Klawchat 4/26/18.

My latest Insider post looks at four potential first-round arms for this June’s draft.

Keith Law: Seeing their children caught up in the latest Klawchat.

Mike : Would the Padres have been better off starting Tatis Jr. in high A?
Keith Law: Is this an overreaction to a slow April? No.

J: Is Mitch White hurt? Was trying to locate where he is assigned and what he is doing…?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s in extended.

addoeh: Given your the book you were reading earlier in the week; whose solo career do you prefer, Peter Gabriel or Phil Collins?
Keith Law: I don’t know Gabriel’s work between leaving Genesis and So well enough to answer that.

Megatron: Hey Keith, thanks as always for these chats. My question is about the White Sox double play combo. How are Anderson and Moncada putting up such good numbers (in fWAR, wRC+, OPS, etc.) despite sky high strikeout rates?
Keith Law: Only Moncada’s K rate is sky high, and his .385 BABIP won’t last either. Anderson has a 22% K rate, and he already has more than half as many walks in 2018 as he did in all of 2017 or 2016.

Alex: Per Fangraphs, Javy Baez’s ’17 wRC+ was 98, so far in ’18 he’s at 186 (SSS I know as less than 100 PAs). What’s a realistic full season expectation?
Keith Law: His rate stats are skewed by the 4 IBB he’s received (and only 2 unintentional, which I assume happened because the pitcher sneezed mid-delivery). I think a well above-average wRC+ is reasonable, something in the 120s, driven by power and what appears to be a consistent .330ish BABIP ability.

Dante: What’s the most obscure place you’ve traveled to see a prospect?
Keith Law: Kendallville, Indiana, to see Jarrod Parker; or Baxley, Georgia, to see Byron Buxton. Baxley was 2:40 from Macon, which is itself nearly 2 hours from Atlanta.

Steve Dalkowski: Has Severino made any changes to his delivery (or to his body) that would make you think there’s less chance of a breakdown in the next couple of years than you originally thought?
Keith Law: He has bulked up a lot, but I don’t think we know if that reduces breakdown risk, so I’d say no. Hell, anyone throwing that hard that regularly is probably at a higher than average risk, since one of the few things we know contributes to injury is regularly pitching with high (for you) velocity.

Frank: seems like the Yankees signing machado this offseason to a massive deal wouldn’t make sense anymore given didi, andujar, and gleyber look like long term pieces in the infield. what do you think?
Keith Law: Machado is a clear upgrade over Andujar anyway, so even though I believe Andujar will be at least an average regular, trading him and signing Machado still makes the team better.

Sonny Gray: WTF is wrong with me?
Keith Law: I discussed that with Buster on the podcast today. It might be about pitching style, not injury or stuff.

Grant: Keith, I know you’ve read Hyperion, but have you ready any other Dan Simmons? I’m currently reading The Terror and really enjoying it so far.
Keith Law: No, just Hyperion.

Glen: Andujar has been phenomenal lately, but am I wrong to be concerned he might be Maikel Franco?
Keith Law: Much better approach than Franco at the same age.

Tom F: What’s your take on Adbert Alzolay? Future 3-4 starter potential or bullpen guy in the bigs eventually? Doesn’t seem to have a ton of strikeout stuff
Keith Law: Future 3-4 starter. Reliever in the majors this year.

Mike: Is the third-time-through-the-order penalty just a fancy name for looking at pitch count? Is there anything to suggest that facing the 19th hitter on 70 pitches is harder than facing the 18th hitter (after adjusting for hitter quality of course)?
Keith Law: Yes, the data indicate that both variables are contributing factors: Increasing pitch count and hitter familiarity.

Mike: I feel like most 21-year-olds who put up a .300/.340/.540 line in AAA with 13 HR/18 SB in a half season at a premium position would have gotten a lot more press than Adalberto Mondesi did, probably because he’d already been so bad in the majors and lost his rookie status. Do you think there’s any reason to think he’s just a quad-A player or does he still have a good shot at a career?
Keith Law: More than a 4A guy, but doing that in AAA after you’ve played two months in the majors (and seen MLB pitching) is less impressive or predictive than doing it when you’ve never been above AA.

Darren: Hi Keith,
I would love to hear you discuss Didi and his growth. We knew he had a stellar glove but I dont’ think anyone saw this coming. Following in the footsteps of Jeter was one thing, ridding himself of the defense first guy took work, but now he is looking like one of the best all around players in MLB. Impressive.
Keith Law: Remember when Kevin Towers (RIP) comped him to Jeter, and everyone, myself included, scoffed? Guess Kevin out-scouted us all. I thought Didi had a swing geared for power but nowhere near the strength for it. He’s gotten a lot stronger, and the ball itself has helped him (is it a coincidence that he never hit 10 homers in a season until 2016?). The part that seems even more out-of-nowhere, and that might also indicate that he really is a top ten player in the AL, is that he’s suddenly walking like crazy without any increase in K rate.

BRM: Have you looked at the GenCon event list and if so, what are you looking forward to?
Keith Law: I glanced at it, but haven’t signed up for anything yet because I am finalizing my panel schedule in the writers’ symposium too.

Alex: Are there any San Diego area HS players I should make a point to go see?
Keith Law: Not this year. Only three SoCal prep players on my top 50 – Turang, Winn, McClain.

Greta: Hello Keith. Ever read any Hubert Selby, Jr.? If not, I’d recommend starting with Last Exit to Brooklyn or Requiem for a Dream.
Keith Law: I haven’t, and knowing what little I know about those books, I don’t think I’d like either.

Drew: Do you think the NL East will remain this competitive all season, or do you expect the Nats will begin to dominate the division once Rendon, Eaton, and Murphy return?
Keith Law: I would still pick the Nats to win the division. Dominate is too strong, and it doesn’t really matter if they win by one game or ten.

Kevin S.: In the minors, Tyler Austin’s performance got him on the back end of a couple top-100 lists ahead of the 2013 season, at which point he started suffering some really unfortunate injuries. He made it to the bigs, but struggled in limited playing time. Now that he’s healthy and playing with Bird out, he’s really tearing the cover off the ball. Is this just SSS theater, or is he starting to fulfill that promise he flashed five years ago?
Keith Law: Always loved the swing, wrist injuries killed him, so I’m happy to see this production … but you can’t strike out 1/3 of the time and produce like this over the long haul. Something has to give either way.

Josue: You linked to an article that claimed a white supremacist was running for School Board in North Dakota, but the article failed to provide a shred of evidence. I acknowledge he could actually be a real white supremacist, but why didn’t you link to a better article, if so? It essentially just interviews a few people who say they “heard” he is one and another person says he’s on the SPLC’s website as a white supremacist. With all the blunders of the SPLC, such as labeling muslim activist Maajid Nawaz an Islamophobe, or Ayaan Hirsi Ali an “anti-muslim extremist”, why would any logical person take the word of this organization? Who needs evidence when anyone with a different opinion is a white supremacist though, right?
Keith Law: The evidence is that he ran a neo-Nazi party, helped run Stormfront for nearly a decade and was once the assistant to David Duke. You’re also making a specious claim about the SPLC – if they’re wrong on one or two subjective assessments, you want to throw out all their assessments? That says more about you than about the SPLC.
Keith Law: I guess we know he has your vote, though!

Kay: Justin Dunn has had a much better start to this season – still profile as a potential top end starter?
Keith Law: Yes.

Darren: Hello Keith,
I have been a fan of Ahmed Rosario and any discussion recently has people I chat with suggesting he is a better baseball player than fantasy without an impressive offensive upside. Little strike zone discipline or bad/aggressive approach, average hit tool. I know he is young for a lot of power to come, but what do you see his offensive upside being? What would be a reasonable expectation? Thanks for everything.
Keith Law: I think more than an average hit tool. He’s still young and has the same plus bat speed and physical projection he’s always had.

AJ: Why aren’t more teams willing to “buy” prospects, like Atlanta did taking Arroyo’s contract in order to get Toussaint? It seems that several rebuilding teams (ChiSox, Phillies) had the payroll room to absorb a bad contract in order to further bolster their farm systems. Thanks.
Keith Law: I think teams do this in larger transactions – moving money, taking a bad contract for a good one, taking your long contract for my three one-year deals – but deals like the Touki trade, which was “prospect + contract for org player,” look too much like the straight sale of a player and that would be discouraged by the league.

Rodney: Love your chats! I understand why you don’t like ranking players before they have time in pro ball. Has Griffin Canning played enough to give you a sense of where he ranks among Angels prospects?
Keith Law: I ranked him in January, but four starts/16 innings wouldn’t change that.

Tim: Is Peter Alonso the best 1B in the Mets org right now?
Keith Law: I still think Smith would be fine if the Mets would just play him, but Alonso would be a top 100 prospect now (given some graduations & new looks at him) and I think he’s an above-average regular at least.
Keith Law: Maybe Smith will show up on time if he thinks someone is right behind him…

Andy: Where do you think Gregory Polanco’s ceiling is after his first few seasons in the Majors? He’s frustratingly erratic in his on-field production.
Keith Law: Ceiling? Still All-Star. Dude walks, doesn’t strike out excessively, runs, has power, has bat speed … and has a .200 BABIP. I hate to just point to that one number, but good grief, you almost have to try to be that bad on balls in play.

Jo-Nathan: July 2nd guys have verbal agreements????? Do you think the MLB comes down any other teams for this practice?
Keith Law: No, they don’t care. You can only break the rules that they tell you it’s OK to break. Atlanta broke different rules.
Keith Law: The problem is this system incentivizes such rule-breaking. Don’t be surprised when smart people get creative and try end runs around your idiotic method of limiting payouts to Dominician teenagers.

JJ: Last year, the Cardinals had Carson Kelly on the bench behind Yadi Molina for the season, and he basically never played. This year, it’s Tyler O’Neill, basically doing the same thing. The writers at the St. Louis Post Dispatch insist that the youngsters gain a lot from sitting on the bench of the big league club. Wouldn’t they be better off playing every day in Memphis?
Keith Law: Yes. Or playing even semi-regularly in the majors. But that’s not the Matheny way.

Greg: Was watching Tyson Ross go for a 200 pitch no-hitter last week. When he hit 120 pitches, the announcers said “That matches his career high… set four days ago.” There needs to be a manager ejector seat, right?
Keith Law: They had it wrong. The near no-hitter was on 4/20 (whoa), and his previous outing was 107 pitches on the 13th.

Kay: Was reading about Gsellman taking a spot in the rotation – but he seems really dominant out of the bullpen, throwing harder and looking like he really embraced the new role. Where does he have the most value going forward?
Keith Law: I’d try him as a starter again.

Moncada: You said my .385 BABIP won’t last- which I agree with. But my batted ball stats and exit velocity do suggest that I am capable of sustaining an above average BABIP, right?
Keith Law: Yes, as would simply seeing the bat speed and hand strength. But that K rate is a huge limiting factor, and probably isn’t going down without major swing changes.

Adam D.: Any early buzz about who the Giants might take at #2? I would like to see an upside play like Stewart, but it seems like the general strength of the college players near the top, combined with their refusal to play the rebuilding game makes them likely to go that route. Thoughts?
Keith Law: The current buzz is that all or at least five of the top six picks will likely be college guys. I wouldn’t rule out Stewart – Dick Tidrow, whose opinion really matters in the Giants’ draft room, saw Stewart’s best outing – but I could see the picks going Mize (1), McClanahan, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, India, or something similar to that. Bart could go anywhere from 2 to 9, Madrigal maybe 5-9, Bohm 3-6. Mize is atop just about everyone’s boards, even guys who don’t like the delivery.

Jo-Nathan: Luke Heimlich’s numbers are way down from a year ago; Think any team drafts or signs him? If yes is this something potential teammates will/can deal with (I couldn’t imagine being this guy’s teammate or worse roommate on the road)?
Keith Law: At this point, I don’t think so, and I certainly hope not.

Teoscar: I should be playing everyday over Grichuk correct?
Keith Law: I think so.

MittyShorph: Keith, I’ve seen see talk about certain college programs that hurt player’s futures with their abuse of pitchers, odd philosophies, etc. If you were advising a high school senior who could go anywhere and play what programs would you suggest?
Keith Law: I do think the tide is shifting, gradually, as we see programs like Florida and Vanderbilt win with good pitching yet without overusing pitchers in general. They’ve recruited better, and built deep staffs relative to most schools. The reign of the College Coaching Axis of Evil – Graham, Marquess, and the late Garrido – is also coming to an end. But we do still see stupid stuff like UConn blowing out Anthony Kay two years ago. And HS coaches have less accountability. Two days before Mike Vasil walked off the mound holding his elbow, he threw an unscheduled, 20-pitch relief inning. How does that benefit him? It’s not like there were scouts there to see him.

addoeh: Going to Kenosha to scout Kelenic anytime soon?
Keith Law: He plays on a travel team so he’s not necessarily in Kenosha but yes, I’ll go see him in the next 2-3 weeks.

Amy: If Betts and Harper were on the market at the same time, who would receive a bigger contract? Let’s assume both have years like they’re on track for now.
Keith Law: I think Harper. No knock on Betts, though. Both tremendous talents, but Harper has shown he can do even more when he’s healthy.

JJ: I’m assuming this is Jackie Bradley (Junior!)’s last year in Boston — great glove, but he’s a mediocre bat, and about to make the big bucks in arbitration. Who’s better suited for center field in 2019: Benintendi or Betts?
Keith Law: Both can play it. I would guess Betts.

Tommy: Taillon ever be consistent enough to be a true #2 starter?
Keith Law: Yes. Also, is consistency required to be a #2? I’ll take 22 great starts and 8 bad ones.

Tom: When will we be able to gauge the effect of the humidor in Arizona?
Keith Law: Better question for guys who really work directly with the data, but I’d guess two years?

MikeM: Has Jawuan Harris of Rutgers come up in any of your draft scouting? If so what round in the draft is he likely to go in?
Keith Law: He has not.

Matt : I’ve recently started playing Ticket to Ride. Is there enough variation in game play between the editions (Europe/Africa/etc) to warrant purchasing a new one beyond the NA version?
Keith Law: Europe adds three important rule changes (ferries, stations, and tunnels) without changing the core game. Beyond that, you either get significant rules changes (UK, France, Pennsylvania), or just weird boards (Nordics, Switzerland).
Keith Law: Holy crap Albies just homered again.
Keith Law: Albies had 22 homers in pro ball before this year and has 8 in four weeks.

Chris: Do you think Sheldon Neuse has the athleticism and arm to be a average defensive corner outfielder?
Keith Law: I would not move him off the infield. It would reduce his value too much.

Matt : Wife and I are headed to Houston for the 1st time. Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Been a few years for me. I liked Underbelly a lot. Oxheart shows up on a lot of best of the US lists, but you have to get a reservation well in advance.

Tommy: Chances Julio Urias ever becomes a relevant starting pitcher?
Keith Law: I don’t think any pitcher has come all the way back from that surgery. It’s usually a career-ender.

Kevin: Would Matz be better served as a long reliever? Stuff is there but not for long…
Keith Law: I’d like to see him in a swing role. Shoot for 120 or so innings a year. That role needs to come back, for every team, or we’re going to end up with nine-man bullpens.

Thomas: You mentioned in a recent draft blog that there just aren’t many players as small as Madrigal in the majors. Just curious – how does he compare to Nick Allen, who was thought as a first round talent but slipped due to concerns about his size? Do they have comparable skill sets?
Keith Law: Allen can play shortstop, and well, and I think he’s a better runner than Madrigal. Madrigal plays second, even now, but I know several directors & cross-checkers who think he has the best hit tool in this draft.

Mat Ji: Do you have a favorite quick weeknight dinner that you find yourself making often?
Keith Law: A few. There’s a pad thai recipe in Isa Does It!, a vegan cookbook, that I like to make because it comes together fast … but I usually add egg and/or chicken. I’ll eat tofu, but my daughter, who is an adventurous eater in general, doesn’t care for it.

Chris: How should the Cards handle Kelly and Knizner?
Keith Law: Knizner is another reason Kelly needs to play regularly – or be traded in a big package for someone else. Buster threw out the idea, which has a negative percent change of happening, that the Giants should deal Bumgarner. If that were to come true, the Cards should call and offer Kelly and one of their young SP prospects and at least one of their top OF prospects.
Keith Law: And that’s probably not enough but it would fit for both teams.

Adam: Buxton finished really strong last year yet started this year still in the 8 hole. When healthy will he be given teh chance to put that speed to work near the top of the lineup?
Keith Law: I assume 1) when he’s off the DL and 2) starts hitting well, he’ll move up. I doubt this is permanent.

Len: With Atlanta not having a 3rd round pick, how would that impact their approach to their first two picks, if at all?
Keith Law: Shaves some $ off their draft pool and makes it harder for them to target an over-slot guy in the third round anyway. I doubt it’ll be noticeable to the average Braves fan, but it might mean missing out on a prep arm they liked in that 3rd-4th round range.

Mike: I could be wrong but I don’t remember you writing up Franchy Cordero in the past as his recent promotion didn’t ring a bell. What do you think his future holds?
Keith Law: I’ve written him up a few times. Power and athleticism with a poor approach, especially breaking ball recognition. Maybe a great fourth OF type if the approach doesn’t improve. I’m glad he’s at least getting some AB now, though. El Paso wouldn’t prove much for him.

Steve K: Colton Welker the real deal?
Keith Law: I think he can hit some, but Lancaster is an insane hitter’s park and he’s been atrocious on the road this year, so I think the answer, if you’re looking just at his stat line, is no.
Keith Law: This is a Rockies problem – Asheville (low-A), Lancaster (high-A), and Albuquerque (AAA) are all great hitters’ parks. Tough to tell what’s real for hitters and which pitchers are developing despite their environments.

Sean: How much additional noise do you think the bad early season weather has added to the usual small sample size randomness?
Keith Law: I think it’s affected a lot of players, hitters and pitchers, majors and minors. I’ve talked to players and coaches who at least believe it has affected them or their charges. Hard to, say, throw a plus breaking ball if you’re struggling to feel your fingertips.

Matt: Hi Keith, anything you notice on film as a cause for Taillon’s recent struggles? Velocity and strike rate seem fine — is he living in the zone *too much*, possibly?
Keith Law: Three great outings, two bad ones. I don’t see that as any particular cause for concern.

Steve: Yawkey Way getting changed due to less than absolute evidence of racism by Tom Yawkey? Overreaction to a family that has donated 100s of millions to Boston charities?
Keith Law: The Red Sox were the last of the original clubs to integrate. That’s evidence enough, dude. Also, it’s a fucking street name.

Adam: Now that Chief Wahoo is gone, can we shift our attention back to the Braves and start asking questions about the appropriateness of the Padres nickname as well?
Keith Law: Chief Wahoo is not gone, and “asking questions” about the Padres is troll behavior.

Zac: Is Gleyber Torres a 30 homerun guy?
Keith Law: Isn’t everyone?
Keith Law: I think he’s a high-average guy but maybe 15-20 HR power. He can hit – swing, recognition, two-strike approach, it’s all there.

Charlie: Is #1 starter still Newcomb’s ceiling if he continues to throw in the low 90’s? He is walking less but does not have the overpowering fastball.
Keith Law: This tweet aged very poorly in the five minutes since you submitted it. And no, I don’t think Newcomb really has the command or even control for that. I don’t think I ever thought he had #1 ceiling, but could be remembering wrong.

Anthony: I saw Zach Lowther at Aberdeen last year and have been monitoring him at Delmarva. Is he a guy to keep an eye on or will the lack of velocity catch up with him at the higher levels?
Keith Law: Huge extension and spin on the fastball. Hitters don’t see it. Ceiling is limited but he is something.

Joe: Keith, you’ve done a good job of educating your readers about the pitfalls of putting too much stock in short sample sizes. At the same time, early knowledge of whether a player has lost or gained a step can provide strategic advantages. How do you strike the appropriate balance?
Keith Law: That’s what scouting, and now Statcast data, can provide, at least for teams.

Amy: Wait, you think Kelly to SF? And Buster to…1B? With Belt traded?
Keith Law: The Giants are heavy on Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart, which would imply a Posey position switch (I can’t believe they would ever trade him). That doesn’t seem to leave a place for Belt, does it?

Ryan Backster : Freddy Peralta. Still meh on him?
Keith Law: Meh is strong. Doesn’t have a big ceiling. Pitching *very* well in AAA, two good home starts in unfriendly Colorado Springs, which I like to see, at least.

Steve: Odds Vladdy Jr is up this year?
Keith Law: I may have said this before, but strongly believe he will debut in Toronto this year. I’d put money on that.

Jesus Sanchez: Am I the top prospect in the Rays system at the end of the year and am I the top OF prospect in baseball as well?
Keith Law: Maybe, and no.

Robbie: Keith how do you reconcile wanting to be right coinciding with certain players failing? I don’t think you would ever necessarily want players to fail, but you are where you are because you are good at evaluating players and I’m sure you want to be right more than not.
Keith Law: I don’t root against players. I may joke about it a little but I can’t do that. Any prospect, no matter who it is, is a kid pursuing his dream. What kind of evil SOB would root against that?

Mike B: Have you seen anything in Corey Ray’s start that makes you think he’s turning a corner this year? I’ve heard he finally had a healthy offseason which may lead to better results.
Keith Law: He’s 2 for his last 30 and has a .301 OBP on the year. Yes, SSS, but he hasn’t turned a corner.

Mac: Have Madrigal and Kelenic moved up draft boards simply by not playing? How much recency bias occurs at the top of the draft?
Keith Law: I’ve joked about that – the best thing to do this spring has been to not play. Kelenic is playing now, though; his standing may be a function of last summer/fall, though, since the pitching he’s seeing this spring is not good.
Keith Law: Acuna is getting all the hits, BTW.

Carlton: What was your initial projection for Degrom? Looking through your old ranks and don’t see him anywhere.
Keith Law: He made my Mets top 10 one year before he debuted. At some point after that he went from a four-seamer to whatever he calls it now, with more life/sink than it ever had befoer.
Keith Law: I never saw him before his debut, which I saw on TV while in Bristol.

parlay: Hunter Harvey ceiling?
Keith Law: If healthy, #1 starter. Has not stayed healthy, and I don’t love the cross-body delivery.
Keith Law: That was foul? (referring to Dansby)

Jax : Not just basing this on his hot start but Grandal getting a Russell Martin type of contract next winter seems likely, yes? Or do you think he would get even more?
Keith Law: I think less, as he’s not the kind of defensive catcher teams seem to favor right now.

Joey: How different is Lewis Brinson now compared to Michael A taylor back when he broke into MLB?
Keith Law: Brinson’s got more whip in his swing and I think both more raw power and a better chance to hit for a decent average.

Joe : Any new names connected with the Braves in the draft? Could Vasil with their second pick be a possibility after his injury?
Keith Law: That’s a situation where them losing the money associated with pick 3 might hurt them. It’ll be hard to go over in the second round. I also think vasil, even hurt, could go before that.

Ryan: What is Cavan Biggio’s ceiling? Can he be a big league regular?
Keith Law: Doubtful.

Justin R: Are no-hitters any real measure of skill? Or largely fluky?
Keith Law: Fluky. Super fun, but not meaningful.

Josh: Tyler Austin and Mac Williamson are two bats that have caught my eye lately. Do you feel they are legit and will be mainstay contributors for the next several years?
Keith Law: Likely no for both.

Michael: Given Josh Hader’s dominance as a reliever, should the Brewers even consider giving him a chance to start in the future?
Keith Law: I think this is the right role for him. He might be OK as a starter but not dominant like he has been/will be in relief.

Ben: Keith, have you played Dead of Winter,
Keith Law: I have not.

Ron: Gleyber is long term 2nd baseman in majors?
Keith Law: He can play shortstop. But they have Honus Wagner over there right now so second base seems fine.

Jon: Given the increase in strikeout rates in current baseball, do you still enjoy baseball as much as earlier in your life?
Keith Law: I consume baseball so differently now that it’s not a fair comparison. I do not think the high-K/high-HR environment is as aesthetically pleasing a product, though. Stolen bases are fun, dammit.

Ben: I’m fascinated by the scouting miss on Aaron Judge even as he got to the upper levels of the minors. Do you think this has changed anything in the scouting world? And what present grades would you put on Judge now?
Keith Law: Whose miss? He was in my top 40 for 3 straight years, I think.

Dd: If/when the Orioles decide to cash out, should Bundy be made available? if yes, would he bring much in return considering health concerns?
Keith Law: They should try it, but I expect him to fetch maybe 50 cents on the dollar because of health concerns, esp around the shoulder.

Nick: Excited that you’re coming to Politics and Prose in DC. Are there any pet peeves to avoid when meeting you and making a book signing request ?
Keith Law: As long as you respect the time of others in line, no, not at all. I’m happy to chat, sign, take a picture, answer your questions, or take your restaurant advice.

Brett: I remember you talking about Taijuan Walker’s delivery and how you were not a fan of his change in delivery to more upright. Any chance that led to TJ?
Keith Law: It’s possible but there was a long lag in between. Tyler Skaggs did the same, but he blew out within a year.

Adam: Dansby just got screwed because of a bad call followed by lack of camera angles
Keith Law: I legit don’t understand how that could have been foul.

Ben: Not a question, but if you haven’t been to Vedge in Philadelphia you should try it at some point. It’s too expensive, but by far best vegan food I’ve ever had. Really amazing cookery.
Keith Law: I haven’t been but would love to try it at some point.

Bud Smith: Fluky? How dare you undermine my no-hitter! Nerd.
Keith Law: Jose Jimenez on line two for you, Mr. Smith.

GIO: Dustin Pedroia was another super small college infielder that some thought was too small for pro ball. How does Madrigal compare to him coming out of college? Similar skill sets?
Keith Law: That’s a bit of revisionism. Pedroia was a shortstop who couldn’t stay there, and who swung uphill to an extent that very few big leaguers then or now do. His size didn’t help him. He was also a 40 runner, and that didn’t help him. Hell, he was balding at 21, which probably didn’t help him. I never saw him as an amateur, but I know our scouts in Toronto were lukewarm, and we had him more in the fourth round than second (where Boston took him). Madrigal is tiny – he’s listed at 5’7″ and around my weight, which, well, look at me and tell me if I look like a big leaguer – but he’s not that unconventional.
Keith Law: OK, that seems like a great question to wrap this up. Thanks as always for reading & for your questions. I am tentatively planning a mock draft for Thursday, since we’re only about five weeks out, and will try to chat around that even if I’m traveling. Enjoy your weekends and Acuña Matata!

Comments

  1. On the Chief Wahoo / Braves question – ignoring the Padres bit – how is it possible that MLB hasn’t told the Braves to quit playing the Tomahawk Chop music over their PA whenever anything good happens? It would be bad enough if it were entirely organic from the fans, but for the team to be affirmatively encouraging it seems like something Park Avenue should be frowning upon.

  2. Keith, regarding your answer to the Houston food question- both the restaurants you mentioned have, unfortunately, closed. Though both have technically rebranded or re-cocepted. Justin Yu closed Oxheart last year, and since, has opened Better Luck Tomorrow, which was named one of Food & Wine’s Best New Restaurants. He also opened Theodore Rex. Underbelly closed on April 1st of this year. The restaurant group still has other concepts, which all are solid, like the beer-focused Hay Merchant or the coffee-focused Blacksmith. If you are heading back there and are looking for other recommendations here are a few more:

    BCN Taste & Tradition
    Hugo’s (Or any of Hugo Ortega’s places)
    Killen’s BBQ (Or any of Ronnie Killen’s places)
    Kitchen 713
    Pho Binh
    The Pass & Provisions

  3. Keith thoughts on Robert Broom of Mercer (sidearmer) throwing 60+ pitches Saturday then 100+ Tuesday?

  4. “Ben: I’m fascinated by the scouting miss on Aaron Judge even as he got to the upper levels of the minors. Do you think this has changed anything in the scouting world? And what present grades would you put on Judge now? ”

    I’m fascinated that scouts couldn’t predict a guy who had never hit more than 20 home runs in a minor league season would hit 52 his first full year in the majors! Seriously, there was plenty to like about Judge, but no indications he’d be an immediate MVP candidate.

  5. Second straight year that Polanco’s disappointing performance has been explained away as just BABIP bad luck. Can’t be that simple, right?

    • The explanation right now is that it’s still April and we’re dealing with minuscule samples.

      EDIT: xstats.org’s xBABIP calculation – for which I cannot vouch, as I haven’t dived into it at all – has a .274 expected BABIP for Polanco this year based on batted ball data. That’s still below league average, but if he did that, with the same walk and power rates, he’d be on pace for a career year offensively.