Note that as of Monday, 12/31, I’ve moved the updated counts to a new thread.
UPDATED: Monday, 12/31, 10:45 am EST.
At this point, with at least 10% of the total ballots counted, I feel pretty comfortable calling Gossage’s election. It’s too soon for me to call Blyleven, Dawson, or Rice either way.
I’ve found or received 75 Hall of Fame ballots from official voters so far, and tallied up the results:
| TOTAL | 75 | Pct |
| Gossage | 68 | 91% |
| Blyleven | 52 | 69% |
| Dawson | 52 | 69% |
| Rice | 51 | 68% |
| Morris | 37 | 49% |
| Raines | 32 | 43% |
| McGwire | 20 | 27% |
| Smith | 21 | 28% |
| Trammell | 14 | 19% |
| John | 14 | 19% |
| Concepcion | 14 | 19% |
| Murphy | 11 | 15% |
| Parker | 7 | 9% |
| Mattingly | 3 | 4% |
| Rose (write-in) | 2 | 3% |
| Baines | 1 | 1% |
If you find another ballot, post the link in the comments below and I’ll update the tally as needed.
Is “Hat Guy” Celizic? I love reading the nonsense he spews out in his “columns”.
Keith- what are your views on Blyleven, John, and Morris?
Keith:
Read your ESPN chat today and just wanted to mention East Coast Grill in Cambridge for BBQ.
Marc: Been there, probably seven or eight years ago, and didn’t care for it. I’m a stickler when it comes to Q … Steven: Yes, that’s Celizic. It’s such a great nickname. I’d vote for Blyleven – no-brainer for me – but a soft no on John and a huge if-we-let-this-guy-in-just-let-everyone-in no on Morris.
Just wondering in what category(ies) you reject Morris on. Is it wins,(254) E.R.A. 3.9 0 mostly because of Tiger Stadium, or world series rings which amounted to a paltry 3. Being dead serious, I have never understood his rejection.
Bob: ERA is a good summary of why he doesn’t belong. His career ERA+, which is park-adjusted and reflects his ERA versus the league average for his career, is 105, so his park-adjusted ERA was only 5% better than average. That’s not Hall of Fame caliber.
In addition, his career road ERA was 3.90. Tough to pin that on Tiger Stadium.
He racked up a ton of wins because he spent much of his career on good teams, including a 21-win season for Toronto in 1992 despite a 4.04 ERA (league ERA was 4.11). I can’t give him credit for that win total when run support was so much of the reason.
Still going to pursue the cause for Morris. I thought baseball recently classified a quality start as 6 innings with 3 earned runs or fewer. That equals an era of 4.5 which he clearly bettered. Moreover he pitched in the A.L. his entire career, thus contending against the D.H. The minute he went against the N.L, well, game 7 of 1991 comes to mind… At the very least I am inspired to do more research. While perhaps his league ERA was 3.9 some of those games came at Fenway, another hitters parsdise. And after re-reading your chat today, you mention that strikeouts are all due to the pitcher as opposed to his defense. I agree, and discovered that he has more strikeouts than Tommy John, who you classify as just short. Clearly not trying to belittle Tommy John, just trying to augment my support for Morris. And I apologize if I am turning this into a Jack Morris thread. Thanks
Woody Paige… ugghhhhhh…
http://www.denverpost.com/portal/sports/ci_7733237?_loopback=1
I love it how Paige just throws in a “salute” vote for Dave Concepcion, he of the career 88 OPS+ and 101 HR. He and JM can have a candlelight vigil for the passing of El Rey’s HOF chances.
Hasn’t there been like 1000 columns indicating that all Morris did in his career that was HOF like/worthy was his 10 inning gem. Good to see that Hawk (I feel like many players in the early 90’s and earlier shouldn’t be slammed if their only “negative” is OBP since I think some of them could have adjusted their approach if OBP was highly valued) and Gossage were getting the votes, a bit disappointed to see Raines with only 9. I was hoping that Raines wasn’t going to go the Sandberg route of being penalized or whatever for playing right before the increased offensive era of the 90’s and 00’s.
John, I find it interesting that you do not want Dawson “slammed” for his OBP, yet are no doubt fixated on the ERA of Morris. I choose to look at 3 teams, 3 rings. I consider pitching in the A.L with its dh.I consider the bandboxes of Tiger Stadium and Fenway Park. And I consider articles written by Gammons, Stark and Bill Simmons who want him enshirned. But at the very least, please distinguish me from Woody Paige. I am not advocating Concepcion. And if you are not fixated on his ERA, what are your counter-arguments?
Bob: The DH and Fenway Park are both factored into ERA+ – every AL pitcher had to face the DH and pitch in Fenway Park at some point, and yet Morris managed an ERA just 5% above the league average for his career. How is 5% above league average Hall of Fame worthy? You still haven’t answered that question.
My reasons to exclude Morris:
# of Top 5 AL ERA Seasons (18 yr career): 2
Top 5 AL ERA+: 1
Top 5 AL WHIP: 2
Top 5 AL K/IP: 2
Top 5 AL H allowed/IP: 4
Top 5 AL HR Allowed: 6
That screams League Average Pitcher to me and confirms what my impressions were as a teenager watching Morris pitch.
How is it that Mattingly does not get more support, he was the best defensive 1st baseman of his era and an bove 300 era and average power. Just because his career was cut short by injury, he should not be punished, look at Puckett.
I always thought Puckett was a little overrated- a fine player who benefitted from his immense popularity, a couple of memorable playoff moments (plus his two rings) and an unfortunate ending to his career. If you look at his numbers compared with Mattingly’s, they are pretty close- three points of OPS+ apart (RC are identical). However, Puckett did play a more difficult position. Either way, I don’t think either are quite worthy of Hall of Fame merit.
Bob, its mainly because that’s really the only strong argument against him (which is a good argument, just trying to bring a bit of added thought/perspective to it). His counting stats are outstanding and most of his rate stats except for OBP are very solid. Then you start to add in extras like Gold Gloves, All-Star games (more to explore whether he was deemed as an outstanding player in his time/era), etc. Morris’ stats are pretty average across the board except wins which are more a function of teams, etc. and his one historical performance.
How have the Bob’s and Mike’s of the world stumbled onto this blog without having heard numerous arguments re: the unworthiness of players such as Morris and Mattingly (esp. Morris)? This debate has been gone over ad nauseam. Morris would be an indefensible choice (and while I would not support either, Hernandez is the more worthy ’80s NY 1B in my mind).
I get linked to now from a number of non-baseball blogs, and my Google ranking seems to be going up, so I would bet that many people find this blog because of the food/books stuff and stick around for the occasional sports post. It’s all good.
John, Shawn,& Keith, thank you for your insightful comments/responses. And just to clarify, I wasn’t trying to insult Dawson. I also would prefer to ignore the fact that Morris gave up so many home runs. That was a by-product of Tiger Stadium. While I do note that wins are a function of teams, I also note that the 3 teams he played for all sipped champagne in October. And if we are to believe that october matters, lets review his 1984 post-season. 3 games started, 26 innings pitched and only 5 earned runs. Well above average when it counted. I do acknowledge his ERA is high, but in my ( demented) mind, his post-season heroics dwarf that tidbit. I also note that he has more k’s than Jim Palmer and Tommy John. He also had 175 complete games, a sizeable amount when you realize that Sparky Anderson ( Captain Hook) was his manager for most of his career. I think some people in this group are holding the fact that he played with good teams against him. He carried his teammates on his back, not the other way around. But this fact bears being mentioned again. 1984: 3 starts, 26 innings, 5 earned runs. At the very least, that is better than ” pretty average across the board.” And thank you guys for letting me use this forum to rant. Keith, great website.
Herb, I have heard and read the arguments about the unworthiness of Morris. I have chosen not to be swayed by them. Again Gammons, Stark and Simmons all support him. And he does get over the 5% needed to stick around. Perhaps I am a fan of George Orwell and 1984 sticks with me.
Bob, at the very least I like that you stick to your guns on this. I think the difference between your HOF merits and mine would be that while Morris was indeed a great postseason pitcher in 1984, it seems that his other 1000+ innings should also count in the discussion and weigh more heavily than the 26. I’m all for Morris in the “Hall of Decent during the regular season and above average in the post-season” but that would be about it. Lastly, the fact that he played on good teams is the only reason he’s even brought up as a HOFer. The fact that your argument for him is basically primarily on his post-season innings pretty much bears that out.
And I don’t think Keith should be in the BBWAA because he doesn’t really know anything about baseball. Boo on you for even trying Keith.
That’s my way of saying keep up the good work Keith, much appreciated.
Bob, an ERA of 4.50 is only for the absolute worst of quality starts. I looked up the numbers for the 2007 NL, and there were 1,224 quality starts (only 148, or 12%, were of the 6 IP, 3 ER variety). Teams with a quality start won 835 and lost 389, for a winning % of .682. The ERA for all 1,224 quality starts was 2.13.
Wow, Keith, the number on Raines looks pretty much like the one you got in your straw poll last January. Is there much crossover between the two samples?
I’m starting to get optimistic about Raines crossing 50% on his first year, which would be a solid base towards eventual enshrinement.
Eric, thanks for the free research. My objection to the 6 inning 4.5 ERA is that that stat clearly does not factor in stadium and line-up issues. I am new to the sabernomics math, and probably will never understand it. I know Keith has mentioned ERA+ a few times, but I am not sure how they figure it out. Although, I am sure there is a formula. I do know, however, that in 1990 as a 12 year old kid, Prince Fielder was hitting home runs in Tiger Stadium. While I grant you Prince is a special talent, that also speaks volumes as to the size of Tiger Stadium. This is what Morris had to contend with. Brutal for pitchers. There also appears to be an interesting disconnect between the writers in this group and the Hall writers regarding Alan Trammell. Playing his whole career in Tiger Stadium, he averaged .285 and belted 185 homers. That does not resonate with me, regardless of how well he played the field. Much more impressed with Morris than Trammell. In this group I am in the minority, yet Morris gets more support from the actual voters. Again I apologize for my ignorance regarding sabernomics. But I would like to ask one more question, although a response is not neccessary. Game 7 of the world series, what pitcher do you want on the mound? In my humble mind its either Beckett or Jack Morris. Thank you
Bob,
ERA+ factors in Tigers Stadium. You can fairly easily calculate the amount a stadium’s particular environment inflates or deflates scoring. You can then take that adjustment and apply it (on a ratio basis) to a pitcher’s ERA based on the parks in which he pitched.
As Keith pointed out, when you do this for Morris, he comes out 5% better than the AL average at the time. So AFTER you factor for his environment, that’s where he comes in.
Having more strikeouts than Palmer and John is not a good argument either. Palmer is not in the HOF for his strikeouts, and John is not in at all. You can’t pick and choose stats and compare them to help your preferred candidate’s cause. You wouldn’t let a shortstop in simply because he was a better hitter than Ozzie Smith, would you?
The fact that this betters the MAXIMUM possible ERA for a quality start is irrelevant. It merely indicates that Morris was a good pitcher, not a great one.
And the postseason performance is impressive, but the Hall of Fame is for truly great players, not merely good players who had a small handful of great games in the postseason.
Bob, ERA+ is ERA neutralized based on the parks. It’s made so you can directly compare things like Coors Field and Wrigley Field. Morris being victimized by Tiger Stadium is accounted for in ERA+, and so it’s perfectly valid to state that he was only 5% better than average over his career. That’s about the same gap as having a 3.80 ERA in a league where the average is 4.00.
I should also note that there are 459 players with a better ERA+ with at least 1000 IP, 3000 batters faced, and 100 decisions. I realize that making the criteria 10,000 IP and 250 decisions would sort out most of that, but it should be clear that Morris is way off what a HoF pitcher should be.
Jay: I think fewer than half of the 30 ballots I’ve collected were in my sample from last year. I wanted to do this to see how reliable my sampling was – we’ll compare what I get (I want to get to 60-70 ballots, which would be 10% of the electorate) to the actual results, and then next year we’ll know what our margin of error is.
Last comment:
If you set IP to 2000 (I have no idea why I said 10,000 in the last comment) you still get 200 pitchers at least as good as Morris. Should the Hall of Fame have 200 pitchers?
Hey your beating my tally which stands at 19 full balots. Not sure if you dont have any of these.
1.Jim Hawkins
2.Don Bostrom
3.Garry Brown
4.Bernie Lincincome
5.Jeff Blair
6.John Mcgrath
7.Jim Caple
8.Mike Celzic
9.Buster Olney
10.Bob Klapisch
11. Mike Nadal
12. Lowell Cohen
13. Jim Alexander
14. Bob Ryan
15. Carl Steward
16. Bill Kennedy
17. Kevin Kernan
18. Jeff Fletcher
19. Phil Jackman
Hope not to ruin a well-versed and thoughtful HOF discussion, but Keith, just wanted to mention from all the Boston-area barbecue posts in the chat the other day, I’m really surprised M & M Ribs in Dorchester didn’t come up. Went there 3 or 4 years ago – it’s just a trailer that Big Moe, the owner, parks in a vacant lot, only takeout – but I thought it was fantastic. I first heard about it on the Phantom Gourmet (http://www.phantomgourmet.com/Showpage.aspx?content=ReportCard&id=3433). Definitely a worth a try, it’s fun.
Ronaldo and Dan, thanks for the feedback. To answer the last question first, clearly there should be no quotas for the Hall-of-Fame. I also wasn’t intending to cherry-pick stats for Morris, just trying to shore up some support for him. (Clearly not working) I guess my defense of him has always been ( and always wiii be) predicated on his Octobers, and not his Mays. One last favor from you guys if possible. Could you recommend a book that deals with sabernomics. I would prefer a book to a publication as I subscibe to BA and ESPN as it is. Our opinions notwithstanding, I have enjoyedd the back-and-forth.
Al, thanks, you added a few names I hadn’t seen. I’ll update the post now (43 ballots).
Bob, I don’t have any books that go into the logic and the processes other than the Bill James Historical Abstracts. Sites like hardballtimes.com or baseballthinkfactory.org are good places to read up and ask questions.
Keith, stumbled here, awesome, glad to see you got a blog, and don’t worry, your HOF vote will be coming soon.
BUT GODDAMN WAS I GLAD TO SEE YOU SAY BLYLEVEN IS A NO-BRAINER, GODDAMN GLAD!
However, I need your reasoning as to why it’s a no-brainer, as my no-brainer reasoning doesn’t seem to work on other blogs and message posts, and I’m guessing your no-brainer reasoning will allow me to infiltrate the world of EqA, of which I’m just becoming accustomed to.
Although, I don’t need no fancy stat to know Blyleven is a no-brainer HOFamer. Makes me more qualified to write about baseball than Woody Paige, no?
Bob,
Baseball Between the Numbers
Moneyball
The Bill James Historical Abstract
are good places to start. I’ve read all of these and have a pretty firm grasp on the “advanced metrics.” Check out baseballmusings.com and baseballprospectus.com as well.
Gossage &/or Jim Rice attaining enshrinement furthers the progression of MLB to a relegation system: Yanks/Sawkx, & everybody else.
& if those two decent players get in before Tommy John, I hope that the pitching staves in the Bronx & Boston experience elbow breakdowns en masse.
Dan and Kyle, thank you very much for the tips. Sad commentary about myself that I have not read Bill James. Will recify it.
Tracy Ringolsby: Bert Blyleven, Dave Concepcion, Rich Gossage, Jack Morris, Lee Smith and Alan Trammell.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/12/qa_tracy_ringol.php
Taylor – Thanks. I’m updating the spreadsheet now.
These are not official ballots, but we are running our own Hall of Fame poll over the the Baseball-Reference.com Stat of the Day blog. You can still vote if you like:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/462
Keith,
Any chance you can post your spreadsheet at some point, and/or, give us the list of who did/didn’t vote for Raines?
Thanks…
I thought a comparison to this would be interesting:
http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=70758
Keith’s list has 4 runawayers: Gossage (91%), Blyleven/Rice/Dawson (around 70%). After that, Morris/Raines struggling to get to 50%.
The Baseball Fever list has Blyleven/Gossage around 75%. But Rice/Dawson are at 46%.
The other two contenders in the BBWAA has Raines at 63% and Morris at only 13%.
The other heavy hitter in the Baseball Fever list (Trammell at 49%) is at 19% with BBWAA.
Clearly, BBWAA are far more fascinated with SLG, RBI, and wins than they are of OBP, Runs Scored, and ERA.
Not sure if you counted him already, but T.R. Sullivan has his ballot up on his blog:
http://trsullivan.mlblogs.com/trsullivan/2007/12/my_hall_of_fame.html
My votes would go to
Gossage using the weak argument of “if Sutter then Gossage”.
Blyleven because he has the same type career as Sutton, Niekro, is under appreciated and merits induction
Rice as he was thought of as the most dangerous hitter in baseball for a good long time
Dawson no question a great all-around player who deserves it
Morris a big game pitcher and constant winner. BBWA doesn’t like him but should elect him
If my vote counted, I’d have to greatly consider
Murphy as the back to back MVP, great player, classy guy
Parker as the hated poster child for cocaine in the 80s. He could flat out play, hit, run and throw
Trammell as a SS in the pre-Jeter, A-Rod time who was better than most SS in the hall.
The rest of the guys aren’t worthy in my opinion…
Bob, despite what one of the posters wrote, it’s great that you stumbled across KLaw’s mostly non-baseball site and also seem to have an interest in learning more about stats, such as ERA+, to help evaluate players. If you keep an open mind, you’re probably about to start a fun journey that will no doubt alter some of your long-held beliefs about players from the past.
One thing to keep in mind (and this is actually a point to argue in favor of Morris, even though I am also part of the group that does not view Morris as a HOFer) is that ERA+ is only one stat to help evaluate a pitcher’s career. Not all pitchers with an ERA+ of 105 are created equal. Someone who pitches six or seven seasons, and averages 140 IP a year with an ERA+ of 100 is not as valuable as someone who pitches sixteen or seventeen seasons, and averages 220 IP with an ERA+ or 100. I made up that example, but I think you can see the point. Length of career, innings pitched per season, post-season accomplishments and specifically career peak value are other items to be considered when evaluating a career.
For example, Catfish Hunter is in the HOF with a career ERA+ similar to Morris. Yet before you think that’s an argument in favor of Morris, read on! Other pitchers with the same ERA+ as Hunter are, to name just two, Bud Black and Bob Tewksbury. That’s an argument on why Hunter (or Morris) should *not* be in the HOF. Yet very few, if any, talent evaluators would select Black or Tewksbury above Hunter if they could somehow magically pick one of those three knowing what they now know about them. Hunter’s final ERA+ was impacted negatively because he was called to the majors when he was barely 19 and not quite ready for the Show, and then he hung around a few years after his arm was pretty well shot. At his peak, though, he was quite a good pitcher, winning 20 games for five straight seasons, leading the league in wins in back-to-back years, winning % twice, ERA, Cy Young Award winner, and most significantly, posting an ERA+ of 143, 140 and 134 during his peak years. He was also a workhorse, averaging more than 300 innings over three straight seasons, including being the first pitcher in nearly 30 years to pitch more than 300 innings and complete 30 games in a single season. Prior to Hunter, the last to do that, I believe, was Bob Feller in the 1940s. No one’s done it since, and I’d be shocked if anyone ever does it again. Obviously, a pitcher starting one quarter of his team’s game, and completing 30 of them with an ERA+ of 143 is going to be worth a lot more than someone who pitches 100 innings. Throw in a perfect game and a number of big post-season wins for the A’s dynasty of the early to mid 70s, and that’s why he ended up with enough HOF support, deserved or not. (Having a colorful name didn’t hurt either!)
This is not an argument for Hunter in the Hall, since I believe he falls a little short, as I believe Morris does, too. Yet I can make an argument for Hunter because he did achieve greatness for a period of time. There were several years where he was rightfully regarded as one of the best pitchers on the earth. Morris can’t even quite claim that. He was certainly good and he deserves to be discussed as a HOFer because of his overall career, but even his best years fall short of Hunter’s. Morris was a good pitcher, and that’s says a lot. But he was not a great pitcher, in my opinion, and I don’t see other things in his career to offset that 105 ERA+.
Mike, thank you very much for the kind words and the time-consuming research your last post entailed. It is duly noted, and I look forward to reading your future posts regardless of the topic. Again my sincere thanks.
Keith,
I’m sure you caught Dan Shaughnessy’s HOF ballot (if not — “I voted for Rice, Gossage, and Bert Blyleven this year” — go to: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2007/12/26/this_is_rices_year/?page=2).
I suppose there’s not much to complain about with Blyleven and Gossage, but Rice . . . nice homer vote there. D.S. sums it up best with:
“. . . .Rice has three things going for him: 1. His vote total has been north of 60 percent in recent years and Sox historian Dick Bresciani has boosted Rice’s candidacy with a convincing public relations campaign; 2. The more we talk about steroids, the better Rice’s numbers look; 3. There are no new candidates to overwhelm the voters.”
Oh yea, and extra points for being both “loved” and “feared.”
Now that we’ve established those factors as considerations for HOF candidacy, I can leap from the top of my office building. Say what you will about some of these writers’ ability to cast a HOF ballot, they should get an A+ for transparency.
The support for Rice really boggles the mind. The lack of support for Raines is kind of understandable, given it’s his first year, but it still is kind of shocking that so many people seem to feel that Rice is more qualified for the Hall than a guy like Tim Raines. But, I can’t exactly figure out how a guy suddenly “becomes Hall of Fame worthy” after not being suitable for x number of years on the ballot.