{"id":6422,"date":"2018-03-04T08:00:20","date_gmt":"2018-03-04T13:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/?p=6422"},"modified":"2018-03-03T21:23:16","modified_gmt":"2018-03-04T02:23:16","slug":"oscars-preview-and-picks-2018-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/2018\/03\/04\/oscars-preview-and-picks-2018-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"Oscars preview and picks, 2018 edition."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If you haven\u2019t heard it yet, Chris Crawford and I recorded a <a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2EZJmOd\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">podcast previewing tonight\u2019s Academy Awards<\/a>, but I also wanted to be able to put my predictions here for everyone to see, as well as links to all of the nominees I\u2019ve reviewed so far. As always, bear in mind I am not a professional film critic in any way, and I have no inside knowledge at all of who or what is likely to win any of these awards. I just have opinions.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ll do a full ranking of all of the 2017 films I\u2019ve seen once I get <em>Loveless<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2DqC7yf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Call Me By Your Name<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2DXgPIG\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Darkest Hour<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2xyPmJU\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Dunkirk<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2xRsy7y\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Get Out<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2ALCstD\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Lady Bird<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2BOsYyl\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Phantom Thread<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2BHriCg\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Post<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2D6tRyD\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Shape of Water<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2DAtbTs\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who should win: Of the nine nominees, I would probably vote for <em>The Shape of Water<\/em> over <em>Dunkirk<\/em> but would be fine with either winning.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: I think <em>The Shape of Water<\/em> is going to edge out <em>Three Billboards<\/em> given the blowback against the latter\u2019s mishandling of a police brutality subplot that\u2019s treated as a joke. I still think there\u2019s maybe a 5% chance <em>Get Out<\/em> shocks the world, though.<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: Got \u2018em all this year.<\/p>\n<p>Who was snubbed: <em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2A1n4cI\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Florida Project<\/a><\/em> was my #1 movie of 2017, with only a few films left for me to see to put a bow on last year. I don\u2019t assign letter grades to movies a la Grierson &#038; Leitch, but that would be my only A, I think.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Director<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Dunkirk<\/em>, Christopher Nolan<\/li>\n<li><em>Get Out<\/em>, Jordan Peele<\/li>\n<li><em>Lady Bird<\/em>, Greta Gerwig<\/li>\n<li><em>Phantom Thread<\/em>, Paul Thomas Anderson<\/li>\n<li><em>The Shape of Water<\/em>, Guillermo del Toro<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who should win: Nolan.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: I said in the podcast with Chris that I could see Gerwig (first woman) winning, but I think I\u2019d probably still bet on del Toro.<\/p>\n<p>Who was snubbed: Sean Baker for <em>The Florida Project<\/em>, making a masterpiece with a cast of largely non-professional actors.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Actor<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, <em>Call Me By Your Name<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Daniel Day-Lewis, <em>Phantom Thread<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Daniel Kaluuya, <em>Get Out<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Gary Oldman, <em>Darkest Hour<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Denzel Washington, <em>Roman J. Israel, Esq.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who should win: Day-Lewis gave the best performance. I think I\u2019d prefer to see Kaluuya win, and it was a real breakout role for him, but DDL is just a master.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: Oldman, who should win for Best Impersonation, but that\u2019s not really the same thing, is it?<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: <em>Roman J. Israel, Esq.<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Who was snubbed: John Cho for <em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2kXsXRn\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Columbus<\/a><\/em>, a wonderful movie almost nobody has seen.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Actress<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sally Hawkins, <em>The Shape of Water<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Frances McDormand, <em>Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Margot Robbie, <em>I, Tonya<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Saoirse Ronan, <em>Lady Bird<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Meryl Streep, <em>The Post<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who should win: Of the three I\u2019ve seen, I\u2019d give it to Hawkins.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: Everyone seems to think McDormand has this locked up. She\u2019s good, but I think her role was much less demanding than Hawkins\u2019 or one of the actresses I think was snubbed.<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: <em>I, Tonya<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Who was snubbed: Daniela Vega for <em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2BHXzwo\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">A Fantastic Woman<\/a><\/em>, and perhaps Alexandra Barbely for <em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2ERFfR4\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">On Body and Soul<\/a><\/em> or Vicky Krieps for <em>Phantom Thread<\/em>. This was the strongest category of all this year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Supporting Actor<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Willem Dafoe, <em>The Florida Project<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Woody Harrelson, <em>Three Billboards<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Richard Jenkins, <em>The Shape of Water<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Christopher Plummer, <em>All the Money in the World<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Sam Rockwell, <em>Three Billboards<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who should win: Dafoe.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: Rockwell.<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: <em>All the Money in the World<\/em>. This seems like an acknowledgement of the effort rather than the performance.<\/p>\n<p>Who was snubbed: Michael Stuhlbarg (who appeared in three Best Picture nominees this year) for <em>Call Me By Your Name<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Supporting Actress<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Mary J. Blige, <em>Mudbound<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Allison Janney, <em>I, Tonya<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Lesley Manville, <em>Phantom Thread<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Laurie Metcalf, <em>Lady Bird<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Octavia Spencer, <em>The Shape of Water<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who should win: Of the three I\u2019ve seen, Metcalf.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: Janney.<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: <em>I, Tonya<\/em> or <em>Mudbound<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Who was snubbed: Holly Hunter for <em>The Big Sick<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Original Screenplay<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2xpKBCV\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Big Sick<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Get Out<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Lady Bird<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>The Shape of Water<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri<\/em><\/li>\n<ul>\n<p>Who should win: I\u2019m torn on this one, but I think I\u2019d vote <em>Get Out<\/em> here.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: I have no idea. I\u2019ll guess <em>Lady Bird<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: None.<\/p>\n<p>Who was snubbed: <em>The Florida Project<\/em> and <em>Columbus<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Adapted Screenplay<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Call Me By Your Name<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>The Disaster Artist<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Logan<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Molly\u2019s Game<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Mudbound<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who will win: <em>Call Me By Your Name<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: <em>Call Me<\/em> is the only one I\u2019ve seen.<\/p>\n<p>Who was snubbed: <em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2hMk8YJ\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Sense of an Ending<\/a><\/em>, another very good, quiet film that almost nobody saw last year. It\u2019s adapted from the Booker Prize-winning <a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2hMk8YJ\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">novel by Julian Barnes<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Animated Feature<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>The Boss Baby<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2C3cjmJ\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Breadwinner<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/2018\/03\/03\/coco-and-this-years-animated-shorts\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Coco<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Ferdinand<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2FhlYsB\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Loving Vincent<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who should win: <em>Coco<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: <em>Coco<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: <em>Ferdinand<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Who was snubbed: This category has become a disaster thanks to the change in voting rules I mentioned yesterday, favoring big studio releases over indie films. But there were a ton of eligible films that were #BetterThanBossBaby, including <em>The LEGO Batman Movie<\/em> and <em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2EWiESw\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Girl Without Hands<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Short Film &#8211; Animated<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201dDear Basketball\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dGarden Party\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dLou\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dNegative Space\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dRevolting Rhymes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who should win: Three of these are great; I\u2019d probably vote \u201cRevolting Rhymes,\u201d which is on Netflix. I reviewed them <a href=\"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/2018\/03\/03\/coco-and-this-years-animated-shorts\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">all in one post<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: I assume \u201cLou\u201d because it\u2019s Pixar. It\u2019s also great, as is \u201cNegative Space.\u201d I am really hoping \u201cDear Basketball,\u201d easily the worst of the five, doesn\u2019t win on the basis of Kobe Bryant\u2019s involvement.<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: None.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Documentary Feature<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2oidvOw\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Abacus: Small Enough to Jail<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2F5G48b\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Faces Places (Visages, Villages)<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2neWlmM\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Icarus<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2jsT0eW\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Last Men in Aleppo<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2EOkXvd\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Strong Island<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who should win: This really depends on what you want from your documentaries &#8211; should the film really expose or explain something, or can it just show you a slice of life? I liked four of the five nominees and would probably vote <em>Faces Places<\/em> by a nose over <em>Icarus<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: I think <em>Faces Places<\/em> so they can put Agnes Varda &#8211; or a cardboard cutout of her &#8211; on the stage.<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: None.<\/p>\n<p>Who was snubbed: I did not see <em>Jane<\/em>, but given the wide critical acclaim of that film (about Jane Goodall), I was shocked it didn\u2019t get a nod. I also thought <em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2hdx4U7\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">City of Ghosts<\/a><\/em> would get a nomination over <em>Last Men in Aleppo<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Short Film &#8211; Documentary<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201dEthel &#038; Eddie\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dHeaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dHeroin(e)\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dKnife Skills\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dTraffic Stop\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who should win: Of the three I\u2019ve seen, \u201cKnife Skills\u201d is a wonderful watch but \u201cTraffic Stop\u201d (on HBO) and \u201cHeroin(e)\u201d (on Netflix) are both so incredibly important.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: I really don\u2019t have a guess on this one.<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: \u201cEthel &#038; Eddie\u201d and \u201cHeaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405\u201d. The latter is on YouTube but I couldn\u2019t get through a few minutes of it because it was so upsetting right at the outset.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Foreign Language Film<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2BHXzwo\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">A Fantastic Woman<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>The Insult<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Loveless<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2ERFfR4\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">On Body and Soul<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"http:\/\/klaw.me\/2Bq1c7K\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Square<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who should win: Of the three I\u2019ve seen, <em>A Fantastic Woman<\/em>, which also would have been worthy of a Best Picture nomination.<\/p>\n<p>Who will win: I think <em>A Fantastic Woman<\/em> gets this.<\/p>\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen: I\u2019m going to see <em>Loveless<\/em> this week, weather permitting, and it has earned critical plaudits on par with the best movies of the year. I also missed <em>The Insult<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Who was snubbed: I haven\u2019t seen either of these, but thought <em>In the Fade<\/em> (which won the Golden Globe in this category) or <em>Foxtrot<\/em> (that trailer looks amazing) would sneak in here.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Short Film &#8211; Live Action<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201dDeKalb Elementary\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dThe Eleven O\u2019Clock\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dMy Nephew Emmett\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dThe Silent Child\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201dWatu Wote\/All Of Us\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I\u2019ve only seen \u201cDeKalb Elementary,\u201d which is superb, well-acted, and unfortunately very, very timely. I haven\u2019t been able to find any of the other four online in any format.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you haven\u2019t heard it yet, Chris Crawford and I recorded a podcast previewing tonight\u2019s Academy Awards, but I also wanted to be able to put my predictions here for everyone to see, as well as links to all of the nominees I\u2019ve reviewed so far. As always, bear in mind I am not a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[972,925,926,215,613],"class_list":["post-6422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-2017-best-picture-nominees","tag-2017-movies","tag-academy-award-for-best-picture","tag-movies","tag-oscar-winners","entry"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6422","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6422"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6422\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6434,"href":"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6422\/revisions\/6434"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}