My Strasburg piece, with video, has been pushed back to Tuesday. It’ll be on the draft blog at some point tomorrow morning.
EDIT: My piece on ASU lefty Josh Spence is up. He’s not a first- or second-round guy, but he’s fun to watch.
→ March 23, 2009
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Keith, you’ve probably addressed this elsewhere but I could not find a discussion of it here….with his retirement today, is Schilling a HOFer?
Today I’ve heard people compare him to Hershiser, Kevin Brown, Jack Morris, etc. to suggest that he is not hall worthy. Personally I feel that his high strikeout numbers and low WHIP separate him (and Smoltz) from the aforementioned guys and suggest a level of dominance that those guys did not exhibit. Right now I sort of lean that he should be in the hall, I’m curious to know what you think.
Thanks.
don’t know if I can comment on your twitter updates (haven’t bothered signing up to find out – perhaps I should), so I’ll do it here. I was at that Brewers-Giants game, too, and yeah – Rickie Weeks hit a BOMB early in that game. Wow. I can see how people have predicted greatness from him… too bad he can’t make more consistent contact (or stay healthy).
CM,
I agree Schilling is a better pitcher than the comparables listed. But Smoltz doesn’t really have a good comparison, right?
Klaw,
Have you met Amy Nelson? I just realized she is very cute. I know you’re a married man… but you could always let her know she was referred to in your blog. She’d definitely appreciate it coming from me.
FQ:
I think Smoltz makes a fairly good comparison to Schilling. I realize Smoltz had those four years out of the pen where he racked up a bunch of saves, but the raw numbers minus the saves (and let’s be honest, saves are a fairly meaningless stat) are generally close to Schilling.
BREF has the top comparisons to Smoltz as Kevin Brown, Schilling, Bob Welch, Hershiser, and Jim Bunning. I see Smoltz as superior to all those (caveat that I never saw Bunning pitch in person). That the comparison scores are not that high might indicate that you are correct that Smoltz doesn’t have a great comparison.
Eckersley pitched out of the pen for much longer and really wasn’t as good as Smoltz as a starter but I can see Smoltz cruising into the HOF because of Eck, while I think Schilling will have a much more difficult time.
I think both Brown and Smoltz make pretty good comparisons to Schilling, and to me that just shows how borderline he is as a candidate. All 3 have an identical ERA+ (127) over very similar innings totals (Smoltz has about 150 more than Brown and Schilling). They also all have very similar win-loss records, not that it should be a major consideration. While it’s true that Schilling has the best K/BB and WHIP of the three, he also has by far the highest number of HR allowed (347, vs. 277 for Smoltz and 208 for Brown). That’s the reason those ERA+ numbers are similar, despite Schilling’s WHIP et al. All had a couple stellar years, but were not perennially in the Cy Young award voting (Smoltz and Brown received votes in 5 years each, Schilling in 4, though 3 of those were 2nd place finishes. The year Smoltz won, Brown was runner up and perhaps should have won – his ERA+ was 60 points better). Smoltz and Schilling get extra credit for superb postseason performance (and I would consider Smoltz’s 2.67 ERA over 207 innings just about as impressive as Schilling’s 2.23 over 133 innings). In my opinion, you either have to vote for all three, or just for Smoltz and Schilling on the logic that their postseason performance distinguishes them, or for none.
I think you’re being very generous to Brown, Hershiser, and Morris by comparing them to Smoltz. I just looked at Baseball Prospectus’ comparables for Smoltz. The top 6 players include Clemens, Wilhelm, Perry, and Ryan. I think Schilling is a tad below Smoltz performance-wise, but both pitchers are/were better than each of the three comparables. For example, I’d use Eckersley, Clemens, and Randy Johnson.
Re: Weeks
I have survived his torture for three years now in my fantasy leagues. I’m sure he will be making it a fourth this year.
FQ, I’m going to side with Baseball Reference on this one, and say Smoltz is a lot more similar to Brown, at least, than any of the four pitchers BP named. He has an identical ERA+ to Brown in about 150 more IP. On the other hand, he has 1500 fewer IP than Clemens, about 2000 fewer than Perry and Ryan, and 1000 more than Wilhelm. To me, that is a massive difference that prevents accurate comparison. I can certainly see Eckersley, who threw a similar number of innings (and I don’t think was quite as good as Smoltz). Johnson and Clemens were both significantly better, for longer, than Smoltz – I’d say the difference there may be as big, or bigger, than the difference between Smoltz and Hershiser (which is admittedly not a great comp, although far better than Morris ).
Keith,
I may be way off on this but it seems pitchers from Asian countries have much more stop-and-go, or herky jerky pitching mechanics than American pitchers on average. Is this on purpose? Or am I just missing all the American guys?
Great piece Keith.
No hedging or any silly qualifications just throw a metaphorical 100 mpher.
If the Nats sign him can he pitch in ’09 in September? Apologies for my ignorance but with a mid August deadline why not?
Jon UK,
He can certainly pitch in September if signed by the August 15th deadline, but depending on his workload during the college season, the Nats may elect to put him on the shelf til 2010. Plus, with Boras leading the negotiations, I can’t imagine he’ll be signing much before the deadline, which means Strasburg could be looking at 60 days of relative inactivity (college season ends in June). It would be great for baseball fans and Nats fans to see him make a spot start or two after he signs.
Keith,
You mention his high school years, where he was apparently out of shape and hitting 88-89. It’s still a bit surprising that no MLB team took a shot at him. Obviously, he had some projection in him, although no one can project 10mph. Did you see him back then or was this the first time you’ve had a chance to see him?
O/T …
Miami passes stadium vote … ugh.
I guess there *is* a plus side to it: It’ll look great for all the people who drive by on the Dolphin Expressway as they head … somewhere else.
Keith, not really related to anything here – but I’ve noticed a LOT of guys have the ‘he’ll start the season on the DL’ attached to their names (Santana, Glaus, etc..) but they aren’t currently on the DL? Is there a roster constraint reason for that? I would seem like the teams would want to put them on sooner than later? or can they just back date the DL stint to last year since these guys haven’t played in a game? Sorry for the long question – any sort of answer or a point in the right direction from someone would be cool…
thanks,
JW – my guess is that, at this point, there are no real roster restrictions. I don’t say that with any certainty, though.
JW, I haven’t checked this, but I suspect that teams can put players on the DL retroactive to the last time they played a spring training game with the major league club. A lot of these players who you see in action are actually playing in minor league spring training games (at least, I know that’s the case with Jason Schmidt). Also, the regular season for most teams starts April 6 – someone who is put on the 15 day DL tomorrow would be eligible to play April 10, so it’s not like teams are losing a whole lot by waiting, especially if it’s still unclear whether the player could be ready by opening day (e.g. Santana).
There is no 15-day DL until there are (I think) 10 days left in spring training, which means placing a guy there costs you five days of the regular season. I may be off on the days, but I don’t have my rulebook here in Arizona.
Keith, no comment on the Schilling question? Can we expect an article on the four-letter, or do you just not care about the topic?