TV and radio.

The Rays have scheduled a 1pm press conference today for a “major announcement.” Marc Topkin of the St. Pete Times wrote in his blog that he believes it’s player-related, and he speculated that it might be the announcement of a long-term deal for Evan Longoria.

Any ideas? Could it be the signing of Barry Bonds?

It’s about Evan Longoria. Keith, what do you make of signing a guy (someone you love, I know) who’s only played six games to a long-term deal? What’s the advantage to the Rays here? Do they think he’s going to have such a monster year in ’08 that signing him long-term after this year or ’09 would have been cost-prohibitive? Seems like they might as well have gotten a few “free” years out of him before they signed him.

Well, in any case, it’s great that the Rays are keeping their young stars and spending money. It’s great for baseball and great for more balance in the AL East. If they could ever get their starting pitching healthy, the Rays would be a dangerous team.

I’m pretty sure I read that keeping him in the minors for 11 extra days bought the Rays an extra year of service time. If that’s true, then I don’t think it’s silly at all…

Baileywalk and Chris, first of all, they could not know that they would definitely sign him to a long term deal. Secondly, by getting an extra year of service time, they improve their negotiating position. Third, if you look at the contract, in several of the years the amount he makes depends on what his arbitration status would have been (i.e. he could make $1 or $2 million more that season based on his service time). Finally, the expected difference in their record due to sending him back to the minors for such a short time is probably less than a game. Overall, I think it was a pretty logical move.

I agree that it could shake up baseball (though this is just the next step in the recent trend); I also think it’s a terrific deal for the Rays. First of all, Longoria is more highly regarded than both Young and Tulo were. Secondly, even if he flops, they’re only on the hook for about $20 million over 6 years, which is easily absorbable even by the lowest revenue teams (plus they’ll have insurance, which shouldn’t be too costly for this sort of contract). If he reaches his potential, they could end up paying him about two-thirds, possibly even half of his market value over the life of the contract, when the option years are thrown in. Think about it – if an All-Star third basemen (and everyone agrees he’s easily got that potential) went on the market at age 28, the absolute minimum he’d get (not even adjusting for inflation over the next 6 years) would be $75 million over 5 years; the Rays have options that amount to $33 million over 3 years.

baileywalk–

I think you’re missing the point here. Longoria may be unproven (and Friedman’s said that he would have inked the deal even if Aybar hadn’t gotten hurt and Longoria was still in the minors), but the risk for TB is extremely low compared to the upside. They’re only on the hook for $17.5MM, which is only a few million more than he’d get altogether with arb even if he’s below average. And they get a chance to get his first three free agency years at ~$9MM per, which would be WAAAY below market even if he’s only average. They’ve locked up all his prime years without putting much on the line. Is there some risk? Of course, but really only if he’s horribly injured. Even if he turns into Eric Hinske, which is probably his downside, they’ll only have wasted a few million. Over on BTF, the argument is almost completely about whether Longoria sold himself out for too little, and I think that’s what it should be about.

Also, all Chris Young has proved is that he’s capable of hitting homeruns and generally sucking. His extension is almost as much about scouting reports as Longo’s is.