Phil Sheridan: Phils should give Howard what he wants
Sheridan’s entire argument is as follows:
* The Phillies should lose their arbitration hearing with Ryan Howard on purpose, because…
* Fans will like it
* It will improve their relationship with Howard
I hate to trot out the old appeal to authority, but the truth is these are the words of someone who’s never worked in a baseball front office and doesn’t understand how the business works. Anyway, let’s get at the meat of his “argument:”
They win on public perception. You could do a master’s thesis in sociology on why so many sports fans get upset about the idea that a player like Howard – or Brian Westbrook, to cite another recent example – might be underpaid. Most fans, after all, could work a lifetime without earning what Howard will earn for playing baseball this year – even if he loses the hearing.
I have news for Mr. Sheridan: What fans think doesn’t matter. A GM who gives a shit what his fans think about a player’s salary is going to be out of work in fairly short order. What matters is winning. If the team wins, the fans don’t care how it came about. And paying a player more than you are required to pay him pushes you further from winning, not closer. So if you want to make the fans happy, beat Ryan Howard in arbitration and take the $3 million saved and try to put it towards the pitching problem.
Best of all, they can change the entire dynamic of their relationship with the best young power hitter they’ve ever had. Until now, for reasons ranging from the presence of Jim Thome to the Phillies’ own apparent inability to recognize Howard’s potential, they have paid very little for a lot of home runs, a rookie-of-the-year season, and an MVP season.
Yeah, again, this is what someone says when he doesn’t understand how the business works. He is correct that Howard’s pay did not match his performance during the last three years. So what? That’s the system. And there is absolutely ZERO evidence (not that Sheridan concerns himself with evidence here – the entire article is fluff) that overpaying a player at some point during his pre-arb or arb years buys you anything down the road. It doesn’t get the team a hometown discount on a long-term deal. It doesn’t make the player less likely to leave as a free agent. It just transfers money from the player budget to one player. The Cardinals gave Albert Pujols $900K in his last pre-arb year, and he still held their feet to the fire on a long-term deal twelve months later.
But here’s the worst part of all, the part that Sheridan doesn’t mention when he says, “Lose tomorrow and the Phillies make their fans happy, appease a superstar player, and set themselves up for a better relationship with him for years – all for $3 million.”
This just shows that he doesn’t get the system, because the cost is far more than $3 million.
You see, arbitration isn’t just about comparables, but it’s also about raises. If the Phillies lose their case against Howard – and they might lose anyway – then the baseline for his arbitration case next year becomes $10 million, rather than $7 million. This works against the Phillies simply because players always get raises in arbitration, even if they have awful years. (The only exceptions I know of are players who missed entire seasons and received the same salaries in the subsequent years.) Howard’s agent (Casey Close of CAA) will also be able to argue for a higher raise by looking at the raises comparable players received in percentage terms. For example, Alfonso Soriano received a 38% raise in his second year of arbitration eligibility. If Close argues for a 38% raise for Howard, then that’s $9.7 million if the Phillies win this year’s hearing but $13.8 million if the Phillies lose. The effect of a loss this year is cumulative.
No, losing an arbitration case on purpose is never a good idea, and I hope the Phillies put on a good show in a hearing where the cards are slightly stacked against them. Mr. Sheridan is going to have to show us at least one situation somewhere in baseball history where his idea didn’t come back to bite the team on the ass and leave it with a case of gangrene.
“What matters is winning. If the team wins, the fans don’t care how it came about.”
That is dead on. What is this idiot talking about? As a fan, I am more impressed if my team has a great player and manages to pay him relatively less not more. Any logical fan knows that extra money is vital for the squad. I don’t care how much these guys make, as long as it makes the team as whole, more competitive.
Btw, that quote by Keith may be exactly why barely any fans care about steroid use. Winning is the bottom line.
Could you make the counter argument that you should really try to screw him over in arbitration. This will make sure he is really motivated to get a fat free agent contract and prove you wrong (and therefore have to put up really big numbers for the next few years)? You could argue you are taking him out of his comfort zone and motivating him etc. etc.
I know that sounds stupid, but I enjoy counter-arguing ridiculous assertions with even more ridiculous ones, plus my idea is cheaper.
I’m a diehard Phillies fan. I pray they win the arbitration hearing, and I pray that they don’t give him a long term deal. Based on his comments, he feels he should be making A-Rod money now, which indicates that he and his representation don’t really understand the process, just like most of the fans who want to see him make more don’t understand the process. Howard is an old skills player, and when he starts to decline, it’s not going to be pretty. Take him to arbitration, get his best years out of him for below market value, and let him walk as a 31 year old free agent. If he wants to pout and see his numbers slip, it’s only going to hurt him when he becomes a free agent and hits the market.
Sorry RyHo, this is how it works.
And can we please sign Kyle Lohse now and make Adam Eaton or Jamie Moyer go away?
Bad Idea Jeans, nice.
Normally I wear protection, but then I thought, “When am I gonna make it back to Haiti?”
These are the kinds of articles that get written in the winter when there’s nothing else going on. Doesn’t excuse them, but at least explains them. I have a problem with the K-Rod articles as well. He says he’s leaving the Angels after 2008. First of all, who cares? Second of all, does anybody honestly think that how he feels today will be the same as he’ll feel 1 year from now? All that quote tells me is that whichever team offers him the most money after 2008 will be the team that he’ll sign with, whether it be the Angels or whomever. Otherwise it’s a pretty worthless quote.
Keith,
While you are on the subject of the Phillies, did you read Buster Olney’s column on Pat Burrell yesterday? I have much more respect for you as a “talent evaluator” than Buster’s unnamed sources, so what is your opinion? Is Burrell no better than a 6th or 7th hitter on a good team? Looking at the numbers this sure doesn’t seem to be the case.
Would the arbitration amount be less if the Phillies didn’t give him the 800-900K he got when he wasn’t arbitration eligible? You wrote an article about it sometime last year I believe.
I think you just went Ken Tremendous on his ass.
Along the same lines (fans will be happy no matter how the team wins), what do you make of the lack of interest in Barry Bonds (who did have the 3rd highest OPS in baseball last year). Obviously he has a myriad of issues, from health to legal problems to attitude, that drive down his value, but shouldn’t there be some team out there willing to shell out $7-10 million for him as a DH? The Rays spring to my mind – they have nothing to lose (no one expects them to contend this year, but their raw talent level means they may have an outside shot). Revunue sharing gives them plenty of money. Bonds in the past has transformed weak SF lineups into decent ones, and the TB lineup is hardly weak. And let’s be honest, in order to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees at several times their payroll, they’re going to have to take some risks. Plus, all he can do is help the attendance levels.
It is PURE SPECULATION on anyones part that states Howard wants AROD money, and won’t take less. His agent has been quoted in an interview last year that it was safe to say that they are looking for more money than what Chase received. That is the ONLY viable quote you will find—ALL ELSE IS SPECULATION, no matter how much you respect that reporter, blogger, professional journalist, casual fan’s opinion.
By the way that quote can be found here:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/features/263256.html
Its an even BIGGER assumption that the Phils are willing to match Pujols 7yr/$100mil, if they were I would ASSUME (since that is what is being done here)that they would JUMP at giving him a “measly” $10 million, considering that a “PUJOLS deal” would mean they are willing to give him an average of $14 mil a year.
If the Phils REALLY were offering Howard ANYTHING >$85mil, there would be some reference to it, but there isn’t. I welcome ANYONE to show it to me.
People talk like Howard is some scrub that still needs to prove himself to this organization.
2003-Single-A MVP
2004-Triple-A MVP
2005-ROY
2006-NL MVP
2007-StrikeOut King that still with injurues to start the season and a stint on the DL, nearly lead the NL in HR and RBI again (P.Fielder had 3 more HR in 44 more at bats, and M.Holiday beat him by 1 RBI in the “extra” game tacked on the Rockies season).
As for age and bodytype, he’s younger than Utley and durable enough to not get his hand broken during his “scrappy” playing (that barb is for those that place Chase as the player standard on the Phils).
I tire of Howard being spoken of like some bum that needs to be grateful for ANYTHING the Phils do for him. $7mil was a standard set 4 years ago, PUJOLS is GREAT, but not the UNBREAKABLE GOLD STANDARD to be followed from here to eternity (since $7mil is supposed to stay the record amount for FOREVER, no matter what). A guy w/a ROY and MVP and record setter for this team (more good than bad) deserves better consideration than what the Phils and a lot of fans are giving him.
Just for the record, this is where a lot of the “parroting” has come from.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/01/stark-ryan-howa.html
I TOTALLY respect Jayson Stark, but SPECULATION is SPECULATION.
Anyone Disagree???
Chris,
That argument doesn’t work. Per Keith’s blog. The object is winning games. Trying to “screw” Howard in arbitration by low-balling him will only increase the chances that you lose the arbitration case, and thus win less games during the season.
Quite right the argument doesn’t hold water. It is taking an extreme view without any evidence to back it up. I was just trying to make an equally ridiculous point, but the exact opposite! My subtle/shite humour is wasted on you lot.
Steve,
No one is calling Ryan a bum or saying he should be grateful the Phillies are willing to pay him $7M. The point is that the system is what it is – if I may use my second language, McNamee-ese. If they settle at a mutually acceptable number like $8.5M, everyone should be fine with it. If they go to arbitration, it is absolutely in the Phillies’ best interests to win and pay him less, not cave because they expect it to reflect favorably upon them in future negotiations. How did giving him the extra $500k last year work out? It sure doesn’t look like Ryan is giving them a break this year because they gave him more than they had to give him last year.
Jeff,
The Phillies are not trying to screw Howard in arbitration, they are either trying to pay him what they think he is worth or using $7M as a starting point to negotiate a reasonable price like $8.5M.
Hey can we quit it with the caps as points of emphasis, your emphasis should be apparent in your diction.
Also, Howard, while a great hitter does have body issues that make him a concern – just like people are concerned about Prince Fielder – and he doesn’t play a premium defensive position, like Utley. Utley is more valuable because of his combination of above average defense and optimal offensive production for the position.
Thank you Keith. Some of my fellow Phillies fans are idiots when it comes to this issue. Some fans just don’t understand the system and I really think you did a good job showing that this will also have an effect on the arbitration numbers in the next 3 years, not only this year.
Keith,
What do you mean by “show” regarding arbitration hearings? Can you illustrate the components of a hearing? Is there a fixed body of arbiters? Do representatives from the team and player know who the arbiter is beforehand? Is the player present for the arguments? Do hearings become heated “Law and Order” episodes? Finally, what is the overall attitude of the system from the perspectives of MLB and MLBPA?
Thanks,
Q
It has been announced that howard has won his arbitration case. Keith, as a phils fan, I agree with your post. Now that we know the verdict of this case, what are your thoughts about the phils offering howard a multi-year deal? Prior to this hearing I was against a long term deal (I agree with James’ post), but now that his arbitration number will begin at $10 million plus, doesn’t it make sense to offer a 4 or 5 year deal?
I understand that power is king in baseball, but for howard to make more than utley is a crime. Howard is one dimensional (he hits for power)…Utley contributes in all facets of the game.
Wasn’t $7 million foolishly low by the Phillies? I realize that it was with a small amount more service time, but don’t they have to top Miguel Cabrera’s $7.4 million, given that Howard has won an MVP and has such impressive counting stats for the arbitration board to ooh and ah at? If the Phils had offered $8 million, maybe even $7.5 million, I find it hard to believe they would have lost, given how far above previous precedent Howard’s $10 million figure was.
Keith, I completely agree with 99% of what you say. And I completely agree that it normally doesn’t matter what the fans think, but in this situation it does more than you think. I don’t know how much you know about Philly but the general consensus here is that the Phillies are very cheap. This city has lost a ton of superstars and never received anything in return. The fans are very defensive about situations like this and them letting Ryan Howard “get away” (even if it is in 3 years) will directly effect the money they bring in. Again, like I said I agree with you, and don’t think they should lose on purpose, I just wanted to let you know the dynamic in Philly is different than most cities. Much more miserable.
steve,
i would consider chase utley much more durable than ryan howard. ryan howard came to camp in 2007 out of shape and then never recovered and ended up with a pulled hamstring. chase utley took a wild fastball off the back of his hand. completely freak injury. that in no way makes him less durable than ryan howard. and NO fans consider him a bum by any means. you are wrong about everything you said except for the stats you laid out.