Klawchat 1/9/20.

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two new pieces up at the Athletic this week: my introductory post and today’s column on some of what I look for when I evaluate players.

Keith Law: I dreamt that I was dreaming, I was wired to a clock. Klawchat.

Shaun: Does Clint Frazier bring back more in trade than a low level arm or nearer term reliever?
Keith Law: I think his trade value has largely evaporated over the last two years.

Ben: If you’re the Twins, would you part with any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach for a #2-3 starter? I am assuming no #1s are available unless it’s a ridiculous package. Given their playoff annihilation I wonder whether a mid rotation guy will push the team to the next level.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t trade Kirilloff; I probably wouldn’t deal Lewis even with his swing issues. The second two I would deal for a mid-rotation guy without hesitation, although I agree that’s not really their need right now.

Aaron C.: Who does Klaw give the A’s 2B job to? Barreto, Mateo, Neuse or Pinder? These are all depressing choices.
Keith Law: Yes, yes they are.

PhillyJake: Has Ben Cherington been abducted by aliens? Seems overly quiet on the North shore of the Allegheny.
Keith Law: What should he have done? I’m really not clear on what moves he should have made already, with a bunch of decent free agents still on the market.

Aaron C.: Your favorite (restaurant) meal of 2019 was…?
Keith Law: 1. The Love, Philadelphia 2. Friday Saturday Sunday, Philadelphia 3. Juniper & Ivy, San Diego 4. The Purple Pig, Chicago 5. Brewery Bhavana, Raleigh

Deke: Noticed on Twitter you asked to be omitted from someone’s “best of baseball Twitter” bracket poll. Why didn’t you want to participate?
Keith Law: Why would I lend my name to that exercise? I don’t get anything from it, and the ‘bracket’ was almost entirely white men.

Alex: As a Braves fan, I am mostly feeling bloodyminded and hoping that MLB’s penalties against the Astros are at least as harsh as they were against the Braves. But the rational part of my brain accepts the propriety of fitting punishment to crime. So… in your view, normatively, what *should* be the punishment levied against the Astros and Red Sox?
Keith Law: I think what the Astros and Red Sox are accused of doing is worse than what the Braves did in the international market, but I also strongly believe MLB doesn’t see it that way for a variety of reasons, not least of which is that the Braves committed the greater baseball sin of trying to pay players more money.

xxx(yyy): any (brief?) thoughts on the upcoming season of Top Chef? will you be bringing back your episode reviews?
Keith Law: I have not watched the show in three years and have said several times I’m not doing reviews any more. They take up way too much time.

Arnold: Just wanted to say congrats on joining The Athletic. That’s been my favorite place to read about sports for the past year. I look forward to seeing your stuff there. My question…is there any Giants prospect without any major league time yet, who may have an impact on the team this year, perhaps later in the year?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t shock me to see Bart in the majors by August, if he’s healthy. That’s it, though.

Ray : What can one expect from Nick Solak in 2020? Will he play everyday in the Rangers lineup?
Keith Law: Think he’s an extra guy, not a regular. At the moment I don’t see playing time for him anyway.

Trey: Keith – Congrats on joining The Athletic! (I am a happy subscriber:) Cubs Q: given their current ‘near ready’ minor league talent (not much), current roster, and owner induced payroll cap, any chance the cubs can regain elite top 5 mlb status this year or next? Other than Ricketts giving Theo another $50M-75M to spend each of the next two offseasons, what can he do?
Keith Law: Money is the only real way out for the Cubs right now, who are good-but-maybe-not-good-enough at the major-league level and have a bottom-tier farm system without much trade capital.

TomBruno23: Did the Ricketts spend all of their money on the GOP and Wrigley to the point where we are to believe all they can do is all players on NRI deals?
Keith Law: That’s what they’re selling. Your choice whether to buy it.

Joe: Is there a provision for raising the luxury tax threshold? It seems that, with salaries for superstars (deservedly) rising, the threshold should increase to reflect this.
Keith Law: Yes, it went up $2 million for 2020, and goes up $2 million more for 2021.

Krontz: Can Nolan Jones stay at 3b for most of his MLB career? Or a corner OF/1b move likely?
Keith Law: I see a nonzero chance he stays at third.

Jason: You identified changeups, splitters, and cutters as out-pitches for opposite-side hitters. My understanding of the pitch movements is that changeups fall off toward the arm side, splitters tend to break straight down, and cutters break toward the glove side (though I was never a pitcher and stopped playing in junior high, so I recognize I could be off). Given the disparate natures of those pitches, why are they all so effective in getting out opposite-side hitters?
Keith Law: Nothing to do with movement; everything to do with how the pitches appear out of the pitcher’s hand, and whether they resemble fastballs or breaking balls.

barbeach: KLAW: Happy New Year! Congrats on the move to The Athletic…it prompted me to subscribe. Do you see a path for Deivi Garcia to crack the NYY major league roster this year? Thanks as always.
Keith Law: Yes, I do. Cole is locked in for 30 starts, but Tanaka has long pitched with an elbow issue, Paxton gets hurt quite a bit, Severino missed all of 2019, Montgomery is just barely back from TJ. There will be starts available.

David: Congratulations on the new job Keith! Like you, I spend a lot of time working from home but struggle sometimes separating home life from work. I feel like I’m always doing both (fitting in trips to the grocery store in the middle of the work day; doing work in the evening and night.) How do you balance your time? Do you struggle with time management like I do?
Keith Law: Don’t worry so much about ‘time management’ and focus instead on what you need to accomplish each day. FWIW, I use non-work things to break up my work day, since it’s hard for me to just sit and write for hours upon hours without a respite.

Tariq: It appears that the A’s swung wildly and missed on consecutive top 10 picks in 17 and 18 in Austin Beck and Kyler Murray – do you think that it was a flawed approach from the start or do you understand their high risk/high reward in retrospect? Congrats on the new job!
Keith Law: Two different picks, two different processes. I still don’t think they blew it on Murray … nobody thought he’d become that good an NFL prospect at the time he was drafted. The criticism, if any, would be that they didn’t accurately assess his desire to play baseball.

Hank: Hey Keith! How do you view Tucker Davidson and Kyle Muller and will they contribute in 2020? Thanks!
Keith Law: Davidson’s a fifth starter, Muller more a mid-rotation guy, would guess neither contributes much in 2020 given who’s ahead of them.

Trey: Hi Keith – Any plans on updating your top 100 books this year? And, any spy novel recommendations (a more modern Le Carre perhaps)?
Keith Law: That list requires a lot of work, and right now I don’t have a lot of free time.

Alex: Do you think the 3b from Vanderbilt (Lewis) can play SS at the big league level?
Keith Law: If you mean Austin Martin, I have only seen him play an excellent 3b, but never seen him at SS. He’ll play short this spring, and we’ll get our answer.

Roger: You appear to have been right all along about Austin Riley, but my question is if you were Atlanta would you trade him before his value completely tanks?
Keith Law: He played nearly a whole summer in the majors and didn’t hit at all, with pitch data that really doesn’t help his cause. His value is already at a local minimum.

Jim: First off, welcome again to The Athletic! What do you see as what’s going on with Donaldson? Based on what some sources (e.g., MLBTraderumors) are saying, it looks to me like it’s not so much waiting out a bidding war as the market falling apart because nobody wants to meet his demands. Thanks!
Keith Law: No idea, sorry. That is not an area I cover, and that hasn’t changed with the job. We have plenty of other writers who’ll wade in the rumor mire.

Christopher: You work for the Athletic now????
Keith Law: Big, if true.

BigDaddeh: If the Cubs put Yu Darvish’s remaining contract on irrevocable waivers, would someone take it? Is it not even underwater anymore given the new market climate?
Keith Law: Teams would fight to take it.

TomBruno23: Latest episode of The Inquiry, “Why was Qasem Soleimani killed?”, is a clear, concise and informative listen on the current situation.
Keith Law: Of course it is – The Inquiry (from the BBC) is consistently smart despite being so concise.

David (Denver): The Rockies are going to sell way too low on Arenado, aren’t they? I’m enthused for yet another underwhelming return of young pitching that never develops.
Keith Law: I don’t understand jumping to extend him and THEN trying to trade him. It looks indecisive.

tempo: What are your thoughts on two of my favorite metal bands – Slayer and System of a Down?
Keith Law: I enjoy peak Slayer, basically RIB through Seasons. By the late ’90s they’d really stopped producing anything novel, unfortunately, but that’s true for all the ’80s thrash icons.

ryan: keith, its awesome your with the athletic now. what made you switch jobs?
Keith Law: I have already written quite a bit about that in my newsletter.

Alan: If the Sox move Mookie to LAD and Lux is off the table what is a good return package in your opinion?
Keith Law: If I’m the Red Sox I am insisting on May and one of the catchers in the deal, at a bare minimum. It’s Mookie Fucking Betts, people.

Dee Arby: If Moniak wasn’t taken #1, how far do you think he would have slid down the draft board?
Keith Law: He was going in the top 5-6 picks anyway … he was pretty famous, hit well enough at showcases, and scouts liked the kid’s makeup a lot (too much).

Anthony: Thoughts on the White Sox offseason? Been incredibly busy, but does it translate into anything in 2020 and beyond?
Keith Law: Yes, I think it does.
Keith Law: I also don’t think they’re done.

Kyle B: Do you think there’s going to be a work stoppage when this CBA expires?
Keith Law: I will know a lot more about that once I get into this job some more and start my reporting on the labor talks.

Shlomo Zinger: Thoughts on Mike King?
Keith Law: Reliever.

Tinker: What do you think about Chris Shaw and his future? His career path / numbers remind me of Max Muncy!
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s more than an emergency callup.

John: Hi Keith. Loved Smart Baseball. Can’t wait for your next book. Do you see Loaisiga or any of their other young arms being viable bullpen replacements for Betances or will the Yanks need to sign/trade for another power arm in the pen? Thanks.
Keith Law: Given all of Loaisiga’s arm problems, can he work back to back days like most relievers do? I don’t know the answer but I think it’d be an issue for him.

Salty: Not sure if you saw the story of Lassiter vs NY Yankees. Was wondering if you’ve ever seen a grievance taken that far, and if it reached dismissal status only because he was representing himself.
Keith Law: It wasn’t a grievance, but a lawsuit, and to be honest it sounds like Lassiter isn’t well and might need real help. The media coverage I’ve seen seems to be making fun of him (it’s easy, he’s claiming this massive conspiracy against him).

NYYMatt99: Do you agree with Manfred cutting minor league teams? He seems to be doing everything possible to stop baseball from growing
Keith Law: That’s not a yes/no question. I wrote about it October for ESPN and will certainly revisit the topic for the Athletic because it’s a lot more complicated than “cutting minor league teams.”

Chris: Think the Mets deal Dom Smith or he remains a bench bat this season?
Keith Law: I have to think they trade him … he’s more valuable in trade than as a 300 AB (if that) bench player.

Appa Yip Yip: How do you think the Jays starting pitching looks over the next couple of years? They have Ryu, hopefully Pearson, then an amorphous mass of dudes at AAA lead by probably Anthony Kay. How do you see it shaking out?
Keith Law: Lot of guys who could be average or better if healthy, but who have dicey health outlooks, including Ryu. Murphy might be #2 behind Pearson if we knew he’d stay healthy.

Mike: Do you get the same royalty when Amazon drops the price of your bookin the Kindle store?
Keith Law: No, it’s a percentage of the purchase price.

John G: Clarke Schmidt or Michael King as Yankees’ long-term no. 4 or 5?
Keith Law: Schmidt might be a starter; King is not.

jayB: Thoughts on the new I lnfield Outs stats? Other than Baez was still robbed in GG voting
Keith Law: Mike Petriello pointed out that it’s useful but incomplete, and you can see that in some of the leaders.
Keith Law: A lot of batted ball types aren’t included.

Kuipers HR: Obviously, I’d rather Indians keep Lindor. But if they’re not going to put even half the $ they’ve saved into team, trading him is next less-worse option. No?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Bobby Northside: When will we see SP throw 250+ innings again? How can we make it happen?
Keith Law: Never. Even a pitcher who might be capable of doing so will not be allowed to do so because you’re better off with relievers facing hitters for the first time than starters facing hitters for the 3rd/4th time.

Moe Mentum: There’s a 3rd Siani brother on the horizon. Is he on your radar yet, or is it too early still?
Keith Law: He’s next year.

Kevin W.: Does our country (and democracy) ever recover from the last 4 years?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Ben: Just finished Confederacy of Dunces and loved it. The whole time I was reading it, I couldn’t help but picture Ignatius as Buster Bluth. Did you have anyone in mind for his character as you read it?
Keith Law: I read it ~20 years ago, so I don’t remember thinking he was anything but Ignatius himself.

Kevin W.: What happened to Aubrey huff?
Keith Law: Nothing. This is who he’s always been.

John G: Why aren’t the Rockies talking trades for Jon Gray, not just Arenado? Dude seems prime for a restart somewhere to shine
Keith Law: I agree – he’s done about as well as you could have hoped with the Rockies but I could see him going somewhere else and exploding like Cole did with Houston.

Mike D: Why would Cleveland want to shop Lindor and Clevinger instead of building around them? Does not seem to make sense to me.
Keith Law: Then they’d have to spend money.

Kevin W.: Will you continue free agent write-ups at the athletic?
Keith Law: Yes, depending on how significant the player and contract are.

Mart Yanh: Law! Congrats on the new job! Do u think Mookie Betts *wants* to remain in Boston long term?
Keith Law: He wants to go to free agency to maximize his value. That’s his right as a player.

Andy: Does the proposed shortening of the draft help college baseball (more kids coming and staying longer) or make it worse (top prospects more likely to go the minors.) I know it’ll definitely be a whole lot worse for the college kids with less senior signs.
Keith Law: The better senior signs will still get signed; the worst senior signs will no longer have automatic paths into pro ball, but their odds of seeing the majors were minuscule. They could go play indy ball or in this new “Dream League” if that proposal came to fruition, and if they do well enough, they’d get opportunities in pro ball. Senior signs only typically get $1000 as a bonus, and then the pathetic first-year minor league salary, so it’s not as if MLB is getting rid of lucrative jobs here.

Eric: Just a statement for the MAGA people: If you support the troops, you should be vehemently against war, especially ones based off ego and narcissism.
Keith Law: The best way to support the troops is to bring them all home.

Mike D: Are you heading to ST this year? Florida or Arizona?
Keith Law: I go to both every year.

Moshe Rabeinu: How far away is Florial?
Keith Law: His pitch recognition hasn’t gotten better in the last year-plus, and he’s been hurt, so right now I don’t see what his role is in the majors.

Blangadanger: Had a chance to play Parks over the holidays. An excellent, quick and immersive game with gorgeous art of US National Parks. Have you had a chance to play?
Keith Law: I haven’t, but it was on my list of 2019 games I wanted to try but never got to play. I’ve heard great things.

Dirk Gently: Let’s say MLB suspends Jeff Luhnow for a year — how do they keep Luhnow from simply working remotely, directing his assistants on what to do, etc.? Are they going to be able to spot check cell phones/emails? And would it be that hard for Luhnow to do is job remotely that way?
Keith Law: Yes, they would be able to check or ask for cell phone records, emails, etc.

Evan: Are your prospect packages going to follow a similar format as they did in ESPN, or will you change it up?
Keith Law: Editorial decision. The content will be very similar.

Adam: hey Keith, subscribed to your newsletter but after your most recent e-mail went out. Is there any way to read the post online?
Keith Law: On the signup page there’s a “letter archive” link.

Jason: Will Monte Harrison amount to anything?
Keith Law: The odds are very much against him … the approach is nowhere near good enough, despite the tools.

Nick: What do you make of JD Davis season last year? His defensive struggles aside, do you think he continues to make an ascension to potential star?
Keith Law: No, I think that was his peak.

Big Fan: Hi Keith, congrats on the move! Do you have any insight into where or when Josh Donaldson will sign?
Keith Law: No, that is not and has never been something I cover.

Nick: Dom Smith for Tarik Skubal. Who says no?
Keith Law: Pretty sure the Tigers would say no.
Keith Law: Skubal might be their best pitching prospect at this moment.

Sean: Bart, Ramos and Hjelle are being sold to us Giants fans as the first wave of the future. Should I get excited or pump the brakes a bit?
Keith Law: Their system is improved, but not yet good. They’re a draft or two away from that, and they didn’t add any prospects at the deadline last year, I assume because the team had a bit of a mirage run of contention.

Grant: Which books coming out in 2020 are you most excited to read?
Keith Law: I don’t really track those unless it’s an author I especially like (Jasper Fforde has one coming).

PA Prospects: What high schoolers will you be watching locally this spring?
Keith Law: Near me, probably nobody. Austin Hendrick is a prospect but on the other side of the state from me.

Andy: Bring them home, and then fund the programs to help them with their physical and mental well being.
Keith Law: We both know that’ll never happen. You’re asking politicians to spend money that doesn’t produce results they can show off for the cameras.
Keith Law: Evidence-based treatments for PTSD etc. exist, but they’re tough sells to constituents.

Jesse B: Do you think Honeywell can still throw the screwball? Do you think he can still be a starter?
Keith Law: After two missed years, he’s probably going to end up in relief.

BenL: Congrats on the new gig, Klaw! Just a housekeeping question: Klawchats to continue here, be moved to the Athletic’s site as this new venture takes shape, combination of both? Thanks, as always
Keith Law: Klawchats are here and will stay here for the foreseeable future.

Matt W: I agree the Mets should free Dom Smith but with their depth as thin as it is, can they really afford to part with more of it? Have you seen their list of ST invites?? Egads.
Keith Law: It’s OK, they have Tebow.

John: How much of the Phillies issues in the draft do you think are down to bad draft evaluation (ie, you didn’t love the picks at the start), poor player development after they drafted the guys, or just bad luck? The poor drafts have obviously really hindered their teardown/rebuild
Keith Law: They’ve chosen poorly more than anything else.

Erik: Awkwafina’s gonna lose Best Actress to another cosplayer. Will the Academy ever change?
Keith Law: That’s always the safe bet, right? Who played a historical figure, or played a character with a disability, or played a character who was LGBT+? I only get worked up about the Oscars because they mean money: if your film wins something, more people will go see it, and more money for good films should mean more money for good films in the future.

Dave: Trump: hawk or dove? Displays both at times
Keith Law: LOL, don’t fall for it, Dave.

Bradley: Thoughts on the Luis Robert deal? Seems to be a good deal for the player’s long term financial secure and nice to not see blatant service time manipulation from a team. Win win?
Keith Law: Win win, mostly. He has no leverage in this situation and the team has it all, but he did fairly well for a player with 0 MLB games, and I’m glad to see the White Sox pushing this model of paying prospects early.

PD: Have you addressed how your coverage with interact with Sickels?
Keith Law: It doesn’t. My coverage is independent of anything else at the Athletic. I’ll do more or less the same stuff I did for ESPN+, just at a new site, and over time adding some additional types of content like labor coverage.

dan: Tony Gonsolin Future starter or Reliever?
Keith Law: Yes, he will be one of those things.

jeff: does skubal come up before mize?
Keith Law: Mize finished 2019 hurt, and didn’t look right just before he got hurt, so right now Skubal is closer to his debut despite Mize’s pedigree and superior pitch mix.

Ron: Twins need a first baseman. Wouldn’t trying to work a trade with the Mets for Dom Smith make sense? Better than trying to sign Donaldson? What would it take?
Keith Law: What do they have that the Mets would value for 2020? The Mets are trying to win now, but so are the Twins. Do the Twins have surplus somewhere I’m not thinking of? Maybe if a third team is involved and the Twins send a prospect to team 3 and get Smith, so team 3 sends the Mets whatever it is they need (pitching?).

Brian: Let’s be honest, the guy that claimed he would cancel the subscription to The Athletic that he doesn’t currently have because of your hiring will be tough to top.
Keith Law: That was quite special.

Kevin: Do you think Dalbec will be the Red Sox opening day 1B in 2020?
Keith Law: I do not.

jeff: Gore over 125 IP in 2020? rookie of the year?
Keith Law: Unlikely, and almost certainly not.

Todd: Are Mets fans over estimating Steve Cohen as an owner? Just because someone has ample means doesnt necessarily mean they’re a great baseball owner
Keith Law: I think Mets fans are latching on to the fact that he is Not a Wilpon.

Turner : If DL Hall were to improve his control this year, would he have #2 starter potential?
Keith Law: He has #2 starter potential already, if he improves both his command and his control.

Sam: Will you be active at all in the comments section of your articles?
Keith Law: No, again, no time for that. I’d rather chat here and leave it at that.

Eric: How worried would you be about giving a 4 year deal to 34 year old Donaldson? Better than trading prospects for Bryant?
Keith Law: Someone asked earlier at what point Donaldson should just take the best deal … if he has viable four-year offers on the table, he should take one. Given his age and some of his injury history, that feels like more than he should have reasonably expected from the market.
Keith Law: I’d rather trade something for Bryant, but of course we don’t know what that ‘something’ is.

Danial: Looking forward to more klawtent; does your new job come with new leeway or restrictions and how can we expect that to be reflected in your work?
Keith Law: I don’t know how to answer that other than to say keep reading. I don’t think I have more leeway in prospect coverage. ESPN never restricted me there.

Ben: Theoretical Question: Your world series window is the next 1-2 years. If you have a prospect who is guaranteed to be a lights-out reliever right now and has the potential to be a top-end starter but isn’t ready yet, do you use them in the bullpen now before your window closes, or screw the window and think about the best use of the asset?
Keith Law: David Price 2008. I use the guy in relief right now, judiciously (like, don’t burn him out by using him three days in a row).

Todd: Keith, why do republicans just deny climate change? Is it strictly business related denial?
Keith Law: The Party itself? Yes. Climate change mitigation is bad for many industries, including coal, oil/gas, mining, and much manufacturing, so their opposition to it is a financial matter – they do not face future costs of a warmed and damaged planet.

Mark R: Any decent Disney eats this year?
Keith Law: We ate at the Holiday Festival kiosks more than anything else.
Keith Law: That’s probably it for Disneyworld trips for me for a while, since I no longer have the magic pass.

Oliver: It’s kind of weird that the Padres traded for Taylor Trammell and Trent Grisham then blocked each of them in LF for the next two years with Tommy Pham. With Myers stuck (sigh) in RF because Hosmer is entrenched at 1B (heavy sigh), can either play good enough CF defense to make up for the shortcomings of Myers and Pham?
Keith Law: Myers ends up on the bench or released. He’s not blocking anybody.

Jason S: In 2025, is Kelenic, Rodriguez and Marte the best OF in baseball?
Keith Law: The easy answer is ‘no,’ since 1) that’s five years away and 2) we have no idea if all three will stay healthy and develop up to their potential.

Rico: What are your expectations for Gavin Lux this year and long-term?
Keith Law: I think he’s an All-Star in the long term, an above-average regular right now, and the best argument for the Dodgers not trading for Lindor this winter.

Rico: Benintendi struggled last year after a breakout 2018. Any reason for the increasing K% and lack of power? What do you expect going forward?
Keith Law: I don’t know what’s gone wrong with him; in a year when everyone seemed to hit the ball harder and hit for more power, he hit for less. It’s easy to say it’s in his swing – there is some of that – but his approach, esp vs LHP, has gone backwards too.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for the kind words on my move to the Athletic, and for continuing to show up here for Klawchats. I’ll keep these going on Thursdays until we get to spring training and travel gets in the way. In the meantime, watch this space or my email newsletter for further announcements on upcoming content!