Here we go, my annual Oscars preview with links to every movie I\u2019ve reviewed on this site. Throw your predictions, disagreements, snubs, and more in the comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Best Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n All Quiet on the Western Front<\/a> What will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n What should win: Everything Everywhere All At Once<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n What was snubbed: Decision to Leave<\/a>, Aftersun<\/a>, The Eternal Daughter<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n I know there\u2019s a wide chasm between folks who think EEAAO<\/em> should win, like I do, and those who think it will be at best a below-median Best Picture winner, but I\u2019m comfortable with my take. Not only do I think the film works extremely well, but it\u2019s also tried to do the most \u2013 it\u2019s an extremely ambitious movie on multiple levels, and succeeds at all of them. There should be a level of difficulty adjustment when considering movies for this honor. My second choice would be The Banshees of Inisherin<\/em>, while Elvis <\/em>would be the biggest travesty, although I haven\u2019t seen Avatar<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Best Actor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Austin Butler, Elvis Who will win: Fraser<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who should win: (pass)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who was snubbed: Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave<\/em>; Song Kang-ho, Broker<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n I haven\u2019t seen The Whale <\/em>or Living<\/em>, since even people who praise Fraser\u2019s performance don\u2019t say kind things about the movie, and I\u2019m not paying $20 to stream a bad film at home, even to hate-watch it<\/a>. Mescal and Farrell were both incredible in their roles and weren\u2019t doing an extended impersonation, like Butler did, but it seems like neither has any chance to win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Best Actress<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ana de Armas, Blonde<\/a> Who will win: Yeoh<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who should win: Blanchett<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who I really want to win: Yeoh<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who was snubbed: Tilda Swinton, The Eternal Daughter<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Best Actress is the strongest category this year, although the nominations don\u2019t adequately reflect how good a year it was for actresses in leading roles. De Armas was not good in a terrible role within an even worse movie, and Williams, while a very skilled actress, gave an affected performance that barely qualified as leading. I could name a half-dozen better performances than de Armas\u2019s, and did in my Blonde<\/em> review. Of the contenders, Riseborough had no shot even without the controversy, and I\u2019d give Blanchett a slight edge over Yeoh, but Yeoh is the sentimental favorite for many reasons and Blanchett already has one of these things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Best Supporting Actor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin Who will win: Quan<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who should win: Quan<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who was snubbed: Gabriel Labelle, The Fabelmans<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n I think this is the lock of the night, and I\u2019m good with it, although Gleeson did give something close to a second lead performance in Banshees<\/em>. Quan is another sentimental favorite, since EEAAO <\/em>marks his return to acting after a twenty-year absence, but he\u2019s absolutely essential to that movie and his character has the most range of any of the four main ones. Hirsch has the weakest case, since he\u2019s on screen for less than ten minutes, and this seems like a way to honor an older actor at the end of his life rather than an argument that this was one of the five best performances by an actor in a supporting role in 2022. He\u2019s very good in that small role, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Best Supporting Actress<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Who will win: Bassett<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who should win: (pass)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who was snubbed: Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019ve only seen Banshees <\/em>and EEAAO<\/em>, although I\u2019ll get to Black Panther<\/em> soon \u2013 I loved the first one, like most people, but that has made me disinclined to see the sequel, especially given its running time. (Seriously, enough with the three-hour movies. Hollywood needs a pitch clock.) I also haven\u2019t seen The Whale<\/em>, so I can\u2019t say specifically that de Leon belonged over her, but de Leon was the only truly redeeming quality her film had. Chauwas great in the underrated The Menu<\/a><\/em>, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Best Directing<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Todd Field, T\u00e1r<\/em> Who will win: Spielberg<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who should win: No opinion<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who was snubbed: Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n This is my pick for the category where something wacky might happen. I could see any of these candidates winning, and while the betting lines have the Daniels as huge favorites, I\u2019m not sure \u2026 is it not a serious enough movie? Is this the one place the voters honor Spielberg for making a movie about how great movies are? (They could do that with original screenplay, too.) Does that create a chance for one of the other three to sneak in? I don\u2019t have a strong opinion on this award this year, despite seeing all five of the nominees; I would just say I don\u2019t think \u00d6stlunddeserves it, because the movie itself isn\u2019t very good, and the direction in the middle section is too weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Best Writing (Original Screenplay)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Todd Field, T\u00e1r<\/em> Who will win: The Daniels<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who should win: McDonagh<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin<\/a>
Elvis<\/a>
Everything Everywhere All At Once<\/a>
The Fabelmans<\/a>
T\u00e1r<\/a>
Top Gun: Maverick<\/a>
Triangle of Sadness<\/a>
Women Talking<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/em>Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
<\/em>Brendan Fraser, The Whale
<\/em>Paul Mescal, Aftersun<\/em>
Bill Nighy, Living<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/em>Cate Blanchett, T\u00e1r
<\/em>Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie<\/a><\/em>
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
<\/em>Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/em>Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway<\/a>
<\/em>Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
<\/em>Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin<\/em>
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/em>Hong Chau, The Whale<\/em>
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin<\/em>
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once<\/em>
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin<\/em>
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
<\/em>Ruben \u00d6stlund, Triangle of Sadness<\/em>
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin<\/em>
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
<\/em>Ruben \u00d6stlund, Triangle of Sadness<\/em>
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n