Klaw: Wake up from your reverie – it’s Klawchat.
Jeff: Not sure if you wrote about it, but reaction to the final package from Houston for Giles?
Klaw: I revised the post and think the balance didn’t shift, as Philly gave up a good 17-yo prospect in Arauz to get a better guy back in Appel (over Fisher).
Frank: Going to see Star Wars with your daughter, or is it not your thing?
Klaw: She told me unprompted she is not interested. And it’s hard for me to get hyped up when The Phantom Menace was a dud. Last time I enjoyed a Star Wars movie I still had action figures and a C3PO carrying case.
Brian: The Inciarte-Soler swap seems to be talked about a lot this week. What’s your take on that? Fair trade?
Klaw: I wouldn’t do that if I were the Cubs. Giving up on Soler that early makes no sense to me.
Nick: I’ve noticed that you don’t include many rap songs/albums on your music lists. Is that because you’re just not a huge fan of the modern genre or have you just not heard anything you like from rappers recently?
Klaw: Both. Don’t think most modern rappers hold a candle to the Golden Age greats. It’s become an overproduced genre without the technical skills of the Rakims and the 2Pacs.
Nick: Can Mark Appel still be a #2 starter? Maybe even an ace if everything clicks?
Klaw: I think #2 is a lot more realistic, but he needs a few significant adjustments and, for all Houston has done right the last few years, they absolutely mishandled him in several ways.
rangers: What do you make of DeShields? Love him as a Rangers fan, but he looked very suspect in CF last year.
Klaw: I think he’s a LF in the long run. Better player than he appeared to be this time last winter, not as good as he appeared to be the year before.
Nick: Why are we seeing so many closers getting dealt for sizable packages? Phillies got a ton for Giles. Is that just because Dombrowski set the market with the Kimbrel trade or are these “relief aces” just that valuable?
Klaw: Giles offers five years of control, the next two at basically no cost. Even if Houston realistically figures they’ll get 2-3 years before he blows out or sucks, just because that’s how closers go, they’ll be paying maybe $5-6 million total for those years and still retain the option to keep longer. That’s really valuable.
Oren: The Jays seem to be weighing, again, the Sanchez to the rotation or bullpen question. Of course, at this point, they’d need to add a couple of relievers to afford themselves the luxury of moving Sanchez back. How would you handle it?
Klaw: If they don’t fix his delivery by lengthening his stride this is a waste of their time. He won’t have the command to start and will remain an injury risk. Short striders get hurt. Taijuan Walker hasn’t been the same since he shortened his stride, and Tyler Skaggs blew out even after the Angels lengthened him out again.
Hermione: In your appearance on Buster Olney’s podcast yesterday, you seemed to agree that Cooperstown should use objective voting criteria and just present facts (e.g., banned for betting on baseball) on the plaque. What, then, to do with players already there with hagiographic plaques that elide their misdeeds? And, of course, who decides and how?
Klaw: I have no problem revising plaques of players already in, but would be uncomfortable with any process to remove players for non-baseball reasons.
Steven: How concerned are you about Luis Ortiz’s conditioning woes? He seems like the kind of guy who will constantly battle conditioning issues like Sandoval
Klaw: I think the problem in 2015 was that he didn’t do the conditioning thing at all. Looks like he just ate.
CB: More likely to make the Hall of Fame in your lifetime: Pete Rose or Alex Rodriguez?
Klaw: A-Rod. Rose’s candidacy is probably dead unless Jeff Idelson’s successor changes the ruling.
Steve: Fangraphs has the Indians projected to total the most WAR in the AL Central. Do you agree that they are the favorites? The Royals are losing some guys, but still seem to be better, and the White Sox should be drastically improved.
Klaw: I don’t like any projections like that midway through the offseason. It’s silly – like telling everyone they have two hours for a test, then grading them after 45 minutes.
Chris: Is there much of a defensive upgrade between Flores and Cabrera at SS? To me it seems negligible.
Klaw: Negligible. Seems like the Mets missed the memo about Asdrubal being awful at short.
Matt: Thoughts on the Orioles signing of Hyun Soo Kim?
Klaw: I like the bat and approach, doubt he’s a 30-HR guy here as he was in the KBO in 2015. Might be a nice bargain signing, guy with OBP skills and enough power to make them work.
Sean: Hi Keith. Big fan. Legitimately, how mad were you at Curt Schilling on Baseball Tonight when you said you’d be out on Chris Davis and he was kind of dismissive. Karl said you threw down your mike.
Klaw: I wasn’t mad at all (and I didn’t throw down the mic – Karl was joking). I think Curt was wrong. It happens.
John: Curious whether you have any thoughts on Martin Amis’s writings. I loved early stuff, but lately it often seems tedious to me.
Klaw: Only read Money, which was good, but I couldn’t help comparing it to his dad’s Lucky Jim, which is fucking hilarious.
Warren: 35 years old, bad medicals (reportedly), and costs a first round draft pick.. the Dodgers have to punt on Iwakuma, right?
Klaw: I assume so. They can’t exactly be surprised – guy seemed to be made of glass with Seattle.
Steve: Would a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League mean more in evaluation even though it is a shorter season because of the level of competition? Mac Williamson seems to have performed better there than at Triple-A, is it significant?
Klaw: No. Don’t read anything into stats there, especially for hitters as it’s a very high-offense environment (altitude, tired pitchers).
Matt: What are your thoughts on Cornelius Randolph? How high is his ceiling?
Klaw: Can really hit. No clue where he plays. LF I guess.
Ryan: What are the best 5 non-fiction books you’ve read this year?
Klaw: Undeniable, Paleofantasy, The Sixth Extinction, Charlatan (Pope Brock), and The Best Team Money Can Buy.
chris: Phillies have added James Russel, David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey, and Edward Mujica recently. Klentak’s short term plan jive with what you’d have done? Seem like good moves to me
Klaw: I like that approach to building a bullpen. Don’t pay for proven relievers when their failure rate is something like 50%.
AJ: Hey Keith thanks for doing these chats as usual. The Giants seem to be taking a gamble on both Samardzija and Cueto. Which is the better bet to be a good deal for the Giants? What would you say were the issues with Shark last year? The stuff seemed to be there
Klaw: Cueto gives you that shot at ace upside that Shark might not offer.
Ray: Can WIllie Calhoun be a future big leaguer, or will his D hold him back. The kid can hit.
Klaw: He will hit his way to the majors. Kind of like Randolph – it’ll play, somewhere.
Billy: You’re a lyrics guy. You love Alt J. Are you claiming/insinuating that you can understand the lyrics to Alt J?
Klaw: I’m surprised anyone can’t. Although the reviewer who trashed An Awesome Wave for Pitchfork totally whiffed on the various literary/film allusions (Leon, Last Exit to Brooklyn, etc.).
Scott: Statcast, any initial thoughts of the information it provided this year?
Klaw: Data is fine, but it’s not a substitute for analysis. I had readers try to argue with me on players (Cuddyer was one) by citing exit velocity. That information is cool, but without context – without analysis telling us what, say, 1 extra mph off the bat actually means in predictive terms – it’s kind of useless.
Bradley: Is Kenta Maeda more than a back-of-the-rotation guy?
Klaw: I think that’s what he is. Don’t think he’s a good bet for 180 innings.
MIke: Can AJ Reed be a difference maker for the Astros this year?
Klaw: I think so and hope they give him a chance.
Adam Trask: It seems the Astros determined Appel would never have enough deception or movement on his fastball. Agree?
Klaw: Agree that that’s what they thought, disagree that it’s true. They insisted he throw his four-seamer rather than his two-seamer. Well, what did they expect?
Craig: Is Garin Cecchini a guy who can produce at the big league level with the change of scenery (and no one blocking him at 3B) or is he just a Triple A player?
Klaw: I think he ends up a useful big leaguer, maybe even a regular, but I have no clue what happened to him in 2015.
Jack: Do you still think Franklin Barreto can stay at short?
Klaw: Yes, why wouldn’t I? Did something change?
Steve: Family of four (12-year-old twins) who love Catan, what would make a good addition?
Klaw: 7 Wonders.
Adam: Which guy in the Braves system is most likely to be a legitimate #1? Allard? Touki?
Klaw: Touki has the huge upside. If that all clicks he’s a monster.
Ed: Hi Keith, Soler closed his stance a bit after his return from the DL late in the season. It really seemed to help him on the slow stuff away – where had had previously struggled all season. While SSS applies, could it be that he’s figured something out that will help him going forward?
Klaw: Slow away is indeed the weakness, especially the slider moving down and away, but I thought it was more poor recognition than mechanics.
TedT: In your articles on ESPN, you seem to use WAR to determine if a player is worth his salary. How do you use WAR to do that calculation. For example, a 5 WAR guy is a 5 WAR worth $15 million/year salary while a 2 WAR guy is worth $8 million/year.
Klaw: I don’t do that. Dollar value is nonlinear and is team-specific.
AH: Hosting my first xmas eve next week. Little nervous abuot the big crowd and was looking for more ideas of things to serve while sticking to a semi traditional seven fish italian dinner. any ideas?
Klaw: Think dishes that scale. Halve 2 pounds of Brussels sprouts, toss with oil and salt, roast at 450 till browned. I like to finish them in some kind of sweet/sour sauce like a mix of honey, vinegar, soy sauce, and sesame oil.
John: I’m sort of playing devil’s advocate here — I vote Republican, but based on fiscal issues not the issues below. That being said… you comment occasionally on voting for a person or party that is “pro-science.” I get that nomenclature is intended to apply primarily to climate, maybe secondarily to a few other things like stem cells. But isn’t the science increasingly against the Dems’ position on abortion? In the time since Roe was decided, the science has moved dramatically toward supporting the idea that a fetus is a life form. You can argue that there should be an exception to allow for killing it (as there is for a soldier or an executioner), but isn’t the pro-choice argument that it’s just tissue intellectually dishonest?
Klaw: Not at all – Nye addresses this in Undeniable.
Totes: Have you heard the new Baroness? Not sure it fits your line of metal, but it’s quite fantastic.
Klaw: It feels like I should love it, but I haven’t found any of their songs that really clicked with me.
Jason: I have a friend whose son was throwing 80 last year and then grew 5 inches to 6’5″ and is built like a truck. Now he’s at 91 and received scholarship offers from some SEC schools and has been invited to scouting combines by three MLB clubs so far. Is it unusual for someone to come out of the blue like this or do you see a lot of late physical bloomers?
Klaw: Happens all the time. That’s part of why scouting 14-year-olds in the Dominican is ridiculous.
Evan: Will Jomar Reyes’ size preclude him from sticking at third? Will the bat play at first or in the outfield?
Klaw: Don’t think he stays at third. Bat could play anywhere if he reaches a realistic ceiling.
Warren: Dave Cameron proposed Seager, Montas, Barnes and Guerrero for Archer and McGee. Fair?
Klaw: Awful for the Rays.
JP: Keith, big Reds fan who wholly supports blowing it all up and did so 1.5 years ago. I thought it was the right time to trade Frazier, as I think he has probably peaked – but what a poor return. The Reds must REALLY love Peraza, is all I can come up with. Have you heard from anyone who liked the deal for Cincy?
Klaw: No, I haven’t. If they put Peraza back at shortstop I could see more value for them in the end, but still, that’s all you get back? Schebler’s an extra guy and Dixon is an org player.
David: You’re forgetting to end each response with #AndYouKnowIt
Klaw: Good point, thanks for the reminder.
MikeM: Has Gary Sanchez done enough this year to make himself a top prospect again? Do you see him replacing McCann down the line?
Klaw: Depends on what “top prospect” means. He’s better than he was a year ago, and not as good as some of the local hype seems to indicate. He has the physical capacity to be an everyday catcher, but the amount of work required to do so has, so far, exceeded his effort level. I was reminded in the AFL that he can REALLY throw, though.
Dan: Keith, let’s say tomorrow ESPN unfortunately goes out of business. What do you think you’d? What would you like to do in the short-term and long-term?
Klaw: I’ll write. Doesn’t particularly matter to me where I write, as long as I’m working with the right people. Not interested in working for anyone who favors clickbait over integrity.
Tom: Small market owner Arte Moreno has apparently said he’s out of the LF market. Is there much reason to think LAA can be anything more than a 83 win team?
Klaw: Sure, if they make a few additions. I understand your concern but nobody’s offseason is over yet.
Lyle: How much do you think the beaning affected DJ Peterson’s 2015 season? Any realistic chance of him returning to previous form?
Klaw: I think it screwed him up, and I also think he wasn’t quite as good as the high draft position implied.
mike: Board game rec for a soon to turn 7 year old? is there anything good a 4 year old can handle other than candyland?
Klaw: We played Carcassonne with my daughter when she was about 4.5 – she couldn’t win if we played normally, but we just focused her on playing the game and less about scoring. As she got older, she learned the game better (and still plays the app) and we could play it more seriously. I don’t believe in letting kids win games just so they don’t feel bad, but I’m fine with playing “soft” so that you don’t just destroy them. That doesn’t seem to accomplish much.
Marcus: I know you went to Harvard for your UG, but I’m thinking of applying to there (or Booth/Wharton). However I’ve got a job, car payment, wife, dogs, etc… It would be tough for me to uproot my life for 2-3 years in the pursuit of a prestigious MBA. Any advice? Did you work while you were at Tepper?
Klaw: Don’t do it. I don’t think full-time MBAs offer sufficient ROIs. Of course I ended up in a non-MBA industry but even so, unless you’re sure you’ll get the income boost after school, I don’t think it’s worth it.
Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Thoughts on Nat’s new bullpen? Assuming, of course, Papelbon is shot into the sun?
Klaw: Well they’ll be better off without Matt Williams warming guys up every day…
Ryan: I don’t mean to be the type of guy to find a silver lining in a domestic violence issue, but I gotta be that type of guy. If Aroldis were to get a 50 game suspension, reports say his free agency would be delayed by a year. Would that be a good thing for the Reds?
Klaw: That’s been raised within the industry too. You’re right: It is a silver lining on a situation that should not have a silver lining. And I would guess Aroldis files a grievance to get back the service time. But yeah, the Reds could end up gaining a year from him, which boosts his trade value, and the Josh Lueke situation proved that if you’re talented and not in jail, nothing short of a Commissioner-imposed blackballing will keep you out of work.
Dave: You realize that Bill Nye is an actor with a Bachelors Degree in Engineering and not a medical expert right?
Klaw: I realize what an ad hominem argument looks like. Dispute his content, not his resume.
Keith: Is it silly to think about d’Arnaud at a corner infield spot on occasion? Wright is not the same player, Duda can’t hit lefties, and the bat should play just about anywhere, AND reduces (theoretically) chance of injury. What do you look for in putting a catcher out in the field?
Klaw: I agree – and in October d’Arnaud looked overmatched catching all that velocity. He moves around well enough to play 1b or an outfield corner, I think. And maybe doing so keeps him healthy for 140 games.
Addoeh: What is the most stressful time of the year for you? Draft time? Spring training? Now (start prospect lists and FA articles)?
Klaw: Draft time is the worst because work includes late-night phone calls and my sleep is disrupted. Top 100 prospect time is very busy but I can still keep myself on some kind of regular schedule. Losing sleep runs me down very quickly.
John: Where do you get ideas for new music?
Klaw: Everywhere. I just listen to everything new that I can. Lot of good recs from readers over the years too.
Carlo: Can Jhoulys Chacín be a valuable piece for Atlanta this season, or is his arm too far gone?
Klaw: Worth a shot.
Manny: Are you still high on Rafael Devers? Many say he is Panda in the making and that doesn’t sound like a compliment.
Klaw: Anyone who says that is an idiot.
Kevin: Favorite Christmas movie to watch year after year? It’s got to be “A Wonderful Life” for me
Klaw: A Muppet Christmas Carol.
Keith: Rafael Montero is apparently pitching in a winter league game tonight. Any insight on what the hell happened to him? Has his missed his opportunity to be a SP at this point?
Klaw: Got hurt. Shoulder. Write off 2015 entirely and hope he’s healthy again next spring.
Scott: I feel like this deal with Cueto ends up being a 2-year deal when it’s all said and done. He’ll pitch well enough to opt out and go after one large contract, the Giants will let him walk, and they’ll use that money to pay MadBum, Panik, Duffy. If Cueto pitches average, the deal works out for SF, in my opinion. Thoughts?
Klaw: If that happens, the Giants might end up jumping for joy. Two good years and he opts out before the bomb explodes? Take it.
JG: Could the Twins acquire Jake McGee without giving up a Kohl Stewart type prospect?
Klaw: I think I could put together a very good package of their prospects without including Stewart or denting their 2016 major-league roster. But it might include Kepler and I’d trade Stewart before I deal Johannes.
Keith: Very much appreciate the cookbook reviews and your food blog posts. What sort of Christmas meals happen around the Law household? Do you partake in seafood feasts of seven?
Klaw: Wife is allergic to shellfish so that’s out. I might roast a pork shoulder or a whole bird. I try to put several vegetable dishes on the table so we don’t end up stuffing ourselves with meat and carbs before the mandatory pie.
Viktor: The buzz is dwindling on Reynaldo Lopez; has the shine (and semi-Giolito comparisons) worn off?
Klaw: Those comparisons never held any water. I think he’s a power 8th-9th inning guy, might sit 98-100 with a wipeout CB.
CJ: Who’s a prospect that you were so sure was going to be a star, but completely flamed out
Klaw: We don’t have that kind of time here.
Jack: You have been a harsh critic (and rightfully so) of guys like Luebke and Chapman. What would they need to do to earn a “second chance” in your eyes?
Klaw: I’d feel very differently if either guy actually served a prison sentence appropriate to the crime. Lueke is only a free man because his victim was so fucked up from the assault that she couldn’t testify and the DA allowed him to plead no contest to a much lesser charge. How on earth does anyone with a conscience sign that guy and claim that justice was done?
Oren: Are all of the opt-outs we’re seeing in top tier free agents just a trend? Or will they become the norm and even make their way into the mid-tier?
Klaw: Definitely a trend now, but I doubt they go away, and teams don’t seem to mind them.
Frank: Now that it is settled that there is global warming caused by humans, can we devote all of the research studying global warming to coming up with technologies to create cleaner energy that doesn’t cause as much global warming?
Klaw: I get the joke, but there are lots of clean energy sources that don’t contribute to climate change. The problem is that most of them are very expensive, and the one that isn’t – nuclear power – is considered a public menace thanks to a few very isolated incidents.
Anonymous: What is your outlook with Eugenio Suarez moving to Third base ?? Thanks
Klaw: I think that wastes his value.
Stu Martin: Curious as to what is your “go to” news source during major breaking news? I’m sure you reference multiple outlets but which one do you go to first?
Klaw: BBC News, even for stories in the US. I find them far more objective, with almost every national US outlet clearly leaning left or right. I just want to know what happened. And if it happens to come with a delightful British accent, so much the better.
Jackie: Will Bagwell or Schilling ever make the HOF? They both seem like surefire HOFers to me, but the voters seem to think otherwise.
Klaw: Bagwell gets in this year or next. Schilling gets in eventually but has to wait a lot longer. I think his social media gaffes hurt his candidacy, though. It’s unfair – voters shouldn’t be considering that – but with ten spots on the ballot and fifteen or more worthy candidates, I think he gets left off a few for “space” reasons that really aren’t about space. (And I’ll clarify, for the umpteenth time, I like Curt as a colleague and I’d vote for him if I had a ballot.)
Michael: What do you think the timeline is on Giolito? If he makes it to the majors this year, do you think it’s a mid-season callup or a September cup of tea? Thanks for the amazing chats!
Klaw: Midseason or before. He’s very close to ready. Hoping he starts in AAA and can use all his pitches now.
DO: I’ve seen so much disagreement on the opt-out issue this month. Why don’t people understand that the opt out, by definition, ONLY benefit the player and not the team. Seems to me that folks saying that the Price opt out is a good one for the tea are betting on A) great performance years 1-3, and B) a steep decline immediately after it. Why is this hard to understand?
Klaw: It’s easy to understand, but I think it oversimplifies. You can’t treat the phases A and B like two coin flips, where you have a 25% chance of each possible future: good A and B, good A and bad B, bad A and good B, bad A and bad B. The most likely outcome for almost every free agent is good A (good performance till the opt-out) and bad B (decline starts at some point after it). Players tend to get worse as they age. Hitters lose bat speed, pitchers handle smaller workloads and get hurt. The opt-out is a killer if you’re looking at the bad A-bad B combo, and in that case, the opt-out isn’t the reason the contract sucks – it sucked no matter what and the decision not to opt out is just adding insult to injury. I’m not disagreeing with your premise – price this out as a financial option and it’s a net negative for the team – but that the odds of the various scenarios are skewed enough and the dollars are now high enough that teams who previously would have said “no” will now consider them.
Michael: Ever been interested in going on a trivia game show? Jeopardy?
Klaw: I like trivia stuff but haven’t thought about anything like that. Might be a good way to raise money for charity?
Adam Trask: Sounds like you agree with Joe Sheehan that player opt outs for pitcher a dream for clubs. At what point to pitchers stop asking for them or clubs start pushing them?
Klaw: No reason for pitchers to stop asking for them – which is a sign that they’re not “wins” for clubs. Clubs would sooner push for shorter deals overall, I think.
Andy: Andy Marte has to be one of the biggest industry wide prospect misses right? I mean it isn’t even like injuries derailed him, just a total 4A hitter.
Klaw: Yeah. And I don’t know scouts who thought he’d flop. I’m sure they exist but I haven’t found any.
Ray: Alex Speier wrote yesterday that Manual Margot is a bottom of the order hitter. Do you agree with his assessment?
Klaw: No but I’d like to know exactly what he said … I don’t think Margot is, say, a guy who’ll be the 7th or 8th most productive hitter in a lineup.
Anonymous: Adam Warren. #3 upside or is that a bit too optimistic?
Klaw: WAY too optimistic. I think he’s a great swingman.
James: tons of people here in AZ saying it’s GREAT the Dbacks gave up Swanson and Blair! For Shelby Miller… What people dont get is they didnt get enough value in return… Like shouldn’t the Dbacks asked for one of the top Braves prospects in return? Instead we got an org guy
Klaw: The public liking or disliking a deal has as much impact on the deal’s ultimate success or failure as my opinion on the deal, which is to say NONE.
Brian: All else equal opt out is good for players, negative for team. These things are priced into the contracts though. So it’s not as if teams shouldn’t put them in deals, just need to price them appropriately.
Klaw: That’s a very succinct way to put it. And I agree.
Brian: There’s been some talk that Benintendi could make the big leagues in 2016. That seems crazy to me. What do you think his promotion pace is?
Klaw: Conforto and Schwarber just did it. Why can’t Benintendi, who was the best hitter in D1 last spring?
Jackie: It seems like baseball is swimming in money again. How far off is another round of expansion, and where would you put the (presumably) two expansion teams?
Klaw: I’ve heard no impetus for that – the league expanded in the 1990s to gain cash, but here they don’t need any. I think MLB needs to put teams into markets they’re not otherwise reaching. Cities that are seeing both population growth and rising disposable income, like Austin and Nashville, are prime bets. I’d also love to see a AAA team in Havana to try to seed that market for a long-term MLB team there.
Kevin: Why do short striders blow out?
Klaw: Stress on the shoulder and/or elbow, usually the shoulder, from the abrupt release. Better for everything – health, velocity, movement, deception – to finish out front.
James: You mentioned you went out to eat with a vegen in Nashville. Have you ever thought that eating animals is weird…?
Klaw: No, usually I’m too busy enjoying them.
Chris: Surprised BOS gave up on Cecchini? Thought that was a nice add by Stearns.
Klaw: Agree. One of the better stealth moves of the offseason. No cost, fills a short-term organizational hole.
DO: RE: my question about opt outs. Obviously the other factor is that any pitcher of a certain age and performance level will always require this option in order to sign (cost of doing business with high priced FA), but taken on it’s merits, the deal always favors the player unless something unforeseen happens. If Price opts out, it’s because he is definitely worth more on the open market and will (likely) leave for that money. Now, that’s not the worst thing in the world for the team, but it also means that they are losing value on the back end of the deal.
Klaw: They’re not “losing value” on the back end because they’re not paying for it – and it’s not like they paid ahead for it in the early years. If the player opts out, the team pays nothing and gets nothing. The idea behind the opt-out being a secret gain for the team is that the player may opt out and then play worse for the new team, producing a negative ROI while the old team saves that money.
Jack: what do you think of Kaprielian – will he move quickly?
Klaw: I think so. He’s that kind of pitcher.
Tracy: If the NFL and ESPN go to a digital platform, cable might disappear. Would MLB teams that are budgeting based on huge TV contracts be screwed?
Klaw: Those contracts are guaranteed, I think, so their short-term pictures will be fine. If you’re saying the cable channels go out of business, well, as someone who hasn’t used a terrestrial, legacy cable provider for any service in 16 years, I won’t be attending their funerals.
James: Have you ever been noticed out in public in a non baseball setting? Like the grocery store or a restaurant or something
Klaw: Yes. One of you spotted me walking around Manhattan on Tuesday. My agent got a laugh out of that.
Captain Renault: Shocked that the Pharma Bro might be ethically challenged?
Klaw: Terribly. Have to think regulators were looking for any way to get him after that price-gouging stunt.
Or: Kyler Murray’s considering leaving Texas A&M. Considering he hasn’t played college baseball, could he declare for the upcoming draft? Or would his enrollment at A&M disqualify him for the next two years?
Klaw: If he goes to a juco, then yes, he’ll be draft-eligible in June.
Kevin: Follow up re short striders: what you say makes sense, but I’m wondering if there are studies that have been done on these kinds of things and if so are they accessible to the public?
Klaw: Yes, there are studies on this. I have no idea if they’re accessible to the public.
JG: Take a stab at the figures of Harper’s next contract…
Klaw: He’s at least a $40 million AAV guy in this environment. Even that might not be enough.
Bret: No other info than this, but Heyman reports the Dodgers and Rays are talking about a Jake Odorizzi trade. Does Odorizzi seem like a good candidate to improve or decline in the near future, or does he seem to be what he is, a safe #3 starter type?
Klaw: I think that’s about what he is. Good fit for LAD, actually. But by 2017 is he going to be significantly better than someone like Jose Deleon, who’s already in the system?
Gordon: Re: opt-outs being good for the team: if Price opts out at the first opportunity, the Sox will have signed him for 3/$90ish. He never would have taken that deal if offered, and the Sox wouldn’t sign him to the back half of that contract as a 33-year-old. What am I missing about how this is good for the Sox?
Klaw: I agree. The argument is that he might be terrible right away and then they’re stuck, but they’d be stuck anyway without the opt-out. I should interject here that pricing options (black-scholes stuff) is outside of any experience I have, and I am probably even going too far offering an opinion like this given that fact.
Nowhere to Ace?: Francis Martes came out of nowhere, as did Snell for that matter. Do you have confidence that these guys can be frontline starters, not just on their respective teams but on competitive teams?
Klaw: I had Snell on various lists since his junior year of HS. He just developed a bit late, but it’s probably #2 stuff. Martes had huge stuff even when he was traded but I think the Astros may have been the only group to see him and realize how advanced he was as a pitcher. I have notes on him from last winter but didn’t even include him in my Houston writeup because he seemed like one of many far-away high-upside Latin American arms there.
Bob: Did your departure from Toronto relate to drafting Troy Tulowitzki?
Klaw: No, it related to my wife and I drafting a daughter, and my general unhappiness with the job.
James: Will you please bring back podcast this next year?
Klaw: I am working on this. It’s one of two major work-related projects for 2016.
Thad: Is Victor Robles just another hyped toolsy guy or is there something to all the chatter about him?
Klaw: Legit. Maybe more leadoff type because it’s probably not big power but exciting tools across the board besides that.
Jack: Is there any chance that Labourt can start in the big leagues?
Klaw: Zero.
G-funk: I want to get my parents interested in some more involved boardgames. Any suggestions for beginners?
Klaw: Carcassonne and Ticket to Ride are two good gateway games that make sense to newbies but offer hints of the world of games beyond Monopoly. Splendor probably does too. They’re all high on my ranking of my top 80 boardgames of all time.
Adam: Gordon, you’re only looking at one outcome and that’s the best case scenario. What happens if Price goes “full Sabathia”?
Klaw: But if he does, the Sox are screwed with or without the opt-out, right?
Josie: Raimel Tapia’s batting stance will not fly in the big leagues, will it? Seems a little gimmicky.
Klaw: I want to say no, but I said that about Pedroia back in the day (swing, not stance, but it’s the same general thing), and how’d that work out for me?
JJ: Does Trey Ball take a step forward in his development this year?
Klaw: I haven’t given up on him. He’s a good athlete who was very raw when drafted. People who call him a bust now are ignoring the history of guys like Snell, pitchers who scuffle for a few years as they mature physically and emotionally.
Jeff: The argument I see is that if a player opts out, it’s because they believe they are worth more to some other team through free agency. If that’s the case, then the team losing the player is losing an underpriced asset that could have been kept below market rate or traded for something else of value. Good for the player, bad for the team.
Klaw: But he couldn’t have been kept below market rate, right? If he could have, he would have signed. And the team can certainly trade him before he opts out. In the meantime, they’re gaining the surplus value generated by his performance above his cost and can apply that to other players on the current roster.
Jack: Ok, so ‘no’ on Labourt – is Keury Mella in that same category?
Klaw: Has a chance. Odds are Mella is a reliever but I won’t say no on starter.
Danny: If you wanted to donate some board games to a homeless shelter during the holidays, would you go with the old fashioned standbys or are there more current games that would be a good choice?
Klaw: To buy and donate? Just pick ones that are simple to learn, like the ones I suggested above. I would not donate games with lengthy rules that require lots of prep time or repeated plays to enjoy, since I assume the people playing them will be changing frequently over time and they might only play these games once or twice. It’s a wonderful idea, BTW.
Paul: Are you as excited as I am about Nick Williams in Citizens Bank park?
Klaw: Apparently not. Has CBP been raised to a mile above sea level? I don’t think so because then I could probably see it from my house.
Dave: Reds’ fan here – I’m pretty angry about the Frazier trade. Part of me worries that they panicked when the Chapman trade fell through, and wanted to get Peraza at all costs. The only justification I’ve read is that the Reds brass “loves” Peraza — but it seems to me that if the Braves and Dodgers are both willing to dump him (the Dodgers must think they got better value in the propects they got than what they gave up) shouldn’t that be a warning to the Reds that, perhaps, YOU are the team that is mis-evaluating the trade?
Klaw: Yeah, I think the Reds’ FO overvalued Peraza and probably the other two guys as well. Don’t see why they couldn’t have gotten a better prospect from the Dodgers here.
Chris: Is there a chance Tyler Austin could be the 25th man on the Yanks, as 5th OF and backing up 3B and 1B?
Klaw: No, and they took him off the 40-man because he hasn’t hit at all since the wrist injuries.
Ted: The Avi Garcia experiment should be considered over, correct?
Klaw: I was never a big fan – I saw a future fourth OF, which meant I hated the Tigers if I remember correctly – but he’s 24 and I don’t think they should just discard him unless someone clearly better comes along. I think he has more power than he’s shown but his OBPs will probably always be terrible.
TJ: You left Toronto because your wife and you drafted a daughter? What’s her scouting report on the 20-80 scale?
Klaw: She’s an 80 daughter except when it comes to doing her homework.
That Guy: Keith, I ask this of you as a guy who’s been to many more MiLB parks than me. I sort of thought everything would be more minor at them — including concession prices. That has proved not to be the case, at least in my experience. Is my sample size too small or is this just the way it is?
Klaw: I almost never get food at minor league parks and of course I don’t drink there, so I don’t know. Maybe their pricing model is to charge a pittance for admission and make up for it with higher margins on food and beverage?
R: Any chance Glasnow gets a call up this year?
Klaw: I think it’s a lock if he’s not hurt.
Steve: In your opinion, was part of Theo’s game plan this offseason to improve specifically at the expense of the Cardinals, or do you think that is just how it worked out?
Klaw: I think it was all just very convenient. I doubt he wanted to give St. Louis two supplemental draft picks.
James: Ever eat fast food?
Klaw: Extremely rarely and it’s not a pleasant experience when i do. I’ve had fast food once in the last two months – Panda Express, because there was nothing else around I could stomach – and it was not good.
chris: Is Goeddel a, say, Piscotty-type player? What do you expect we see from him?
Klaw: I don’t see any similarities there. I think Goeddel can stick as a fourth outfielder. And if not, well, his dad’s a billionaire and one of the smartest men in the world so I’m sure Tyler will be OK.
Grant: Twins announced they are adding netting above the dugouts next year. Good call?
Klaw: I’m completely in favor of this.
Bob: I was due to give a paper at a conference in Rome; they’ve since asked me to present a poster instead. Should I be miffed, or . . . is going to Rome more important?
Klaw: Dude, you’re going to Rome. For a trip there I’d present a roll of toilet paper.
Klaw: And that’s all for this week’s chat – thank you all as always for all of your questions. I may try to sneak in a chat before Christmas, so please stay tuned to my Twitter account and Facebook page for any announcements. Thanks for reading!