Klawchat 9/21/17.

Three new Insider pieces for you to check out this week: scouting notes on Yu Darvish, more notes on Aaron Nola and some young Phillies hitters, and my annual look at players I was wrong about.

Keith Law: Going with the flow, it’s all a game to me. Klawchat.

James: Does Fernando Tatis Jr stick at SS?
Keith Law: I think it’s 50/50. Depends on how much bigger he gets. Certainly has the hands and actions for it.

James: Luis Urias has a killer eye at the plate but lacks power or any other standout tool. What kind of MLB player could he develop into?
Keith Law: Possible regular at 2b but lack of power is a major concern. Think it’s a more likely outcome he becomes some sort of utility guy or multi-position regular.

Nick: Why does Scioscia continue to play Albert Pujols during a postseason run even though Pujols clearly hurts the team AND they have better options???
Keith Law: I’m going to go way out on a limb here and say it’s because of his contract.

Michael: Odd question: do you ever wear a baseball cap? If so, which logo is on it? I would think it would have to be something non-partisan like a Homestead Grays cap or some such thing.
Keith Law: If you see me at a game I will probably have a cap on, especially in the daytime. None of them have logos of any team.

Brian Sabean: When will you nerds put down your slide rulers and realize that clutch hitting is real? You can’t measure clutchitude.
Keith Law: I believe the technical term is “clutchiness.”

Clarence (not Mike D.): Rangers fan here. Last year I felt good about Roughie Odor’s season, despite the 3% walk rate, because of the 30+ homeruns and the wRC+ of 106. Given his position and age, there was some reason to be excited. This season, though? Good lord, what an atrocity. Any hope for this kid’s approach?
Keith Law: He hasn’t given us any reason to have hope for it.

TJ: Do you think that we’ll see aluminum/composite bats in MLB within the next 25 years?
Keith Law: Christ I hope not. I’ll have to find a new line of work.

@RationalMLBfan: In last week’s chat, you mentioned that Gleybar at 2B would be a waste of his defensive ability. Would you explore trading Gregorius, who has turned into a solid average SS (whose hitting is *not* a product of YS, per his splits), in the next year to address the 2019 logjam? Try to trade Castro (or not [re]sign Frazier, Headley, Machado) and move Gregorius to 2B or 3B?
Keith Law: I would explore the market for Didi; I believe strongly that 1) this is his peak and 2) Gleyber has a much higher ceiling.

TJ: Do you have any take on the Neshek/Grienke autograph story?
Keith Law: Only that mentioning Greinke’s social anxiety in the news stories about it is just bullshit.

Keith: How do you think the White Sox will handle Luis Robert next season? Has your POV on him changed based on anything you heard from the DSL?
Keith Law: He was way too old for the DSL – most players there are 18 or younger. I assume he’ll start in Kannapolis.

Thad: Any chance Sean newcomb’s increased use of his high whiff change will help spring his breakout? Control issues need to change obviously but a lefty with a good change and high spin rate breaking ball seems too good to never figure it out.
Keith Law: Still haven’t seen a good argument why he’ll throw strikes other than “he’ll eventually throw strikes.” It’s not his delivery, and I don’t see how anyone could easily alter it to improve his control or command.

Kevin: In reading one of the links you posted a couple of weeks ago, I began wondering how many kids who don’t participate in showcases actually end up being drafted out of high school. It seems like their names become known based on these events. Are there actually kids out there who are not part of that circuit who end up being “Guys”? If so, how does word typically get out about them, since it seems almost every college and pro guy loves the one stop shopping of these big events?
Keith Law: Yes, plenty of kids get drafted without paying to go to showcases. I’m not sure why you’d say “almost every college and pro guy” loves those events; have you talked to that many coaches and scouts to make such a claim? Area scouts prefer to go see players one by one in actual games rather than the artificial environment of showcases.

Mike: Once Javy started to start everyday once Addi went out it seems like his plate discipline improved. Do you think he can get to a little below average walk rate if he starts everyday?
Keith Law: I do not. I don’t think he’s wired for that.

Jose R.: The Marlins’ Brian Anderson kind of snuck up on us this year. Can he be their everyday 3B next year without hurting the team?
Keith Law: Reports on the defense have been glowing this year; if he’s really a 6 or 7 glove there, then yes, he’s a regular, even if the bat’s a little light.

Seth: A couple small things that always bothered me. With interleague play everyday, why do we have to reset the stats of a player if they switch leagues? Also: if a pitcher commits the error, should it be considered an earned run? I’ll hang up and listen!
Keith Law: Resetting the stats is an anachronism that should probably due now. I think the unearned run/earned run distinction is useless.

Dan: De la Cruz pulled from AFL. Starting to become a concern that he can’t say healthy?
Keith Law: Already was a concern, now I’d just say it’s a legitimate reason to question his value.

Juwan: Do you view Victor Robles as having superstar upside? He has looked insanely dynamic for the Nats in the few performances we got to see him.
Keith Law: I do. Huge tools, still young, has always performed even when young for his leagues.

Chris: Bob Geren. On a scale from just find a new team to root for to just jump off a cliff, what should Mets’ fans reaction be to this likely hire?
Keith Law: He’s not Terry, which is an automatic improvement. What I don’t know is if Geren will be better the second time around – if he learned anything from his failures the first time, like AJ Hinch or Terry Francona did.

TC: Hey Keith, loving the book. I coach a travel team of 12/13 year old boys (no we don’t let them pitch on consecutive days or throw more than 60 pitches in an outing!) but I was wondering about the applicability of the 75% rule for stolen bases at that age level (as in, if they can’t steal successfully at least 75% of the time then they shouldn’t even try) – should that percentage be higher? lower? . I’m happy to report that my team NEVER bunts (unless it’s for a base hit)
Keith Law: Probably much lower because of the higher likelihood of an error or misplay that results in a steal that gains you two extra bases.

Jon: Any updates thoughts on Cole Tucker (SS – Pit) now that his season is over? Could he make Trea Turner-like improvements next year in his age-22 season at AA?
Keith Law: Nothing like Turner at all. Saw him a few weeks ago and wrote about him – good news is his arm seems fine, bat isn’t as far along as i’d like.

Ml: If you are running the Twins, is Kepler a part of your future?
Keith Law: Yes.

David: What would the penalty be if MLB discovered an “under the table” deal with Ohtani?
Keith Law: A fine, and maybe a loss of international pool money and/or draft picks. Probably still worth it. MLB is royally screwing this up. Manfred should just waive the rules for Otani and let him go to the highest bidder. Otherwise, the kid is nuts to come over now, between the restrictions and his impending ankle surgery.

Pops: What is your take on the Greinke/Neshek spat? Does Zach’s anxiety belong in the conversation? Isn’t that an entirely plausible explanation for his behavior here?
Keith Law: If Greinke wants to explain his behavior by referring to his social anxiety, that’s fine. YOU do not get to do that.

Marshall : What’s the outlook on Ryan O’Hearn? Previously you said that you didn’t think he’d be a regular…. Has he done anything to change your mind?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s a fair representation of what I said; he has big-league power, and the contact he makes tends to be very hard (I think his exit velos are good too), but he hasn’t shown the approach or OBP skills to get to regular status yet. In a weak system, with potential holes all over the major league roster next year, though, I’d like to see the Royals give him a shot.

Chris : Are there certain stats that you discount given September baseball can be less meaningful and rosters are expanded? I love watching Nimmo play but am not sure if his Sept and OBP are a product of bad pitching or actual development.
Keith Law: I would generally discount everything in September if it’s an outlier compared to what the player did before (majors or minors).

Dog: Has anything in Luke Weaver’s outstanding performance since he was called up changed your opinion of him long-term, or is this just a small sample size fluke?
Keith Law: Tiny sample, facing some bad lineups, uncharacteristically high GB% (never been close to 50% anywhere else in his pro career, over 50% in majors this year). Zach Duke had a great first half-season in the majors that didn’t look that different from Weaver’s.
Keith Law: FWIW, I think Weaver’s better than Duke. Weaver’s a starter, just not a top of rotation guy.

Derick: Did you see Sabean’s interview on clutch hitting? Is it weird that the least disturbing part of the interview (at least for a Giant’s fan) is when he said “I’ll kiss your ass on Main Street”?
Keith Law: There were a lot of comments there and from Bochy that I didn’t understand. It sounded like the team is blaming Belt for having a concussion, too.

Ben: Rant: It’s so frustrating having to watch Braves games on mute because Chip & Joe spend the whole game complaining about modern baseball. They honestly argued that hitters hit too many home runs last night. Not enough “exciting hit and run, fundamental baseball” they said. I have to watch baseball games on mute, Keith!! Ridiculous.
Keith Law: Joe Simpson – who, I’m told, has taken some shots at me on air – should spend some time with his own team’s front office.

Scott: This is something that probably takes more than a chat answer to get in to, but when you’re evaluating a catcher’s game calling, what are some of the things you look for?
Keith Law: I don’t. I rely on coaches, players, team execs. I can’t evaluate that stuff from teh stands.

Dog: Is Galvis really good enough to push JP Crawford off of SS?
Keith Law: No, that’s silly.

Dana: Do you think the Wild Card Game should be a best of 3 series? Nothing more random than one baseball game.
Keith Law: I don’t want longer playoffs.

Rob : You weren’t as high as some on Jordan Adell in the draft, so has his early minor league success surprised you at all?
Keith Law: Nothing a player does in his first summer surprises me. Go look at what Dante Bichette Jr. did his first pro summer.

CB: Do you think you have any readers in Nambia?
Keith Law: No but I’m huge in Nimbabwe.

Dog: Do you buy into the theory that the baseballs are different this season, leading to more home runs? Could that also explain why guys are seeing a power jump once they get promoted to the majors from the minors (I know its a small sample, but Jesse Winker, for example, has shown way more over the fence power than expected).
Keith Law: Not a theory any more. The baseballs are different; we have direct and secondary evidence to support this.

Danny: Do you still think Clint Frazier will produce strong average and on base numbers? I think I recall you once saying that he was the best best in the minors at one point to have a batting title.
Keith Law: Did I say that? He does have one of the 2 or 3 fastest bats I’ve ever seen, but his eye has never been great.

Eric: Should Rick Honeycutt be directing Darvish to throw his changeup/cutter as you recommended? Is the fact that Darvish isn’t throwing this way essentially Honeycutt thinking it’s unnecessary or Darvish deciding he can’t/won’t do it? Both of those scenarios seem like mismanagement of an asset; the Dodgers should be trying to extract as much value out of Darvish as they can while they have him.
Keith Law: It’s not easy to just go tell a veteran player “do this, not that.” You have to get him to buy into it. I don’t have to worry about that in my job – I get to just state my opinion and not worry about whether the player agrees – but that should at least be a conversation the Dodgers have with Darvish, about throwing his changeup more (or maybe restoring the splitter?) and throwing the cutter a lot less.

Danny: Do Jorge Guzman or Freicer Perez look like starters to you?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen either yet, but based on what scouts have told me, Perez yes, Guzman probably not.

Brett: Is Klaw an Apple or Android kind of guy?
Keith Law: Apple. Had bad experiences with two Android phones years ago and that ended it for me. I do own a Kindle Fire, but use it almost exclusively as an e-reader.

Andrew, NY: I just watched the video you posted of lagreca on twitter. and he is dead wrong about the pythagorean theorem not being in baseball. My nephew just moved up a level in little league and is a C. we wanted to see have far his throw is now compared to last year and used that theorem to figure it out. and i didnt even have to do a mock lisp..go figure.
Keith Law: The rank anti-intellectualism of the rant was maybe the most disturbing part but hardly the only one. I wonder if he can explain the Pythagorean Theorem in plain English. Either the baseball one or the real one.

Robert: Do you think Duggar or Bryan Reynolds would be a better fit for CF at AT&T park in S.F.? Thanks
Keith Law: Reynolds, I think. Both are interesting, with some upside. I’ve seen Reynolds more in CF and believe he can play it.

Miguel: Do you think Eric Hosmer is an upgrade over Brandon Belt? Belt walks a ton more and rates as a much better fielder but on the Baseball Tonight podcast Buster and Kurkjian were saying the Giants should dump Belt for Hosmer. Are they forgetting Hosmer had a negative WAR just last year?
Keith Law: Hosmer’s 2017 season is an enormous outlier compared to the rest of his career; even with this year, Belt has nearly twice the career WAR. I don’t think a reasonable projection for each player has Hosmer as an upgrade – certainly not enough of one to justify paying him a premium, selling low on Belt, and probably ceding a draft pick.

JOD: Thoughts on the AL CY race? See arguments both ways re Sale vs. Kluber. To me it matters Sale has made 4 more starts, and it shouldn’t be held against him since Kluber’s made fewer starts and has a lower ERA.
Keith Law: Kluber for me but I don’t feel strongly about it. Either is deserving.

Andres: Thoughts on Slotface’s new release?
Keith Law: Liked most of it. They should be getting a lot more airplay/attention here than they are.

Scott: Nobody ever talks about Tom Eshelman, probably because he barely cracks 90 mph. But unlike Nick Pivetta, for example, who throws 95, Eshelman doesn’t walk anyone or give up home runs. Do you think he can be an effective big league starter? If so, what’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: He doesn’t give up home runs *in the minors*. We’ll see if Eshelman can avoid giving up home runs when sitting 87-88 against big league hitters.

Marty: Will we finally see netting down the lines at all stadiums, after what happened in NY yesterday? Why does it always take a tragedy/near tragedy for people to wake up about something so obvious?
Keith Law: I hope so. Otherwise we’re saying “we’ll just wait until a fan dies.”

Hinkie: I know the 2018 draft is going to be loaded with pitching, but I’d like your thoughts on a couple of hitters … 1 college, 1 prep. Are Jeremy Eierman and/or Nolan Gorman the type of players good enough to be top 5 picks ?
Keith Law: Think that’s probably optimistic on both.

Alex: Do you really think Braves trade Ender Inciarte?
Keith Law: I never said I thought they would; I said I thought they should.

Steve: Hi Keith, have you read any NK Jemisin? I just finished The Inheritance trilogy and it was beautiful.
Keith Law: I’ve read The Fifth Season and really liked it.

Pat D: Have to play devil’s advocate here a little. ESPN ultimately fired Curt Schilling for a history of saying “controversial” things. Jemelle Hill has a similar history, not as extensive, perhaps, yet she was not fired. Doesn’t this help fuel the ESPN bias narrative that certain people love to perpetuate?
Keith Law: “Controversial” is quite the euphemism. The devil deserves a better advocate than you.

Great Big Little Panther: How often do you go to a minor league or amateur game to scout a known prospect, but come away more impressed by a relatively unknown player?
Keith Law: Almost never.

Pat: Have you heard anything about the severity of Sedlock’s “forearm” injury? Was a disaster this year, then got hurt (though maybe the injury caused the ineffectiveness).
Keith Law: Not really, just heard he wasn’t coming back. Add him to the pile of young arms littering the site of I-895.

Ethan: Do you see Otani coming over now for less money, or waiting for big payday? Does the lower price tag make it any more likely that a team with a lower payroll could actually end up signing him?
Keith Law: I think it’s more likely he waits, given the cap, the ankle injury, and the fact that he hasn’t even hired an agent yet.

Alex: Is the ceiling of Bryse Wilson really higher than Mike Soroka?
Keith Law: I think it is.

Kirby Puckett & The Union Gap: Devers has made a bunch of errors lately, & his fielding percentage has fallen almost to Ryan Braun level. just a slump, or cause for concern?
Keith Law: If you want to talk about a player’s error total, you’re in the wrong chat, pal.

Matt : Is there any chance Judge can still win the MVP? Maybe if the Yankees win the division with him breaking McGuire’s rookie hat record home run record? Or does Altuve have it locked up?
Keith Law: Altuve should have it locked up, but narratives do affect the voting. Maybe some nitwit will argue the Astros were so good that they didn’t need Altuve.

Brett: As of 9/21/17, do you foresee Acuna or Eloy being higher on your 2018 Top 100 list?
Keith Law: I would refer back to my top 50 list in July, which contained both players.

Ben: I’ve always loved popular science books like Asimov, Sagan, Gamow, Feynman and others. Have you read any good recent science books that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Ed Yong’s I Contain Multitudes is the best book in that genre I’ve read this year.

Lumin: Are you evaluating prospects’ future hit/power tools (or even pitchers’ FB rate) differently in the juiced-but-still-standard ball era?
Keith Law: No, because I think (without clear proof) that the scale should hold – that the rising tide lifts all boats. I haven’t seen, for example, why certain players would get a larger boost to their power outputs than others. If I saw such evidence, however, I would make that change.

CJ: It’s a SSS, obviously, but J.P. Crawford went from 0 walks, 7 Ks in his first 6 games to 7 walks, 7 Ks in his next 8 games. Is the latter sustainable for a player as young as he is?
Keith Law: When I saw him prior to this year, his at bats were consistently good, even when the outcomes weren’t. He didn’t mind hitting with two strikes, and he seemed to really understand the outer edge of his zone. For whatever reason, that fell apart in the first half of this year, and I haven’t gotten a satisfactory explanation for it. But what he’s done the last week-plus, and what I specifically saw him do Tuesday night, looks much more like the guy I rated as a top-5 prospect the last two winters.

Jay: I saw someone on Twitter joke that the Dodgers didnt care about winning home field advantage by “benching” Pedro Baez but in theory, wouldn’t the Dodgers be better off NOT having home field advantage? What NL team would want home field in the World Series? I would have to think its more probably they would benefit from a 4th game being able to use a DH than they would playing a home game in a 7 game series filled with randomeness, right?
Keith Law: Do they have a proper DH option? I don’t think they even have three decent outfielders right now.

Ethan: I’m asking this as a proponent of WAR, but are historical WAR figures a good measure? I’ve never understood how they are compiled for players like Ruth, Williams, etc. Aren’t stats, tracking systems, measures used to calculate now that weren’t then?
Keith Law: Historical WAR figures use different defensive metrics, but the core concept is the same: Value every event, add them up, compare to position, adjust for park and league.

Mike: Ever listen to David Cone on YES network doing Yankees’ telecasts? He seems to have a strong understanding of, and appreciation for, modernized statistics AND the ability to translate them into game strategy.
Keith Law: I’ve heard Coney a few times and think he’s among the best because he’s so thoughtful about what he says. I’m not sure I have ever heard him talk just to talk.

Todd: How panicked should Brewers fans be about Jimmy Nelson’s injury? I’ve long defended the no DL in the National League but i’d like it now please.
Keith Law: Labrum surgery is never good. I’m disappointed.

Tracy: Do you sell the books you read to any particular place or do you donate them?
Keith Law: There’s a store in West Chester PA where we donate. We’ve given to local libraries, but our local system isn’t taking donations right now (with some exceptions – I had bought several out-of-print Pulitzer winners to read, and they took those because they didn’t have them anywhere in the state libraries).

Pat: Why do people assume the balls are juiced and not the players? The same “the balls are juiced” narrative happened in the 90s. Are there some actual studies on the balls being different that I’m not aware of?
Keith Law: Yes. The Ringer and 538 both ran articles on this.

Andy: Apparently the Orioles are not planning on trading Machado before next season.
Keith Law: This film doesn’t end well for them.

addoeh: You’ll get a lot of questions in the coming weeks about “clutch”. But, on a 20-80 scale, how are your manual transmission operation skills?
Keith Law: Zero. Never learned.

Don: You mentioned on the pod with Buster that you rarely take your daughter to games. Is she into baseball at all? If not, as a parent is it a bit of a let down in anyway that she’s not into something you are passionate about? (Not that you are disappointed in her for not caring, just that she doesn’t care for something that means a lot to you)
Keith Law: She’s not really into it, and she doesn’t have the attention span for any sporting event, really. We have lots of other things we can share, though; she loves games and we cook together often now. She shaped the gargagnelli (pasta) I posted to Instagram last week.

Drew: I’m seriously not trying to be smart, just curious–I know there’s no proof of Creation, but is there proof of evolution? I’ve never read The Origin of Species, but isn’t it all just theory compiled from observation? Any good references on the subject?
Keith Law: Yes, there is proof. Bill Nye’s Undeniable is a good layperson’s read on the topic. Also, if you understand how antibiotic resistance forms in bacteria, that’s evolution happening before your eyes.

Dallas: Miles Mikolas in 60 starts in Japan has a 2.12 era with 411ip, 367k, 66bb. He has been an ace for Yomiuri. He is a free agent after the season; how would you value him coming back?
Keith Law: Probably about how I valued him before he left for Japan (assuming nothing substantial has changed about him – but I haven’t looked into him at all yet).

Tom: Do you think Justin Upton will opt out of his deal at the end of the season? Do you think the Angels should hope he doesn’t? Having this Upton for a least a couple of seasons would be nice.
Keith Law: I think he will – and the Angels are probably fine either way, really. It’s not a bad deal for them if he stays, but it’s not super team-friendly either.

Ben: How do you respond to those who think adding additional netting to help prevent injuries sustained from foul balls is adding to the pussification of baseball, and how parents aren’t looking out for their kids or this would have been prevented, and everyone should be alert 100% of the time, blah blah blah?
Keith Law: With derision.

Sean: How important is home field advantage in October?
Keith Law: I think it’s marginally important – there’s a slight but significant advantage in baseball to HFA, enough that you want it, not enough to, say, overwork a pitcher to get it.

Steve: Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter will be ____ in 2018.
Keith Law: Frenemies.

JR: If Colin Kaepernick was a 4/5 SP for and kneeled for national anthem before baseball games, would MLB freeze him out the way the NFL has, or would an MLB team sign him?
Keith Law: Josh Lueke found work. I’m thinking Kaep would get signed in MLB. I am thoroughly enjoying the people claiming the NFL’s ratings are down because a few players are kneeling, though. The delusions run deep.

Joe: Keith, DJ Stewart had a good statistical season. Did he improve his prospect standing?
Keith Law: He didn’t really, though. He wasn’t young for AA, and the bar is pretty high for a no-position bat.

Brent: Do you think Seth Beer’s bat will play well enough to make him a high 1st round pick?
Keith Law: Probably. Has to put up another big statistical year, but he’s done that before.

addoeh: What is Mike Montgomery going into next year? A decent #5? A long reliever?
Keith Law: I like him a lot better as a long reliever.

Pat D: Keith, I put “controversial” in quotes because I think controversy is in the eye of the beholder a lot of times. Full disclosure, I despise Schilling, and had no problem with what Hill said, so that’s probably why I can’t make that point. But I have seen others writing that online, and not just trolls.
Keith Law: Creating a hostile work environment by, for example, making racist or transphobic comments, is not “controversial.” It can get you fired, and it can get your employer sued. The EEOC even has a page dedicated to harassment, which includes “offensive jokes, slurs, epithets … offensive pictures.”

Brian: Does Forrest Whitley see the majors in 2018?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t be shocked at all.

CJ: I seem to remember you are an Agatha Christie fan. Any interest in the movie adaptation of Murder on the Orient Express? I tend to think her books don’t necessarily translate well to movies.
Keith Law: I’ll wait and see the reviews, but that book in particular seems like it won’t do well on film.

Darren: Do you believe MLB has to change the baseball back to previous specifications and provide details in the off season of any new changes to the baseball? Or can they go into next season with more changes, not inform the public, and escape with no blame?
Keith Law: There’s no accountability on this – they don’t have to do anything. However, I think the health of the game is going to require them to eventually calm down the ball and raise the bottom of the strike zone (which someone – Hardball Times? – wrote recently has already happened a little bit in 2017).

Nick: Is there anyone from the 2017 draft that has exceeding your expectations so far or is it too early for that?
Keith Law: Too early.

Scott: Duplantier’s season was incredible but do his skills match the stat line? Can he be a front end starter?
Keith Law: It’s not front-end stuff at all; he spent way too much time in low-A even though he was too old/advanced for that level. He is a legit prospect as a starter, but not the kind of starter the stat line might imply.

Tracy: One more book question: Have you considered uploading your entire catalog of all the books you’ve read to a site like LibraryThing.com?
Keith Law: Nah, I just blog about them. I do keep a list for myself, though, which comes in very handy when I’m standing in a used bookstore, looking at Wodehouse or Christie or Greene titles, and can’t remember if I’ve read the one in my hand before.

Harold : Have Fulmer or Lopez done anything to make you more optimistic about either one sticking as a starter?
Keith Law: Not really.

Ghost of Connie Mack: Obviously A’s fans are losing their minds over Olson’s homer binge. While nice, power has never been the question with him. The question has been and will be on the contact and bat speed. Have you seen anything from him that leads you to believe those issues have been improved and he can reach his ceiling?
Keith Law: No, I think he’s a low-average, moderate-OBP, power guy who probably ends up a DH, and can be a solid regular there if the contact rate works out, with a decent chance he’s less than that.

Brian: Thoughts on Gohara? Seems like he could REALLY benefit from developing his changeup, but overall I’m encouraged. I guess I have two questions – how important do you think a 3rd pitch is for him? And how likely do you think he can develop a passable one?
Keith Law: Third pitch definitely important, although his slider is so hard he can work it like a cutter and get some RHB out with it. I do think he’s a starter, chance to be a very good one, but I don’t think i want to buy call options on his career post age-30 or so with that waistline.

Brian: If you were the Phillies would you look to trade Cesar Hernandez in the offseason for pitching or look to move Scott Kingery?
Keith Law: Make room for Kingery. He’s a stud.

mike: Other than Potter and LOTR are there any high fantasy series’ you’ve read that you rec’d for adults
Keith Law: The Magicians trilogy, by Lev Grossman. Also, not a series, but Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell by Susanna Clarke is a top 20 novel all-time for me, and at 1000 pages it’s as long as a series. (The BBC miniseries was fantastic too, especially the casting of the two leads and of the man with the thistledown hair.)

Mike: Please rank the top contenders for Bryce Harper when he hits free agency next winter. Please do the same for Manny Machado.
Keith Law: All of them? I mean, any team with the cash should be interested.

Gary: Why did Forrest Whitley fall to Houston in the draft? Were there concerns that made him fall there or was it the price tag?
Keith Law: He didn’t “fall.” He went in the teens, about where he was expected to go.

Josh: Bogaerts has to be injured, right?
Keith Law: Alex Speier came on the BBTN podcast when I was hosting and said X has been dealing with two hand injuries.

Anonymous: Thoughts on Joc Pederson?
Keith Law: Change of scenery candidate. Has ability, has not converted it, don’t think he’s gotten on well with the staff in LA either.

Danny: How unusual is it for a guy like Severino to develop a plus slider out of nowhere?
Keith Law: I think it’s not unusual, but I have no good sense of how to predict which guy will take a pitch from a 4 to a 6 (or a 7 – that’s probably a 7 slider). Aaron Nola had a fringe CH, now it’s probably close to a 6. If you just bet on athletic guys with good arms, you’ll probably capture all the “new plus pitch” guys, but you’ll also get a lot of others in your net you didn’t want.

Bob: You mentioned cooking with your daughter…. do you and your family have a favorite “weeknight” meal you enjoy cooking?
Keith Law: She likes everything but knife work. I’ve made breaded/fried chicken cutlets, and she’ll do all the steps after I’ve cut the meat. She loves to roll out dough, too, whether for pasta, pizza, tortillas, or bread.

Biscuit: Noticed the scouting reports on Nola and Darvish…would you say it is more fun to scout major leaguer stars or budding minor league prospects? I think of it like mining a rough diamond (exhilarating because of the potential) versus viewing the final gemstone product (admirable in its beauty). That parallel only works if you actually value shiny stones but feel free to apply a corollary as you see fit.
Keith Law: Much more interesting to watch kids and mull over what they do well, what they need to improve, and how that improvement might come about. Darvish did not excite me. Watching the Phillies’ young guys was way more interesting.

Kevin: I know I am late to the question. But why don’t you do chats on ESPN.com anymore?
Keith Law: ESPN ended chats in August of … holy cow, 2015. I can’t believe I’ve been chatting here for two years.

Kevin: I love your taste in board games and your ranking lists. I’m going on a flight tomorrow, any new/current favorite mobile/iOS board game apps?
Keith Law: I reviewed Through the Ages the other day, have been playing Alhambra a bit (although I had a glitch the other day), still would go back to my old favorites like Carcassonne, Agricola, Caylus, Ticket to Ride, etc.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you as always for all of your questions and for reading. I should be back next Thursday for another chat as well. Enjoy your weekends.