Klawchat 1/7/16.

Klaw: Don’t laugh – I heard it happened before. Klawchat.

Eric, Arlington, VA: Hi Keith, how the hell did David Eckstein get two votes for the HOF? I don’t know what’s more absurd, him getting two or him getting twice as many votes as Garret Anderson, who is probably 10x better.
Klaw: I have two problems with these votes. One is that they show those voters aren’t taking the responsibility and privilege of voting very seriously. If you don’t want to respect the vote, fine – abstain. Surrender your vote. But don’t throw away votes on the Ecksteins or the Jay Bells of the world. The other is that voters might vote for clearly unqualified candidates rather than voting for candidates with better cases. Chaz Scoggins voted for Eckstein; his ballot was otherwise quite good, with 8 players I’d have had on my own list of 10. But he could not possibly argue that Eckstein was the 10th best player on the ballot – better than Edmonds or Trammell, to name two guys he omitted. So he voted for, say, the top 9 players in his opinion, plus someone who was definitely not the 10th-best … and that 10th-best guy would have benefited far more from the vote.

Bruce: Are you starting to load up on stock (or index funds) right now, or waiting to see how much further the markets will drop?
Klaw: I don’t try to time the market. I invest in index funds (basically just my 401k … we’ve put money into renovating our house rather than investing) and just add every month.

Nick: Hi Keith… I have made my way through all of Chandler’s and Hammett’s works and am currently about midway through MacDonald’s Archer stories. Have a recommendation for what should be next for a hard-boiled fan?
Klaw: Big fan of Rex Stout’s Nero Wolfe novels, although they don’t have the violent aspect of the other two. You might also like Jim Thompson’s noir crime novels.

Jason: With Oakland trading Lawrie that Donaldson trade looks really really really bad for Beane doesn’t it? I mean one prospect for Donaldson is crazy.
Klaw: It’ll never look like a good deal for Oakland but Barreto might be a star and is at least a damn good prospect.

Jeff: I don’t understand the love for Hoffman and not for Edgar Martinez. How can you bash a guy for not playing defense but applaud a guy for only pitching one inning?
Klaw: Because otherwise rational writers and fans remain obsessed with the save statistic.

Justin (DC): Re: Raines and Bagwell in the Hall of Fame, Raines and Bagwell got very close this year, but do they have a shot next year? I worry that both (particularly Raines) were helped a great deal by the voter purge, but the voter pool will not change as much next year. Without change in the voter pool, will he get the 6% he needs to join?
Klaw: Raines will benefit from his last year on the ballot; I don’t think any player has gotten as close as those two guys did without getting in. We should see those two and at least one of Vlad (whose reputation exceeds the value advanced metrics put on his career) or Pudge (who will probably get blacklisted by some voters over PED suspicions). It’s not out of the question we get Hoffman too.

Mitch Cupcheck: Can you help settle a chili debate? My wife likes to saute the peppers and onions we use before they enter the dutch oven with the meat and other ingredients. My thought is, with chili being more of a stew, throwing them in raw and letting the whole thing simmer for 90-120 minutes will soften them plenty. Which side are you on?
Klaw: Sweat them, don’t saute them.

Mitch Cupcheck: By the way, how is your daughter feeling?
Klaw: Thanks for asking. She feels better, and the fever has been down for over 24 hours now, but she’s still coughing like she’s had a pack-a-day habit since birth. I think she’s also got a little cabin fever since, with the pneumonia and the holidays, she hasn’t been in school in over two weeks.

Michael: What do you think of Vlad Guerrero’s case for the HOF? His fWAR is a lot lower than I would have guessed.
Klaw: I think he’ll get in anyway, but his “analytical” case is a hard one – he gets crushed for bad defense once his legs started going. It’s a bit of the Sheffield argument, although Sheff is also hurt by PED suspicions. If Sheff had been a full-time DH his whole career, he’d have much more support from the online/analytical crowd.

Derek Harvey: How do you like the Chris Carter signing for Milwaukee. Of the 1B FA out there, which would you have taken were you the Brewers?
Klaw: Solid scrap-heap signing. Type of move they should be looking to make while they wait for the farm system to spit out more big leaguers.

Elton: Paul DePodesta to the Cleveland Browns is not a move I would have ever expected but (as a Browns fan) intrigues me a lot. Curious that he would leave baseball though, no?
Klaw: No, I think Depo’s a brilliant guy who enjoys intellectual challenges, and will certainly find one there, probably exceeding anything he was likely to find in MLB.

John: Are you shocked that Edmonds fell off the ballot?
Klaw: No, but I wish he had not. He was at least a borderline candidate, and someone I would have likely checked off if I had a ballot and had more than ten slots.

Anonymous: Rank these sketch comedy show: Python, SNL, Kids in the Hall, Mad TV
Klaw: Python over everyone.

Tom: What was AJ Pollock’s perceived ceiling when he was drafted? It wasn’t this high, right?
Klaw: Right. I don’t think anyone saw this power ceiling. I absolutely did not.

Johnny (Woburn, MA): What is the ceiling of Rafael Devers on the Red Sox? More of a Wily Mo Pena type, or Miguel Sano? Thanks!
Klaw: I think his ceiling is more that of a white guy.

Tom: Not a question, but I did want to tell you that your review of Jonathan Strange and Mr Norrell caused me to purchase it on iTunes. I loved the book, and I was unsure if the series would live up to it. Thanks!
Klaw: Glad to hear it – hope you enjoy it as much as I did. If you hate it, please don’t fire walnuts at me.

JT: Does the Brewers return for Gomez look better now because of the saturated outfield market in FA?
Klaw: I think it looks better now because Houser looked so much better after he got to Milwaukee.

Nick: I’m getting more and more excited about JP Crawford. If he reaches the upper quartile of his potential, do you think he could be a .300/.400/.500 type of guy? Essentially what I’m asking is if you think the power potential is there for something like that.
Klaw: Don’t think he’ll have that kind of power but I do think he could peak at .300/.380/.450. The guy you described is a runaway MVP.

sam: no question this time, just a thanks for the chats, and a comment that (based on the chats & this blog) you’re an interesting dude.
Klaw: You’re welcome, and thank you. I hope to be interesting because it keeps me employed. Plus I don’t want to ever be boring.

BirderBob: Trey Mancini strikes me as a guy whom the prospect analysts don’t love, but who simply gets it done. Am I crazy think he’s the Orioles starting 1B by the end of the year?
Klaw: Scouts don’t like him either. Yes, I think you’re crazy to think that.

Brian: Matt Strahm in the Royals system. Do you like him as a prospect and do you think he is a starter or a bullpen guy? If a starter what kind of upside do you see? Thank you.
Klaw: Chance for a starter but much more likely a quality reliever. Has thrown harder in the past than what I saw from him in the playoffs.

David: So with the recent voter purge for the HOF, I found it odd that the ex-Rockies’ beat writer for the Denver Post published his ballot today, giving full disclosure that he no longer covers baseball and instead has been the Denver Broncos’ beat writer for the last two years. I knew this already since I read him in the Post daily, but just wondering why he didn’t lose his vote… wasn’t the point to eliminate everyone who doesn’t cover the game regularly any more?
Klaw: They eliminated voters who were at least ten years away from covering the game, I believe. I think it’s a great first step although I’d be fine with further pruning.

dlf: I need advice from a coffee snob – how does a moka (not mocha) compare to an espresso and is getting a small moka pot a good addition?
Klaw: Espresso is brewed at a much higher pressure (at least 9 bar) than coffee from a moka pot so it’s a totally different product. A moka pot is a lot cheaper than a real espresso machine.

Jason: Is franklyn kilome a top 100 type prospect?
Klaw: I don’t think so, although I haven’t started assembling the global 100 yet (I do that last).

Fitzy: My theoretical ballot for next year: Bonds, Clemens, Bagwell, Raines, Schilling, Mussina, Edgar, Walker, Pudge, Guerrero. Does this make sense to you?
Klaw: Yes, mine would probably look quite similar.

Joe: How often do you read books a second time? Do you think rereading a book is a waste of time that could be spent reading a new book? Soooooo many books, so little time!
Klaw: I have read about 1100 books in my life and I think I’ve read fewer than 20 books twice. I read mostly fiction and if I already know the plot it’s hard to maintain my interest in reading a novel a second time around.

jay: Can Connor Greene fill a bullpen role in the big leagues this season? or should he be left in the minors?
Klaw: Leave in the minors. Rushing Castro didn’t do him any favors.

Jon: Anderson Espinosa future ace potential?
Klaw: Sure, although at 17 he’s got a lot of physical/health hurdles to clear.

Dustin: What are your thoughts on the Rangers/Marlins talks of Chi Chi for Ozuna?
Klaw: Don’t see why they’d want Ozuna with Brinson close to ready.

Mike: I believe Bagwell/Raines should get in, but it’s a joke that so many people would change their vote. They are either HOF’s in your opinion or not. Just as dumb that Piazza had to wait four years. Also, when I read your tweet yesterday I thought it said Baines will get in next year.
Klaw: I think most of the voting is dumb. We have way too many voters who don’t take the responsibility seriously. That’s how someone like Raines, who was obviously a HoFer when he played and whose career, evaluated objectively, more than meets the established standard, is going to take ten years to get in.

Scott: Can you compare the bats of Jesse Winker and Josh Bell? I know Bell changed positions so the comparison may make a little less sense. But I’m curious about their career paths. Is it as simple as Winker safer floor lower upside and Bell the more pop but average might not stay? Both take their walks. Does Bell give up switch hitting? Thanks very much.
Klaw: Bell has more upside but I don’t think his floor is that different; he has exceptional hand-eye coordination and great plate discipline, but has untapped power Winker can’t match.

Matt: What would be a reasonable stat line for Hector Olivera this season?
Klaw: I’m just not on it – he may have some power but the approach isn’t great and every scout I’ve spoken to about him has killed his lack of athleticism.

Ray Grace: Assuming the deal goes through what is Maeda’s ceiling for the Dodgers?
Klaw: Fourth starter type. Doesn’t seem to be real physical or durable and he’s already had some little arm issues.

Ray: Can Ian Happ handle 2b on an everyday basis? Can he be a .275-20 HR-20 SB type hitter for the Cubs?
Klaw: I think he can although they’ve also considered playing him in CF. He’s a pretty good athlete despite a body that doesn’t immediately look it.

Michael: I don’t think either should be in, but how does Hoffman do so much better than Wagner? Shouldn’t voters who value closers dig a little deeper and see they were pretty similar?
Klaw: Saves. It’s entirely about saves. That one stat weighs far too heavily in voters’ minds.

White haired clown: Obviously, frank isn’t the #1 in Boston, but when I saw the David Price contract all I could think was here we go again with the reckless spending philosophy and long term structural problems. Any comment?
Klaw: I don’t agree – no problem with that contract, and I don’t think Frankie Troglodytidae is making the calls there.

Sam: Your thoughts on jeff Kent as a HOF? Numbers are ver favorable to biggio but no where near the amount of support. Why do you think that is?
Klaw: Poor defensive player with makeup questions and unfair suspicions of PED use?

Colin: Thoughts on Alex Gordon deal?
Klaw: Very good deal for KC. Salary is in line with or even below what offense costs right now, and while I preferred three years given his age, four isn’t unreasonable.

Michael: The Dodgers are really accumulating talent in their front office. Is that a little bit of a market inefficiency?
Klaw: Or they’re trying to reenact the opening credits of “Too Many Cooks.”

Steve: Have any of the people who did not vote for Griffey been identified yet? If so did they explain their logic?
Klaw: No, of course not. There is zero enforced accountability in this process.

Roddy: What is the most optimistic callup time for Benintendi?
Klaw: Schwarber and Conforto reached the majors about a year after signing. I don’t see why Benintendi couldn’t do the same.

Jeff Chisholm: Do you agree that the Oregon “protestors” should face felony charges once their temper tantrum ends?
Klaw: They should face charges but I don’t know what the applicable laws are.

Marshall: Longenhagen, your co-pilot on ESPN for scouting/draft articles, had a great point about the potential growth in popularity of baseball in Korea. Just as comment, wouldn’t it be awesome to baseball take hold as a major sport in Korea, or in a place like Germany should Kepler pan out?
Klaw: Yep, I’m always rooting for players from novel countries – did you know the Twins had a GCL pitcher this year from Moldova? – to succeed for this very reason.

Steve Culber: Just curious…..why are you so high on BBC shows and rarely speak of the (in my opinion) superior HBO shows?
Klaw: Perhaps I don’t think those superior HBO shows are superior? I do find British shows in general focus more on plot and dialogue and less on action or violence to move things along.

Mike: Captain Jetes the first to 100%?
Klaw: I still say no one does it.

Lee Snyder: My favorite porn star is Savanna Samson…who is yours?
Klaw: Find me one who wasn’t previously a victim or rape or sexual abuse and maybe we can talk.

Tom: For all the (well-deserved) criticism that the D-Backs’ front office receives with regard to prospect valuation, is it fair to say they do a good job with prospect development? It seems like they are bringing up a good number of their prospects and that they exceed expectations more than would be expected.
Klaw: The current regime has only been there a year, so I think it’s way premature to credit or blame them for player development results.

jay: who would you prefer over the next five years Dalton Pompey or Kevin Pillar
Klaw: Pompey has much more offensive upside and is a good defender. Pillar is a lot like Kiermaier for me – you have to place an enormous amount of trust in single-year defensive metrics to believe they will continue to be as valuable as their WAR totals from 2015 indicated.

Tyler: Did the John Hart make a mistake by publicly saying he expects the Braves to be back in contention by 2017? At this point, that seems rather unlikely, right?
Klaw: Unlikely given where the Mets are and where the Nats could be. Not totally outrageous given the state of their farm system at the moment.

Corey: If you were made the HoF czar, how many players roughly would you take out (Fingers, Rice, etc) and how many players do you think you would add in who are off the ballot now (Trammell, Dewey, etc) ?
Klaw: Trammell, Whitaker, Edmonds, Evans all would go in. I’d take a lot more out – Rice, Sutter, Catfish Hunter, Lloyd Waner, Maranville, Hack Wilson, Lindstrom, and more.

Patrick: Which sitcoms are you watching these days? I know you were a big fan of Parks and Rec and its great cast. I’m finding Brooklyn Nine-Nine’s cast very good as well.
Klaw: Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Masters of None are it.

JC: Will the Mets hit enough to really contend next year? They’ve lost their 3 and 4 hitters with not much replacing them.
Klaw: But they’ll also get a full year of Conforto, Walker to replace Murphy, hopefully a healthy Wright, even a healthy Lagares would be an improvement.

John MN: What do you think of the game theory voters: I think there are > 10 HoF on the ballot and Griffey is getting in no matter what, so vote for the 10 next.
Klaw: The only rational argument I can see for omitting him – but if that were the case, wouldn’t these three voters have spoken up by now?

Matthew: I have quite athletic 7 & 8 year old boys who really love sports, but they are pressured at this early age to pick a sport and specilize in it all year long (especially here in Hawaii). I don’t want to force them to pick one this early, as I think it will most likely lead to burn out, but if I don’t, they won’t develop. How important is it to develop skills specific to a sport, versus letting them play different sports and increasing their overall athleticism, for future sports opportunities?
Klaw: I don’t have a good, informed answer to that, but several sports-medicine experts have decried such early specialization.

JC: Do you workout?
Klaw: Girl, look at this body.

Steven Avery: Any interest in Making a Murderer?
Klaw: No because it will likely infuriate me. I’m sure it’s an excellent series, but that this shit goes on in the United States – probably all the time – is beyond depressing. We can’t make a ten-part documentary about every single miscarriage of justice, so you know most of them go unpunished.

Anonymous: With minimal salary on the books in the next year, would you look into any of the better free agents left if you’re the Phillies?
Klaw: Yes, but only if they were players likely to either 1) offer trade value in July or November or 2) to help the major league club in 2018.

JC: You should watch New Girl. It’s great.
Klaw: I tried, but I didn’t find it funny.

Marshall: What would the workload/expectations be for Brady Aiken coming into the year? I am not a Cleveland fan, but hate to see young players have their careers stopped by injury, so I am hoping for him.
Klaw: Guessing he doesn’t pitch at all till extended spring, which would be about 13 months off surgery, maybe not till June, which would be 15 months. Can’t rush him given the history there. I want to see him healthy, and for everyone who suspected the TJ surgery wouldn’t work out the same as it would for most pitchers to be wrong. But we won’t know much until he’s ready to throw at full strength and I see no reason for Cleveland to rush that.

Eric: Would you ever entertain an offer to run a team in a sport other than baseball?
Klaw: Can’t see myself enjoying that.

Mike: Why do competitive balance picks exist? The “disadvantaged” D-backs just signed Greinke for almost 200M
Klaw: They’re yet another terrible policy holdover from the Selig years. Both those picks and free-agent compensation should be axed in the next CBA. Just sever the draft from free agency. I will be curious to see if either side tries to alter the top of the draft to discourage “tanking,” however.

Mike P: I understand and agree with the arguments against Hoffman’s HOF candidacy. But I think it’s hypocritical to use the “HOF as a museum” argument to vote for PED guys (which I’m in agreement with) and not apply to Hoffman who succeeded at one stat, that while incredibly flawed and arbitrary, has been celebrated by the baseball establishment. Should “saves” be represented in the HOF? (Again, wouldn’t vote for Hoffman, but I’m not losing sleep about people who did for this reason)
Klaw: The problem I have with that is that the media invented the save (well, one mediot in particular), then celebrated players who racked up a lot of them. It feels awfully self-congratulatory, all while the stat in question has no real meaning.

Eric: In theory, if you could take a dominant reliever like Betances and stretch him out a bit so that he usually pitches 2 innings each time out and maintains about the same effectiveness over 120-130 innings per season, could that be as valuable as say a good #3 starter?
Klaw: Yes, I think it could/would be, although you would probably have to give that pitcher at least one day off after each outing.

Joey: Speaking of players from “novel countries” do you see any hope for Gift Ngope to have a major league career?
Klaw: Could see him get a cup of coffee but that’s probably it. Same as happened to Alex Liddi. Heck, MLB should even encourage a last-place team to do so some September so they can market it back in South Africa.

Tom: Hi Keith, enough with the HoF “controversies.” I’m wondering specifically about Benintendi, and how you see him profiling. Assuming he stays in CF, does he have 60 potential? More? Less? And if he were to move to RF, does he become a bit less, well, special? Thanks.
Klaw: Absolutely stays in CF for me – above-average runner who played CF well in college. It’s star upside, just without a whole lot of track record coming into 2015.

MIke: How much of C. Gonzalez’ salary will the Rockies need to eat to get some kind of meaningful prospect in return for him?
Klaw: I feel like someone would want him at $12 million a year for the next two years enough to give up a prospect for that, which would leave them paying $13 million of the $37MM he’s still owed.

Marshall: The medical community has made great strides in fixing injuries that used to be career threatening, like torn ACL, patella tendon, meniscus, etc. TJ surgery has seemingly even had an increased success rate in the last decade. But it seems like shoulder surgery improvements haven’t quite caught up yet, and maybe that is only my perception as a not-doctor. Maybe the rotator cuff muscles are just more delicate?
Klaw: The shoulder joint is substantially more complicated than the elbow joint and I doubt shoulder surgeries will ever become as routine as TJ.

Ciscoskid: Susac for Ozuna, is there equal value despite the stated desire for SP by all the reports?
Klaw: Probably, although I think I’d rather have the six years of Susac than four of Ozuna, although the Giants don’t have the need for Susac and they have a real short-term need for a RHH outfielder.

Adam: Are you a believer in Ender Inciarte?
Klaw: I believe he exists, yes.

Ciscoskid: If I am the GM of the Rockies I stop chasing the unicorn pitcher who can be dominant in Coors and build the best lineup that bludgeons teams. Is this the better way to build that roster and then hope you find a unicorn of a SP?
Klaw: It’s closer to the approach I would take in that job – build the best lineup possible, without totally ignoring defense (we know the damage allowing a high BABIP can do there), and toss the traditional pitching model entirely. O’Dowd tried to do this but frankly I think he had the wrong manager for it … well, Tracy was the wrong manager on a lot of levels, but especially for implementing an entirely new pitching paradigm.

Rob: In the years Hoffman was a primary closer (1994-2009), he averaged about 36 saves a year. In 2015, 11 pitchers saved that many games. Ten more pitchers saved at least 30. It’s just not that special of a skill–putting Hoffman in the Hall of Fame is basically rewarding him for staying healthy for 15 years.
Klaw: In a role where staying healthy and effective has been difficult. I don’t argue that he was better than many closers, but he was not exceptional in any aspect of the game except for the saves. Hoffman had 28.0 career rWAR in 1089 innings with a 2.87 ERA while pitching most of his career in great pitchers’ parks. K-Rod has 23.9 career rWAR in 892 innings with a 2.69 ERA while pitching part of his career in the AL. Is K-Rod a Hall of Famer? Because if Hoffman is, K-Rod is going to be too.

Paul: Does Addison Russell have another level to him? Does take his game up another notch?
Klaw: Several. I think he’s going to be a star. You don’t see hands like that come along very often in baseball.

Marshall: KLaw you raise an interesting point in regard to manager’s not be willing to implement more radical or “non-traditional” approaches to in game situations. We have to be getting close to a time when a GM’s are no longer forced to choose former ballplayers as their skipper’s, right?
Klaw: Doesn’t seem to be improving much. If anything we are devolving into a time where more MLB executives are hiring their friends than are conducting full searches for the most qualified candidates. It’s a negative trend for the sport overall and particularly damning for minorities working in the sport.

Dave: Some High School players are now being asked to hit the ball of a tee to measure exit velocity…is this really a good way to measure bat speed? Do you use this method.
Klaw: While exit velocity is interesting I have seen no studies that link it to anything we might care about, such as some sort of increased production. Right now it’s a fun toy.

Dana: What is Starlin Castro? A 200-hit per year All-Star or one of the worst offensive players in baseball?
Klaw: He might be both. That’s all for this week’s chat. I may be traveling next Thursday, in which case I might cancel next week and chat again on the 21st; I’ll make sure to tweet and post on Facebook if I am indeed chatting. Thank you all for reading and for all of your questions.