Klawchat 5/27/16.

Starting a little after 11 am. Questions go in the frame below, not in the comments.

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Klaw: The in-crowd say it’s cool to dig this chatting thing. Klawchat.

Alex: Where do you expect Kyle Lewis to go? I still wonder if the Mercer part of things might make some of the teams at the top hesitant as the draft gets closer.
Klaw: I still think he goes 1 or 2, but I tend to agree with your point of view. We haven’t seen him face good pitching all spring and he still swings and misses a bit. But he also hit a monster homer at the Greenville Drive’s stadium over the batter’s eye the other day, so if you want to roll the dice on big power he’s your guy.

Brian: Any new buzz on Atlanta at 3?
Klaw: Nothing new on the top 3-4 teams. About the only really new thing is that it seems like Corey Ray is without a clear landing spot right now.

Philip: Does Matt Manning have huge bonus demands? Could he slip to Padres at 24-25 for way overslot?
Klaw: Bonus demands tend to be just rumors – they’re almost impossible to verify – but I have heard his asking price will be quite high. He has the two-sport commitment to LMU, but you know what I’m going to say about any HS pitcher who is already in the mid-90s: Take the money.

Dustin: Atlanta just essentially paid $3 million for a second-round pick. I think it’s a great move for the Braves, but I’ve seen detractors play the “draft picks are lottery tickets and the players Atlanta traded had good numbers” game. I myself don’t need convincing, but what is your quick rebuttal for those naysayers?
Klaw: People who’ve said that – and I got a few of those types on twitter – don’t understand the draft system. An additional pick means more money in your pool and more flexibility to sign better players. Since the draft is already the best investment any team can make, getting more of these things is a no-brainer. There’s no better place to put your money if you’re trying to build.

Dave M: Clearly you’re a fan of Wire. What other post-punk luminaries do you favor? The Fall, Joy Division, PIL?
Klaw: The Fall are a little out there for me. Joy Division of course, PIL here and there, Gang of Four.

Cephus: Assuming Puk has locked up 1-1. Do you get the sense that Braves would take Senzel over Lewis, if both are available? Also, if Lewis and Pint/Groome are on the board, do you believe Braves would opt for the bat or would they prefer the upside of the prep arms?
Klaw: Puk has not locked up 1-1. Nobody has. I still think Atlanta would take Groome over anyone, and I think Ray is strongly in their mix too.

Ed: Does it still sound like Perez is falling to 8? Are the Padres in on Perez, Wentz and Manning at that spot?
Klaw: Perez could go 5 too. I wouldn’t say “falling;” I have him ranked higher than that but that doesn’t mean I’m right. I haven’t heard them with Wentz at all.

Jon: Thank you for these chats Keith. Are you getting more of a sense of who will fall due to signability? Manning, Wentz, I.Anderson and B.Garrett seem to be names I’ve heard
Klaw: I’d add Kevin Gowdy. Manning has hoops, Wentz is a UVA commit, Anderson and Garrett are Vanderbilt. Lawson is also falling but that’s because his velocity was down, and I expect him to end up at ASU.

Michael: Wondering if you read Mike Wilbon’s drivel on African Americans and analytics. I’m almost certain that his thoughts are not true, but could this be a reason why there aren’t a lot of minorities in high-ranking sports positions?
Klaw: I started it and found the premise absurd.

Gabriel: when is your second mock draft coming?
Klaw: Saturday. Which is tomorrow. HOLY SHIT I HAVE A MOCK DRAFT DUE TONIGHT

John: Do you think Alec Hansen’s issues are mostly mental or is there an injury not being reported? He seems like someone who could be a great deal for a team taking a risk on him from 24 and later.
Klaw: I would bet it’s injury-related. He was shut down in the fall with forearm soreness and I believe he has a screw in his elbow from a prior injury.

@RationalMLBfan: Why would the Braves DFA Brian Matusz? It’s not like they have any bullpen prospects they want to use–wouldn’t it have been worth hanging on to a young, recently good LHP in hoes of trading him for *anything*?
Klaw: I agree. I thought they’d try to clean him up a little and see if they could create enough value to trade him in two months.

Ben: would there be any notable changes if you were to re-rank the farm systems
Klaw: Not really. Might slide the Rays up a little with the strong starts of some of the AA bats, especially Gillaspie, although Guerrieri’s velo has been down and so have his results.

Eric: You have the Mets picking Will Craig in your mock – how would you compare him to Dom Smith and if they pick him who would you consider the Mets “1B of the future”?
Klaw: Craig would be a bit of a reach for me at 19 – he’s got power, not sold on the hit tool against better pitching after a poor Cape, while Smith is a much better pure hitter and fielder and I think he’s actually younger than Craig.

Dave from Boston: Keith, Are the Redsox lowering Swihart’s value as a potential trade chip by playing him in left field? Shouldn’t he be honing his catching skills in Pawtucket for new?
Klaw: Yes, but perhaps they think he’ll have a future with the club if he’s a full-time left fielder. I think he has more value to them as a catcher either way.

Nationals Review: Why are teams so concerned with service time when calling up top prospects? It seems that most elite young players get extended well before they would hit free agency, so that extra year of club control never served as more than leverage. However, if a team needs the wins now, it seems like they wouldn’t lose much by calling up the player. Do I have this completely wrong?
Klaw: I agree with you and think the emphasis on delaying callups, especially for arbitration, is silly. If you’re contending, the difference between a division title and a wild-card spot, or between making and missing the playoffs, could easily be one game. Having the right guy up in the order, the right arm in the rotation, in a specific game may end up the margin of success. When the difference is slight, it’s not a big deal, but Trea Turner is so much better than Danny Espinosa’s balsa-wood bat that the Nats’ decision to skimp on Turner makes no sense to me. And even for pushing off free agency, in many cases, you’re relying on the assumption that everything goes well with the player – look at Carlos Gomez right now. Sometimes the player’s best years are now, not years six and seven and beyond.

Andrew: Klaw, after Puk who do you view as the top SEC prospect?
Klaw: Dakota Hudson. I have an entire ranking of the top 100 prospects in the draft.

DPF: Is there something that you’ve seen or not seen in Austin Meadows to make him drop on your prospect list? Or is it just a case of guys jumping him?
Klaw: He needs to start making better quality contact.

Nick: How much do you think bonus demands are going to factor into who goes at #1 and #2 overall? Given that there aren’t any consensus players at #1 and #2, do you expect that the Phillies and Reds are going to look to go more underslot than you’d typically see with the #1 and #2 overall picks in a generic draft?
Klaw: I’m almost positive that the Phillies are going to make offers to multiple players at 1 and take the player who will accept the best deal – the numbers may be different for each player, but regardless of who they sign they’d be in position to grab a top talent (Manning?) who falls to their pick at 42.

Rick: Any reports on Alex Jackson? 7:6 BB:K so far with 2 homers
Klaw: Interesting that you omitted the part where he’s 3 for 23. Don’t think any of it means much. I didn’t get good reports on him from extended.

Jobu: What can we expect out of Senzel?
Klaw: I think your floor is an average player. Average or fringe-average defense at third, plus hit tool, maybe 8-10 homers a year. He shows huge raw in BP, doesn’t bring it over to games. If that translates, then you’re looking at a potential star.

Justin: So…is Joey Gallo going to get any playing time or is he just there to help the clubhouse?
Klaw: Their fealty to Fielder befuddles me. Just release him. He’s toast.

Rick: Michael Gettys is starting off strong according to the stat line. .822 OPS and 20 steals. Good reports?
Klaw: No. Also, he’s repeating the level and still strikes out a lot.

Jonathan: Can Atlanta’s front office keep Swanson and Albies in minors all season (and bring them up April 14, 2017 to extend club control through 2023) or will Braves give in to mounting media noise calling for PR feel good move that brings those two up to MLB team this season?
Klaw: It’s not like the team has given in to any other media noise about PR feel good moves.

Greg: Have you heard anything or do you have any opinion on what Atlanta will do with the money from that extra pick? Pour it into 40 and 44, take a senior at 76?
Klaw: I think whatever fits. It will depend on which kids who want big bonuses slide to 40 and 44 – and that’s tougher to determine now than it was under the old system. But I happen to think they’ll get someone well over slot at 40.

Mike: What did you think of the dust up between LaRussa and Brown (Pirates PBP guy)? Seemed immature on both fronts to me…
Klaw: No issues with Brown. LaRussa was totally out of line to barge in on a broadcast like that.

Jason VT: Will Funkhauser go in the first three rounds?
Klaw: My guess is he’ll either go to the Nats or to whatever team takes Senzel.

John: You once mentioned that Hector Olivera does not look like a regular. Do you think he will play for the braves again or ever in the big league?
Klaw: Probably, but I don’t think he’ll ever be good.

Nick: Are you still hearing the Mets are looking at college bats with their 1st pick?
Klaw: Yes. Second pick, no.

Aaron: Thoughts on the new Radiohead or still waiting for it to hit Spotify?
Klaw: Other than “Burn the Witch” it was dull.

Jennifer: How much upside is there in Benson, Lowe, N.Jones, Mendoza and other bats that are projected around the back of the first round? Do you have any favorites?
Klaw: Jones, who I think will go higher than that unless he puts out a huge number, is my favorite by far. I’m not sure Benson or Mendoza are good bets to hit, period. Lowe could go anywhere from as high as 5 to the early 20s. Some guys are all in on the bat, others are not, two even used the word “fraud” to describe him as a prospect (I won’t go that far).

Brian: Odubal Herrera has dramatically increased his patience at the plate. Why don’t more guys place an emphasis on that and/or is it just too difficult to do for most guys?
Klaw: You notice how rare it is – that’s because it’s really hard.

John: Braves have had Teheran, Wisler, Folty, and Blair in the rotation at times this year. Of those 4 + the 4-5 guys at AAA and AA (Jenkins, Sims, Newcomb, Ellis, etc) who do you think is actually a starter long term for them?
Klaw: Blair no doubt. Folty and Wisler probably the next two most likely. Newcomb has starter stuff but not command or control. Jenkins has starter stuff but for some reason doesn’t miss bats. Ellis is a fifth starter or long guy. Sims is a reliever.

Jonas: I’m currently in the planning process for a kitchen remodel. I recall that mentioning one you did in a previous chat. Any advice you can share from that experience?
Klaw: Set aside more money than you think you’ll need, and then do it down to the studs. You never know what nonsense is lurking in your walls. For us it was flying splices, narrow pipes, and some subfloor issues.

Jason Reynolds: Keep fighting the good fight on amateur pitch counts. No one else is
Klaw: It’s really bizarre. And I have yet to have any coach I’ve called out say, “yep, he’s right, I pitched that kid too much.” Even the pitchers themselves are saying they feel fine and I don’t know how tough they are; one said he just had to “sack up” for the long outing, as if, say, Jarrod Parker just needed some more sack.

Jason Reynolds: How quick could Connor Jones see the bigs? Next year possible?
Klaw: I’m skeptical. UVA pitchers haven’t fared well in their transitions to pro ball and I don’t see an out pitch from him that would make him successful even in AA.

Justin: Does the fact that Clint Frazier has been able to significantly (would you call it that?) cut his K% at the Double-A level lead you to believe he’ll be able to compete near his ceiling projections? Indians probably wont do it – but COULD he help them this year? Thanks for all your work. Never miss a post/chat.
Klaw: He’s a real breakout guy right now – as in, I think it’s a real breakout. More likely to help this year than Zimmer, but I’d also like to see Frazier head up to AAA for a few months of facing pitchers who’ve been in the big leagues before.

BD: Does Shawryn having 16ks move the needle for scouts, or is it just another game, averaged into the whole season? I bet there is some recency bias no?
Klaw: Just another game. Delivery still is what it is, either a reliever or a patient.

Cale: Bogaerts is beginning to show signs of power to go along with what looks like a plus hit tool. You always seemed to project power but did you expect him to be such a high average guy? Plus his defense looks like he can stay at short for a long time. What do you think his peak looks like? Looks like a MVP caliber player.
Klaw: I had him as the #2 prospect in baseball one year, so yes, I thought he’d be a star all around, a shortstop who got on base and hit for power. Superstar makeup too. 25 HR peak plus all the stuff he’s already doing.

Nick: Follow-up: Do you expect the Reds to adopt a similar approach (i.e. taking the best deal) at #2 in order to be able to go over slot at #35?
Klaw: Yes, but I think they’re focused on fewer players (3?) than the Phillies (5).

Ian: Does Senzel qualify as a “high upside” guy that the Braves say they are after? Huge Braves fan, and wouldn’t be overly excited about that pick.
Klaw: No and I don’t think they’re likely to take him.

Dan: Any idea what’s going on with Harvey? His mechanics look terrible, he looks exhausted early in games and I don’t know how the Mets can just just keep throwing him out there. Would a minor league assignment help get him back on track?
Klaw: I answered this, sort of, on Twitter: I know his velocity’s down by a significant margin (not just random), and his mechanics look “off,” but I can’t give you more than that. I would need to see him live to even start to talk about the delivery in specific terms, and if he’s actually hurt, we probably won’t know until he hits the DL. It’s real, though, not just a random blip. He’s not ‘right.’ But to say more than that would be to pretend to knowledge I don’t have.

Canada: What are you all gonna do about Trump?
Klaw: Close your borders, stat.

Alan: You called Austin Riley a mediocre bat speed guy, and the numbers so far certainly look like that’s the case. I’m curious if there’s anything he can do? How often do guys get past that to reach their potential, and is there anything they can do other than simply get stronger?
Klaw: Stronger won’t speed up your bat. I don’t know of any way to improve bat speed in a player who’s already over 18.

Matt: Profar coming to the bigs this weekend. Still a star for you long term if he stays healthy?
Klaw: Yes, I’m still all in.

Finn: Do you like the Dodgers saying that Urias will be going back down at some point? Seems odd if he pitches well not to keep him at the big league level even with the innings limit
Klaw: I think they need to manage expectations as well as his innings. If he pitches really well, they can always reverse course.

Alex Remington: Could Blake Rutherford possibly fall to 40 due to outrageous bonus demands?
Klaw: I had a scout broach that possibility to me yesterday. It’s an interesting one, because he was seen coming into the year as a potential top 5 guy and is almost certainly not going up there. I could also see the Phils cutting a deal with him at 1, then trying to pay someone $5 million at 42. There are a lot of possibilities right now with the lack of clarity up top and all these high school kids with upside but no price tags yet.

Elton: How old was your daughter when she was able to play interesting board games and what was the first one you played with at least a bit of strategery?
Klaw: She was four when she started playing Carcassonne via the app. By the time she was 7-8 she could really play games like that or Splendor or Ticket to Ride with us.

J: Do you see Zack Burdi as a guy who could be a Brandon Finnegan (as in get to majors in draft year?). Where would you take him?
Klaw: I do. He has the stuff to do that, perhaps not the command. Would consider him in the 30s/40s, think he’ll go higher.

Ray A.: Will you be at the Futures Game in San Diego this year? Any prospects I can look forward to watching? I’m guessing Moncada will be there.
Klaw: Yes, I will, and will try to set aside some time pregame to meet with fans as usual. I thought Urias might start the game, but that’s not happening.

Gregory: Lucas Sims as a reliever? That’s harsh. He’s dominating right now.
Klaw: Lucas Sims is dominating right now? He has a 5 ERA and 21 BB in 34 IP.

Belvin2: You mentioned Giolito had his delivery altered. Any insight as to why and what was wrong with his old one?
Klaw: Nothing was wrong with it. I can only assume this was some pitching coach wanting to put his stamp on the kid. If I were Mike Rizzo I would have fire coming out of my eyes at this point.

addoeh: If Baylor isn’t lack of institutional control, I don’t know what is. Still, NCAA is more worried about the players getting paid then what a few of the players do off the field.
Klaw: Meanwhile, UCLA signed a quarter billion dollar deal with Under Armour but can’t find a few bucks to pay the players.

Tom: Do you believe new CBA agreement should set a strict rule to prevent tanking?
Klaw: No. But maybe they could craft rules that don’t actively encourage it?

Matt: cody reed jumped from the 50s to 24 in your recent prospect update. Change in his upside to you or just more confident he’ll be an above average SP soon?
Klaw: Higher upside, showing even better command, Reds people are ecstatic over his progress.

Jay_B: What skill/tool in MLB is most unique (sorry to use a modifier on “unique”)? The one thing where you are like “wow, no one else can do that”
Klaw: Never seen any player run like Billy Hamilton or murder a baseball like Joey Gallo – no, not even Stanton – or throw a 95 mph slider like Thor.

Dan: Thought on Tyler O’Neill so far this season. I believe preseason you said you saw signs of life.
Klaw: Yep, I’m in, especially since now he’s doing it outside the Cal League.

Matt: Kyle Zimmer -> we’ve gotta be talking about a reliever soon right? seems pretty clear his shoulder isnt gonna hold up to a starter’s workload.
Klaw: If that. Hard to peg him as a reliever unless he can throw on back-to-back days. He might be one of the biggest disappointments I’ve ever seen – guy had three legit plus pitches and may never make a major league start.

Jeb: Do you find the draft more enjoyable to cover now that teams have to be more creative with deals and who they pick where or was it more fun when there were fewer restrictions….or has it really not changed that much?
Klaw: The draft is fun to cover when the players are good. The system itself doesn’t affect my job other than doing mocks.

John: Is there anything you particularly like about Trump’s inclusion in politics? I have heard a lot of people say they hate Trump and what he stands for, but they enjoy seeing an “outsider” enter the fray and just disrupt everything. I liked it, too……at first. Not so crazy that the maniac actually has a shot at winning.
Klaw: I was thinking about this the other day after seeing 538’s piece on Gary Johnson’s shot at polling north of 5%. Do people underrate how much we have benefited from having one of the world’s most stable democracies, which in itself is a function of having two dominant (if sometimes wholly dissatisfying) parties? Regardless of who’s been in charge, there’s never been a real threat to the republic, so to speak.

Curt: Perez going 5 to Milwaukee a sure bet?
Klaw: There are no sure bets in this draft. Really.

Cody: What changed with Martes? He does not look good right now
Klaw: Martes, Lopez … I don’t know if these guys are hurt or what. That’s always my first assumption when a good pitcher either stops throwing strikes or loses velocity.

Ed: Are the Padres in a better position than say the Reds or Phils for an underslot deal at 8 then overslot for a manning or anderson at 24,25?
Klaw: Yes, easier to manipulate it when your second pick comes before anyone else’s second pick.

Ray: Alex Verdugo is hitting for more power on AA. Is he a future 20 home run bat? Estimated ETA?
Klaw: He’s got power for sure. Did as an amateur too. Might make it to the majors next year.

Jay: Worried about my Rays. They seem to be taking a step backwards under Silverman. Can you talk me off the ledge?
Klaw: You’d have to give me something more specific than that. I don’t see what’s gone backwards. Thought their draft last year was their most promising in a while.

Brendan: Why Nats on K Funkhauser?
Klaw: Who’s his adviser again?

Brian: Keith, why don’t teams front load long term contracts when they realize the value is in the front and they’ll regret the end? It would make it much easier not to play, cut or trade the struggling player and not handicap the club. Is it basically just because the Union wouldn’t allow it or do the clubs want to delay the spending? Thanks
Klaw: Union discourages it, and yes, clubs love to borrow from tomorrow (and maybe the next GM) to pay for today.

John: Do you see any sense in a Freeman for Gallo + deal? I feel like Freddie should be traded and Texas could use the 1B production
Klaw: At that point Texas should just play Gallo at first base.

Ryan: Can Carter Keiboom stick at shortstop? Is it a 20-homer bat potential?
Klaw: Not a shortstop. Maybe 15-18 homers.

Andy: There’s also a huge difference between keeping Bryant in the minors for two to three weeks to delay free agency a year and avoiding paying money for a Super 2. In one case you hold the player’s rights for an extra year, in the other you just have to spend more money.
Klaw: I agree and I hope I made that distinction clear. That said, are we really good enough to know what a player might be worth in six years – especially a pitcher?

Loser in Minneapolis: I’m a Twins fan and need something to smile about. Any superstar talents in the 2017 draft?
Klaw: Yes. Might be a 2011 draft class. Wright, Faedo, Houck, Kendall, Greene, Schmidt … and that’s just what I’m thinking of now, while sleep-deprived, at 35,000 feet.

Matt: Was jose Berrios eligible for the updated top 25? Does his struggles this year change his long-term outlook for you?
Klaw: He was eligible and did not make the cut. Tiny sample in the majors, but you can see why I had voiced concerns about his height and flat fastball in the past.

Dan: Does Josh Hader make a debut in Beer Town before Sept or do Stearns/Counsell wait for Sept call ups. Dominating in the Southern League.
Klaw: I think he debuts this year. He actually is dominating, unlike Sims, but I don’t think that’s perfectly predictive of what he’ll be in the majors either.

Matt: Thanks for all the answers today. Not sure i’ve see you comment on this: what do you think of the Fantex contracts guys like Franco and Duffey have signed? seems like a good way for players to cash in on part of their value before arb without getting locked into a bad deal. Good for players. mlb?
Klaw: Good for players for sure. Not sure what MLB’s view on it will be – I don’t really see how it’s bad for them.

Doug: Will there be a player coming out of nowhere (like Benintendi last year) going in the top 10/
Klaw: Benintendi won the Golden Spikes Award as a centerfielder in the SEC, so I don’t think he was really out of nowhere. Justin Dunn is the most out of nowhere guy who’ll go high in the draft, maybe up to #11.

Mike: Some say catchers can take more time to develop at the plate, and I know he is still young, but should there be concern over Reese McGuire’s lack of pop?
Klaw: This is what he is and has always been. He can catch and throw but doesn’t have any power.

Gregory: Okay, Sims had a bad three-start run adjusting to AAA but the stuff is there. Right?
Klaw: No, not right.

Rick: Is Dylan Cozens power spike just a result a playing in hitter friendly Reading?
Klaw: He has huge raw power. I think the performance overall is affected by playing in Reading.

Chris: With all the (correct) bashing of the coaches/programs that ruin young pitchers arms, which one’s do you think are more likely to think of the player first and winning the game second?
Klaw: Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU all take pretty good care of their arms. And I’ve run into some less-known programs where the coaches get it – Radford, for example, even though they don’t have a lot of pro prospects. Unfortunately they are still in the minority.

Klaw: That’s all for this week as I’ll be landing soon. Thanks for all of the questions. Look for my next mock draft tomorrow morning.