I often check out good team-specific blogs after a big trade or signing to get a sense of what intelligent fans think of a deal, although I have to say I knew what I’d get when I went to USSMariner.com after the Bedard trade. (They’re not exactly big Keith Law fans over there, but for my money it’s one of the smartest communities out there on a team-specific blog, even if they fail to recognize my greatness.) But here’s one comment that’s worth spreading:
Teej Says:
Speaking of PECOTA, I just looked again and Adam Jones had the highest projected VORP on the team for ‘08. (Well, second, if you assume that PECOTA is wrong about Ichiro for the millionth time.) That’s incredibly depressing. We are going to struggle to score runs.
If PECOTA has Jones as the leading VORPer on the 2008 M’s, I think it’s a reasonable guess that he would have finished in the top 3 on the club. This implies that 1) Jones is really freaking good, 2) the 2008 Mariner offense is going to suck, or 3) both, which would mean I should have been even more critical of the deal than I was.
I’m really interested in seeing the PECOTA player cards this year and it’s a bummer that they are so late in coming. I’m trying to reconcile how Adam Jones can have an upside score of 198.3 versus 9.0 for Fukudome.
I had been wondering what losing Jones would do to their offense. As an O’s fan I’m thrilled, but Bavasi makes it seem like they gave up nothing of consequence from their current roster to get Bedard, when they may have actually damaged their team overall with the loss of Jones and Sherill. For me this is a pretty one-sided deal.
As a lifelong Mariners fan, I have been disgusted by nearly every move Bavasi has made over the last couple of seasons. He seems intent on screwing over the future of the franchise, to the point that the Mariners are now getting taken advantage by the freaking Orioles front office (no disrespect to McPhail intended, just to Angelos). Also Keith, as an avid reader of USSMariner, I wanted to let you know that I personally think that you are one of the brightest and refreshing voices in the baseball community. Even if my fellow USSMariner comrades do not see your greatness. Keep up the great work as long as you can.
Hopefully this trade doesn’t usurp the Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb deal as the greatest catastrophe in franchise history.
Then again, the M’s turned down offers for Ryan Anderson, Clint Nageotte, and Travis Blackley, and look how far that got them. I remain vehemently skeptical of any touted pitcher in their organization not named Felix Hernandez.
Naveed, Fukudome is 30 years old, perhaps that has a lot to do with his lack of upside. Personally, I feel that if this is all Hendry ends up doing this winter to improve the club then they are in trouble. Maybe not in the division since it is so lousy, but in the playoffs. As for the trade, I think it’s good for both teams. The difference is one team is looking short-term and the other long-term.
Keith:
If your the cubs do you give up Pie in the Roberts trade? I know Fuld is an unknown commodity and they probably need a back up plan, but I dont know as though Pie is going to suddenly get it. His numbers in Winter League were no different than other years which woudl lead me to believe he hasnt improved any from last year. I mean .225 with some good defense but a ton of Ks. I don’t mind trading that for Roberts, even if we replace Pie with Fuld (or Cedeno as rumored) how much worse would they hit?
Keith, if this were a straight-up Bedard for Jones deal, would you have done it as the Mariners? Also, how much is your analysis of this deal based on the fact that the Mariners are using a win-now strategy despite not being in a good position to win now. In other words, if, for example, an NL West team (besides the Giants) had made a similar deal, would it be reasonable? Overpaying a bit but defensible? Still foolish? Thanks.
Todd: I probably would, although I’d say Pie is a great return for the O’s on Roberts. The Cubs have a great chance to win now, and if they get Roberts, they might be the best or second-best team in the NL. That’s a big marginal gain.
Preston: No, my strategy if I was the M’s GM would have been the opposite – pile on more mediocre prospects and try to keep Jones and probably Triunfel.