Klawchat 4/28/22.

Starting at 3 pm ET. My latest column for subscribers to The Athletic looks at the first few weeks for players who debuted in MLB this month. For Paste, I reviewed Skull Canyon: Ski Fest, a new Ticket to Ride-like game with an extra phase that lets you pick up more gear for the next day on the slopes.

Keith Law: In the final seconds, who’s gonna save you? Klawchat.

Matt: Why doesn’t MLB just stick Angel Hernandez at 3B rather than let him call strikes in a nationally televised game?
Keith Law: Don’t think they can dictate that? The umpires rotate through their positions, and I imagine there’d be a huge fight – maybe another lawsuit – if they denied him the right to work the plate in a nationally televised game.

Aaron C.: Cristian Pache has two walks in his first 63 PAs. A’s seem content to bat him 8th/9th. Even in a lost/rebuilding year, when does it become untenable?
Keith Law: He should be in triple A, and I say that as someone who is a longtime Pache believer.

JR: If the choices for the Mets next Monday are to cut Cano or Jankowski, or demote Smith, cutting Cano is the smartest option right?
Keith Law: Yes. If they don’t want to use Smith, and clearly someone in that FO does not like him, demoting him would hurt any trade value he has less – and I know other teams that like him.

Matt: When you worked in Toronto, did you ever get the sense that players “know” when a teammate sucks? Like say a #4 hitter is up. Does he feel pressure because the #5 hitter ( I’m talking to you Joey Gallo) couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn from 2 feet away? Or is the mindset more along the lines of hitting is hard, he’s a professional, he’ll get the job done.
Keith Law: I don’t remember that per se, but I do remember we could tell when players clearly didn’t like someone as a teammate – you could see the body language differ in the clubhouse, or who was talking to whom.

Aaron C.: Understand if you’d rather not name names, but have you ever scouted a kid with significant “make up” issues who ultimately turned his sh t around and thrived in the bigs?
Keith Law: Yes. But in some cases I can think of, I have wondered if the makeup concerns were overblown. Javy Báez comes to mind – his makeup was fine, he was just a ‘showy’ Latino player and (white) people didn’t respond well to it. They were wrong.
Keith Law: I don’t know about someone with, say, REAL makeup issues, like a drug problem, getting to the show and succeeding. The ones who come to mind never panned out.

JR: If you were in a front office for a team that planned on contending next year, after the draft would you try and sign Conforto to a 2 year/20-22MM contract? Basically guarantee him the QO $ he turned down last December + a little extra for this year to get him in your system? Or would it not be worth trying?
Keith Law: Yes. Not sure Boras would go for it, but yes.

zuke: Ugh….Bench clearing brawls. When will baseball start suspending guys for leaving the dugout and especially the bullpen to go push each other in a scrum?

10….over/under on how man bench clearing incidents the mets are involved in this year. Not even may and already over the old-school baseball macho BS.
Keith Law: I haven’t watched any of this stuff, sorry. I would much rather watch actual baseball. If I’m at a game and a brawl breaks out, I take out whatever book I’m reading. Never liked it in hockey either.

Aaron C.: Any new weeknight meals/recipes in the rotation? My ungrateful ass family has apparently grown weary of the usual blood, sweat and tears I serve them during the work week.
Keith Law: Have been doing one of pasta alla vodka or all’amatriciana more or less every week lately. Neither is very hard, and you can just use good-quality bacon if you’d rather not hunt down pancetta (which is unsmoked, and definitely has a more porky flavor) or guanciale (my favorite, but it’s expensive and harder to find). Otherwise it’s all stuff you probably have in your house. Trader Joes now sells bucatini for $1.70 a pound, and it’s great for pasta all’amatriciana.

Aidan: Is Ezequiel Tovar a top 50 prospect? What he is doing in the Eastern League at age 20 is impressive.
Keith Law: He’s a prospect. It’s only two weeks, though.

Snit: Thoughts on Kyle Wright so far this season?
Keith Law: Cautious optimism. Was so high on him out of college, but his fastball didn’t play the same in pro ball and he was heavy on the slider, which I thought would be the out pitch. His curveball is easy plus now and he’s locating his fastball as well as ever – he might have 70 command, although SSS applies.

ProjectHanyo: What do you think of the NIL and the potential changes in scholarship caps and third paid assistant? Thinking the threat of college becomes a bigger risk which could lead to a few things, like higher minor league salary. But my fear is that MLB will take the NCAA like the NBA and NFL have and make it its de facto minor league system and get rid of the minors.
Keith Law: I think Rob Manfred would be very happy to farm out player development to the colleges, which would be worse for baseball and for players. I don’t think the NIL rules affect baseball. More scholarships would.

Terrified Citizen: Are we going to full-blown war with Russia if this course of events continues?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but, hey, I’m no Eric Feigl-Ding.

Buster: Hi Keith, do you think Maddux Bruns is the real deal based off his early showings this year and what he showed in spring training? Also, how much longer can the cardinals keep Michael McGreevy in High A as he’s just mowing em down and quite frankly, it’s unfair for those hitters lol.
Keith Law: Don’t think McGreevy’s developing there either. Command starters from college should do this in A-ball. I’m in on Bruns.

Jeff: Hi Keith, Twins fan here. Is this Joe Ryan for real?
Keith Law: No – see my comment under today’s piece. It’s not sustainable.

Noah: Are any of the royals “starters” salvageable. Talking Kowar, Singer, and Bubic. Brady just got sent down
Keith Law: Bubic is the one I think just needs to pitch. Kowar needs a breaking ball. Singer needs to go to the bullpen.

Seth: Your thoughts on Bryan Ramos? Is he now the Sox best prospect?
Keith Law: He was #11 on my White Sox top 20 before the season. I think he’s in their top 3 now.
Keith Law: Colás is off to a great start in A+, too.

ProjectHanyo: What do you think is causing all the higher than normal TJ/elbow injuries among the draft class? Last year would have made more sense given how colleges and high schools were restricted due to COVID with training.
Keith Law: Hypothesis: Guys barely pitched in 2020. Then they all pitched in 2021 like they hadn’t missed a year. Now the piper comes calling.

Eric: Why do I have to watch Cavan Biggio when Samad Taylor exists?
Keith Law: Preaching to the choir on that. The Jays fans mad online about my opinions on Biggio have been quiet.

Johnny Mo: If you’re the Cardinals can you rationalize moving Edman to SS and bringing up Gorman?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine that … I feel like it’s a big defensive hit to take. I also was looking at Edman’s batted ball data the other day, and, jeez, I missed on that guy completely.

Michael: I made an insensitive comment to you on your CODA review and want to apologize for that
Keith Law: Oh, thank you, but that’s truly not necessary.

Book: Sorry if I missed it, but have you recently made any good reading recommendations fiction/non
Keith Law: I’ve been reading more the last few weeks with more travel. Jason Mott’s Hell of a Book was amazing. Black Swan Green was excellent too. Emily Fridlund’s History of Wolves was very good. Non-fiction … I interviewed Dr. Ellen Hendriksen (How to Be Yourself) and Kathryn Schulz (Lost & Found) for my podcast after reading and enjoying both of their books.
Keith Law: Currently reading Eating to Extinction by Dan Saladino, about rare foods we’re at risk of losing due to globalization, climate change, or other stupid human tricks.

BD DC: Luis Garcia is killing the ball at AAA.  Has the light gone on?
Keith Law: I don’t believe in any hitter who has that much big-league time going back down to beat up inferior AAA pitching until he does it again in the majors. Not saying he hasn’t changed, but any varsity player should be able to hit JV pitching.

Elon Musk: Gonna stick around, Keith? Free speech for everyone!
Keith Law: I’m not going anywhere. I did set up an account on counter.social, @keithlaw, for folks who fled there from Twitter, but I am not deactivating my Twitter account.

Joe: I assume Gore is getting some help from bad teams but he looks pretty damn good considering where he was a year ago?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time. I’m very pleased with where he is. I still see work to do.

Bob: You mentioned passivity in your report on Evan Carter. Have you found that to be somewhat innate and hard to change or the kind of thing a good development team should be able to help improve?
Keith Law: Depends on the person. No hard & fast rule there. Jeremy Hermida just watched this question go right by him.

Kevin: What’s up Klaw. Hope all is well. Long term for A’s…Murphy or Langeliers? Who would you prefer?
Keith Law: I would trade Murphy and promote Langeliers. Nothing against Murphy, but Langeliers provides a similar skill set, and Murphy should return a big haul. Of course, when you’re playing Christian Bethancourt at first base…

John Standing: Hey Keith, are you a believer in Taylor Ward’s start? Thanks
Keith Law: He has a .531 OBP. I am going to boldly predict that that will come down.

zuke: Does the international draft help players. They already gave away any real benefit when they capped it. But does the draft at least help with the “agent” issues?
Keith Law: If that’s coming to pass, I will write about it at length on the Athletic. I don’t think I could do it justice in a chat answer.

David: Does Jacob Berry have the type of elite bat where he could be a top 5-10 pick even if he ends up at 1B/DH?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Maybe someone takes him there. He’s a DH.

addoeh: Any resto recs in Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads?  Couldn’t find any articles on The Dish.
Keith Law: I actually have not been down there since high school, other than a day trip to Norfolk to see Neil Ramirez about 15 years ago.

Adam: When Manny Machado says to the media that he’ll be “a very mad, mad, man” if Hosmer gets traded off the Padres, should that affect the FO’s actions at all?
Keith Law: No.

J: Another make up question-how does a parents make up issues (thinking of Jay Groome in the past, Justin Crawford this year with Carl’s record label fighting with an artist) affect the player’s standing
Keith Law: The Groome stuff was bullshit. Groome’s father ended up in jail for a whole host of crimes. Jay has had no makeup trouble I’ve heard of in pro ball – just trouble staying healthy.

Pepe: Thanks for your coverage of mental health topics over the years Keith. I suffered from social phobia my whole life but only later learned there is a strong comorbidity with ADHD, which i was recently diagnosed with. One aspect of ADHD is the ability to hyperfocus on things that a person is interested in or when a deadline is looming. This is sometimes framed as a superpower, but most acknowledge ADHD overall is burden to live with.

I saw a recent high draft pick mention he had ADHD on twitter and immediately wondered if teams factor conditions like this into evaluations? I feel like statistically an ADHD person may or may not be more likely to succeed in the bigs (not sure which). To me it seems like being able to focus in the moment or hyperfocus in preparation/training/theory would be a superpower, but also if baseball becomes unfun it would be much easier for these players to “check out”. Have you heard anything about this line of thinking when selecting amateurs?
Keith Law: Teams have different philosophies on such players – some view it as a negative, some don’t care, most I think would just want to know beforehand. A player with a real ADHD diagnosis can get an exemption to take medications, most of which are amphetamine derivatives, while playing, and those medications can confer real advantages to players – which is why some players try to use them without the exemptions.
Keith Law: I don’t know if I can answer any more concretely than that. How specific teams view these diagnoses I do not know.

J: With the NFL draft today, who is the biggest loss that you think baseball as a sport has lost to another sport
Keith Law: As a player? We’ve lost a few two-sport guys out of high school – Brandon McIlwain comes to mind – who could have been really good if they’d stuck with baseball, and then didn’t pan out in football either. (He’s with the Mets now and struggling.) Pat Mahomes was a prospect but everyone knew in HS he’d end up playing football, which I think was the right choice for him.
Keith Law: It’s often hard to say because even the best baseball prospects need a lot more time and reps before they get to the big leagues, and if they quit, it’s at age 17 or 18, before they’re finished products.

Adam: Have you noticed any specific changes that has allowed Nestor Cortes to become this effective? Granted between last year and this year we are still only looking at about a 1/2 year of innings, so it’s still small sample size territory? Is this likely just a great stretch, or do you see a potential mid-rotation guy going forward?
Keith Law: The cutter is the new thing, right? I don’t think he had that before he was waived and traded and sent to Scriberia or wherever. It might be a 70, though.
Keith Law: He might have the most interesting zero-to-hero story of anyone, though. The Yankees had him, lost him in the rule 5, got him back, got rid of him, got him back again, and now he’s (waves hands) this.
Keith Law: Lindsey Adler wrote about some of the Yankees’ pitch design stuff earlier this month, including the slider they call the “whirly” (there’s got to be a better way to say that).

addoeh: Can Keegan Thompson be a back of the rotation starter or is he more of a multi inning reliever?
Keith Law: 5th starter maybe?

Deke: Literally any reason to believe in Eric Hosmer being productive (not THIS productive, but productive)?
Keith Law: All available data says no.

Guest: Matt McLain- guy, Guy or GUY?
Keith Law: Guy. Maybe a 55 in the end.
Keith Law: He was on my top 100, and here in my Reds org report.

Tony: What is missing with Mitch Keller? Pretty much since he came up, his adjusted numbers make him seem like a solid pitcher, but his results are just so bad. Is he basically the anti-Matt Cain?
Keith Law: No changeup, for one thing. The FB is pretty true and I think hitters see it too well. LHB have given him trouble since AA, but now right-handers are too. I’d love to see him try a splitter.

SG: Do you think Elly De La Cruz will stay at SS or do you see a move to the outfield in the future?
Keith Law: He’s awfully big for SS. If he hits, we won’t really care where he plays.

Jon: What are your thoughts on Bauer’s leave being endlessly dragged out? I’m surprised the PA wouldn’t be urging for a quicker decision.
Keith Law: I do not understand it … it feels like both the union and league are kicking the can down Sinister Street (this is an obscure reference even for me).

Dr. Bob: RE: Today’s piece. If a young player is being overmatched, should the team send him down to the minors for a few weeks or let him try to figure it out in the majors? Is there a best development path?
Keith Law: I would not advocate for any of the players I mentioned today to be sent down. I don’t think it would benefit any of them.

Guest: Who would you draft first- Prelipp or Lesko?
Austin: Does Ivan Melendez (the Hispanic Titanic!) have a pro future or is hitting dingers every night in Austin his baseball peak?
Keith Law: Top 5 rounds.

Michael: We are seeing pitchers throw 104 now.  That was unthinkable 20 years ago. Do you think it can go much higher?
Keith Law: I don’t. There has to be a physical maximum, right? I recall an old study that put it around 105.

Appa Yip Yip: Any notes on Samad Taylor?
Keith Law: I was surprised they didn’t protect him. See my Blue Jays top 20 for more.

Mike: How does the last week or so change how we look at Andrew Painter? Does he start sliding up prospect lists?
Keith Law: It doesn’t. A week of performance shouldn’t change anything. And the #1 thing I would want to see from Painter this year is health.

Matt: Have you watched Winning Time? Gotta love the real life Lakers Barbara Streisanding the whole thing.
Keith Law: I haven’t. Never been much of a basketball fan.

Jonathan: Are you buying Tyler O’Niell going forward? Not necessarily as a consistent top 10 MVP candidate but as a legit above average player or is there still too much swing and miss?
Keith Law: He’s been horrible. He homered Opening Day and is slugging under .200 since then.
Keith Law: I’m just saying I don’t know what I would buy. I expected regression. This is more than that.

Pat D: Will starting pitchers ever pitch 7 innings again?  How many teams do you think will keep 14 pitchers during May with the new ruling?
Keith Law: I think the new normal is starters twice through the order. Expanding rosters might keep pitchers healthy but it will also ensure that we see more pitchers per game and no more 200 inning starters.

Cal: Hey Keith, I remember you being higher than most on David Calabrese in the 2020 Draft. Still very young, but any update on him?
Keith Law: Very young but the lost summer/fall really killed him. He needs to get stronger, and he needs to play. He’s in extended and I think he has a ways to go.

ProjectHanyo: Speaking of 2-way players, wonder how much Maurice Hampton regrets rejecting 1.8 million out of high school as he plays baseball only at Samford
Keith Law: I agree, but he did get a championship ring at LSU (football). That’s something. He’s actually hitting a little better lately at Samford and could go in the top 10 rounds

Walt: Following up on losing prospects to other sports, am I recalling correctly that you thought Jake Locker was potentially a high-level baseball player? Got a nice payday as a high draft pick, but never really panned out on the football field.
Keith Law: YES. That’s the name. Great memory.

UGW: Any chance Brady House stays at SS?
Keith Law: I would say zero.

Matt: Jan 6th Committee just said there will be 8 public hearings starting in June. Think it matters?
Keith Law: I think they are right to do it but I doubt it matters. A third of the country thinks those traitors were right.

Frank: What are your thoughts on using an opener?  Have you seen any data related to its effectiveness or lack thereof?  Lastly, is TB use of openers primarily to protect its young arms?
Keith Law: I understand the rationale. I find it annoying to my inner fan.

Rob: Acknowledging that it’s two weeks, are there any other prospects who look arrows up similar to Bryan Ramos?
Keith Law: Not for nothing, but he’s walked 2 times all year with 12 Ks. That’s at least worth considered as a counterbalance to the strong performance on BIP.

Andrew: What’s better for you- clicking to your articles through your Twitter account or just read from the Athletic app?
Keith Law: Doesn’t matter. I’m happy you’re reading. And so are my bosses.

Guest: What was the answer to my Prelipp/Lesko question- didn’t see the answer posted below the question
Keith Law: Prielipp will be able to throw before the draft, and that higher level of certainty helps him quite a bit. But we have basically no scouting looks on him since high school – four starts before the pandemic in 2020, seven innings total before he blew out last spring.

Pei: When someone asks a question such as “Is Joe Ryan for real” and you point out that his current start is obviously SSS and unsustainable, are you implying that you do not see nor have heard anything that suggests the player is tangibly different from how you evaluated him before the season? Because as a reader, when I see a question like that, I am interested in if there is any difference in the player at all, not if his SSS is real or not, which is an obvious answer
Keith Law: I see no difference in Joe Ryan 2022 versus Joe Ryan 2021. But, for better or worse, I take most questions literally. Is his performance this year sustainable? No, absolutely not. Is he a major-league starter? Hell yeah. I believed he was before 2022, too.

JR: I know you’re not a NBA guy, but can you recall the equivalent of Ben Simmons in the MLB? a seemingly healthy, all star caliber player, that can’t play likely due to mental health issues.
Keith Law: I can recall some minor leaguers, but not a major leaguer.

Marilyn: You as shocked as I am with what James Wood is doing?
Keith Law: Mostly. He mailed it in last spring, according to multiple scouts I know who saw him several times. Does he respond the same way when he struggles in pro ball?

Jay: Prediction time. Do you think the GOP flips one or both houses in midterms?
Keith Law: Yes

Ian: Obviously Daniel Espino is not going to have a K/9 approaching 20, but is he legitimately a #1 starter at his peak?
Keith Law: Yes.

TomBruno23: Wet Leg…9/7 at Delmar Hall, looking forward to that one.
Keith Law: The album disappointed me. I often like that droll sing-talky British style of vocals … but theirs annoys me more often than not.

Jim: Didn’t Greinke take time off because of mental health/social anxiety issues?
Keith Law: He’s going to the Hall of Fame. I was trying to think of a player whose career was derailed or substantially altered by mental illness.

Kevin: Would you consider yipps a mental health issue?
Keith Law: Depends very much on whom you ask.

Sam: Where does Kumar Rocker go in this draft?  Will he regret not taking the offer from the Mets, however low it may have seen?
Keith Law: My understanding is that the Mets did not make an offer. They did not have to do so because he declined to submit an MRI to MLB before the draft. Had he done that, they would have had to make a minimum offer to guarantee compensation in this draft if he didn’t sign. (which is a long way of saying the MRI program is unfair and anti-labor, but participating in it is better for the player than not.)

Guest: Is Dewon Brazelton Jr a prospect? Did you scout his father at all?
Keith Law: He was at NHSI. Looks a lot like his dad (who was before my time – saw him in the majors, not as a prospect). I don’t think Jr is a prospect, not now.

zuke: khalil greene comes to mind on players impacted my mental health.
Keith Law: Excellent one, yes. Clearly I should have you guys answer these questions.

Ed: Gordon Graceffo had the velo jump this spring. Short sample, but rolling in HighA.  Seems to be overqualified for that level.  Anything interesting there?
Keith Law: Yes, see my March scouting notebook that mentioned him.

Johhnycakes: James Triantos an MLB regular?
Keith Law: See the link in the last response.

Michael: College seasons are short and they use metal bats. So it’s SSS and has a huge variable. So how do you scout hitters there an feel that you are accurate?
Keith Law: You’re not scouting the stats, though. You use systems to handle statistical analysis. You scout the swing, the approach, the athleticism.
Keith Law: The metal bat is a problem, though.

Mike: Andrew Toles re. Mental health?
Keith Law: Schizophrenia, in fact. Talented, but not a very skilled prospect. The Dodgers continue to keep him under contract so he can have health insurance. That’s a kind thing that they’re doing and a sign that our country’s health care system is a fucking travesty.

Jim: Regarding mental health impacting a career, you could also make an argument for Jimmy Piersall, no?
Keith Law: Came to mind, but that is literally before my time, and I don’t know his story well at all.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Stay tuned for a draft ranking next week, going to 100 names, and then my first mock the week after that, probably going up on May 12th. I should have a draft notebook early in the week on some more players I’ve seen in person. Thank you all for reading, as always, and for your patience with the absence of these chats – Thursdays are often very busy for me and I’ve been traveling a bit more than usual. I’ll do more chats here and some Q&As on the Athletic too. Take care.