It seems awfully hard to justify leaving Morneau (who actually had a pretty solid case until this last week or so) out of the top 10. Behind Longoria and Roberts? Yikes. It’s pretty easy to make the writers look dumb…seems like you’re trying a little too hard there.
Nice picks Keith, but I would have Alexei Ramirez’d the 3rd and 4th Alexei Ramirez’s. I don’t know how you could Alexei Ramirez him out of your top Alexei Ramirez. He just hit a huge Alexei Ramirez to put the White Sox up by Alexei Ramirez.
Seeing 4 Mets on your theoretical MVP voting got me thinking…
As a Mets fan and Manhattanite (Dinosaur BBQ does, in fact, suck), I’m in the unfortunate position of being unable to avoid the incredibly reactionary media members (read: a certain hefty talk-show host with a certain afternoon drive gig on NY’s biggest sports station…who could I be talking about?) calling for the mandatory break-up of the Mets’ “core” — Reyes, Wright, Beltran — because, of course, the Mets’ failure was all their fault (“5 runs all weekend!!!!”…”they have no heart”…”lack of leadership!!”…blah blah blah).
Please, please, please tell me that Omar (and his braintrust/whoever in the ops department is in charge of this stuff) is intelligent enough to see this “core” as part of the solution and not the problem.
I guess, ultimately, my greater worry with New York teams is always this: sometimes I feel like the media force here is SO powerful, SO pervasive, and SO overwhelming that these idiotic remedies like “shaking things up” or “trading Wright for Holliday to get tougher mentally” actually gains enough steam among the masses that it can actually force an intelligent GM (which I think Omar is) to make an otherwise illogical, ridiculous, and unintelligent move like “trading Reyes for Tejada and Carlos Lee” (not that Ed Wade would ever be shrewd enough to accept an offer like that)
I was about to wonder why there was no Geovany Soto love in the NL MVP list…but I can’t decide who gets bumped. That said, how can Soto not have big value? Premium offense from a poor offensive position, good defense, and a league minumum contract = value
From the numbers I’ve looked at, Sizemore and Pedroia are almost identical offensively. Is Sizemore’s defense that much better? I’m not necessarily saying Pedroia should have won or even been ahead of Sizemore, but I’m surprised by how far apart they were. They had similar offensive numbers at premier defensive positions and, from what I understand, both excel defensively. Youkilis had better overall offensive numbers, but at a less demanding defensive position, albeit one I understand he played well at, as well. Mauer had a different skill set, but no less impressive a season offensively and defensively at the most demanding position. I guess I’m just curious how you ferreted it all out, when it was all so jumbled. Not criticizing or questioning even, just trying to better understand your thought process.
I really don’t do these to make BBRAA voters look bad. Most of them do that all by themselves. I just pick the players whose seasons looked the most valuable to me, using VORP, various measures of defense as well as my own scouting takes on fielding, and considerations of context that may not be captured by measurements.
Jeff, Soto would have fit in well at the end … I really felt strongly about Beltran on that list. His defense is outstanding.
adam, I don’t think Omar listens to the media at all, and I feel pretty confident none of the big four will be traded. At last check, he was a big, big Reyes supporter.
andrew, Sizemore’s overall offense from a CF + his defense, which took a big step forward this year, makes him the MVP.
Brian, I hope that answered your question along the way.
It is getting hard to sort the baiting comments from some of the clowns’. Was the guy confused about Keith giving his view not trying to predict what the BBRAA would do?
If that was baiting not a genuine loon I will donate my $5 if they take foreign credit cards.
Should the Mets consider releasing Delgado (they have the option?) to go after Teixeira or someone?
brianjkoscuiszka,
One thing to remember about Youk is not only did he play excellent defense at first base, but he also played a significant number of innings at third and was very good defensively there as well (he would have been fourth in the league in RZR if he had enough innings to qualify.)
Over at camdenchat.com we’ve been kinda desultorily arguing who the O’s MVP was. The debate has mostly centered on Huff vs. Markakis, with the basic parameters being (pretty obviously) that Huff had the most power and Nicky had the best OBP and a defensive contribution. Huff wins in VORP, of course, but is below average on defense. Nick plays a fairly easy position well.
Now, you obviously think we should’ve been considering Roberts. We all love Roberts, obviously. He’s a doubles machine, a good basestealer, and great at getting on. That said, is his defense that good this year that you would put him that high in the AL? I never knew he was considered that good a defensive player. I’d appreciate your insight.
I know the NL Cy Young race is something like a four-way tie, and I would have no problem with Santana winning it, but I’m pretty certain Lincecum was better. You touched on all the major points, but didn’t address the fielding and context independent stats.
1. Lincecum had a tRA of 2.97 and tRA+ of 157, compared to Santana’s 3.89 and 120.
2. Lincecum had an xFIP of 3.37 to Santana’s 3.84.
3. Lincecum never got to pitch against the Giants, while Santana never had to pitch against the Mets.
Snarky last point aside, the underlying fundamentals show that Santana was much luckier and benefited from much more defensive help than Lincecum.
Thanks again for a fantastic article, and mega-stat-geekiness aside, I have no problem with any of Lincecum, Santana, Webb, or Lidge winning the award. 🙂
Jeremy, can you hit me with a link to the idea and methodology behind tRA? I’ve seen the numbers mentioned a couple of times now, but I don’t know who came up with it or what exactly it is including.
Not that is should factor into voting at all, but how impressive was Santana’s second half when you consider that he basically gave up on his slider around June and almost exclusively went fastball/change from then on?
And Keith, where do you think Lidge ranks in the Cy Young discussion? I know Neyer thinks he’s a rare case where a closer’s performance might be undervalued but I have a hard time believing he should get anything more than a few third or fourth place votes when Santana and Lincecum give you the years that they did.
I heard on Mike & Mike today that some website that tracks these sorts of things had Keith Law’s pre-season baseball picks (division winners and wild cards) as tops among 50 so-called experts in terms of accuracy of predictions.
Mike Greenberg was 50th. Golic was tied for 8th.
Congrats, Keith!
(and if anyone can find a link to those rankings, please post it)
stixx23- if you look back a few posts I commented with a link to a very similar study that was well done. Keith finished just behind Rob Neyer. It was on the one that mentioned food, and banking I believe.
I agreed with all the picks, except I prefer Mauer for AL MVP.
Why do you think Hanley doesn’t get mentioned. I thought he was very clearly the second best player behind Pujols. Is it that nobody paid attention to teh Marlins that much, or just because he is young. He actually had a better season this year than last because of the huge defensive jump.
Since these awards are in recognition of what has player HAS ALREADY done and not what a player may or may not do in the future, I was curious how much weight you give to WPA, which does factor in how well a player has performed in high leverage situations throughout the year (“clutchness”)
While I do not mean to argue that “clutchness” is a repeatable skill, it is obvious that throughout the year some players, for whatever reason, do perform better in clutch situation (i.e. David Ortiz in 2005). As these awards are meant to reward past performance, wouldn’t a measure like WPA be a valueable tool when determining how to rank the candidates?
I’m curios as to why Youkilis over Pedroia? Pedroia has a VORP about 13% higher. Are you valueing Youkilis defense at 1b that much over Pedroia’s at 2B?
If you flipped those two I think you nailed as far as how the voting should go.
Here are a few names I am interested in hearing your takes on- mostly where you thought they fit in the MVP debates.
1- Chipper- Did injuries hold him back from placing higher. I thought he was more “valuable” to his team than Berkman.
2- McCann- As much cred. and pub. as Soto gets it baffles me that Brian gets so little for 2008.
3- Markakis- I think he is a stud. I wish he was a better basestealer and I know he doesn’t play a premium position, but he does a lot really well.
4- Aramis- Just wondering. There are a lot of other folks who seem to think he is the next thing since . . .
Matt – After hearing and reading some comments on Hanley, I think the reason that he isn’t seriously considered (other than playing for Florida) is that he was a pretty bad fielder 2 years ago and that is now his reputation. He still had over 20 errors, so he must still be pretty bad, right? I think that’s the type of quick analysis we see these days from MSM types.
I get what you’re saying, but there were more articles about him last year than this, and from what I see he is much better this year. It probably has to do with the defensive reputation, and Florida.
Just kind of interesting, if they push into the last week instead of fading earlier does he get major consideration? Ya know?
Alexei Ramirez just heartandsoul’d a ball out of the park for a clutch grand slam. I think he should be the AL ROY.
What’s the URL for Jimmy Fund donations?
It seems awfully hard to justify leaving Morneau (who actually had a pretty solid case until this last week or so) out of the top 10. Behind Longoria and Roberts? Yikes. It’s pretty easy to make the writers look dumb…seems like you’re trying a little too hard there.
Keith, I’m just wondering why you chose Grady Sizemore as the AL MVP? I mean, he has a Slugging % just barely over 500.
Nice picks Keith, but I would have Alexei Ramirez’d the 3rd and 4th Alexei Ramirez’s. I don’t know how you could Alexei Ramirez him out of your top Alexei Ramirez. He just hit a huge Alexei Ramirez to put the White Sox up by Alexei Ramirez.
Keith,
Seeing 4 Mets on your theoretical MVP voting got me thinking…
As a Mets fan and Manhattanite (Dinosaur BBQ does, in fact, suck), I’m in the unfortunate position of being unable to avoid the incredibly reactionary media members (read: a certain hefty talk-show host with a certain afternoon drive gig on NY’s biggest sports station…who could I be talking about?) calling for the mandatory break-up of the Mets’ “core” — Reyes, Wright, Beltran — because, of course, the Mets’ failure was all their fault (“5 runs all weekend!!!!”…”they have no heart”…”lack of leadership!!”…blah blah blah).
Please, please, please tell me that Omar (and his braintrust/whoever in the ops department is in charge of this stuff) is intelligent enough to see this “core” as part of the solution and not the problem.
I guess, ultimately, my greater worry with New York teams is always this: sometimes I feel like the media force here is SO powerful, SO pervasive, and SO overwhelming that these idiotic remedies like “shaking things up” or “trading Wright for Holliday to get tougher mentally” actually gains enough steam among the masses that it can actually force an intelligent GM (which I think Omar is) to make an otherwise illogical, ridiculous, and unintelligent move like “trading Reyes for Tejada and Carlos Lee” (not that Ed Wade would ever be shrewd enough to accept an offer like that)
I was about to wonder why there was no Geovany Soto love in the NL MVP list…but I can’t decide who gets bumped. That said, how can Soto not have big value? Premium offense from a poor offensive position, good defense, and a league minumum contract = value
From the numbers I’ve looked at, Sizemore and Pedroia are almost identical offensively. Is Sizemore’s defense that much better? I’m not necessarily saying Pedroia should have won or even been ahead of Sizemore, but I’m surprised by how far apart they were. They had similar offensive numbers at premier defensive positions and, from what I understand, both excel defensively. Youkilis had better overall offensive numbers, but at a less demanding defensive position, albeit one I understand he played well at, as well. Mauer had a different skill set, but no less impressive a season offensively and defensively at the most demanding position. I guess I’m just curious how you ferreted it all out, when it was all so jumbled. Not criticizing or questioning even, just trying to better understand your thought process.
Jimmy Fund donations link.
I really don’t do these to make BBRAA voters look bad. Most of them do that all by themselves. I just pick the players whose seasons looked the most valuable to me, using VORP, various measures of defense as well as my own scouting takes on fielding, and considerations of context that may not be captured by measurements.
Jeff, Soto would have fit in well at the end … I really felt strongly about Beltran on that list. His defense is outstanding.
adam, I don’t think Omar listens to the media at all, and I feel pretty confident none of the big four will be traded. At last check, he was a big, big Reyes supporter.
andrew, Sizemore’s overall offense from a CF + his defense, which took a big step forward this year, makes him the MVP.
Brian, I hope that answered your question along the way.
Keith, do you look at RARP too?
It is getting hard to sort the baiting comments from some of the clowns’. Was the guy confused about Keith giving his view not trying to predict what the BBRAA would do?
If that was baiting not a genuine loon I will donate my $5 if they take foreign credit cards.
Should the Mets consider releasing Delgado (they have the option?) to go after Teixeira or someone?
Where will David Wright rank on next year’s MVP list, once the Mets “fix” him?
brianjkoscuiszka,
One thing to remember about Youk is not only did he play excellent defense at first base, but he also played a significant number of innings at third and was very good defensively there as well (he would have been fourth in the league in RZR if he had enough innings to qualify.)
Hey Keith,
Over at camdenchat.com we’ve been kinda desultorily arguing who the O’s MVP was. The debate has mostly centered on Huff vs. Markakis, with the basic parameters being (pretty obviously) that Huff had the most power and Nicky had the best OBP and a defensive contribution. Huff wins in VORP, of course, but is below average on defense. Nick plays a fairly easy position well.
Now, you obviously think we should’ve been considering Roberts. We all love Roberts, obviously. He’s a doubles machine, a good basestealer, and great at getting on. That said, is his defense that good this year that you would put him that high in the AL? I never knew he was considered that good a defensive player. I’d appreciate your insight.
Thanks.
Keith,
I know the NL Cy Young race is something like a four-way tie, and I would have no problem with Santana winning it, but I’m pretty certain Lincecum was better. You touched on all the major points, but didn’t address the fielding and context independent stats.
1. Lincecum had a tRA of 2.97 and tRA+ of 157, compared to Santana’s 3.89 and 120.
2. Lincecum had an xFIP of 3.37 to Santana’s 3.84.
3. Lincecum never got to pitch against the Giants, while Santana never had to pitch against the Mets.
Snarky last point aside, the underlying fundamentals show that Santana was much luckier and benefited from much more defensive help than Lincecum.
Thanks again for a fantastic article, and mega-stat-geekiness aside, I have no problem with any of Lincecum, Santana, Webb, or Lidge winning the award. 🙂
Jeremy, can you hit me with a link to the idea and methodology behind tRA? I’ve seen the numbers mentioned a couple of times now, but I don’t know who came up with it or what exactly it is including.
Not that is should factor into voting at all, but how impressive was Santana’s second half when you consider that he basically gave up on his slider around June and almost exclusively went fastball/change from then on?
And Keith, where do you think Lidge ranks in the Cy Young discussion? I know Neyer thinks he’s a rare case where a closer’s performance might be undervalued but I have a hard time believing he should get anything more than a few third or fourth place votes when Santana and Lincecum give you the years that they did.
I heard on Mike & Mike today that some website that tracks these sorts of things had Keith Law’s pre-season baseball picks (division winners and wild cards) as tops among 50 so-called experts in terms of accuracy of predictions.
Mike Greenberg was 50th. Golic was tied for 8th.
Congrats, Keith!
(and if anyone can find a link to those rankings, please post it)
stixx23- if you look back a few posts I commented with a link to a very similar study that was well done. Keith finished just behind Rob Neyer. It was on the one that mentioned food, and banking I believe.
I agreed with all the picks, except I prefer Mauer for AL MVP.
Why do you think Hanley doesn’t get mentioned. I thought he was very clearly the second best player behind Pujols. Is it that nobody paid attention to teh Marlins that much, or just because he is young. He actually had a better season this year than last because of the huge defensive jump.
Keith,
Since these awards are in recognition of what has player HAS ALREADY done and not what a player may or may not do in the future, I was curious how much weight you give to WPA, which does factor in how well a player has performed in high leverage situations throughout the year (“clutchness”)
While I do not mean to argue that “clutchness” is a repeatable skill, it is obvious that throughout the year some players, for whatever reason, do perform better in clutch situation (i.e. David Ortiz in 2005). As these awards are meant to reward past performance, wouldn’t a measure like WPA be a valueable tool when determining how to rank the candidates?
Keith,
I’m curios as to why Youkilis over Pedroia? Pedroia has a VORP about 13% higher. Are you valueing Youkilis defense at 1b that much over Pedroia’s at 2B?
If you flipped those two I think you nailed as far as how the voting should go.
-Brian
Here are a few names I am interested in hearing your takes on- mostly where you thought they fit in the MVP debates.
1- Chipper- Did injuries hold him back from placing higher. I thought he was more “valuable” to his team than Berkman.
2- McCann- As much cred. and pub. as Soto gets it baffles me that Brian gets so little for 2008.
3- Markakis- I think he is a stud. I wish he was a better basestealer and I know he doesn’t play a premium position, but he does a lot really well.
4- Aramis- Just wondering. There are a lot of other folks who seem to think he is the next thing since . . .
Thanks in advance.
Matt – After hearing and reading some comments on Hanley, I think the reason that he isn’t seriously considered (other than playing for Florida) is that he was a pretty bad fielder 2 years ago and that is now his reputation. He still had over 20 errors, so he must still be pretty bad, right? I think that’s the type of quick analysis we see these days from MSM types.
Eli,
I get what you’re saying, but there were more articles about him last year than this, and from what I see he is much better this year. It probably has to do with the defensive reputation, and Florida.
Just kind of interesting, if they push into the last week instead of fading earlier does he get major consideration? Ya know?
Jon Heyman proves that asinine awards picks are not strictly the domain of the BBRAA
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/09/30/scoop.awards/index.html