Keith Law: Monuments put from pen to paper turns me into a gutless wonder. Klawchat.
Mitchell: Pre-season you raved about Paddack and said he has mid-rotation upside. Has what he’s done so far increased his upside in your mind?
Keith Law: No, nor should it, really. He’s been great, but that’s what a mid-rotation prospect with a plus-plus changeup should be doing at that level. There really aren’t that many guys with more upside than “mid-rotation” in the minors.
silvpak: yusniel diaz has continued his progression this year, putting up dramatically improved strike zone recognition (35 walks and Ks in 189 abs vs. 45/102 last year in 439), with upticks in slugging as well (albeit in tulsa). any changes in his long term outlook?
Keith Law: He’s healthy now, which makes a big difference. I don’t think there’s plus power in there but I do think he can hit for average with a high OBP, more in line with the player the Dodgers thought they were signing than what they’ve seen in the last two years.
Chris: As a Mets fan, Im in favor of trading deGrom and Thor. The team does not have enough talent to be a true WS contender even with those guys and should use the few valuable assets they have to build up the the org for years to come. I find the argument to keeping those guys fundamentally flawed bc I don’t see the Mets as more than a WC team even when firing on all cylinders.
Keith Law: Especially deGrom, whose value is probably at its peak, who has already blown out once, and who is a free agent a year sooner than Thor is.
Chris: Any thoughts on the Mets player development issues? Sporadic playing time for Amed Rosario and Dom Smith is so puzzling to me.
Keith Law: Same. Their handling of both kids has been weird, possibly deleterious, since they were recalled.
Dave: Klaw: Hope you and your family had a great Fourth. My question is about bunting against the shift. I don’t understand why lefties won’t at least attempt to drag one down the third base line. Is there some unwritten rule against this? I know it’s hard to bunt, but the occasional try might make teams think twice about playing their third baseman just left of second.
Keith Law: I assume you mean to try to push one down the 3b line, and I agree that yes it’s hard and yes it’s still worth trying. The short-term payoff is a free base. The long-term payoff is less of a shift. It’s worth having such hitters practice push bunts to see who can pull it off.
bernie: Do the Brewers have the logical pieces to go after a deGrom, or another type of arm who could be a Game 1 playoff starter? Do you see a great team in the NL? Who would you favor for the NL pennant right now?
Keith Law: Dodgers and Dbacks look like the best teams, Cubs not far behind, Brewers behind them. However, adding a #1 starter would certainly improve the Brewers’ odds of winning the Central which would in turn improve their odds of advancing (vs winning the wild card, even to host, and then playing a coin flip game). I think they have the pieces to get a deGrom but might be reluctant to deal that much talent from their system, given their payroll constraints.
Chris: Hi Keith, Mitchell White’s stat line has been pretty bad at AA, is there something physically wrong with him at this point?
Keith Law: He hasn’t really been healthy since spring of 2017.
Matt: If you’re the Nats do you start to Sell and retool for next year? What are the moves?
Keith Law: No.
Andres (Atlanta): Always a fan of your musical taste. Since it’s now July, what are your top 3 albums of the year so far?
Keith Law: I tend to think in terms of singles rather than albums. If you look at my playlists, you’ll see certain artists pop up again and again – Courtney Barnett, Wooden Shjips, Django Django, Snail Mail have all appeared a few times with songs from their latest albums.
Matt: Have a question on your view of Democratic Socialism. Is this a viable economic path or something where elements of it hold merit and value but the overarching principle flies too much in the face of free market? I just wonder how legitimatelt socialist democratic socialism is.
Keith Law: If you saw the Hannity graphic outlining the ‘horrors’ of Ocasio-Cortez’s platform, it bore little resemblance to actual socialism. Neither she nor any DSA candidates I know of are proposing nationalizing industries, for example. They are proposing an expansion of the social safety net, which is a progressive/liberal policy, one that socialists would embrace but not something that is inherently socialist. It’s also a policy shift worth discussing, since there’s evidence that, say, a healthier workforce is a more productive one and thus leads to more economic growth, but I don’t see the right having this discussion at all.
BE: The beat writers wrote about the Tigers shifting their approach to more athletic high upside guys in this years draft. Was that your take?
Keith Law: That’s not accurate, at least not based on who they took. Meadows is the one possible exception, a good athlete but not a huge upside guy, and he has a hitch in his swing he’s going to have to try to smooth out.
smell the glove: How reliable are defensive metrics? Which ones, if any, do you consider useful? I’ve seen smart people I respect all over the map with their opinions on this topic.
Keith Law: I discussed this in my book. I look at UZR and dRS and think they are directionally correct if the samples are large enough, certainly accurate at saying what happened but lacking the predictive precision we desire from other statistics.
Mike: Any idea what’s happened to Jose Albertos this year?
Keith Law: Looks like the yips to me.
JR: When you were in Europe, how tempted were you to just not come back given the buffoon we have for a President? Kidding aside, how were you treated when people found out you were American? With sympathy? bewilderment? anger? Just curious what more civilized countries think of us these days.
Keith Law: A lot of dismay, certainly. I apologized a lot for our policies and how we’ve treated other countries/leaders.
Greg: Hearing anything about Carter Stewart signing or not?
Keith Law: They all sign unless they fail a physical.
jake: what’s changed this year about justin dunn
Keith Law: A year older, holding his mechanics together a little better
Brett: Zac Lowther have any type of ceiling in the Bigs, or is this just him being too old for his level?
Keith Law: Low ceiling guy but may end up a good back-end starter. Huge extension in his delivery, high spin fastball, so hitters don’t see it even at 88-89.
Kyle: When is your midseason prospect list coming?
Keith Law: After the All-Star Break. Same time every year.
HankQQ: Any thoughts on the unsigned 1st rounders?
Keith Law: No. They all sign unless they fail a physical.
Jake: What are your thoughts of the Royals farm system after the draft/international signing period. Still bottom of the barrel?
Keith Law: Yes, still poor.
Tom: If the Braves were to trade Pache, what do you think the return would have to be right now
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re trading him.
Donald: Nick Madrigal is starting off at Winston-Salem. Do you agree with the aggressive placement?
Keith Law: I do.
Mike: Would you classify this year as a success or failure for Christian Pache so far?
Keith Law: Do I have to?
Jake: Where would you rate Singer, Kowar in terms of the Royals best prospects?
Keith Law: Lee is clearly #1 in that system. Kowar, Lynch, Singer, probably in that order, are behind him now.
Mike: So … Max Muncy! Thoughts?
Keith Law: Not really. We get these one-year flukes a lot.
Rob P: Is Javier Baez the most exciting player in MLB right now? Whether it’s his ridiculous swings, him stealing home or making an amazing defensive play he always seems to have a daily highlight reel.
Keith Law: Extremely fun to watch. Flawed, obviously. But for sheer pleasure of watching, I’m not sure I can name anyone better.
Chet: I would assume that Shane Bieber is here to stay for the Indians, but is he the front runner for AL ROY now?
Keith Law: Gleyber is out for ten days. He’s not dead.
Will: Thoughts on Mozeliak’s comments on Dexter Fowler?
Keith Law: To borrow a line from Pam, inappropes.
Mike: Is Johan Camargo the real deal?
Keith Law: No. Been pitched around a lot, inflating his BB and OBP.
Zach: Has the uptick in numbers from Hunter Greene been accompanied by an uptick in stuff? Think the Reds should/will move him to AA before the end of the year?
Keith Law: No, he was always throwing hard – he was 97-101 when he struggled, and there isn’t really an uptick from there. I see zero reason for them to jump him to AA from low-A – that would be totally irresponsible. He should go to high-A first.
Dave: Has Kebryan Hayes increased his stock this year? Looks like a legit starting 3B in majors. If develops more power, look out
Keith Law: This is the player I think most people, myself included, thought he’d become when he got out of the Florida State League (which seemed to really kill any power at all). I don’t think he’s a 20 HR guy but I think he’ll hit, get on base, have enough doubles power, and play grade 70 defense.
Brian: What is your best guess as to why the Cardinals – by all accounts a progressive, resourceful organization – chose not only to hire Mike Matheny, but retain him for years? I know superficially (very superficially) he’s gotten good results, but what do you think is even the non-persuasive rationale for what the Cards’ FO sees in him?
Keith Law: I have no idea. His flaws are very evident on the surface, and become more so whenever he tries to explain his bad decisions. There are so many better options out there.
Trevor: What kind of prospect would you expect back for Brad Hand? Kyle Tucker? Mejia? Groome?
Keith Law: You’re not getting Tucker or Mejia. Groome is out with TJ well into next year, so I imagine he’s available.
Ryan: Hey Keith, Pavin Smith is having a disappointing yet interesting year. Great BB and K rates, more power than last season, unimpressive batting average. What are you hearing about his season so far? Thank you!
Keith Law: talked to a few scouts who saw him and asked me why he was a first rounder. They may be overreacting to the poor performance, but it’s not a great sign.
Mike: If you were Alex Anthopoulos, how would you handle this deadline?
Keith Law: If you can improve the team by trading guys on the margins who aren’t part of the future – the Lucas Sims types – then do it. Trading significant prospects for short-term help would be really stupid, though. I’m shocked whenever Atlanta fans suggest it. You really want to trade a potential stud like Pache for a two-month rental?
Ivy: Do you believe in the whole “manager has lost the clubhouse” thing? If so, has Buck lost the O’s, or do you think they’re finally playing down to their talent level?
Keith Law: I believe a manager can lose the clubhouse; I don’t think it can ever be the primary explanation for a team underperforming. The roster just wasn’t very good coming into the year, and the years of overperforming, which involved a lot of good fortune, are probably over.
Matt: When assigning a grade to a prospects speed, is it as simple as just timing home to 1st/2nd sorting that way, or are there other considerations that go into that grading?
Keith Law: You still want to see if the player is faster underway. Some players are slow out of the box and faster going first to third. Jacoby Ellsbury always gave me bad times home to first even when he was a visible 7 runner.
Matt: Is Manny Machado really this bad at shortstop? His defensive metrics are horrible.
Keith Law: 740 innings is a very small sample for defensive metrics.
Thomas: In what order would you rank the Tigers’ top arms in their system? (Mize, Manning, Faedo, Burrows, and Perez). I assume Mize is 1.
Keith Law: Mize, Perez (if healthy), Burrows, Faedo.
Patrick: in your professional opinion, at what age is recommended for young pitchers to begin throwing breaking balls (curve, slider, etc)? I’ve heard too early can have a huge impact on elbow issues as they grow.
Keith Law: That’s a hypothesis that I don’t think is proven either way, but I do favor the advice of just having kids throw fastballs and some simple changeup so they learn a consistent throwing motion and can work more on locating. A 13-year-old who can spin the ball will end up using it all the time because hitters can’t hit it, and then he’s not learning anything either.
Dodgers top outfield prospect : What’s the difference between Alex verdugo and yusial Diaz ?
Keith Law: Very different profiles. Verdugo has more power and speed. Diaz looks like a more steady avg/obp type.
God: Tim Tebow, All-Star. I win, KLaw loses. Carry on.
Keith Law: A bunch of Tebags tweeted me about this, as if putting the washed-up QB was anything other than a publicity stunt to try to get more fans to go to the game. It’s sad that a minor league All-Star game isn’t reason enough for fans to show up (and it’s in Trenton, where I go all the time, a great park that’s super easy to get to).
tallmrj: What are your thoughts on some of the O’s class A pitching prospects like Hall, Lowther, Bauman, Hanifee, etc…? They have had a good first half.
Keith Law: Saw Hanifee on Tuesday and will write that up after I get my Futures Game preview post done. Lowther I mentioned above. Baumann is a power arm but probable reliever. Hall is the one I keep trying to see, but for whatever reason that team isn’t great about putting scheduled starters out there.
Jeries: Does Nick Madrigal have any chance at developing power like other short guys (Gennett, Albies, etc)?
Keith Law: Very little chance.
Carl: Are you encouraged at all by Matt Manning’s pitching as of late? Strikeouts keeps racking up and the walks have been held in check.
Keith Law: He walked 5 just a couple of starts ago, so, no.
wide awake in america: Since you’re a smart guy who’s figured out a lot, maybe you can help – have you figured out sleep? Do you have trouble sleeping on the road? Do you have trouble turning your mind off? I’m failing in this, and I hate to resort to medications for sleep (though I sometimes do). (If you need a baseball hook, pretend I asked about Mike Napoli. And this is a sincere question, you’re wise on many subjects.)
Keith Law: Read Matt Walker’s Why We Sleep. And don’t use those medications. They don’t work.
J: With the standard small sample size issues aside, can Tigers fans be excited about the improvement from Daz Cameron, Issac Paredes, and Matt Manning?
Keith Law: I’m a big Cameron fan. He’s not his dad, but I think we can all accept that and move on to appreciate what Daz is – at least a solid regular, maybe more, even if he’s never a superstar. I think the Tigers would be thrilled if Daz became a solid regular for six years.
EG: Any thoughts on Bryce Harper’s mediocre (by his standards) season? Batting average way down
Keith Law: Quality of his at bats seems to have declined the last month or so. (Bear in mind I was on vacation too, and missed about eight nights of games. I’m not sorry.) I don’t know specifically what’s eating him, but I wonder if the team faring poorly has him pressing to try to do too much.
Jake: What sort of return do you think the Royals could get for Whit Merrifield right now? Org depth? 4.5 yrs of control.
Keith Law: Org depth, maybe one mid-tier prospect. He’s 29 and the power surge from last year looks like a fluke now.
Dave: Did you envision Nola would become this good?
Keith Law: No, he’s really improved his secondary stuff since he signed. CB and CH both substantially better. Love watching him … I haven’t been to many games at CBP this year but if he’s pitching I’m more interested in going.
Logan: What’s your opinion of O’Neil Cruz?
Keith Law: He’s very tall.
Jeries: Who did you like better out of HS, Greinke or Carter Stewart?
Keith Law: I never saw Greinke out of HS – that’s before my time.
Marissa: Hi Keith. I am wondering your thoughts on David Peterson. I see that he’s not in the top 100 prospect lists and wondering if you agree with that or not.
Keith Law: He was on mine in January.
Old Tom Morris: I see you mention the yips often, and it’s such a good way to describe what you’re describing. It makes me wonder, do you play golf? Like golf? Watch golf? Or is TV golf a good nap, spoiled?
Keith Law: What is golf?
Jason: Re traveling in Europe, I know you were in Italy. Needless to say they have their own issues and really aren’t ones to talk.
Keith Law: Aside from the tu quoque fallacy you invoked, Italy’s social and environmental policies are way ahead of ours.
Rick Hahn: How impressive has Luis Gonzalez been? What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: Everyday player. Not impressive when a college player tears up low-A, though.
Greg: Well aware of how it works with first-round picks usually signing unless physical issues, but that’s the question about Carter Stewart. Pipeline and others have reported medical concerns, and I was curious if you had heard anything.
Keith Law: I won’t report medical concerns about players, if I know them, until after the player has signed. Doing so could jeopardize the player’s leverage and any potential scholarship – and, legally, I’d better have proof beyond any doubt that what I heard was correct. So I just don’t.
Guest: Do you believe Jonathan India can handle SS at the big league level?
Keith Law: No, but I’d send him out as a SS and see how it looks.
John : Generally a big fan of Inciarte, but it feels like the Braves are wasting so much of Acuña Jr’s value in left. Is it just too difficult to get a comparably valuable player to Ender, but with tools shifted more towards the bat than fielding? Also keeping Pache and potentially even Drew Waters in mind for the next 4 years that Ender is under contract.
Keith Law: I have argued since last fall that they should shop Inciarte.
Randy B: Is Kyle Wright showing the same potential for mid-rotation starter with a half season+ under his belt?
Keith Law: A little more than that. I’d like to see fewer walks, but he’s also essentially gone from the SEC to AA.
JC: Its very #scoutingthestatline but, Touki Toussaint’s BB/9 continues to trend downward (in the good way) & was recently promoted to AAA. What’s the outlook for him?
Keith Law: Potential #2 starter, still improving. Was very raw when he was drafted but had athleticism and a golden arm. Now he’s showing feel for three pitches and his control has gradually improved over a long sample now.
PhilG: Hey Keith what games are on your tabletop recently?
Keith Law: Tried Rising Sun, which is good but i think really plays much better with five than with three. I just got a review copy of Carthage to try out.
HugoZ: If I’m a fan of a contender, is there a case for hoping my team’s players won’t make the all-star team so they’ll have the extra days of rest?
Keith Law: Absolutely.
here’s your future: In the year 2030, there will be ____ MLB clubs? And will the divisions or playoff structures be radically different?
Keith Law: I could see 32 teams. I don’t think we have the markets to support more than that.
Jeries: Is Luis Robert’s thumb injury one that can linger throughout his career?
Keith Law: That would really surprise me, but it has certainly ruined his 2018. I’m hoping he’ll be in the AFL; that’s twice now that he’s gone on the shelf a day before I was scheduled to see him.
Larry: Atlanta is one of the few teams that have zero reported international signings. They’re still allowed to sign guys up to 300k this year, but it doesn’t look like they have yet. Is that strange a few days after the deadline? Are they planning to trade their money?
Keith Law: That isn’t strange. A lot of lower-dollar signings aren’t done immediately or aren’t widely reported.
Bill: Is Gavin Lux becoming a guy?
Keith Law: I’m a Lux fan, but bear in mind that the Cal League South is a great place to be a hitter. Rancho is a hitter’s park, and he’s got 9 games at Lancaster already (16 for 44, 2 hr, 6 doubles). So I don’t want to get too far ahead until he shows some of this is real when he gets to Tulsa.
trevor: will Tebow ever play a game in the majors?
Keith Law: I have zero doubt in my mind that he will. Probably in September, because the Mets are so bad, and they’ll decide this is a good way to get attention and more fans to the park.
Max: Why is Cavan Biggio not getting much love at AA? Is he being overshadowed or is he not that good a prospect?
Keith Law: He’s not a great prospect; he’s not a good defender at 2b, and while he has power he’s not that great a hitter, lacking good bat speed. He’s also kind of stopped hitting in the last five weeks or so after the crazy start.
Carl: Have you watched GLOW on netflix?
Keith Law: No. Currently watching The Leftovers and belatedly catching up on Archer (S6).
Jimmy: Dbacks system seems way too light for a Machado deal … pundits keep saying Duplantier would be main piece … ughh why would the Orioles trade w Dbacks ? Their system is so light
Keith Law: There is less than no chance the O’s people clear Duplantier, who is hurt again with a shoulder (excuse me, bicep) issue, given their history of killing guys with trivial medicals.
BassmanUW: Re: Ocasio-Cortez and the DSA, I think one point of confusion is that the DSA does have a long history of pushing for eventual nationalization of industry. Whether or not that’s still their official viewpoint, which on its own is hard to tell, they clearly have taken a bigger tent mentality to support candidates who are more in line with European Democratic Socialists, where focus is primarily on social safety net.
Keith Law: I wonder if calling themselves “Social Democrats,” as some of those European parties do, would help. Probably not. They’re going to be pilloried as communists, when their policy proposals are worth a reasonable discussion given the rising issues of economic inequality, loss of jobs to automation, and continued rising costs of health care.
Ed: Do you think MJ Melendez is behind all of those Royals prospects you listed?
Keith Law: I’m sure he is.
Anthony: Do you ever attend Saberseminar?
Keith Law: Once, but it has conflicted with something else on my calendar the last four years. I am not going this year.
Scott B.: Any Wilmington/Newark food recommendations?
Keith Law: Cocina Lolo is my favorite in the area. Two Stones is very good, as is Terrain just over the line in PA for finer dining. Also love de la Coeur, which has two locations in Wilmington.
Keith Law: Oh, and Bread & Buttercream in north Wilmington is an incredible artisan bakery with real European breads.
Jimmy: Nolan Gorman been raking … way too early … but still shocked he fell into Cardinals lap
Keith Law: I’m not shocked, given his spring, but I think they have to be thrilled to get that kind of upside at that pick.
Andy: Shohei is being brought back to hit. Will hitting hurt his elbow more than just resting? It seems the ship has temporarily sailed on surgery.
Keith Law: I really don’t know the answer to that – whether swinging the bat poses any additional risk to the elbow.
Patrick: Probably should have put my name in the first time I asked: Is what CC Sabathia has been doing the past few years smoke and mirrors, or is this something sustainable for him (at least through this year?)
Keith Law: I think it’s sustainable. Plenty of pitchers have good second acts at lower velocity by learning to work more with changing speeds and improving their command. (Plenty more can’t do it, of course.)
Matt : Thanks for taking the time to chat Keith. What’s your take on a guy like Ronny Mauricio? 17 years old, great start so far, except he still has 0 walks in over 60 at bats now. Any reason to be concerned?
Keith Law: Dear god, no. It’s 60 AB, and he’s not just 17, he’s barely 17. He’s 21 months younger than Jarred Kelenic. Stop looking for reasons to worry.
Jason: Considering how against the Hosmer signing you were, would a quantity package for Thor make sense for the Padres? They have a lot of players who need to be protected this year and next
Keith Law: No, it wouldn’t, not with what they have coming.
JB: Read somewhere that Bo Bichette has looked better at SS this year. Chances any better than 50/50 he can remain at SS, at least for the first several years of his big league career?
Keith Law: He hasn’t looked better at SS this year – I’ve seen him, talked to scouts who have. I really don’t think he stays at short.
Dan: Zach Eflin’s results look good but what about the scouting? Do you think he can be a mid-rotation guy in the long run?
Keith Law: Yes. Throwing harder across the board this year. Fastball is better, slider is playing up with more velocity (breaking stuff has long been his big weakness).
Guest: Any reason why Jon Gray got sent down? His FIP reflects that he still isn’t pitching terrible, and his K:BB numbers are as good as ever
Keith Law: FIP doesn’t do well with pitchers who are giving up a lot of hard contact – its assumption breaks down on those arms. And Gray was giving up a lot of hard contact. Some of that is the ballpark, of course, and I think if he pitched anywhere else we wouldn’t even be discussing this. But I wonder if the demotion was a mental breather too, since as you said, there’s nothing wrong with his stuff and he’s still doing some things well.
Billy: What is the best way to pay for college and healthcare for everyone? Are you comfortable with paying over 50% in income taxes, which is what a lot of economists believe it will take to implement a system close to what the DemSocs are promoting?
Keith Law: I’d much rather see a reduction in our defense budget before we get to histrionics over tax rates – but if you’re asking me would I pay higher income taxes, enough that I’d notice the difference, to help provide universal health care? Yes, yes I would. (And the cost of college is even more convoluted – by making loans so easy to acquire, we’ve enabled colleges to raise tuition at rates beyond inflation for two decades.)
Garrett: Keith do you buy this hitting from Taylor Ward? I know it is the PCL league but he also hit well in Mobile early in the year. Could he be legit?
Keith Law: It’s the PCL. I’m out.
Mikey: Jared Kelenic continues to do nothing but hit in the GCL. do you feel he should remain there or move up to Kingsport or even Brooklyn by the end of the year?
Keith Law: I’m all in on him, but he’s 19 so moving him up is a great idea.
Mike: Hey Keith, what kind of return should the Jays expect for Happ?
Keith Law: Best SP on the market? Granted that’s a backhanded compliment this year, but they should hold out for a good package, one with two real prospects in it.
James: Tatis Jr is pretty awesome. At what point do the strikeouts become worrisome?
Keith Law: As I said earlier, don’t look for reasons to worry. He’s 19 in AA, one of the youngest players above A-ball, and his K% was only really bad in April – he’s at 26% since May 1st.
Rob: Do you think the Cubs have buyers remorse on Yu Darvish? Granted he’s been hurt but he has also said some very stupid things.
Keith Law: I would guess they do, more for the injuries than the stupid things, which were stupid.
Michael: After Eloy and Robert, which White Sox outfield prospect do you like the most going forward?
Keith Law: Adolfo.
Brett: You’ve always said to be patient with Buxton. Is it okay to officially think this is what he will be offensively for the majority of his career?
Keith Law: Buxton has barely played this year. I’m curious what you “officially” think he’s done this season.
RJ : Was there ever a chance Manny Machado stayed with Baltimore after the 2018 season? What he’s said and hasn’t said over the years, I always figured he wanted to play in a big market.
Keith Law: Never. I don’t think they were ever going to be able to afford him, and I have long gotten the sense he didn’t want to play for that coaching staff either.
Zach: Love how a certain GM can be anti-porn but pro-second-chance-for-a-child-abuser. Party of family values!
Keith Law: Indeed, the anti-porn stuff is weird, not backed up by actual science, and I think may violate employment laws (you can’t force employees to listen to your religious crusades at the work place). Also, aren’t the Royals the last Pride Night holdouts? I may have forgotten a team.
Skip: Your hatred of Tebow is comical. Methinks you would be driving the Kaepernick bandwagon if he decided to try baseball, as his politics are more to your liking.
Keith Law: If Kaepernick tried to play baseball now, I’d judge him exactly as I’ve judged Tebow: as the player he showed himself to be on the field.
Logan: Any specific reason the Twins are having so much patience with promoting Royce Lewis?
Keith Law: He’s 19. I’d say arguing for a promotion to high-A is impatience.
Mike: Would a package of Kyle Wright, Luiz Gohara, and Cristian Pache be enough for Syndergaard? 4 years of a career 2.59FIP is very intriguing.
Keith Law: Three years, no? That’s a lot of talent to give up, though.
A big dumb idiot: I’m likely just blinded by Gleyber and Soto, but are top prospects better earlier in their careers than they used to be?
Keith Law: I feel like we’re seeing more guys come up at 21 or younger and succeed immediately than we did even ten years ago.
Leo: When talking about reliever usage, or overuse, is it more important to look at the number of games pitched or the amount of innings pitched?
Keith Law: Both. Throwing 90 innings in 90 games – thus with fewer days off – isn’t the same as 90 innings in 60 games.
Jeff: I know he’s old for his level (high-A), but is Laz Rivera a potential diamond in
the rough for CWS?
Keith Law: Saw him for about 8 AB too. Three horrendous strikeouts to start it out – totally overmatched by a LHP with some deception – but I saw him hit a (Laz) rocket out the second game. Probably worth bumping him to AA, since he’s 23, to get a better test of his abilities. I doubt he’s really that much of a prospect, but he does have bat speed and obviously more hand strength than I first realized.
TJ: Klaw, at what point in the draft do GMs start thinking, “I would be happy if this guy just became a decent major league player”?
Keith Law: If they’re honest with themselves, by the second round.
Brian: How many people out there realize that Daz’s dad was a superstar for a few years?
Keith Law: Not enough? That’s just my perception.
Hedonismbot: Justus Sheffield has had some sold starts lately. Think he makes a start in the majors soon?
Keith Law: Maybe in September. I’m a big fan though.
Santiago: any standouts on the Aberdeen roster?
Keith Law: Adam Hall is interesting. Some arm strength guys in the bullpen. That’s it.
Juan Soto: Did you underestimate me? (from 1 to 10, how much?)
Keith Law: No.
Touki Toussaint : Why am I not getting any love on top 100 lists?
Keith Law: I think you were on mine more than one year.
Adam: Type of prospect return you expect for Rasiel Iglesias? Top 20 sort of guy?
Keith Law: Top 20 in baseball? No. Much lower.
Chris: I’m wary on Amed Rosario’s bat. Long swing with no discernible pop. You buying long-term?
Keith Law: I am.
Ricky: Do you see Carter Kieboom turning into a solid MLB player?
Keith Law: Yes. More likely off SS. Can hit, great instincts.
DRL: Hi Keith. Love your baseball/prospect knowledge, but absolutely can’t stand your blatant disrespect for our president and your liberal rants on twitter. (not that any of that matters, we don’t all have to agree), but Baseball, Americas past time is made up of way more hard working republicans than the hand out wanting liberals. I think if you were to keep you’re political opinions to yourself, you would probably do better. (don’t have to post this, just wanted you to hear). Thanks.
Keith Law: I’m doing just fine, snowflake. Maybe keep your advice to yourself next time.
Dr. Bob: Is it fair to say that Tebow has outperformed expectations (at least, at times) but is still a long ways from ever being a real prospect?
Keith Law: You could. I don’t concern myself with that – he’s either a prospect or he’s not, and I say he’s not.
Hedonismbot: How much longer do the Yankees run Bird out there? He’s supposedly healthy now and had looked terrible.
Keith Law: For all the time he missed, he hasn’t been that bad. I don’t think he’s a problem for them right now.
Pat D: Have you heard that a Trogdor board game will soon be hitting Kickstarter? I’d imagine you’ll at least try that out, right?
Keith Law: I have. I think they’ll have a demo at GenCon.
Noah: What’s your thoughts on Luis Medina? Potential top of rotation upside?
Keith Law: Big upside, but I’d like to see some success from him before we get that excited.
Scott: A’s are in a weird spot. Definitely playing well, almost no chance of the playoffs, The old guys (Lowrie, Davis) are carrying a lot of the load. Should they just ride this season out with what they got and hope Puk and Cotton are good for 2019?
Keith Law: I’d shop the ‘old guys’ because they really aren’t in an economic position to be complacent.
JR: Given there is nothing going on in the sports world on the days before and after the All Star game, when MLB be smart to move the MLB draft to those days to get more media attention? Or would teams be against pushing it back because that also delays getting the players signed and playing in your organization by at least a month?
Keith Law: Everything you said there is correct. It would boost attention, but it would hurt the short-season teams. Also, what do players whose seasons ended in late April do for two months? Do you go play summer ball and risk injury or some drop in performance? I’d really like to see draft night be an MLB holiday, with only day games and thus nothing at night but the draft.
Mark: Does Corey Ray still project to be a solid MLB player? I wish the average was higher and the K% was lower, but at least he’s not striking out more than last year and the BB% is up. The physical tools still seem quite good.
Keith Law: Yes, but probably just a solid regular, which is a disappointment for me since I thought he had star potential at Louisville.
Keith Law: I had a scout tell me he’s back to no trigger/toe tap. He needs something for timing and weight transfer – at least a small tap and stride, maybe a full leg kick.
Rob: Favorite metal album of the half-year? My vote is Rivers of Nihil.
Keith Law: Tribulation.
Kevin: Any suggestions for getting a 4 year old to learn to read?
Keith Law: Just read with him/her. Kids learn when they’re ready. We never pushed our daughter, even though you all know I’m an obsessive, heavy reader, and she got there on her own time. She’s read well ever since she got the knack.
David Rave: How was your vacation? Where’d you go?
Keith Law: Dublin, Monaco, Genoa (my cousins live there), Milan for a night, back to Dublin. Ambitious but we had certain boxes to check, including my daughter’s desire to see the second smallest country in the world, and the fact that my cousins are in Genoa but not near a major airport. It was great and also exhausting.
Eric: Yankees are a pride night holdout, which as a yankee fan is disappointing
Keith Law: Yes, that is very disappointing.
Schwemm: You mentioned the top 4 in the Royals systems earlier. Too much swing and miss for Matias?
Keith Law: And not enough patience. If anyone can find a player at 19 or younger in low-A who had a season like his, please send it over. Gallo walked more, and you see what he’s become, for better and worse.
Jeff: Jim Bowden normally has some wacky trade ideas this time of year. He recently said CLE should trade Bieber and Mejia to CIN for iglesias and Garrett. Does he think he’s still running the Reds?
Keith Law: That’s a comically bad offer for CLE.
Brian: Whats something you now believe about evaluating players that you did not believe 5 years ago?
Keith Law: I think I’ve been too dogmatic on bad deliveries. I’m much more open-minded now about them. Also, I’m looking more at guys with Goldschmidt-like profiles – no big tools, but quiet approaches, good swings with enough loft for line-drive HR power. That’s why I never dismissed Hoskins as a prospect – he didn’t have a clear 6 on the scouting report but did a lot well and things just really worked at the plate.
David: Hi Keith. Dealing with a significant other who has always had anxiety. Seems worse now, and particularly after birth of child, and worried it is impacting her view of me. In your experience is that possible? How best to deal with it.
Keith Law: If she’s willing to get help, even counseling for the two of you, that’s a good start. You can’t help someone with mental illness who doesn’t want to be helped, though.
Joe: Any signings or non-signings surprise you in the draft? Or alter your evaluation of a team’s haul/picks? (with the deadline is nearing..)
Keith Law: Ask me next week. We get these “he’s not signing!” things every year and then everyone but one or two guys in the top ten rounds ends up signing.
Peter: What are some of the big takeaways you have heard from scouts on the talent on the Cape this summer?
Keith Law: League just started two weeks ago. It’s way too soon for that, with a month or so left.
Hedonismbot: Are you a fan of Castles of Mad King Ludwig? If so, any helpful hints? Definitely has been a hard game to pick up and teach, but it looks like a great game.
Keith Law: I’m not, but I want to try the Palaces standalone sequel game, which works with identically-sized tiles.
Ray: Random player from the past question: Kal Daniels. Why did he retire so young? Injuries? He had some really good season!
Keith Law: Injuries. I loved that guy.
Grant: Do Vladdy and Eloy get healthy in time for Futures, assuming they’re on the rosters?
Keith Law: Neither.
Robert: Anything positive to report on what you saw from Blake Rutherford?
Keith Law: No. Weak contact over and over.
Jay: Have you tried Istanbul on iOS? Enjoying it quite a bit. Have you played the physical version?
Keith Law: I loved the physical version, have the app but haven’t tried it yet. Still grappling with the Scythe pre-release alpha. I got 99 points in one game, and still one of the bots beat me with 102. I said some bad words.
Travis Toots: Anything you see in Devers that you think needs a tweak or adjustment? Not in panic mode like some others at all, just curious if you’ve noticed anything that he needs to work on in particular besides just experience
Keith Law: Not in the least. Going to be a star.
Igiloo McDaichly: There’s a school of thought I’ve seen advanced online that suggests that player contracts should be described as “bad” for the team, because that’s the fans siding with the team over the player in regards to compensation, and owners are billionaires anyway and can afford to pay players way more than they are currently making. Is that a reasonable critique, in your opinion?
Keith Law: Player opt-outs? Those are bad for the team. If you’re speaking more generally of fan sentiment against paying players more, then I agree but I think that’s a bigger and more complex issue of education.
re: DRL: Tell DRL I am a 80-hour a week working Democrat who loves your baseball and political takes. Tell him to trash his lazy stereotypes.
Keith Law: And really, what I say on Twitter is a fraction of what I believe about our current political environment.
Ray: Did you attend college with Rivers Cuomo? Just a random thought I had while listening to Weezer recently.
Keith Law: He went after I did.
trout and harper: What did you think of Trout and Harper right when they broke in? Did you have a preference? Are you surprised Trout is THIS good and Harper is a tiny bit stagnated? (Obviously still a star)
Keith Law: Had them 1-2 as prospects while they were eligible. I thought Trout was a superstar, but would really never suggest any player would become Willie Mays, as he has.
Keith Law: OK, that was extra long but after two weeks off I thought it only fair to answer more questions. I will be back next week to chat, and the week after as well, on the day that the top 50 prospect rankings go up (probably the 19th). I have two book signings coming up, July 14th at Politics & Prose in DC and July 28th at the Silver Unicorn in Acton, MA. Thanks as always for reading and for all of your questions – I’m sorry I only get to a small fraction of them. Keep an eye out for my Futures Game roster preview tomorrow morning!