With the Oscars coming up tonight, I’ve put together this post with some loose predictions, my own picks for each award, and, most importantly, links to every one of these films I’ve reviewed. I’ve seen everything nominated in all of these categories except one documentary, one foreign film, and one animated short.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Chris Crawford and I also recorded a podcast (for the second year in a row) to preview the Oscars, which you can download via iTunes<\/a> or SoundCloud<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Best Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n BlacKkKlansman<\/em><\/a> Who will win: Roma<\/em> Snubs: I don’t understand why the Academy would only fill eight of its ten allotted spots for nominations in this category, especially in a year with easily twice that many films worthy of the honor. The two most obvious candidates the Academy overlooked here were First Man<\/em><\/a>\u00a0and If Beale Street Could Talk<\/em><\/a>, but I’d also have pushed for Burning<\/em><\/a>, Cold War<\/em><\/a>, even Widows<\/em><\/a>\u00a0before pablum like Green Book<\/em> or Bohemian Rhapsody<\/em>.<\/p>\n Best Director<\/strong><\/p>\n BlacKkKlansman<\/em> Who will win: Roma<\/em> (Alfonso Cuar\u00f3n) Snubs: I’m surprised Bradley Cooper wasn’t nominated for A Star is Born<\/em>.<\/p>\n I’d be very surprised if Cuar\u00f3n lost this one, even if\u00a0Roma<\/em> doesn’t win Best Picture.<\/p>\n Best Actor<\/strong><\/p>\n Christian Bale, Vice<\/em> Who will win: Bale The Academy really botched this category, giving four of five nods to actors who portrayed real people, three of them giving us extended impersonations that were more remarkable for their accuracy than for any depth of performance. The fifth is playing a role that has been played three times before. Is that what the Oscar is supposed to reward? Is this acting, or just impersonating?<\/p>\n It seems like Malek has the popular momentum, and maybe he and his prosthetic teeth will win the award, but I’ll be a bit contrarian here and predict Bale takes the honor because the role is also more ‘important’ – Vice is an unabashedly political film, an outright attack on the legacy of the George W. Bush years, that has to resonate with the generally left-wing voters of the Academy.<\/p>\n Snubs: Woof. Ethan Hawke for First Reformed<\/em><\/a> and Joaquin Phoenix for You Were Never Really Here<\/em><\/a> come to mind immediately. Ryan Gosling was great in First Man<\/em>; Stephan James was solid in If Beale Street Could Talk<\/em>.<\/p>\n Best Actress<\/strong><\/p>\n Yulitza Aparicio, Roma<\/em> Who will win: Close The Wife was the worst movie I saw in 2018 – it is awful, sentimental, hackneyed, one-dimensional dreck – yet Close seems likely to win for a fine performance of a poorly-written character.<\/p>\n Snubs: No shortage of whiffs here either – Rosamund Pike for A Private War<\/em><\/a>,\u00a0Joanna Kulig for Cold War<\/em>, Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade<\/em><\/a>, Viola Davis for Widows<\/em>, Natalie Portman for Annihilation<\/em><\/a>, Juliette Binoche for Let the Sunshine In<\/em><\/a>, Claire Foy for First Man<\/em> (perhaps as a Supporting Actress).<\/p>\n Best Actor in a Supporting Role<\/strong><\/p>\n Mahershala Ali, Green Book<\/em> Who will win: Ali I put an asterisk there because I’m torn between Ali and Driver – BlacKkKlansman<\/em> does not work without Driver’s performance. Grant is wonderful as well.<\/p>\n Snubs: Rockwell belongs here least of all – he’s just doing a good impression of W. as an amiable post-frat boy. His slot should have gone to Steven Yeun for Burning<\/em>, and you could make a case for Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther<\/em>.<\/p>\n Best Actress in a Supporting Role<\/strong><\/p>\n Amy Adams, Vice<\/em> Who will win: King King has been penciled in as a lock since before this movie even hit theaters, even though she’s not in the film very much and her role isn’t all that well-written. Weisz and Stone both had far more to do – there’s a real debate over whether those are supporting roles at all – and do more with what they’re given.<\/p>\n Snubs: Elizabeth Debecki for Widows<\/em>. Her performance was the film’s biggest revelation and she had by far the best story arc of the script; Adams’ spot should have gone to her.<\/p>\n Best Adapted Screenplay<\/strong><\/p>\n The Ballad of Buster Scruggs<\/em><\/a> What will win:\u00a0BlacKkKlansman This feels like the spot where Spike Lee gets an Oscar, even though the screenplay for\u00a0BlacKkKlansman<\/em> was all over the place. Of course, I think\u00a0Burning<\/em> deserved a nomination here, certainly over the Coens’ screenplay for what was basically an anthology.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Best Original Screenplay<\/strong><\/p>\n The Favourite What will win:\u00a0The Favourite<\/em> As much as I loved\u00a0Roma<\/em>, the screenplay itself is the least important part of the film – it’s the look, feel, and sound of the thing, as well as the lead performance by Aparicio.<\/p>\n Best Foreign Language Film<\/strong><\/p>\n Capernaum<\/em><\/a> What will win: Roma<\/em> I haven’t seen Never Look Away<\/em>, from the director\/writer of The Lives of Others<\/em>, because it’s 188 minutes long. This feels like a dead lock for Roma, but my #1 movie of 2018 was South Korea’s submission, Burning<\/em>, which made the shortlist (of nine films) yet missed the cut for the final five. It absolutely should have taken Capernaum<\/em>‘s slot.<\/p>\n Best Animated Feature<\/strong><\/p>\n Incredibles 2<\/em> What will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse<\/em> This also feels like a lock, although I think Spider-Man<\/em> is notable only for its animation style, with a very undistinguished story that relies on superhero tropes and far too much violence for its audience. Isle of Dogs may have come out too early in the year, and it may have suffered from criticisms of its portrayal of Japanese culture, but it’s a better movie across the board – and so is Mirai<\/em>.<\/p>\n Snubs: Tito and the Birds<\/em><\/a>, a Brazilian film with gorgeous animation and a good story, would have been a far better choice than Ralph Breaks the Internet<\/em>, which is a mostly forgettable sequel.<\/p>\n Best Documentary Feature<\/strong><\/p>\n Free Solo<\/em>
Black Panther<\/em><\/a>
Bohemian Rhapsody<\/a><\/em>
The Favourite<\/em><\/a>
Green Book<\/em><\/a>
Roma<\/em><\/a>
A Star is Born<\/em><\/a>
Vice<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n
Who I’d vote for: Roma<\/em><\/p>\n
Cold War<\/em>
The Favourite<\/em>
Roma<\/em>
Vice<\/em><\/p>\n
Who I’d vote for: Roma<\/em><\/p>\n
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born<\/em>
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate<\/em><\/a>
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody<\/em>
Virgo Mortensen, Green Book<\/em><\/p>\n
Who I’d vote for: Cooper<\/p>\n
Glenn Close, The Wife<\/em><\/a>
Olivia Colman, The Favourite<\/em>
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born<\/em>
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n
Who I’d vote for: Colman<\/p>\n
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman<\/em>
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born<\/em>
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?<\/em>
Sam Rockwell, Vice<\/em><\/p>\n
Who I’d vote for: Ali*<\/p>\n
Marina de Tavira, Roma<\/em>
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk<\/em>
Emma Stone, The Favourite<\/em>
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite<\/em><\/p>\n
Who I’d vote for: Weisz<\/p>\n
BlacKkKlansman<\/em>
Can You Ever Forgive Me?<\/em>
If Beale Street Could Talk<\/em>
A Star Is Born<\/em><\/p>\n
<\/em>What I’d vote for:\u00a0If Beale Street Could Talk<\/em><\/p>\n
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice<\/em><\/p>\n
What should win: The Favourite<\/em><\/p>\n
Cold War<\/em>
Never Look Away<\/em>
Roma<\/em>
Shoplifters<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n
What I’d vote for: Roma<\/em><\/p>\n
Isle of Dogs<\/em><\/a>
Mirai<\/em><\/a>
Ralph Breaks the Internet<\/em>
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse<\/em><\/p>\n
What I’d vote for: Isle of Dogs<\/em><\/p>\n
Hale County, This Morning, This Evening<\/em>
Minding the Gap<\/em><\/a>
Of Fathers and Sons<\/em><\/a>
RBG<\/em><\/p>\n