Stick to baseball, 6/30/18.

I’m back from a European vacation that took us to Dublin, southern France, Monaco (my daughter really wanted to see it), Genoa (to visit my cousins there), and Milan. I ate a lot of gelato, which is the most important part, isn’t it? Before I left I did file one Insider piece, the annual top 25 players under 25 list, and please read the intro because as usual many people didn’t.

Over at Paste, my review of Merlin, the really awful new game from Stefan Feld, also went up while I was gone. Feld has designed several games I love, including The Castles of Burgundy, so this point-salad mess was a huge disappointment.

Book signings! I’ll be at Politics & Prose in Washington DC, with my friend Jay Jaffe, to talk baseball and both of our books on July 14th at 6 pm, and will be at Paul Swydan’s new bookstore The Silver Unicorn in Acton, Massachusetts, on July 28th at 1 pm (waiting for the link but it is confirmed). I will also be at the Futures Game in DC on the 15th.

And now, the links…

Comments

  1. Regarding cryptocurrencies, Zawinski said it so well I have to quote him at length:

    ‘Bitcoin and blockchains lash together an unusual distributed database with a libertarian economic model.

    People who understand databases realize that blockchains only work as long as there are incentives to keep a sufficient number of non-colluding miners active, preventing collusion is probably impossible, and that scaling blockchains up to handle an interesting transaction rate is very hard, but that no-government money is really interesting.

    People who understand economics and particularly economic history understand why central banks manage their currencies, thin markets like the ones for cryptocurrencies are easy to corrupt, and a payment system needs a way to undo bogus payments, but that free permanent database ledger is really interesting.

    Not surprisingly, the most enthusiastic bitcoin and blockchain proponents are the ones who understand neither databases nor economics.’

    https://www.jwz.org/blog/2018/05/today-in-dunning-krugerrand-news-2/

  2. Two admittedly obtuse questions that I don’t know how to address. First, how can we be mad at the pharmacist for not doing their job but also encourage border agents to not do theirs? Second, why should we believe that vaccination is safe and effective but also not believe hype around gene-targeted cancer therapy? I don’t have these conflicts in my mind, but I can’t find the way to otherwise persuade someone who might – if someone were to argue in this way, I don’t know that “false equivalency” would do the trick. I’m vexed!

    • To speak to your second question, I would use the argument that we have over 200 years of evidence that vaccines are safe and effective (I’m using Edward Jenner in 1791 as my start date for vaccines) and the only significant study against has been retracted for inaccuracies and numerous unmentioned conflicts of interest. Gene targeted cancer therapy has only been around for the last decade or so, and as a result we have far less empirical evidence and long term data with which to work. Therefore skepticism seems more warranted. The first question seems far more tied up in judgements about obeying authority and letter of the law vs. spirit of the law.

    • A Salty Scientist

      Your first question speaks to the difference (IMO) between *normal* jobs and law enforcement jobs. Any system of laws is based upon moral judgements, and simply *doing one’s job* has not been an excuse for obeying certain orders. Law enforcement agents frequently have to make their own judgements on the job, and their judgement should be open to scrutiny in a free society. Holding law enforcement (and military, etc). to a different standard is not necessarily hypocritical.

      I’m better equipped to answer you second question. First, there’s a large body of scientific evidence that vaccines are safe and effective. Contrary evidence has not held up to scientific scrutiny (and has been frankly falsified in the case of the vaccine-autism link). The science of gene-targeted cancer therapy has not withstood the same scrutiny, and the biological complexity of cancer makes this a much more difficult problem than infectious disease. That’s not to say that cancer genetics and genomics is not a worthy field of research. It’s just that the field is relatively young and there is much basic biology that has to be understood before moving on to translational studies.

    • Who is “encouraging border agents to not do theirs?” The debate is over ICE’s role, not the decisions of individual agents. Rational people believe separating children from their families and putting them in concentration camps is inhumane. The analogous situation with Walgreens would be if the company declined to offer the medication in question at all its pharmacies.

    • Thanks for your responses!

  3. The article on targeted cancer therapies tries to address a number of issues but does a very poor job differentiating them from each other.

    1. Targeted cancer therapies only work for a very small percentage of the population for a few reasons. One is that they it’s a relatively new field and there are a limited number of drugs available. Another is that these are usually second line therapies used after chemo/radiation/surgery, and many types of cancer respond to traditional therapy before needing to try targeted therapy.
    2. The claim that immunotherapy isn’t targeted is misleading, and this critic is clearly using it to manipulate his stats. Merck’s Keytruda is leading the immunotherapy field because of the extensive work they’ve done on finding mutation profiles that are most likely to respond to the treatment.
    3. The issue with doctor’s giving the drugs to people outside of the approved uses happens for two reasons. One is compassionate use/right to try.These are patients with no other options so the doctors find the most promising trial drug and ask the drug company if they can try it. The other reason (which is unacceptable) is poor education, and the entire industry needs to do a better job here. Plus the government needs to crack down on the companies that allow their sales people to market their drugs for unapproved uses, it does happen and should come with stiff penalties.
    4. The criticism of superlatives used at conferences is ridiculous. These are passionate people who are excited about the work they are doing and wouldn’t be working on these projects if they didn’t believe they had the potential to make a huge impact.
    5. The article doesn’t mention that good targeted therapies typically have much more mild side effects compared to chemotherapy and radiation because they are attacking the tumor in a much more selective fashion.

    We have made huge steps forward in therapies to treat and cure cancer over the last few decades and will continue to make progress going forward. Targeted therapies are a piece of the puzzle along with immunotherapy, chemo, radiation and surgery. Articles like this are not helpful in educating the public on the successes and shortfalls of the field. The doctor they are highlighting is basically acting as a professional troll, taking legitimate criticisms of the field and amplifying them to an extreme.

    • A Salty Scientist

      I largely agree with your points, and this comment is not specifically directed at cancer research, but the problem of how the popular news media covers scientific stories. There are a lot of perverse incentives that lead to a *hype* problem in science reporting. Part of this is the fault of media outlets themselves. There are very few journalists with the scientific training to understand what they are reporting on, so some hyperbole may be unintentional. Some is probably intentional too–sensationalism sells. Maybe it has always been this way (yellow journalism is not new), but I feel that the online media is more susceptible to over-hyping stores (i.e. the clickbait phenomenon).

      Scientists are not blameless. Playing impact factor games and chasing the the glamour mags (Science/Nature/Cell) can lead to exaggerated claims of the impact of the work, with the same exaggerated claims getting amplified into the popular media. I do not know what the solution is. Self policing by scientists is what we have now, but when scientific debates spill into the media, the public is often left more confused (“Scientists are constantly changing their minds, so why bother listening to them…”). Increasing public scientific literacy would be the most helpful, but I don’t see that happening anytime soon.