I’ve seen eight of the nine Best Picture nominees but ended up light on the acting categories, so take all of this with a huge grain of salt. I’m just throwing my opinions out there for discussion, and because it’s fun to talk about this stuff before we get all serious by talking baseball. All links go to my reviews of the films.
Best Picture
My choice: Zero Dark Thirty
Prediction: Argo
Everyone’s assuming Argo will win after it has won most of the major predictor awards, defying the previous conventional wisdom that a film can’t win Best Picture if its director isn’t even nominated for Best Director. It’s a solid movie, not a terrible choice in the abstract, but not the best movie I saw from 2012. Zero Dark Thirty was better across the board for me – better written, better acted, better staged, and tackled a more serious subject.
Best Director
My choice: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Prediction: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
I’m not even sure how to consider these five directors; Kathryn Bigelow would have been my choice, but she, Quentin Tarantino, and Ben Affleck were all snubbed despite outstanding efforts on their respective films. Tarantino may have been omitted for that awful Australian accent, though.
Best Actor
My choice: Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
DDL has had this in the bag since the movie came out, but I thought Jackman’s role was more demanding while it was just as central to his movie as DDL’s was to his. I’m still irritated that Richard Parker didn’t even get an nomination, however. Note that I’ve only seen three of the five nominated performances.
Best Actress
My choice: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
She just edges out Jessica Chastain for me, but I think the actual voting won’t be that close. Lawrence’s performance lacked the gravitas of Chastain’s but it was no less convincing or essential to her film’s success. Again, I’ve only seen three of the five performances here.
Best Supporting Actor
My choice: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Prediction: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
I think De Niro gets the “hey, thanks for finally making another decent movie” award, and I can’t argue that much with the choice. Waltz had far more screen time in a role that recalled the meticulously malevolent character he played in Inglorious Basterds, but this time with more emotional depth. I have not seen The Master among the five films involved here.
Best Supporting Actress
My choice: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Prediction: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Of the three performances I’ve seen here – Hathaway’s, Weaver’s, and Field’s – this is a no-brainer. I will see The Sessions at some point soon, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Hunt deserved this one more.
Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay
My choice: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Prediction: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
I could see Argo pulling this off, but I think the more erudite language of Lincoln will resonate more with older voters. That said, if Silver Linings Playbook hadn’t ended with that silly parlay, it would have been my pick here.
Best Writing, Original Screenplay
My choice: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Prediction: Pass
I’ve only seen two of the five nominees here, so I’m just including this category for the sake of completeness.
Include your own picks and predictions below. Anyone who nails every winner gets a free one-year subscription to the dish.
http://oscars.nytimes.com/2013/ballot/920j200q
Interesting picks, Keith!
I have stopped following the Academy Awards many years ago as i started watching more movies and began developing opinions of my own, and found that the awards are not the best representation of the year’s best work. Much like the Grammys don’t represent the best in music (I would have missed on a lot of great indie bands over the years) and the Emmys don’t representat the best in television (The Wire had very little recognition for example), the Academy Awards is out of touch with the critics and too often gets swept up in the hype. My gut feeling is that Lincoln will sweep the awards because of the scope it covers and the talent attached to the film.
Not sure if you mean for the 8 major categories or all 24. If all 24, then I won’t bother.
Best PIcture: Argo
Best Director: Spielberg, Lincoln
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Best PIcture: Argo
Best Director: Spielberg, Lincoln
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Best Picture: Argo
Mine: ZD30
Best Actor: DDL
Mine: John Hawkes, but since the academy didn’t get it, I’ll go Jackman.
Best Actress: Lawrence
Mine: Lawrence
Best supporting actor: TLJ
Mine: Alan Arkin
Best supporting actress; Way too easy
Mine: Also as easy
Best Director: Spielberg
Mine: Tie between Russell and Lee. YES I CAN TOO DO THAT
Best original screenplay: Boal
Mine: Boal
Best adapted: Kushner
Mine: David O. Russell.
Best Acting performance all year was Joaquin Phoenix, and it’s not even close.
Hugh Jackman is a sack of crap. Best actor? That is the worst choice I have ever seen. You sir, are the Bob Nightengale of Oscar assessments
good day.
@Jacob: I don’t tolerate that kind of comments here. If you want to continue to participate, please lay off the personal attacks and stick to real arguments.
I’m pleased that Tarantino won for Best Original Screenplay, but I’m still shocked, given how violent and over the top it was. He had to be helped by the ZDT non-troversy.
I hope you laid money on your Ang Lee Christoph Waltz parlay. That’s good stuff.
Random question on awards in entertainment (Oscar, Grammy, Emmy, Tony) as compared to awards in sports…
Do you think that the fact that the entertainment awards do not reveal voting differential (or even who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th) causes more/less problems than the sports awards that list people in order of votes?
Would sports arguments be different if you could only say Jack Morris finished as a Cy Young “nominee” x times in his career (without knowing if that meant he was 2nd or 5th in voting)? Would that dramatically alter how sports teams gave contracts to players?
Along the same lines…would an actor that consistently came in second for an Emmy make more money than someone who was only 5th a few times??