like that.
Hank: Can you give us some background on Mike Fast? Seems like a lot of excitement about Atlanta hiring him, but I don’t know much about him.
Keith Law: One of the first people to bring out research on pitch framing – to measure it and show its effects were real and sustainable. Great hire.
Bearry: The Rays have their catcher, but still have some big holes to fill and prospects to deal. Think they can pull in Donaldson and/or trade for a TOR guy like Carrasco/Kluber/Gray?
Keith Law: I’m confused – you said the Rays, and then you’re talking about expensive players.
Danielectomy: Which of the Jays best prospects do you see winding up impact players?
Keith Law: Vlad, Bo, and if healthy Pearson has a shot.
Matt: As an Astros fan, should I be worried about the departures of Mejdal and Fast? Any word on why they left? Career opportunities? Luhnow? The Osuna trade?
Keith Law: I think the team is worse off for their departures, yes.
Deke: When I used to bartend, there was a regular there who was a real jerk. Saw him on a political ad for a Trump-supporting House candidate (Andy Barr) and posted about it on FB. A friend who still bartends there said that was dirty play, calling him out publicly. Fair or foul?
Keith Law: If you don’t work there any more, I’m not sure what you did wrong. Had you worked there, yeah, that could be a problem for your employer.
Jay: The Cardinals seem to be in a period of stagnation. Do you subscribe to the notion a front office can go stale over a long period of time or is that for lack of a better term, “BS”?
Keith Law: I think that’s BS. The team is pretty good. Their biggest problem seems to be that they’re very good all over the diamond and thus don’t have one spot where a huge upgrade is simple and accessible to them.
Jon: Can Baez repeat his 2018 performance or will it be downhill?
Keith Law: I think he can do this again. The question I have is whether he can ever be more – you know, drawing a walk more than once a month.
Joe: Braves are probably going to have to move one of Riley, Pache, and Waters. Will you rank in order of which one is most to least likely to be traded?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with the premise that they “have to move” any of them.
section 34: Do you find baseball more boring than in the past? I do. I know the changes in offensive approach are rational for each individual hitter. But I DVR games: I started doing it so I could skip commercials, but now I hit the 30-second-fast-forward button a lot in between pitches. Are you also finding baseball to have become too slow?
Keith Law: I think there are too many long commercial breaks. We don’t need two-plus minutes of commercials for every pitching change. The game itself is mostly fine although I’d prefer more balls put in play and fewer strikeouts. But the long mid-inning commercial breaks are more damaging to the product.
RSO: Does Andujar, Clint Frazier and Chance Adams get it done for Kluber for the Yanks?
Keith Law: Andujar and two decidedly second- or third-tier prospects? Come on.
Steve: A suggestion for those reading these chats on a web browser (at least Firefox): right-click in the chat window, select “this frame” and then “open frame in new tab” or “open frame in new window”. Instead of the chat being confined to a box in the middle of the page, the chat itself now takes the full tab, is easier to read and allows more of the chat to be displayed on the screen.
Keith Law: Thanks!
B Mand: I have seen a lot of conflicting reports on Dalbec and what the future holds for him. Am I wrong for thinking his skill set is similar to Gallo, maybe with a slightly better glove?
Keith Law: He’s not Gallo. Gallo has more power, and better pitch recognition. Dalbec can defend and really throw, but his ability to pick up spin is not where it needs to be to project him as a regular.
Jeff: Why was the Japanese BCG vaccine recalled in Seoul? I thought vaccines were 100 percent safe?
Keith Law: Because of a manufacturing issue, not anything with the vaccine itself. And the vaccines were still safe – they contained more arsenic than Korean regulations recommended, but still less than 3% of the daily maximum intake considered safe. As for “100 percent safe,” nothing is 100% safe. Advil isn’t. Coffee isn’t. Most vitamins aren’t. Vaccines are safe, in that the risk of adverse effects is extremely small, and most of those adverse effects are themselves trivial.
Keith Law: Good troll job, though, dumbass. Go back to remedial biology.
gavin: Your thoughts for both Tyler O’Neill and Alex Verdugo next season? I’m sure situation plays into this, but do you still believe in both?
Keith Law: Never been a big O’Neill fan; I see too much dead-pull in the swing and approach and a below-average fielder. Verdugo I like but he has no place to play.
mike : My issue with a pizza stone is that the oven has to be on so long, that I feel like I’m wasting power/money……you ever feel that?
Keith Law: No, although most books will recommend heating up the oven for an hour or more, I often find the stone hits temperature sooner than that (an infrared thermometer helps you know).
Austin: There’s a restaurant I follow on Twitter that is misogynistic and awful to people there. Like one giant troll. But there food is BOMB and every time I’ve been there I’ve never seen them treat customers unkind. Should I boycott this place based on their social media presence even though I’ve never seen them actually portrayed like that in real life?
Keith Law: So maybe it’s just that one person running the account? I’d ask at the restaurant.
Bill: Dylan Cease – starter or releiver?
Keith Law: Starter. If he’s healthy at all, he’s very clearly a starter.
Mike: Keller – if I remember you are concerned about a 3rd pitch and he may be destined for bullpen. But what about Paddack and Bryse Wilson? 2 or 3 starter upside?
Keith Law: All three project as starters, but yes, Keller needs a better changeup. Paddack can definitely start without a better breaking ball but it limits his ceiling.
Jax: Will Benson still a quality prospect in your book? I understand his floor is quite low but he seems to have tantalizing upside.
Keith Law: I don’t know what “quality prospect” might mean to you. I am not optimistic about his chances right now.
Jordan: Have the Twins given up on Buxton? If so, I’d love to see some team trade for him and give him 500 PA next season.
Keith Law: I don’t think so. I thought Baldelli might be the ideal manager for him since their on-field skill sets are similar.
Dan: If you’re the Giants, does a 7-10 year contract for Bryce Harper make any sense even with their apparent rebuild in place? Can he be part of the next Even-Year magic?
Keith Law: No, it makes little to no sense to me.
Colin: Keith – can you ease my long-term concerns about Soroka? He looked damn good this season before the injury.
Keith Law: Stuff looked great. Tough arm action that puts stress on the shoulder. Still like him but the risk of further injury is high.
Pat: Kang has claimed he stopped drinking entirely. Doesnt that change your outlook on him?
Keith Law: No.
Big Sister: Does Ronaldo Hernandez stay at catcher? Do you like him or William Contreras better?
Keith Law: I think Hernandez has the better bat and Contreras the better defensive profile. I have Hernandez staying at catcher with some work.
Boa T.: Did Klaw really reference The System in his open? Would the Angels be better served moving Cozart to second and signing Moustakas or someone similar to play 3rd?
Keith Law: I did indeed. Moustakas isn’t any upgrade for them. Better to sign or trade for a second baseman.
Stephen: When do you think Luis Robert makes his appearance in Chicago? We thinking… I don’t know, mid April 2020?
Keith Law: Maybe? Guy has to show he can stay healthy for 20 minutes first.
Dan: Thoughts on the Farhan Zaidi signing? Surprised at all that the Giants went with such a forward-thinking President/GM?
Keith Law: I’m not surprised.
Bob Pollard: The whole “Cubs have no money” thing…do you think this is real or a Theo smokescreen for him to fly under the radar? What do you think they end up doing/what should they do?
Keith Law: The Cubs have plenty of money. The Ricketts may choose not to spend it, but they have it.
Shawn: Do you continue to use any non-drug therapies or techniques for your anxiety? What did you use in the past?
Keith Law: Meditation, exercise, lot of ‘self-care’ techniques including positive sensory stimuli – literally, finding things that calm you or provoke positive reactions in your brain for any or all of your five senses.
Todd: Could Michael Bloomberg beat Trump in 2020? Thoughts on him as a candidate?
Keith Law: I burn incense in my kitchen sometimes for that reason, mostly because baking cookies all day long is not the greatest idea for my health.
Keith Law: Oh god please no. Bloomberg is the last thing we need.
Mat Ji: Hi Keith, What do you make of Bill James’ comments and the backlash he has received?
Keith Law: I thought his comments were wrong and excessively derisive towards players (and labor in general). He’s affiliated with an MLB team, too, which makes it worse.
Pat: Mallex hit .296/.367/.406, 3.4 fWAR. Is he really just a 4th OF?
Keith Law: Yes. Dude had never had a 1-WAR season before then.
Chad: I’ve head Kyle Tucker often get compared to Christian Yelich. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I don’t see how much they have in common other than both being really good prospects. I thought Yelich was farther away from his power than Tucker is now.
Chad: Which Braves arm – Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Touki Touissant, – do you like best long-term?
Keith Law: Touki has the highest upside.
Chris: Do you think the Red Sox moved Darwinson Hernandez to the bullpen to limit his innings, or do they not think he can start in the majors?
Keith Law: Pretty sure it was to limit his innings. I would absolutely keep him as a starter for now.
Bmosc: Klaw, I saw you mention elsewhere (perhaps another chat) that Nashville was one of your favorite Minor League culinary stops. Any favorite restaurants?
Keith Law: In no particular order: Husk, Rolf & Daughters, City House, Catbird Seat, Cochon Butcher, Kuchnia & Keller, Two Ten Jack, Mas Tacos.
Michael Conforto: Why do people vote overwhelmingly in support of progressive ballot measures but not for progressive candidates? Is it just a messaging issue? Is being labeled a Democrat damaging beyond repair to some?
Keith Law: Could be. Not sure anyone knows the answer to that, since it would depend on truthful answers to polls or surveys.
Beau: Is Buddy’s AFL production a SSS or has he made adjustments since struggling in AA?
Keith Law: Buddy Reed? SSS in a hitter’s environment. Swing is still the same (not good). Which reminds me, I was accused by a Padres blog of “refusing to admit” he was better, which is always hilarious to me.
Dan: Do you believe Derek Rodriguez is a legit mid-rotation starter or more back-end? Either way I’m happy to have found a useful pitcher for essentially nothing.
Keith Law: Back-end. Very lucky on the ERA front.
Dale: Why were the A’s experimenting with Matt Olson in RF? And was that part of reason you weren’t sold on his 1B defense.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s that good a defender at first, period. Gold Gloves are stupid.
Steve: ETA on when the O’s hire a new GM?
Keith Law: Sometime before the All-Star Break.
John: Re pizza, why do you need a better oven? What’s the ideal temp?
Keith Law: For Neapolitan-style pizza, probably 800+.
Pat: Apparently Carter Kieboom showed good range and arm at SS in the AFL. Any chance he can stay on the position?
Keith Law: I saw him there, and no, he did not. Second base for me.
mike : I find the time between pitches to be the issue for me, more than the commercial breaks. The NFL can make it look like there is action, thru replay. MLB replay is shorter, so it is harder to fake action.
Keith Law: There’s a fatigue recovery benefit to pitchers taking more seconds between pitches, which is why I oppose a pitch clock and prefer cutting those ad breaks.
Hank: Ian Anderson is the pitcher Alex Anthopoulos should be least willing to trade. True or false?
Keith Law: Neither true nor false. You can make that case for Anderson, or for Touki, or even for Wilson.
Tom: Was Patrick Mahomes ever considered a prospect?
Keith Law: Sort of. I know he did some baseball stuff but it was so clear he was headed for football that I don’t think he was seriously scouted his senior year. It sounds like he made the right choice.
Jiimbo: What are your thoughts on Yusei Kikuchi? At best #2 Starter?
Keith Law: I ranked him in the free agent rankings.
section 34: Since you write so often on vaccines — I’m with you, I’m very pro-vaccine — I wonder if you have a theory on why very liberal people who claim to care about community don’t respect the concept of herd immunity.
Keith Law: Chemophobia/appeal to nature fallacy plus Dunning-Kruger syndrome (the more education you have, the more liberal you are likely to be, but then you might overestimate your knowledge in other subject areas).
Amir: Would Matt Harvey be a good fit on the Athletics on like a 1 year pillow deal? Feel like it could be a good situation for both the player and team.
Keith Law: Yep, love that idea, actually. Good call.
Santos: To Jeff the Vaccine Troll: Took me 2 seconds to google, “It didn’t immediately announce the decision as it found that the level of arsenic concentration is minimal without the potential to cause harm.
The ministry’s research showed that arsenic was from the heated glass bottle that contained the BCG vaccine.”
Keith Law: Jeff the vaccine troll is indeed just a troll. I usually ignore him, but that bullshit was worth swatting down.
Seth: Did you see Melvin Adon in the AFL? Is he more than a guy who just throws really hard?
Keith Law: I didn’t see him, talked to two guys who did (plus Longenhagen), sounds like a guy who throws really hard and we’re not sure what else.
Josh: what does Evan White look like at the MLB level? I’m worried he’s a AAA/MLB swing man
Keith Law: The 1b? Everyday player.
Dansbae: Have you given up Dansby Swanson? Looks like he isn’t a regular.
Keith Law: I have not. Still think he’ll be a regular.
HugoZ: Do you think that Casey Mize feels “screwed” after receiving 7.5 million?
Keith Law: If he would have received $10 million as a free agent – which is likely – then yes, he should feel screwed. I don’t know him at all so I am not sure of his actual feelings. I for one would be very frustrated if I were only allowed to negotiate with ESPN when my contract is up even though there might be other companies willing to bid on my services.
JR: Thoughts on how the mid-term elections turned out? I’m happy to see Dems take back the house, but the Rs gain ground in the Senate. Anything we can read into this on the chances of 45 getting voted out in 2020??
Keith Law: The Senate seats up for election this year were not representative of the body (or country) as a whole – there were few chances for the Democrats to flip them and retake the chamber. That said, I don’t think projections two years out are ever very useful in politics. Stuff changes fast.
Mitten: I’d prefer the Cubs just DFA/non-tender Russell. Just seems like the right thing to do/message to send. Giving lip service to wanting to ‘help him’, which is great. But to me, he doesn’t need to be part of the organization for that to happen.
Keith Law: I would too, but they traded for Chapman, so I doubt they just walk away from whatever value might remain in Russell.
Mike: Are you going to post your Thanksgiving menu this year? I have to contribute a dish myself and was hoping to “borrow” one of your dishes.
Keith Law: I only posted that on Thanksgiving day in the past; not sure if I do that this year since I’m not cooking for a crowd.
Ryan: If you were running the Cards would you use Reyes as a 2-3 inning reliever with multiple days off in between appearances
Keith Law: Yes, assuming he can handle that. Starting him seems well off in the future now.
Barry: How about the Angels as a landing spot for Harper? It would show Trout they are committed long term to winning and Harper could slide into the occasional DH role to better keep him fresh over the course of the contract.
Keith Law: Sure, if they’re willing to jettison Pujols.
Jeffrey: Beto runs in 2020 at this point.
Keith Law: He’ll probably run. Booker might run. Warren, Harris, and probably some others we don’t really know very well yet. And then we’ll find out some stuff about each of them that isn’t very flattering and people will freak out over details that don’t matter and gloss over negative things that should matter and I’m already losing my patience with this.
Jon: FYI: Bill James is correct. If you took every Mike Trout or Mookie off the field right now they will be replaced with other players and the game goes on; period.
Keith Law: FYI: No, he’s not, and it wouldn’t. Just look back at the replacement NFL players from ’87.
Wes: If Brendan McKay switches to pitching only, does he reach the majors sometime in 2019? Still have number 2 ceiling?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.
JR: Thoughts on Cashman being so direct in that he needs to trade Gray? Obviously, it’s the best move for both sides, but does being so public about it decrease his value?
Keith Law: I appreciate his candor. We all know it’s true. Denying it just forces him to lie to everyone.
Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Shocker – Mets are not going after Harper or Machado. With that said, can you envision a more moderately priced road that BVM can take to get this team to contention in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes, but it would require 1) steps forward from a few young players and 2) going all-in on short-term fixes that cost the team in the long term.
Aaron: There is clearly a discrepancy in the way you and some other outlets value the jays farm system. I tend to side with your ranking of the system mainly because outside Vlad, bo and Pearson there is just not a lot of upside. There are a lot of guys who seem to project as average to below average regulars. Is that essentially your take on their prospect pool?
Keith Law: That is almost precisely how I see their system. Guys like Biggio, Smith, Reid-Foley, Alford, Tellez – the team may rate them highly but I’m offering you a more balanced view that reflects what I’ve seen and what other teams think.
Sam: So an administration that derides “Fake News” just used a doctored video from InfoWars as justification to revoke a reporters WH access. Cool.
Keith Law: Yep. America in 2018.
xxx(yyy): what is your favorite 80 grade cooking item/tool in your kitchen these days? What about an 80 grade technique you use?
Keith Law: My Japanese santoku. Technique? Not sure. I cook lots of ways all the time.
Jennyfer: Any hope that the Dems get better at messaging? Trump is the fucking worst and so is most of the GOP, but they somehow get the “liberal” media to talk about e-mails and a caravan instead of all of the Trump corruption and access to health care.
Keith Law: The Democrats as a party have been poorly run for a decade or more. Losing in 2004 was kind of the first sign and yet the leadership continues to offer more of the same.
Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Keith, I really appreciate you sharing so much about your issues with anxiety. I struggle lately with focusing on specific tasks for long periods of time. I contribute a lot of it to taking on more responsibility (professionally and family wise). Is there anything that you’ve done to increase your ability to focus?
Keith Law: If you read about the flow state, you may find some of those techniques helpful. I recently reviewed a book called Deep Work that also offers good, functional tips.
Dazed and Confused: Bloomberg may not be good, but how can you get worse than Donald?
Keith Law: I hate that idea. We shouldn’t just settle for “not Trump.” There are real, major problems facing our country and our planet – climate change, overpopulation, sectarian violence, terrorism, pandemic risks. health care, etc. It’d be nice to find a leader with real ideas and the capability to execute them.
Andy: Travis Lee and Matt White were free agents due to a loophole in 1996. They BOTH received over $10 million.
Keith Law: Yep. And I think MLB revenues have gone up a tad since then.
Jared: Is Brandon Woodruff a starter for you? If so, does he project as middle of rotation or back end?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter.
Chris: Has Julio Urias already exceeded your expectations in his comeback, even if long term his outlook is greatly reduced?
Keith Law: No. I had no expectations for him on the field.
Jared: Would a Schoop for Sonny Gray swap make sense? Both have been good in past, but struggled last year. Change of scenery for both?
Keith Law: I like that idea.
section 34: Klaw, we were agreeing so nicely until you disparaged Matt Olson’s defense. His B-R range factor was easily the best in the AL at 1B, well ahead of the second-best semi-regular 1B (Ronald Guzman). B-R had him worth 0.8 dWAR. So far as I can tell he was the ONLY AL 1B with positive dWAR in 2018. And, not that it counts, but he looks smooth doing it. Will you re-evaluate your evaluation?
Keith Law: I don’t find defensive metrics useful for evaluating 1b defense and never have. So, no, I won’t.
Felix: Joe Biden is currently the frontrunner to be the Dem nominee in 2020. A safe choice, but just another tired old white guy who will likely be nominated because the rest of the current interested Dems is a minefield.
Keith Law: And how often is the front-runner 24 months out the actual candidate? I’d guess less than half the time. Can I bet somewhere on it not being Biden?
Drew: I’ve battled anxiety my entire life but I don’t think I ever really realized it until I turned 40. Makes me feel a little dumb when you step back and understand how this giant elephant in your brain could sit there an got unnoticed for most of my life. What was your first step in getting treatment? As in, do you just google “anxiety doctor” or did you find a specific type of clinic? I got some Xanax but kind of hate it as a treatment. I get anxious at work more than anywhere else, I can’t be bogged down with drugs. Thanks.
Keith Law: Started with my primary care doctor and then got in to see a therapist shortly afterwards.
Chris: I know you have an interest in languages. Have you ever used Duolingo? Any other tool? Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have used it. It’s fun, but I don’t think it really teaches the language, just some vocabulary.
Jerald: Overpopulation has always been a problem that I think is glossed over too much. How can we deal with it. Is it as simple as providing wide spread birth control in the 3rd world in an attempt to slow things down in those areas until infrastructure can be developed to support their current populations?
Keith Law: Increasing access to birth control would help – but so does empowering women around the world. Women who have the opportunity to work and earn income also end up with greater reproductive choice, and thus have fewer kids. Regardless, however, we have to find a way to feed 8-9 billion people, and provide them with clean water, and stop warming the planet. It’s not small, but with one party denying climate change even exists, we’re not close to working on a solution.
Mick: Any Japanese stars coming to MLB in the near future that approach Ohtani’s talent?
Keith Law: Not that I’m aware of. MLB regulars, yes, potential stars I don’t think so.
Josh: Seems like so many teams are tanking/rebuilding next year in the AL. Could we have 4 teams 100+ wins in the AL alone?
Keith Law: I hope not. Some other team – the White Sox are really in prime position – has to see the opportunity to make a big move and pounce. They could be a 90-win team this year with realistic improvement from young players already there and the right acquisitions from outside.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you as always for all of your questions. Next week’s chat will likely be Friday rather than Thursday due to travel but I will make an announcement if it’s sooner. Enjoy your weekends and thanks to everyone who voted for science and reason this past Tuesday.