My first mock for this year’s MLB Draft is up for subscribers to the Athletic, as is a post comparing high school pitchers Chase Petty and Frank Mozzicato.
Keith Law: A broken soul stares from a pair of watering eyes. Klawchat.
Timothy: So with this many names seemingly in play for the first pick the Pirates have to try and look for an under slot deal right?
Keith Law: I think they can shave a million off anyone they take at 1 … if they’re close to indifferent among the options they can just offer that discount to two or three players, and see who takes it. I agree, though, that’s the strategy so they can go get a high-ceiling guy (probably a HS arm) at their next pick at 37.
TomBruno23: Any specific college baseball games you are targeting to watch today/this weekend?
Keith Law: Nope. I’d rather talk to scouts afterwards and go watch highlights rather than deal with frustrating TV angles and blathering commentary.
Dan: Is Chase Allsup, Auburn commit from Dothan moving up towards the top 100?
Keith Law: Not mine, sorry.
TomBruno23: Wrapped up, How Lucky, by your friend, Will Leitch. Rarely do novels anymore but I enjoyed that one. Even better that I went in not knowing anything about the plot or characters.
Keith Law: I’m reading that next after Brit Bennett’s The Vanishing Half, which seems to be a favorite for this year’s Pulitzer Prize for Fiction.
Sedona: How does the Cards front office miss on Arozorena and Adolis and prefer O’neil and Bader?
Keith Law: I’m not so sure they really “missed” on Adolis … yes, he has the 16 homers, but he never walks and has all of 3 doubles this year. It looks extremely fluky. I was never an O’Neill guy, though – never understood what they saw in him. Dead power with nothing else.
Joe: Have you heard any early returns on if Luis Medina’s improved command and control has carried over from the end of 2019?
Keith Law: Nothing directly, not yet. I’ll go see him in June.
Tom: You mentioned about the overuse of WVUS jackson wolf. How do you evaluate him?
Keith Law: He’s on my top 100. One of the better senior signs in this draft.
Brian: Should there be consequences for college managers who abuse pitchers like what Randy Mazey did to Jackson Wolf last night? Way to wreck a kid’s future.
Keith Law: There can’t be – there is no mechanism to sanction coaches who do this stuff. If recruits started pulling out from commitments to schools that overuse their pitchers, that would help, but otherwise MLB really needs to step in and work with the NCAA to get some limits in place.
Sedona: Mackenzie Gore has not shown control of 3 of his pitches for over a year including 2 springs, alt site & now in a small sample size in the minors. Other publications sited scouts to confirm the lack of control. Do you think he was “effectively wild” in 2019? Do you think he can make mechanical adjustments? Do you consider him to be a top prospect? Or have guys like Manoah pass him?
Keith Law: This is just wrong.
TomBruno23: Great mock, seriously cannot believe two teams get to pick 1 (ducking).
Keith Law: WordPress problem. Autonumbering didn’t work.
TJ177: Is Roansy Contreras’ stuff good enough to play at the MLB level right now?
Keith Law: I like Roansy but no, that’s too aggressive.
Tom: Will Klaw be enjoying any whiteclaws this memorial day weekend?
Keith Law: Don’t you put that evil on me.
TJ177: If Syndegaard can’t ramp up fast enough to get an MLB start this year but his medicals otehrwise look ok, could he still beat the QO value in FA? Feels like someone would still give him a multi-year deal with an opt-out just on upside.
Keith Law: I think no.
Will: Given the Yorke pick last year, is there a decent chance the Red Sox go underslot at four so they can spend more on later draft picks? If so, who might the Sox take as the underslot guy?
Keith Law: Haven’t heard that at all. Yorke is off to a rough start too, for a guy who was supposed to be able to hit above all else, so that may deter them from doing the same.
Sweeney: Is Roansy Contreras a hidden gem in the Taillon deal? Dude has been dealing…..same deal, Maikol Escotto with a grand slam last night and ~ 350/500/450 slash through the first month+. Just low-A for now, but a legit prospect?
Keith Law: It’s less than one month of sample size.
Bryan: Taylor Trammell goes back to raking at AAA. Is the difference in pitching between MLB and AAA that big? What do you expect his contributions to be for Seattle upon next recall?
Keith Law: Not only is there a big difference, but imagine how that AAA pitching would look to a guy who just saw MLB pitching for a month. Like going from calculus to long division.
Keith Law: I like Trammell but I hope they don’t rush him back to the majors, either. Set him up for success. He had real trouble with offspeed stuff in the big leagues and you have to be sure he’s seen and adjusted to the better breaking stuff/changeups in AAA before bringing him back.
Jon: Amed Rosario seems to be turning a little bit of a corner here. Can you expect him to keep hitting or a blip on the radar and will go back to what he’s been?
Keith Law: I’ve always liked Rosario and the last month or so is more in line with what I expected from him, but it’s still a small sample and he hasn’t faced the best pitching staffs in that span either.
Brace: Are Luis Urias’ days as a full-time player done? Or will a position switch lead him back to his former ability? I know you mentioned moving off of SS in the trade article might be a benefit.
Keith Law: I like him best as a platoon 2b and backup IF. He should never have been asked to play shortstop.
Sebastian: I know it’s still super early, but it’s encouraging that Ronny Mauricio already has tied his career high in home runs. Have you heard anything about a change in his swing leading to more fly balls/power? Or just added strength?
Keith Law: Added strength – he was still pretty undersized when last we saw him.
Matt: Okay so just what the heck are we supposed to think about Cornelius Randolph now?
Keith Law: We’re supposed to think it’s less than a month of playing time.
Ben (MN): I don’t remember Trevor Rogers being a highly touted prospect, but he has been incredible so far. I do remember you mentioned him as a possible breakout candidate this year, but do you think he can continue to be a top 15-20 pitcher going forward?
Keith Law: I do. The slider is a difference-maker. He was a first-rounder out of HS, even without that breaking ball, so it’s not as if he was never a prospect – he’s just become a much better one.
Adam: Cherry-picking his outing today, but Spencer Howard looks incredible. Really tough start to his MLB career, but do you still have a TOR outcome possible for him?
Keith Law: I never had him as a top of the rotation guy, sorry.
JJ: Who will be the first 2021 draft pick to make his way to the majors?
Keith Law: Some random college reliever taken in the 8th round.
Harrisburg Hal: my daughter was playing around on ms paint and mlb stole it for one of their ‘local market’ hats… what’s my legal recourse?
Keith Law: Graphic design is her passion, apparently.
Nighter: Do teams care at all about family ties in terms of drafting? Just seeing a guy like Will Bednar where the Pirates just traded for his older brother, David. Obviously they just want to get the best players available in their pools, but it’s kind of a cool thing.
Keith Law: I don’t think anyone cares about that. If they do they should be fired. You don’t get extra points for having brothers on your team or for drafting the local kid.
Brian: I know the Yankees are desperate for bodies but doesn’t bringing up Florial seem like a bad idea assuming he’s up for more than just today?
Keith Law: Probably just because he’s already on the 40-man. He wasn’t hitting at all in AAA.
Jay: Do you like Priester, Tahnaj, Roasny, Yajure, or Brennan more? In that order?
Keith Law: You’re looking for my top 20 Pirates prospects ranking.
Ken: Watching baseball since 1980 I always hear the term “professional hitter” and “professional at-bat.” Within the context of the words I do understand what they are saying. Question in a specific situation – down a run – 8th inning – runner on second no one out. Batter comes up – takes a Ball, hits a dribble foul, swings and misses, and then on the 1-2 pitch hits a slower roller right side 4-3, runner to third. The old school analyst would call that a “professional at-bat” or “the hitter doing his job.” For the analytical guys – is this a good at -bat or a bat at-bat that had an net positive outcome (runner to third 1 out – sac fly can get him in it to tie) or is it a bad at-bat and the outcome is irrelevant to determing if it is a good or bad at-bat
Keith Law: It’s a bad at bat in every way. It’s an out. The team’s odds of scoring went down. The team’s odds of scoring multiple runs went way down.
WHAT: You need to stop what you are doing and watch the Baez/Pirates play from a few minutes ago. We’ll wait.
Keith Law: I mean, I love Baez, and that’s heads-up running by him, but what in the actual fuck was Will Craig thinking? Was this his first day playing baseball? STEP ON FIRST BASE.
Steve: Do you Mozzicato as a over slot 2nd round guy? I know prep pitchers should almost always sign but he seems like the type who can build his frame and add velo
Keith Law: I do. If he were committed to Vandy or Florida, he might be unsignable, but with UConn I think he should just sign.
ugotwilcoxed: Impression of Cade Cavalli a handful of starts in?
Keith Law: Haven’t seen him yet, just Rutledge. I’ve focused on the draft while they were still going, but with most of those guys done playing I’ll shift to seeing more minor league guys.
HomerSomethingSomething: Devers has been a joy to watch hitting lately. Think he breaks out and makes to 40 HR this year?
Keith Law: I think 40 HR is well within his capabilities.
section 34: Let’s say it was a lab leak. What could be done about it?
Keith Law: Let’s not say that, because the odds of that being true are extremely small, and even entertaining the possibility is just feeding the trolls.
John: Franchy Cordero optioned today — does he ever become a productive MLB player?
Keith Law: Up and down guy, IMO.
Chris P: Liover Peguero is off to a hot start and small sample size aside, what does he need to do to get top 100 buzz?
Keith Law: Let’s see him fill out and turn that contact into more extra-base hits.
Tom Plunkett: Coming to Frederick Md to see the “Draft: baseball league? We miss the Keys and minor league baseball.
Keith Law: No, not unless those rosters really improve. There just wasn’t enough talent on them to get me to drive there when I could go see at least six minor-league teams with a shorter drive.
Guest: Expectations for Manoah’s debut today?
Keith Law: None.
James: A lot has been made of the many Tatis errors so far. However, they all seem to be related to his throwing and the rest of his defensive skills look really good. Is that fixable to the point where we can expect him to stick at SS, possibly with good overall numbers?
Keith Law: He may be pushed off over time but his range and hands are really great.
Greg: Just looking at recent drafts and reading you/Pipeline write ups — seems like Atlanta is pretty likely going college route at 24?
Keith Law: I think so. But they’re not anti-HS, just more likely college at the first pick.
Tom: On a scale from 10 to 10 how excited are you to read the unpublished John Steinbeck werewolf murder mystery?
Keith Law: An 11. would absolutely read that.
Steve: I know SSS and all, but have you heard/seen about Pratto so far this season? Is the turnaround legit?
Keith Law: It was a real swing change, and adjustment to his approach, so I’m cautiously optimistic on that one.
Chris P: Gage Jump has been getting some helium elsewhere, but wasn’t on your big board. What do you see in him as a prospect?
Keith Law: I don’t see a top 3 rounds guy. Sub 6 foot lefty without premium stuff. I wouldn’t take that guy out of high school – college, maybe, when you’ve seen him against better competition and have better data too.
Jonas: Any new cookbooks you’ve tried or looking to get?
Keith Law: Hoping to pick up Nik Sharma’s The Flavor Equation soon.
Keith Law: My wife got me Parvana for Valentine’s Day and what I’ve tried has been great.
Dan: What do you make of Rodon’s season so far? Finally hitting his potential after years of injuries? Great start but not sustainable anywhere near this level? Somewhere in between?
Keith Law: I can’t tell you if he’ll hold up, but otherwise I’m buying.
Adam: Should I care that Tatis Jrs strikeout and whiff rate are well below average?
Keith Law: No.
Adam: The untrained eye test tells me that Ryan Weathers is a really good young pitcher with top-half of the rotation upside. What is the trained eye test telling you?
Keith Law: He’s a really good young pitcher with top-half of the rotation (but not top of the rotation) upside.
David: The new Andy Weir book, “The Hail Mary” was really enjoyable with lots of hard science. If you liked The Martian, I think you would enjoy it.
Keith Law: Excellent, thank you, I did like The Martian.
Adam: It’s well documented that AJ Preller personally scouts more amateur players than any GM in baseball, but how notable is his presence somewhere within the industry? If a scout sees him at a game, do they report that back to their superiors or is it so commonplace that most just disregard it at this point?
Keith Law: It’s noteworthy – he’s not seeing players his scouts don’t like, after all.
Dan: Is Brujan from TB all that his numbers this year (SSS) seem to be? If so going to be fun watching him and Wander and others in years to come.
Keith Law: I think he’s a star. Not a Franco type star, but a star.
Steve: Could Alvarez stick at catcher long term or more of a 1b/dh type long term?
Keith Law: Francisco? Never heard any reason to think he’s not a catcher.
Ryan: I know its not your reporting but great reporting by The Athletic on this Mickey Callaway story. I guess the only thing disappointing is that MLB is trying absolve itself of responsibility for fostering this culture across multiple clubs.
Keith Law: Yes, Britt, Katie, and Ken have all done great work on that topic. I don’t think MLB would ever admit to any responsibility for the existence of that culture, or to a failure to stop it sooner (I think that’s the better take – they didn’t foster it so much as ignore it). But at this point I will take any progress as it comes while pushing for more.
Robert: Reid Detmers has added a lot of velocity so far this year. Does this development significantly raise his ceiling for you?
Keith Law: Let’s see him hold it first.
Jeffrey: How far has Kevin Abel fallen since the 2018 CWS?
Keith Law: I’m not sure where you even draft him at this point. Might have been a first-rounder before Oregon State abused his arm. Now I don’t think you go in before the fourth round.
Joe: Given the expected dates of their better MiLB prospects contributing, how long before the O’s are competitive?
Keith Law: I think Derek asked me about that on a recent podcast and I said not in the next 3 years. Their talent is a little too far away and the division doesn’t make it easier. I have heard great stuff on DL Hall, though, and while it’s a small sample, striking out 31 of 67 batters he’s faced this year is (runs Monte Carlo simulation) good.
Chris P: Should we be concerned about Luzardo’s ability to stay in the rotation for a full season?
Keith Law: Yes. Unfortunately for him, the one time he stayed healthy for just about an entire season was the time the entire season was only 60 games.
Kevin: Gunnar Henderson is playing like a top 20 prospect this season. He need to be aggressively pushed to HiA
Keith Law: Counterpoint: No, he doesn’t.
Keith Law: He’s 20, off to a good start in low A, but hardly dominating to the point that you’d think a 16-game sample is indicative that he belongs at the higher level.
Nick V: If you were in the position to make such a judgement for a MLB franchise, would you give the thumbs up or down for allowing your higher value prospects to play for Team USA?
Keith Law: Probably thumbs down, if I’m making a decision in the franchise’s best interests.
Warbiscuit: Connor Prielipp is out for the year. At this point is it still possible he gets drafted with one abbreviated season and a season plagued with injuries?
Keith Law: He’s not eligible this year. He’s eligible in 2022, and probably won’t pitch at all that spring, so he might be a guy to watch for 2023.
addoeh: Italy and Wales in the same group for Euros and you said you were with Wales when it’s rugby. Back with the Azzurri because it is soccer?
Keith Law: Yeah, I gotta back the blue this time.
Jack: Whens the Austin Riley apology essay dropping on The Athletic?
Keith Law: If Riley turns out to be an above-average regular, he’ll make one of my year-end columns on players I got wrong … but I’m not sure if it’s smart to let about four good weeks outweigh about a season and a half of awful. I’d be ignoring an entire chapter of my own book.
Tom: The Red Sox just optioned Franchy Cordero to Triple-A. Do you think Duran is ready to be called up?
Keith Law: I do. And I’m all in on Duran’s swing change and resulting power.
ralph: Chances Gabriel Moreno becomes a Dude?
Keith Law: Aside from catchers just generally getting hurt a lot, I think really high. He’s probably their catcher of the future.
Nick: Some forgotten names Korry Howell and Cornelius Randolph are both off to hot starts and showing some power. Are they on your radar at all?
Keith Law: No, because it’s less than a month. You have to wait on this stuff – it’s even worse this year because of the altered schedules, so if you happen to have faced, say, a certain low-A team that can barely win a game, your stats might be skewed.
Guest: Since Will Craig is trending, why did the Pirates draft him in the first round? Didn’t seem like a good pick at the time and hasn’t panned out.
Keith Law: Never understood that one. Everyone knows Wake Forest is a bandbox and he didn’t look like his power would play elsewhere.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thanks for reading and for checking out my first mock draft over at the Athletic. I’ll do another one of those in mid-June or so, then two more leading up to the draft. In the meantime I’ll be back on the minor league beat more now that the high schools around here are wrapping up. Stay safe & go get vaccinated!