Klawchat 6/14/18.

My latest Insider post looked at which teams just drafted their new #1 prospects.

Keith Law: You look good when your heart is on fire. Klawchat.

DJ: Is O’ neil Cruz an infielder? Top 100 guy this time next year?
Keith Law: I highly doubt he plays anywhere on the dirt other than first base, and I do not think he’s a top 100 guy this time next year.

Kevin S.: Tim Tebow has struck out, popped up or hit a ground ball in a full two-thirds of his plate appearances this season. Can we please stop talking about him being a league-average hitter in AA or saying that he nearly projects as a major league reserve player, as BP recently did? Just stop the madness.
Keith Law: Every time he has a hot weekend, there’s a spate of crap articles saying he’s actually not awful, but no credible prospect outlet has ever fallen for this. He still has one of the highest strikeout rates of any full-season player this year – and nearly everyone above him is way younger than he is. (Pity poor Gareth Morgan.) But the Mets are going to call Tebow up, because that is what the owners want to do.

Tom: Steamer has Juan Soto as the 13th best hitter in the majors RoS by wOBA, sandwiched between Judge and Donaldson. Is that extremely optimistic or do you think Soto is already capable of that? Does he even keeping playing everyday with Eaton? I, personally, don’t see how he couldn’t.
Keith Law: Projection systems can only use the data that are available, and Soto has under 400 pro PA above rookie ball, total. I doubt any system would be reliable working off such a tiny sample of data on a player.

John: What are some college programs that treat their pitchers the right way? We tend to hear only about the bad ones.
Keith Law: Florida, Vandy, and LSU all come to mind right away. There are some smaller ones that just don’t get press … Nate Pearson was very well handled at the College of Central Florida, but of course that’s not a school you will hear about unless they have a top prospect.

Donald: Obviously Max Muncy isn’t this good, but can he be an above average (or even average) everyday player? The eye seems great, and he lifts the ball.
Keith Law: An average player, sure. I don’t think he’s going to sustain a 46% hard-hit rate (via Fangraphs), which would put him right outside the top 10 in baseball if he qualified.

addoeh: Do you think Jonathan India will pass Brian Jordan as the best player with a country for his last name? To be honest, I haven’t done a lot of research on this, only checking Ricky Jordan, Mark Portugal, and Al, Derek, and Greg Holland.
Keith Law: I can’t believe you’d diss Tommy Burkina Faso like that.

Rob: Thoughts on Tyler Stephenson’s season? Does he have a chance to be a top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: If he’s a catcher, he’s a top 100 prospect. I would say the majority of scouts I’ve asked think he’s not a catcher in the long run – he has arm strength, but a long arm stroke, and is a poor receiver. And then the question changes to whether he’ll hit enough to be an impact guy at a position like first base, and I would say the jury is still out on that. (I know the Reds believe he’s a catcher, and I think he’s still too inexperienced to give up on him.)

Rodney: Is my love for Matt Thaiss justified? He’s always got on base, but his 2018 HR total already exceeds 2017’s. Can he be an everyday player for the Angels next season?
Keith Law: He’s in Salt Lake now, a great hitters’ park. I don’t think this power surge is real, not at sea level.

Adam: Worried at all about Albies or is this downswing simply because hes like 12 years old and playing Major League Baseball? Has he shown he can adjust before?
Keith Law: What he did in April was never likely to last.

Adam: What should the Braves do with Fried? Its obvious the team likes Gohara more. Should he be in the pen or traded?
Keith Law: I prefer to see him starting in AAA and waiting for an opening than have him come up and barely pitch out of the pen.

Lyle: Eric Filia, while being something like the 6th-10th best prospect in the Mariners system and is probably in the 20s in the Red Sox system, still seems like a big overpay for a pitcher the Red Sox basically just wanted to get rid of. Thoughts?
Keith Law: No position really, but I do think he can hit and has major league value.

Brian: Keith, I find myself heading to THE BOARD on Fangraphs as well as MLB’s Top 100 pages quite often and was wondering if you’ve been giving thought (or your editors have) to having your rankings somewhere on ESPN. I realize the time and resources that would go into keeping that fresh and updated; just wondering if it’s considered.
Keith Law: I have zero interest in this. It becomes way too prone to recency bias.

Mark: Do you like espresso? If so, how do you drink the sparkling water served with it?
Keith Law: After the espresso as a palate cleanser. I assume that’s your question – like, as opposed to dumping the espresso in the sparkling water?

Jo-Nathan: Is the handling of Mike Vasil closing in on abuse? He was ‘needed’ for the final 4 outs Tuesday as his team was about to blow a 6 run lead, and his coach still planned to start him Wednesday. Lucky for his arm the game was rained out, but he’s scheduled to pitch today. It would be interesting to see a lawyer go after this coach in a civil suit when his arm blows up. Having said that this coach should be fired but instead it sounds like he’ll be celebrated for getting his team this far.
Keith Law: His coach refused to take responsibility for misusing Vasil two days before the start where the kid got hurt, throwing him a meaningless relief inning with no scouts present. If Vasil blows out, I hope parents and administrators look back at how he was mishandled this spring. You can never draw a straight line from misuse to injury, but we can at least point to the misuse as bad process.

Rex: Have you tried the new board game Bofa yet? It’s gotten pretty decent reviews, but I wanted to get your expert opinion before I buy it.
Keith Law: I have been on the Internet since you were an egg sitting idly in your mother’s ovary. You must be really, really stupid to think I’d fall for DEEZ NUTS.

Mark: Do you think a Brad Hand for Kyle Tucker trade is fair for both sides?
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHA no.

Harold Kunz: Do you expect the Cubs to run away with the division this year?
Keith Law: No. Try asking less extreme questions, like, “do you expect the Cubs to win the division this year?” (Yes.)

TJ: So what happened with Liberatore? Teams didn’t know his price so they passed and then he signed for slot anyway?
Keith Law: I think his price was a little high for the teams in the top ten, and then he got to teams his adviser may not have talked to seriously, assuming they’d never get there. I know the Rays had no expectation he’d get to them.

Chris: Have you seen or heard anything about Oakland INF/OF Eli White? Total np coming into the year, did nothing in Stockton last season, but he’s putting up big numbers in AA. Anything there, or just the best 250 AB’s of his life?
Keith Law: Best 250 AB of his life. Not young, .404 BABIP, no previous performance.

Marc (DC): Is Dom Smith still a prospect? How badly has Sandy Alderson mismanaged the Mets farm system?
Keith Law: He’s not a prospect by my definition for rankings, but I still think he has a good major-league future ahead of him if they just let him play. Alderson et al have really worked against themselves with weird promotions/holding players back. Tebow sucks at two levels, still goes to AA; David Peterson rips apart the Pac 12, has to start in low-A and dominate for over two months just to see the Florida State League.

Santiago: Hey Keith, what are your thoughts on Orioles left hanger DL Hall? Ceiling? Likely role?
Keith Law: As is now, mid-rotation starter. Stuff has taken a half-step back.

Alex: Hey Keith, are you swinging by the Cape at all this summer? Fellow Long Islander interning with Y-D and would love to say hi
Keith Law: If I go, it’ll be the last full week of July, before I head to the Silver Unicorn in Acton for a book signing/talk.

Brian: Does Jeisson Rosario have a future as an average regular or more?
Keith Law: Yes, with low probability given his age/distance from the majors.

Sean: What would you say are reasonable expectations for how Loaisiga will perform while Tanaka is out?
Keith Law: He was in short-season ball last year, so I’d keep expectations low. Major-league stuff right now, future starter, not major-league command yet.

Archie: How quickly do you think Bart can get to the majors?
Keith Law: Within two years. Don’t think he’s a fast-to-the-majors guy.

Ben: Why hasn’t there been more made of Ryan Rolison’s advocating violence against President Obama? I realize that this isn’t remotely the same as Luke Heimlich but it would have been absolutely disqualifying for me. Why is he getting such a pass?
Keith Law: I actually don’t think anyone saw it until after he was taken. At least, I didn’t. Also, tip to future possible draft picks: Delete your social media accounts. Like, now.

Brian Anderson: What does my future hold? Rookie of the year this year? Beyond?
Keith Law: Not ROY for me right now. Future average regular.

Don: Do front offices consider it a failure if their top 5 pick ends up being a league average player?
Keith Law: Yes. In some drafts, of course, that’s not really fair – the 2008 draft only had two stars in it.

Chris: Gavin Cecchini is surely better than Jose Reyes, right?
Keith Law: I don’t think you can trust Cecchini on the left side of the infield. I’d love to see the Mets fire Reyes into the heart of the sun, but they would need a backup SS, no?

Brett : Could Kevin Smith develop enough to push Bichette to another position? What is his ceiling?
Keith Law: No, he’s not a long-term SS at all.

Reginald: Do you generally advocate for kids to skip college if they aren’t Day 1 picks but are Day 2?
Keith Law: Depends on what the bonus might be, their financial situation, and what their projection is – if you’re a kid who’s likely to get bigger and stronger in college, that’s a different answer than if you’re 5’11” and maxed out physically.

WhiteSoxAndy: Keith, do you follow the FIFA World Cup at all? (Please don’t respond with the soccer-hating tone that a lot of people I know do. My 2 favorite sports are baseball and soccer – both can be loved!)
Keith Law: With Italy out, I have no real rooting interest this year … and I find it hard to justify watching an event in Russia, bought and paid for by a country that has clearly interfered in our electoral process.

CD: What do you make of Austin Beck so far? Hitting for average, but no power. K rate has improved, but his BB rate has fallen. He’s only 19 so he’s young for the league, but I don’t know if this progress or not.
Keith Law: Power will be there. Not worried about that at all.

KW: Thanks for taking the time to do this, Keith. What are the chances Clemens’ dominance in the CWS leads him to reject the Tigers’ 3rd round signing offer and return for a senior year to chase a higher selection?
Keith Law: Zero. I doubt anyone is that dumb.
Keith Law: Plus he almost certainly agreed to a number already. Backing out of that won’t do him or his adviser any favors.

Jim: I have to confess that, outside of the obvious of being able to sit down together, I’m no overly impressed with the Singapore meeting. However, I’m not sure how muc of that is due to my total loathing of 45. So, style/no substance, impressive accomplishment, or another troubling case of enabling an authoritarian regime?
Keith Law: Right now, just enabling a murderous dictator – giving him the PR boost he wanted, the validation that comes from seeing the DPRK flag alongside the US flag, of seeing a US President saluting a North Korean general. We should judge all leaders on measurable progress, not on pomp and circumstance. (Now, if Trump follows through on ending the federal ban on marijuana, that would be real, measurable progress.)

Jamie: Is this peak Albert Almora and should he play every day?
Keith Law: This looks about right. Not a ton of power but strong AVG, high contact, 70 defense.

Erin: Do you know what’s going on with Jose Albertos? I know I’m not supposed to scout the stat line, but 18+ ERA after 5 starts?
Keith Law: Fairly certain he has the yips.

Joe: Think Loaisiga can hold his own in the bigs at this time? Would it have made more sense to call up Sheffield or someone else?
Keith Law: He was already on the 40-man. Gave him a big advantage.

Jo-Nathan: Is Josh Staumont starting to figure it out?
Keith Law: No. I swear people ask this every year.

Don: Who do you prefer, Nick Madrigal or Luis Urias?
Keith Law: Unfair comparison – AAA hitter with success everywhere vs guy who hasn’t played pro ball yet.

Jeries: Dylan Covey gained almost 2mph on his fastball and is throwing it way more, and is now a groundball machine. Were you ever high on him?
Keith Law: In high school. He was really mediocre in college, never got any better in pro ball.

Brett : Assuming you read the comments made by an NL executive who said Bryce Harper is overrated and a selfish player. Would love you insight on these comments.
Keith Law: I am assuming that cowardly “executive” has spent the last 48 hours furiously deleting all his text messages and emails.

Mike: How much draft day risk is there for a strategy like Toronto’s, where they pass on Liberatore, to take Groshans and then Koffenstein. What if someone took Kloshenstein instead?
Keith Law: Given what they paid Kloffenstein (third time’s the charm), he wasn’t likely to be selected. I think the advisor put word out he wasn’t signing for anything less than that, so teams passed.

Bort: What do you say to people who think bat flips = poor sportsmanship?
Keith Law: go watch golf

Andres: Any listens on the new Johnny Marr singles? Thoughts?
Keith Law: All fine but unremarkable – he hasn’t been great at crafting huge hooks, not since the Smiths broke up.

books: Have you announced yet what cities you’ll be in signing copies of Smart Baseball?
Keith Law: Only DC and outside Boston.

Phillies fan: On a scale of 1-10, how worried should I be about Sixto Sanchez being put on the DL for elbow issues?
Keith Law: Maybe 5. They’re also being super cautious with him. But he’s a little guy who throws 100, so there’s always some concern.

Bort: How fast can Alec Bohm move? Is a 2019 debut unreasonable aggressive?
Keith Law: I think that’s on the extreme optimistic end.

Joe: Do you think of any of the Giants’ collection of lesser/younger arms – Stratton, Suarez, Rodriguez, Beede, Black- can be as much as a No. 4 starter? Or any at least a 5?
Keith Law: A 4 would be a great outcome for any of them. If you mean Ray Black, he can’t even stay healthy or throw strikes as a reliever.

Amory: Devers just have growing pains or has your belief in his ceiling gone down?
Keith Law: He’s 21. He’s younger than Alec Bohm. Come on.

Amy: Is Jordan Beeks a ML starter? Can he be a decent 4/5, or is he just a depth piece?
Keith Law: I think he’s a depth piece, maybe a really good reliever, but you saw in that first inning he threw that there was some deception involved in AAA that didn’t work in the majors.

Brandon: Have you started a list of some kind of the college players you’ll try scout more in 2019 now that the 2018 draft is over? Any Vandy guys towards the top of that list?
Keith Law: I won’t bear down like that until the spring. If I can work in some Cape games, I’ll just go see whoever I see – I don’t target guys so much as just go to games and watch.

Sloan: Madrigal or Moncada as White Sox 2B for the next 5-7 years?
Keith Law: Madrigal is the safer bet. Curious what Moncada would look like in the OF, and I didn’t think he was bad at 3b in the AFL.

Jo-Nathan: Has Bo Bichette improved enough defensively to stick at SS long term?
Keith Law: Nope.

Kevin: After Hjelle signs would he be your no. 2 prospect for SF Giants?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t take him over Ramos right now.

Joe: I apologize if you already mentioned this, but who do you see as the first 2018 draft pick to appear in majors?
Keith Law: With the Tigers having no reason to push Mize, it’ll probably be some college closer like Feltman or Gilliam.

Humble Newsie: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat and all of your work. Do you think of Mejia in the top tier of catching prospects all by himself, or does one of Ruiz, Murphy, Jansen, Smith (or someone else) belong there too?
Keith Law: He’s well ahead of anyone else – but he might be such a good hitter he gets moved off catcher, too.

Chase : Jo Adell’s hitting ability coming around? He’s still not walking, but it looks like he’s adjusted to the Cal League while being quite a bit younger than his competition. I love the dude.
Keith Law: I have no issue with him not walking given his youth and other performance.

Brian: What happened to Buddy Reed? Looks like he’s still striking out a lot at ~25% but he appears to be crushing the ball and playing great defense in High A. what have you heard about him and has he elevated himself on the padres prospect rankings?
Keith Law: No, he’s 24, way too old for high-A, in a good hitter’s park. Age. Matters.

Adam: So Fernando Tatis Jr isn’t a bust anymore. That’s nice.
Keith Law: Yeah but has that one writer decided he’s more than an org player yet?

Paul: Are Folty and Newcomb here to stay as #2/3 starters?
Keith Law: Folty yes. Newcomb no. Hard to project a guy as a #2 starter when he’s barely throwing 60% of pitches for strikes.

Nick: Is Mets farm system not as bad as a lot of people say it is? I feel they have several mid rotations starters (Peterson, Dunn, Kay, Szapucki if he comes back healthy) and several interesting bats (Alonso, Giminez, now Kelenic). Obviously not a top system, but I don’t think that this is the disaster of a group that many people think it is.
Keith Law: I’ve said this for a while. Mets fans have many reasons to complain about how the team has been run, but the farm system itself is not the problem.

Chris: Florial, Andujar and Sheffield for DeGram-who says no?
Keith Law: The Yankees. I wouldn’t do that and I think Florial has been wildly overrated by people who haven’t seen him play.

Matt: Given that Kopech is knocking on the door and the rest of the rotation looks relatively solid with Rodon back, does it make sense to send Giolito back to triple A? Seems like the problem is that he forgot how to throw strikes, not sure if he needs to stay in the majors to fix that
Keith Law: I would; it’s not getting better just by rolling him out there every five days. I can understand them wanting to keep him working with the major league coaching staff on restoring his mechanics, but it’s mid-June and he hasn’t gotten any better since the team broke camp.

Wellington Jones: Bubba Thompson was drafted by the Rangers as one of their toolsy athletes who couldn’t hit. He’s K’ing a lot in A ball, but appears to be drawing a few walks and putting up decent numbers. Is there reason to be encouraged by his start?
Keith Law: “who couldn’t hit” is just wrong. He was raw, but didn’t have a 30 hit tool or the like. He’s a prospect, still raw, making some progress.

XxXxYyYyXxXxX: Rangers fans are up in arms over Texas passing on Liberatore for Winn at 15, when Liberatore signed for below slot. Defensible decision, or did the Rangers blow it here?
Keith Law: I had Winn in my top 10 and Liberatore at 3. For high school arms, that’s really not a huge difference. It’s also quite possible that the Rangers hadn’t spent a ton of time on Liberatore because they figured (as I did) he’d never get to 15.

Rob: Taking the family to the Jersey Shore this year? I’m a fan of the Sea Grill in Avalon.
Keith Law: Never been to the Jersey shore at all.

Brian: No mention of the Mariners in your recent insider article on team’s new top prospects. Is Gilbert anywhere close to the top of their weak farm system?
Keith Law: He’s not #1.

Bill: Josh Naylor seems to be settling in at left field in AA. Will he be the Pads left fielder by Labor Day?
Keith Law: I’d be floored if he were able to play LF at an adequate major league level.

Paul: If you were in Anthopoulos’ position, how would you handle the trade deadline?
Keith Law: If you think you can trade some pitching surplus for major-league help, consider it – they do have a few more arms than they can use in the majors right now, and there are guys like Wright, Wilson, Anderson coming fast. But I wouldn’t go all in, or try to trade for someone like Machado … fans pushing for that are delusional on several levels, not least how much impact one player might have in two months.

Chris: Let’s say Kershaw returns in a few weeks, pitches like his normal self and then opts out. What offer would you be comfortable giving him and would you pay a little extra if you’re the Dodgers given his importance to the organization and LAD’s seemingly unlimited monies?
Keith Law: I have a feeling this is what’s going to end up happening – the Dodgers will offer him more, because he’s Clayton Kershaw. Don’t you have to try to offer him at least an Arrieta-like deal – short duration, huge AAV, in the hopes that he gives you one or two Peak Kershaw years?

Brett : Acuna or Soto long term?
Keith Law: Still taking Acuna there.

Gabe: Do you think the Eduardo Rodriguez will ever be more than a back end starter?
Keith Law: I think he’s more than that right now.

Jesse B: Does Seuly Matias have enough hit tool to be a star?
Keith Law: Right now, no. He’s doing what Joey Gallo did in low-A, but with 2/3 the walk rate. And Gallo is still dancing on the edge of major league value.

Mark: Are there any board games that are two players against the game if that makes sense? Like a couple could play together trying to win against the game (jigsaw puzzle I guess, but fun)?
Keith Law: Lots of cooperative games – Pandemic, Forbidden Desert, Forbidden Island, Flash Point, Spirit Island (I still haven’t played that through), etc.
Keith Law: Oh, Elder Sign. Goofier, still very fun for 2.

Yinka Double Dare: What were the odds on Dylan Covey being the White Sox’s best starting pitcher this year? Velo ticked up this year, throwing a lot more sinkers, walks down, strikeouts up, hard to believe it’s the same guy who gave up 20 homers in 70 innings last year.
Keith Law: I would have said zero odds on that back in March.

Gary: Saw a Rosenthal article floating a Devers for Machado trade. 5 years of Devers seems like too much for a rental, even one as good as Machado. Would you do that from Boston side?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

Dan: I hate to bring him up again but I’m genuinely curious about what happens to Luke Heimlich now. Two consecutive years of going undrafted and now his time with Oregon State is over. Does he go play independent ball somewhere and hope to sign with a team after some time goes by? Or are his aspirations of playing in MLB over?
Keith Law: Here’s my view on the matter: I don’t want to ever talk about Luke Heimlich again.

Jeries: Who has a brighter future in the outfield if they need to move there, Tim Anderson or Yoan Moncada?
Keith Law: You lose much more moving Anderson than you do moving Moncada, IMO.

John: Verducci had a recent article, advocating for (i) lowering the mound, (ii) limit the roster to 12 pitchers, or (iii) implementing a pitch clock. Any reaction to those proposals?
Keith Law: You lower the mound if you really want to get more pitchers hurt.

Kenny: If a 1st day guys were not going to sign, who is the most likely?
Keith Law: They will also sign unless someone flunks a physical (or the team discovers old tweets threatening to kill the President).

Michael : You had Kyler Murray ranked in the 30s pre-draft, but didn’t seem to have a problem with the A’s drafting him with the 9th pick. Was your ranking affected by signability issues, the fact that he’s a high risk/reward prospect, or something else?
Keith Law: He had ~100 AB total in between high school and this spring. He is very high risk, and high reward.
Keith Law: And he wasn’t close to the lowest-ranked player taken in the first round, either.

Trevor: Where is Kevin Maitan?
Keith Law: Still in extended spring training.

Seth: It’s been widely reported the Giants held a private workout for Bart in San Francisco. Is that typical for guys at the top of the draft to have private workouts?
Keith Law: Yes.

CD: Two part questions – just based on talent, forget football, do you like the Murray pick for Oakland? Also, just your gut feeling, will the pick end up being “successful” for the team and the player?
Keith Law: If I said he has, say, a 30% chance of being a successful big leaguer, I’d raise that to 40% if he’d just play this summer and fall instead of going to get his head bashed in playing CTE-ball.

Joe: Fair to see Witt as similar to Daz Cameron from a few years ago? I.e. a good player who gets a bit overhyped given his bloodline and the fact that his class hasn’t been heavily scouted.
Keith Law: Yes. That could change as we all turn our lonely eyes to the 2019 class.

Sean: Approximately what % of the time are you away from home during the season? Do you find this hard on your family? Asking as someone contemplating taking a job that includes a lot of travel.
Keith Law: I range between 50 and 70 hotel nights per year, concentrated in between Valentine’s Day and Memorial Day. The rest of the summer I do a lot of minor league work from the house – there are seven or eight teams I can round-trip in two hours each way or less.

Michael: For people interested in a career in baseball, do scouts and front office people ever see their families? It looks like most of them are married and have kids, but it’s gotta be tough.
Keith Law: Yes, it’s very hard on families. I travel less than most scouts & GMs do, and I know it still upsets my daughter when I have long trips.

Chris: Lamonte Wade tore up AA and just got promoted. Major league regular for you?
Keith Law: Extra OF for me.

Jesse B: Kevin Smith came out of nowhere. Is he legit? Possibly the BlueJays SS of the future?
Keith Law: Not a SS. And he was a college guy in low-A until June – you can throw out what he did for Lansing.

Keith Law Disciple: I just wanted to say I love you! Please keep doing what you’re doing.
Keith Law: Thanks, but really, I don’t think I could do anything else at this point.

Jake: So, were you of the same frame of mind when President Obama enabled the Iranian authoritarian regime? Going so far as to allegedly help them launder money to get around international sanctions?
Keith Law: but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about
Keith Law: (Also, that story is straight from the GOP.)

Harrisburg Hal: Do you cook, go out or have something prepared for you for Fathers Day?
Keith Law: I’ll cook. I’ve been eating out a lot lately, and have a vacation coming up, so it’ll be nice to cook & have a nice dinner at home.

Jeremy: Do you think the Mariners can keep up with the Astros throughout the long season? Hard to believe the Astros have over a +100 run diff on the M’s and have the same record.
Keith Law: I do not. Mariners might win the WC, but the Astros will win the division.

Jamie: No snark, can you explain how 50 games is small sample size for performance, but 1-2 games isn’t SSS for scouting?
Keith Law: Because scouting isn’t that kind of data. You don’t have the same kind of randomness – a pitcher who averages 94 isn’t going to throw 88 one game and 100 the next. A hitter’s swing isn’t going to vary wildly game to game. A player who’s an 80 runner isn’t going to run average on a Tuesday night.
Keith Law: Skills shouldn’t vary much at all. Performance is the result of the repeated application of skills against the skills of other players. Performance will vary.

Sean: Have you seen Frederick Keys outfielder Ryan McKenna this year? Reports are that he made some mechanical adjustments halfway through 2017, and he’s looked great this year.
Keith Law: I saw him for 2 AB on Sunday before the rainout. I liked what I saw, but would like to see more … the swing is good as is the body.

Chris: Re: the Harper comments. I’m not a Harper hater in the least. It appears he works hard, plays hard, etc. I do however think he is a tad overrated and there are probably 10-12 guys I would draft right now over him. Is that a more realistic and reasonable viewpoint than “he sucks, he’s a loser.”
Keith Law: I wouldn’t agree with you on that, but it is a reasonable, measured position that avoids insulting the player or making unfalsifiable claims.

Marc (DC): When will you be signing your book in DC?
Keith Law: July 14th at Politics & Prose with my friend Jay Jaffe.

Mike: Upside for Taylor Hearn – 4/5 starter or reliever for you?
Keith Law: Reliever. Good one.

John: Saw that you linked to a couple of things about Anthony Bourdain. To what extent were you a fan?
Keith Law: Loved his writing. Not a big TV watcher, so I was never big on his shows. I feel so bad for Eric Ripert, who had to find him, and Asia Argento, who’s been through hell herself the last year and now has to deal with this loss too.

David: Hi Keith! Thanks for not sticking to sports. When can we expect an update to your pizza ranking (unless it’s still up to date)?
Keith Law: Good question. I should add that to the long-term to-do list.

Joshua: What position do you believe Carter Kieboom eventually plays in the Majors, and do you believe his bat will play for whatever position you think he ends up at? Thanks.
Keith Law: Second base and yes.

Brett : From one Father to another, wishing you a Happy Father’s Day!
Keith Law: Thank you – Happy Father’s Day to you too, and to all the dads and dads-to-be out there.
Keith Law: I’m going on vacation next week, so this will probably be the last chat until July (the timing won’t work out well for a chat the week after). Thank you all for reading and for all of your questions – I appreciate your readership, especially at a time like this when I’m creating so much content and dumping it on all of you at once. I should have the top 25 players under 25 ready to go before I leave, so keep an eye out for that as well!

Comments

  1. Kind of merging the deGrom and AA questions here, but is there a trade of Andujar for one of Atlanta’s starters that makes sense for both teams?

    • Only if the Yankees are all in on signing Machado to a deal and skipping Harper (as a Yankee fan I’d be ok with that). But I don’t think the Braves do it unless they get two players back.

    • I think Atlanta believes Riley is their 3b of the future, so probably not.

      Also, to later visitors – the chat took place today at 1 pm ET. I answer follow-up questions here sometimes but if you have new baseball questions you’ll have to wait for the next chat.

    • Okay, thanks Keith. I hadn’t realized Atlanta had a 3B prospect knocking on the door.

      Aaron, my thought process for the Yanks had been that they should pursue Machado this offseason and then they’d have the ability to sift through their best offers for Didi, Gleyber or Andujar to pursue a top-tier pitcher, but if the right offer shows up this season, the presence of Drury to fill in for a couple of months allows them to reverse that process and get the pitcher for the stretch run this year.

    • I’ve seen Riley a couple of times at Gwinnett this year and love his approach at the plate. But in the games I’ve been to, there has yet to be a grounder towards third. Physically, he looks bigger than I was expecting – very square, solid body – and worry a little that as he fills out, he may outgrow the position. I’d welcome any scouting observations about his fielding from Keith and the readers here.

  2. Where’s the vacay to?

  3. What is it about lowering the mound that would result in more injuries to pitchers?

    • Not to speak for Keith here, but my immediate impression (read: uneducated guess) is that a lower mound would quite likely force pitchers to alter their throwing motion, which in turn could increase the risk of injury.

    • Exactly my thinking.

    • In the world of for what its worth … the last time the mound was lowered was in ’69 and in the years shortly after, we saw an explosion of long careers from moundmen, whether the all timers like Carlton, Seaver, Blyleven, Perry or those a notch down like John, Tanana, Reuss, etc. Correlation =/= causation, but that is at least one data point.

  4. Your response to the Liberatore question is really interesting. It was framed by many that him to Tampa was a done deal and that’s why he fell there. Makes sense that teams from 10-15 or so hadn’t negotiated and didn’t want to risk. Do you like him more than McKay?

    • There was no pre-draft deal with Tampa. I’m 100% sure of that. Both are great prospects but I’d take McKay.