Klawchat 10/31/18.

Keith Law: Every time just like the last. Klawchat.

Dean: Mr. President, everyone in this room is now dumber from having listened to you. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Keith Law: Just going to suggest that one way to stop a President who thinks he can change the Constitution on a whim is to vote for the opposition party on Tuesday.

DaveAlden53: How is Jahmai Jones doing at second base? Is his bat a better fit for that position?
Keith Law: He was fine there when I saw him in the AFL but never sufficiently challenged. The bat would obviously play better there than in LF/RF, since he wasn’t going to play center in that organization.

DaveAlden53: The Brewers added Tyrone Taylor to their 40-man roster. Can he play a role with the big club in 2019?
Keith Law: Extra outfielder? He really hasn’t performed – a .321 OBP in Colorado Springs as a 24-year-old is not going to cut it.

Tom: Let’s say it was physically and financially possible to change all ballparks so that they played identically to each other. Would you be in favor of doing this?
Keith Law: No, I love the fact that we have unique playing fields & dimensions – it sets us apart from other sports.

JT: You’ve long been an advocate of going to an experienced manager while still being a fresh face with new ideas: are you happy with the Blue Jays’ selection of Montoya?
Keith Law: Absolutely – heard nothing but great things from his colleagues in Tampa Bay and he has a great resume.

Hal: What candy are you handing out for Halloween?
Keith Law: Nothing special – we just get some generic mixed stuff from Target, definitely Reese’s cups in there, because I will eat the leftovers. I didn’t dress up this year for the first time in a while because my daughter is just generally less into the holiday this year.

Andy: Serious question, if the Mets decide to trade DeGrom or Syndergaard to jumpstart a rebuild, would the new GM sign off on it?
Hal: Kimbrel looked vulnerable at times during the playoffs and during the season his Ks were down and BB way up. If you were Boston would you let him walk? What would you offer him?
Keith Law: I would let Kimbrel walk, yes.
Keith Law: Mets GM: who knows – anything involving those guys feels like a conflict of interest. If you’re another GM and BVW calls to offer to trade you one of those guys, don’t you wonder if he has information on them that you don’t have that might discourage you from accepting any offer?

Wally: Initial thoughts on the Trevor Rosenthal signing ?
Keith Law: I can’t offer thoughts on a deal without any contract terms.

Andy: What is pache’s future value in your eyes?
Keith Law: He’s at least 10+ runs a year in centerfielder, maybe 15-20, with plus raw power and, at the moment, a low OBP. That still makes him an above-average regular, but the ceiling is limited by the lack of patience at the plate, and he did seem occasionally overmatched at the plate in the AFL.

Ozzie’s helmet: Is there a way to prevent that Ozzie Albies becomes Rougned Odor?
Keith Law: Sure, but he has to be a part of that process too.

Jordan: Do you think the Mets have the pieces to go after JT Realmuto this winter? And if they do, what would they have to offer for the Marlins to seriously consider accepting the deal?
Keith Law: I think other teams would be able to top the Mets’ best offer – but I also think it would be a terrible idea for the Mets to trade prospects for Realmuto.

Joules: How reluctant do you think the Marlins would be to move JTR within the division?
Keith Law: The correct answer would be “zero.” That mentality is stupid, and outdated, and hurts no one but your own team.

Brian: There has been a lot of glowing post-season wrap up stuff on Spencer Howard. What have you heard about him?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him. Lot of average stuff. Was way too old/experienced for low-A this year.

HOTLANTA: Do you think an offer of Pache, Gohara, and Allard would be enough to land Realmuto?
Keith Law: Probably, if Anthopoulos has lost his damn mind.

Jordan: Obviously we need to see results before seriously judging, but what are your thoughts on the Mets hiring Van Wagenen as their new GM?
Keith Law: I said this yesterday on the BBTN podcast: I know BVW a little, but not enough to know what kind of GM he will be, but I will say that the Mets’ process here has been a farce. The owner’s son hired his buddy, and it’s a guy with zero experience anywhere in a front office – never scouted, never worked in player development, never worked in analytics, never worked as an AGM under in that area working on contracts. I literally have more relevant experience than BVW does, and I do not believe I am qualified to jump in and be a GM. Yet they chose him over one of the best and most qualified GM candidates in the game, Chaim Bloom; and they covered their bases by interviewing two persons of color, one a woman, and then booting them both after the first round. Sometimes a flawed process produces a good result, but that doesn’t absolve the owners here for the flaws.

Fish: Is the Orioles’ hiring of a President/GM going to be a circus again, or is there any indication that there’s been a positive change there?
Keith Law: Nobody knows what’s going on. I generally don’t chase those rumors anyway, but I’m surprised I’ve heard basically nothing on Baltimore.

Zihuatanejo: From a talent/development standpoint, are either of Smith or Ruiz ready to suit up for the Dodgers in 2018?
Keith Law: Smith probably is. Ruiz is not.

Adam Trask: Your brand is built in part on letting people into to your personal life and political views. Why would you react negatively when a follower asks what you’re doing in the offseason or about your eating habits?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t. I think you totally missed the joke.

David: Since the Padres forced him out of position by signing Hosmer, trading Myers seems logical—but how much of his contract would they have to eat to do so (and get something useful back in return)?
Keith Law: He’s not a $20 million/year player, which is what he’s getting paid in 2020-22; he might be worth 60% of that, even if he’s returned to first base (he’s a better fielder there, but the positional value is also lower). So that’s my very rough, outside guess – they’d probably have to offer to pay 1/3 to 2/5 of it.

TP: Favorite MLB and MiLB cities for food?
Keith Law: Woof, that’s a long list for MLB. For the minors, though, Nashville is the obvious standout. Louisville is also pretty close; Raleigh-Durham, if we count that as one destination, is up there. I haven’t spent enough time in Austin but its reputation would put it in the same class.

Nick: Do you really see the Yankees staying out of the Harper/Machado sweepstakes?
Keith Law: No.

Mike: Have you seen Nate Pearson since he returned? Any thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Yes, please see my second AFL post for a full report.

Jeff D.: Should the Dodgers be VERY worried about the investigation into their Cuban signees and the laws that may have been broken? MLB penalties, actual DOJ penalties or arrests?
Keith Law: Better question for a lawyer. I’m not qualified to answer and haven’t even asked anyone in the game about the story (why would they tell me anything?).

CJC: Why wouldn’t the Yankees just play Gleyber at short next year while Didi rehabs? Who would you have play 2nd?
Keith Law: That is exactly what I would do. Gleyber can play short. You can find a second baseman to fill in for a bit. Maybe it’s Tyler Wade.

Stephen: What would a fair extension look like for the Dodgers and Kershaw, given what he means to the franchise, their place on the marginal win curve, and his declining velocity? Add two years and 70mm to current deal? Or is that just too high even for them?
Keith Law: Oh god no – that’s WAY too much. He’s not a $30 million a year guy any more.

Mike: It seems like teams are getting better and better at scouting amateur players. Is it still necessary to have as many levels in the minor leagues as we currently do?
Keith Law: I don’t see the connection there – we need the lower levels for the raw high school kids and Latin American free agents who sign as teenagers.

Ian: Any thoughts on what the Rockies should do in 2019? Go all in, trade Arenado, or muddle through with strange choices and over the hill vets (clearly the likely outcome)
Keith Law: They can compete again for sure, but would need to make some hard internal decisions (like accepting that playing Desmond hurts the club, or that paying for relievers isn’t working). I think they’re a potential playoff team as currently constructed, helped by Arizona likely taking a step back and the Giants almost certainly starting to rebuild.

Pat: Carter Kieboom ready to be opening day roster for Nats?
Keith Law: No.

Jesse B: If you had to guess, educated of course, which of these three will have the best pro career, Lucius Fox, Jazz Chisholm, and Andres Gimenez?
Keith Law: Ranked best to worst: Chisholm, Fox, Gimenez.

Bort: Thoughts on Mejia for next season? Does he get 400 at bats?
Keith Law: He should play a full season – there is no good reason why he wouldn’t.

Mac: Do you think Spencer Adams has a legit shot to earn a spot in the White Sox rotation out of spring training?
Keith Law: No, nor should he. He has marginal stuff and struck out only 11% of batters he faced in AAA.

Nate: Does Hudson have a shot at making the Cardinals rotation, or is he destined to be a career reliever?
Keith Law: I think reliever is most likely the outcome for him, but they could certainly try him again as a starter.

Kyle: After AFL is over, do you pay any attention to the other winter leagues (Mexico, ABL, etc)? Is there a MiLB level that those leagues are equivalent to?
Keith Law: There isn’t, not for AFL either, because the range of player calibers top to bottom is much wider in those offseason leagues than it is in a typical minor league. I don’t really pay attention to the winter leagues after the AFL but will occasionally get scouting reports on players who looked substantially different there.

Logan: Will Kolby Allard improve enough from a command and secondaries standpoint to actually be a 4th/5th starter on a solid team?
Keith Law: He is a 5th starter for me now. He’d need more velocity or life on the fastball to be much more than that.

Nate: Know it’s early, but what kind of upside does Jenista possess?
Keith Law: I don’t see what position he can play for an NL team. He might be an everyday DH, but that’s not an option with Atlanta.

Gabe: You don’t think Kimbrel will get the QO? Seems to make sense to keep the team together one more year while they still have Sale and before J.D. can opt out.
Keith Law: They might offer it, but I wouldn’t. The trend lines on him are largely pointing down and the history of one-inning relievers is that their peaks are short and end abruptly.

Chester: Are Happ, Contreras, Schwarber all flops?
Keith Law: No. You could wait a minute.

Radiohix: Did you get a look at Darwinson Hernandez? what do we got here?
Keith Law: He’s also in the AFL post to which I linked earlier.

Rich: Starting to play light strategy board games with my young son. Did your daughter’s logic, critical thinking, or general math ability improve by playing those types of games?
Keith Law: Who knows? She enjoyed them, I enjoyed playing with her, and it didn’t involve staring at a screen. That’s a win for me.

Mac: What’s your take on the launch angle revolution? Do you think it’s here to stay or do you think baseball will revert back to: little guys put the ball in play and big guys swing for the fences?
Keith Law: It’s here to stay at least in part, but haven’t we always known that guys with flatter swings produced less power, and guys who swing too far uphill tended to swing and miss too much and also fail to produce the power they might physically possess? Now we just have the data to fine-tune it. The one thing I think might change is that we might see teams like the Dodgers become more discriminating in whose swings they alter – that there are just some players who become worse off by trying to optimize their launch angles for power because they become sufficiently worse hitters for contact.

Larry: Is Peter Alonso’s defense now passable like Ricciardi says?
Keith Law: It was bad in the AFL. His hands are fine, but he’s pretty big and not agile. His bat would play well at DH, but again, not an option.

Junior: Are you impressed with what Billy Eppler has done with the organization?
Keith Law: Yes, overall I think he’s done a great job to date, especially with the mandate to try to win now.

Ben: Why would the Mets hire a GM with no front-office experience?
Keith Law: Because Jeff liked him.

Joe: Interesting that each side thinks that it’s ok to change the constitution for one thing but not for the other when it comes to gun control/immigration. The argument on each side is even the same – that it was not the framers intent when they originally passed the law. I would prefer they follow the constitution in both ways. Both sides are arguing out of both sides of their mouth.
Keith Law: Well, I guess talking out of both sides of your mouth is better than talking out of your ass, Joe.

Eric: who do you think has a better career, Touki Toussaint or Shane Bieber and why?
Keith Law: Give me Touki. Better stuff, better athlete, still a year younger too.

Drake: How much of an improvement do you think we see in Devers next year?
Keith Law: I believe he will end up a star. That might be 2019, it might be 2020, but I firmly believe it’s coming.

Tony: Is Yu Chang anything other than a spare infielder? Or, put differently, in an organization other than Cleveland could he be a starter?
Keith Law: Maybe a starter in some orgs. I think he’s kind of a fringe regular.

Clayton: Kershaw’s less than stellar performance in the post season is mostly just SSS noise, right?
Keith Law: That is just noise, and better competition. What is not noise is a full year of pitching at 90-91 with less power to the slider too.

Justin: Did you get a look at Andy Young (STL) when you were at the AZ Fall League? Does he have a future as a big league UTIL guy?
Keith Law: I did and yes, if not a little more.

Chris Verdugo : Do you think the era of Donald Trump is going to motivate future Americans to become more aware and concerned about politics in general, and if so do you think the Republicans are just waiting for their demise as voters become younger and younger and side with more progressive policies?
Keith Law: I think it has alerted more people, probably on both sides if not in equal numbers, to the importance of getting involved and voting.

Patrick: Thanks again for the chats, Keith!
Do you ever read/review your daughter’s reading choices? As my son gets older, I struggle with how much to direct (approve?) his choices.
Keith Law: Yes, I do, but she also has yet to ask to read something I wouldn’t approve.

Tom: Have you read Salt Fat Acid Heat or seen the Netflix show? If so, what do you think of them?
Keith Law: I own the book but haven’t read it yet.

Patrick: Keith, your thoughts on Fox WS announcers? Would viewers be better served by PBP person that regularly works games?
Keith Law: I muted them the whole way through.

Andrew: In 2010 my friends and I went to Pitt for a Mets/pirates series. One game was rained out early and we walked around downtown Pitt. A woman saw us in Mets gear and struck up a conversation. She was from LI too and invited us to Squirrel Hill pray at a synagogue. We said we weren’t Jewish and she said it didn’t matter we were welcome anyway. I’ve always remembered the exchange and how kind and welcoming the woman was. I am really at a loss as to what happened this weekend
Keith Law: I am too. I am not Jewish, but lived very near that synagogue and interacted very often with members of the Jewish community in Squirrel Hill for two years, and never felt anything less than welcome even though I was an interloper twice over (I was a grad student, and obviously not a permanent Pittsburgh resident). The normalization of white nationalism the last three years has encouraged domestic terrorists.

Rich: I don’t know whether Kim Ng would be a good GM or not. I hope she gets a GM job sometime soon and thrives. Do you think teams interview her as a token candidate with no intention of hiring her? Seems like she has interviewed countless times and never gotten serious consideration.
Keith Law: I believe she has been used repeatedly to satisfy MLB’s unwritten Rooney rule.

Hyce Brarper: A Marlins beat writer claimed the price for JT hasn’t gone down, would still insist on Acuña. He has to be kidding, right?
Keith Law: He may not have been kidding but that ain’t happening.
Keith Law: Also, the price for any player goes down as he approaches free agency. Take an econ class, dude.

Jake: Have you seen Brusdar Graterol in person? Ace potential?
Keith Law: I have not. I’ve talked to multiple scouts about him, and the consensus was more high-end closer potential than starter potential, at least right now.

Jake: Kohl Stewart hasn’t seemed to live up to his potential so far, but his ground ball rate kept him around the majors… Do you think he ever develops further into a quality starter?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, unfortunately. I was way too high on him as an amateur/young prospect. His stuff regressed.

Patrick: If Burnes and Woodruff make Brewers rotation, do you see Counsell/Stearns letting them throw deeper into games than this year’s crop of starters? I guess I’m asking, “bullpenning” conditional on starters, or do you think an ongoing team philosophy?
Keith Law: I believe their bullpenning plan, like Tampa’s, revolved around the actual personnel on the pitching staff.

Bailey: How come you don’t care about all the food that is wasted on Top Chef?
Keith Law: Begging the question. And this has come up before: the food is not wasted.

CJC: Thoughts on Corbin at $20mm per year?
Keith Law: Sign me up for that.

Lilith: Really random question, but could you ever see a team installing a differently colored field like Boise State does in college football? Would it be breaking any rules? … I mean, Loria had to have thought of it, right?
Keith Law: I actually don’t know if there’s a rule against it, but I bet MLB would step in very quickly to quash it.

ScottyD in Downingtown: Is June 2020 a reasonable ETA for Brendan McKay to arrive in Tampa?
Keith Law: He’s ready to pitch in the majors now. That’s a long time to hold him down.

Nate: Any chance the Yankees non-tender Didi?
Keith Law: I would say no chance.

Andy: Have you ever gotten into symphonic metal, like Nightwish? It’s much less guitar driven than black metal, but better vocals, while still being instrumentally interesting.
Keith Law: Not them specifically but I pretty much like any kind of progressive or experimental metal if it’s focused on musicianship rather than speed or merely being ‘heavy.’

Kevin : Season’s over. Lets talk HoF. I know he is no longer eligible, but if he was would you vote Dwight Evans into Cooperstown?
Keith Law: Yes, I would.

Aaron G: In response to Joe re: gun laws. It says “well regulated militia” right in the text. Literal interpretation: go join a militia (currently similar to the National Guard) if you want to own a damned weapon of war.
Keith Law: Also, I haven’t heard anyone who matters suggesting that, say, the President could unilaterally revoke the Second Amendment. I’d like to see fairly strict laws on who can own guns, but I would stand between any President and an attempt to rewrite part the Constitution without going through the actual process for amending it.

Garrett: AA has already tried to pump the brakes on expectations that the Braves are going to spend big, but I look at that as just talk. But given how their farm system is balanced at the moment, aren’t they the ideal team to go for Harper? Teams are never 1 player away, but this signing would be as close too that scenario as I could imagine.
Keith Law: Do you think Liberty would authorize him to spend big like that? I rather doubt that myself. I think he’ll be allowed to make big moves, but I can’t imagine he gets to spend like that on one player.

Ira: What is your solution for illegal immigration and how to deal with current illegal residents?
Keith Law: “Solution” implies a problem. Immigration is a net positive for economies; we want immigrants to come here to contribute to our economy as workers and consumers, and should create paths for them to do so in ways that encourage them to come and work as soon as they arrive. The idea that immigration is itself a problem is both deeply ignorant of the history of our country, including our economic and cultural dependence on immigrants, and a longstanding method of creating a common enemy to use fear to drive the shrinking white majority in the country to the polls. The Hidden Brain has recently had two excellent podcasts on this topic within the last three weeks.

Brent : Did you get a chance to see CWS’s Burdi in the AFL? Any insight to how he’s look after TJ? Thanks.
Keith Law: I did not but Eric Longenhagen did and said he looked like he did pre-TJ (which is good).

Jennyfer: Nobody serious on the left is calling for the 2nd amendment to be thrown out. We’re calling for common sense restrictions. The nut in Pittsburgh was a “good guy with a gun” until he wasn’t because he did everything legally.
Keith Law: That’s been under-reported, too – the weapons he used were all purchased legally.

donn: thoughts on smoltz in the booth? Looks like we have a huge issue in sports these days with older commentators complaining nonstop about the way basketball/baseball are these days and how the game isn’t the same as it was 20/30/40 years ago. Smoltz, wilbon, and many others spend all their time complaining rather then adjusting and embracing. It becomes very annoying to listen to. Is there a solution?
Keith Law: The solution is to put different people in the booth – and you know what? sometimes that means a booth with no former MLB players in it. It can be a bonus, but it shouldn’t be a requirement.

Jay: Will Durbin Feltman be in the majors for most of ’19?
Keith Law: I think that has to be the plan; you don’t draft a college reliever that high unless you think he’s close to MLB ready.

Zihuatanejo: I’m sure you’ve already answered this question this season, but — what kind of prospect (if any) was Max Muncy prior to this year? Was this kind of breakout foreseeable at all?
Keith Law: No, it wasn’t. He didn’t have game power because his swing didn’t create it. Unless you knew he’d changed his swing and that it would be this effective, I don’t see how you could have distinguished him from a few dozen other low-power corner bats like him.

Adam: Is Tatis one of those players that will be called up 2 weeks after the season starts or due to his recent injury do you see him debuting later in the season, say September call up range?
Keith Law: I’m guessing he comes up more in June or so. He did miss a lot of at bats.

JT: Will any of Dalton Pompey, Devon Travis, or Anthony Alford ever establish themselves as a solid regular?
Keith Law: At this point I would say Alford might, the others probably won’t. Alford hasn’t lived up to my expectations for him but I hold out some hope because he is so inexperienced for his age.

RSO: Did you happen to see Brodie Van Wagenen’s interview with Mike Francesa? It was cringe worthy.
Keith Law: I only saw the Metsmerized summary. I was glad to see him say that the Mets have drafted well, which they have, although I don’t know if he mentioned that those three college arms he liked were all CAA clients (all good picks anyway … CAA reps a lot of very good prospects in every draft).
Keith Law: Again, my criticisms are not directed at BVW. He’s a bit of a blank to all of us on the outside. It’s the process that leads to his hiring over obviously qualified candidates from within the industry that I am criticizing.

Mike: The Yankees probably don’t bring back Robertson or britton. Who do you see them targeting for bullpen help?
Keith Law: Why not bring one or both back?

J: This somewhat anticipates top 100 and team rankings, but I’m wondering where you stand on Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg now, and if either has any 2019 MLB legs.
Keith Law: As much as I like Corey Ray, I have a hard time believing the 2018 power spike is meaningful when 1) scouts kept telling me he was selling out for that power and 2) he still punched out 30% of the time. There is still some hope for him and Erceg (who also had back trouble in March and then got hit in the helmet by a pitch in April), but neither has developed anywhere near as I expected. I think this has generally been an issue with Milwaukee – their best hitting prospects have stalled or regressed. Trent Grisham looked like a non-prospect to me in the AFL.

Beau: Do you think Austin Allen can be a starting MLB catcher?
Keith Law: I do not. Solid backup.

Craig: If the A’s sign Lowrie, as Rosenthal said they want to, what could Barreto fetch in a trade?
Keith Law: Barreto’s value is at an all-time low, I think.

Jacob Wohl: I’m in trouble am I not?
Keith Law: It sure looks that way. Given the hate and misinformation you’ve spewed, I’m okay with that.

Frank: Any chance the Cubs try to trade for Whit Merrifield and play Baez at SS fule time?
Keith Law: If I’m a Cubs fan that is the last thing I want them to do (the trade part – I’m good with putting Baez at SS full time). Pick up Hamels’ option, re-sign Chavez, and go hard for Machado or Harper.

Mike: I’m 40 yrs old, and thinking of learning guitar. Is it a long road to learn ?
Keith Law: I started when I was a little kid, then picked it up more seriously when I was 13. Not sure what would be involved to learn it now – but you should do it anyway. It’s fun, and it’s very good for your brain to learn a new skill like that.
Keith Law: Also, chicks dig it.

Eric: Just wanted to say thanks for you not “sticking to baseball”.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I don’t plan to stick to baseball now or ever again.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat but I do have a few notes before I skip out. My ranking of the top 50 free agents this winter will go up Friday, but I’ll be on a brief vacation to help my parents celebrate their 50th wedding anniversary, so I will be scarce on social media through Sunday. (That also likely means the stick to baseball post will be postponed.) The next chat will be Thursday, and I’ll probably do another Periscope chat next week too. Also, one addition to a question I was asked last week in chat and yesterday on the Periscope: Another movie I’m really looking forward to is The Favourite. I saw the trailer yesterday before A Star Is Born and I am all in.
Keith Law: Thanks as always for showing up and asking so many questions. Have a safe and fun Halloween!