Keith Law: To the chair in the room where I live and breathe. Klawchat.
Joe: Did you post an article about your scouting trip in Minnesota? Maryland fan here hoping the first hand reports were not as bad as the box score.
Keith Law: No, I’ll file something after this weekend – I wanted to wrap both trips up into one post since this one probably wouldn’t be enough for its own.
Guest: Have you heard anything about how Thomas Saggese looks at Rangers minor league camp? Is he opening at AA Frisco this year?
Keith Law: Minor league games haven’t begun yet. I assume he’ll go to Frisco since he finished there after spending nearly all of the year in high A – he’s not going back down and I see no reason they’d jump him to AAA.
JT: Tennessee just allowed denying interracial couples marriage licenses.
How the hell does the GOP have a single voter? #%#*%$#*
Keith Law: Because there are a lot of people in this country who agree with their policies. Although I admit that Tennessee, with more than half of its population living in/near cities, should be far less reactionary than its legislature is.
JT: The Blue Jays have a certain MiLB hitter killing it in ST: is the best reaction from Jays fans that it’s cool his heights include this and then stay the course?
Keith Law: Spring training stats do not matter. They just don’t, and we do this every year, and they still don’t matter. Jays fans should just remember the year Gabe Gross led ST with 8 homers.
Scott: You have been evaluating prospects for quite awhile. Are you able to get the sense from young players who might become a future MLB coach or manager? If so, can you provide some examples?
I’m curious if those skills are able to be seen at such a young age.
Keith Law: No, that’s not what I’m looking for when I go to the ballpark to see a player.
Chris H: Thoughts on Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: You can see my report on him in my Mets top 20 and org report.
Snapper Bean: Any insight on why its taking the Phillies so long to announce what exactly is going on with Andrew Painter?
Keith Law: I mean, they don’t exactly owe us an answer immediately, right? Some of the hand-wringing I’ve seen online is a bit much. They might be getting a second opinion, or discussing options with the player. My only complaint is that they promised an update and didn’t deliver – just don’t promise the update.
Benito: Keith! Are you watching any of the WBC? Excited to see a fellow paisan like, uh, Matt Harvey, pitching for Italy?
Keith Law: I’m not – I like the WBC as a way to market the sport but the majority of the players involved aren’t prospects for me to cover, so I never watch much of it.
Edward: I heard chatter from the hosts on MLB Network Radio this morning saying the pitch timer should be eliminated after the eighth inning.
As someone who (I think) supports the timer, do you think turning it off in late innings makes any sense?
Keith Law: I do support the timer and I do not support turning it off in late innings. Players will adjust to it soon enough and then this won’t be an issue any more.
Ryan: Hi Keith. I know you’ve said spring stats hold little value but is/has there ever been a situation where your thoughts on a prospect’s MLB readiness what changed by how they performed in the spring?
Keith Law: Nope. Performance in ST does not matter. It has no predictive value.
Sean: Suffering Tiger fan here. Reports out of spring are that – despite not getting many hits, Torkelson is hitting the ball hard. Have you heard anything about that? We still believe in Tork? Thanks.
Keith Law: I still think Torkelson will be a solid big leaguer. Didn’t he hit the ball reasonably hard last year in the regular season?
Keith Law: He did, actually. So I don’t know what we would take from him doing the same thing against worse competition in games that don’t count. (I understand they probably count for him, as he’s trying to prove he deserves a spot on the roster.)
Iohn T.: How worried should the Yankees be about Rodon?
Keith Law: I don’t love hearing about pitchers with forearm strains, regardless of health history. But he’s also had so much arm trouble, including a TJ, that it seems like worse news than for a pitcher with a clean track record?
matt: Griff mcGarry seems to falling off the prospect radars a bit, what kind of factors are influencing that?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that at all.
Brett: What do you think about Encarncion-Strand? Seems like he may actually have a shot at the OD roster with Votto still on the mend?
Keith Law: Power over hit with a lot of chase. I don’t think he’s ready to hit MLB pitching. He was #17 on my Reds top 20: https://klaw.me/3xdfXZz
Radar: How has working at The Athletic changed — if at all — since it was acquired by The New York Times?
Keith Law: For me, it hasn’t. I can’t speak for anyone else.
Brent: Any planned visits to central Indiana for Max Clark?
Keith Law: Yes but probably later this spring when he’s got some games under his belt. I’m hoping to see the big 3 HS bats – him, Jenkins, Nimmala – as well as McGonigle and Eldridge since they’re near me. Otherwise I’m focusing more on college guys since it’s a college-heavy draft.
Ryan: The Cardinals seem set on starting Lars Nootbaar every day this year. What was your projection of him as a prospect and do you think this was the right direction to take during the offseason?
Keith Law: I don’t think I ever wrote him up – he was a big swing change guy and he’s very different now from who he was in college or even pre-pandemic in the minors, when he had no power and you couldn’t project him as even an up-and-down guy.
Guest: Is a catcher’s game calling ability something to consider in evaluation, or not at all?
Keith Law: I think it is.
Keith Law: But I do rely on others to tell me when a catcher is good/not at that. There’s no way I could infer that from watching even several games, not without knowing who’s really calling pitches and game-planning behind the scenes.
Chase: I’m going to my 1st Spring training game in Scottsdale at the Diamondbacks park in a couple weeks. Any recommendations on the stadium, food, or another team/park I should try to visit?
Keith Law: Beautiful park. Probably my second favorite in AZ after the Giants’ place, but Salt River is also much bigger and easier to get into/out of. It’s close to Soi4, a Thai place at Via de Ventura/Scottsdale Rd that I’ve liked for a decade; and Andreoli Grocer, an Italian market and sandwich place. But you’re also a stone’s throw from Old Town Scottsdale which has easily a dozen or more strong food and drink options (plus a Cartel Coffee).
Holly: Early reports are that big Jackson Rutledge is impressing in Nats camp. Is he a guy who could be a fast mover now?
Keith Law: If he’s healthy and he throws strikes and we see more of a third pitch, sure.
John: Can Andre Lipcious push for playing time with the tigers this year?
Keith Law: Sure, although there’s no ceiling there for me. Unless his swing has changed, he’s a low-power bat who doesn’t play anywhere he could be a regular. Fine to give him a shot and see what you have, though.
Matt: Will the Yankees listen to Judge about Volpe staying on the parent club, or are they gonna stick him in the minors for control?
Keith Law: I’m not a fan of letting players pick who else makes the roster. I do like Volpe a ton but I do not see how a month or two in AAA hurts him, while it could also let them give Peraza an extended look at SS.
Mike: Who do you see making the biggest impact between Jackson Rutledge, Jake Irvin, and cole henry over the next few seasons?
Keith Law: Irvin has the lowest ceiling of the three. All of them have substantial injury histories or questions. I think I’d take Henry but man I don’t feel good about any of them making a big impact because of health.
Chris: Just got back from a week and a half in Ariz for my first ever ST there. Saw 6 ballparks in 9 days. Couldnt get into Pizzeria Bianco (line was way out the door at 11am open!) but did go to MBB and CRUjiente on my last day in Scottsdale, thanks for the recs!
Keith Law: You’re welcome! I’m looking forward to a trip out there at the end of the month, for scouting and for food.
Ryan: With Willson Contreras signed long term, Should the Cardinals look to trade Ivan Herrera, similar to how they traded Carson Kelly, or should they hold on to Herrera as insurance/backup?
Keith Law: I would look to trade him – he’s good enough to start for someone.
Mike: Think Caleb Kilian can turn it around and be a post-hype sleeper?
Keith Law: Can, yes. Will? I don’t feel great about it. He was a real mess in the second half last year.
Laci: Luis Garcia – top 50 SP this season?
Keith Law: I feel like the way they use him makes that unlikely – he is a good enough pitcher to be a top 50 SP but probably won’t pitch enough innings to get there by total value, if that makes sense. Maybe a top 50 SP on a per-inning bases, but not on a WAR basis.
Mike: Do you ever listen to podcasts like Rates and Barrels, effectively wild, or any other baseball podcasts?
Keith Law: I don’t, but it has nothing to do with the podcasts themselves – when I’m in the car, which is my only listening time, I either listen to new music or to non-baseball podcasts. The job eats up enough of my time that I’m rigid about carving out space for non-baseball time.
Ken from Entertainment 720: If the Yankees have a prospect that they grade at 45 but the Twins grade him at 55 and the Twins have a prospect they grade at 45 but the Yanks think is a 55, why arent trades like this done? It would theoretically improve each farm system
Keith Law: That happens sometimes, but I do think there’s the fear that you’re wrong about the 45 and he goes somewhere else and becomes a 60 while the guy you thought was a 55 comes over and becomes a 45 and suddenly you’re a 0.
Mike: Cj abrams got 6 lbs heavier… i know you mentioned he needs to bulk up, but i’m guessing thats not nearly enough?
Keith Law: He needs to get stronger, which sometimes means bulking up but can just be more strength in his hands/forearms. He joked about how hard it is for him to gain muscle, so the 6 lbs is a big deal for him whereas for, say, Aaron Judge, it’s a rounding error. The proof will be in the exit velos.
John: Do you watch Ted Lasso?
Keith Law: Yes, we watched S1 and S2. I like it, but I’m glad it’s ending after S3. I felt the premise started to wear thin by the end of the second season. I think this is the ceiling for a feel-good TV show.
Romorr: How did you feel about the Frazier signing for the Orioles, vs. say, a Vavra/Urias platoon? Add on some other 2B prospects being close, still not a fan.
Keith Law: Didn’t like it for the reasons you mentioned (esp prospects coming) and also because any money they spend should be on pitching at this point. Their lineup is not the issue.
Leith Kaw: Do you think J Walker should start the season in St Louis? Cardinals writers seem split on if the team will keep him down for more OF experience or start him in MLB to hopefully gain a draft pick if he finishes top 3
Keith Law: They have other OF options to sift through. I won’t criticize it if he makes the team – he has handled every promotion so far, no matter how aggressive – but I see a baseball reason to try other players first.
Karl: Should Bryce Miller start the season in AA? Does he have the opportunity to make it to Major Leagues this year or is 2024 the more likely scenario?
Keith Law: I think he makes the team this year at some point.
Mike: does isaac paredes have a good offensive profile to you?
Keith Law: So he is almost the complete opposite of the player I thought he’d be. I thought he’d make a lot of hard contact and hit for average with doubles power, but struggle to play any position at an even average level. Instead, he was a plus defender last year and made a ton of weak contact. So I think the answer to your question is no, but also I have no idea what to make of him at this point.
Mike: Do we have permission to believe in a Kelenic breakout?
Keith Law: Granted.
Edward: Do you ever miss being on TV regularly?
I’m sure the reflexive answer is “no,” but there are few better ways to build your brand.
Keith Law: It’s no and yes. There are things I miss, and things I don’t. But I also recognize people don’t watch those shows anywhere near as often as they used to. MLB Network has been kind enough to have me on a few times a year, and I always say yes if I can. I’d rather have the evenings either to go see players or spend time at home.
Bob Pollard: Should the Mets just give Baty the 3B job and see what happens? Do you think they will, or will they start him in AAA?
Keith Law: I would give him the job.
Lois: What are the biggest things that have changed about the way you evaluate players versus 5, 10, and/or 20 years ago?
Keith Law: Far more data today, of course, and widely available video.
Maddie: How legit is Addison Barger? Someone to watch if Merrifield or Biggio struggles?
Keith Law: When hasn’t Biggio struggled? Barger is already the better version of that player.
Mike: How do you feel about mackenize gore heading into 2023
Keith Law: If he’s healthy I’m still a big fan.
Erik: Any chance of a JJ Bleday breakout after moving to a new organization?
Keith Law: Needs a big swing change.
James: As a “new to football” fan was the Super Bowl a crushing loss for you, or just more of an “oh well”?
Keith Law: It was a crushing way to lose, but what a tremendous season for the Eagles. I can’t be too disappointed.
Carlock: Can Strider repeat with only two pitches?
Keith Law: Yes.
G: The Ricketts family’s republican donations / values have killed my Cubs fandom. Putting us cubs fans on the left in a really weird spot. Are most MLB owners this right leaning and just the Ricketts publicly are?
Keith Law: Yes. The Kendricks might be even more so. Randi Kendrick has donated millions to right-wing causes, including attacks on public education.
Jake: I know you aren’t a huge Mervis fan, but he has to be a better choice than Hosmer, right?
Keith Law: I would go Mancini > Mervis > Bryan LaHair> Gary Scott > Kevin Orie > Hosmer.
Chris: for Chase, I just got back from a week and a half in Ariz, i thought Cubs and Dodgers/Rangers stadiums were also nice (in addn to Dbacks), Angels in Tempe is kind of a dump and right on a busy highway
Keith Law: I can’t stand the Dodgers stadium. You’re right in the sun the whole game if you’re behind the plate. I wish they could put the thing on a turntable and spin it around.
JD: Seems like kids of MLBers have higher rates of making the Show and of being stars, compared to non-legacies. Is that just confirmation bias, or a real phenomenon?
Keith Law: The bias is in opportunities – if you’re the son of a big leaguer, you’re probably (not certainly) growing up in a higher-income household, and you will always get more attention from coaches, scouts, etc.
Paul: Is there a reason Langford isn’t universally considered a better hitting prospect than Crews outside of the famous name? They seem to have similar contact and walk rates and Langford clearly has more power. Am I missing something?
Keith Law: Langford’s also a better runner, but Crews plays CF now while Langford plays a corner. Crews is definitely more famous and has been a GUY since he was a HS junior. There’s a comfort level with the longer track record. I have had several scouts come back to me to say they’d take Langford over Crews, though.
Candler: Speaking of Luis Garcia, any indications that the Nats’ Garcia will take a leap forward this year? Still only 22 years old.
Keith Law: I don’t know of any reason to think so.
Juwan: Is Skenes a viable candidate to go top 3? Do you like his secondary offerings enough for that type of ascension assuming he stays healthy and continues performing well?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s on track to pass Dollander at this point.
James: If you were Rizzo, would you shy away from taking a Wyatt Langford second overall because of the prospect pool already accrued or would you leap at the opportunity to add another high end prospect in that area to give yourself a better chance of assembling your outfield of the future? Question’s really a resource allocation consideration.
Keith Law: Best player available.
Mike E: Thanks for sharing your anxieties on the airport in the newsletter. I also don’t have any fear in the actual flying part but the process of going through the airport can give me anxiety days in advance.
Keith Law: Thank you for reading. You can sign up for my free email newsletter here.
Brian: Is there a breakouts article forthcoming?
Keith Law: I have written one every year for as long as I can remember.
Matthew: Any hope for Forrest Whitley making the majors at this point? Even as a reliever?
Keith Law: Yes.
Guest: FYI on the Tennessee marriage bill: it only allows people to refuse to “solemnize” a marriage; in other words, perform it. It does not allow county clerks to refuse to issue licenses, which is purely ministerial
Keith Law: There’s some disagreement over this.
Pat: Correction- The Tennessee HOUSE passed a bill that allows county clerks to ban interracial (& same-sex & interfaith) marriage. It still needs to pass the Senate & the Governor has to sign it.
Keith Law: Thank you. The Tennessee Senate is 81% Republicans, and the Governor is a Republican, so I think the odds are in the bill’s favor.
JD: Any guesses what will come out of the totally-not-about-Steve-Cohen baseball economics committee?
Keith Law: A bunch of complaining about players making too much money.
Jake: The Cubs are considering Madrigal at third. Can any team win with a lineup that doesn’t have one player projected to hit more than 25 HR’s and most under 15?
Keith Law: I suppose it’s possible, but you’d better prevent a lot of runs.
Danny: I’m going to Scottsdale for the first time next month- is Pizza Bianco easier to get into for lunch? Any other pizza reccos for Scottsdale/Phoenix?
Keith Law: Try the second location near the Biltmore. The crowds have been crazy at both spots, but especially the tiny original location, since the Netflix show about it aired.
Matt: Are velocities expected to come down with the pitch clock? Seems like it’s gonna be hard to tbeo
Keith Law: I think BA had a piece that the velocities didn’t come down in the minors last year with the pitch clock?
Kevin: Does Brandon Walter have a chance to be a mid rotation starter or is he destined to be a bullpen arm?
Keith Law: I think he’s most likely a reliever. Just watch some video of him to get some idea.
JR: As a Mets fan, which trade is going to end up “hurting” the most, Kelenic or PCA?
Keith Law: I feel like PCA at this point, although I refuse to give up on Kelenic.
Ben: What roasters are you buying from these days? You recommended Archetype a few years ago, and it’s become one of my favorites. Thanks!
Keith Law: I buy when I travel, mostly, Hoping to hit Foxtail when I go see the Rays’ kids next week and Cartel of course when in Phoenix. But I try to mix in some new places when I go to other cities.
Matt: Any idea what Sarah Huckabee is doing allowing 9 year olds to work? It sounds insane, even for the GOP.
Keith Law: Cheaper for employers than raising the minimum wage!
James: Is there an offseason for college pitchers? From the regular season to Summer league to Fall ball…. it seems like college pitchers have no break from throwing. I wonder if that has anything to do with these college injuries?
Keith Law: More college pitchers take the summer off every year to rest.
Keith Law: It’s hurt a lot of summer leagues’ caliber of competition but it’s better for the pitchers’ arm health.
Ike: Any reason to hold out hope on Nick Pratto? What do you see his role being in a year?
Keith Law: Yes, I still think he’s a potential starter, although he may need to do it somewhere else.
Matt: How concerned are you about Chase Dollander’s inability to find his slider this year? It looked like a legit plus plus pitch last year and now it’s just disappeared. Would an MLB team feel confident that they could help him get it back after they drafted him?
Keith Law: I get more concerned each week. Is it health? Hard to think of a comparable example of a guy going from a 70ish breaking pitch to a wildly inconsistent pitch that’s mostly a 45 without an injury.
Henry: If you’re Andrew Friedman do you stick with Miguel Vargas at SS, and hope to get someone before trade deadline? I feel awful for Gavin Lux.
Keith Law: Vargas at SS seems like a huuuuge stretch.
Jake: What do you expect to be the fastest pitcher eventually? When we were young, 100 mph seemed like a unicorn and now there are hundreds of people who can do that with of course varying results. Reminds me of the 4:00 mile but even that eventually plateaued.
Keith Law: I think the 104-105 range is the ceiling. I feel like there was some research on this maybe ten years ago that argued that 105ish was the absolute maximum given human anatomy. Maybe I’m remembering wrong?
JP: what do you expect from Brayan Bello this year?
Keith Law: League-average or better starter.
Isaac: Have you seen Jacob Misoroski live? The reports sound promising. Do you feel he can add a 3rd pitch and be a #2/3 type?
Keith Law: No, he’s only pitched in juco and then instructs last fall, before I got to AZ. Adding a third pitch is certainly possible but not a small thing.
JR: March Madness fan at all? Do you fill out a bracket (even if it’s just for a friendly competition with family/friends?)
Keith Law: No, basketball has always been my least favorite sport, and since I went to a college that rarely makes the tournament (and where athletics in general weren’t a huge part of campus life) I never got into it that way either.
GlennMo: I haven’t heard really any hype on Mikey Romero, which is odd in that market. Is he someone to be excited about possibly added some strength?
Keith Law: I like Romero as a potential solid regular at 2b or above-average one at SS.
SadinLa: Any hope for Jo Adell? Still looks enticing, but maybe I’m just fooling myself
Keith Law: I don’t know how you undo the damage done by the over-aggressive promotions. He didn’t belong in AAA and then he didn’t belong in the majors, offensively or defensively. He’s never recovered. When I talk about sending a player like Walker or Volpe or (pre-injury) Painter to AAA for a month rather than rushing him to the majors, this is what I’m talking about. You don’t want to derail a kid over what amounts to a few extra weeks of games in the big leagues. There’s very little downside to being conservative with a player who has little to no AAA experience or success.
Josh: Is Manzardo a guy you could see making a singnificant impact in the majors? Your write up was glowing, but seems like he may have been dinged for being relegated to 1st.
Keith Law: I think he’s the only true 1B on my top 100, no? That should tell you that I believe in his bat – I do ding those no-position guys quite a bit.
SadinLa: Does Will Benson get a fresh start in cincy? Watched him many times in A ball , he looked like a man among boys. Physical phenom back then
Keith Law: Gets a fresh start in a ballpark that rewards guys with power, even if the hit tool is lacking, but I think he’s got a long way to go with the bat still.
Trevor: This season may be the most I’ve looked forward to going to games and it’s all bc of the pitch clock
Keith Law: It removes so much dead time from the game that the experience of watching is just much better.
Isaac: Would you keep Harry Ford at catcher? Can he be a top 20 type prospect by years end?
Keith Law: I’d try to keep him at catcher until he either shows he can’t handle it or the bat turns out to be way more advanced than the glove (like Bryce Harper or Wil Myers) so moving him is the right developmental move.
foolsgold1971: Gavin Stons’s changeup is even better than advertised. Am I overreacting?
Keith Law: It’s pretty good. Freaking Dodgers, man.
David: Have you read any books by JG Farrell? I just finished Troubles and thoroughly enjoyed it.
Keith Law: No but I’ve sort of been working through the list of Booker Prize winners so I’ll likely read that and/or The Siege of Krishnapur.
Isaac: Evan Carter, crow-armstrong or Robert Hassel? Seem like similar players. A year ago it seemed like Hassell then a huge gap to the other 2, but I’m guessing that’s closed or reversed. Thanks as always!!!
Keith Law: Carter probably has the highest ceiling, PCA is the best prospect of the three because he has a high floor but also some ceiling.
AWC: Just when MLB inserts changes to make their games more watchable… They can’t reach an agreement with YouTube TV to carry MLB Network so their games are literally unwatchable. Make it make sense!
Keith Law: I feel like that might get worked out in time.
Not a cow: M.Bleis and de Paula have been getting a ton of helium. Are they elite talent type prospects?
Keith Law: Bleis was on my top 100 for that reason.
Ken: The guardians lack thump in their outfield. As much as we love watching Kwan and straw and etc, is valera an instant upgrade as soon as he’s ready? He seems to suffer from prospect fatigue, does he still have that impact upside?
Keith Law: Still has impact upside but definitely needs to improve some of his contact rates before he’s ready.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’ll be traveling a lot this month so I don’t know when the next chat will be, but I will post a few scouting blogs as I see players, both amateur and pro, including one on Monday or Tuesday about some draft guys. Thanks as always for reading and for all of your questions!