Starting today at 2 pm ET. Subscribers to the Athletic can read my latest minor-league scouting post, on Kyle Harrison, Jay Groome, and others; and my second mock for the upcoming MLB draft.
Keith Law: It’s the sound of a brand new day. Klawchat.
Aaron C.: Off the top of your head, is this year’s midseason top 50 going to feature the most new names due to graduations in the history of Klaw? Celebrators of chaos unite! *cackles*
Keith Law: Yes, certainly seems that way. I’ll do this a few days after the draft, as I did last year, so I can include some of those players as well. Looking back at my preseason top 100 I think 8 of the top 9 will be off the midseason list (where I just go by whether they’re in the majors, not rookie status as I do in the offseason). So the top of the midseason list will be especially fun and different.
Jason S: Who’s the more promising breakout player Ceddanne Rafaela or Ezequiel Tovar?
Keith Law: Tovar. Better chance for + defensive value. Rafaela is a lot smaller, too.
Erica: Couldn’t someone just put Ben Joyce in their big league bullpen right now?
Keith Law: They could, but I don’t think he’d do very well. He walked 10% of hitters in college this year. That’s going to be much higher even in AA, let alone the majors.
Mike W: Gavin Stone not slowing down in AA, has he passed up Bobby Miller?
Keith Law: Stone’s a good prospect but he’s not close to Miller. That’s stat-line scouting. Miller was in my preseason top 50 because he has a very good chance to be not just a starter, but a good one.
Bret S: I appreciate all of the book reviews you do. Maybe a dumb question but how do you finish books you don’t like? I have so many I want to read I bail out the minute I realize I don’t like the one I’m reading.
Keith Law: Sometimes I don’t, especially if the book is long. I’m not pushing myself to finish books I read for pleasure. I do read a few books a year for completist purposes, like the Pulitzer and Hugo winners, but otherwise I don’t see the reason to force myself to read something I don’t love. I gave up on How late it was, how late, even though I’m sort of working my way through the Booker winners, because it was so hard to read and unpleasant too. (A book can be hard to read, but enjoyable, like some Faulkner.)
Thomas T: Hi Keith;
Thoughts on either Wingspan expansions? I’ve followed many of your recommendations over the years (and have been glad I did). I love Wingspan for its short gameplay, so I’m wondering if the added time isn’t really going to bring enough value to take it from a <90 min game to closer to 2 hours.
Keith Law: I’ve actually never played the expansions – they just announced a third one this week, Asia – mostly because I don’t play many expansions to any games. I own so many games, and play so many new games each year for reviews, that I play very few games enough to want to alter the experience with an expansion. It has to really add something good to game play, like Carcassonne’s Traders & Builders does, or add better components, like Ticket to Ride’s 1910 expansion. But a lot of expansions just add complexity or extend game time, and that appeals to me less. I do have one expansion I want to play & review, for Paris: La Cité de la Lumière, but haven’t gotten to it yet.
Mike: Last week, You and dvr discussed the rebuilding teams but left out one clear one – the Nats. Is it just because they are so early on it it/whats your take on their current state?
Keith Law: I don’t think we tried to cover every single rebuilding team – that would have taken more than the time we have for the show. They are early in their rebuild, but I also think when they get closer the (current) owners are likely to spend big in free agency to supplement, which isn’t true for all rebuilding clubs.
David: Hi Keith, Does the pitching Elijah Green faced at IMG compare at all to what Cam Collier saw in junior college? You had previously mentioned Green faced perhaps the toughest high school pitching in the country this year (please correct me if I’m wrong). Thanks!
Keith Law: I think that the second part about Green is fair, but no high school pitching is going to be close to what Collier saw facing Florida jucos.
Mike: Welcome back! Any reason the Yankees don’t drop Joey Gallo now, even if they have to eat his salary? And, do you know why he has been so historically, abysmally bad with the Yankees?
Keith Law: Seems very overreactive. Also, there’s no question another team would take him, even if it’s just to take the rest of the contract.
Casey: Masyn Winn seemed like a high risk/reward draft pick in 2020 that has done well this season…do you think he could be an above average regular at SS?
Keith Law: Yes. Huge credit to the Cards for that draft – Walker and Winn were both very high risk/high reward guys, for different reasons, and so far both have performed at or near the top end of expectations. It’s like betting eight the hard way, twice, and hitting it both times. (Not really because that is a stupid bet in craps, but I hope you get the general idea.)
PghJake: Will Ben Cherrington have the draft pool to pull off this year what he did last year?
Keith Law: They only have one extra pick this year, and they pick 4th rather than 1st. That’s a lot less money in their pool.
Casey: As a Cardinals fan I keep reading about the success of Gordon Graceffo this season. What’s the word on him within the industry?
Keith Law: I had a note on him in late March in a scouting post and what I wrote then still stands. He’s a legitimate mid-rotation starter prospect.
Erik: Can Christopher Morel be a legitimate starting outfielder? Or do you get Junior Lake vibes?
Keith Law: There’s a whole lot in between those two outcomes. I think he’s in the middle of that. Probably not a regular.
Casey: How has Tommy Edman turned into this? I remember you saying you thought wouldn’t be much more than a backup infielder but now he leads the league in WAR…what changed with him?
Keith Law: Multiple things have changed – he’s a pretty different player now, and while I would bet the under on him repeating this in the second half, he’s become such a valuable defensive player that his floor is way higher. I don’t think he was ever this good a defender in the minors. He also makes more hard contact than I expected, or than he did as a prospect. Right now he’d probably be the first guy on my “guys I was wrong about” list.
Alex: When do you see Jud Fabian getting selected in the draft? In other words, did he make the right choice by not signing with the Red Sox last year?
Keith Law: I don’t think he goes any higher and probably ends up with less money than what he turned down. He’s the same guy he was a year ago, except now he’s almost 22. There’s just way too much swing and miss here, with no improvement over two seasons in his main areas of weakness. You can read more about him on my Big Board.
Ryan: Do you think the Dbacks will promote Carroll this year? The lineup could really use a boost
Keith Law: That’s the wrong reason to promote your best prospect, though. You promote him because he’s ready, and needs the bigger challenge.
Billy: The teams who passed on Lawlar because he was “old” for the class are probably kicking themselves right now.
Keith Law: Did anyone really do that? I’m sure it was a small factor in some models, but I don’t think any team flat-out passed on him for that reason. He was old for the class, though – no scare quotes needed. 19 is old for a HS senior.
Aaron C.: Restaurant you’re most looking forward to hitting up during All Star weekend in LA?
Keith Law: I’m afraid I won’t have much time for food tourism on that trip. Might be more breakfast & lunch and then I improvise for dinners with the Futures Game on Saturday evening (followed by a lot of writing) and then the draft on Sunday night (followed by more writing and sleep).
Aaron C.: May I selfishly request any modicum of positive prospect-related news you might have from the A’s farm system for those of us who are still inexplicably A’s fans?
Keith Law: Yes. Zack Gelof is both justifying my choice to rank him in the “just missed” column and making me wish I’d gone even further. (He’s out now with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, though.)
Jesse B: How concerned are you about Noelvi Marte’s season?
Keith Law: I’m not.
Finney: Mark Appel finally made it to the majors, and I couldn’t be happier for him. What is the main reason he never became the top-of-the-rotation arm that he once seemed destined to be? Was the quality of his stuff eroded by injuries and/or misuse? Did he simply fail to develop past what he was in college? Or did everyone overestimate how good he was in the first place?
Keith Law: Everyone has an explanation on that one, and I think it was a combination of many things. One is that his fastball played well below its velocity in pro ball. I would bet that in the trackman era, he doesn’t go 1-1, because advanced data is not as kind to his stuff as the radar gun was.
Keith Law: I do also think pitching in Lancaster, which was a ridiculous hitters’ park that I often compared to playing baseball on the moon, really hurt him as a pitcher, because of the way it amplified any mistakes and imposed a greater cost on his stuff than any other park might have. I’m so glad that park is gone.
Charlotte: If you had to take one going forward out of Adley, Witt and JRodriguez…who ya got? Still small enough sample that you would default to preseason rankings?
Keith Law: I might go J-Rod given youth and now that he’s demonstrated 80 speed across the board. DVR and I discussed on him on last week’s podcast and why I should/would have ranked him higher if I’d seen that before.
Anthony: Is the hype on Jackson Chourio justified?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s really good.
David: Keith, if you had to rank in likelihood for Cubs at 7, between Lee, Parada, Termarr, and Collier…. What order do you have?
Keith Law: I’ll have another mock in less than two weeks.
Phil: Thoughts on Bo Naylor’s season and is this the type of offense you thought you’d see from him when he first came out?
Keith Law: Yes but bear in mind that he was repeating AA. Still optimistic. Also I’d like to point out that my habit of calling breakouts a year early may now extend to Josh Naylor, who is doing this year what I said he’d do last year.
JR: Is all this college realignment good, bad or neutral for college baseball? I wish college football and mens basketball (the $ makers) would form their own league and leave the rest of the non-money making sports in their geographical footprints
Keith Law: I think it’s bad for college baseball because of the huge travel that might be imposed on players if we lose all of the geographical ties on the conferences. One point college coaches like to make to recruits is that going pro means lots of times sitting on buses for road trips. I’d rather do that than fly cross-country and try to play while jet-lagged, and also not getting paid.
Jack: Any chance Colson Montgomery has played his way into the top 100?
Keith Law: I just saw him two nights ago, blog post to come later this week, but the short answer is no.
Mike: Chances that the “franchises heretofore known as the Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays” actually relocate? And, where?
Keith Law: In what timeframe?
Rick: Has your long-term outlook of Detmers changed after his initial MLB time? On a side note, thanks for all your non baseball posts and links.
Keith Law: I’m a little less optimistic but maybe like 10% so.
Craig: You recently teased a possible visit to London (and/or elsewhere in the UK). Are you able to expand on that possibility?
Keith Law: The store event I was working on fell through, so while I’ll be there in August, I don’t currently have a place for some sort of meet-up. I’m still open to it and will see what else I can do, though. More than enough of you said you’d be game for it.
Kahlil (Jupiter, FL): What happens to my hit tool? Why am I striking out so much? Can I develop a two strike approach?
Keith Law: One of the bigger and more shocking disappointments of the season.
Freddie Freeman: How tired are you of hearing about how my agent screwed me and how much I miss Atlanta?
Keith Law: I really do not have any desire to get involved in that storyline at all.
Eric: Do you garden? If so, how much? What do you grow? Is it therapeutic for you?
Keith Law: I do! We grew radishes this year, which were done by early June; and arugula and English peas, which are finishing up now. We have tomatoes, cucumbers, beets, bell peppers, and possibly one watermelon plant all still going, plus some herbs in the garden and in pots. This was our first year doing it in the new yard, so some of this was an experiment to see what would work in that space, but everything has grown beyond our hopes. I don’t know if I’d say it’s therapeutic but I love the reward of eating what we grow. I’m less interested in things we can’t eat.
Keith Law: I always want to have thyme and rosemary plants going. I use those herbs enough and fresh is so much better than dried that they’re essential IMO. And we have several basil plants which I need to be more diligent about harvesting and pruning (you want to remove the buds before flowers appear, as that will make the leaves more bitter).
JK: Did you watch House of Gucci just to make fun of Leto? Worth it, but it wasn’t even the best Scott-Driver movie last year.
Keith Law: No, we actually wanted to watch it. I was surprised by how boring it was. I knew the accents would be an issue, and I am not a Leto fan at all, but the movie just sucked. All that money and time and effort for such a big nothing? How do you turn a story with multiple scandals into such a dull script?
Jay: How much has Gunnar Henderson improved his stock this year? His season, at his age, has been incredible.
Keith Law: I’ll put it this way … he’ll figure quite prominently in the midseason rankings update.
Justin: Does trading Bryan Reynolds make sense for the Pirates right now? Do you think they’re at all close to winning if they keep him or do they stand to gain more by obtaining the haul they would get in a trade?
Keith Law: I think they have to trade him now – both from a rebuilding perspective and that of his likely value going forward.
Kevin: Hi Keith, love your whole deal. The White Sox are in shambles at the major league and their minors offer little immediate help. Should they, in the up coming draft, select a college player (who they can rush to the majors to avoid signing a FA) or draft a HS player (they trade in the offseason to avoid spending in FA)
Keith Law: Best player available. I don’t like the “rush a guy to the majors” idea – I think that has failed more often than people realize when they make such a pick.
Keith Law: And if the general sense that the gap between the minors and the majors right now is bigger than ever is true, doesn’t that make that idea – that we can take, say, a great college reliever and race him to the majors – even less plausible?
Jon: Still playing guitar?
Keith Law: Yep, as much as I can, at least. Finding time is always tricky but I do sneak some in every day.
Caleb: How excited should O’s fans be about Coby Mayo hitting AA already? Also, Is Gunnar Henderson a GUY?
Keith Law: I didn’t understand that promotion, although the others all made sense. He wasn’t actually playing that well until the last 7-8 games, and then went on a little tear, but it obscured some of the approach issues I’d seen earlier in the year. Not saying he can’t figure it out, but I don’t think the move up was justified by the production or how he looked doing it.
Anonymous: You’ve commented previously on how you really do not like Twenty-One Pilots. Can you explain further what you don’t like about their music?
Keith Law: Literally everything.
Appa Yip Yip: You are standing in front of a treasure chest. Do you immediately open it for the sweet, sweet loot, or do you hit it with your sword on the off chance it’s a mimic that will eat you?
Keith Law: Can I cast detect traps?
Russ: Is your reading done on planes, or at home on the porch? At night, or whenever you get a free period (what is the minimum time you need to set aside to set down and read?)
Keith Law: On planes, in the evening before bed, waiting in line or other places, and yes sometimes on the porch. I’ll read 2 pages if I have the time. If I’m at a game and am not sitting with anyone I know, which is more common with so many teams cutting pro scouts the last few years, I’ll read between innings and for pitching changes. It might be 2 pages each time but I might get through 20-30 pages over the course of a game.
Aaron: Has Michael Harris II’s hot, albeit unsustainable, start changed his floor/ceiling at all for you?
Keith Law: No.
Chris: Keith, you scouted Ceddanne Rafaela against one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and Marcelo Mayer the day after he came back from a wrist injury, and was immediately shut down with the same injury. Why do you hate my team?
Keith Law: It is rather unfortunate. Fortunately I know I’ll see those guys again by virtue of geography.
Pat: Baltimore is one of the most reliant teams on its draft models, right? I am surprised Collier isn’t linked to them more. Seems like he would do very, very well for model-heavy teams given his age
Keith Law: Same. But we also don’t really know what their plan is.
Scott (NYC): I recall you were high on Dom Smith. Any thoughts on his struggles? Does he just need consistent playing time? Stop putting him in the outfield? It seems pretty certain Mets are going to trade him and he will revert to 2020 form
Keith Law: Agreed. Needs regular playing time at a position he can play, and probably to get the hell away from a front office that has clearly had no use for him for over a year now.
Randall: What are your thoughts on the timing of the draft this year?
Keith Law: I hate it. The draft should be this week.
Sam: Where are teams with Kumar Rocker? I assume the medical issue still exists. Do you think some team is willing to take him in the first round?
Keith Law: We don’t know what his medicals say and as far as I know no team has seen anything other than the Mets.
Dallas: Bryce Harper currently is the vote leader in NL DH for the ASG. 2nd place is William Contreras. Harper will win but won’t play. Will Contreras be the replacement starter or do you think they treat it like past games and choose the best hitter to be the replacement starting DH?
Keith Law: I actually didn’t know Harper was leading that position in voting. I just pay no attention to AS voting.
Dallas: Vaun Brown just got promoted to Hi-A after crushing the Lo-A Cal League and crushing his college league when a 5th year senior. He’s old. Need to wait and see until 2A, correct?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s 24. Same for Niko Kavadas in the Sox system – just had an incredible June, but he’s 23.5 and most of that came in low A.
Dave: Is Joey Bart going to be anything more than an all glove no hit player? The strikeout rate is unbelievably high, probably even higher than what most expected.
Keith Law: now I just hear Jimmy McMillan saying “the strikeout rate is too damn high!”
Brittney: Wainwright HOF?
Keith Law: I don’t see it.
Greg: Any quick thoughts on your trip to see Oscar Colas and Colson Montgomery? No way Colas sticks as a CF right?
Keith Law: Blog post later this week. Also saw Griff McGarry last night, and will go back again for some of those other Jersey Shore pitchers (Abel, Painter, Brown).
Eric: Re: Gardening, we just closed on a 5-acre property, so excited to really be able to build a big garden. Love eating what we grow, and agree, we are not about growing things we can’t use.
Keith Law: I don’t think we could ever be those people who grow a huge part of the produce they eat – we have the space, but not the time – but now that we’ve shown a lot of plants will grow very well in that space, we’re going to be more aggressive about it next year.
Portofbrandon: I really enjoy the Stick to Baseball posts, and it would be a shame if you couldn’t keep doing them
Keith Law: They’re still going. Already started this week’s.
addoeh: How was teaching your oldest how to drive?
Keith Law: She learned most of it in school – I can’t take any credit here. She’ll just practice with me. Driver’s ed was so much better anyway; as any parents of teens know, they learn and accept criticism much better from anyone who isn’t a parent.
Chris: Could Jacob berry fall to the 20s or is he a lock before then?
Keith Law: I don’t think he gets near that far. Heard Rockies as a floor.
America: remember when we a functioning democracy? me neither …
Keith Law: We were more of one not that long ago.
Salty: Keith – have not seen you mention Black Map in your new music write-ups – didn’t check out the new album yet, or not feeling it?
Keith Law: I think I included one of their singles on a playlist in maybe March? New playlist in the next few days too.
Pat: Is there too much good TV right now? I find I have to keep a list of what I want to watch because at every given time there are 5-8 shows that are really good. Invariably, i catch half of them, forgot about/delay the other half & maybe never catch up.
Keith Law: We feel like we’re hopelessly behind. We did finally start Abbott Elementary last night and watched 5 episodes (of 13) … it’s fantastic. It’s really just Parks & Recreation set in a Philly elementary school with a majority POC cast, but I’m on this show’s wavelength and already love the character development. Also the principal had one line that made me laugh so hard we had to pause the show.
Tom: Noone from AA Harrisburg stuck out to you on your recent trip to see them vs altoona?
Keith Law: Correct.
Mahatma Kane Jeeves: Late to the chat, so apologies if you’ve answered this. But do you like how Tink Hence is being managed so far in 2022? I know he’s a short & skinny guy (and the small sample results have certainly been fun) but it’s late June and he’s throwing 3 innings over and over….
Keith Law: Didn’t he miss almost all of last year too?
Jim: How much of the Phillies’ failure to produce good young talent is bad timing (having 1-1 in a historically bad draft), bad development (screwing up Kingery) or bad luck (Haseley). Still hopeful for Bohm and Stott and the Jersey Shore arms.
Keith Law: I think there was a combination of bad choices in the draft + poor development under the last regime. It’s going to take a little time to turn that player development ship around, but I believe Mattingly/Fuld will get them there.
Dan: Like, you seem to legitimately believe that there is a female soul wandering through the ether that actually, accidentally found a host in a male human forming in utero. That is the basis of all “trans rights” ideas. Buying into this just obliterates my perception of you as a man of science.
Keith Law: This is just wrong. There’s quite a bit of research on the biological basis for gender identity; you are either unfamiliar with it, or choosing to ignore it. It took me a few seconds to find this research paper on the subject: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139786/
Keith Law: And here’s another: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21334362/
There’s plenty of publicly available research on this. Mischaracterizing it as woo, as you have, is quite a tell.
Milana and Stevie: Best baseball movie, to you? We just saw Bull Durham again, and Tim Robbins is a real hoot, but that CAN’T be the best baseball movie ever…can it? (We like Long Gone, with Bill Peterson & Ginny Madsen the best.)
Keith Law: Sugar. And so few people have seen it
Drew (mpls): Any new 2 person games you’ve tried lately? Love Lost Cities and Jaipur, both from your recommendations. Thanks!
Keith Law: No but I’ve got two in the queue.
Jay: Funny or Sad? Jays meet the Red Sox in the post season and the deciding game comes down to the Red Sox Hauck-less bullpen blowing a late lead.
Keith Law: Am I wrong to think that there has been way too little criticism of Houck for this? Not only is he wrong on the science, but the choice is selfish for him as a teammate and as a member of his community. There’s no defense.
Jibraun: Re best baseball movie, Sugar is fantastic, but may I suggest Everybody Wants Some by Richard Linklater?
Keith Law: I love that movie. Excellent choice.
Keith Law: Time to go record the next podcast with DVR, so I have to wrap this up. Thanks so much for all of your questions. Stay tuned for more minor league scouting blogs and two more mock drafts over the next 2 1/2 weeks as we head to draft day, plus a Futures Game recap the night of the game. Stay safe!