Klawchat 2/27/20.

Subscribers to The Athletic can see my top 100 prospects ranking as well as all of my prospect content so far, which as of today includes the top 100, the ‘just missed’ column, and org reports for the AL East and Central. My ranking of all 30 farm systems will run on Monday.

Keith Law: Some kind of night into your darkness. Klawchat.

Spencer: What is your biggest concern with Luis Garcia (WAS)?  What does he need to do to get back into your top 100?
Keith Law: He was never on my top 100. What exactly is the plus tool there? What does he do well, other than being young for his level?

eric: are you worried about flying for your work (or pleasure) with the coronavirus threat? would you refuse to at any point?
Keith Law: If the CDC advises people to stop flying, yes, I would stop. I’m certainly aware of this possibility, and I’m not taking any undue risks.

addoeh: You like to joke that “no one ever reads the intro”. But when it comes to rankings and lists, no one ever reads the content. From “The Keith Law -> Show” episode you had with Longenhagen, and looking at what Callis and Mayo have described in their evaluations, you all said similar things on Madrigal, you just value his skillset differently. But because the rankings are different, people have their torches and pitchforks out.
Keith Law: The reaction to that, and to my exclusion of Drew Waters, was really embarrassing. If you take sportsball rankings that seriously that you feel the need to insult a total stranger online, you should probably log off and contemplate your behavior.

Hank: Do you think Anthopolous will explore locking up Soroka and/or Fried? Seems like the new trend is early extensions around baseball.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t lock up Soroka with his injury history.

Dave: Hi Klaw, I hope you’re having a good one. Two questions, the most important, do you think Jarren Duran has the talent to become a significant part of the Red Sox’s future? Second, can this country overcome another four years of the liar in chief?
Keith Law: Duran can be a regular in the right scenario, not a ‘significant’ player though. No, I don’t think we can – it’s the deterioration of our democracy and essential institutions that scares me.

Logan: How did Ozzie Albies only get 7 years 35 million? Even with his option years, it’s a 9/49 max deal.  When he signed the deal he already had 200+ MLB games under his belt and was an All Star too. Players who hadn’t even played in Majors yet are securing larger salaries and total possible payouts.
Keith Law: Terrible advice.

Greg: It’s refreshing to see a different perspective regarding Drew Waters. The BABiP is insane, tons of K’s. He’s got bust written all over him. Brave fans are completely over-valuing him.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say he has ‘bust written all over him,’ but there are serious red flags, including his lack of any kind of approach and questions about his makeup.
Keith Law: Would he be so overvalued if he weren’t also from Georgia?

Amit: What would do with Marcus Semien if you were in charge of the A’s? I feel if they can’t reach a contract extension before the season starts they should trade him. Would hate for them to lose him after the year for just a draft pick and they do have some of in house options in Mateo, Allen, etc. Also feel Chapman and Olson are higher priorities for keeping long term.
Keith Law: Eh, if they think they can contend again, it makes sense to keep him this year and play it out.

Larry: How many of these college pitchers have a chance to grade out better than last years top college pitcher Nick Lodolo?
Keith Law: 3-5. It’s a great pitching class.

John: How do you factor in organizational success in developing or not developing certain positions when you do your prospect rankings?  I’ll use the example of Cleveland having success in developing starting pitchers (Bieber, Civale, Plesac, even Plutko to an extent).
Keith Law: The rankings are completely team-agnostic. Any player can be traded at any time.

Sean: Hi Kieth – is Vladito destined to be the Prince Fielder of Canada as a 1b/DH for the Jays, esp with Groshans on the way? Also, their outfield is terrible, should they sign Puig?
Keith Law: I think and have long thought Vlad Jr has to be a DH. I know Jays fans didn’t want to hear it a year ago but now that you’ve seen him at third you probably understand why i said that.

Jabroni: Vaughn or Torkelson?
Keith Law: Torkelson.

Dave C: With only 1 option left should the Mets throw Kilome in the bullpen or try to stretch him out post TJ? Ditto Szapucki
Keith Law: Not sure why the option plays into it here … the bigger question is whether he can ever start, and I don’t think he can.

DaveKeith, wondering how Miguel Amaya stacks up versus other catchers on your list (obviously inferior based on NOT making the list)? He’ll be repeating AA as a 20-yr old with above average defense…is his meh-ish offensive potential holding him back in your view?
Keith Law: Amaya has never played in AA. He hit .235 last year in high A. He’s a prospect but I don’t understand why anyone expected to see him on the top 100.

Bruce: In your just missed segment, you said that Andrew Knizner was not a good receiver and may fit better in a utility role as a part time catcher. How likely is it for a catcher to be able to improve their receiving skills at this point in their career? Does Knizner still have the potential to be an every day MLB catcher?
Keith Law: Depends on the catcher – some just need more instruction, some will never have the hands to do it. I think Knizner is more likely in the latter category.

Bruce: The Brewers just signed Freddy Peralta to an extension. His success to date has been limited – flashes of brilliance followed by bad outings. Was that a worthwhile risk for Milwaukee?
Keith Law: It’s so little money relative to what an MLB team should spend that I think it’s fine. He’s just not the type of player I’d be rushing to lock up long term.

Frank: As a fellow democrat, do you share the “doom and gloom” of a seemingly-impending Bernie Sanders nomination (re: being unable to defeat Trump in the General Election)?  Could a Warren/Buttigieg or Biden/Clinton pre-convention announcement slow his momentum? Socialism will never “sell” in the red states.
Keith Law: No matter who the Democrats nominate, the Republicans will call them a “socialist,” and the media will happily parrot it, and 70% of Americans will believe it because they don’t know what socialism actually means and that not even Bernie is actually proposing policies that resemble socialism.

Stan: Hi Keith! Where would Martin and Torkelson rank on your Top 100 list if they were eligible? Thanks!
Keith Law: Other than saying they’d be on the list somewhere, I prefer not to answer that type of question, mixing amateur players with professional ones.

Ron: Hi Keith-Love all your work. And I am not one to complain if “My Team” prospect didn’t make your top 100 or is ranked lower than I think.  I don’t scout and I don’t talk to scouts, so actually how do I know what that prospect is like? Just like 100 % of the complainers of your work.  So keep it up. Just like you’re doing. One question: How easy will it be for the Twins to get Lewis back on track with his mechanics at the plate?  Thanks!!
Keith Law: I feel like it shouldn’t be hard to get a player back to where he was two years ago – not like you’re trying to teach him something totally new.

Tank: Not really as a blanket statement towards leaning towards safety in a prospect overall, just a specific instance here: am I wrong for being more confident in Gigliotti being an MLB regular in some form than that Wilmington trio (Pratto, Melendez, Matias)?
Keith Law: I don’t see the path for Gigliotti to be a regular right now.

Greg: Is an economy-tanking coronavirus outbreak the thing that might actually lead to Trump losing? And if so… worth it?
Keith Law: I don’t think anything would contribute as much to a Trump loss as a down economy, but I could never say the deaths of a few thousand Americans from coronavirus is a cost ‘worth’ paying to remove anyone from office.
Keith Law: I do think a disastrous federal response to a pandemic would also contribute to a Democrat win.

Paul: If Hosmer was a FA, what type of contract would he get? (Lol)
Keith Law: Less than 2 and $20MM.

Steve: What do you think of Patrick Weigel? Good bullpen arm for 2020?
Keith Law: Probably. NL East reports on Tuesday.

SeanE: I know you are skeptical that Oneil Cruz can stick at SS due to his height.   The Pirates seem intent on keeping him there…at least for now. Considering he is already at AA level  (and could see Indy this year)at what point do the Pirates have to make that call?
Keith Law: This would be the year for me. Maybe they could hold off one more year but why?

Jason: Most likely scenario for Trevor Larnach given his defensive limitations – (1) doesn’t hit enough to play enough every day; (2) is a league-average hitter for a corner OF but gives back most of his value defensively; (3) is an above-average hitter so his team lives with his limitations in the field
Keith Law: somewhere between 2 and 3.

Jim: Keith, Having lots of fun reading through the team-by-team writeups.  A couple of questions:  is there a particular reason you stopped including “Others of Note” after Boston’s?  And could you expand on your “willingness to compete” comment on the White Sox’s Matt Thompson?  Thanks!
Keith Law: I didn’t stop including them. I’m looking at Cleveland’s right now, for example.

EL: Besides Balazovic, any other Canadian baseball prospects I should follow?
Keith Law: Dasan Brown comes to mind.

Zach: Does Lodolo make a big jump in your ranking this year if he has a good year? Seems like ++ control and a good frame to develop.
Keith Law: Not about a good or bad year but about what he is. If he somehow adds velocity, sure, but I don’t think he has the frame for that.

JC: Isn’t it strange on a conceptual level how non-industry people can argue with your rankings? Granted you can’t just fall into the appeal to authority trap, but other than comparing it to other lists or looking at a prospect’s fangraphs page for 5 minutes, what exposure do 99.5% of complaining people have to the prospects?
Keith Law: Nothing. A local journalist decided to question my integrity this morning about a player he’s obviously never seen and who he said won an award that doesn’t exist.
Keith Law: Whatever, it’s part of the job, everyone’s an expert on everything now.

Rick Delaney: I’m midway through Gaddis, “A Frolic of His Own.” You’ve read him?
Keith Law: I read The Recognitions but I can’t say I really understood it.

Wait, what?: Do you think that a large part of Manfred trying to cover up the Astros scandal has a lot to do with preventing other team’s schemes from reaching the public?
Keith Law: I think a large part of Manfred’s response to the Astros/Red Sox is to try to prevent the other teams doing this shit from getting out.
Keith Law: And other teams were doing it. Not a lot, but others.

Kevin: I remember years ago you mentioned you that Severino was a bullpen arm most likely because of his violent delivery. Do you think moving forward after his recovery, should he go into the bullpen or keep starting?
Keith Law: Really depends on the injury and the rehab, no? He was hurt before the elbow tear, so this isn’t like, say, Michael Kopech, who had TJ but didn’t have a previous injury and will likely just step right back into starting.

eric: did you read quinn norton’s post about life after being “canceled?” i think the idea of that story is really interesting, but hers just read like “NOT FAIR! I’M A GOOD PERSON (even though i befriended nazis and made offensive homophobic and racist jokes)!”
Keith Law: No, after how she handled that controversy, I’m not that interested in anything she has to say.

Jack: Just to confirm – even at a prospect level, there’s nothing at all valuable when looking at box scores from spring training games, correct?
Keith Law: Correct.

Appa Yip Yip: If Alejandro Kirk does improve his conditioning, could he be an everyday catcher, or he likely a backup C/DH who can rake, like a short Evan Gattis?
Keith Law: Gattis could never really catch. Kirk can.

JSD: There is a thread on twitter asking White Sox fans if they would be pleased if Luis Robert’s career was similar to Rickey Henderson’s career.  Most ‘fans’ said no.  How is it that people don’t realize just how good Rickey was — it’s not the long ago.  Is it because he hung around and was basically an average player at the age of 42/43? Really, what gives?!
Keith Law: That was astonishing. If you don’t recognize Rickey is one of the 15-20 best players ever then, fine, just don’t participate in that kind of discussion.

Michael: I don’t think there has been a good explanation as to why “Carona” virus is worse than the bad flu that happened a couple of years ago.  Any insight?
Keith Law: The virus itself (or the resulting illness) isn’t worse. The incubation period is longer, however, so people are spreading the virus before they know they’re sick, which makes it much more likely to become a pandemic.

Andres: As a Mets fan, what should I expect out of Wacha? Maybe a 2-WAR season?
Keith Law: I’d be happy with that.

tim: how likely is it that we’ll see robo-umps calling balls and strikes in MLB and how will that impact how catchers are valued?
Keith Law: By 2022 I expect an automated strike zone and universal DH.

Torkelson: I will be drafted #1 by detroit, no doubt.
Keith Law: There’s doubt. Austin Martin is pretty damn good. I think it’s one of those two.

Chris: Will players play less hard this year given that they’re just competing for a piece of metal?
Keith Law: Only the ones who realize it’s just for a piece of metal.

Chris: How often will you podcast?
Keith Law: It should be every week, my schedule permitting.

Matt: Why is it so hard to draft good players? Mike Piazza was drafted in like the 956th round and a hall of famer. Brien Taylor was #1 pick and never made it to MLB.
Keith Law: OK, you picked maybe the two most extreme, ridiculous examples to make some kind of point here. Taylor never reached the majors because he got jumped in a bar fight, not because it was a bad pick.

John: I think I have food tastes that are somewhat similar to yours, but when it comes to coffee, I would imagine that you’d consider my tastes middlebrow.  I like Peet’s and Starbucks, especially their darker roasts.  Moreover, when I’ve had coffee from independent roasters, I’ve often perceived the taste to be a bit too bitter.  Can you explain what I’m missing and what your reaction is when you have coffee from a mainstream coffee outlet (but to be clear, still a place that focuses on coffeee… not like McDonalds coffee or something like that)?
Keith Law: That’s interesting because I believe the chemicals in coffee that produce bitter flavors are much more present in darker roasts and in coffees that are overbrewed (too high a water/ground coffee ratio). You may be detecting more ‘sour’ flavors in lighter roasts, which is true because those flavors tend to vanish or be overshadowed by longer roasting. But lighter-roasted coffee is not more bitter unless the brewer isn’t using enough coffee in the first place.
Keith Law: Also, I wouldn’t consider your tastes middlebrow. They’re just not my tastes.

Alex: 100 prospects/30 teams means roughly each team should have about 3 players on your top 100.  Is it fair to say that a team without at least 2 players in the top 100 is not really doing a good job managing their farm system?
Keith Law: No.

eric: do you have any tattoos? i’m thinking about getting my first, but still debating if, where and what
Keith Law: I do not. My girlfriend vetoed my “I HATE YOUR TEAM” upper back tattoo idea the other day.

Idaho Nuke: I’m about as far-right as you can get (I would never vote for Trump for a few reasons though) and I would like to thank you for always keeping our brief political discussions civil over the past several years on Twitter. It is nice to have short chats with someone who agrees with me on virtually nothing when both sides are respectful.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. Happy to talk to anyone who is civil in turn.

TP: Thanks so much for all of your hard work on the Top 100! Do you have any issues with blogs and websites that cover specific teams posting parts of your top 100 (i.e. names and rankings for players in the org. they cover)? From all of the content that is out there, you can actually reverse engineer your top 100 list (albeit just the names and rankings – not the write ups, although some sites have also posted portions of those…)
Keith Law: I have asked some people to take down screenshots of entire player capsules. That’s copyright infringement.

Appa Yip Yip: Patrick Murphy placed 14th on your Jays list despite his lengthy injury history. If he didn’t have that history and had just steadily worked his way up, where would he have ranked? Guess I’m asking what his ceiling is.
Keith Law: He might be a top 100 guy if he were completely healthy (or had just the one TJ on his record). Stuff is there. Gotta pitch some time, though.

eric: Bigger question: Torkelson or Turk Turkelton?
Keith Law: Chuckie Lee Torkelson.

Patrick: Thanks for the detailed write-up on the Royals.  Appears at the surface, the lack of position player prospects is holding down the system a little bit.  Fair assessment?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Bort: What would you say is the biggest level jump there is in the minors (besides AAA to the majors of course).
Keith Law: high A to double A.

Alex: Big fan of your work. First time I’ve caught a chat on time though. What are your opinions on Potential 1st rounder Ed Howard?
Keith Law: Seems like the kind of high-risk, athletic, maybe not that advanced player teams shy away from in the first round and overpay afterwards.
Keith Law: overpay = over slot, not pay too much.

Jackie: Assuming Clemens and Bonds never get the necessary votes from you the BBWAA  to get into the HOF, how do you think the Veterans’ Committee will look at them?  Do they sail in, or do the Joe Morgan types keep them out?
Keith Law: I think they’ll do worse with ex-players than they have with writers.

Guest: Anthony Kay was on your top50 midseason honourable mention, but wasn’t in the top 100 this go-around. Was this performance related, or did just too many guys jump over him? Thanks.
Keith Law: The lists are not sequential, and the honorable mentions aren’t necessarily guys 51-55 or something.

Jim L: What are you thoughts on Bloomberg for president? To me, he seems like he can work with both sides and can also counter Trump’s main boast of being rich and successful.
Keith Law: Hard pass. History of mistreating women, racial profiling, supporting right-wing candidates … nah, we’re good.

Dylan: Your annual breakout column is my favorite column of the year. Are you going to write one this year now that you’re at the Atlantic? Many fantasy baseball players (or at least the smrt ones) rely on your insights. Thanks for the great work.
Keith Law: No, but I plan to write one at the Athletic.

Jared: The Brewers owner said that they operated at a loss last year since they signed a couple free agents but also sanctioned a study saying how the stadium makes the city so much money. Seems like mixed signals to me. Thoughts?
Keith Law: It seems most likely that they are lying about all of it.

John: Can you explain why the general public does not seem to be embracing Elizabeth Warren? She is incredibly smart, prepared, progressive and pragmatic. Is 90% of the reason misogyny? 95%?
Keith Law: I’d say 80% misogyny, 20% that Bernie was ‘there’ first (from 2016).

Ben: I know you were in favor of the Giants effectively buying Will Wilson for $12M yet he didnt make your top 100 or near missed list.  So if $12M is a good investment for a guy who is not in the top 120 of all MLB prospects, doesnt that speak volumes to how undervalued and underpaid these guys really are?
Keith Law: Yes, yes it does.

Andy: I live in Madison, WI and go to a couple of Brewer games a year. I have spent probably $1000 in the Milwaukee area due to attending Brewer games, none of it in actual Milwaukee other than parking and things at the stadium. In fact, I’ve never once actually left the stadium towards Milwaukee. So you can add this to the anecdata about how Miller Park adds very little to the surrounding area.
Keith Law: Right? The stadium isn’t even downtown! It’s not like you can walk out of Miller Park and into a bar and stumble out of there into another bar (speaking of which, no one mentions the added costs of more people getting drunk in your city, so you need more policing, have more minor crimes, etc.).

Andy: Apparently for next year, your top 100 rankings should be your ranking of all the people who others have ranked in the top 100.
Keith Law: It is the only way to make some people happy. I would think that if you pay to read my work, you’d want my work.

Mitch: Re: Amaya. He had a 122 wRC+ as the youngest hitter in his league at the most demanding position with great underlying metrics. How can we not expect to see him on the top 100?
Keith Law: wRC+ is a useless stat for minor leaguers, in large part because it over-rewards walks. Chase Vallot had a 136 wRC+ in high A (same level and league as Amaya) in his age-20 season (same age as Amaya). He was and is a non-prospect.
Keith Law: Vallot was a catcher too, BTW.

lucas: Will Cavan Biggio ever hit enough to be a regular? The sky high walk rates make me believe he at least has a good approach at the plate?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think he will.

Jon: Do you think Clarke Schmidt could find his way into the Yanks rotation this season?
Keith Law: Yes.

Spencer: You’re right.  Confused the Luis Garcias again.  Hate when that happens.
Keith Law: There’s another one now, in Houston’s system, who might be the best of the three.

Mario: Tom Murphy or Sean Murphy – who is the better offensive catcher?
Keith Law: Sean.

DdogersDude: Tim Tebow…..  Why?
Keith Law: Hey, I feel quite confident that he is one of the 25 best baseball players in (checks notes) the Philippines.

Michael: Hey Keith- Not really prospect related, but do you think any of the candidates for the 5th spot in the Phillies rotation: Pivetta, Velasquez, Suarez – have a shot to develop into anything approaching league average (or better)?
Keith Law: Mayyyybe Suarez. Not the others.

Joe: Keith, is Kumar Rocker a generational type prospect like many fans are hyping him up to be, or is he just the most famous one at the moment?
Keith Law: Just the most famous. Would bet against him going 1-1 in 2021 right now (that is, I would bet on the field).

Michael: There is a great QB at Clemson who will be the #1 pick next year. I’m a believer that he should sit the year out because why get injured when you are playing for free.  Would that work in baseball with a great pitching prospect?
Keith Law: Yes. Hell, we take pitchers in the first round after they’ve missed their entire draft years due to Tommy John.

Andy: How could there be a disastrous federal response to the pandemic? We have Mike Pence on the case and he absolutely will do what the scientists say and is known for listening to evidence and quickly adjusting his thinking.
Keith Law: I heard he wants to send coronavirus to conversion therapy and turn it into a rhinovirus instead.

Alex: Does Kyle Isbels AFL performance help rebuild his stock enough that if he has a good year this year he’ll be considered for the top 100?
Keith Law: The AFL performance does not – tiny sample in a hitter’s league. However, he has some of the raw tools to be a top 100 guy in the future, if his wrist strength is 100% this year.

eric: if you were deciding between two pitchers, would you take the guy who throws 100 with ease, but not great command/control, or a guy who sits at 88-92 with pinpoint control?
Keith Law: The former. The guy throwing 88-92 is going to have a hard time avoiding hard contact. There aren’t many Kyle Hendrickses out there.

Jason: I know you’re a big metal guy, so I’ve always wondered your opinion on my favorite act of the 80s – GnR.  GnR obviously isn’t metal, but I believe hard rock is appropriate.  Yes, the star only shone for a few years, but boy was it bright.  Thoughts?
Keith LawAppetite was a landmark. Use Your Illusion was an exercise in masturbatory excess.
Keith Law: Although I’m not sure Bob Guccione Jr. has ever really recovered from that.

Kevin w: How do you write?  Locked in office, on couch, music/background noise?
Keith Law: Kitchen table.

Jeff: Hey Klaw, how much is the Reds defense gonna suffer with Moose at 2nd and Castellanos playing any OF position?
Keith Law: And not a true CF on the roster. It’s going to matter. Bauer is going to throw a lot of baseballs into centerfield this year.

Mitchell: Not really a question, but wanted to say after months of holding off, your top 100 was the tipping point for me subscribing to the Athletic. Have to say, damn I’m glad I did it. Some amazing content.
Keith Law: It’s a great site. The app is really strong too.

John: Similar to one of your answers above, I’ve heard rumors that the MLB investigation uncovered six teams engaged in sign stealing beyond the usual cat and mouse game.  Without asking you to name names, do you have a feel for which teams those are?
Keith Law: I think I wrote that rumor, no? I have a list of the six supposed perpetrators. One of them seems totally wrong to me.

Paul: Hey Keith – how was the food on your ATL/Athens trip? Anything 60+? Saw your Five and Ten pic… man I miss that place!
Keith Law: That meal was off the charts good. Also ate at The Grit, The Globe (mostly for beer), 1000 Faces, Zombie Coffee + Donuts, then hit Pho Nam at Krog St when we got back to Atlanta.
Keith Law: oh and Spiller Park at Ponce City Market Sunday morning.

Foster: I seem to recall that you have a fairly strong distaste for the music of Vampire Weekend. Any specific reason for this?
Keith Law: The reason is their music.

Kevin w: Who is your preferred candidate (besides the obvious anyone who can beat trump)?
Keith Law: Warren.

Dr. Bob: According to a guy on NPR yesterday (missed the name), the SARS virus was arrested because the CDC worked with China and other countries to contain it. Trump has cut the CDC budget and banned them from working with China. I am more concerned with Coronavirus than the other diseases that didn’t turn into pandemics.
Keith Law: Excellent point. The gutting of the CDC was going to hurt us at some point. It has just happened sooner rather than later.

Joe: Have you ever considered turning your newsletter into a Patreon or Substack and charging for it (and maybe writing a little more often).  I always enjoy reading it.
Keith Law: I appreciate that, but I don’t think it would be right for me to monetize that. You folks pay for my content at The Athletic and I am compensated that way.

rick: do you use marijuana, thc, cbd products?
Keith Law: I have not. One thing I enjoyed about Pain and Glory was the scene where Antonio Banderas’ character jokes about trying heroin for the first time at age ~60. It me (well, I haven’t tried heroin, but you get the idea).

Dave: For someone like Riley Greene, who you expect to end up in LF, but the Tigers are playing in CF… how much cost is there to keeping him in CF for now?  Are Tigers losing something by not trying to develop him as the best LF he can be? Or is keeping a player as far “left” on the defensive spectrum as possible for as long as possible always worthwhile?  Curious about the underlying philosophy here.
Keith Law: Don’t think there’s a cost there, but there might be one to leaving a player at 2b or C too long due to injury risk.

rick: my mom is a hard-core republican, has been all her life. she said she watched the dem debates with an open mind, but hated how everyone came off in SC. but she said she likes tulsi, and is open to others like klobuchar. even though tulsi is an abhorrent candidate, should i cut my mom a break since she’s actually open to not voting trump?
Keith Law: If she likes Tulsi, then she was probably never voting Democrat in the first place.

Sammy Sosa: Remember when Obama was a socialist for pushing a Republican healthcare plan?
Keith Law: Yep, same one they want to dismantle because a black man pushed it.

Andy: My favorite reaction to your prospect list in the comments and on Twitter was asking if you forgot about x player. Yes, I’m sure after multiple editing processes and months of writing you just didn’t remember about this possible top 150 guy.
Keith Law: Someone asked a year ago if I forgot Luis Garcia (Washington). That person is nowhere to be found after Garcia posted a .280 OBP in AA. So weird, I was sure I’d get an apology.

Matt: Has here been any update on JT Ginn? Are you able to speculate on his draft ranking or is it too early?
Keith Law: He’s off the board until he pitches again.

JJ: As a lifelong resident of Massachusetts, I can tell you that nobody “embraces” Elizabeth Warren.  She’s usually the smartest person in the room, but she just doesn’t connect with voters on a personal level.  She lacks the personal likeability of a Bush 43 or Obama that one needs to be elected president.  To put in in scouting terms, “low ceiling, high floor”.  Her brains make her an acceptable senator, but that’s as far as she’ll go, and it has nothing to do with her gender.
Keith Law: Maybe she should smile more.

Jim: Regarding the “others of note”, I could have sworn they weren’t there for Cleveland and KC; sorry about that. They’re missing for Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago, but I guess not all merit the section.
Keith Law: Sometimes I struggle to get to 20 names worth writing about; sometimes I have closer to 30. But they are all over the team writeups.

Nate: Any hope Jonathan India ends up an above average regular?
Keith Law: Would like to see if he makes better contact this year with a healthy wrist.

Kevin: Just wanted to say first I ended my ESPN+ and switched to Athletic to day to follow you there (your old place is also not friendly to Canadians trying to subscribe, so made it easier).
Keith Law: Thank you. No idea why ESPN wouldn’t consider carving out an Insider-like option for international readers.

Steve: anecdotal, but one reason Warren might not be getting traction as a Bernie alternative among younger voters is the whole “identified as Native American” controversy, which I had thought was a cudgel limited to Trump & the right with “Pocahontas”. When I mentioned my Warren support, my very liberal college junior son and some of his friends dismissed her as another Rachel Dolezal.
Keith Law: Well that’s their error, isn’t it?

Warbiscuit: Besides Tanner Burns are there any other potential draftable Auburn guys you like?
Keith Law: He’s the only one on my list right now.

Matt: Jack Leiter vs. Kumar Rocker. Who are you drafting?
Keith Law: Aren’t they different draft years? 2022 vs 2021?

Guest: Hey Keith – wife and I are doing Asheville, Charleston, Savannah, and Atlanta in a month. Any restos we shouldn’t miss?
Keith Law: Husk in Charleston, Empire State South/The Lawrence in Atlanta. I did not have a great experience at Gunshow in Atlanta but it is a critics’ favorite.

Patrick: Keith, as I fade into this chat, oddball Q. You ever end up talking cooking/music/mutual interests with players/scouts/prospects? Things they know you are interested in?
Keith Law: Scouts, often. Players, just occasionally, although I am always happy to discuss a shared interest with anybody.

Kevin: Maybe one quibble about the prospect list – can you add DOB/age in the future? You do mention it in some write ups, but it would be good to have it right there next to the name.
Keith Law: Good idea. Those were in the headers when I wrote up the list at ESPN so I never had to add them myself.

Robbie: Not sure if you’ll have an article with predictions or if its too early into camp in your opinion, but who would you pick to play in the world series this year. Severino + Paxton news definitely impacts yanks chances slightly at least.
Keith Law: I was down on the Yankees in my predictions last year because I thought their rotation was too injury-prone. I guess I was a year early. They can still make the playoffs with what they have, though, with only one other team in the division actively trying to contend this year.

Joe: Based on the Orioles write up, fair to say that the Schoop, Britton, and Gausman trades were all a bust for Baltimore?  Not one prospect from those trades is on the list.
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: OK, back to writing … I’m nearly done with everything, just one team report left and the back half of the farm system rankings. Thank you all for reading, and for subscribing. The AL West reports will go up Friday, following by the farm rankings Monday and the NL East-Central-West the three days after that. And then we sleep! Enjoy your weekends.

Comments

  1. To JT from Massachusetts: stop pretending you speak for all of us, you only make yourself look worse than the remainder of your comment already does. Which, man, that’s certainly a take you have there. I’d bet you voted for Scott Brown. That truck! That barncoat! So manly!

    • Exactly. Perhaps one of the top 10 least likable Americans ever is our President. Spare me that Warren isn’t electable because she doesn’t connect with people.

    • My favorite part was the utter disconnect in logic between claiming Warren is not likeable, and that her standing in the race has nothing to do with her gender…

    • 100% anecdotal here. I’m a Warren supporter and when I talked to my Mom about the caucus (Iowa here), she said she agrees with Warren on a lot but just doesn’t “connect” with her. So to a certain extent, this does seem to be happening, even with female voters. She felt Klobuchar was speaking more “to her”. So we can’t just hand-wave this away, especially since Bernie is drastically outpolling Warren in MA as we speak.

    • If we want to step away from anecdote and look at data, Warren is one of the least popular senators among her constituents: https://morningconsult.com/senator-rankings/

    • That same data from Mike also indicates she is close to the top 10 most popular Senators. The 10th most popular Senator is at 52% approval while she is at 50%. So she is somewhere between 11th-15th for most popular.

  2. Call me crazy, but I don’t care much if a politician is likable as long as they are competent and intelligent. If you don’t like Candidate XYZ then that’s your business, but if that person can lead us out of this morass I think you need to consider whether “likable” is really your problem here.

    Unrelated, but Keith mentioned Gunshow in ATL. I have been once and really enjoyed it. I don’t know what contributed to his experience, but some restaurants have up/down days. The food I had when I went was all very good and it was definitely an interesting concept.

    • Yep, pretty much. I’ve never had any great like for Hillary, but I thought she’d be a competent president who wouldn’t screw things up the way Trump has.

      If your criteria for electing a president is, “I’d like to have a beer with him!” (that old Bushism), then you definitely need to reevaluate things.

    • I wouldn’t call you crazy. But we should resist calling folks carry who vote based on other criteria. I’m with you… competency over likability every day of the week. And, at least based on what I saw of her when she first rose to prominence a decade or so ago (I haven’t followed her or the primary closely), I did find Warren very likable. But that’s me.

      The perception of Warren’s likability is a factor, whether we like it or not. I don’t like it, not only because I don’t personally care about mass likability but I also think it’s too influenced by gender, race, and other pernicious factors. But I don’t think we’re doing ourselves or our (likely shared) cause any benefit by acting like we have the One True Way to assessing candidates.

    • I loved the food during my one trip to Gunshow, but felt the pacing was off. It seemed that the servers were rushing each plate almost as if they wanted to clear the restaurant for the next seating. We skipped a couple of dishes because we were getting to the point of almost shoveling it in to be ready for the next option.

      About candidates likability, I think it matters, but to a large degree it seems like a chicken / egg discussion that is difficult to untangle. Candidate A doesn’t win because she isn’t likable, Candidate B becomes likable because she wins.

    • I think there’s some difficulty in determining what “likability” actually means. It’s been taken as “My friends and I want to have a beer with him” or “strong woman intimidates me” as reasons for or against a candidate. But I think it’s just as important to connect with a candidate. I’d far rather be voting specifically for a candidate than voting for someone only because I think they can beat Trump. It feels like we’re already screwed as a country if that’s the only factor people are deciding on.

      For me, minimal policy differences between candidates matter a lot less than how well a candidate can talk about their ideas and why they are important, especially given our government and how policy is made. I come away from this campaign with a lot more confidence not just in Warren’s ability to get stuff done, but to sell them to people who are uneasy about it. To me that’s a factor of likability, moreso than wanting to have a beer with a candidate.

    • I don’t remember who it was who inverted the likability measurement for politicians but they recently suggested that it was really about whether voters felt the candidate thought THEY were likable and would sit down with them for a beer. This makes some sense and might explain why Hillary’s “deplorables” remark was so injurious. You can’t succeed in any endeavor and appear to have contempt for your customers.

  3. Glad to hear you enjoyed your Athens trip — I’m heading to Rook & Pawn myself on Saturday for some beer and bridge. Next time you’re there for a ballgame I’d recommend Cali & Tito’s on Lumpkin. Great cubanos, and right down the street from Foley Field — you can probably smell them cooking from the stands….

  4. I’m not a Trumpster & never voted for him & never will, but, do think that distorting the truth doesn’t do us any good either:

    AP FACT CHECK: Democrats distort coronavirus readiness,”

    apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104

    Democratic presidential contenders are describing the federal infectious-disease bureaucracy as rudderless and ill-prepared for the coronavirus threat because of budget cuts and ham-handed leadership by President Donald Trump. That’s a distorted picture. For starters, Trump hasn’t succeeded in cutting the budget.

    He’s proposed cuts but Congress ignored him and increased financing instead. The National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention aren’t suffering from budget cuts that never took effect.

    Some public health experts say a bigger concern than White House budgets is the steady erosion of a CDC grant program for state and local public health emergency preparedness — the front lines in detecting and battling new disease. But that decline was set in motion by a congressional budget measure that predates Trump.

    “The CDC’s response has been excellent, as it has been in the past,” said John Auerbach, president of the nonpartisan Trust for America’s Health, which works with government at all levels to improve the nation’s response to high-risk health crises. Some Democrats have charged that Trump decimated the nation’s public health leadership, but Auerbach said CDC’s top scientific ranks have remained stable during the past three years.

  5. If you don’t recognize Rickey is one of the 15-20 best players ever then, fine, just don’t participate in that kind of discussion.

    I know this is just a throw away line in the middle of a chat and not a definitive attempt to precisely rank Rickey, but what the heck, I’ve got a little time.

    I have Henderson a bit lower than top 20. Among corner OFs, I have him somewhere between 6 and 9 with Ruth, Aaron, Bonds, Musial, and Williams clearly ahead and Robinson, Ott, and possibly Yaz roughly at the same level. Then when you add the other positions and I get Rickey somewhere in the 25-35 range before I start to add pitchers.

    Just a guess, but I suspect that isn’t so far off to prohibit me from taking part in that kind of discussion. 🙂

    • I’d side closer to Keith on this one. Rickey is 19th in bWAR & I would rank him ahead of a # of the deadball guys that are just barely above him like Kid Nichols, Pete Alexander, Eddie Collins maybe Gehrig, who all dominated in a era where it was easier to dominate, esp with no African American or Latin American players. A-Rod is ahead of Rickey, too & that is an interesting one to ponder.

      You’re right on the corner OF thing, but, OF’s dominate the very best players in baseball history (Add CF’s & Mays, Cobb, Speaker are top 20 guys, too). Other than Honus, maybe a couple other guys (Morgan? Hornsby? A-Rod? Gehrig, Schmidt?), I don’t see many IF’s with the career to match Rickey. Guess what I’m saying is being 6th among corner OF’s doesn’t preclude him from being top 20 all time.

    • Posnanski has Rickey at #24 on his top 100 list at The Athletic article that went up this morning. I’m probably biased because he was my favorite player growing up that wasn’t a Cub, but I’d put him in the top 20. Of course, it would be nit-picking and maybe placing him 24th was intentional given his uniform number.

    • Posnanski has all but told readers to disregard the “numerical placement” of the players. His placement of Joe DiMaggio at #56 — like the Maddux, Seaver and Rickey ones, among others — were more of a storytelling device. Too cutesy? Maybe. But, the essays have been goddam fantastic.

  6. People getting mad at sportsball lists that don’t have their favorite prospect is one thing. People getting mad at country music stars for wearing a Sanders #20 football jersey in Detroit and thinking it was for Bernie is another level.

    https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2020/02/28/garth-brooks-barry-sanders-jersey-bernie-sanders/4901350002/

  7. Was surprised you dismissed the criticism to Warren’s false native heritage, given the strong pushback from the native community. Here’s a place to start if you are unfamiliar: https://twitter.com/rebeccanagle/status/1232704949450149889?s=21

    To the larger point, dismissing criticisms of Warren as 80% sexist does everyone a disservice. Between her backtracking on M4A, taking superPac money, and supporting being selected by superdelegates at a brokered convention, the last few months of her campaign have taken a disappointing turn. I say this as someone who donated to her at the beginning of her campaign.

  8. A Salty Scientist

    Not entirely sure what flu Michael was referring to (Swine flu 2009?), but this coronavirus likely has a much higher mortality rate (0.02% for Swine flu vs. 0.2-2% for COVID-19, with the upper bounds being in the ballpark of the 1918 Spanish flu). It’s not nearly as high as SARS or MERS (10-35%), but that, along with its long asymptomatic incubation time is what gives it such a high pandemic potential. Basically, if someone had SARS or MERS, they almost always felt very very sick, even if they ultimately survived, so there were very few people with mild symptoms that would shrug it off as a common cold and pass it on. Not so with the new coronavirus. Many people have mild symptoms, which makes containment much more difficult, and which leads to the somewhat counterintuitive result that many more people will die from this coronavirus than the more deadly SARS and MERS.