I’ve got a column up for Insiders with hypothetical Hall of Fame ballot, with seven names on it, a few of whom will probably still be waiting if and when I become eligible to vote.
Also, I’ll be on ESPNEWS today at 2:40 pm EST, topics still TBD.
→ November 30, 2009
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I just don’t understand the general lack of support for Rock Raines as a HOF candidate. I wrote to the creator of the BleedCubbieBlue website to complain about how Raines is deserving (using some of your analyis) and not only doesn’t he agree, he thinks Andre Dawson should be a lock. It’s called OBP, and speaking of that, why do the Phillies decline the option on Feliz to possibly make a move for Beltre? Beltre is not that big an improvement defensively (Feliz is pretty solid with the glove as well), will cost more $$, and offensively they are very comparable. In fact, Feliz had a slightly higher OBP and SLG last year than Beltre. I don’t get it.
Just curious…why no vote for Fred McGriff? He was not amazing, but he was pretty consistent over the years and his HR total is legit (as far as we know).
Also, I agree 100% on Bert 🙂
Hope all is well.
I’m a “small Hall” kind of guy–if there’s a debate on any player, he shouldn’t be in. Ergo, all of the guys you mentioned should be left out, except for Alomar, whom I view as a slam dunk.
That said, in looking at Egdar Martinez, here’s my question: since he is a non-entity defensively, shouldn’t the standards for his inclusion be that much higher than for a standard player? It shouldn’t be enough for a pure DH if he reaches a Wade Boggs level of offensive production; he should be a Ted Williams-esque hitter to make up for his complete lack of defensive productivity. Edgar wasn’t even at the Boggs level, so I don’t see how deserves inclusion.
I still hope Rickey speaks up for Raines at some point. I have no idea if they have any relationship whatsoever, but if the greatest leadoff hitter ever touts a very similar contemporary, it would probably carry a ton of weight.
Rickey: .401 OBP, .140 isoP
Raines: .385 OBP, .131 isoP
Gwynn: .388 OBP, .121 isoP
I still hope Rickey speaks up for Raines at some point. I have no idea if they have any relationship whatsoever, but if the greatest leadoff hitter ever touts a very similar contemporary, it would probably carry a ton of weight.
Rickey: .401 OBP, .140 isoP
Raines: .385 OBP, .131 isoP
Gwynn: .388 OBP, .121 isoP
No Chris Carpenter?
Figures. . .
TomD you realize that ” there’s a debate on any player, he shouldn’t be in” is a literally impossible standard. If everybody went “Small Hall”, then the dividing line would just shift. The fight would be over Ozzie Smith (who got 91%) instead of Barry Larkin.
Your position only works if you’re in the minority. That kind of self-definition makes it pretty unconstructive.
Bob,
Adrian Beltre’s lifetime OPS+ is 105. Feliz’s is 83. In 2009, Beltre produced a career-worst OPS+ of 82 while suffering through an injury plagued season, playing in the worst hitter’s park for right-handed batters and in the better league. Feliz’s OPS+ this year was 81. In their careers – both players were rookies in 2002 – Beltre has produced 33.6 WAR while Feliz has produced 14.4 WAR. If Philly goes from Beltre to Feliz, it will surely be an upgrade at 3B.
TomD, is it better to be a detriment to your team defensively or not play defense at all? There are plenty of guys in the HOF from the pre-DH days who were poor defenders and who most likely would have been DH’s if the rule was in play during their careers. For instance, I believe I remember reading that Lou Brock was a bad fielder. Are those guys, who hurt their teams while in the field, hall worthy? If so, why should a DH be held to a higher hitting standard?
I’d say yes, a DH should be held to a far higher standard of offense than a position player, even a bad one. To oversimplify, put Edgar Martinez in LF (or back at 3B) and he would do far more harm than Lou Brock did. DH is more than just not playing the field, its forcing someone else bad to play the field instead of you. Same reason Manny had to either sit or hobble when Ortiz had the DH locked up and why the Yankees are hesitant to give Matsui another year despite his bat being a plus at the position. There’s a usage cost of employing a full time DH.
I know BP’s defensive numbers are far from perfect, but check Edgar’s career. Assuming his peak defense would have been early on, forcing him to play the field for his whole career would have very likely cancelled out the offensive positional adjustment up from DH to corner and lowered his overall WARP numbers. Not to mention the position serves as a safehaven for injury prone hitters.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/martied01.php
Dave,
I appreciate your take and, in re-reading my comments, I realize that I might not have made my point clearly. Let me restate…when looking at HOF inclusion, I am okay with a DH’s offensive numbers needing to be better than those of an average defender as long as we apply similar needs to poor defenders. We shouldn’t ignore Edgar’s lack of defense as long as we included Brock’s poor defense in the equation when considering his candidacy. As the issue applies to Edgar and his lifetime OPS+ of 147 (top 40 all-time) in 8,600 PA’s, I believe his offensive production was sufficient to overcome his position as a DH.
Would you vote for Giambi if he retired tomorrow? Very similar slashes, basically a season less of PAs.
Basically, I’m wondering if Martinez is actually getting a hidden bump from being the first truly great DH and not having many direct comps whereas Giambi is against every great 1B ever. I’m still on the fence, leaning no, with Frank Thomas as the first “true” DH to get in (with Molitor having more games in the field than at DH).
(Also, I’m blanking on a solid very good hitter + top fielding 1B comp for Martinez. Olerud? Similar numbers -50 points of isoP but great defense.)
(Also, also, is this where I whine about how much I hate OPS and this OPS+? Its the most widely understood singular hitting stat but its so flawed.)
Dave,
That’s an interesting question about Giambi. Before looking at his numbers on BR and Fan Graphs, I forgot how dominant he was from 1999 through 2006 with the exception of his injury plagued 2004 season. I think we have to look at Edgar and Giambi in pretty much the same light and say that Giambi, with his lifetime .400 wOBA and 143 OPS+, is worthy.