I finally had time to tally all of the ballots from the quickie ten-man Hall of Fame thread. There were five incomplete ballots that listed ineligible players (Bonds, Clemens, Maddux, and Rose) or had a joke player on the list; one ballot only had eight eligible names and the other four had nine. I’ve contacted those folks to ask if they wanted to revise their ballots, and I’ll update this post if any of them responds. (UPDATED: Two of the incomplete ballots are now complete, so the list below has changed, although the top ten were unaffected.)
So, out of 63 total ballots, including the partial ballots, here are the results:
| Player | Votes | Percent |
| Babe Ruth | 63 | 100% |
| Ted Williams | 58 | 92% |
| Willie Mays | 58 | 92% |
| Walter Johnson | 55 | 87% |
| Honus Wagner | 46 | 73% |
| Cy Young | 37 | 59% |
| Hank Aaron | 35 | 56% |
| Ty Cobb | 35 | 56% |
| Lou Gehrig | 29 | 46% |
| Mickey Mantle | 26 | 41% |
| Christy Mathewson | 25 | 40% |
| Stan Musial | 23 | 37% |
| Jackie Robinson | 20 | 32% |
| Rickey Henderson | 18 | 29% |
| Rogers Hornsby | 15 | 24% |
| Lefty Grove | 15 | 24% |
| Joe DiMaggio | 8 | 13% |
| Satchel Paige | 8 | 13% |
| Josh Gibson | 7 | 11% |
| Tom Seaver | 6 | 10% |
| Sandy Koufax | 5 | 8% |
| Warren Spahn | 5 | 8% |
| Joe Morgan | 5 | 8% |
| Mike Schmidt | 5 | 8% |
| Yogi Berra | 4 | 6% |
| Johnny Bench | 2 | 3% |
| Jimmie Foxx | 2 | 3% |
| Frank Robinson | 2 | 3% |
| Bob Gibson | 1 | 2% |
| Tris Speaker | 1 | 2% |
| Reggie Jackson | 1 | 2% |
| Hank Greenberg | 1 | 2% |
| Eddie Collins | 1 | 2% |
| Nap Lajoie | 1 | 2% |
| Cal Ripken | 1 | 2% |
| Oscar Charleston | 1 | 2% |
| Nolan Ryan | 1 | 2% |
| Harmon Killebrew | 1 | 2% |
The last column, just in case it isn’t obvious, tells you on how many ballots the player was listed.
Nobody had the top ten vote-getters on his ballot; five different voters listed nine of the top ten. Kevin and Tom had the top nine vote-getters on their ballots, and eleven others had eight. Only five of the players on my ballot ended up in the top ten.
Some quick thoughts:
• I think omitting Mays from my ten was a mistake. As I said in the last discussion thread, it wasn’t deliberate; the point of the exercise was to give ten names that were more or less off the top of your head. I’d probably bump Young off of my ballot, because he was largely an accumulator and did so much of his work in the 19th century and early 20th century, when it was really a different game and much easier for pitchers.
• I was surprised by the general lack of support for Warren Spahn. Even ignoring the 4th-highest-all-time win total, that’s 5200+ innings of a 3.09 ERA in the postwar era. Until Maddux, he was the best pitcher of baseball’s integrated period.
• Just about all of us skewed towards old-timers. When we think “Hall of Fame,” we think of those guys, the ones who are just names and stat pages and old black-and-white photographs. Mike Schmidt is probably the greatest third baseman of all time; Johnny Bench might be the greatest catcher of all time; Joe Morgan was probably better than Rogers Hornsby, whom I listed; yet none of those three guys appeared on 10% of the ballots. In fact, 57 of the 63 ballots didn’t contain a single catcher, and 43 didn’t include a second baseman, even though we all understand where those positions lie on the defensive spectrum.
• I have no idea what to make of Negro League players, so I didn’t list any. I’m just not sure how to compare them to players from the racist era. I feel like we all accept Josh Gibson as the best Negro Leaguer because that’s what everyone says, and in other areas of baseball analysis, we would never be satisfied with that line of thinking.
“Until Maddux, he was the best pitcher of baseball’s integrated period.”
I went with Seaver myself. I also wanted to include Schmidt, but it’s difficult knocking off the guy who they named the pitching award after.
Permission to slap the person who thought Harmon Killebrew belonged in a Hall of Fame that had been reduced to ten men.
I have the same problem with the Negro league players. I love the romanticism that surrounds Satchel Paige, and had I done a top ten I likely would have included him, but how can we truly quantify what is mostly legend and hyperbole (even if it is wonderful legend and hyperbole)?
hey windier it’s the first ten to come to mind, not the first ten when thought about for 10 minutes.
Well, Mays wasn’t among the first dozen to come to mind for me, nor was Honus Wagner, so I’m not slapping anybody.
Maybe I should have paid more attention to this as you were doing it and I could be missing a rule somewhere, but – seriously, Roberto Clemente didn’t make ANYONE’S ballot?
That baffles me. In addition to his accumulated and average numbers, he has the reputation (deserved or not, I suppose) of being the best defensive corner outfielder ever, was an incredible human being/ambassador for the game (I know, irrelevant) and is essentially the adopted godfather of generations of latin baseball players.
Also, he and Gehrig are the only players (before the adapted rules changed at about the time that Thurmon Munson died)to have the HOF’s 5 year waiting period waived.
I’m not saying he’s a no-brainer, but out of 100 votes, I’m shocked that he didn’t even get one vote.
Keith,
you say that Josh Gibson is accepted as the best Negro League player. I thought that the distinction belonged to either Charleston or Bell, am I totally off on this?
Also, why do you say that Morgan was better than Hornsby, was Morgan’s D that much better that Horsnby’s or are you adjusting the numbers based on the eras? Btw, I would not be surprised if Morgan-TV-commentator is a reason why some don’t think of him right away (I am definitely guilty of this myself)…
Bill James had Charleston as the greatest Negro Leaguer in his abstract (and as the #4 player of all time), for what it’s worth. James’s top ten was
Ruth
Wagner
Mays
Charleston
Cobb
Mantle
Williams
Johnson
Gibson
Musial
edit: That’s Josh Gibson, not Bob Gibson at #9
I voted for Paige and Gibson. The basis for their inclusion lies solely on an extended discussion with a friend who first introduced me to Bill James. So yes, a strong dose of romanticism and hyperbole was included.
Finally, I’ve always wondered about Jackie Robinson. I know he was a great athlete, but when we discuss his place in baseball history it is always as the man who broke the color barrier. But how good was he? Just taking a look at some stats, he seems very impressive, but the 10 season he played was after he turned 28. He looks to have been a threat on the base paths, a versatile defender, and a high average hitter who hit doubles. Can anyone shed any more light on 42?
Keith, Julian Tavarez would like to join your anti-Nationals bias club.
Tavarez on signing with the Nationals
“Why did I sign with the Nationals?” Tavárez said on Sunday. “When you go to a club at 4 in the morning, and you’re just waiting, waiting, a 600-pounder looks like J-Lo. And to me this is Jennifer Lopez right here. It’s 4 in the morning. Too much to drink. So, Nationals: Jennifer Lopez to me.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/15/AR2009031501580.html?sub=AR
Chuck, thats fantastic. So Tavarez is basically saying he went “hogging,” right?
Hey Klaw,
Quick side question — any prospects worth checking out in the Cal Ripken, Sr. league this summer? I’m having a hard time finding much info on the ‘net about 2010+ prospects.
Thanks, you’re the man.
So who would your considered and deliberate 10 be, Keith? You’ve said Mays for Young and probably Morgan for Hornsby – do Schmidt and Bench make it in as well, and who would you bump out?
I included Robinson on my list, even though I probably wouldn’t consider him to be one of the ten greatest players ever. What he went through, and what that ordeal signified for baseball and for America, put him in the pantheon, even though his numbers as a player probably aren’t great enough to merit inclusion.
Another twist to put on this is to do it best (or two-deep) position by position. It’s been noted that third base is criminally underrepresented in the Coop, and I think that’s because people expect offensive production comparable to the other corner spots. If Fangraphs’ positional adjustments are to be believed, the defensive value of an average third baseman is equivalent to that of an average second baseman or centerfielder. Anyway, position by position takes that bias out.
I don’t know about Spahn, Mr. Law. That K rate is underwhelming (though that walk rate is good). Couple that with an ERA+ of “only” 118, and I have a hard time calling Spahn one of the greatest pitchers post-1947.
He’s also 1073 PRAR. He compares well to the other “superlong” career guys like Ryan, Carlton and Niekro, guys who had their averages dragged down by their longevity. Admittedly, I could have forgotten to check somebody, but among post-1947 pitchers, only Clemens and Maddux had higher PRARs, and Seaver is the only other HOF-eligible pitcher to even crack 100 WAR. Let’s given Spahn his due.
Actually, Spahn’s WAR was more like 94.77 (for those of us who like to use a reasonable “replacement-level” baseline), which is still pretty good but pales in comparison to Clemens, Maddux, and Seaver. He does, however, match up pretty well with Johnson (through 2006), Niekro, Perry, and Blyleven.
Curious, where are you getting that WAR, and what’s unreasonable about BP’s replacement level baseline in its “Adjusted for All-time” stats? Not being belligerent, genuinely unsure.
I do feel it’s unfair to hold K-rates against him, though. Strikeouts simply weren’t as prevalent at the time. Prior to 1976, Walter Johnson was the only member of the 3000K club. Keith did say he was the best pitcher between 1947 and Greg Maddux. I think if you wanted to say it was Seaver/Spahn instead of Spahn/Seaver, nobody’s going to get their panties in a bunch.
I included Jackie Robinson on my amended ballot, because the exercise was not to list the 10 best players of all-time, it was to list the top ten hall of famers of all-time. Since Robinson is easily one of the top ten most important players of all time (and can easily be defended as the most important), I felt he had to be on the list, even if he wasn’t one of the ten best players ever.
Keith, you probably already heard this but SDSU announced that Strasburg’s next start has been pushed from Thursday to Friday. I know you were planning on attending…
FQ:
Robinson was, in addition to being versatile, an exceptional defender, according to all the data we have. Bill James listed him as an A+ defender overall, and he was excellent at 2B and had the best rates ever at 3B according to James’ measures. He was also, anecdotally, incredibly disruptive on the basepaths. He certainly was cited as a distraction for pitchers more than probably anyone other than Ty Cobb and Rickey!. I don’t know how much value that actually had,
So you had a guy who, at his peak from 1949-53, was top 5 OPS+ three times and top 10 another two years, and top 3 in OBP every one of those years. This while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at premium and semi-premium defensive positions, and providing extra baserunning value. In retrospect, it’s almost surprising he didn’t win more than one MVP; he certainly had a good case in 1952 as well, and his 1951 would be MVP-worthy in most years.
I was apparently the only person with Ryan and Ripken on my ballot. Big winner?
Kevin –
I got my WAR from the article I linked in my name up above.
BP’s r-level for WARP is simply too low (or at least they were…. I think Clay’s raising his replacement level for the RARP/WARP’s but that’s a lot of work and much of it isn’t done yet). An explanation of why their replacement level is too low can be found linked on my name on this comment.
And while it’s true that strikeouts weren’t as numerous during the better part of Spahn’s career, his strikeout rates look pedestrian to other pitchers of his time. I’m not saying that he’s overrated or anything, just that he’s inferior to both Seaver and Clemens.