My second mock draft of 2024 is now up for subscribers to The Athletic.
Keith Law: You say you love me but not quite yet. Klawchat.
JP: If you had to assign a 20-80 grade to this year’s draft class as a whole, what would it be?
Keith Law: It’s a 40. There have been worse, there could conceivably be much worse, but this is well below the median for me.
Paul: Do you anticipate a substantial change in the Nats draft prospect preference given the front office additions over the past year, or do you expect Rizzo’s classic archetypes to prevail?
Keith Law: New group making the picks, so I expect a new philosophy. I doubt it will contradict Rizzo’s preferences but I expect a different tone to the draft.
KC: SSS, but Matt Shaw is struggling and younger James Triantos is doing what we thought Shaw would do. Is he a legit prospect and will Shaw turn it around?
Keith Law: Not just SSS but the batted-ball data on Shaw is way better than the superficial stats. Don’t scout the stat line.
Jay: I am a loyal Astros whose views align with most of what you’ve said over the years about the franchise. Does Dana Brown have a chance to be successful? I hope so.
Keith Law: Not if Crane’s Cronies are pulling the strings. I was at least glad to see they acknowledged the sunk cost on Abreu and took him off the roster – I expected them to cling to the contract. Now, whether they’ve changed the process that led to such a clearly bad signing is another matter.
J.: If Ernie Clement keeps playing high level defense at 3B and maintains .700+ OPS, he’s an everyday guy, yeah?
Keith Law: No. He’s doing virtually all his damage against LHP, and in this tiny sample (136 PA) he’s faced a disproportionately high percentage of lefties (41%). I’d also argue that the .700 OPS he’s posted is on the less valuable side, with an OBP under .300.
Hogie: The Nats’ rotation as a whole seems to have made great strides. Is it still small sample size/smoke and mirrors with some HR luck, or have guys like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker shown you something?
Keith Law: I’m taking the under on Parker (wildly lucky so far, no out pitch) and Irvin (still can’t get LHB out, doesn’t have an average pitch for them) and the over on Gore.
JJ: You’ve indicated that this year’s draft class is weaker/shallower than past years, correct? I’ve heard the same thing about this year’s NFL draft, and the upcoming NBA class as well. Is that a coincidence, having off years in all three sports?
Keith Law: I’ve heard the argument that the 2020-21 cycle of losing an entire spring/summer for most kids is the reason for this, but I’m not sure why that would be true when it didn’t adversely affect last year’s class.
John: Do you view the top of the class high school bats (Griffin/Rainer) as star ceiling types or something less than that? Which of those two would you pick first if it were your call at this point?
Keith Law: The answer to any question like that is on my ranking of the top 100 prospects in the draft.
Will: Initial thoughts/reaction on Skenes so far?
Keith Law: Not really.
J: The CWS broadcast showed that Nick Kurtz and James Tibbs have fairly significant platoon splits-would this concern you if you were drafting in the top 10?
Keith Law: Yes, it’s a factor, but not a ‘kill’ for me on its own because a lot of amateur players just lack much experience facing LHP. I’d dig deeper into just why they have those splits, such as whether they’re getting crushed by certain pitch types or locations, and talking to the area scouts involved to estimate the odds of them improving in that area.
Punk in Drublic: What Mets prospects do you think have improved the most this season?
Keith Law: Too broad a question, sorry.
Kevin: Kristian Campbell is tearing up AA with a 426/500/741 slash after tearing up High A. Going from High A to AA seems to be the biggest jump in the minors. I know it’s a SSS for the year but do you think he is close to being a top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: He’s a real prospect but you are citing a slash line from 13 games. That is a drop in the bucket.
Ed H: Hey Keith, Rest in piece Say Hey Kid… so if you were in the front office, what would you say to the GMs/managers to play prospects like Marco Luciano more? A few errors at now he’s not allowed to bat anymore…
Keith Law: Teams have to adjust their approach to position player call-ups – so many of them are struggling on first exposure to MLB pitching and many teams aren’t willing to give them the long runway to make adjustments. It’s easier for non-contenders, but even contenders have to consider the call-up decision differently – how do we handle player X if he strikes out 50% of the time at first? Are we willing to guarantee him 100, 200, more PA before deciding whether to return him to AAA, where he’ll probably hit .480 because the pitching there will look like Little League compared to what he saw in the majors?
Ken: Is Gunnar Hoglund anything more than a back of the rotation starter?
Keith Law: Is he even that?
Guest: How shocked are people going to be when Gage Jump blows out early in his MLB career. Jay Johnson doesn’t care I guess. Shameful
Keith Law: Nobody will be shocked, not in pro ball at least. Jump already blew out once, too.
Big Fan: Klaw, how much are teams shying away from using a high pick in a 1B given recent history?
Keith Law: In a stronger draft, the 1B would go a little lower, but this draft just isn’t very strong.
André René Roussimoff: In retrospect, was infield shifting actually doing much to suppress offense or has pitching development and coaching just improved more than hitting has? (Rest in power, Willie Mays.)
Keith Law: I don’t think banning the shift has helped much if at all. It’s theater.
KC: I know the perception of Biden is meh, but he does have wins to point to and while I’d prefer a younger President, why isn’t there more panic about what could/would happen if Trump gets in office. It would be legitimately disastrous for our country and for the disenfranchised.
Keith Law: The mainstream media is busy bothsidesing this. The coverage should be focused on one candidate’s pledges to persecute his enemies and further erode the rights of huge swaths of the population.
Sam: Jacob Gonzalez’s numbers look good this year after a poor start to his pro career. WIll he be in top 100 contention if he keeps it up?
Keith Law: He’s slugging .399 this year. The top 100 isn’t just a ranking of performance, but that’s not pushing someone who was off the list on to it, either.
MIKE S: Any book recs about Roman Empire and/or Vatican ?
Keith Law: I, Claudius. Perhaps not what you were asking for.
John: Hey Klaw, How back is Druw Jones? Top 50/25izh?
Keith Law: Jones was on my top 50 this winter. He was also on the top 50 I posted three weeks ago.
Chris: Are any of these players in the upper system potential next year starters for the Yanks at 1B, 2B, 3B? Rice (assume you think he has less chance than Wells to catch), Rumfield, Durbin, Vivas, Peraza, Hardman?
Keith Law: Rice can’t catch. Peraza might end up a starter, but that’s it from that list. Rice has too much swing and miss on stuff in the zone, and it’s a function of his swing.
Matt: I know that fans and some writers can overreact too early when a young player struggles(like fans who complain that Elly de la Cruz is a disappointment because he didn’t show up as an MVP at 22). Are there examples of teams giving up too early on a young player (a version of MLB ready prospect fatigue)?
Keith Law: Gary Sheffield comes to mind. Brandon Phillips too.
Guest: How does Bazzana as a prospect compare to Matt McLain last year?
Keith Law: Do you mean McLain in his draft year? He had a broken hamate for part of that spring and didn’t get a chance to put up big numbers or even show what sort of power he had.
Jared: Wondering which of the Orioles prospects as you see as the “easiest” for team to move in possible trades, given their glut of talent, current roster construction and which prospects are desirable to other teams.
Keith Law: They could easily trade two outfielders and not even notice – Mayo is the best of them and the one I’d keep if possible, but he has to be in that group with Kjerstad, Cowser, even fringier guys like Stowers if they can fill out a trade. Norby and Westburg would also have a lot of value as guys who could step right into a major-league role but who the Orioles don’t entirely need.
J: What position do you think Seaver King initially plays in pro ball?
Keith Law: Depends on who drafts him but my best guess is someone tries him out at SS again.
Jerry: If the Astros are in the same place at the deadline, should they give serious consideration to trading Alvarez, Tucker, or Valdez? Seems like those would be the only ones who would bring a substantial return.
Keith Law: I’d really try to extend Tucker and shop the other two. You build around guys like Tucker.
Dan: Is Lazaro Montes simply doing what he was expected to do in A-ball this year, or has he shown something that changes how evaluators are viewing him?
Keith Law: His pitch selection is improved from last year.
Chris: long term thoughts on Gil as a starter?
Keith Law: Didn’t think he could start pre-TJ with a non-functional changeup, but now he has a plus one and that makes him a high-end starter for me.
Ken: Where do you see Vanderbilt RHP Bryce Cunningham falling in the draft?
Keith Law: solid season but college relievers don’t typically get much above the fourth round.
Mike: Why wont Bal call up Kjerstad?
Keith Law: I don’t know. They seem too committed to Cowser, who’s been a replacement-level guy for two months now, and undercommitted to Kjerstad.
Brian: What position would you move Marco Luciano to? 2nd? LF?
Keith Law: I think LF and you just let him hit.
Michael: Why is Kris Bryant so bad? You can’t say injuries
Keith Law: Why can’t I? That’s the most parsimonious explanation.
JR: A couple months ago, the Mets/Dodgers was the Saturday game of the week on Fox. Fox was having technical difficulties that day, so for the first few innings you couldn’t hear the announcers, but you could hear all the sounds of the game (the crowd, the crack of the bat, the batter being announced, etc.). It was awesome. Wish that was a viewing option.
Keith Law: I’ve said this for years – some announcers are great and I would listen to them (Benetti, Sciambi, the comedy act that is the Phillies’ TV booth), but sometimes I’d rather just hear the ambient sounds of the game.
CVD: It looked like Dylan Crews had started to settle into AA, but his numbers weren’t overwhelming. Agree with the promotion to AAA?
Keith Law: Yes, he was ready.
Dusty Rhodes: Were we wrong to question Jacob Wilson as the first of the non-big 5 drafted last draft? He’s been tearing it up.
Keith Law: Yes, it was a huge reach given who else was on the board.
Gordon: Going to the bay area this weekend to catch an A’s and a Giants game. Favorite restaurants, things to do in SF? Is the colosseum really that bad?
Keith Law: The A’s stadium is a dump. I haven’t been to the area in years but Cotogna and Del Popolo stick out in my mind.
Ricky Morton: Elijah Green. It’s over, right?
Keith Law: Way too soon for that.
Joseph: Have your thoughts changed at all on the viability of Nick Gonzales?
Keith Law: Viability?
Donald: Hi Keith,
I loved your scouting notebook on the Hartford/Somerset games. Do you have any immediate plans to see Portland in person? Aside from the Mayer/Anthony/Teel trio, I’m curious about Kristian Campbell. He’s been mashing this year but his swing is absolutely ugly. What have you heard about him as a prospect?
Keith Law: They don’t come down here till the second half of July; if the group is still there I’ll definitely go see them.
KC: How do players like Biggio, Volgenbach, Dalbec, etc. maintain their roster spot year after year?
Keith Law: Inertia.
Eric: Hi Keith – loved the mock draft earlier today. You noted that Jac is one of the names under consideration for the White Osx at 5. Given the relatively lackluster start to Andrew Vaugh’s career (as well as other recent highly-drafted first basemen, like Torkelson), do you think the White Sox would go with another college first baseman?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t let Vaughn/Torkelson deter me from taking any 1b. I would consider whether their failures carry any lessons for evaluating future bats at any position.
romorr: Have you heard/seen anything that points to Coby Mayo being able to handle 3B, at least for a few years? I’ll wait to ask you about Sammy and his defense, after he gets more time behind the dish.
Keith Law: I think he’s better than he was when drafted but probably still better suited to RF/1B.
Moose: Thoughts on Seattle’s transitioning of Logan Evans to the bullpen so they can call him up this summer? Will it seriously hamper his development as a starter (which Dipoto says is still how they view him in the long term)?
Keith Law: Don’t mind it because they weren’t likely to get him make 25 starts this year in the minors. They do have to be mindful of how they use him in the majors – he’d be better suited to longer outings with more rest.
KC: Do you watch the WNBA at all?
Phillies: Do you think Johan Rojas will ever hit enough to be passable as an everyday CF?
Keith Law: The only sports league I watch besides MLB is the NFL for the Eagles.
Keith Law: Rojas could do that, but he needs both strength and time.
Eric: Is Edgar Quero turning into a GUY at this point?
Keith Law: I think of it more as him returning to his 2022 form, when he really looked like a GUY, then somehow lost his power last year.
Ken: When does MLB press the panic button on John Fisher’s move to Vegas and the lack of progress on the stadium? No way this stadium is built by the 2028 season.
Keith Law: I’m just guessing but I bet there’s some panic already in the MLB offices. They have to see how bad an idea this is.
Keith Law: Vegas is a terrible market for MLB. It will have one of the smallest populations and possibly the worst income demographics of any MLB market. And climate change is going to make living and working there much, much worse.
Fresh: If the Nats are still in contention for a Wild Card spot in the wildly mediocre NL at the deadline, would you hold onto Thomas/Finnegan/Harvey/Winker or sell, given that it could be a seller’s market with so many ‘contenders’ and few teams willing to pull back?
Keith Law: I’d like them to take a Rays approach and selectively sell while also possibly buying. Lane Thomas has had a nice couple of years there, but he’s not a long-term piece for them. The four guys you mentioned are all on the margins and won’t be there the next time this team wins 95 games.
Lenneal: Can Nacho Alvarez start?
Keith Law: Leaning yes.
Woodsy: Who are the best case scenario prospects to get to the Red Sox at 12?
Keith Law: I think I outlined that in the draft today – you can see scenarios where a Rainer or Yesavage gets there. No sense yet on what teams think of Montgomery’s injury.
Simon: Have you watched any of the Cricket World Cup?
Keith Law: No.
Ken: Is Darell Hernaiz an everyday player, or just a utility guy? Where should the A’s play him?
Keith Law: Chance for a regular, most likely outcome is utility IF. Not a shortstop.
Brian: Heliot Ramos has been an absolute menace for a month, the Giants themselves didn’t even appear that high on him, he mostly forced the issue. Does he look like he has a chance to stick as a regular?
Keith Law: I think he’s a regular. He’s rocking a .414 BABIP this year with a 29% K rate. He’s going to come back to earth – but I think he can be an everyday guy, lower OBP with power.
Ben: TWP’s are becoming more commonplace ever since Ohtani’s success. Are there any you have your eye on right now you believe can do well at both hitting and pitching?
Keith Law: TWPs are becoming more commonplace in college/the minors. They are not becoming more common in the majors because it’s next to impossible to do. Ohtani’s a unicorn.
Guest: Any reason to get excited about DJ Herz, or was that last start just a one- off against a poor hitting team?
Keith Law: The latter.
Guest: While the Nats may want to take a Rays approach, I’m guessing you think the Rays should take a traditional firesale approach given they’re 6 below .500 and Pythagoreas says they’re really 11-12 below. Rasmussen and Springs coming back and a possible Caminero return in the second half aren’t going to save them.
Keith Law: Depends on where they are in a month.
Dallas: Do you have a top tier of draft prospects this year? Is Condon in a tier by himself? If I’m the Guardians, I establish a top tier and take the guy who costs the least. If Condon (or Bazzana) is by himself, I take him.
Keith Law: I think it’s Condon, Bazzana, and Wetherholt (if healthy) in tier 1.
Keith Law: But I have Condon at 1.
André René Roussimoff: When Jurickson Profar was in the minor leagues, you predicted he’d be an All-Star level talent. You were right!
Keith Law: Hey, I never said when he’d be an All-Star…
Danny: Have you heard anything about Henry Lalane and Carlos Lagrange’s status?
Keith Law: Both still on the IL.
Eric: keith still believing in climate change hoax
Keith Law: How dumb do you have to be to still be a climate change denier? Do you not believe that CO2 and methane levels have increased substantially in the atmosphere, or do you think that there’s some sort of magic here where that doesn’t change the climate? It’s beyond magical thinking. It’s delusion.
Bob: What kind of car do you drive ?
Keith Law: Bitchin’ Camaro.
Candler: What do you think the ceiling on Ezequiel Tovar is? Super aggressive approach but the results are impressive so far
Keith Law: He’s an elite defender with pop but the approach is a 30. Away from Coors he has 41 Ks and 4 BB this year.
Alex (CA): Can you shed some insight on what’s going on with River Ryan?
Keith Law: He pitched the other night for OKC. Sat 98 with the cutter at 93-94. Still effectively rehabbing as he didn’t throw any breaking stuff.
Ben: Is Xavier Isaac beyond what you predicted he’d be at this point? Speaking of which, any word on his status? Can’t find anything on him since last week.
Keith Law: No, he’s showing the same strengths and weaknesses I described before the season. He’s been horrendous vs LHP.
nelson: I’m sure there’s an obvious reason that I, not being a scout, do not understand but why is it scouts are comfortable writing reports about players they see in person take a handful of ABs, but will call 100 or more ABs a small sample size and not indicative of future results?
Keith Law: Because those are two entirely different things. Scouts are evaluating mechanics, athleticism, approach, etc. A hitter’s mechanics are not subject to the same random variation that his results are.
Steve: What is your take on how all-stars should be selected? It seems the pendulum has swung way too far in favor of “guys having a great first half” rather than actual stars. I’ve always thought players should at least play at an all-star level for a full season before being considered, with exceptions for rookies with real prospect pedigrees and of course the proviso that every team must be represented.
Keith Law: I’m with you – this is a marketing game, put the stars in, no one is turning on the game to watch Joey Rando who had a great April and May start the game over Mookie Betts.
Roberto: You ever been to Tuscany area? Any recs ?
Keith Law: Yes but the last time was in 1999 so probably not useful.
Danny: Do you feel differently from preseason about Roderick Arias or George Lombard? Arias has some great tools but he’s run scary strike out rates in 2 of his 3 pro seasons so far
Keith Law: Arias belongs in short season, which of course doesn’t exist, so thank Rob Manfred for that.
Ken: I know he’s been hurt, but what do you think of the A’s Max Muncy? I thought starting him in Vegas was really aggressive. Are the A’s rushing him? Assuming Jacob Wilson is the SS of the future, where should the A’s play Muncy?
Keith Law: I agree it was really aggressive and I think Muncy might be a UT while Wilson … well, he might be a UT too if he doesn’t hit the ball harder, but at least he has a better chance to be a regular.
Chris: Have you ever seen a player with good mechanics, athleticism, approach, etc., but did just did not perform in the MiLB or MLB?
Keith Law: Josh Vitters had one of the best swings I’ve ever seen. He never did make any adjustments to his approach.
Jesse: Bryce Boettcher out of Oregon have a chance at going in the first few rounds?
Keith Law: I had to look him up, which probably answers your question. He’s a senior who isn’t performing particularly well.
romorr: I like every Orioles prospect, but you really turned me on to Joseph Anthony Ortiz. And even though he’s not an Oriole, I am very happy with how he’s playing. Love a guy who puts the work in, and gets rewarded.
Keith Law: I’m just thrilled he finally got an opportunity to play every day. I know people in the O’s system who loved him, but he wasn’t getting a chance once Holliday reached AAA.
Howie: Thanks as always for doing these Keith and apologies if you’ve received this already. But how long do you run with Rice before you make a deal for a 1B/3B if you’re Cashman. I don’t think Rizzo is going to come back as the old guy. And their in-house options don’t seem super appealing.
Keith Law: Rizzo looked toast before the injury. I’m fine giving Rice a month before going outside. He does hit the ball pretty hard when he hits it; I just question whether he’ll hit it often enough.
Corey: Red Sox roster question – if Mayer and Anthony are ready, Story healthy + Hamilton is legit, how do you configure the roster given you have one extra IF and OF ? They trade Yoshida by retaining $, move Devers to DH and Story to 3B ? Trade Abreu for SP ? How would you handle the roster construction moving forward ?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, Story and Hamilton are not players you let block your best prospect.
Guest: should the padres be sellers at the deadline? It doesn’t seem like they could do anything in the playoffs.
Keith Law: They’re currently in that mess of teams 1-2 games under .500 who are all effectively tied for the last two WC spots. They’re not selling if that’s still true.
Dr. Bob: Hey, Keith. I understand why a team would underdraft a player at the top to sign him to an underslot contract. But why would the player go along? Hey, I was drafted in the first round and I want first round money.
Keith Law: They agree to it beforehand.
Tyler: If you want to just say, explicitly, “the media should help Joe Biden get elected instead of Donald Trump” nobody is stopping you.
Keith Law: I never said any such thing. I said the media is not doing its job of reporting fairly and accurately on the threat to our democracy that Trump and his ilk pose.
Alex (CA): Does Ethan Salas debut before the age of 20?
Keith Law: It’s possible. It’s more likely if Preller is still the GM in 2026.
Guest: Do you have any insight on what’s going on with Jordan Walker? Is he not making adjustments or do you think the Cards have messed him up? Or is the jump to the majors just that difficult? Thanks!
Keith Law: The jump is that difficult. He got there very quickly and I don’t think he had to make many significant adjustments on the way up. I wish the Cards had been more patient with him.
Jerry: Should the Blue Jays trade Bichette and/or Vladdy before the deadline to maximize the return? Will Atkins do it if he is worried about his job?
Keith Law: It’s better for his job if he trades them for good returns, no? Rizzo was never in trouble in DC, but I imagine his standing with ownership improved when he traded Soto for a massive haul of prospects – and two years on it looks just as good if not better.
Ryan: Deyvison De Los Santos & Adrian Del Castillo are both raking this year – is that just Reno stat inflation or have there been real improvements there?
Keith Law: The ballparks (Reno and Amarillo) in that system are massive hitters’ parks. I don’t think either guy is actually that good.
Big Mike: Is Gavin Cross back on the radar as a legitimate prospect? The numbers obviously look much better, but haven’t seen him to know if it’s for real or not.
Keith Law: Yes, maybe not the guy I thought he’d be in college but definitely back on track to be a regular in an OF corner.
Corey: In my Sox question, i assumed that Mayer is the SS. Do they just move Story to 2B and have Grissom and Hamilton as UT ? When Anthony is ready, do they keep Abreu as 4th OF or move him for something else ?
Keith Law: Who’s playing LF in your scenario? Yoshida isn’t good – weird how Red Sox fans who trolled me after he had a good first month all went silent there – and Abreu/Anthony could just play the corners, no?
JP: Do you believe Orelvis Martinez’s turnaround will translate in Toronto, or do you think he’s getting the call too early?
Keith Law: I bet he struggles at first but I am also fine with the callup.
Ben (MN): Is there any real way to determine how long of a leash to give a former top prospect who has never made it? I’m thinking Alex Kiriloff on the Twins for example. After debuting in 2020 and showing flashes but never putting it together for any consistent run of success, is there any real way to determine when it is time to move on in favor of other young players?
Keith Law: There’s no single answer, but I think you anticipated that in your question. And teams haven’t figured it out either – we have seen teams move on too soon, or hang on too long, to prospects who struggled. Kirilloff’s situation is harder because he’s been hurt so often in his career.
Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Anything to Billy Cook in Norfolk? He’s 25 but is hitting perfectly well, with good zone contact numbers.
Keith Law: I don’t think so – seen him a lot, great org player, might be a 4A guy in the end.
BigApple3am: Can you rank these mets pitching prospects in order best prospect in your eyes:
Scott
Sproat
Tidwell
Tong
Keith Law: Scott is the best one. Tong has made the biggest jump this year – his FB really plays.
Jay: This week on Prospect Progression Is Often Non-Linear: see the examples of Jurickson Profar and Amed Rosario. Both were top prospects (I think both topped out at 1), Profar was nearly out of baseball to begin 2024 and now leads the NL OF in fWAR. And Rosario doesn’t have the same impact this year, he is a productive member for the Rays filling multiple holes in a lineup desperate for offence slashing 300/320/415.
Keith Law: Great post. Rosario is still just 28, and if he could learn to walk more than once a month, he might be an above-average regular.
Guest: Any opinion on the two righties out of NJ: Meccage and Levonas
Keith Law: Saw Meccage, missed Levonas (the weather around here didn’t help). Meccage’s velo ticked up, but I think the FB would play fine at 92-94 rather than 94-97, and his CB might be a 60.
Big Mike: So Cross is getting there. Blake Mitchell is a legitimate prospect. Is there anyone else in the Royals system you see yourself considering for your next list?
Keith Law: Mitchell is striking out 31% of the time, so I’m a little concerned, although I agree he is a prospect and he might be another guy who’d be great if short-season still existed. Maybe Noah Cameron?
Jay: Looking at the Pirates top 40 list from FG today, and it looks like their list is VERY pitcher heavy. How many of those guys would we have to give up to match with the O’s glut of position guys? Or would it be wiser to trade Keller and have the SP prospects fill the hole and hopefully get back more in return?
Keith Law: I don’t know if Baltimore would trade for pitching prospects, but those two organizations do line up well enough that someone needs to just shout ‘get a room’ to them already.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll do another mock draft probably the first week of July, and I’ll update that top 100 ranking between now and the draft too. Stay safe!