Klawchat 3/10/16.

Klaw: You gave up being good when you declared a state of war. It’s Klawchat.

Paul: How many people who were upset that EA got $55M in her suit are just fine with Hulk Hogan’s $100M suit against Gawker?
Klaw: Probably a lot, but as I tweeted the other day, the $ figure isn’t the point in EA’s suit – or I guess in Bollea’s suit either. In Andrews’ case, it’s a clear message to hoteliers that this shit will not fly. She could have been raped or killed by the same stalker without any additional help from those same idiot hotel employees that put him in an adjacent room. In the Gawker case, though, I think the message at stake is freedom of the press, so even though I’m not entirely sure that what Gawker did is specifically necessary for or covered by the first amendment, I’d much rather see them win and preserve those rights than see Bollea win and potentially reduce them.

Tom: What has to happen for this D-backs offseason to be considered a success?
Klaw: I think they’d say a playoff appearance. But if they win 85 games and miss the playoffs, didn’t they get more or less what they paid for?

Alex in Austin: What happened to Erin Andrews was wrong. But I’m not sure how this is the fault of the hotel. Isn’t liability solely on the one or two employees who made bad decisions?
Klaw: Who trained those employees – or failed to train them?

Josh: Have you seen a team turn a player from first rounder to non-prospect faster than the Orioles did with DJ Stewart?
Klaw: I don’t want to give up on him entirely, but I had some doubts about him going into the draft, rating him as more of a second rounder because of the body and lack of defensive value. It doesn’t look good right now, though.

Bryce the Destroyer: What do you think of Bryce Harper’s comments about baseball being “tired?”
Klaw: If you read his entire comments, then I’m in complete agreement. I love players with energy and personality. McCutchen’s another one – I wish we had a hundred more guys like him and Harper and Fernandez.

Brian: What’s your opinion on whether or not the Tigers can win the Central? Is there any validity to the lineup being too right handed and is the rotation banking on too many what ifs? I love my team but I can only really see a maybe shot a wild card…
Klaw: I don’t think the “too right-handed” thing is a big issue – it’s easier to be too left-handed because of what it means late in games when opponents can hit you with LH relievers – but the lack of rotation depth looks like a potential problem. They have two, maybe three starters who seem really unlikely to get through a full season unscathed and other than Fulmer they don’t have adequate replacements available.

Carlos: Does Jacob Nottingham have enough bat to be a big leaguer even if he moves off catcher? If so, what kind of player might he look like? Thank you!
Klaw: I think so, but I also don’t think it’s at all a given he moves off catcher. I don’t think he’ll ever be more than barely average on defense at catcher, but with his bat that’d be enough. The power should play anywhere and he has more than enough feel to hit to get to it.

Pete: Hey Keith, does Addison Russell’s strike out percentage last year worry you or do you think he was called up before his bat was ready? Thanks!
Klaw: I thought he’d spend all of last year in the minors, so, no, I’m not worried about it.

K. C.: Does Sam Travis hit his way to a regular gig in Fenway?
Klaw: Somewhere, yes, not sure if it’ll be Fenway given the presence of Hanley and Pablo and their unmoveable contracts.

Ricky: Why aren’t more MLB players coming out against Trump?
Klaw: Given their tax brackets, most MLB players probably vote Republican, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if many supported Trump.

Michael D: No real question — just a huge thank you. Spent the last 5 days in Phoenix. Tacked on a weekend of ballgames before a few days of work. Relied on your AZ spring training eats guide and it didn’t let me down. Hit Culinary Dropout (twice), Cartel Coffee (thrice!), Hillside Spot, Four Peaks Brewery, Ground Control, and Pizzeria Bianco. Everything was awesome and I couldn’t have come up with anything like that on my own. Thanks for the tips!
Klaw: You’re welcome. I’m chatting from a Cartel right now, and they’re playing the entire Grimes album Art Angels, so I’m feeling pretty good.

kd: Do you think Cano has a bounce back year (after the hernia) or was 2015 as good as it gets for him?
Klaw: I’ll bet on the bounceback.

Joe S: I was reading the sad story of the Rangers’ prospect Cody Buckel, who can no longer find the strike zone and am wondering: Can you recall a pitcher who got “the yips” and was able to fix the problem and go on to a good career?
Klaw: Not really. Mark Wohlers had it and sort of came back but was never as good after as he was before. The problem is that no one really knows what causes the yips so no one can agree on a potential remedy.

Casey: I consider myself a feminist and have marched in support of Take Back The Night. That said, why do you vilify Kane when you don’t know any of the facts other than that there was an accusation by someone who isn’t cooperating? Maybe he is a piece of shit, maybe it was a money grab, maybe the girl isn’t even sure. This isn’t Chapman or Ben Roethlisberger. Short of the Duke case, what does a potential defendant have to do in your eyes once they are accused to not be vilified?
Klaw: I haven’t vilified Kane, although he probably deserves it, given unpublished details I’ve heard. I’ve vilified SI for making the guy the subject of a feature and cover story that whitewashes the allegations and even paints them as a positive for him. That’s a failure of ethics.

Kyle: Who do you think makes more of an impact this season Berrios or Giolito?
Klaw: Berrios will probably get twice the opportunity, so I’d say him.

Bob Pollard: What do you make of David Dahl at this point? Star/just a guy?
Klaw: Star potential, approach is more JAG right now. Tools will play somehow, but he won’t get close to his upside unless he gets more selective at the plate.

Corbin: Sean Newcomb’s first 2 outings have exposed his walk issues. I know it’s his first ST but is there any concern?
Klaw: Same concern there was last year: There isn’t a clear reason why he doesn’t throw more strikes or how to improve his control because his arm action is so easy. You can’t just say you’ll clean up his delivery or get him to work on repeating it, because it deosn’t get any cleaner.

Luke: How do your split your time between watching MLB and scouting college and/or players in the minors?
Klaw: I spend much more time watching prospects. MLB is fun but I’m not learning anything watching Harper or Trout hit.

Chris: Do you see Dodgers sending Joc Pederson down if he continues to struggle? What about Trace Thompson in CF?
Klaw: Yes, I’ve written a few times I think Thompson’s going to get a shot if Pederson doesn’t come out of the gate strongly – I think they acquired Thompson with the idea that Pederson might need to return to AAA.

Michael: I believe you have said you are against taking probiotics. My girlfriend raves about them and constantly encourages me to start taking them. However, they are expensive and I worry that it’s all in her head. Could you elaborate on your feelings?
Klaw: There’s no scientific evidence that they work or even stay in your system. If you want to improve the health of your gut, you need to eat better so that the population of flora can increase. And while I don’t take probiotics I do like fermented foods, such as yogurt (which I eat almost every day) or kimchi, and they’re definitely good for you.

Eric: Am i crazy for thinking Thor might be a legitimate Cy candidate this yr?
Klaw: I don’t think that’s crazy even if it’s a bit of a longshot. It’s not like he’s lacking anything you’d want to see in a CYA candidate.

Jesse: Mets had their wave of high end pitching prospects end last year. With Rosario, Smith ect. coming within the next 4 or 5 years do you forsee heavy pitching drafts the next 2/3 years for them. to creat a smiliar pitching prospect wave when those young hitters get to their primes?
Klaw: No, I think they’ll continue to draft best player available. Limiting yourself to just one thing – pitchers only, college players only, whatever – is a good way to have some really shitty drafts.

Danny: Have you heard of any interesting “developments” with minor league camps opening, i.e. X looks like he added velocity, or came back from the winter with a better curve?
Klaw: No, and to be honest, even if I had I’d probably say we need to see it in some games first anyway. Otherwise it’s just more “best shape of his life” nonsense.

Scott: Reports seem to be that Naquin’s glove is plenty good for him to be the Indians opening day CF. How ready is the bat?
Klaw: Probably not quite ready but close enough that I’d let him learn on the job. They’re much better off on defense with him.

Colin: What are your thoughts on the Kolten Wong extension?
Klaw: Seemed like a no-brainer for the Cards. I think he’s going to end up an average regular and if that happens it’s a screaming bargain for the club.

Jered Weaver’s Fastball: Sorry … this is taking a little longer than I thought … almost there
Klaw: Take your time. We’ve got another half hour at least.

james: Who would be your choice to play short for the Cardinals? How would project diaz bat? Do you think he can hit for avg?
Klaw: Not a huge Diaz fan – saw him in AFL, thought he was a utility guy. Don’t think there’s an average bat there, and when I saw him on defense I didn’t think he’d be an above-average defender (although bear in mind a lot of players are gassed by then and don’t look as good on defense as they might in June).

Ryan: What are the big differences between Jose Peraza and Albies? Thanks!
Klaw: Albies is definitely a shortstop; Peraza hasn’t played it in two-plus years. Albies is much stronger and will end up with more extra-base power. I think Albies’ approach is better. Peraza’s a better runner.

Thor: How do you compare the arms of Urias and De Leon? The new prospect fellow over at FanGraphs says De Leon actually has the higher ceiling with Urias having the higher floor. That was the first I’ve heard of that. Urias’ ceiling is an ace, so how good could De Leon be?
Klaw: That’s backwards – if you look at my top 100, you’ll see more on these players, but DeLeon is a low-ceiling, high-probability starter, a command/deception guy with a plus change but lacking an average breaking ball. Urias has three above-average to plus pitches, still growing, lacking DeLeon’s command right now. If they need a starter today, I’d take DeLeon, although I’d rather see both guys get more time in the minors, DeLeon to work on the breaking ball and on keeping the fastball down in the zone, Urias to work on consistency of delivery and command.

Michael-Chicago: Who do you like better Raisel Igleasis or Joe Ross?
Klaw: Ross. Big Joey Rozay fan.

Mike: Do you see Jonathan Schoop having a breakout season? I’m not sure about the walks, but I think his power really blossoms this year.
Klaw: I wish he walked more, although they did rush him to the majors. I’ve always loved the swing and power potential, and I think his defense would be excellent at second or third (occupied). I don’t know if he’ll be on my breakout column but he’s a strong consideration.

Randy: Is Bernie missing an opportunity by neglecting to mention Clinton’s arms sales as Secretary of State during recent debates?
Klaw: Do you think voters would care? I kind of don’t. It just doesn’t seem like an issue that will score any points. Secret email servers, though – that’s where it’s at.

Danny: Forgetting about his stats, do you think Judge’s changes to his approach (leg kick) has/will remedy his deficiencies in AAA?
Klaw: Dunno, seems a bit wishful thinking – I never thought it was mechanical, but more about decision-making, and recognizing locations a little earlier. He has to attack pitches inside and outside rather differently because his arms are so long. I do believe he can do it, but I’m not sure how a leg kick would change that.

Lindsay: Could you explain how you would identify a fundamental right? Are you in favor of some sort of an oligarchy to determine those things? I am pro same-sex marriage, but how do you determine that is a fundamental right and not the right to guns, the right to suicide, the right to vote, etc.?
Klaw: An oligarchy? You must be confusing me with Vladimir Putin. (I get that a lot.) We have many fundamental rights clearly delineated in the Constitution, and while I don’t necessarily agree with all of them – why do we all need the right to own a gun? – they’re there, and the process to change that document requires substantial majorities, not the decision of a chosen few. I’m good with that process.

Doc: You mentioned in a radio interview a few weeks ago that a top HS draft prospect who has had problems with marijuana. How is that likely to affect his standing on draft boards?
Klaw: If it doesn’t affect his performance on the field or behavior off of it (e.g., missing practices or something) this spring, then I’d say not at all. I personally do not care if a player smokes weed as long as he shows up for work and does what’s asked of him.

Jack: Is the best player in this draft, better than the best player in last years draft?
Klaw: Right now, I don’t think so.

Dave: If Amed Rosario actually plays “well” offensively this season as opposed to just “good for his age” how high do you think he can rise in the prospect rankings?
Klaw: I ranked him somewhere in the middle of those two scenarios because I anticipate a boost in his performance this year. He’s a potential top 20-25 guy if he blows up in AA this year. It’s explosive bat speed.

Jamie: Good for Fredi G to bench Mallex for trying another bunt? Is Mallex getting overrated because of his hot start?
Klaw: Yes, he’s getting way overrated. But there’s some value in his speed and contact.

Doc: How do you think the Phils should fill in for Altherr while he is out? Give Goeddel the AB’s?
Klaw: As good a solution as any. I don’t understand why people are acting like Altherr is a big loss. He was probably a below-average regular anyway.

Alex: If possible, can you briefly describe how we know WAR is a reliable stat? How do we trust the the formula really means Player A is worth 2 more wins than Player B?
Klaw: I think it’s directionally correct, but I don’t know if it has the precision that’s often imputed to it. If you want to answer that question, you should examine the components: the batting runs, the fielding, the baserunning, and satisfy yourself that those are at least directionally correct. I think the biggest problem with WAR is the R (replacement level, not Rakim Allah), which may not be the right baseline, and is not calculated the same way by everyone.

Pat: Have you played Dead of Winter?
Klaw: no, I have to live through that shit every year, why would i play it

Pat: If you were to write a book what would it be about?
Klaw: I am writing a book. It’s about baseball. More details to follow.

JWR: Youngest child is about to decide on a college. Would you rather have your child take on debt to go to an elite private school or would you prefer a flagship state college that might be less prestigious but much more affordable?
Klaw: I don’t think the ROI is typically there for the private schools. It does depend a bit on the student’s major and career plans – but those can change anyway. I think I got the ROI from my alma mater, but that’s because Harvard has an enormous alumni network and a good global brand. Lots of very good private schools don’t have those two things, so you’re getting a great education (as good as what I got) but not those fringe benefits. I certainly won’t push my daughter to go to a private school just because of prestige.

Wil: Anthony Alford, Derek Fischer, and Victor Robles all seem like similar prospects; who do you think actually achieve the most upside, despite the hype?
Klaw: Fisher’s not like the other two, who are both more electric and are better at translating their tools into performance. Alford’s still got untapped power; Robles could grow into power, but hasn’t developed it yet. Also, those guys can play center, while Fisher is still not that good in a corner despite 70 speed.

Isaac: Who are your top arms in the upcoming mlb draft?
Klaw: Not in any order. College: Hansen, Puk, Connor Jones, Jeffries, Tyler, Dunning, Sheffield. I’m forgetting 1-2 guys there. HS: Groome, Whitley, Pint, Velez, Anderson, Lawson, Manning, maybe Speas.

Scott: Tyler White going to get a legit shot at 1B in Hou? If no does he have any path to at bats short of a trade?
Klaw: Guy just hits everywhere he’s played. They’d be fools not to give him a shot, and they are not fools in Houston.

Scott: Is Andrew Lambo a candidate for successful reclamation project, or should I not get my hopes up?
Klaw: I’m not buying that one at all. He was never that good a prospect even when he was a prospect.

Robert: Do you like Michael Fulmer?
Klaw: Well I’ve never met the kid, but he seems like a pretty good pitcher.

Scott: I realize he was JUST drafted, but what are your early thoughts on Bickford’s potential? If I remember, you were a little underwhelmed by him? Didn’t mean to put words in your mouth if that wasn’t your opinion!
Klaw: Majority of scouts I talked to said “reliever,” and that’s even before you get into the medical questions – he has some kind of shoulder issue, and had a back problem before the draft. Big fastball, very inconsistent slider that would be plus one week and barely average the next, low slot, no real changeup. Healthy for two years since he didn’t sign with Toronto, though, and holds his stuff deep into games. I could see the argument that he’s got #2 starter upside, but I see more red flags too.

RSF: I saw a prospect analyst mention that Nick Plummer’s high-ish strikeout rate last year was partially due to the fact that he had a better since of the zone than most of the umps in the Gulf Coast League (i.e. he kept striking out looking at balls). Have you heard of anything like that before? And is that actually the case with Plummer?
Klaw: I’ve heard that before and it’s mostly BS. Plenty of prospects have good plate discipline. They don’t all struggle like he did. That doesn’t mean he’s a bust or anything, but I think the jump from a Michigan HS prep conference to the GCL was a huge one.

Jason: I personally believe that the discrepancies between the various WAR formula are a negative to most followers because the numbers can sometimes differ a substantial amount. Which WAR formula do you trust more?
Klaw: I look at both. If they disagree substantially, I’ll spend time on the components to understand why. If they’re close, I feel pretty confident using those values or their average as a good estimate of the player’s value. Again, I wouldn’t tell anyone to treat them as precise to the tenths digit.

Lindsay: But a right to SSM is clearly not in the Constitution. So leave it to the states. It’s as if you love the result so much that you ignore the process. You can be pro-SSM and take Scalia’s side in that case.
Klaw: Actually, the right to same sex marriage is in the 14th amendment, and you can’t leave it to the states because marriage is a part of so many federal laws, including the tax code and social security. Scalia’s argument was a copout to try to support his bigoted views.

Casey: What did you want SI to say? When has enough time passed that it doesn’t have to be mentioned?
Klaw: I wanted them to pick a player who wasn’t just accused of rape a few months ago.

Steve: Coppy had an interesting answer in a recent twitter Q&A about seeking a college bat with their 1st round pick. How is the crop of college bats this class?
Klaw: Terrible. I know that’s what they want, but if Corey Ray is gone – and in a lot of drafts he wouldn’t be a clear top 3 pick – then I don’t see a college bat worth that spot.

Drew: I saw dansby play twice at Buena vista last week. Am I crazy to compare him to jeter ? His hit tool was amazingly impressive. Not much to dislike about his game
Klaw: I’ve heard him compared to Jeter before. Don’t think Jeter swung and missed that much, but Swanson’s a better glove. I think dansby just has that look, though … if you’re not scouting, just watching, he has that star quality, so your eyes are always on him.

Matt: To chime in on JWR’s question, as someone who turned down a full scholarship from a state school to attend an expensive (non-Harvard) private university, I would agree that the ROI was not really there. I got a great education, sure, but I ultimately had to go into a lot of debt when I decided to go to grad school, and I’m not sure that the school I attended gave me much of a leg up in the job market or in getting into grad school over what the state school would’ve given me.
Klaw: Yep. This is the great college scam – grad schools too, in some cases – where they have everyone convinced that the ROI is automatically there, when it’s not for most schools.

Michael: Guys like Weaver and Sabathia presumably wouldn’t make their teams if they were 24 and making $500k. Is it fair to ask then, why don’t those teams just realize the sunk cost and release them?
Klaw: In Weaver’s case they might have to do that – how can you let him start if Carlos Perez could just catch Weaver’s fastball with his teeth?

Adam: Would you start Swanson in AAA and Albies in AA?
Klaw: No. Swanson in AA, Albies in high-A. SEC to AAA is a huge jump.

Matt: Ever seen Tetsuto Yamada or Yuki Yangita play (current NPB MVPs)? think either or both have the tools to be impact players in MLB if the ever came over?
Klaw: Don’t think I have, or at least not in too long to matter.

Ed: Hi Keith, Saw a Gooden comp for Cease’s curveball. Fair?
Klaw: No, not fair.

Andy: Patrick Kane’s Wikipedia page no longer mentions the Sexual Assault Investigation.
Klaw: Wikipedia is never wrong, you know.

Lindsay: Where in the 14th Amendment? Does equal protection apply to felons who want to vote? To people who want to marry their daughter?
Klaw: Ah yes, the incest argument, a favorite of SSM opponents (which I know you said you’re not). The government has a clear, compelling interest to prevent procreation by people that closely related due to the genetic consequences. This supersedes the 14A rights you’re claiming. As for felons voting … has this been tested? Perhaps such bans aren’t constitutional. I don’t know.

Jamie: So if Mike Trout gets accused of sexual assault with no charges and then has the triple crown locked up in September we should ignore him? I’m sure you’d do that.
Klaw: If the claim is like the one against Kane, then yes, we should cover him less, or, if we must cover him at all, in a way that doesn’t shame the victim or cast the allegations as a positive for the player. Your straw men are really tiring.

Jason: What is Eduardo Rodriguez ceiling?
Klaw: Number one starter.

Scrapper: Better pitcher over the next 3 years: Stroman or Gausman?
Klaw: Stroman.

John: Do you consider 4 seam/2 seam/Curve a 2 or 3 pitch mix? I’ve seen comments both ways on Tyler Duffy with one side arguing its not enough to succeed long term as a starter.
Klaw: I’d call that a two-pitch mix.

Jason: Do you tweet out when you are having a chat? I feel like every week you don’t I end up checking your blog like ten times
Klaw: Yes. This week I didn’t have time to set up the chat room in advance, though, because I was on the move. Family is out here in AZ with me.

Corey: Deven Marrero a good fit for STL ? Would the Sox move him and what would be a proper return if so ?
Klaw: Now that’s a move I’d like for them. One good pitching prospect in return.

Jeff: You like Corey Ray more than Buddy Reed?
Klaw: Oh God yes, not even close. I don’t think Reed will hit. Bad swing from both sides. Just looks real good in the uniform.

Jason: Where does Eddy Julio Martinez start out at?
Klaw: I’m guessing low-A, but I haven’t even asked any clubs stuff like this lately because I know they won’t make those decisions till the last week or so of March.

Rob: Putting aside pitchers, the “injury prone” label for certain batters seems a little lazy. There’s always going to be a sample size issue. Where are we at on this? Health is a skill? Or more complicated?
Klaw: Health is a “skill” in the sense that some players clearly have it more than others. I guess you can learn or improve a skill, whereas health may just be inborn.

Tom: Is an easy prediction for this year that Trout will be the best player in the AL again and finish second in the MVP voting because the Angels miss the playoffs and he doesn’t lead the league in RBI?
Klaw: Yep, Vegas won’t even take your action on that one.

Jason: Chances that Corey Seager’s career surpasses his brother Kyle?
Klaw: Better than even. I’ve always said Corey was the better brother. Kyle has peaked higher than I expected, but I’d be very surprised if Corey didn’t have several 6+ win seasons.

Scrapper: Will Kevin Maitan immediately be a top 10 prospect when he signs with a team?
Klaw: No, not at all. Getting way too far ahead of yourself on a player who’ll be just 16 when that happens.

Adam: Thoughts on Dakota Hudson at Miss State?
Klaw: I’ll refer you to Longenhagen’s last draft blog post on that one.

Craig: The Brewers’s competition for CF features more players than the cast of Too Many Cooks. Can Keon Broxton break through and be a good stopgap until Brett Phillips is ready?
Klaw: Michael Reed is better.

Lindsay: Thanks for taking my questions and answering them politely! We can agree to disagree, but I appreciate it.
Klaw: You’re welcome. I should probably qualify every answer with “i’m not a lawyer” but if you’re here you probably knew that. I’m just a guy with lots of opinions.

Mike: How good is Cal Quantril and Is there any chance he could fall to the Phillies at 2.1 this June ?
Klaw: If he does, it would probably be a Daz Cameron type deal where they’ve worked it out for him to fall. It’s not legal but I’m fine with it – the system basically forces teams to do it, and it means elite players get paid.

Sean: Is Jose Quintana the most underrated pitcher in majors?
Klaw: I don’t know how you’d measure that but yeah, he’s very underrated.

J: Hey Harvard nerd, Rich Gossage says you don’t know shitt
Klaw: Best part is how many “nerds” pushed to get his Luddite ass into the Hall of Fame.

Will in Vero: Tanner Roark — ready to be a solid starter again?
Klaw: I say yes.

John: With you’re earlier answer on pitch mix, you would agree with Tyler Duffy not succeeding long term as a starter? I assume with his curve his floor is above average bullpen arm?
Klaw: What he did in 2015 was way above any expectations I had for him, and also well above what he did in the minors, so yes, I’m expecting regression … or for him to make my annual “guys I was wrong about” list in September.

Klaw: That’s all for this week’s chat – I need to get lunch and head to a ballpark! I’ll definitely chat again next week between my spring trips.