The Oscars are happening tonight, so once again, I\u2019ve assembled a post with some loose predictions, my own picks for each award, and, most importantly, links to every one of these films I\u2019ve reviewed. I\u2019ve seen all of the Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay, and Best Cinematography nominees, and all of the films in the four acting categories. I still have one or two films left in the Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature categories, and didn’t see any of the short films this year, although I’ll seek out the winners afterwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To be completely clear, I have zero inside information to inform these predictions. I read the same stuff you do, and don’t claim to know anything more than the average moviegoer. This is all just for fun \u2013 but I do have certain films I’d like to see honored, because I think when good films win important awards, it encourages studios to finance more good films.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Best Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Belfast<\/em><\/a> What will win: Drive My Car<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n What should win: Drive My Car<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n What was snubbed: The Lost Daughter<\/em><\/a>, Passing<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n So my real prediction is that The Power of the Dog<\/em> doesn’t win \u2013 in essence, I’d bet the field instead. I know CODA <\/em>is now the popular favorite, and it might win. It’s not that great a film, and the idea of a film about deaf people that centers the experience of a hearing person winning BP is not that great, Bob, but in a year without a clear front-runner, a fractured vote could give us a surprising result. I have argued with friends who care about this stuff for a few weeks that Drive My Car<\/em> is at least undervalued by oddsmakers; the more international Academy electorate gives it a real chance, even though it’s probably no more than third most likely to win and maybe fourth. But I could also see it being first on a minority of ballots, and in a year where no single film runs away with it, it might sneak in there. I might be wishcasting, but I’d rather argue for a scenario that is unlikely but not improbable than just tell you something you already know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I’d also like to point out that the two films I thought most deserved BP nods but didn’t get them were Netflix movies, and seriously, fuck you to whatever Netflix exec decided to put time and money into promoting Don’t Look Up <\/em>for this award when they had two far superior and more deserving films right there. Passing<\/em> didn’t get a single Oscar nod, and I put that squarely on Netflix’s shoulders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Apropos of nothing, there is a small chance that CODA<\/em> wins this and nothing else \u2013 it was only nominated for two other honors. No film has won Best Picture and no other Oscars since Mutiny on the Bounty <\/em>in 1936.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Best Director<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza<\/em> Who will win: Campion<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who should win: Hamaguchi<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who was snubbed: Denis Villeneuve, Dune<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Villeneve shouldn’t just have been nominated over Branagh; he should be taking home this Oscar. I don’t think it would be remotely close, and I say that as someone who thought Drive My Car<\/em> was the best movie of 2021. I didn’t think West Side Story<\/em> was anything special, but Spielberg’s direction was not among its flaws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Best Actress<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye<\/em><\/a> Who will win: Chastain<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who should win: Colman<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who was snubbed: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n If nothing else, I am glad that awards discourse has coalesced around the idea that nominating actors for doing impersonations is at least not in the true spirit of these awards. Three of these nominees are portraying real people; four of the nominees for Best Actor are too, if you count King Macbeth, although in that case, they didn’t try to make Denzel Washington look like his real-life counterpart. In this category, Chastain and Kidman just aren’t very good \u2013 they’re imitating, but hardly acting, although in both cases the scripts are the main problem. I’d be fine with any of the other three winning. Reinsve’s performance absolutely sustained that movie, though, and she would have been my pick. Ben Zauzmer noted that this is the first time in the ten-nominee era<\/a> that no film has gotten a Best Picture nomination and had its lead actress get a Best Actress nomination, and the tenth time in Oscar history. By the way, Cruz’s odds have been soaring in the last few days, and I’d be thrilled if she won, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Best Actor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
CODA<\/em><\/a>
Don’t Look Up<\/em><\/a>
Drive My Car<\/em><\/a>
Dune<\/em><\/a>
King Richard<\/em><\/a>
Licorice Pizza<\/em><\/a>
Nightmare Alley<\/em><\/a>
The Power of the Dog<\/em><\/a>
West Side Story<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast<\/em>
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog<\/em>
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car<\/em>
Stephen Spielberg, West Side Story<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
<\/em>Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers<\/em><\/a>
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos<\/em><\/a>
Kristen Stewart, Spencer<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n