Keith Law: Really don’t mind if you sit this one out. Klawchat.
Brett: Is Ralphy Velasquez a guy, or could be a GUY?
Keith Law: The bat looks like a GUY, but he’s only playing first base now and that raises the bar significantly (versus catching).
Matt: How excited should I be about Wichrowski?
Keith Law: Great arm, up to 96-97 with a really sharp slider (maybe a sweeper, I hate that term), no pitch for lefties – it’s FB, SL, cutter, and the cutter isn’t great – so right now it’s a relief profile. Arm action seems fine to start; maybe he can learn a splitter or split-change to give him that extra pitch he needs for LHB?
Josh: Is Matt Wilkinson an actual prospect or just old for his level?
Keith Law: He’s definitely old for his level, and his season line is a bit skewed by one incredible start (6 IP, 15 K!). I’d rather say we just don’t know, and that he should at least be in high A now, given the results. LHB are striking out half the time they face him, which is a pretty good starting point.
Zirinsky: Hey there Keith. Thanks for doing these chats. I’m curious: how would you handle what’s going on on various college campuses (protests, etc.) if you were an administrator at one of them where there was a lot of activity?
Keith Law: I can tell you what I wouldn’t do: send in large groups of heavily armed police and hope I didn’t just create another Kent State. It’d be nice if they learned a single lesson from past protests. There’s also a great piece in the Atlantic today about how some of these same schools have touted their ‘activist’ credentials and talked up freedom of expression … and now they’re zip-tying professors and expelling students.
Dallas: Hi Keith- hope you are having a great day and I throughly enjoy your work. My question is regarding the development of the Pirates position players. We are in year 5 of the Cherington Era and several bats (Suwinski, Davis, Cruz, etc) are struggling mightily. Is there hope these guys can turn it around, or is the outlook as bleak as it appears?
Keith Law: Suwinski was never a ‘guy’ like the other two as a prospect; last year looked like a pretty big fluke. The others were very highly-rated prospects, for totally different reasons, but I think it’s fair to ask the question – and note that some of this goes back to the previous regime, as well. They really haven’t developed a hitter into an offensive star since Reynolds, who they got in a trade when he was 22 and already reasonably developed. Davis fits their mold of guys who can hit the ball hard, but don’t do it often enough. Cruz is unique among their guys in that it’s about approach and his unusual size, rather than too much weak contact.
Justin: Is there anything in Cade Povich’s arsenal thats actually improved from last year, or is this just a small sample stellar chunk where his true talent hasn’t really improved?
Keith Law: He’s working a lot more with a cutter now, and that probably explains a lot of the improvement, along with some good luck on BIP.
Justin: Over or under 60 wins for Oakland?
Keith Law: Over.
SamG: Cam Collier appears to have a nice start to the season. Obviously small sample size. Do you expect he plays the entire season in Dayton, or do you expect a promotion to AA if he continues to play well?
Keith Law: He’s 19; I hope they leave him in Dayton all year, or close to it. He’s performing very well overall, but obviously there’s some aggressiveness there early in counts that pitchers will exploit at some point.
J: Was Theo Gillen close to making your Draft top 50?
Keith Law: No, but he should have been, and he’ll be on the update in the top 30 or so.
Dana: Austin Wells isn’t terrible behind the plate! Not a Gold Glover, but somewhere between below average and average. Are you willing to issue a formal mea culpa on that one?
Keith Law: He is way worse than you are saying. Already a ton of balls getting past him. Also hard eye roll at “formal mea culpa.” The fuck does that even mean?
Matt K: Thank you for chatting, Keith. As a Brewer fan, very excited for the kids they already have up in the majors, and the ones to come. Do you think Sal Frelick will be able to start elevating more to get his ISO into a more helpful area – sorta what Tyler Black has seemed to?
Keith Law: Don’t think Frelick’s ever going to be a high ISO guy – could be a high average, high doubles type.
Matt: Should Drew Thorpe get called up to the majors soon, or is keeping him as far away as possible from Chicago best for his development (and general wellbeing)?
Woody: Are CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore making the leap this year? And where do you think Abrams’s long-term defensive home is? Second base?
Keith Law: Thorpe: No idea why he’s in AA. I would get him to AAA and see what happens there with his below-average FB. He’s not missing a ton of bats in AA right now, but he’s too good of a pitcher (in terms of feel, mixing pitches, command) for that level. I wouldn’t call him up tot he majors now or soon.
Keith Law: Abrams: He was on my breakouts list, so of course I hope this is real. I thought we’d see more hard contact, and we are, even though his top-end contact quality hasn’t changed.
Gore: I want to believe, and there are some things here I think are sustainable, like the improved strike-throwing, and at least some of the reduction in hard contact allowed. He’s such a good athlete that I figured at some point he’d get that delivery consistent enough to be a low walk guy.
Justin: Do we have any idea what’s up with River Ryan? Any chance this injury results in him having high quality bullets left in September for the big league club?
Keith Law: He was supposed to be out 4-6 weeks, I think. I am assuming we’ll see him rehabbing very soon, based on that timetable. I would not anticipate him pitching in the majors this year.
Guest: Alex Bohm has been hitting really well but his defense has surprised me. I am not saying he’s even average but his turnaround from where he was at his lowest has been a surprise to even get to the point where he is at now. What do you make of his defense?
Keith Law: I think he’s at least a 50 (average) defender now. He started to show a lot of this last year, and so far this year he’s been that guy more consistently.
Braydon: Brody Brecht has been much better his last two starts. Can his final few starts of the year improve his draft stock significantly?
Keith Law: I don’t think “significantly,” but maybe slightly. He’s probably the fourth college starter taken after Burns, Smith, Yesavage. Word is the Angels would just take Yesavage and rush him to the big leagues. If that’s true those three arms all go in the top ten, and then we may not see another pitcher taken until the back half of the round.
JT: How does Kurtz compare to recent bat first 1B draftees such as Vaughn and Torkelson?
Keith Law: He reminds me a lot of Vaughn, but he’s a LHB, and I think he has better bat speed right now than Vaughn did. Still a worrisome profile. Was very glad to see Kurtz come back from the injury and get way more aggressive – when I saw him this year and even last year I worried he was taking to take, happy to walk, rather than looking to do damage in advantageous counts.
Keith Law: Torkelson was a different profile – nowhere near as disciplined as the other two, more raw power, decent argument he was power over hit. I ranked him highly, so I don’t want to make it sound like I didn’t like him or think he was a good pick, but I didn’t think he was a great athlete and thought he was a guy who’d have to hit from day one because he may not make adjustments that easily.
Keith Law: Vaughn, BTW, may be one of the biggest busts in the last 20 years. That guy dominated in the Pac-12 for three years – the Pac-12 used to be a major college conference, kids – and there was nothing about the swing to make you doubt he’d at least hit for average with high OBPs. The White Sox definitely rushed him, but at some point he needs to make an adjustment, too.
Jibraun: I know it’s only been a month, but is it too early to think Goldschmidt is in age-related decline? He looks like he has lost bat speed, and he is compensating by cheating fastball and guessing.
Keith Law: I think that’s exactly what’s happening. He does seem to have lost bat speed. Father Time is undefeated.
Jordan Walker: What is going on? Why can’tI hit in the majors? A piece in the Athletic thinks hitting too low in the lineup is partially to blame. That can’t be true?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that premise, and I think “can’t hit” is too strong. He hits the ball extremely hard, and he makes plenty of contact on pitches in the zone. I think there are some minor swing decision issues, and he hit the ball on the ground too often in the majors this year, but man, give the guy more than a month. It feels like they’re scrambling.
Aaron C.: It’s been 30 days. Small sample size caveats duly noted. Have you heard any indication that Jacob Wilson has been eating his Wheaties or hitting the weight room or otherwise gotten stronger? Am I trying to read too much into his hot start at Midland? WHO CAN SAY
Keith Law: Haha. I will say he’s doing all the damage at Midland, a crazy hitter’s park.
Jake: Surprised by the amazing start by Imonaga?
Keith Law: No. He’s a good pitcher doing really well in a small sample. I would be surprised if he did this all year, yes.
Jake: Any thoughts on Sasaki as a prospect or is it too soon?
Keith Law: No idea. He’s too far off the radar for me to worry about.
Louise: I re-read your piece on the Cubs signing Imanaga. Would you say you are feeling better about this concern?
“My main concern is that he cuts himself off in his landing and spins off his front heel, giving right-handed hitters too good of a look at the ball, which is how they tagged him for 13 of the 17 homers he allowed last season in NPB. Getting him even slightly more online plus using the splitter more to right-handers could be a remedy if that turns out to be an issue for him against MLB hitters.”
https://theathletic.com/5191790/2024/01/10/shota-imanaga-chicago-cubs-…
Keith Law: No, because we’re still looking at a tiny sample, and if you think he’s going to maintain a sub-5% HR/flyball rate or a 90% strand rate, well, good luck. He’s a solid major-league starter. When the weather warms up, will all those flyballs stay in the park?
Aaron C.: There’s a popular prompt that asks which pro athlete would you wish had a 100% healthy career. The best answer is usually Bo Jackson, of course. Since you’ve started scouting who is the guy(s) you most wish had been blessed with better health?
Keith Law: How about Byron Buxton?
Aaron C.: Whatcha got in the current weeknight dinner rotation? Looking to appease my beloved, but often ungrateful family.
Keith Law: Spring means more salads, for sure. My wife and I split cooking duties, so I cook about half of the nights, and I try to do at least one pasta dish a week. Sometimes it’s pasta alla vodka, sometimes pasta with fresh pesto (it’s warm enough now for the basil plants to survive outdoors), sometimes a pasta dish I made up with sun-dried tomatoes, white beans, and parmiggiano broth.
Keith Law: oh and pizza – once my travel dies down in 2-3 weeks I’ll get the Ooni rocking again.
mike: Do the BlueJays move on from Bo and Vladdy?? Right now their value is very low but Something sure isn’t working with both guys – and they have looked ordinary for quite some time.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t sell low, if that’s your question.
Ian: What are your thoughts on Marcelo Mayer’s start to the season? It looks like he is healthy and mashing. It felt like a bit of his shine wore off last year with the injuries.
Keith Law: I agree with your last two sentences. I think there was an overreaction to him not performing when he wasn’t 100% healthy. That said, in a limited sample, he’s doing all of his damage off fastballs, and he’s struggling against breaking stuff, especially sliders. Worth monitoring, although I am not backing off my top-10 overall ranking for him.
The Master Without Margarita: Roddery Munoz is obviously not this good, but can he be actually decent?
Keith Law: He walked a man an inning in AAA before they called him up. He walked 15% of guys last year across the Nats’ system. I do not believe he has suddenly found the strike zone on the bus from Jacksonville to Miami.
Tim: Tyler Freeman looks good under the hood – strong plate skills, good contact rates, consistently hitting the ball hard – but the results are dreadful to this point. Do you think the results eventually catch up to the process?
Keith Law: Until this year it’s been all groundballs – I mean, you can see a parallel to Walker, until you look at the two players’ bodies. If Freeman is actually lifting the ball more, he can probably end up an average regular somewhere. I have my doubts that this is really him.
Tim: Is Zac Veen back? Still a chance of an above-average regular here?
Keith Law: This is now his third partial year in AA. I wouldn’t get overly excited about a hot four weeks in a level where he played in 2023 and 2022.
Oscar W: Yoelqui “would be ranked lower as ‘bagodonuts” Céspedes is now playing independent baseball in Fargo ND. Surprised he’s out of affiliate baseball so quick? A lot of Cuban prospects are older but why such a high bust rate (Tomas, Rusney, Yoan L, etc). Even the successes are not as bright Yoenis/Moncada.
Keith Law: I give the White Sox a ton of credit for just moving on. He wasn’t happening, ever, so why waste the time and roster spot on him?
Sean: Have heard some buzz on low-A arms Santiago Suarez and Charlee Soto as early season breakouts. Do you see both as long-term starters? Either with mid or top of rotation potential?
Keith Law: Both have TOR potential, with low probability. Suarez > Soto, I think.
harry coffeeboat: keith – huge fan! what do you know about that palmquist guy from colorado? is it possible he finally becomes a legit rockies starter?
Keith Law: I think that’s a no-doubt reliever with his arm slot.
Mart: How was your trip to Pittsburgh to see WVU dominate the panthers
Keith Law: Great! Caught up with three of my old classmates from Tepper, and we got an absolutely perfect day for baseball. Plus I had a great lunch at Areppita’s downtown – I stayed right near there so I walked everywhere, including to/from PNC.
Guest: Thoughts on loperfido as a prospect?
Keith Law: Right here: https://theathletic.com/5263881/2024/02/14/astros-2024-top-prospects-k…
Guest: Do you consider cam fisher a legit prospect?
Keith Law: He’s 23 and striking out over a third of the time in the hitter’s paradise of Asheville. It’s power without hit.
Andy: How do you feel about Iowa’s strategy on high school baseball, with it not starting until May. It means you’re more likely to get more of the season in, but does it hurt when it comes to recruiting/scouting?
Keith Law: The real prospects end up playing for local travel teams or in the league Perfect Game runs out there, so they get seen anyway. I have mixed feelings; if the real purpose is to benefit the players, then starting later is clearly better, because you can’t bank on decent weather there until about now and you don’t want kids playing in cold and/or damp conditions.
Sedona: Have you watched Ranger Suarez’s starts this year? Do you think he’s turned the corner and perhaps the best 3 in the game or better?
Keith Law: He’s a 2 on just about any team.
CW Tampa Tarpons: Have you had a chance to watch Leo De Vries, and if so, what’s your first impression?
Keith Law: Got a look at him in spring training: https://theathletic.com/5352531/2024/03/19/scouting-mlb-breakout-games…
Sedona: We’re always looking for the next breakout Ace from the DSL in the Fantasy Dynasty Community. Who do you think has a chance to be the next Eury? Have you heard anything about Jeter Martinez?
Keith Law: I saw him in the spring … great arm, chance for a starter, didn’t love the delivery.
CW Tampa Tarpons: Any chance Justin Crawford makes it to the bigs this year, or is 2025 and beyond more realistic?
Keith Law: Zero chance. He’s in high A and is only 20.
Xander: You were the high man on Wilyer Abreu and that’s looking quite savvy at the moment – what kind of player does he settle in as? His continued BB% and K% improvement is really encouraging, is this a 4-5 WAR guy or more like 3 WAR?
Keith Law: I’d take the 4+ WAR.
PJ: Is Hayden Wesneski’s future as a 2-3 inning guy (like a Scot Shields type) or can he be a long-term starter.
Keith Law: I think he’s more of a bulk guy, but can make some spot starts.
andy: gimme a mlb floor and ceiling comp for charlie condon
Keith Law: I don’t really do player comps unless they are blindingly obvious to me. He’s got a chance to be a superstar – it’s 30 homer power with hard, hard contact and a strong eye. Probably ends up in RF.
Tripp: Possibly odd question about Caminero. Love the opposite field power, but he hits a lot of balls to right. Is him being routinely late a potential cause of concern? Could big time velocity be an issue for him?
Keith Law: Not that I’ve seen or heard.
Sedona: We see an uptick in young pitchers learning the splitter. Tanner Houck looks like an ace so far. Is this real?
Keith Law: I think so. I was always down on him as a starter because he had no weapon for LHB, and the lower arm slot gave those guys too much of a look at the ball. The splitter directly addresses that issue. I’ve been a splitter advocate forever, since I was with Toronto – I know of no actual evidence it increases injury risk, and if a guy can throw it, it’s a great alternative to a changeup (and straight changeups are losing popularity).
Justin Y: Will Warren looks like he can pitch, do you have the same concerns you had prior to this season?
Keith Law: I don’t know what you mean when you say he “looks like he can pitch.” Are you saying he has good control? He does. Command? Less so, but sure. My main concern on him going back to forever is that left-handed batters whack him around, and they’re doing so again (.500 SLG).
Bobby: Any of the international free agents looking better or worse to you than expected?
Keith Law: Most of them haven’t even played yet.
Josh: Any new thoughts on Andy Pages? He’s been solid in the bigs so far. Know you liked him in the past and was worried about the injury last year. Just wondering if there’s anything in his MLB performance that has you excited.
Keith Law: I overreacted to the shoulder injury. That’s my mistake. I’m buying, fully. Above-average regular.
Kevin W: Do you feel any different physically at 50 than 40?
Keith Law: Yes. Certainly slower to bounce back from exercise. I’ve got some compression in a disc in my lower back that’s probably age-related, but it’s become a chronic thing. And I need glasses more and more.
Brett: Which Dodgers OF are you higher on as of now, Josue De Paula or Zyhir Hope?
Keith Law: De Paula, same as in February.
Kevin W: How is the college application process going with your daughter?
Keith Law: She picked a school a few weeks ago, so it’s all done, and I think she’s more relieved than anything else. The New York Times has a great story from yesterday on what a shitshow it’s been this year.
Mike Trout: I’m seeing (bad faith) comparisons drawn between things like the college protests and the insurrection or Noem’s puppy killing and the treatment of the Biden dogs. How do we convince people that these things are not at all the same?
Keith Law: I am not sanguine about convincing people who are already convinced. I agree those are bad-faith comparisons, but people offering them aren’t coming from a place of critical thinking.
Adam D.: With Reggie Crawford at Double-A, am I crazy to think he could be a bullpen option for the Giants this summer?
Keith Law: They sure as hell seem to want him that way. At this rate he won’t be built up to start until 2029.
A Salty Scientist: In recent years lots of prospects have really struggled with the MLB transition. One hypothesis I’ve seen is that the reduction of minor league teams has bled out some of the veteran AAAA types that increase the challenge for top prospects. Not sure that I buy that, but curious if you have any thoughts.
Keith Law: I agree, and I’ve been saying so (based on feedback from scouts) since 2021. Mike Elias made very similar, pointed comments on it last week when they sent Holliday down. I also think that the rise of pitching labs & pitch design has made major-league pitching stronger than ever – and if you can make those adjustments, you don’t stay in the minors long, so the caliber of pitching down there hasn’t advanced as quickly.
Jimmy: Is ’Change Shapes’ more the in wheelhouse for Lauren Mayberry’s solo stuff?
Keith Law: I like it more than the first two singles.
A Salty Scientist: A formal mea culpa has to come from the Vatican, otherwise it’s just a sparkling apology. (not sorry)
Keith Law: I’ll allow it.
Rob: Christopher Morel is (unfortunately) floundering at 3B this season, both at the plate and in the field. If you were Jed, when would Matt Shaw start his decade long dominance at 3B for the Cubs?
Keith Law: I’m a Shaw believer but he has cooled off the last two weeks and I wouldn’t rush him to fill a need.
Keith Law: Meaning you don’t call a guy up from AA when he’s not hitting that well overall.
Frank: Why isnt Skenes in the majors? This seems like pure service time manipulation at this point.
Keith Law: It’s not service-time manipulation; that date already passed. That’s not a fair criticism. I think Skenes belongs in the majors, but I don’t think there’s a nefarious reason why he’s not.
John: Is Konnor Griffin to the Nats possible (I know it is early). Does he fit what Ciolek and Haas like? I hope they can get him to 10 similar to House in 2021. Thank you.
Keith Law: I’d be surprised. I don’t think that’s their type of player.
Tim: What’s up with Corbin? Sophomore slump or something more?
Keith Law: Last I looked he wasn’t making anywhere near as much hard contact as last year. Could be a fluke, could be he’s fighting some small injury we don’t know about.
Steve: I name you President of a small market team tomorrow (in a city with great food, just so we can keep you). What are the 3 things you are going to push the owner to spend on that will give him the most return on his spendings?
Keith Law: People. A full scouting staff, amateur and pro. Plenty of coaches and instructors in player development. The same for R&D, even though those employees are the most expensive. I do not believe you can McKinsey your way to a championship.
Steve: Question on Nolan McLean. As much as it’s 70 power, it looks like it’s a 30 hit tool. Do you think letting him continue to hit hurts his potential development on the mound, or do you keep letting him go until he fails enough to come to that conclusion on his own?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s hurting him to hit a little because I think he’s going to end up in the bullpen anyway.
Steve: Hi Keith – process question for you. Given SSS, how do you go about updating your thoughts on prospects who start off hot or cold? If you see crazy stats (either way) for someone, do you call the team and ask, try to get in and see them, or just ignore until June/July?
Keith Law: There’s a reason I haven’t done that yet. I’ll probably update the pro list later in May or early in June, depending on travel. But right now it would be overreaction theatre, or it would just be me repeating stuff I said in February.
Tracy: I just finished reading Jonathan Strange and Mr Norrell. While it was certainly imaginative and well thought out, I found it long and plodding; it did not grab my attention and I had a hard time finishing it. Just my opinion. Anyway, I’ve always wanted to ask: is there an author whose prose style you enjoy so much that it doesn’t matter what the story is?
Keith Law: Ann Patchett.
CK: Do you find writing to be therapeutic, or not really because it is your job?
Keith Law: I love writing. Doesn’t matter what it’s about. And the more I write the better I tend to feel.
Chris P: I see JJ Wetherholt is back to hitting very well, but has he still been off the diamond or are they getting him reps at short?
Keith Law: I saw him stand at short on Tuesday at PNC Park. He should only be DHing. He hit pretty well for a guy with one leg, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and your readership. I’ll do another one at least when I update my draft rankings in a couple of weeks. Stay safe.