Klawchat 9/17/15.

Klaw: Flying in the face of fashion … it’s Klawchat.

Nate: Does Jorge Lopez make your top 100? If so, what range would you slot him?
Klaw: I don’t know if he’s a top 100 guy – I won’t really sit down to work on that until December – although I do like him for what he is, an average FB/good CB guy who can really pitch and has a good delivery.

Jeff: Is Albert Almora going to be good enough offensively to be a big league regular? He finished strong at AA but I would think his glove can only carry him so far.
Klaw: If he doesn’t walk or hit for power, he’ll have to hit .290-.300 on a regular basis to be a quality everyday player. AJ Pollock did something along these lines, but he could also really run, and I think he’s always had better plate discipline than Almora.

Willy: What changed with Jake Thompson since the trade to make him perform so much better with Reading?
Klaw: I don’t know if anything changed, but I’m going to see him tonight at Bowie in their playoff game, which will be fairly loaded with prospects (him, Nick Williams, JP Crawford, Andrew Knapp, Chance Sisco, Trey Mancini). If any of you decide to come to the game, please swing by and say hi.

Jon V: Keith – are you a bit surprised at Lindor’s offensive numbers for his first half year in the big leagues?
Klaw: No, not really. He could always hit and his approach has been very advanced since he was in high school. I had some doubts about him his senior year, but in hindsight I think I was channeling industry fatigue from seeing him so much. He may actually have been *over*scouted.

Tim: DJ Davis…still a prospect?
Klaw: Still not a player. (I never liked that pick. Second or third round, sure, but first, way too risky a profile.)

Cody Rhoads: I liked your suggestion of Ray Montgomery for Phillies GM. Chaim Bloom is interviewing in Milwaukee today, is he another option for Philadelphia?
Klaw: I haven’t heard any specific names in Philly at all. Jayson Stark said last Thursday that MacPhail hadn’t made any calls yet on that spot.

Marcus: Do you think the Angels took away the running game away from Trout or was it his own decision?
Klaw: More the former. Supposedly it bothers Pujols to have Trout running in front of him.

Ben: Is there any chance we’ll get to see a sneak peek of Orlando Arcia in Milwaukee once Biloxi’s playoffs have concluded?
Klaw: He’s not on the 40-man now, so unless he has to go on this winter to protect him from the rule 5 (I don’t know offhand), I would say no.

Mike: Besides Tyler Kolek and Josh Naylor, is there anyone we can actually get excited about in Miami’s system?
Klaw: I’m not sure you should get that excited about those guys either.

JR, Connecticut: Hi Keith, hope you got to see some of the abhorrent nonsense on vaccines during thaat clown show of a debate last night. Do you see the Mets resigning Cespedes in the offseason and if so what would you think a fair contract would be?
Klaw: I didn’t watch the debate, because a room full of science deniers like that isn’t reallly the place for me. I’m not a “single-issue” voter, but I will say that if you deny the basic science on vaccines, evolution, or climate change, I can’t vote for you. Accepting facts is sort of a necessary condition. I don’t think they’ll re-sign him – I think he’ll get wildly overpaid by the market relative to his projected output, probably well north of $20MM/year.

Wally: What would you do this offseason if you were Nats GM – plug in behind the departing FAs, or even more dramatic reconstruction? Let’s assume the manager goes (might not be a slam dunk for them, but is for most fans)
Klaw: Turner to SS, AJ Cole and Tanner Roark to the rotation, Giolito to AAA, Reynaldo Lopez to the major-league bullpen. The tough one is CF: Michael Taylor’s glove is exceptional, but can you live with a year or two of offensive struggles? I can, but ownership might disagree.

C Hoffman: Can I play with madness?
Klaw: There’s no vision there at all.

John Houser: The Rangers have been aggressive with Brinson and Mazara. Is there room for both of them in Arlington next year? I am thinking Brinson could use a full AAA season.
Klaw: Brinson’s glove is ready but I agree with you at least to the extent that Brinson should start in AAA with a goal of maybe 200 or so AB. Mazara seems more ready, but where does he play? Can they dump Choo’s contract on someone? He’s an awfully expensive platoon player, and since they’re both LHB you can’t even work them both in.

Tally Dave: Keith, Jake Arrieta has a 2nd half ERA of 0.90, which if holds up would be the lowest in MLB history…just crazy about his dominance over an extended period…to me it’s a no-doubter but what would be your order between Arrieta, Kershaw, Greinke?
Klaw: Kershaw, Greinke, Arrieta, although if you want to flip the first two I’m fine with that. I don’t see why the second-half ERA should count more than the first (in fact, it should count less as the second half is usually shorter).

Jonathan: As a Red Sox fan do I have a right to be concerned that Dombrowski is going clean out the farm AND bring Frank Wren in as GM?
Klaw: You absolutely have that right, at least until proven otherwise.

Dave: Bryan Mitchell’s 67 ERA+ … SSS slump, not that good, or not ready?
Klaw: Not that good.

Jeff: Travis d’Arnaud looks like a superstar. Is this his ceiling if he can ever stay healthy?
Klaw: I think so. He was my #7 or #8 prospect one year with the Mets, before the injuries started. I’m not sure he will ever be healthy enough to catch 130 games in a season, but I hope I’m wrong.

MSW: So it seems like ESPN isn’t killing chats after all? Schoenfeld and Karabell have held their normal chats this week. Just wondering what’s going on with them in general.
Klaw: I have no idea. Klawchats are here now, and only here.

Larry Dodger: Does Urias hit majors in 2016? It seems like Dodgers have limited his innings so much it does not seem like he goes over 125 IP next year.
Klaw: He also was horrible in a brief AAA stint. Why push him? He should come up when he’s ready to contribute in some role, not when the fans (or the owners, who I imagine see dollar signs with him) demand it.

JR, Ct: Hi Keith, noticed only one New Haven pizzeria on your best of list. Whatof the other big hitters (Sally’s/Modern)?
Klaw: Haven’t been. Might try one next week.

Dave: It is clear the Reds think Michael Lorenzen has a lot of potential. It is also pretty clear he is a pretty bad MLB pitcher right now. What does he need to fix, and do you see him doing it?
Klaw: I think and have long thought he’d have to go to the bullpen. Big fastball without enough life, no above average secondary pitch.

Jerome Seinfeld: If a player who pitches in 30-35 games can win the MVP, why not Cespedes?
Klaw: False analogy time! A pitcher has more impact on the outcome of a game he starts (facing 30 or so batters) than a position player does (about 4 plate appearances and a couple of plays in the field).

CJ: Is Aaron Altherr turning into a pretty good player? Or will he be an average regular?
Klaw: Great athlete but probably an extra/bench guy in the long run. Still young enough to surprise, though.

Corey Anderson: If mlb changed roster sizes and had an active roster and inactive roster for a specific game, how many players would you like to see active on game day? How many player should each team carry as inactive?
Klaw: The real question there is how many bench players and relievers – you need 8 (NL) or 9 (AL) hitters and one starting pitcher as a given. Is a 5-man bench and 6-man bullpen sufficient, giving a little more flexibility to managers in September as they cope with tired/sore players?

Bryan: You’ve talked a lot about position on the rubber for Gausman, Should different pitchers start on different spots on the rubber?
Klaw: Yes. Whatever works for them – some guys want to be on their glove side (1b for a RHP) so they’re more online to the plate; some guys (e.g., Arrieta) want to be on their arm side to get that cross-body deception.

hankpsu: Keith, did you see the slide by Coghlan that (more than likely) ended Kang’s season? Legit play?
Klaw: No, I was here, but if that ends Kang’s season that sucks.

BM: What is your opinion of Servino now….Still think he will end up as a RP? Thanks
Klaw: Yes, I do. Now that everyone has had a chance to see him a few times, don’t you see the same delivery concerns I did – the lack of use of the lower half, the big arm speed generated entirely from his torso and shoulder?

Erix: Hi Keith! Can you tell me a bit about Toronto RHP Connor Greene? The Jays seem to be quite bullish on him.
Klaw: Saw him in HS against Dominic Smith – Greene was a skinny little guy, 89-90 with some control but all projection. He’s been hitting 97 this year, so good job by the Jays with that pick.

MSW: You’ve always been one of the highest on Gavin Cecchini, and it seems like his bat is coming along. However, he has posted 28 errors at SS. Since I can only scout the stat line, I’d love your opinion on his future. Can he stick at SS? Future utility guy? Thanks Keith!
Klaw: Shortstop. Hands, range, instincts all there. Has the arm strength but had trouble with throws in the first half – very erratic, not Steve Sax bad but not good. That tapered off in the second half – I think he had 21 errors in their first half (about 70% of their season), 7 in the second.

BJInIndiana: What are your thoughts about rehab stints during MiLB playoffs? I’m a Cubs fan, but Soler starting for the Pelicans felt a little off to me.
Klaw: Yeah, I’m not a fan, although with Soler playing about half effort level when I saw the game here on Monday it didn’t matter.

Thomas: More upside Adam Warren or Ivan Nova?
Klaw: You guys know my position on this: hitters shouldn’t get ‘time’ except in extraordinary circumstances.

Chris: would Kevin Maitan even at such a young age come anywhere close to a top 100 list?
Klaw: Absolutely not.

Josh: Have you had a chance to watch Mychal Givens pitch? Future closer?
Klaw: Yes. Sidearm guy, though, and had some trouble with LHB in the minors. Great stuff, but if lefties continue to get to him he won’t be able to close.

Dan: No question, just a thanks. Your chats are fun to read, thanks for finding an alternative way to do them.
Klaw: You’re welcome – thank you all for sticking with me and coming over here to keep them going. The chats would be very boring without readers asking questions.

Jake: Iran Deal. Good or bad.
Klaw: Good. Not perfect, but what treaty ever is?

aj: what was your thought on Zagunis when you saw him in Delaware?
Klaw: Saw several games and he was never in the lineup.

John: How far has Wilson Contreras moved himself up the prospect list this year? Is he getting close to a top 100 guy? Thanks!
Klaw: He’s legit and one of the top catching prospects in the minors right now. Really, if you can catch and throw and hit just a little, you’re a top 100 consideration guy at this point. The scarcity of catchers pushes up the value of the few who can really do it.

Ryan: Kang was just taken out of the game on a way-out-of-the-baseline slide in the Bucs-Cubs game. If we’re addressing the Catch collisions, this has to be addressed at some point right? No idea how Kang is doing yet, but someone could easily tear up a knee ligament on one of these.
Klaw: Did Coghlan go for the player not the base? (I don’t want to pause the chat to go watch – I’ll look after) To me that should be an automatic ejection and suspension. Sliding at the fielder while just sticking a hand out at the base doesn’t clear you. Intent to “take out” is intent to injure. Let’s not be naive here.

C Stone: It seems like all the Orioles SPs have regressed like crazy in the second half, after improving greatly during the second half last year. Bad luck? Bad coaching? Or are they just pitching to their true talent now?
Klaw: I have raised the question or even the criticism of Buck and his coaching staff’s culpability and was told I was nuts or biased or whatever. He’s a good manager overall, but if what he’s doing there isn’t working and in fact is actively hurting the team, then that’s a problem. From pitchers there regressing or failing to develop to Arrieta leaving and making simple mechanical adjustments that turned him into an ace, at some point Buck should have to answer for what’s gone on.

Guesto: Not baseball related but writing/journalism related: thoughts on the major layoffs at NYDN, NOLA Times Picayune? Are we watching the death of journalism?
Klaw: Newspapers have been dying for a long time anyway. I’m more upset about NOLA in effect losing its one newspaper than NYC potentially losing one of three. Plus, all this handwringing over the ‘big names’ at the NYDN … first of all, don’t weep for the big names, weep for the little names who never made that much money to begin with. And, second, has everyone forgotten that Bill Madden was an unrepentant strikebreaker back in 1990-91?

Doug: Can you tell me a bit about Ryan O’Hearn. Lead the Sally in HR before being promoted and still finished 1st. Then had a 125 wRC+ in a tough Wilmington park/league. K’s will be a concern, but seems like a perhaps first division profile role 50 possibly. How’s the defense look?
Klaw: He’s not a regular or close to it, power over hit without much of an approach, 1b only … and I don’t know where you got that silly scouting lingo but it makes no sense to me.

Tom: Any other read-aloud suggestions in addition to Jasper FForde? We really liked Sheila Turnage’s stuff.
Klaw: We’ve done the Harry Potter series and all of the Paddington books as well. She also liked Around the World in 80 Days after its somewhat slow start. Treasure Island didn’t grab her so we ditched that.

Mike: I know you aren’t big in to what veteran presence or clubhouse chemistry can bring to a team. I’ve been reading The Happiness Advantage and it says that the biggest factor in team success (granted they mean corporate world) is how well everyone works together. Thoughts on how that applies to baseball and is there a way to measure it?
Klaw: And other books, including Jonah Lehrer’s now out of print Imagine (pulled because he fabricated a bunch of stuff in another chapter), and studies have shown that conflict in the office produces more creative results. Amazon is a good example of that – that NY Times article arguing it’s a horrible place to work (and in some cases it might be) didn’t consider the effect that this crazy internal competition is what has made the company both innovative and successful.

Scott: What are good projections for Trea Turner? I want to know just how bad the Padres are going to regret that trade.
Klaw: That’s going to be some grade 70 regret for them and grade 80 for the Rays.

Daniel Zaudtke: Can we stop and admire the formation of the next great player in Bryce Harper?
Klaw: Works for me. Everyone take a moment. … okay, moment’s over. Thanks.

Schiraldi: Interested in Dom Smith vs Jake Bauers as prospects. Seems like would pick Smith first; is his power simply more likely to come?
Klaw: Yes, and a much better hitter and defender.

Chris: I know he hasn’t pitched this year. Thoughts on ian clarkin when healthy?
Klaw: I liked him quite a bit but at this point anything I say on him seems like empty speculation.

Jim, Rockville: Keith, you suggest AJ Cole to the Nats’ rotation in 2016. Earlier (the off-season? 2014?) you opined that Cole may be better in the ‘pen, since his stuff may not be good enough as a starter. What changed your view? Thanks!
Klaw: I think I said he should break in as a reliever, for a couple of reasons, not least of which is the wobbly command he showed in that one start this spring where Matt Williams decided to burn him at the stake by having him issue an IBB while he was already having trouble throwing strikes.

ar: Why are people so bullish on McPhail? Because he seems to be a good manager? He doesn’t strike me as a particularly progressive thinker. He may be open to new ideas, but are his sabermetric chops really that impressive?
Klaw: Are his “sabermetric chops” the ones that matter? If he surrounds himself with smart people, isn’t that the key?

Frank: What did you make of Harper backing Matt Williams? Does it have any impact of Williams future in DC?
Klaw: A smart kid saying the right things when he knows the manager is dead man walking. What would Harper have to gain from burying the guy?

Mike: I appreciate you doing this, but FYI, the reverse scroll is hard to follow.
Klaw: The transcript I post after the fact (thanks to reader Patrick for the Python script) clears that up. I can’t fix the software I use, but we’ve worked to make the transcripts more user-friendly.

Jon: Who would be the closest comp you can think of for JP Crawford?
Klaw: Oddly enough, he reminds me a lot of Jimmy Rollins, but with more polish at the plate than Rollins had at the same age.

Craig: Should the Twins start Buxton in AAA next year to work on his bat or his the defense simply too good to not have up in Minnesota?
Klaw: I would. Don’t rush the guy if he’s not ready. It nearly derailed Aaron Hicks.

Matt burks: Keith, this may be a stupid question but, do you like dumping on people? I follow you on Twitter and I have to say when you sh*t on people it is hilarious
Klaw: I only dish out the snark when it’s harmless (e.g., impersonal … I avoid personal insults or foul language) and I think it will entertain the bulk of the audience. I’ve had a lot of scouts and MLB execs tell me that’s their favorite part of my Twitter output. If I find I’m getting mean or vicious, though, it’ll be time to stop.

Scott: have you had a chance to see jairo beras at all? do you think he will ever be worth the controversy?
Klaw: Yes, probably worth it, not Mazara/Brinson level good.

Rick: Can Austin Riley stick at 3B?
Klaw: Sounds like it.

NMN: Please make more fun of Cespedes for MVP people. Harper’s season could be unmatched by non-cheaters in the last 50 years.
Klaw: This is driven by media members looking for attention and people who dislike Harper because he plays the game too much the right way. Both groups are worthy of derision.

Chris, Larchmont: Given Mets hold on, do you think they should just keep Harvey off postseason roster. Given the Inning Limit distractions and fact he’ll only pitch 5 innings per outing, why not just ride Matz, Thor, deGrom (who’s getting tired)? Is Harvey more harm than good at this point?
Klaw: That’s a good question without an easy answer. If deGrom is tired, isn’t he at higher risk of injury too? Should he be given the NLDS off in favor of Harvey, and then perhaps you switch them if you get to the LCS?

E.H. Zwick: Are you coming to Toronto for any games down the stretch and if so what restaurants are going to hit? Lots of change since you lived here.
Klaw: No, I don’t travel to playoff games or the like – I’ll be in Bristol next week and a bit of the week after, then I will write up my top 50 free agent rankings before heading out to the AFL in mid-October.

Stephen: What is your favorite Iron Maiden song? For me, I break it down into categories of live and recorded, and it’s Fear of the Dark (live) and The Wicker Man (recorded).
Klaw: Ever? The Number of the Beast, Wasted Years, The Trooper (mostly for that intro riff … the lyrics are not their best). I like the hits.

mi: Travis Snider just homered… What kind of player did you see him becoming as a prospect?
Klaw: Thought he’d be a star, that he’d hit and hit for power and play good corner OF defense. He never could figure out where to get his hands to cover both the inner third and the outside corner.

Frank: Is Mac Williamson a bench guy or does he have potential to be an everyday player?
Klaw: Everyday potential – power, speed, glove, arm, might not hit that much … but the Giants do have some positive history on that front.

Mike: Keith, I know Blake Snell is a top prospect but why is it never mentioned that he only pitches 5 innings and doesn’t ever turn the lineup over a 3rd time I would think this would be a bigger deal
Klaw: Why would it? If that’s a new trend in MLB anyway, and it helps keep pitchers healthy (healthier), I don’t see the problem.

Chris, Larchmont: Marcos Molina start in AA next year?
Klaw: If his elbow hasn’t blown, maybe, but I think that arm slot and delivery are destined for the pen if they don’t give him further trouble.

Andrew: Why does Evan Gattis continue to start for the Astros? At what point do the Astros look for other options (Tucker)?
Klaw: Between Tyler White and AJ Reed, Houston has two good reasons to non-tender Gattis this winter.

Steve: Gary sanchez getting traded? Package of refsnyder and sanchez get anything good?
Klaw: I don’t think that gets you a big impact guy in return. Refsnyder is a great kid and a good story but none of that helps his defense at second.

Scott: Thoughts on Mattingly removing Wood at 78 pitches thru 8?
Klaw: I thought it was great.

Frank: I know it will not impact your vote but do you believe voters for ROY take into consideration or are influenced by pre-season hype or expectations on the players under consideration for the award?
Klaw: Probably, but maybe in both ways – some voters seem to vote against hype.

JR: How worried should KC be about Cueto? Is this SSS that he will work out, or is something else causing his recent troubles? And how much $$, if any, is this costing him?
Klaw: I worry about his health. His free agency will be fascinating – you have to want an MRI before you sign him, right?

Jim, Rockville: Keith, just for historical context, Coghlan also blew up Iwakuma’s knee back in 2009. In that instance everyone said the slide was legit, but it does perhaps show a pattern?
Klaw: Is that true?

Scott: Will Friedman/Zaidi really allow Rollins over Seager to start in playoffs? (I hope not)
Klaw: I want to say I doubt it, but I wonder if this is a situation where they are trying to get Mattingly and perhaps Rollins himself on board.

Charles: Favorite HS position player not named Rutherford in the 2016 draft?
Klaw: Kiriloff, Rizzo, McIlwain, Tuck … but I really liked Bo Bichette at the Metropolitan Classic. He’s way better than his brother – more athletic, better approach, doesn’t have that back-side collapse at the plate.

Steve: Is it possible for a guy with average arm strength to refine his mechanics enough to generate the velocity necessary to succeed on a high level?
Klaw: Sometimes, but it’s not universal. Changing mechanics in general is not simple; we hear about the successes but never the failures.

steve: Have you read Emily St. John Mandel’s Station Eleven? Beautiful book.
Klaw: It’s on my to-buy list. Currently finishing Alison Lurie’s Foreign Affairs, then going to read Hardy’s Far from the Madding Crowd. I also have All the Light We Cannot See coming up in the queue.

Rob: What do you think of Dilmot so far? Worth the price? Would recommend?
Klaw: A little pricey but easy to use and very good customer service so far.

Michael: Will you laugh or cry if Cespedes wins the NL MVP?
Klaw: Laugh. Always laugh – this stuff is hilarious. I get mad over licensed doctors in California helping people avoid vaccinations.

Chris: Where does the Dodgers farm system rank? Still top heavy and lacking in depth?
Klaw: Yes, although the big july 2nd haul helps, or will help in a year or so when we see if any of those kids is any good.

Joe: Wife and I started playing Slendor together. Love it. What game should we add next, knowing that we liked Splendor?
Klaw: How about Samurai? New edition comes out later this month, very simple rules, works for 2 players as well as 3-4. I’ll have a review on Paste next week.

Brad: When’s your next periscope? Thanks!
Klaw: So the plan is one Periscope a week and one Klawchat a week, always on different days. Usually I’ll do the Klawchats Thursdays, but when traveling I’ll move them around and will always let you guys know on Twitter and Facebook.

sammy: are both corey ray and jason groome top 5 picks next june? thx
Klaw: Potentially, yes. No locks for me right now.

Jon: I know you thought highly of Scott Kingery during the draft process, any thoughts on his performance so far and when he could see the majors?
Klaw: Small sample, but I’m glad they pushed him to the Sally League right away. He walked about twice as much there as he did in the spring, which is a good sign. If he stays at second base he could be a year or so away.

Josh: Keith, Is Dbacks SS Isan Diaz a legit prospect? Great numbers in short season at 19, but not sure if a guy or GUY
Klaw: He’s definitely a prospect.

Brad: If severino is a reliever, can he be Betances good?
Klaw: Betances’s stuff when starting was not as good as Severino’s stuff is right now.

Brad: Prospects you say you don’t think Weill be good, do you end up rooting against them or the hope they prove you wrong?
Klaw: Oh God, I never, ever root against a prospect. Those are human beings chasing their lifelong dreams.

Joe: How close was Orlando Arcia to making your prospect of the year list?
Klaw: There wasn’t any “close.” I didn’t do a long ranking or anything.

Pythagoreas: I’ve seen it suggested that run differential is a trailing indicator — that teams whose W/L records don’t match their run differential will, going forward, see their W/L performance stay the same and their run differential correct to match that, rather than the other way around. Do you think there’s any validity in that?
Klaw: That hurt my head just to read it. I see no validity at all to that.

Anonymous: Why don’t we see many prospect for prospect trades in baseball?
Klaw: Now I would make this illegal.

Bob: Does it seem that this chat software allows you to answer questions more quickly?
Klaw: I think the software itself is much more responsive.

Jon: Do you think McIlwain gives up football and goes baseball full time?
Klaw: I hope so. He’d be very foolish to turn down a potential $2 million bonus now to go get the crap beaten out of him in SEC football.

Scott: On taking out Wood: You like it because t was good for Wood? Mattingly said would’ve left him with 4-0 lead. Right move, wrong motives?
Klaw: Hah, yes, right move, wrong motives. I liked it because it was good for Wood and good for the team’s chances to win anyway.

Michael: Keith, I know you said this chat service runs at a cost to you, but thanks for doing it. Usually it seems like lip service a bit when a chatter says “they enjoy doing it” because they of course aren’t going to say they hate it, but you paying essentially to chat with us is awesome. Respect brah
Klaw: Word.

Andy: Why don’t all teams have an MRI machine and check players all the time? Every pitcher gets an MRI every two weeks. It won’t prevent traumatic injuries, but could help with wear and tear.
Klaw: They’re expensive, not simple tests, may have some long-term health concerns, and in some cases (where a dye is injected) put the player on the shelf for a few days.

Robert: Has everyone forgotten about Tyler Skaggs? Hoping to see him, Newcomb, and Richards in the same rotation.
Klaw: Their rotation in 2016 won’t be the problem. They have a lot offensive holes to patch and probably need to shore up the bullpen.

Bob:Is your ranking of prospects based on future ceiling, how close they are to the major leagues, or a combination?
Klaw: Much more the former than the latter – otherwise I’d never have an Anderson Espinoza type on the list, and I feel like you guys need to know about him. That’s all for this week – thank you all so much, as always, for joining me here and for reading. I hope to see a few of you in Bowie tonight and I will hold another Klawchat next week, probably on Wednesday. Thanks again.