I’ll be on ESPNEWS at 2:40 pm EDT, on ESPN 101.1 FM in St. Louis at 2:20 pm CDT, and on Atlanta 680 the FAN at 3:50 pm EDT.
I wrote a piece destroying the two anti-Strasburg memes I’ve seen this year – that “greatest college pitcher ever” candidates don’t work out, and that pitchers taken #1 overall don’t work out. Just a reality bill that some folks won’t want to pay.
And there’s another video up on players who’ll get to the majors quickly from this draft.
I had a “Generation K” poster on my wall when I was getting into little league. Dallas Green destroyed it all- for the pitchers, and my childhood memories.
Keith, I liked the Stratsburg article but I think you are being unfair to Neyer. You point out that there is nothing that should convince the Nats to go in another direction, but Neyer was not advocating anything of the sort. Rather he was pointing out that it’s too early to consider success an inevitability for Stratsburg. Surely you concede that there is no such thing as a sure thing, especially when it comes to pitching prospects.
This reminds me of SI’s World Series pick a few years back. After “concluding” that the best team in baseball rarely wins the World Series, they actively chose a team they conceded was NOT the best. Their logic was, “The Yankees look the best right now, so they won’t win, because the best team never wins.” WTF?
That seems to be the logic here. Is Strasburg a guarantee at success? No. Is he guaranteed to be the best player this draft produces? No. But, if fair and objective measures indicate him to be the top talent, why would you take anyone else? Why would you ever choose anyone but the best team to win? You won’t always be right, but the odds are in your favor, no?
I think that article unfairly calls out Neyer. I don’t think he was making the hardline argument you would have the reader believe (maybe he has an article on the subject I haven’t read, but I don’t think so).
ANyway I’m loving all these links! can’t wait for the draft analysis.
I’d like to see someone address his marginal value over the 2nd best pitcher in the draft. There is little doubt that Strasburg is the best, but is he $20M (or whatever the appropriate number for the difference in guaranteed money will be) better than the #2 guy?
This is the interesting question, IMHO.
(And yes, people who think he should be passed on because other good prospects flopped are grade “A” morons.)
Is every person at ESPN who does analysis segments while standing required to use hand motions?
“There is little doubt that Strasburg is the best, but is he $20M (or whatever the appropriate number for the difference in guaranteed money will be) better than the #2 guy?”
Probably more if draftees received fair market value.
@ Marco
Even if he’s not necessarily worth $20M than the second guy, unless you can guarantee that you can invest the difference in money in more talent, all you do is get less talent and spend less money. You can’t draft 4 guys for $5M or 1 guy for $20M.
Agree with most that Neyer did not need to be “destroyed”.
I don’t think he was trying to predict Strasburg’s future, just more pointing out the old “TINSTAAPP” principle. The man has written a book on the history of baseball pitchers. I don’t think he needs to be fisked for using this opportunity to give his readers a history lesson.
@BSK
Nothing says you have to spend it all at once. Strasburg may be an excellent talent, but I suspect that a team would be better off taking the money spent on Strasburg and grabbing the Porcello (high talent, falls because of high signing demands) of the next three years in a row.
Except that the real Porcello wouldn’t have fallen to Washington because he got snapped up by Detroit at the bottom of the 1st (and I’m sure had atleast 2 more teams ready to pick him before he could get to Washington at the top of the 2nd round). Passing on an elite prospect for future unnamed signability cases doesn’t seem like the best way to rebuild a franchise.
Hey look!
Dave Cameron tackled my question:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley