I’ll be on ESPNEWS today at 3:40 pm EDT. Unfortunately, they changed my hit time to 3:20 pm but did not tell me about the change until it was too late for me to reach the studio, so no TV for me today.
I’ll also be St. Louis 1380 AM today sometime in the 4 o’clock hour CDT with Bernie and Randy (4:20 or 4:40, probably), and then on the ESPN St. Louis affiliate (1190) on Tuesday at 11:30 am CDT.
I’m also going to tape a segment for the evening show on ESPN 710 in Los Angeles, although I don’t know when it will air within the show.
Keith- I feel an untold story this year surrounds Jimmy Rollins. Last year I thought he was a ridiculous MVP. This year Phillies fans seem surprised that he has returned to his career norms, 100 OPS+ or less. Not just average offensively, but often below average.
Could you take a moment sometime to twist the nail a bit for me? Really drive in that 07 was not only an anomaly, but wasn’t even that good?
If you limit the candidates to players on playoff teams, Rollins was a defensible pick in 2007. Not clearly the best, but there is a logical argument to be made.
However,if you expand the candidates to include players from non-playoff teams, Wright and Pujols were better players last year (maybe Hanley Ramirez too, depending on what defensive metrics you look at).
Thats just crazy. Rollins wasn’t even the best player on his own team, forget about on playoff teams.
Players on Playoff teams that were offensively better:
Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
Matt Holliday
Prince Fielder
Alfonso Soriano
Aramis Ramirez
Brad Hawpe
The defense argument is bogus. He was 7th in range factor and 3rd in FP% in the NL. He was a very solid slightly above average player that ran his mouth off.
We haven’t even discussed pitchers who probably should be considered as well.
Ryan Howard was not better offensively than Rollins, if you add context for position.
2007 VORP (measure of offensive production relative to the peers at your position:
Rollins: 66.1
Howard: 53.6
In other words, having a SS hit .296/.344/.531 with 41 SBs at an 87% success rate is more valuable than getting a 268/.392/.584 from a 1st baseman, all other things being equal. Plus Rollins had a good glove, Howard does not. At all.
Utley was fantastic, but he also missed a month. It’s not clear-cut who was more valuable to the Phillies in 2007; you could argue it both ways.
Holliday was better than Rollins at the plate, even adjusted for positional context. Both rated statistically as above average for their position. Scouts are not as kind to Holliday’s D (Keith, I believe, would take Rollins’ D over Holliday’s in a heartbeat), and I would argue that good D at SS is more valuable to a club than good D at left, given the action each position sees.
Again, I’m not saying Rollins is clearly better, but there is a defensible argument to be made.
Prince Fielder did not make the playoffs. i would argue Rollins was more valuable anyway, for the reasons stated above for Howard.
Soriano over Rollins is a joke. He hit .299/.337/.560, almost the same as Rollins. Would you rather have a LF hit like that, or a SS? Also, see Chase Utley. Soriano only played in 135 games. Soriano over Rollins would have been indefensible.
Same goes for Ramirez for almost exactly the same reasons. Hawpe too.
So yeah, his two primary opponents amongst playoff teams would have been Utley and Holliday. I can see the case for either over Rollins, but I can see the case for Rollins over either of them.
He was not just a slightly above average player in 2007; he was one of the most valuable players in the National League.
Lets park adjust Hawpe, Ramirez, Soriano and Rollins:
OPS+
Hawpe 129.
A. Ramirez 129.
Soriano 127.
Rollins 118.
Sorry but Rollins was not even close to those three offensively. Park adjust his stats and he is nothing really special.
My point is, I would rather have a 118 at shortstop than a 129 in an outfield corner.
Hitters with above average OPS+ in LF or RF are on every team in baseball.
Hitters 16% better than league average at shortstop in 2007 are RARE.
You cannot run a flat comparison of a LF, RF, or 3B to a SS when trying to assess offensive value. It leads to ridiculous conclusions. Glenallen Hill has the same career OPS+ as Cal Ripken (112). But it would be absurd to suggest that they have comparable offensive value, because Cal was so far ahead of his peers at his position, and Glenallen HIll was a pedestiran player.
Sorry I know this is not usually the place for baseball questions, but I thought I would give it a try.If the Sox decline the option on Manny do they still have the option to offer arbitration in order too get the draft picks and if so would the Sox offer it or would they fear no other team will pony up the cash and he might take the arbitration offer.Thanks Keith LOVE the work you do.
Put another way, Soriano and Rollins have both spent time on the DL this year.
When Soriano got hurt, they put in Mark DeRosa, who has put up a 107 OPS+. A typical 4th OF on any team in the league should at least give you an OPS+ in the 90s.
When Rollins himself went down this year, he was replaced by Eric Bruntlett. .234/.318 /.325. 67 OPS+. And he hasn’t nearly been the worst replacement SS this year. Look up Brian Bixler and Brian Bocock, both of whom were called to duty when starters got hurt, and both put up OPS+ below 20!
So having a player with a 118 OPS+ at SS is inherently more valuable than a 128 or 129 in LF, because the dropoff is far more severe.
Chris, yes the Sox can do that. Assuming they do not trade him, that is probably what they will do.
Thanks Bob, wasn’t sure if since they refuse the team option that cancels the draft pick compensation.
Keith, is your four-letter chat on a regular schedule?
Yes, most Thursdays at 1 pm. I’ll be doing one on the 31st, then not on the 7th, then back on the 14th.
Keith,
It’s a good thing for the Yankees that the Washburn talks have stalled, right? I can’t see him being more than another over-priced, slightly-better-than-league average pitcher. Plus, how many starts would he get before they get Wang back? 4? Maybe 5? And would he really add a ton of value over Rasner?