New first-round projection is up. As I noted in the comments there and on Twitter, I heard after it was posted that the Rockies are “heavy heavy” on Matt Hobgood for one of their two picks.
Radio hit on Baseball Tonight this evening.
UPDATE they just posted my NYC radio hit with Seth Everett.
Ticket to Ride is a very cool game, by the way. I need to update that boardgames post, once I survive the draft.
Was bedeutet “Schlagobers”?
Keith- how’d the Rockies end up with the last pick in the 1st round?
I may have spelled it wrong, but it’s whipped cream. Had it in Vienna years ago – either espresso with whipped cream or espresso macchiatto with whipped cream. Had some schlagobers left over from the bday cake.
The Rox get pick 32 for losing Fuentes to the Angels, who had pick 32 for having the best record last year.
It’s idiom, perhaps localized. Schlagsahne is the standard hoch-deutsch word. I lived in Bavaria and my family is German, and had never heard the term Schlagobers.
As a Giants fan, I’m a little wary of Tim Wheeler at #6. Wouldn’t that be a pretty huge overdraft? I was kind of thinking they’d just grab Matzek and we’d all call it a day.
Power Grid is also a board game you should check out …
Danke, Herr Law. I’m guessing you haven’t studied any German? Too bad, reading fairy tales in their original German is a fun experience. Or maybe I’m just weird.
Thanks Keith.
A first round pick is quite a steal for Fuentes and his 5+ ERA.
What German I know – maybe 500 words, and pretty much just the present tense – is self-taught. I’m toying with the idea of trying it again over the summer, once the draft is over, although I’ve also debated doing Dutch, since we’re hoping to take a trip to Amsterdam in the next 12-18 months.
KLaw,
Your predictions are great, here’s one of mine:
And the new Nat’s 09 closer is…
Strasburg!!!
First, I think Strasburg will play with the National’s THIS YEAR, as their much needed CLOSER! What a great way to give him some experience and still limit his innings.
Second, The National have just as much leverage as boras or more, because if Strasburg doesn’t sign, what’s he going to do… go back to college or an independent league and risk injury? Don’t think so! Not to mention, that boras likes to get his clients to free agency as soon as possible and if he doesn’t sign, he will have wasted a year. All the big money talk is a smokescreen. Strasburg will sign by the August 15th deadline and will be in the majors by September first as the new Nationals CLOSER!!!
Bill
Keith have you played Carcassonne yet?
Bill, putting Strasburg in the pen to limit his innings is fine but using him as a closer is a terrible idea. True closers’ appearances are the least “controlled” by the team. If they’re losing 3 straight games the closer likely doesn’t get in; if they’re winning close-and-late in 3 straight, the closer may throw in all 3. Even back to back would be awful usage of Strasburg.
(Under Bowden, I’d consider it totally plausible. Under Rizzo, I can’t see it happening.
bill left that EXACT same comment on BP a little while ago and it had like a -12 rating and got hidden.
Peter: Yes. Love it.
Bill: Awful idea, sorry, primarily for the reason Dave outlined.
Keith, Hughes to the bullpen to solve the Yanks rotation logjam, temporary only. Is it as simple as good idea if he’s a multi-inning relief ace, bad idea if they make him a one-inning guy? I haven’t heard what his ‘role’ is going to be yet.
speaking of starters being moved into the bullpen, how unlikely is it that brad holt could move quickly through the minors and wind up in the mets september bullpen?
Kevin: 2 weeks caddying for Wang then back to the rotation, either in NY (worst case) or SWB (“best case”).
Keith: I see you don’t like the McLouth deal but why? Morton is a back-end guy and Gorkys’ scouting reports / numbers make him look like an Ellsbury-type at best (perhaps without a spot due to McCutchen?) so doesn’t that mean the bet is on Locke? McLouth is certainly overrated as a GG CF but one would assume he’d play a strong LF and his bat should carry the position at a good salary for 4 years. I’m not a huge McLouth guy but the package didn’t look that steep (present rating or upside-wise) upon first amateur glance. In other words, am I underrating the return (an individual piece or the whole) or overrating McLouth by forecasting him as an above average 2 way LF?
Keith,
I’m interested on your take as well with this trade. You’ve consistently disliked McLouth and deemed him “overrated” numerous times. If Atlanta was willing to give up these prospects, with Gorkys possibly being the best, what is it that you know that they don’t, or are they so desperate?
They are pretty desperate. And they’re playing him in CF, at which – GG aside – he’s not very good.
Ooooo, Varitek is catching a no-no! I hope I didn’t just jinx him.
Keith: Would your opinion change if McLouth were slotted into LF or would the move down the spectrum mean its still an overpay? He sort of profiles like a younger, cheaper (2008 pre-power surge) Damon assuming he’d also go from minus CF defense to plus LF by moving over. Which of the prospects are you high on?
There’s huge upside in this deal if they replace “the face of the franchise” over in RF with McLouth. Don’t see that happening though.
Also, isn’t Heyward likely to be ready late 2010 / early 2011?
If they wanted a corner outfielder, I’m sure they could have done better with that package.
Not trying to be confrontational at all, but who would be available for that package and a better fit for a mid-market team? McLouth isn’t just a stopgap, he’s a solid value for 3.5 more seasons. I guess I don’t really see the downside here; no top prospect lost, good cost controlled player coming in. Bonus points if he sells a few t-shirt jerseys.
(Kidding with the last part, I fully get the knocks on McLouth. Bad CF, gets bonus points for being a blonde kid, all that. Still has a >.200 isoP for the 3rd straight year, is 52 of 56 on the bases over that time and *should* play a plus LF when Schafer comes back. I think he’s one of those guys we’ve been conditioned to backlash against so much that his actual value is lost in the middle.)
Looking at his career numbers, 1st half of 2008 looks to be the power outlier (.542 SLG) vs. 2006 (.385), 2007 (.459), 2nd half 2008 (.426) and this year (.470). He’s 28 so we should be looking at a peak year and he’s .256/.349/.470 right now. Any positional adjustment for CF would be offset by his lack of range and -15 run defense out there.
I could be over stating this a bit, but that line seems to be about league average for a corner outfielder (at his supposed peak no less) which is where he SHOULD be playing.
I suppose any way to get Francoeur and Anderson out of the lineup is a huge upgrade though as long as Diaz continues to get ABs over those two.
And the contract is certainly good value, I’d just like to think you could do better for two top 100 prospects, one of whom has a .360 OBP in AA at 21 with great defense in CF, especially with so many teams allegedly looking for financial relief.
John, who could they have gotten?
No one is saying McClouth is an all star, but he is a big upgrade and won’t have to play CF for more than a year.
The only guy I think they could have gotten that is better offensivley with that package is Brad Hawpe..and he obviously cannot play CF as he can hardly play a corner.
Hernandez’s AA numbers are getting a huge boost right now from a .424(!!!) BABIP. Take that down to even .350 and his overall line drops to .259/.308/.318. His 13 XBH to 54 SO is just ugly.
But perhaps I am just overrating what I’d project out of McLouth in LF. His OBP is right in line with the positional average, his isoP 30 or so points higher, his baserunning is certainly a plus and, again perhaps a bad projection on my part, his defense should be above average. At that age/contract/package, I just really like the pickup.
(Not a Braves fan.)
Keith-
On a different topic, but a real interesting piece you contributed to on different teams’ drafting philosophies. Is there any hard analysis (either objective or subjective) of these different approaches? I would love to see you grade/rate approaches, both in a vacuum and for teams’ individual financial situations and overall team philosophies (pressure to win now vs. rebuilding mode). That would be really helpful. You guys were a bit TOO objective in your reporting. Where’s the snark???
How about a Baseball Tonight debate between you and Stark regarding the draft and slot system?
I bet it would be even better than you and JoePo arguing with Steve “He feels like a Hall of Famer to me” Phillips about Rice.
Last point on McLouth: I know that you’re giving a 365 day line on him but that’s somewhat skewed by a horrible June where he hit .214/.272/.350.
From last July through present: .266/.351/.470 (without IBB OBP is .343)
Since the beginning of last year : .272/.354/.492. (.346)
Since the beginning of last year without June 2008 (!): .281/.367/.514 (.358)
Basically, if you cut out 2 really good months you can make him look bad and if you cut out one terrible month, you can make him look better. *As a whole*, his last 3 years appear pretty identical. I get the valuation debate on a LF with his line, but not saying “all he’s ever done is April/May 2008”. That seems like fitting the stats to your argument rather than vice versa.
I picked the last year because … it’s the last year. I wanted a full season of PT.
Eliminating June takes away PA against AL pitchers, against whom he had a .544 OPS. In other words, when faced with pitching from the superior league, he sucked, in a small sample. I find that quite relevant, especially since he’ll have another ~70 PA against AL pitchers every year – and even more relevant if I’m an AL GM thinking about acquiring him.
I know you were doing 365, I’m just saying in 28 days, his 365 line goes up significantly. Unless he tanks against the AL again, I guess …
Re: Chat today @ TV shows.
It’s not TV. It’s HBO.
Re: baseball is sport/business (from the chat).
Baseball is a sport. Major League Baseball is a business entity. Why people think of MLB differently from from other businesses, even other entertainment ventures, I have no idea.
Re: 300 Wins
If Carsten Charles isn’t the best bet, he has to be considered the 2nd, no? Will likely match Halladay’s current total (and has a solid shot at 150) before his 30th birthday.
CC’s got to be a bigger bet to break down though, right? He’s been durable, but we’ve seen what happens to that body type as it ages.
Then again, he could be like David Wells and post 4 WAR seasons into his forties, but Boomer certainly missed time with back-related injuries.
Oh, and Keith, feel free to make fun of my youth all you want. I don’t scare that easy.
Kevin S.-
Take the opposite tact. Just make fun of Keith for his age. At just about every job I’ve had since college, I’ve been the youngest person. After a few years of jokes, I just started throwing it back at the old folks. It’s not our fault Keith is getting senile…