I have a new boardgame review up at Paste, covering Days of Wonder’s medium-weight Yamatai, which has some clever mechanics that keeps all players’ moves connected. For Insiders, I have two new posts, my final minor league scouting post of the regular season plus a look at eight top 100 prospects who took steps backward in 2017.
Keith Law: Staccato signals of constant information: It’s Klawchat.
Trey: I know you’ve marked Chad Kuhl as a future reliever, and I’ve been with you on that. But each time he goes out I see a little more development and want to give him a longer shot. Any change on your opinion?
Keith Law: None. Still a two-pitch guy who has serious trouble with LHB.
Michael: With Gray, Hoffman, Freeland, Marquez, possibly Bettis, do the Rockies have a legitimate starting rotation? Or will they need to replace some of those guys?
Keith Law: Gray is the clear keeper of the group. Hoffman might just be a bad fit for Denver, given his flat fastball. Marquez is the most likely reliever of the group given his platoon split issues. Bettis I’ve always figured was more likely a reliever, but I’m rooting for him all the way now.
William: Is esteury ruiz the next Fernando tatis?
Keith Law: Ruiz is only one month younger than Tatis, so I’ll say no.
Angel: If you have the chance to put otani in your top prospects .. what rank you will put him?
Keith Law: Otani isn’t a prospect. He has several years of experience in NPB, Japan’s top league, and I don’t rank those guys as prospects.
Adam: Austin Hedges’ defensive prowess seems to have arrived as advertised. His bat, however, Is a bit underwhelming. How much does a strong defensive catcher have to hit to remain a starter?
Keith Law: He has power, and I think he’ll hit just enough to get to it and end up not just a starter but a good one because of all the defensive value he’ll bring.
Deke: Price-gouging laws: Good or bad? I’ve heard econ. experts say they are actually bad (low price means supply gets eliminated, means even fewer people can get the water or whatever), but I have a real hard time with “sorry, poor person, economics says that case of water is $80.”
Keith Law: I think it’s too hard for authorities to truly separate gouging from supply/demand-based price increases. And it’s true that in some market conditions, high prices can lead sellers to increase supply. The key of any such law would be to focus just on short-term price spikes caused by disasters or acts of God, where the economic benefit is unclear or nonexistent – such as, it’s not like suppliers could suddenly ship a bunch of food and water and gas to south Florida on no notice.
Mike: Why do teams sometimes put guys on the 10-day DL in September? What advantage does that provide now that the rosters are expanded?
Keith Law: I actually don’t know the answer to this.
Chris : I hate to nitpick as a Mets fan, but why does the FO allow TC to sit Dom Smith and Nimmo against lefties? Also, Cecchini is on the bench in favor of ABs for useless vets like Reyes and Cabrera. It drives me crazy that they can’t even suck properly.
Keith Law: The Cecchini stuff bugs me more. I’m OK with easing up on Nimmo, who’s always had trouble with LHP, or Smith, who has shown power but hasn’t made a ton of hard contact yet, right now. By next year, however, Smith needs to be playing every day and someone else needs to be the manager.
Adam: It has been speculated that Otani’s free agency will be a situation “where money almost literally isn’t a factor,” due to the new signing rules. But the difference between $300k and $10mil is still a lot of money, even for Otani, right?
Keith Law: Of course it is. Two thoughts on Otani: One, I saw absolutely nothing this week to indicate that he’s any more likely to be posted next month than he was a few days ago. There was one completely unsourced report out of Japan … and that’s it. He may very well come over, but this was a non-story. Two, a team can sign Otani to a short-term deal with a forced non-tender clause, which most NPB free agents had in their contracts, so they’d become MLB free agents after just three or four years here. Hell, if I were GM of a contender with the cap room, I’d offer Otani one year at the maximum allowed salary and agree to nontender him at the end of the year.
Chris : If I’m the Mets I’m fielding offers for deGrom this offseason. Their minors are a disaster and if they could command a Sale or even Gray-like return, they’d have to consider it. A 2018 playoff run just doesn’t look doable right now.
Keith Law: I agree. Pitching depth is gone. I don’t think the minors are “a disaster” but they’re not helping in 2018 beyond the guys already up.
Kelly : What’s your take on Cub’s pitcher Jen-Ho Tseng, and what are your thoughts on bringing in a young starter during a pennant race?
Keith Law: Pretty average stuff, always had a flat fastball in the low minors. He stopped missing bats this year but posted the best GB rate of his career, so perhaps there’s something new there. I don’t mind bringing in a young starter for important or high-leverage games, as long as it’s someone with command, rather than a stuff guy who’s still unfinished as a pitcher.
Devon: Have you heard anything about this supposed “power struggle” in the Braves FO? I hope the old guard of Schuerholz and Cox don’t think they can win the way they used to, with a top 5 payroll any more.
Keith Law: No. I said last week I thought that story was nonsense.
Bobby: Keith – Thanks, as always, for these chats. Re Chance Adams of Yanks system, it seems like you think he is a likely reliever. That said, I imagine you think it makes sense to keep him starting until he absolutely proves he can’t? Since he has more or less proved himself against minor league hitters what would you do w him if you were Cashman?
Keith Law: I’d spot start him in the majors, definitely. Unless there’s a health reason or absolutely no room at the inn, I’d always let a starter continue to start until he proves he can’t.
Bob Horse: Have you seen/heard anything about Jesus Luzardo since he returned from TJ? Early returns look promising for the A’s
Keith Law: Heard the stuff is all the way back, so yes, very promising.
Chris : Marcos Molina a starter or reliever?
Keith Law: Reliever. Stuff isn’t the same post-TJ and it’s not a good delivery for a starter.
Paul: Keith – see any of Gohara’s start last night? You weren’t lying when you said it’s an easy 98! Slider looks filthy too. Even in the first start, the numbers were ugly, but he got seriously squeezed on a few eventual walks that became his undoing. I’m excited!
Keith Law: I did, and yes, two plus pitches, chance for a third adequate one, has the size, still very young. I liked the trade for Atlanta at the time and like it even more now.
Nick Pappagiorgio: Right now, are Kershaw’s .47 ERA and .52 xFIP advantages and superior K/BB ratio (6.7 to 4.7) enough to offset his ~25 IP deficit to Scherzer for NL CY? (They’re even on WHIP and FIP.) Thank you!
Keith Law: I don’t see why K/BB ratio or WHIP would matter at all in this discussion. It’s how much you pitched and how well you prevented runs – which you can argue is measured by ERA or RA, or by stats like FIP that focus more on what the pitcher controls. (Don’t use xFIP.)
Craig: I see where the Brewers called up Aaron Wilkerson, possibly to take Jimmy Nelson’s spot in the rotation. His AA stats this year were great — does he have the stuff to start big league games right now?
Keith Law: Yep, potential 5th starter type, great story behind it too – wasn’t even the #1 on his own HS team, ended up at NAIA Cumberland, pitched in independent ball, Red Sox scouted him there and signed him
Nancy: What’s your outlook on Albert Almora? Can he be an every day above average regular. He’s walking a little this year and has continued to hit well and play great d.
Keith Law: I think the defense makes him an above average regular in time.
Jon: What do you make of Kevin Gausman’s season? Has been electric the 2nd half. But we saw that at points last year as well. Is 2018 his year to put it all together?
Keith Law: In starts where he’s on the 1b side of the rubber, he’s been generally outstanding. Just leave him the hell alone already.
Leo: My early view of the 2018 draft is that it has a lot of depth but not much up top. A lot of HSers that project to be ok and high-floor college arms. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Don’t agree. Better HS crop than that, worse college arm crop. No Bryce Harper types at the top but good talent in the top ten overall.
DR: Is Pache a borderline top 100 guy? How much power does he have to hit for to be a top guy?
Keith Law: I think he’ll end up a future top 100 guy. The power is in there, but he’s shown none, obviously, so it’ll be hard to justify (to myself, even) ranking him above players with a little less ceiling but more production closer to the majors.
Esq: Sorry cut off earlier. Early reports on manning were that stuff was down. He looked dominant later in season. Has he returned to his top ten pick form?
Keith Law: Stuff was down pretty much all summer. At least he started throwing more strikes after he looked like he might have the yips in spring training.
Alyssa: Is AJ Reed a prime trade candidate? Seems hard for HOU to find him AB’s at the big league level but had another monster year in Fresno. He just has to play, right?
Keith Law: Agreed.
Leo: Nick Williams hasn’t really slowed down. He’s running a high BABIP though in a small sample…is his season encorauging at least?
Keith Law: Not to me – same poor pitch recognition as ever.
Brad : Hey Keith! It really looks like Giolito had turned the corner. I don’t know if he will ever be a true ace but I think there is a good chance he is at least a solid #2 or a really good #3. Do you think this is another on the list of Don Cooper doing his magic or where his issues only minor mechanical ones?
Keith Law: Cooper and others deserve credit for restoring Giolito’s old mechanics. It’s still not 100% – he didn’t look like himself yesterday after a couple of starts where he really did look like the pre-2016 version – but I’m fine projecting him as a 2 or better.
Yu: Can Yu Cheng Chang become an everyday SS or does he need a trade for that to happen?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. Not sure he’s going to hit enough for that – it’s not a great swing and he lacks the hand strength for it just now.
Ron: Is this Michael Taylor putting everything together and is it sustainable? Numbers are substantially better than his first few seasons. Were improvements made or is it a flash in the pan?
Keith Law: It’s not entirely sustainable, but he’s a plus defender with pop. I doubt he’s a .364 BABIP guy (or close to it) going forward but he does enough else to stay a regular for someone.
Hinkie: Can you please explain what MLB means when it says it “intends to be vigilant in enforcing the rules and will scrutinize any efforts to skirt them” when it comes to the Shohei Otani Sweepstakes. Is this even serious or will some team still have an “under the table” long term arrangement with Otani ?
Keith Law: No idea how MLB can stop anyone who doesn’t explicitly violate the CBA.
Yu: Is Rogelio Armenteros more than a back end starter?
Keith Law: Probably not, but given how little it cost to sign him, that would be an incredible outcome.
Jordan : Is Jordan Hicks a starter or reliever? Are this season’s stats cause for optimism?
Keith Law: Starter for me, with some performance risk. Huge upside.
Ethan: Hi Keith, I really appreciate these chats, as they are a highlight for me each week. I am a huge Padres fan and am excited about the future but am also assessing a couple of glaring holes with position players. Does Franchy Cordero have chance to be an everyday LF on a good team or more of a 4th OF? And who would you prefer more at 2B – Luis Urias, Asuaje or Spangenberg? Thanks again!
Keith Law: Urias has the best potential to be a regular at 2b, but needs to find more power than he’s ever shown. Cordero chance for a regular, more likely an extra guy, but young enough that there’s a wide range of outcomes.
Denis: Will Mitch White crack the top 100 prospects next year?
Keith Law: He made my top 50 in April and wasn’t far off the midseason list (which included recently signed draftees).
Pat: The Orioles’ approach to Austin Hays this month is obviously strange. But that aside, how likely is he to be an acceptable everyday RF on Opening Day 2018? Because I think that’s where it’s headed.
Keith Law: It’s not just strange – it’s ridiculous. Don’t add a guy to the 40-man two years early if you’re not going to play him. I do think he’s a regular for them at some point next year.
Ted: Given some of the technical flaws you’ve noted on Moncada’s swing, would he be better off focusing on hitting from one side of the plate? Any word on whether the White Sox will look for him to pick righty or lefty?
Keith Law: Too inexperienced to give up on him switch-hitting just now. It’s like the starter/reliever question earlier – my job is to forecast what I think a player will do or become, whereas the team has more incentive to play it out and see if the improbable outcome ends up occurring.
Blank: What’s your opinion on the Jemele Hill situation?
Keith Law: I stand with Jemele unequivocally. I particularly support her right to say what she did. And I find the very White House trying to silence a smart black woman of color very disturbing.
Tony P (@disguyyy): I’ll try not to hit enter (again) and end up just saying “Hi”. I’m sure you are getting a ton of these today, but hopefully I can ask in an original manner. Do you feel pressure, whether it be from yourself, co-workers or those of us who are fans of your willingness to speak truth or even opinion (gasp!) in an environment that does not encourage it, to defend people who even though they may have a higher profile in that environment, historically could benefit greatly from your verbal support? How do you determine when to speak up and when to let the situation settle itself? Thanks, as always.
Keith Law: I’m just going to be me. If I think I need to say something, I’ll say it. Evolution is real, vaccines are safe and effective, climate change is real and caused by man, chemtrails aren’t a thing, the earth is round, we did go to the moon, and open borders are good for the economy.
Paul: Hey Keith – I enjoyed your Dunkirk review and agreed with it across the board. One thing you didn’t mention that really jumped out to me – I thought the sound throughout the movie was amazing. Kept me on the edge of my seat – a euphemism that in this case was literally true – for 90 minutes straight.
Keith Law: I thought it was mixed too loud, at least where I saw it; I found some of the battle noise distracting to the point where I wasn’t paying enough attention to the on-screen action. But that could just be me.
Mike: Disappointing years for Jays pitching prospects: which of Greene, Harris and SRF are most likely to rebound?
Keith Law: I hear the best comments on Greene and the least favorable on Harris. I didn’t get to see any this year, unfortunately.
Andy: Would you rather have rhys hoskins or yoan moncada?
Keith Law: I’d still roll the dice on Moncada’s upside even knowing that Hoskins is probably no worse than an average major-league regular.
Rob : Why do left handed hitters seem to more often have such extreme splits against left handed pitching than right handed hitters do against right handed pitchers? Or is that a narrative baseball people have implanted in our heads?
Keith Law: It’s very true, and I think it’s a function of LHB seeing so few decent LHP as amateurs or low-minors prospects.
Mark: Was pleasantly surprised to read your scouting report on Tate. If he reaches his ceiling, can we expect a solid #2 or very good #3?
Keith Law: It’s #2 stuff and #4/5 kind of not-missing-bats results. I’m cautiously optimistic, though. I don’t think this is Nate Eovaldi, where the velocity is good but there’s nothing else. Tate’s fastball has life and he does have two decent offspeed pitches.
Owen: What was Dusty Baker thinking last night leaving Scherzer in for 120 pitches with the division locked up and his ace clearly tired?
Keith Law: The last inning was probably pushing it. I don’t think 120 is an automatic negative with Scherzer, given his age, size, durability, etc., but he might have been fatigued at teh very end.
Justin: What do you make of Tyler Glasnow? He seemed to fix his control problems in AAA after making a few adjustments, then pitched in MLB last night and was awful. I’m not giving up on him, but I was just curious what your current thoughts on him are.
Keith Law: Losing faith that he’ll ever have the command and control to be a starter. It’s ace stuff, but I don’t think he’s ever had a delivery that he could repeat. It does look better today than it did in March, when I compared his delivery to Bert doing the pigeon.
Owen: Thomas Boswell made a comparison between Michael A. Taylor and Mike Cameron the other day (excellent defensive CFs who didn’t break out offensively until 26, and they do show up on each other’s B-R comps by age). Fair comparison? Semi-fair? Outrageous?
Keith Law: Very fair. Similar skill sets across the board – power, speed, hard contact, strikeouts. Is Taylor as big as Cameron? I only saw Cam up close when he retired, while Daz was an amateur, and holy cow he was huge.
Denis: Which prospects are you most looking forward to seeing in AFL?
Keith Law: I’m not joking when I say all of them. It’s one of the best things I do every year. I’m like Homer in the Land of Chocolate.
Mr. Red: Is Jose Siri a legit prospect or just a guy who had a really nice hot streak? Follow-up: can you answer without making an iphone Siri joke? I’ll hang up and listen.
Keith Law: Legit prospect. But I hear he doesn’t recognize faces.
Jon V : There is talk of Tito going with a 14 position player roster for the playoffs. Do you like this strategy or is there a big risk you tax your staff if one of your starters has a bad outing?
Keith Law: If you have the right relievers, guys who can go multiple innings, then you can do this, easily.
Patty O’Furniture: Do you believe in Austin Riley yet? Hit .315 with 8 bombs once he got to AA
Keith Law: With a .393 BABIP, way above anything he’d done before. Not sure why you’re just ignoring the bad performance in high-A, either.
Daniel: Most intriguing Starting pitching prospect in Yankees system?
Keith Law: Loaisiga or Abreu.
Tracy: Keith, you mentioned last week what you do with all the books you read and it finally made me realize that not only do I enjoy reading, I am also a bibliophile — I enjoy the physical experience of reading and holding a book, hardcovers in particular (forget e-books). Does that make me a snob?
Keith Law: If it does, I’m a booksnob too. Although I do read probably 15-20 ebooks a year, and maybe a dozen audiobooks, on top of 70+ physical books.
John: Heard that the cubs thought alzolay had surpassed cease as a prospect? Do you agree with that assessment?
Keith Law: You probably heard that from me when they traded Cease.
Tom: What are your thoughts on Zack Godley? Is this season indicative of his talents, or is it just a fluke?
Keith Law: CB is much better than I’d ever heard it was, or even remember seeing on TV before this year. So I think it’s fairly real.
Angelo: Enjoyed your review of Yamataii. How is it as a two player game?
Keith Law: Plays well with two, best with three, four is crazy but good-crazy because you’re competing for space.
Brian: How much do you look into why people do bad things, and does that affect your opinion of them? I know everyone can change but it seems MUCH harder to do for some. I’m thinking of how you say people can’t be rehabilitated if they commit certain crimes (e.g. rape). What if that person grew up in a household where rape was common? Even if society says it’s wrong, all the people you’re looking up to (e.g. parents) are either participating or are observers, which can result in you thinking – even for once in your life – that it’s ok to do.
Keith Law: Many violent criminals were themselves victims. That should affect how our justice system approaches them, but the prevailing belief in the field is that such people – pedophiles, people with violent paraphilias – can’t be ‘fixed,’ either.
Ben: What World Series matchup are you hoping for? I think Indians-Dodgers would be a lot of fun.
Keith Law: I think that or Cleveland/Nats would be the best for fans in general – meaning, if your team isn’t in the WS, what pair of clubs would most make you want to watch?
Chris: Thanks for your Trenton writeup, it’s exactly what I was hoping for when I sent you that tweet. So, is Thairo worth a 40-man spot? Likely to be popped in Rule 5 (I know, you love Rule 5 talk), but behind tons of middle infielders and utiility guys arent that hard to find.
Keith Law: I’d probably protect him – I think he’s taken for sure – but maybe that means he’s trade bait for them in November?
Bert Stanton: Hey Keith, I appreciate all of the work you do. Would you grade Kyle Tucker’s current/future hit and power tools any differently now than you did this past offseason?
Keith Law: I don’t remember where I graded them last offseason (if I did); I would say I think as much power as there is now, there’s at least another full grade in there. He’s still a good distance from his physical peak.
David: Will we get read your thoughts on Dillon Tate’s start at some point?
Keith Law: Posted this morning, and the link is at the top of this post.
Bort: Are you buying shares in Max Fried?
Keith Law: I see above-average CB and CH, average or better FB, below command, good athlete, needs time but no physical reason he can’t be a good three-pitch starter.
Chris: Gut feeling by ASB next year: Andujar at 3B, Gleyber at 2B, Headley playing some first and Castro traded. Seem reasonable?
Keith Law: Gleyber at 2B is a waste of his defensive ability. Andujar at 3b works for me, though. Good player, may never get the hype he deserves because he’s behind bigger prospects in that system.
TK: One more note on Dunkirk and the sound: that’s the first movie I can remember with almost no silence. Maybe only a couple seconds before the end of the movie. Plus, Hans Zimmer’s use of the Shepard tones created the effect of rising tension throughout that had people (literally and metaphorically) on the edge of their seats.
Keith Law: And now I have a page saved for later reading about Shepard tones.
TK: I think you mentioned before you have the NL ROY vote again this year, so I don’t know how much you can comment on this, but has Josh Bell’s defense improved at all this year? Fangraphs WAR has his defense at -11.5! Is there any hope for him to become at least average at first? Or is his future back in the outfield or, sigh, at DH with an AL team?
Keith Law: That’s misleading. His UZR, the main defensive metric used by Fangraphs, is -2.1, so two runs below average at first base. The -11.5 figure includes the positional adjustment for first base. It’s saying he’s a slightly below-average defensive first baseman, and I’d say that matches the eye test – not average, maybe even a tick worse than the -2.1 indicates (first base defense isn’t well captured by defensive metrics yet), but playable.
Owen: Follow-up: Mike Cameron listed at 6’2″, 210. Michael A. Taylor at 6’3″, 210, although his face makes him look like his mom is expecting him to come home from the park for dinner.
Keith Law: OK, Mike Cameron was not 210 at age ~40, I can promise you that.
Jshep12: Do you now feel like Serverino’s change up is good enough to keep him in a starting roll or do you still see him as a reliever going forward?
Keith Law: I never had an issue with his changeup – it was his best pitch when he was in low-A. He didn’t have much of a slider till this year, and now he has one, it’s really hard, and he throws it a ton.
Michael: Looking for a board game rec for my 4yo. She’s mastered UNO and Sorry. Any suggestions so she can continue to develop strategic sense?
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride First Journey is good for that 4-8 age range. A reader said yesterday on twitter that the youth version of Carcassonne is good too.
David: Could we get a few words on Jonathan Loaisiga? Really interesting to hear you mention him over some more widely-known low-minors Yankee pitching prospects.
Keith Law: Also in that post linked above…
Brian: Corey Knebel the long term solution for the Brewers at closer? Or would you look to flip him for an impact bat?
Keith Law: Every closer on a non-contender – well, the Brewers are contenders and builders at the same time – should be considered trade bait. The attrition rate on closers is too high.
Connor: Is Nick Allen already a MLB-caliber SS?
Keith Law: No.
JR: Have we become numb to mass shootings? Last weekend guy shot his ex wife and 7 others at a football watching party, yesterday there was a shooting at a spokane high school. Feels like as they have become more common, media coverage and talk about it goes way down, which is scary.
Keith Law: We’ve become numb – someone tweeted after the failure of gun control legislation after Sandy Hook that the battle was over, that if 20 dead kids couldn’t move the needle, nothing will – and we’ve also been overwhelmed by the constant scandal, controversy, and policy nightmares of the current Administration.
Austin: Thoughts on the Cleveland Indians?
Keith Law: They’re good.
Jeff: I notice that you do not use the Indians nickname (see Cleveland/Nats above). Anything the team could do to redeem the nickname in your view? Perhaps something like this:
1) Announce that regardless of the historical origin (which is murky) of the nickname from the 1910s, going forward the Indians are named to honor Louis Sockalexis.
2) Eliminate Chief Wahoo and hire a task force of Native American artists to design a new logo.
Keith Law: Yeah, they could fucking drop it because it’s racist garbage.
kmill: Keith, I live on the island of St. John and made it off the day before Irma hit. I know you are aware of the issues we are facing and help needed. You and your readers help spreading awareness is greatly appreciated. The US in USVI stands for United States, we are part of this country and should receive equal benefits for disaster relief. thanks
Keith Law: I’ve sent $100 to St. John’s Rescue, and the little boardgame sale I announced in my newsletter already raised $90 that I sent to Tim Duncan’s Youcaring fund for USVI relief. I know not everyone has the ability to give, but if you do, please consider those funds – those two islands need our help. So do Barbuda and St. Martin, but the USVI are particularly dependent on us to help, and there are thousands of people there who’ll need shelter, food, and basics just to resume their lives.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and for reading. I should be back next Thursday on schedule for another chat. Enjoy your weekends!