Klawchat 8/24/17.

My 5000-word GenCon wrapup piece, including a ranking of the top 20 new games I saw/played/demoed there, is now up at Paste.

Keith Law: Three words we shared said too early on: This is Klawchat.

Lee D: Keith, with half of the Dodgers’ best pitchers on the DL but coming off soon, and Rich Hill’s amazing game last night, how would you line up their starters for the playoffs?
Keith Law: Kershaw and Darvish (who I think wasn’t really hurt, just stashed on the 10-day DL like the Dodgers have been doing all year) would be the 1-2. If Hill’s healthy and Wood isn’t, Hill is the 3. I’m not that optimistic about Wood; he’s been out twice with this shoulder injury, and he’s got a long history of DL time.

Seath: What do you make of Royce Lewis promotion to Low A? He seems to be doing well (SSS). I know lot of people in MN were upset they didn’t go for Greene.
Keith Law: Seems aggressive. If he’s really that advanced a bat, then it’s not a bad idea to get him a cup of coffee there since he’ll play there next year … but if he’s not that advanced, then there’s the risk he’ll be overmatched. I did not think this spring that he was that advanced a bat.

Bobby: KLAW – Again, thanks for these chats. Love them. I know in the past you have suggested Severino is an elite reliever for you rather than a starter. Obv seems like he is a legit starter now (which is fine – no one can be right 100% of time) but do you think he is? Has he fixed something or is it still likely he ends up in ‘pen in your opinion?
Keith Law: Two things look different – he got a LOT bigger, and his slider improved a lot. The slider was a below-average pitch for him in the minors and not that effective for him in the majors till this year, but it’s been his best pitch by Fangraphs’ pitch values this year and he’s throwing it more than 1/3 of the time. The three-pitch mix is elite for a starter, but I can’t think of a starter who had his sort of delivery and held up over time.

addoeh: How big of a disadvantage is there for a left handed third baseman, short stop, and catcher?
Keith Law: I think it’s huge for a shortstop or 3b, irrelevant for a catcher – but as I said on the podcast today, a LH catcher with arm strength ends up on the mound.

Kirkie: Daniel Johnson, at Potomac. 20+HR, 20+steals across lo and hi A ball. and apparently all 3 outfield positions with a cannon of an arm too.
Keith Law: Saw him. Not a centerfielder, not even close. Way too old for low-A, and questionable pitch recognition when I saw him there.

Kris: Any chance of Jordan Zimmermann rebounding from this two year downward trend in performance?
Keith Law: No, I think he’s likely done as an effective starter.

Michael: Hi Klaw- Looking to the future for the Phils infield, would you trade Franco and have the 2B-SS-3B positions manned by some combo of Hernandez, Kingery, Crawford and Galvis?
Keith Law: Would Franco have much trade value? I think Galvis is the guy you trade, with Kingery/Crawford the DP combo going forward.

Mike: do you believe splitters rob starting pitchers of velocity? is that why it fell out of favor?
Keith Law: I believe that people in the industry believe that. I do not know of any evidence to support it.

Guest: Tyler Glasnow has been blowing away Triple A for the past month. Is he destined to be one of those guys that is just too good for Triple A but whose command isn’t good enough to get MLB hitters out?
Keith Law: I think he can eventually be more than that, but what you described is what he is now.

Jerry: Has it sunk in yet that you (and ESPN) played a role in helping Trump get elected? Feel free to apologize.
Keith Law: That’s quite a take.

Joe: What keeps Forrest Whitely from having a ceiling above #2/3?
Keith Law: He’s a future ace. Disregard what I said in chat last week.

Dog: Nick Williams’ first exposure to MLB seems to be going pretty well offensively, but I noticed on BaseballReference that his WAR is only 0.1 because he is at -0.9 defensively, which almost outweighs his offensive contributions. Is his defense truly that bad, or is that small sample size noise?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen him enough in the majors to comment on that; I saw him a lot in the minors and thought he had poor instincts, but had athleticism to make up for some of it, and I know of multiple scouts who thought he’d be above average in a corner or playable in CF. (I don’t think I ever wrote that he would be those things. He’s one of the least instinctive players I’ve scouted.)

Dog: Jesse Winker has always seemed like Joey Votto without the power, which still would be a valuable player. Do you think his profile will work long-term in the majors or will he need to add power to be effective (notwithstanding that he’s slugging over .500 in his small sample size so far).
Keith Law: I think he’s strong enough to slug in the .400s regularly with a ton of doubles. He’s not weak; he just doesn’t have much HR power or the swing for it.

Phils Guy: Have you ever tried substituting a sweet (Vidalia) onion for a savory (white or yellow) onion in a recipe? My wife made a french onion tart using a Vidalia onion and it was good, but the balance between sweet and savory wasn’t what we expected.
Keith Law: I never buy Vidalias for that very reason.

Minnie: Would you suspect that the White Sox had the option of either Moncada or Devers as the centerpiece of the Sale deal and that knowing what they knew at the time they made the correct decision?
Keith Law: I don’t know if they had the choice. I would have chosen Devers in that situation, which was reflected in my prospect rankings at the time.

JJ: Does Blake Swihart need a change of organization, has the prospect ship sailed, or is this just a year of bad luck? The Red Sox always seemed strangely indifferent toward his potential success.
Keith Law: He might need a trade so he can go to a team that will just let him play regularly … I can’t believe he’s just forgotten how to hit after he hit so well in the high minors before last year. Boston isn’t likely to be in a position to hand him a regular job next year, though, and that’s what he really needs.

Tony: What kind of player do you project Ian Happ to be? Really good power but poor plate discipline this year. Also might be the worst imposter located in center field but that’s not his fault…
Keith Law: I strongly disagree that he has poor plate discipline. I think he has some contact issues, but he’s not a hacker or impatient. He’ll work deep counts and strike out too often.

silv: DJ Peters won the Cal League MVP. Big pop, big kid, big Ks, young for the level (though not super young). Thoughts on his outlook?
Keith Law: Good hitter’s park too. Good chance for an above average regular in RF/LF with some risk because of the contact issues you mentioned.

Greg: I am looking for beginner games for my 3 year old son. He loves Animal Upon Animal. Anything else to recommend?
Keith Law: Chicken Cha-Cha-Cha was a favorite of my daughter’s at that age. He’s not too far from Ticket to Ride: First Journey either.

Jesse: Do you expect Luis Robert to start next season at low A ball?
Keith Law: Probably. I guess low-A or high-A would work, but I’d start him at the lower level since he’ll be coming from the DSL.

Nick: What’s your opinion of Jesus Sanchez? Seems like other younger guys who have over the last year become industry consensus top 100 prospects have been written about more (e.g. Tatis, Bichette, Alvarez, Florial). Is Sanchez on par with guys? If the power comes, seems like he could be a star at the plate?
Keith Law: Florial’s not a top 100 guy for me; Sanchez probably will be. Florial’s tooled up with huge swing and miss issues; Sanchez is much less toolsy but projects to a plus hit tool.

Jim: I really enjoyed the recent podcasts you hosted. It’s wonderful to be able to experience you in that format rather than on the twitter cesspool.
Keith Law: Thank you – it was fun to do those. And yes, it’s a much better format for humor and snark than Twitter.

Tyler: Forget command, any chance Josh Staumont ever gains control?
Keith Law: Delivery is clean. It’s not mechanical; it’s mental.

Sean: Any thoughts from a scouting perspective on whether Delmonico can be an average to above average bat?
Keith Law: I thought so when he was much younger, but didn’t know if he had a position at all. Then he wasn’t good, got suspended, was released … and has been a little more like predraft reports since the White Sox signed him. I think it’s fair to think he could end up a low-average power bat with some OBP skills, a fringe regular who’ll play for the White Sox now but maybe get passed by better prospects later.

Evan: Is Max Fried a long term starter for the Braves or has he been shuffled back in the pack because of an awful 2017?
Keith Law: Still think he’s a starter. Too athletic, too good a pitch mix to give up on that.
Keith Law: Bummed he was sent out – they play here next week and I was hoping to go see him.

Mike : Have you gotten to watch any of Hoskins since his call up? What are your thoughts on how he’s adjusting?
Keith Law: I’ve seen more highlights than full at bats. Does seem like he’s doing a good job taking the right pitches and getting himself into good counts. I think he’s a 55 – an above-average regular – for a good long while.

Jeremy: Hey Klaw, think I’m going to spring for KingDomino thanks to your review. Looks fun!
Keith Law: Enjoy! I like it quite a bit even though it’s a lighter game than I usually like.

Tyler Smith: Should Ronald Acuna be in the majors right now?
Keith Law: No, but I bet he’s up in a week or so.

Luke: I saw where you seemed to really like the Cities of Splendor expansions? How much of a difference to they make in strategy and gameplay?
Keith Law: I played three of the four; two of those just layer something on the base game (Cities and Trading Posts) that really fits in well with the basic concept. Strongholds changes the game a lot – you get to put a temporary block or hold on a card on the table, and if someone else wants that card, they have to remove your stronghold(s) first. I thought that made the game more interactive, but in a cutthroat way.

The Average Sports Fan: Do you think Nick Senzel can play 2b?
Keith Law: This would surprise me.

Jeff: Hey Keith, love your work. Do you think Jerimiah Estrada has front line potential or do you think it’s too early to predict at the moment. Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t think he does.

Franc: From a hitting (ok, fine, fantasy) perspective, who would you rather have moving forward, Josh Bell or Dominic Smith?
Keith Law: Love both, probably Bell for higher power ceiling.

Philip: What kind of reports have you gotten on Logan Allen (Padres)?
Keith Law: Glowing.

Mick: Might it be a good sign that baseball is becoming more popular in Italy w/ them being the Euro/Africa rep for the past two years?
Keith Law: I hope so, if only to get a scouting trip there once before I retire.

Will: I don’t feel generally depressed or anxious, but the state of politics is overwhelmingly depressing.
Keith Law: I would agree with the latter half of that statement.

Lukas: Has Blake Snell turned the corner? Or still too small a sample of good pitching to say?
Keith Law: Too small a sample, but it’s a nice sign. I’m still a fan.

Erix: How much should I make of stories of hitters’ improvements due to improved vision? Danny Jansen started wearing glasses this season and is raking, but also is healthy for the first time ever
Keith Law: I think it’s the latter. Jays people have talked him up for two years but he’s always been hurt.

Will: What is antifa? I have my own suspicions (false equivalence of the far right), but I’d like to hear you.
Keith Law: “Antifa” is the word the far right/Nazi sympathizers like to use to try to distract from their own misdeeds. I don’t think it actually exists any more than “alt-left” does.

Chris: What kind of contract do you see Eric Hosmer getting this winter?
Keith Law: More than I thought in May … but not much more. The number of teams with the need for a 1b and the money to pay him remains quite small, and his career record isn’t great for a 1b’s bat.

Alex R : Hey Keith, I’m wondering if you’ve heard anything about fellow Long Islander Kyle Young. 6’11 LHP with a 57/12 K/BB ratio this season. Is he a guy?
Keith Law: He’s a maybe.

Bob: Hoskins just hit his 8th home run. I know you were a bit higher on him than others. What do you see as his ceiling?
Keith Law: See above – but I concede I never saw this kind of power coming. I thought he was Goldschmidt Lite, not Full Goldschmidt.

Sean: What’s going on with Trent Clark this year?
Keith Law: That whole lineup has gone flat. Ray is striking out a ton, Erceg hasn’t hit close to expectations. I don’t have a good answer.

Greg: How would you rank Atlanta’s Rome trio of Bryse Wilson, Ian Anderson and Joey Wentz?
Keith Law: Anderson, Wilson, Wentz. Case for Wilson over Anderson.

MJ: I picked up Great Western Trail based mostly on your positive review a while back. I’ve only played it twice (and only with 2 players) but it seems as though the best strategy to win is to focus on buying all the best cows. Is that what you’ve found as well (assuming you’ve played it more and/or with more players than I have)?
Keith Law: I thought a broader strategy mattered – don’t ignore the workers, especially. But I haven’t played it a ton. The only downside to being a reviewer is that I don’t go back to great games as often as I’d like.

Raphael: Curious, how come there was no ranking for best command in your write up like last year?
Keith Law: No reason.

J: This is a semi-question and semi-statement, hopefully reasonably cogent and not too reductive. Venezuela is in the process of collapse. Do you know if MLB is doing anything to help players/players’ families/any involvement at all? Or in lieu of that, are you hearing anything about what players are doing? As I track Ronald Acuna’s (and Jose Altuve’s) incredible seasons, I keep thinking of what awaits them at home. This may be too much of a question for a chat, but been on my mind for a while.
Keith Law: I don’t know of anything other than telling teams not to send personnel there. Some agents in VZ brought prospects to Aruba a month ago for a workout to compensate. MLB should really make this formal if they care at all about the pipeline and the welfare of both players and scouts.

Patrick: How concerned are you by Moncada’s astronomical K-rate in the majors? I know you’ve typically been lower on him than other writers due to your concerns about swing mechanics. Do you think he’s more first-division regular than star?
Keith Law: This is in line with my expectations and, I think, everything I’ve written about him the last year or so. He’s going to take some time. He’s also a pretty sick athlete and I wouldn’t put anything out of his reach either – he just has specific mechanical and approach problems that have to change.

Greg Bird fan: He probably doesn’t get much playing time with the Yankees, but do you see Jake Cave as an everyday player somewhere? He seems to be having a really solid year.
Keith Law: I don’t – more of an extra guy.

Dog: Do you think the Rays will give Brendan McKay a real shot at being a two-way player? If not, do you think he ends up as a pitcher or 1B, long term?
Keith Law: They say they will. I think eventually he’ll end up at one or the other. I feel like either is a real possibility now.

J: You’re the Colorado Rockies. Where do you start McMahon and Rodgers in 2018? And what do you do with Lucroy?
Keith Law: Lucroy is a free agent. McMahon could be their first baseman on Opening Day. Rodgers has to go back to double-A, and shouldn’t be promoted until he’s hit some specific targets for patience and plate discipline. He can hit, he has some pop, he can play short, but you can’t send him to the PCL until he’s shown he can work the count.

Trini: Dillon Tate – does he project as a starter or reliever?
Keith Law: Starter possible again. He’s regained some of the lost velocity.

mike: I’ve read some websites say Vlad Jr could see some MLB time next year, that would be rushing him through levels wouldn’t it?
Keith Law: I think he and Tatis could both see the majors next year.

Nate: Keith, am I crazy for thinking Alec Hansen could be a top 50 guy in the offseason?
Keith Law: Yes, you are crazy, and that’s only one reason of many.

Brian : I know he is old for the FSL despite being drafted this year but Rooker is off to a great start. Do you think he can be a league average player?
Keith Law: Yep, that’s probably the best case scenario because he might be a DH and won’t be an asset on the field. More likely an up-and-down guy, but everyday player is possible.

Grant: Would would happen to Twitter if Trump was banned from tweeting?
Keith Law: I think it would hurt their business substantially. A lot of users – granted, a lot of users I wouldn’t miss – would probably quit the service.

M.D. Pepper : Jarred Kelenic, all five-tools average or better?
Keith Law: Not at all.

Rhys Hoskins: I just homered again. That’s 8 in 15 games. Can I keep this up?
Keith Law: There is no way you can homer while also submitting chat questions. It’s just not possible.

Lilith: How do Ethan Hankins and Kumar Rocker compare to Hunter Greene? Is it close at all?
Keith Law: All pretty different. Greene is the best athlete and was younger on draft day. Rocker is already filled out with a body like a 23-year-old. Hankins is the most polished pitcher of the three for his age.

Saxton: Did you see anything at GenCon (besides Kingdomino, which we already have and enjoy) that would be good to play with a 7 year old daughter? Thanks for the chats and all your other writing!
Keith Law: Please read the long writeup I posted at Paste, which I think has a bunch of games that might fit, but Kerala comes to mind as something light, easy to learn, and still fun for adults.

Logic: Who survives in the Angelos/Duquette/Showalter triangle? Compared to their predecessors it has worked well. But it seems unlikely to continue.
Keith Law: Only one thing can stop Angelos, so of the three, I bet Showalter topples Duquette and survives into next year.

Dave: What happened with the Astros at the trade deadline? Was it just a simple matter of them not wanting to give up their top prospects?
Keith Law: What was the benefit to them trading top prospects when they had already sealed up the division? It made no sense to give up that much value.

John: What do you think of Tatis’ promotion to AA? Do you think this is a temporary end of season trip, or does he have a chance to start there beginning of next season?
Keith Law: Chance to start there, but also chance to promote him and still extend his season into September because San Antonio is headed to the playoffs (and Lake Elsinore isn’t).

Archie: Is it unreasonable to be optimistic that Derek Hill has started to hit since returning from TJ, or did he just take advantage of a level he should have mastered a year or two ago?
Keith Law: Not unreasonable at all. Glad they bumped him up to high-A; the development plan should be for him to reach double-A next July, assuming he continues to hit in high-A, since he’ll play at 22 next year.

Zack: Is Michael Hermosillo anything more than a Quad-A player?
Keith Law: I think so. Chance for a regular.

Teddy: Is it better to throw 85 pitches in one day once a week, or throw 35-50 pitches every other day for a couple of weeks? Just asking so I know when the 6’2″ kid from NC in Williamsport can expect to have his arm explode.
Keith Law: I don’t know. That’s a good question but I don’t know the answer.

Grant: What’s Jose Siri’s projection?
Keith Law: Why don’t you ask her?

dan: You had a follower ask if the padres 2016 draft is just meh based off the results so far? Its mind boggling. Quantrill, Lauer, Lucchesi will probably all be in the rotation at some point (granted, it will be back end), Hudson Potts is really young, and performing better. Reggie Lawson has been good. Mason Thompson is still very intriguing. This looks like a good draft at this point. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: This is how I feel about it too.

Ike: Is Mitchell white a top 50 prospect by seasons end? Seems to have a nice #2/3 profile.
Keith Law: He was on my top 50 in April, just missed in July, probably makes it or is very very close in January due to promotions ahead of him.

Andrew: Gammons said a few days ago that someone who he respects thinks Whitley is the best pitching prospect in baseball. Agree or disagree?
Keith Law: Agree. He’s on the short list for that – him, Kopech, Buehler, Keller.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you observe National Waffle Day or are you of different faith? If so, savory or sweet?
Keith Law: I didn’t know that was today. I love waffles – I make big batches and freeze them to toast and eat like bread. Savory/sweet, doesn’t matter. What matters is that you put a ton of fat in them. My recipe is about 1 3/4 cups of flours and 12 tbsp of butter + oil.

Ryan: What are your thoughts on Byron Buxton? Overall numbers don’t look great due to the first month of the year but if you take that out he looks pretty good. Is he finally turning into the player many thought he’d be in the big leagues?
Keith Law: I believe so. I said on Twitter that he’s a star and I stand by it: He’s the best defensive CF in baseball and he’s showing enough progress at the plate that I’m very, very confident he’s becoming the player I forecasted he’d be (and so did everyone else … this isn’t just me).

Lance: Has any regular ever had more HR’s than doubles like Smoak?
Keith Law: That has happened over 500 times since 2000 according to Baseball-Reference’s Play Index. Smoak is at 34 HR and 22 2B, a ratio of 1.54; there have been 116 player-seasons with a HR/2B ratio over 1.5 in that span. Hoskins, however, takes the cake: 8 HR, 0 2B, for an undefined HR/2B ratio.

Hogie: Wilmer Difo has done well filling in for the Nats this season. Everyday regular at SS for someone?
Keith Law: Everyday regular somewhere for someone.

Claw: Keith – Acuna is tearing up AAA – regarding the levels, was he seeing better pitching at AA or AAA?
Keith Law: This is small sample noise.

Justin: Klaw, loved your Gen Con review. Can’t believe I didn’t know about Cities of Splendor, but it is now at the top of my list. I’m also curious about Ancestree. Based on how you ranked it, I presume it’s pretty good. I’ve played one other lineage-creating game, “Legacy: Testament of Duke de Crecy,” and while generally enjoyable, I found that a “birth complication” mechanism, where the player might choose whether to save the mother or child, to be an uncomfortable element. Can you comment on whether Ancestree has any such off-putting elements that one might imagine could be present in a lineage-creating board game?
Keith Law: Nah, in Ancestree you’re just laying tiles, never removing, never worrying about stuff like you describe. It’s light.

Ben: Have you ever read “Cutting for Stone” by Abraham Verghese?
Keith Law: No – but I’ve had folks recommend it to me.

Marcus: Tyler Beede has been having a disappointing season in Sacramento. Cause for concern about the Giants’ top pitching prospect or is it just taking awhile for him to adjust to the level?
Keith Law: It’s also a tough place to pitch (the PCL in general, less specifically Sacramento). He had 5 starts where he gave up 5 or more earned runs; four came in severe hitters’ parks, one at home. I’m really only concerned/surprised that he hasn’t missed more bats. He’s also been on the DL for a month with a groin injury.

Russ: Thoughts on the decrease in age at which baseball recruiting is falling to. Seeing 8th graders verbally commit. Also seeing colleges w/ 17-22 player signing classes and having 22-25 returning players. 2nd time through this process, and it has changed in 3-4 years.
Keith Law: The NCAA, which has never done the right thing ever, should ban such “verbal commitments,” which are worth about as much as anything you’ve flushed down your toilet in the last 24 hours.

JR: Conforto just hurt himself swinging the bat, which is a perfect summary of the Mets 2017 season.
Keith Law: Terry was right to prevent him from swinging the bat all those games last year.

Rick C: Is Ian Anderson hurt, or are the Braves just limiting his innings?
Keith Law: I believe he’s been shut down due to an innings cap. He’s not hurt.

Andy: For a while it looked as if Folty for the Braves had started to figure it out, but has recently fell apart. Do you think he will ever figure it out or is he better off in the bullpen?
Keith Law: Showed way too much as a starter before his last two outings to let those ruin his season. He was league-average on the season before the start at Coors.

avid reader of smrt baseball: what a useless stat Rich Hill being a losing pitcher?
Keith Law: I hate that that is the narrative. The Dodgers lost the game. Don’t fucking blame Hill like HE did something wrong.

Kyle: On a scale of 20-80 how excited are you for Pax Unplugged?
Keith Law: After I had such a blast at GenCon, that’s an 80, like Judge has 80 power or Buxton has 80 speed kind of 80.

Mark: T/F: Miguel Andujar posts at least two 3+ WAR seasons
Keith Law: Hm. If he gets the playing time, yes.

Hinkie: Is Brady Singer a better prospect than either AJ Puk or Alex Faedo were after their sophomore years at Florida ?
Keith Law: Nope. If healthy, Kowar is a better pro prospect than Singer.

Dan: Is Johan Oviedo the next big Cardinals pitching prospect? Has a ways to go but it seems like the upside is quite substantial.
Keith Law: Upside is huge. Also, over/under on times I refer to him as Juan Carlos: 2.5.

Bob: What is outlook of the 2014 Yankees spending spree look three years out?
Keith Law: International? Not great given the sheer quantity signed.

Patrick: Is Scott Kingery good enough to draw walks at the big league level. The hit tool is obviously legit, i just want to make sure he can lay off enough pitches to walk and not strikeout too much. Also, is he the best defensive second baseman in AAA
Keith Law: Swings early and often. Doesn’t miss much. I’ll at least roll with a guy like that, rather than a guy like Williams who swings a lot and misses a lot too.

Daniel: On a scale of 1 to ER MER GERD, how excited should I be for Fernando Tatis Jr?
Keith Law: He’s going to end up in my top 10 this winter.

JJ: Will Trevor Hoffmann eventually get into the HOF? He compiled impressive save stats, and some voters love compilers, but he gets crushed by having a career that so closely coincided with Mariano’s. “Closer” seems like it would be the hardest position to evaluate for a HOF voter.
Keith Law: He will get in this winter, but does not deserve to.

Todd: Which Brewer prospect at Carolina has been more disappointing: Ray, Clark, or Diaz? Which one has the most hope of turning it around?
Keith Law: Ray most disappointing to me. Diaz probably still the best chance to turn it around. But I’m also wondering if there’s a systemic issue there that four hitters (+ Erceg) all flopped there this year.

Chris: Luis Guillorme : 70/80 glove, .370 OBP in AA, zero pop, blocked in NY. Feel like he’s a sleeper.
Keith Law: Not a sleeper, just a quality backup. Don’t see the OBP sticking around with no pop and below-average hit tool. He is probably an 80 defender, though. Rey Ordonez?

Leonard: Pedro Gonzalez just got traded to the Rangers, what’s his ceiling ?
Keith Law: Ceiling is really high – maybe a 60 – but with low probability. Still a ways off, more raw ability than present game skills.

Evan: It’s a small sample size but Rafael Montero has looked decent in his most recent stint as a starter. Is there anything different that he’s doing that could lead to him being the pitcher the Mets thought they once had when he was a prospect?
Keith Law: Maybe just that he’s healthy again?

Pat D: Keith, we’ve had the opportunity to communicate a few times in the past, via Facebook, your blog, and your chats, but there’s one question that’s always been on my mind that I just have to ask: how do you type with boxing gloves on your hands? ?
Keith Law: DELETED

Brian : For what it’s worth, we ran a sympathetic piece explaining who antifa are: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/made-by-history/wp/2017/08/16/who-…
Keith Law: Thank you – I’ll add this to my reading list.

section 34: Hey Keith, you sometimes retweet racist and ignorant comments with snarky replies, which I enjoy. I’m curious about what percentage, roughly, of people commenting to you would you call racist, as opposed to ignorant about baseball (pro-RBI, etc). Also, is this percentage higher on Twitter or other media? Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t get that many racist/sexist/homophobic comments any more because I block people who say that shit. I don’t need you as a fan or reader if you can’t treat others as fundamentally equal.

Craig: I know and everyone who isn’t a Hot Take Talking Head knows that Tim Tebow is not a legitimate baseball prospect. But is what he is doing in the minors a legitimate athletic accomplishment? I doubt there are many 29 year olds — who haven’t played since high school — that could top the Mendoza line at High A. Is that wrong?
Keith Law: If you’re not looking at him in baseball terms, sure. But he’s a waste of a roster spot that should go to someone who isn’t just screwing around.

Ethan: Last year Josh Bell showed the extreme plate discipline and bat-on-ball abilities that he’s known for, but not as much power. This year, the tables have turned on the two–though not extremely. What are the chances he brings the two together?
Keith Law: High. 75%. I think it’s all in there – he has shown each of these skills in isolation.

Proops: Lance McCullers: is his future still in the bullpen?
Keith Law: If he can’t stay healthy, yes. He’s never reached 160 innings in any pro season and won’t come close again this year. He’s thrown 194 total since the start of 2016.

Luke: Will Pache develop 20 hrs power in the next 2 years ?
Keith Law: In the next 5 years, yes.

Gene Mullett: Any opinion of The Atlantic? Was surprised to see Rosenthal join. Gotta imagine someone has tried to recruit you by now.
Keith Law: No opinion as I haven’t read any of their content. I support the idea of outlets charging subscribers and then providing (or at least trying to provide) higher-quality content.

Andrew: Klaw – Love your stuff, a weekly lunch hour highlight! Can you summarize briefly the less-optimal aspects of Severino’s motion? Worth trying to fix or let it ride given the results this year?
Keith Law: Never used his lower half at all in his delivery; guys who do that don’t generally develop command and often get hurt. Wouldn’t change a thing with him now – he’s having success, ride it until something goes wrong.

Luke: Acuna or Eloy ?
Keith Law: Eloy has more of a chance to be a star, a 60 or a 70, Acuna more likely to have a longer career as a regular.

Bucs: If I’m not mistaken, you scouted Keller in person recently; what did you see?
Keith Law: I did and here’s the post for Insiders, also including notes on Cole Tucker, Hays, Mountcastle, and others.

Declan: Otani a 2 way guy, or not, and what is your guess on his salary?
Keith Law: Pitcher. Salary depends on when he’s posted because of the new CBA.

Evan: Is there anything to be worried about with Amed Rosario’s low walk rate and high strikeout rate in the MLB? Right now he has just one walk and 26 strikeouts in 22 games.
Keith Law: It’s. Twenty. Two. Games.

Evan: Dom Smith hasn’t hit much so far. Do you think it’s just because he’s adjusting to MLB pitching? Or is it something that fans should worry about?
Keith Law: It’s. Thirteen. Games.

Concerned: Why does everything have to be left or right, conservative or liberal, democrat or republican? Why does everything have to be partisan? What’s wrong with just being a good person, helping others, and throwing politics in the gutter where it belongs?
Keith Law: You won’t last long on the internet, my friend.

Concerned: To piggy back Trump tweeting question, do you feel he should be allowed to tweet? It strikes me as an extremely odd practice for President, everything else aside, obviously.
Keith Law: What would be the legal rationale for stopping him? It may be unwise for him, but I can’t see the argument against it.

Dr. Bob: You have rightly dismissed those promoting Yadier Molina’s HOF chances. Right now he stands at 28th on the list with 35.6 WAR. If he plays another 4 years and accumulates 9 more wins, he would be 14th on the list. Given that dWAR is tricky for catchers, would that be high enough to at least have a serious discussion about his candidacy?
Keith Law: I think that would leave him on the outside.

Jake: Have you seen any reports on Dylan Carlson? He is very young for his league, but it doesn’t seem like he has the hit tool or power to be an eventual regular. Did the Cardinals reach a little too far with that pick?
Keith Law: I thought it was a reach, but he’s still 18 and in the Midwest League (he turns 19 in October). It’s way too early to draw any conclusions; he could repeat Peoria next year and still be young for the level.

Dr. Bob: You should have the Disneyland Fastpass option so that we could choose to pay to get our questions at the front of the queue.
Keith Law: … 3. PROFIT

Eric: You’re Derek Falvey. Do you shut down Fernando Romero as he’s already surpassed his career high in IP?
Keith Law: Do we actually know what a safe innings jump is? The Verducci claim has been debunked. Now it’s just an assumption without evidence, no?

addoeh: What are the remaining Pulitzers on your list?
Keith Law: After Scarlet Sister Mary, which I’ll finish tomorrow, I will have five left: In This Our Life, The Store, Years of Grace, Guard of Honor, and Andersonville.

Andrew: At this point, who’s the favourite to go # 1 overall in the 2018 MLB Draft?
Keith Law: There is no clear favorite. The best player might be Rocker, mentioned above, but no HS RHP has ever gone 1-1 and there’s clearly a disinclination among teams to take a prep arm first.

HugoZ: Is it possible that Coppy is being so aggressive about promoting prospects because his contract expires in 2019 and he needs a playoff appearance by then?
Keith Law: Possible, because moral hazard exists, but I don’t believe this is true, based on conversations with him and others in the organization. I also don’t think rushing prospects gets you a playoff appearance.

Mike: Any feedback on Michael Matuella? The numbers don’t look great but he hasn’t broken this year
Keith Law: I enjoy the low expectations in there. “He’s not dead! Hooray!”

Monty: Agree or disagree: At the highest levels, most players have roughly the same ability. The ones who succeed push themselves to be in the best physical condition and tend to be the mentally most prepared to handle the ups and downs of the game?
Keith Law: Disagree.

James: Any idea if Ashe Russell will come back with the Royals?
Keith Law: He had the yips. Few if any come back from that.

Scott: Saw your earlier response re Darvish going to the DL and was wondering if you thought more teams do this than is noticed and if it was something you would consider as a GM?
Keith Law: If it’s allowed you’d be remiss if you didn’t utilize it.

Jake: Luke Weaver, can he keep posting a 3.18 FIP. Asking for a friend…
Keith Law: Bet the over.

Oklahomabrave: Touki has made 8 or so great starts with better control. Figured something out or too soon?
Keith Law: I’ve heard good things. Athletic with a good delivery; no physical reason he couldn’t find control.

addoeh: Does Ian Anderson need a Jethro Tull referenced nickname? Aqualung doesn’t seem too flattering. Maybe Locomotive Breath.
Keith Law: I worked that into one of my capsules on him. What if he posts an ERA of zero to the power of ten?

Will: Will the braves call up Louis Gohara in Sept.? Does he have a third pitch that can be average in the bigs?
Keith Law: He has to go on the 40-man so I think he’ll be up next month.

Franc: Keon Broxton never seemed to be on your radar (from what I could tell); he’s been up and down this year (literally), but what’s your thought on him?
Keith Law: Up and down guy is about what I’ve had on him. Athletic without enough of an approach to be more than that.

Bryce Harper: Mets broadcasters gave you a shout out for your tools articles but wondered why Lagares wasn’t mentioned for arm. Injuries/playing time? Same for Thor and the fastball category?
Keith Law: Lagares’ arm doesn’t make the cut. Thor was because he’s been out with injury – didn’t seem fair to consider him and just assume he’ll be exactly what he was when he returns (he’ll be fine in time, I’m sure). Very kind of the Mets’ announcers to mention me.

Scott: Do you have any interest in the “fight” Saturday?
Keith Law: Hell no. And has anyone asked the Killers why they took money to promote that domestic abuser?

Bobbo: Do you still play/enjoy/top-tenify base Dominion and Intrigue? the 83rd expansion, Nocturne, is slated to come out q4 this year – interested?
Keith Law: Don’t play much any more. Great game, but I got expansion fatigue.

Dan in DC: Thoughts on the Robert Lee story?
Keith Law: Read Will Leitch’s piece today on Sports on Earth. I thought he did a superb job.

Henry: You may not be able to comment, but ESPN blew the whole Robert Lee thing out of proportion. The game would have been seen by about 30,000 people on TV. All of the memes or internet jokes people made about him would have been forgotten by the time Alabama and Florida State kicked off their game later in the evening.
Keith Law: I wasn’t involved in any way, shape, or form in this, but I can say that if I were Lee in that situation, I would have been legitimately concerned about getting caught up in that storm. It’s not fun to be the center of attention for the wrong reasons.

George: Given you don’t have much experience playing baseball, how have you learned to scout and judge peoples mechanics?
Keith Law: I have no experience playing baseball. I’ve spent a lot of time with scouts and execs who were kind enough to teach me and/or answer my questions, and I’ve been seeing players for 12-13 years now too.

jay_B: You have made a lot of Homestar Runner references (including this chat) but I have never seen it. Is it worth going back to watch now, or is it one of those “certain time and place” type things?
Keith Law: It’s goofy but timeless. We introduced our daughter to it and she’s in on the gags too.
Keith Law: OK, that’s a long one but I’m going to end the chat here. Thanks so much for all your questions and for reading. It was great to meet many of you at GenCon as well. I’ll be back next Thursday for another chat.