Klawchat 12/11/15.

Klaw: Come for the wuggas, but stay for the jiggy-juggas. Klawchat.

Jean Lazure: Hi Keith – you said this morning in your appreciation of Ricardo Rodriguez that he has “more skills than tools”. Is a tool innate and a skill learned? Was just wondering…thanks.
Klaw: That’s a good quick and dirty summary. Tools are largely physical – run, power, throw – but can incorporate the mechanical too. Skills represent refinement, and are about what happens during games more than tools, which express raw abilities.

Jack: Thoughts on Oaklands offseason so far? Personally not a huge fan of relief expenditures or selling so low on Lawrie.
Klaw: A bit confused. I’ve never believed in buying relievers, especially when your budget is low. I don’t know if they sold low on Lawrie so much as they got rid of a guy whose character flaws outweigh his mediocre production.

Bob: Overall thoughts on the Chapman situation ??
Klaw: If he did what his girlfriend accused him of doing, I’d be fine with never seeing him in an MLB uniform again.

Danny: Orioles seem lost at sea again. Have to be early leaders for worst offseason direction so far.
Klaw: I’m really not a fan of judging any team’s offseason when they haven’t done much yet. There’s a lot of time left and a lot of players without teams.

Rauzer17: Which is worse, the Opryland Hotel or downtown Detroit?
Klaw: Well you’re not likely to get shot at the Opryland, but you might die of starvation wandering its halls.

Nelson: Will we be getting a Nashville dining review?
Klaw: Of course, although I only went to three new places. Two Ten Jack was the big group dinner and an enormous hit. I love everything about that place.

LarryA: Do you think Henson is ready to take over yet in Pit after the Walker trade?
Klaw: I assume the infield includes Harrison and Kang at 2b and 3b.

Mmmmmmm: Could Javier Baez really play CF?
Klaw: I doubt it.

Jimbo: Can you give Braves fans an idea of just how great it is to have picked up Dansby Swanson?
Klaw: It’s “having a major league stadium on public transit” great.

Rob: How did Dave Stewart get a GM job?
Klaw: His buddy hired him. That’s the number one way to get a GM or manager job in baseball right now – make sure you have a friend doing the hiring.

Jérôme Champagne: Any recommendations for two player entry level board games? I saw you mention 7 Wonders Dual but that seems a bit intimidating for someone new to board games.
Klaw: Jaipur. If you go to my top 80 boardgames (http://klaw.me/1iWV10k) there’s a ranking of two-player games at the bottom.

Barry: What do you think about Mark Shapiro’s response to the Jays’ limited activity since signing Happ? Is a front office’s obligation to ‘run a successful business’ or is it to win? Winning can make a business successful, but doesn’t it work the other way only rarely?
Klaw: Winning generally leads to financial success in baseball. Losing sometimes does, especially when the league is subsidizing you (coughMarlinscough), but winning is a much better formula.

Bobby: Small trade, I know, but any thoughts on the SP’s the Yanks got back in the J Wilson deal? Also, re “Too Many Cooks,” I am not a big believer in changing original text, but I do agree that the repeated use of that word diminish the ability to enjoy the text. In this case, I would probably advocate making a change and hoping a good forward or note on the topic fosters interesting discussion. Thanks, as always…
Klaw: I like Cessa as a depth guy, liked him for Detroit in the Cespedes deal but think Wilson provides now value and fits their roster better. Not sure why the Yanks have become cost-conscious all of a sudden.

Corey: Are you going to do an espn writeup for the bethancourt trade or can you comment here?
Klaw: Already posted about a half hour ago. Here it is.

Marshall: Dusty Baker sure is off to a “great” start as manager for the Nats with his supportive comments toward Chapman. The more Baker talks the more he sounds like a guy stuck in a bygone era.
Klaw: What he’s saying isn’t just insensitive, but indicative of someone who doesn’t think before he speaks. That should concern the Nats’ FO and ownership most of all.

Silv: Any idea as to the return from the Dodger side in the Chapman deal? Leaving aside his alleged actions, abhorrent as they may be, I’m having a hard time understanding why LA would deal the rumored two+ of their top ten prospects for a 65 inning reliever, regardless of how hard he throws.
Klaw: No idea, and while I know someone said it was “two significant prospects” on air the other night, I don’t even know if THAT was true. The one way I could justify it for LAD would be if they intended to use Chapman for more like 100 innings in relief. He could be a 4 WAR reliever, higher by WPA if the manager used him in high-leverage situations.

Josh: What are your thoughts on Jabari Blash (other than the outstanding name)?
Klaw: Always thought he was a AAA or 4A slugger type. Toolsy but not very disciplined. This was his third straight year with AA time and second in the PCL.

Jason: Tell us about Dansby Swanson, can he really be a 15/25 guy and does he go back to second base with the Braves having Albies at SS?
Klaw: No, I think he’s the one who pushes Albies, whose arm is a little light for short, to second. I don’t know what the 15/25 refers to.

Josh: Are the Padres crazy for having four Rule 5 guys on the roster, or is it a decent gamble that one may pay off for a relatively small investment?
Klaw: Doubt they keep more than two. Really no disincentive to do what they’re doing – $25K a pop for extended tryouts in March.

Tom: Much to make about LAA trading Gott for Escobar?
Klaw: Not really. Should ensure Rendon goes back to 3b where he belongs.

Silv: Does Utley actually have anything left, or are the Dodgers basically paying him 7mm for #grit. Friedman wouldn’t be so foolish as to block Peraza, right?
Klaw: Don’t think he has much left but I wouldn’t say he’s done. Half a year in AAA wouldn’t kill Peraza – in fact, I’d move him back to short and see if he can still do it.

Bruce: Do you get more or less questions now than over at ESPN?
Klaw: Fewer in total, but no fewer quality questions.

Josh: If you are the Padres, do you try to stretch out Pomeranz in the spring, or leave him in the pen?
Klaw: Bullpen. Never has had a good enough changeup to get RHB out.

Josh: Rosenthal, Heyman, and others are reporting Heyward to the Cubs. On paper, are the Cubs the best team in baseball right now?
Klaw: I think so. But I wonder if this opens them up to trade Soler. Heyward can handle CF but I doubt he’s plus there. We know he’s ridiculously good in RF.

M. Pemulis (Enfield): How has the ratio of trolls to real questions changed since the chats moved over to here?
Klaw: Most trolls are gone. Also don’t get the people who complain that I answer non-baseball questions.

Chris: How long until Boras calls up Ted Lerner to give Davis a monster contract since they missed out on Heyward?
Klaw: You act like that hasn’t already happened in the last ten minutes.

Mar: You’ve mentioned before fans don’t understand basic economics and that’s why they disapprove of player salaries. I’m skeptical economics truly drives salaries. Do teams know the relation between wins (or even star power) and revenues?
Klaw: Hell yes they do.

Skip: What are your thoughts on Maeda? Where should he slot into a rotation?
Klaw: Fourth starter. Very worried about durability. Smaller frame guy who’s had some issues getting through a full season healthy.

Zach: Given your love of literature and coming from a front office background, was it natural for you to begin writing? Is the writing process still frustrating for you at times, or did you fall into it pretty naturally?
Klaw: I’ve always been a natural writer (in the sense that I don’t find it difficult or frustrating, not that I’m some innate Hemingway). I’m more comfortable expressing myself in writing than verbally, although I’ve had to get better at the latter.

Chris: Bethancourt and Alfaro seem similar based on write up on bethancourt, is that the case?
Klaw: Yes. Alfaro’s a better hitter though.

Adam: Hi Keith–I was curious if you’ve ever tried cooking sous vide-style at home?
Klaw: I have not. Devices were pretty expensive until the last year or so.

Ben: Confirmed that Cubs got Heyward. You think that’s a better use of resources than grabbing a CF and another SP?
Klaw: Not sure they need another SP; Hammel is the 5, and they have Warren and Wood in the pen as long options, which could also make Hendricks a short starter. CF options this winter weren’t great. All depends on the cost but I don’t think this is a poor use of resources. Also bear in mind that next winter’s free agent class is a dumpster fire.

Marshall: Until proven otherwise do the Twins just need to treat Alex Meyer as reliever rather than a starter?
Klaw: Yes. Needs to show he can throw enough strikes first, then to get some left-handed hitters out.

Boogie: It’s being reported that the Cubs “won the Heyward sweepstakes”. How good does this make them? Adding Zobrist/Heyward is an amazing offseason…
Klaw: I love that phrasing – like Casey Close just showed up at the door, but instead of carrying a giant check, he was asking for one.

Joshua: With it looking like the Nats (hopefully) will have Turner starting as their SS, what can you tell me about Difo. Is he a legitimate starting threat at 2B this year, or should I still be expecting to see Espinosa out there? Thanks, Keith.
Klaw: I don’t think he’s ready now, but he could be their starting 2b in 2017. Pretty toolsy kid who put everything together a little late, like Willson Contreras with the Cubs.

Chad: Where does that leave the Cards? without Lynn, an OF Grichuk and Piscotty and Adams at first.. that’s not exactly encouraging? Do they sign a different OF?
Klaw: I don’t know their plans – I’m sure they’re scrambling a little bit right now – but I think they’d be better served to see if there’s a hitter available in trade, and spending their available cash on one of the many good SP out there. Leake and Kazmir come to mind immediately.

Archie: Higher ceiling Gleyber Torres or Ozhaino Albies?
Klaw: Torres. Better fielder and I think more chance to hit for power. Albies is the safer bet to hit.

Chris: Nola Hellickson Oberholtzer Velazquez Eickhoff?
Klaw: Is this some sort of curse?

Bruce: Will you ever write a novel?
Klaw: I would love to do so. There are one or two projects I need to complete (or start and complete) first.

Ray: Thoughts on Derek Fisher- can he be a low average, high OBP, 20+ HR, 20+ SB hitter in Philly or do we need to see how he performs in AA?
Klaw: I’m a bit down on him after that first year in pro ball and a very bad look in the AFL after I saw him so much better in college. Lot of holes in his game for someone whose tools are so damn good.

Ed: Have you been to Blais’ crack shack yet? Very good fried chicken, sides aren’t the best.
Klaw: No, but I’ll probably get there in March. I think Hedges has value because there is always more demand for catching than supply, but yeah, the way they mishandled him in 2015 didn’t help.

Anonymous: Just started working at Rice University—any players of note to watch there in 2016-2017?
Klaw: Duplantier, if he’s not hurt, which he has been, which I know you’ll find terribly surprising for a Rice pitcher.

TJ: Two HOF write-in voters for Pete Rose so far…
Klaw: An utterly pointless gesture, regardless of his merits as a player.

Brandon in DC: In discussing the Jason Hayward free agency with a friend of mine, he said he was dubious of Heyward’s value because he believes WAR overweights defensive metrics. I know the calculation and components of the various forms of WAR have been often debated, but what is your current view about the weight given to defense, and whether you think WAR would properly measure Heyward’s value? Thanks!
Klaw: I think defensive metrics, especially the proprietary ones that teams use, are more accurate than critics understand, even if they lack the precision that offensive measures provide. The question is seldom “how much was he worth” but “how much will he be worth?” To answer the latter, you need to try to impute the player’s true talent level from his performance. That is less about precision in a single period of time and more about directional accuracy over a larger sample.

Jesse: Hi Keith, thank you for your advocacy for mental health and science issues. I’m interested in your thoughts on GMOs – I am not against the development of GMOs on principle as many people are, but do have a fear that the biotech industry is writing the rules and don’t trust individual corporations to regulate themselves. Despite GMOs being generally safe and effective, I can’t get over the fear of an environmental catastrophe is something is developed without adequate oversight. You seem comfortable with the use of GMOs, how do you reconcile this concern?
Klaw: Comfortable but concerned would be a good way to put it. Evolution has been genetically modifying organisms for millions of years, yet only one has become dangerous enough to wipe out thousands of other species and take over the planet: Us.

Jack K: What about Jason Heyward’s swing are scouts concerned about? Do you see a higher offensive ceiling for him?
Klaw: The Cards made some tweaks last year that helped him. He starts high and often comes a bit down towards the ball, which produces a lot of groundballs, something he didn’t do as much as a minor leaguer. He’s big enough and has the lower body strength to hit for more power. I think there’s a chance he does that now.

Alison: Odds that the draft picks the Cards get from the Cubs signings turn out to be HOF’s.
Klaw: I’m going to say under 1%. Had to think for a second about it when you said “picks” but you’re right (and I was wrong!).

Jack: What are your thoughts on Renato Nunez? I’ve read conflicting reports about his ability to stick at third, and it doesn’t seem his bat will carry playing first.
Klaw: That’s about right. I don’t know if he stays at third, and he probably won’t, but I’d give him every chance to do so.

Brando: Think that the BBWAA HOF voters hold it against Griffey for being a prick during his career? I bet it cost him some votes
Klaw: Maybe a couple but it won’t matter in the end. He’ll get 95% or more. And yeah, he was not a good guy, especially not as a teammate (so I hear – this is terribly secondhand, so feel free to dismiss it), but he skates on that while Bonds gets murdered for it.

Matt: With Greinke Miller Corbin leading Dbacks rotation this makes them the favorite for the NL west correct?
Klaw: Ehhhhhh i’m not so sure about that. As I said above, there’s a lot of offseason left to be played. They may think Corbin’s ready to make 32-33 starts, but in his first full year back from TJ that’s very foolhardy. They were also well behind LAD/SF on paper coming into the winter; they’re slightly ahead now, but the other two clubs have barely made any moves while the Dbacks are probably done. AZ still needs something in the middle infield, though; Ahmed is terrible and Owings isn’t much better.

Jugdish: I know you are a Top Chef fan. Do you liked Chopped and have you ever tried to be a contestant?
Klaw: No, and no – aren’t those contestants actual chefs?

Adam: What should the Braves do with all of these OF’s? Wouldnt the best move be to play Olivera at 3rd and see if he at least improves until they can clear the OF traffic?
Klaw: He was pretty awful at 3b and 2b, and he’s not a prospect – he’s old enough that hoping for improvement is wishful thinking.

Archie: Do you see Drury opening the season as the Dbacks 2B if they don’t trade for Phillips?
Klaw: If he shows his glove is good enough. He was not good last spring when I saw him in AZ.

Alison: Alison 1, Klaw 0. It was a tongue in cheek question because no matter who they lose, things tend to work out for the Cards. And not work out for my Cubs.
Klaw: you forgot to say #cardsdevilmagic.

Horacio: Hi Keith, I was introduced into Chvrches by one of your previous ‘best of’ lists and now I love them. I attended a concert a couple of weeks ago here in London and it was superb. I just wanted to thank you for that!
Klaw: They’re so good – and good live, which I didn’t expect because Mayberry has something of a “little” voice.

Greyson: Considering Christian Bethancourt’s ridiculous arm (I still remember his snap throw at the 2012 futures game) and problems receiving, could he be converted to a pitcher? Or is it too late?
Klaw: A scout I know well suggested that maybe four years ago to me, and I think the idea still has merit. He’d have to be mid-90s.

Jeff: Keith, is John Hart just smarter than everyone else in the room or does he have some naked photos of them with their mistresses? I don’t understand how he keep getting these teams to make trades like the Shelby Miller for Dansby Swanson and others.
Klaw: Atlanta (I think Coppolella is the one making the calls rather than Hart) has done an excellent job of taking advantage of a GM with no effective front office experience and what appears to be a thoroughly outdated view of the game.

James: The Royals are saying they thing Bubba Starling will become a starting OF in the future, but I don’t see it. What are you thoughts?
Klaw: Too optimistic for me.

Chris: JP Crawford go full time in 2017 at this rate?
Klaw: I think by July 1st he’s the shortstop in Philly, barring injury or cholera or something.

Pat: To your knowledge, do or have the Blue Jays used financial derivatives to hedge exchange rate risk, particularly is much of their revenue is C$ but their expenses are US$ (player salaries)?
Klaw: Yes, they have for at least 15 years. I think it’s even in Rogers’ annual report.

Josh: What are your thoughts on AJ Preller? Seems to me he cleared out some prospects he wasn’t high on last year for a chance at a run, but after it didn’t work he is flipping them for prospects he does like.
Klaw: That’s a fair characterization, and I’m pretty good with that overall, although I thought all last year that failing to address CF or SS or the lack of RHB in the lineup were mistakes.

Joshua: Curiosity questions: I know (or maybe presume I know) that you are not a big Pearl Jam fan. I have read that you really like(d) Mother Love Bone. Just curious as to why. Thanks.
Klaw: Very different sounds IMO. Pearl Jam derives more from classic blues-rock and arena rock. MLB (!) were more influenced by psychedelia, and Andrew Wood’s lyrics were insanely great.

Dan: According to Alex Pavlovic, Giants might be considering Christian Arroyo in LF…do you see this as a legitimate possibility?
Klaw: Silly. No reason he can’t play 2b. I know Panik is there now, but a) I think Arroyo might end up a better player and b) something totally unexpected could change Panik’s career arc too.

Jesse: What is your gut on Dansby Swanson and his upside
Klaw: At least an above-average everyday shortstop who may make a couple of All-Star teams in his career. And I think he could be ready at some point in 2016 if Atlanta allows him to move quickly – start him in high-A, move to AA if he wrecks the league like I expect.

Mark: Are certain tools available throughout the draft? For example, can you find an 80 runner in the 40th round? How about an 80 fastball guy in the 30th round? How about 80 power, 80 defense?
Klaw: Anything after the 10th round is no longer about talent but about signability now. You can definitely find 80 runners who can’t do anything else into the 8th-10th round range. I know of potential 80 defenders (future 60 or 70, project to 80) who’ve gone in the 6th or 7th. Those are guys who have massive deficiencies somewhere else – an 80 defender in center with a 30 hit tool isn’t flying off the board.

Jeff: When will we get your review of the Top Chef episode from last night? I thought it was a pretty interesting episode. I’ve been to the Sanford Winery and not only is it a beautiful property, but the wines are very good.
Klaw: I haven’t watched it yet – my sister-in-law and niece were here this morning and I wanted to spend time with them and also not expose the baby to that sort of language.

Corey: If somehow Moncada, Devers and Benintendi all arrive roughly at the same time, say ’18, where do you play them and where is Mookie in that alignment ?
Klaw: Moncada 2b, Devers 3b, Benintendi cf/rf, Betts cf/wherever. He can play a lot of places. I presume Bogaerts at ss still.

Silv: No question, just a comment. Good golly, the Cubs are LOADED.
Klaw: Yes. They have good players, too.

James: Michael Gettys or Monte Harrison?
Klaw: Harrison has more chance to hit. Gettys has crazy tools but has never hit at all and his swing has always had problems.

James: After a club loses its first draft pick, does it matter how many more it loses. For the Cubs, they have lost a first round and either a sandwich pick or a second rounder, do they care if they lose the next pick?
Klaw: Nope. I would never let a second-round pick stop me from signing a premium free agent. First-round yes, second-round … I guess I’ll say almost never.

Greg: Does Yordano Ventura ever become a top 20 pitcher or have we seen his best?
Klaw: I don’t think we’ve seen his best, but he’s got to be one of the biggest blowout risks of any MLB starter.

Lenny: Are you receptive to questions from obvious pseudonyms or “celebrity imposters” as long as the questions are legit/respectful? Or do you prefer answering questions from people who are apparently using their real names? Just curious for future reference.
Klaw: Doesn’t matter. I don’t usually look at the names at all, just the questions. As long as you’re civil, I’ll take any question, even ones that criticize me or call me out for my stupidity.

Chris: Do you watch video of players that you’ve correctly scouted to keep your eye trained for what to look for, or any similar practice?
Klaw: Much better use of time to revisit guys I got wrong. Although I don’t have enough time to do that much.

James: I was diagnosed with bipolar disorder last April and I hear that things like meditation will help me immensely. Any other reccomendation Keith? Thanks!
Klaw: EMMET: Exercise, Meditation, Medication, Eating better, Therapy. Bipolar is serious bidness, much more so than my anxiety, so definitely work with your doctor on finding meds that help.

Greg: Keith, where did you learn to scout from? Did you go to scout school?
Klaw: From colleagues with Toronto and scout friends over the years. I did not go to scout school. Scout school does not teach you to be a scout. Plenty of people brag about going to scout school and couldn’t tell a player from a potted plant.

Chris: Have there been any recent misses that made you wonder what you were looking at or caused you to look again?
Klaw: I write about 5-6 of them or more every September on ESPN.com. Missing on Goldschmidt has made me look at Rhys Hoskins differently, to give you one recent example.

Rob: Does the Bethancourt trade have any implications for Derek Norris? What’s your view on him? Still improving? Is what he is? Other?
Klaw: Norris can hit and isn’t a very good catcher. Either he goes to 1b or gets traded. I don’t think he’s going to last as a catcher in this new, defense-conscious environment.

Andrew: Your thoughts on Mizzou pitcher Tanner Houck or too early to speculate for a 2017 guy?
Klaw: He’s got first-round possibilities but I don’t like getting that far ahead unless it’s a clear top-of-the-draft guy.

Marshall: If the Marlins are a in “rebuilding phase” (seemingly on an endless loop) and receptive to trading Jose Fernandez, wouldn’t now be the perfect time to see what the market is for Dee Gordon?
Klaw: I don’t think their ownership allows the front office to stick to a single coherent strategy. They have smart people there, but Loria and Samwise there can’t stop interfering.

Adam: Does Mississippi State have any prospects this year?
Klaw: Dakota Hudson, who I think is supposed to be healthy in the spring.

JD: The Braves are offering some kind of “tracking stock” where you can essentially invest in the team without being an actual investor. Huh?
Klaw: I really thought those fell out of favor ten years ago. They were a bad idea then and are no better now.

Corey: Corollary to the Moncada, Devers, et al question – what do the Sox do with Pedroia then ? Obvious answer is a trade but that’s complicated given who we’re talking about. Put him in the Holt super UT role? 1B ?
Klaw: Pedroia is 32, may be starting to break down, and is clearly not the hitter he was two or three years ago. If he’s not your best 2b, you sit him.

Joshua: What are your thoughts on Tanner Roark? With the Nats losing both Zimmermann and Fister, he seems to be a logical choice for their rotation. However, if past indications tell me anything about this year, the Nats may not be sold on him. What are your thoughts? Thanks.
Klaw: I think he’s a back-end starter for almost any team in baseball. If the Nats don’t think that and aren’t planning to use him as an Adam Warren-type swing man, they should trade him because I’m pretty sure they could get something they value in return.

Marshall: If David Samson is Samwise, does that make Loria Frodo or Gollum?
Klaw: I thought it was obvious. He’s Sauron. And that’s all for this week’s chat! Thanks for joining me. I’ll be back next week, most likely on Thursday, and then we’ll play it by ear the week of Christmas. Look for something on Heyward later today after we know his contract details. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions!