Starting at 1 pm ET. My first mock draft for 2020 is now up for subscribers to The Athletic. I also reviewed the deduction game The Sherlock Files: The Elementary Entries for Paste.
Keith Law: I didn’t mean to take you up all your sweet time. Klawchat.
addoeh: I know your default statement is all 1st rounders sign. Will that still apply this year?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Too much uncertainty on both sides. Strong possibility a team takes a player and offers him 50-60% of slot, says “take it or leave it,” and if he doesn’t sign just takes the compensatory pick next year. (I’d have a lot to say over on The Athletic if that happens.) Also, I think a lot of HS kids will just choose junior college or their original college commitments if they aren’t drafted where they expected they would be.
joshkvt: Isn’t all talk about starting sports premature until we have a national testing plan (or even pretend to have a federal response)? MLB/NBA etc. burning through 10s of thousands of tests for entertainment when sick people of less means and grocery workers can’t be tested seems a recipe for long-term resentment by rational people.
Keith Law: Testing and contact tracing. I know Delaware is moving forward with a contact tracing plan before we reopen too many places, but other states are rushing to reopen without anything of the sort. I’ve mentioned the Arizona data a few times, because I don’t know how baseball restarts if Arizona doesn’t have the pandemic under control yet – the U of A’s site has the state’s Rt at 1.18-1.23, which is nowhere near “under control.”
Nick: I recently made it to the episode of The Wire with Prezbo’s quote that you used in your book. Started watching the show since I’ve seen you praise it a couple of times, and I’ve very much enjoyed it. Also really enjoyed your book!
Keith Law: Excellent choice. It’s a big commitment but IMO worth it in the long run. Never seen a series that tackled that many important topics while also working in so much entertainment value.
Aaron C.: Wife’s been ordering weekly boxes of produce from local farmers. Any preparation recommendations with the occasional eggplant, acorn squash or bok choy in the box, Klaw?
Keith Law: Roast or grill the eggplant to scoop out the center and make baba ghanoush. Bok choy is the perfect ingredient for homemade soup with ramen or soba (you can buy instant dashi powder online for the broth). I am not a huge fan of acorn squash but you can roast it, let it drain a little as it cools, then mash it to make gnocchi.
Aaron C.: Acknowledging that pretty much EVERY celebrity encounter is mundane, do you have a memorably mundane celebrity encounter?
Keith Law: I remember seeing (but not talking to) Fred Schneider of the B-52s on a bus in lower Manhattan in 1992. Maybe 15 years ago I spotted Doug Wilson, one of the designers on Trading Spaces, in a Starbucks in Manhattan. He saw me recognize him, so I gave him the ‘hey’ head-nod and he returned the gesture. I don’t think it gets more mundane than that.
Ryan: Ok so I used to write in these that the GOP was tanking for better draft picks, but I didn’t realize it also meant their tanking involving killing thousands of people …
Keith Law: How can satire survive when one political party is openly advocating for a higher death rate to save the economy?
Dave: Hi Klaw. Just wanted to say that I’m enjoying The Inside Game. I was also wondering if you’re going to send your daughter back to school in August/September because “young people are in great shape” and since “you can be driving to school and some bad things can happen”. Also hoping you can enlighten me as to how a scientific fact can be unacceptable.
Keith Law: Those pesky scientific facts always getting in the way of poll numbers!
Keith Law: (I hope schools reopen, but I’m not an optimist, not on this subject.)
Matthew: Do you think music criticism is an important discipline and do you have any recommendations of any must-read music writers?
Keith Law: I’m not sure how to answer the first part, but no, I do not read any specific music writers as I do with the work of some movie critics.
Ben B: You’re back! No question. Just a sincere thank you for the chat. I’m sure you get trolled to the max and get so many covid questions that there are no answers to, but we appreciate you holding the chat and giving us some kind of interaction to look forward to during these hard days.
Keith Law: I’m sorry it took me so long to do one, but I felt like there wasn’t enough real baseball to talk about – at least now with my mock draft, and a scheduled draft date, we can get back to that amongst your various board game, food, and book questions.
Andy: Any chance Veen or Hancock make it to the Rockies at 9?
Keith Law: Right now, I would say no, zero chance.
Guest: What impact do you think the draft changes will have on 2021, 2022 and 2023 high school graduates?
Keith Law: I think 2021 is significantly altered, because many players from this year’s draft will try again next year (college players returning as seniors/fourth-year juniors, HS kids who try junior college). Then there will be a smaller ripple effect into 2022, and so on. It’s beyond those players’ control, however, so it’s best to just focus on what they can control – their performance, skills, conditioning – and let the draft fall where it may.
JR: I’m sure everyone will ask this…but your current best guess, do we get MLB this year?
Keith Law: I believe the various sides will push something through – there is too much internal and external pressure to make a season happen – but that it will likely happen before the public health situation is sufficiently stable, and there will be a high risk of a shutdown to the resumed season.
Mike: You had the Red Sox going safe in the 1st round with Chris McMahon – do you expect Boston to try to save a little bit of $ at 1-17 to use later given the lack of a 2nd rounder?
Keith Law: No, I think they’ll be one of many teams staying college/conservative because of the way this spring unfolded. Not a permanent change in philosophy but a reaction to this year’s unusual events.
Leo: Would you say Austin Wells is the best college bat in the class after Martin, Gonzales, Kjerstad? Which would be the best comp for him and why he’s not getting the buzz he should?
Keith Law: I don’t think he is the next-best college bat; he’s not getting more buzz because teams don’t think there’s any chance he can catch.
KirkGibsonfan: I think your mock was what you think will happen. If you ran the Tigers – would you take Torkelson or Martin? As a Tiger fan – should I be disappointed that the Tigers take a right handed hitting 1B at 1?
Keith Law: If Martin had come out this spring with the same arm he showed last year, he’d be the easy 1-1 for me. He had some throwing trouble in the first few weekends, and nobody knows (as far as I know) if it was a blip or something serious. I remember Anthony Rendon dealing with a sore shoulder his junior year that affected his swing, but it turned out to be nothing and he should have gone 1 or 2 in that draft. Maybe this is the same?
Tony: With no baseball, I’ve been doing a lot of looking back. As a Hall of Fame voter, how much value do you place on peak vs longevity? For example, if Cole Hamels ends up with 70 WAR and 3,000 strikeouts, is he a Hall of Famer, even though he never had a noticeable peak, just a lot of 5ish WAR seasons?
Keith Law: My gut reaction is ‘no,’ because I want stars in the Hall, not just the good-for-a-long-time types like that or Buehrle. No disrespect to such players, but the plaques should go to the very best.
Aaron C.: Nothing but respect for MY president *checks notes* Blake Snell?!
Keith Law: Indeed. Slapdicks represent!
Peteprz: Think a team in the teens taking JT Ginn would be reaching? How high is the chance of that happening?
Keith Law: I think he’s someone’s second pick. Perfect candidate for that.
Guest: Just finished Smart Baseball (fascinating!), which spurred me on to read Moneyball (almost done!). What should I read next?
Keith Law: Russell Carleton’s The Shift.
Karen: Any new news with MILB/MLB Contraction plan?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything at all since the column I wrote about a month ago. Don’t think the two sides have had formal talks.
Mike: What’s the major factor on Mick Abel falling to #23? Is it the lack of data points from this spring, his price tag, or just general riskiness of HS RHP?
Keith Law: Not so much “falling” as representative of the high risk of HS pitching and the desire to play it safer this year with players we know better. I think Abel is the one definite HS pitcher to go in the first. Kelley might. Bitsko seems more likely to be someone’s second pick too.
Kevin w: i have friends for over 25+ years I’m on the verge of dropping due to continued trump/gop support. Have you had to make this kind of decision in last 4 years?
Keith Law: Not close friends, but I’ve certainly drifted away from some people for their support not just of the man or the party, but of specific policies that I think rely on racist or other bigoted beliefs.
Condor: Dr. Bright appears to be damaging the administration today. Will anything be done?
Keith Law: LOL of course not.
Jeff: Could a team drafting in range of picks 5-10 in the first round, get the player they rank 1-1 by offering 95% of their full draft $ to this one player, signing ncaa seniors for minimum with their picks in rounds 2-5?
Keith Law: That’s the Mike Ditka/Ricky Williams draft strategy, right? I doubt anyone would dare try that this year.
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s illegal, though.
Zach: I saw today that Republicans trust Trump by more than 20 points over Fauci. Not even a bungled pandemic will shake the Trumpers from their cult loyalty. I’m at a loss for how we go forward as a country when intelligence and expertise is so proudly ignored by half the country.
Keith Law: Many people have warned us for years about this rising tide of anti-intellectualism – The Cult of the Amateur, The Death of Expertise, The Age of American Unreason have all tackled this subject in the last 12 years – and I am convinced nothing will work on that subset of the population. They’re simply lost to reason.
Jeff: Who blinks on this revenue split – owners or players?
Keith Law: Owners. I don’t think the negotiated agreement from March even allows owners to revisit this.
Jordan: I’m trying my best to be a good citizen and follow rules, etc., but it’s hard when we have no national plan + I feel like the goalposts keep moving. At first it was “two weeks to flatten the curve” then it was “stay home longer to crush the curve” and now it feels like it’s “stay home until we get a vaccine/treatment” at some point, don’t we have to move into an assumption of risk period – especially now that hospitals aren’t being overrun?
Keith Law: I don’t know you, or your medical status, but it sounds like you’re not the one assuming the risk. Do you want tens of thousands of Americans, most of whom will be high-risk people like the elderly or the immune compromise but some of whom will be otherwise healthy children and young adults, to die so you can go get your hair cut? The goalposts aren’t just moving arbitrarily, but as we learn more about how contagious SARS-CoV-2 is, how it spreads, and how severe restrictions on movement have to be to keep the Rt under 1, some states and countries have tightened their policies to adapt. Dogma does not change in response to new evidence. Science does.
J: Do you have a favourite baseball book? I just finished Prophet of the Sandlots and I found the story interesting (though not so much the author as the subject)
Keith Law: Lords of the Realm.
Jake: Although I think it’s been true for a few years now, it struck me reading through your team lists that you are the only public prospect analyst who does not use some kind of unifying grade. BA, Pipeline, FG, BP and now ESPN with McDaniel’s Top 100 – all publish a grade aligned to the 20-80 scale to help make cross list comparisons easier for non-top 100 prospects. Do you think you might add something like that to your team lists? If not, what’s the reason you choose not to? Thanks.
Keith Law: I will not. They’re not useful, as they fail to convey much relevant information on a player, from the details of how the player is likely to get to that value to the often-wide variance expected around those numbers.
Freddie P: What are your thoughts on Biden/his shortcomings and the trivialization of rape allegations? Personally, I’m leaning towards a 3rd party vote (in a state that Biden will win without issue), as terrible as Trump is.
Keith Law: Biden might not have been in the top 10 for me among candidates in the original Democratic field, but I said from the start I’d vote for any actual Democrat to defeat Trump, and that’s still true, despite Biden’s shortcomings, the possibility that these allegations are true, and some of my policy disagreements with Biden.
Colin: What do you think the players will resist most in the latest offer from the owners? Safety issues? Money? Other?
Keith Law: It’s all safety. Testing, medical protocols, etc. There was no revenue proposal – and, whoa, no dates – this week because, I believe, owners can’t change what they already agreed to do.
Kip: At some point you mentioned writing a paper in college about the use of light in 1984 and Brave New World. Is that available to read anywhere? Also, finally starting The Master and Margarita and really looking forward to it. Your new book will follow. Thanks for all the great content.
Keith Law: That paper was in high school, and I’m afraid it’s long gone. My mom gave me a bunch of stuff she’d kept from my school years and it wasn’t in there. My college essays were, though!
Ray: Noticed you reviewed The Warmth of Other Suns and thought I’d mention, Isabel Wilkerson announced a new book coming out this summer. Keith Law: Ooh, that’ll be a must read.
Zach: Were there any high school showcases occurring during shutdown, or will teams have to draft solely on junior year performance? Think that will tilt preference towards college kids?
Keith Law: Nothing. MLB forbade scouts from even going to meet with players.
Brian: I have a baseball question but first I would like to say I understand how the dark ages happened. Seeing how many people even today just blatantly ignoring science and believing the crap being spewed by people “in charge” leaves me dumbfounded. Anyway, you have the A’s drafting a catcher at 26, is that because you think they really like him or on your board he was the best player available?
Keith Law: Down in the 20s I went with BPA and team philosophies. I have since heard, however, that Dingler is likely to go higher than 26.
Dr. Bob: Does fewer rounds mean more unsigned players? Don’t teams still need players? Or is it that they won’t pay as much to undrafted players?
Keith Law: No short-season baseball this year (or maybe ever) means teams need ~30 fewer new players this year.
Guest: How impressive is it that Jordan hit .202 and a .289 OBP in AA at 31 with 14 years away from Baseball?
Keith Law: In a vacuum, it sounds impressive. I don’t know what it actually looked like.
Mike: What is going to happen to minor leaguers if there is no season? How do you choose who to protect in a rule 5 draft. It’s going to be chaos
Keith Law: Yep. And think of all the lost development time.
Greg: Does Atlanta stay college/conservative? Seems like that’s the route Anthopoulos and Brown went last year in the early rounds.
Keith Law: I heard yesterday they were one of the most likely teams to go all high school.
Chris: With Jerry dipoto being on the record for wanting “up the middle talent” at 6, why do you think he’d pass on Gonzales?
Keith Law: Teams were a bit scared off by how he looked vs Texas A&M, and he’s not a long-term shortstop anyway.
Julian Casablancas: I know you didn’t include The Strokes’ new album in your May music list, but they changed their style a bit and I really think you’d like some of the songs (Ode to the Mets, Selfless, etc)
Keith Law: I did hear several of those songs but they didn’t really do it for me.
Pat: Isn’t there a real chance that players not signing this year if they’re offered only 50-60% of slot end up in worse shape next year because the 2021 draft is loaded with 2021 players AND 2/3 of the 2020 class,so the player’s draft spot is lower? It stinks, no good answer for a player in that position.
Keith Law: Yes, and some teams may try to take advantage of that situation by offering 50-60% of slot. “Take this, or maybe get less next year, or face a second shutdown and a worse situation overall.”
Matthew: Haven’t seen the Rockies connected to Max Meyer at all. Do you think he would be an option for them at 9? I see him as a better prospect than Detmers but he seems to be the consensus selection for them.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they took Meyer.
DJ: So… what exactly are we expected to do if we “never have a vaccine” or, based on latest estimates, it’s 4 to 5 years away? I’ve tried asking liberals this question, but don’t get a realistic response, and there’s no way everything will be shut down that long. We just have to physically lock grandpa and grandma up and get back to it at some point, don’t we?
Keith Law: Four to five years? That’s extremely pessimistic and not supported by anything I’ve seen. I enjoy how much you’re willing to limit the liberty of people older than you are, though. Forgive me for thinking of my parents, my partner’s parents … and perhaps your parents too.
Deeks: Curious what you would do as a GM/SD in this year’s draft, philosophically. It seems the plan to go so college heavy leaves prep players the value as early as the middle of Round 1. If you’re a team picking 10-20, do you sit in the weeds and snag Veen or Kelly? They seem like the rare example of the type of HS talent in this class you don’t pass on for the safety of the college pick.
Keith Law: Don’t see Veen getting out of the top ten. As for Kelley, or Abel, I keep hearing that teams in the top half of the round are hesitant to take HS pitchers given how uncertain the entire year is – lack of scouting looks, limited data, the revenue loss, etc.
Pat: With expanded rosters will we see players like Pearson, Etc be on big league rosters out of the gate?
Keith Law: I hope so.
Leo: If the owners end up blinking, players know they will suffer the consequences of that in the future? For example this very next free agencies
Keith Law: The owners are going to pay less to free agents this winter no matter what.
ronald: I see your prior answers that kids low balled in the draft go back to school, but what if school is closed? does it behoove a kid to start a career under a professional teams watch rather than sit out a season?
Keith Law: We can’t really know now, or even in late July, if schools will be open the following spring.
Steve: Why do people against “opening up the economy” always resort to BS about people wanting a sense of normalcy just to get a fucking haircut? Some people are legitimately suffering from this due to not being able to work, and there’s a common-sense compromise in this situation. It just angers me at the stereotypes prevalent as if this is over something trivial like missing Happy Hour or wanting a haircut.
Keith Law: Arizona, with an Rt well over 1, just opened … fitness centers and public pools. Doesn’t get more trivial or reckless than that.
Pat: You think Milb just plays complex games?
Keith Law: I think there would be some sort of games, maybe like minor league spring training games, on back fields, but not close to four or five full teams’ worth per org. Just enough for a taxi squad of sorts for every club
Scherzers_Blue_Eye: I’m with Freddie P. Biden is horrible. His only saving grace is that Trump is worse. Is that what we want in our leader? “Well, he’s not the worst president we’ve ever had” isn’t a screaming endorsement. The “team” mentality in politics is destructive. The 2 party system is pointless and destructive. That’s the real problem
Keith Law: Okay, and what do you plan to do about it? Your vote for a third party will do nothing to advance that party. You’d have to get millions of people to do the same. I’ve been hearing this same story for nearly 40 years now, and it never changes. No third party candidate has won a single state since George Wallace, ten pounds of racism in a five pound bag. Ross Perot got 5% of the vote, but I don’t think another billionaire is what anyone is asking for right now. You have two choices: Biden, with all his flaws; or four more years of anti-science policies, including massive regulatory rollbacks and no preparation for public health crises, as well as the crushing of reproductive rights, LGBT rights, anti-discrimination protections, benefits for the poor, and much more. That ain’t a choice.
Michael: I think you made a joke about learning the characters by reading Smart Baseball first. Seriously though, we can read them in any order right?
Keith Law: Yes.
Ivan: What is your most / least favorite and or realistic baseball movie?
Keith Law: Favorite is Sugar. Least favorite is Trouble with the Curve.
Mark W: I didn;t swing by here today to talk COVID, but I wanted to respond to the moving goalposts comment. When we all agreed to stay home to “flatten the curve” we assumed that the Feds would step in, announce a national plan for PPE, Ventilators, testing, contact tracing, etc. Can anyone here explain how the Fed response looks like anything other than a surrender?
Keith Law: (nods)
Robbie: Hey Keith, hope you have been staying healthy! This may take more than a chat to answer but how will a missed year impact teams strategies with their top prospects? Do you think we will see some of them skip stages as they have aged a year while missing a year of development? Or will teams send their top players where to the league that they should be in knowing they lost a possible year of their 20s
Keith Law: Excellent question without an answer.
Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Keith – Given the potential length of this virus’ impact, the “stay at home” orders are tough without an end date in sight, particularly for those struggling financially. It feels like we have to just sit back and take the hit. Have you seen any rollout plans by states yet that seem to make sense to you?
Keith Law: Delaware is slowly reopening, allowing some more businesses to do curbside service, while there’s also a plan in place for increased testing and contact tracing. Maybe that’s easier here, in a state with under a million people where the worst outbreak is actually in the rural southern third (especially among immigrant populations, where access to medical care is limited by a number of factors), but that seems like a rational plan that acknowledges the economic hardships many people are facing.
Tom: The MLB draft isn’t the most exciting/watchable event of all time; in this day and age where we are all clamoring anything sports related on tv, anything MLB can do to make the draft more exciting for the casual fan?
Keith Law: Allow trades!
CR: I used to work as a barista back in my college days, but just got back into home espresso as a result of stay-at-home orders. I have a Breville Bambino Plus I’m happy with, and a solid lower mid-level grinder. I was wondering which roasters and blends you’re into, especially if they do mail order. While I have a few local roasters in my area, and some I’ve visited while traveling, I’m always down to try new things and support small businesses in the process. Thanks for the chat.
Keith Law: I’ve gotten beans during the shutdown from Spiller Park (which sells several roasters’ products), Re-Animator, Intelligentsia, Foxtail, Cartel, and Archetype. All are great.
Zachary: If MLB adds a team, is “Wyverns” a great name, or the best name?
Keith Law: A great name. I’m here for more teams taking nicknames from monsters from D&D. Although I would say the Nashville Gelatinous Cubes might be a bit too far.
Ed: Not trolling here. And as a married man who’s a feminist, I find it a really tough question. But here goes. If sexual assault doesn’t matter to republicans making their choice for president, why should it matter to democrats?
Keith Law: That’s not an unreasonable question, but I would answer that with “When they go low, we go high.” Democrats can still hold themselves to a higher ethical standard. I would argue that the standard might be lower than we’d want, because at some point the standard becomes an obstacle to winning, but it should be higher than the other side’s.
Mike: In a dream scenario, Biden wins with Warren as his VP, day one Biden resigns. Even with a Dem Congress, could we then follow the New Zealand model and pay people to stay at home for three months to get this thing eradicated? Or could that never happen in this country?
Keith Law: I can hear the screams of “welfare!” from Americans for Prosperity and the Club for Growth already.
Brian: I know it’s relative but doesn’t this lost year of development disproportionately hurt guys who are like 23 or 24 and on the cusp but need another year in AA or AAA compared to a teenager who would’ve been in High or Low-A?
Keith Law: Yes, and a lot of college players will be hurt as well, not playing this year and potentially starting their pro careers at 22+ without a single appearance.
Mike: Trump loves to accuse others of doing what he does. The “Obamagate” b.s. accuses Obama of weaponizing the intelligence and law enforcement communities which is what Trump is doing now. How does our national media not hammer him on this?
Keith Law: Gotta present both sides. Or something.
Mike: For those who long for a “sense of normalcy,” get used to the fact that the “normally” you crave isn’t likely to be seen for a long time, if ever.
Keith Law: That might be the most salient point of all: Much of the previous “normal” is gone. And, by the way, once this pandemic is suppressed, there will, at some point, be another one – and that next one could always be deadlier.
Robbie: Not to mention 4 more years of judicial appointments, which alone should have every democrat racing to vote out Trump
Keith Law: That’s the biggest threat to individual rights that I see.
CR: The problem with the people who want to reopen because “real people are hurting” is that they fail to realize the compromise isn’t between people who want to maintain the health and safety of as many people as possible and people who want to reopen to save the economy. The real compromise should be the government stepping up and sending everyone UBI for the duration of necessary stay-at-home period and doing the same for small businesses, enabling everyone to hit a universal pause button until this passes.
Keith Law: That’s New Zealand’s strategy, right? It seems to have worked, although they’re an island nation so their borders are naturally a bit closed.
Jack: I think people don’t realize that a vote for a candidate doesn’t have to mean “I whole-heartedly support everything this person stands for and unequivocally believe they will be the greatest leader in history!” A vote simply means “I have the power to control a very small share of the decision, and I choose to direct it toward this candidate at this time”
Keith Law: Exactly. It is a pragmatic decision.
TomBruno23: No real question right now, simply want to say it’s good to see you doing a Thursday chat. Almost like things are normal for a bit.
Keith Law: Just doing my civic duty.
Factz: Ross Perot got 19% of the vote in 1992
Keith Law: Yes. He was the last candidate to get over 5% of the vote.
Mike: Hope you are staying safe. I saw on a Twitter Luke Little from San Jacinto was up to 105 on some pitches. How is a lefty throwing that hard not a 1st round pick?
Keith Law: Because it’s not real. He’s not throwing in games off a mound.
Keith Law: I’m not sure anyone can actually throw that hard.
TomBruno23: I’m a teacher at a K-8 school in St. Louis City and there are already plans for alternative education plans and settings for the fall. No one has any idea how it will work.
Keith Law: I’ve heard from a friend in Pennsylvania that that’s in the planning stages there too. You have to be ready for any scenario, right?
Chris: How far is Casey martin going to slip? Mariners at 43 seem like a solid floor for him
Keith Law: Not a first rounder. Beyond that, I couldn’t give you a decent answer right now.
Brian: Are we all collectively dumb for arguing over whether or not Yadier Molina is a Hall of Famer? I’ve seen people arguing he’s not by comparing his numbers to Jason Kendall.
Keith Law: I would not vote for him, but the arguments are pretty tired to me. It’s not dissimilar to Vizquel: The stats pretty clearly say “no,” but supporters point to invisible factors to argue for “yes.” That’s like a religious divide – we’re not coming to some middle ground there.
JP: how many __aidens will get drafted this year (Aiden, Brayden, Caiden, Jayden, Rayden, Xaiden)?
Keith Law: This made me laugh.
JP: if seatbelts were just now invented in 2020, could they get 55% of the US population to approve of their use becoming law?
Keith Law: My memory could be off but I vaguely remember blowback when those laws were first passed, and I think there was some strong opposition to the 55 mph nationwide speed limit (which saved a lot of lives, but has since been gradually rolled back).
alex: Would you try Torkelson as a LF? Martin as a SS? Or would you stick them at 1b (3b in Martin’s case) and let them rake?
Keith Law: I would try him in LF; don’t think Martin is a shortstop, unless maybe his arm issue was a fluke, and even then I’d probably just leave him at third.
Joeseppi: Please thank TomBruno23 for teaching our kids.
Keith Law: Thank you to all the teachers out there; the ones I’ve seen on Zoom calls and group emails are clearly working as hard as ever, often while taking care of their own young kids at home too.
Karen: The invisible factors on Yadi are like Jim Rice’s fear factor, right?
(Saw this in Twitter recently, took me a half hour of Google searches to figure out why ‘The’ was misspelled intentionally, but holy wow funny).
Keith Law: TEH FEAR … gosh, that’s a trip down online memory lane.
TomBruno23: Can you explain what “Rt” is in regards to COVID-19?
Keith Law: The real-time infection rate. Rt of 1 means every infected person infects one other person. So Rt >1 means the disease is growing, Rt < 0 means it’s going down and will eventually slow/stop. Of course, Rt numbers change too – if you reopen too fast, an Rt below 1 can jump back above.
Mike: Keith, really enjoy the chat. Any idea what Mets are thinking? Due to most top guys in low minors, would they lean towards college kid?
Keith Law: I think more likely college guy, chance for HS bat, highly doubt they’d do a HS arm in the first.
Nate: Is it time to give up on Anthony Alford as a prospect? For a guy who’s always needed as many abs as possible, this situation certainly hasn’t helped but he’s definitely been slipping down lists for a while now.
Keith Law: I feel like his ship sailed, although I hate saying “never” on someone with that much physical ability.
Joeseppi: The refusal by some to vote for Biden is hard for me to understand. I get not liking Biden and I also understand not wanting to put your name on his election. But this isn’t a normal scenario. Am I being obtuse by carrying a ‘Job 1 is get Trump out’ approach to this cycle? It’s really all I care about right now. Hyper-focused on that through November.
Keith Law: Job 1A is then taking the Senate. No small task even before you consider voter suppression efforts in many states with Senate races this year.
JJ: Still don’t get why people think Elizabeth Warren is a viable candidate for VP. The Democrats have to get the Senate back. If she resigns from the Senate, her replacement would be appointed by Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker, a Republican. He’s not appointing the nearest Kennedy. Ergo, her selection as the VP candidate is a non-starter. Political Science 101.
Keith Law: Any such appointment would only last until a special election, which under Massachusetts law must be held within 160 days of the vacancy.
NYCTim: You said earlier that Biden wasn’t among your Top 10 when the Democrats started. Who were your Top 3 back then?
Keith Law: I was a Warren supporter and I really still am. She has just about everything I could want in a President, and I aligned as well with her policy proposals as with any other candidate. But she didn’t have the one thing voters seemed to want most: She’s not a man.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks for popping back in after my long absence; I don’t know when I’ll do the next chat but I will do more between now and the draft, and I’m working on plans with The Athletic for something special on draft night as well. Also, thanks to all of you who’ve bought and read The Inside Game and offered such kind feedback on the book. I’m thrilled that so many of you enjoyed the book. Maybe some day I’ll write another one. Just not right now. Stay safe, everyone.
Got it on RT, thanks for the explanation. Found this site that I’ll leave up as an open tab for the next 12-18 months.
rt.live
I prefer this site, which is run in part by actual infectious disease experts. Its results are not as optimistic, unfortunately.
I’m concerned the owners will win this battle and force players and coaches to play in unsafe conditions for lower pay. Is there hope for the players/coaches/staff not being forced into this?
How are those teams with additional picks this year impacted vs a typical draft? Both SF and StL have an additional 2 picks, now having 5 in the top 85 and 93 picks respectively.
I just watched the Wire for the first time, finished all five seasons in a month. (Yay lockdown?)
What was the Prezbo quote?
Keith- We’ve been getting produce orders from local farms. This week’s cauliflower was positively crawling with aphids. What would you do with that? Just toss it? Seems awfully wasteful but after an hour of trying to drown/rinse them all out, we just finding more and more. Just more protein?
I’d just compost it. That’s a weird one – never had that happen, but I think if multiple rinses (have you tried a produce wash? a vinegar solution?) didn’t clear it out, I’d just break it up and compost it.
Come on – Warren lost because folks saw her changing away from a principled fighter to a bizarre candidate hugging a giant inflatable dog. It was dumb. Her policy also changed for the worse and people dislike that. Then she attacked Bernie on something that makes zero sense and goes against all evidence we have. It’s not that she’s a woman it’s that she ran a bizarre campaign where she liked all the lefts policies but tried to implement them from the right. She was left in a position where she was flanked to the left by Bernie and to the right by everyone else. She has no main support structures and lost her home state accordingly. Nothing to do with her being a woman and everything to do with her running a horrible campaign.
Additionally, I didn’t expect that rationalization from Biden from you.
Amen. I’ve been a fan of Warren’s for ten years, ever since she was fighting Obama on foreclosures. Couldn’t have been a bigger fan. But she made a dreadful decision to tack toward the center and run on “I have a golden retriever” when she should have run on “I like to murder bankers”.
I wish the “people won’t vote for a woman” crowd would remember she was the betting favorite before she changed course.
Agreed. Blaming this all on misogyny (which is real but certainly not the proximate cause) is a narrative that allows Warren to avoid responsibility for her awful choices down the stretch.
When I worked in automotive I read that cars are most efficient between 60-65MPH. Above that and the required energy rises exponentially, below that and you lose momentum fast enough that the vehicle requires more fuel to maintain that speed. There are other factors (weight, aerodynamics, center of gravity) but that’s the extreme Cliffsnotes.
Keith, I’d be interested to see you do an analysis of players both in and not in the HOF along the lines of Tony’s question about Hamels. Like where do you draw the line for that peak vs. longevity discussion. Do milestones factor into the discussion? Someone like Dave Winfield, who obviously played a long time, got some impressive milestones…but only 64.2 WAR, only five 5+ WAR seasons, and only one 6+ WAR season. Would he not make the cut for you? Would you also factor in that he missed time due to the ’81 and ’94 strikes and missed the entire ’89 season which probably robbed him of 500 home runs?
I’m pretty obviously asking all these questions because he’s my favorite player, but I’m sure I could find plenty of other guys both in and out of the HOF whom I’m sure you could analyze along these lines.
Thanks for the chat today!
I clearly remember seat belts and 55 being legally enacted. The blowback was pretty close to today’s 45 fans waving off Covid.
Yeah, it took a generation for people to use them. A lot the initial excuses were that people would rather be thrown from the vehicle if there were an accident, being afraid they would die in a fire, and that seat belts aren’t comfortable. In 1984, NY was the first state to pass a seat belt law and within about 10 years, every state had one. Today, most states are over 90% usage.
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812546
How can you justify voting for a rapist for President, but refusing to watch any films from Roman Polanski? Are you saying to Reade, “yeah, I’m sorry you got sexually assaulted and all, but we really don’t want Trump.”
As a liberal who does want Trump out, I cannot in good conscience vote for a sexual abuser. Besides that, have you heard Biden speak? He will get destroyed by Trump in the debates. Sanders was our best hope and sadly it’s looking more and more like 4 more years of this fresh hell.
That’s quite the false analogy. I have two choices for President, and whoever wins has a substantial impact on my life, those of my friends and loved ones, and the country as a whole. I have thousands of choices of films to watch, and my decision on whether to watch Polanski’s films has no impact on anybody but myself.
Hey Jeff – you sexually assaulted me 20 years ago.
*boom* You’re a rapist!
Listen to all women. Investigate and evaluate their allegations. I’m no huge fan of Biden’s, but Reade’s story doesn’t add up, and has been investigated by journalists who found it lacking. Biden was heavily vetted by the Obama campaign 12 years ago and they didn’t find anything.
And Biden is the Dem nominee whether you like it or not. If you don’t vote for him, you’re voting for Trump. Suck it up and live with it.
You can’t in good conscience vote for a sexual abuser, but you’re fine helping to keep one as President? even IF the accusation against Biden is true, as keith keeps pointing out, there are TWO choices. So if your choices are a candidate with one credible accusation, and one with TWENTY-TWO credible accusations, you’re just gonna be like, eh, they’re both equally bad, I’ll sit this one out…?
That’s like saying “My house and my car are on fire and I can’t save my car so I might as well let the house burn too…”
Just grow up.
Your Biden rationale only holds if Biden is the only way we defeat Trump. He is only the current presumptive nominee. Should we not have a better standard that a nominee facing sexual assault allegations gets replaced by the DNC by any one of the candidates (which in this case is all of the Dem candidates) without an allegation?
If you truly believe that only Biden beats Trump electorally and a replacement Sanders, Buttigieg, or other candidate cannot, then sure. Short of that you are advocating for a horrible precedent on powerful men credibly accused of sexual assault.
I am very surprised to see all this conversation regarding the presidential election. What’s the point of talking about it? We already know that Lisa Simpson is the next president after Trump.
Just a note to Brian that historians now widely accept the notion of the “Dark Ages” as wildly misleading at best. The idea of the dark ages (and a corresponding Renaissance) were essentially invented by Enlightenment thinkers for their own purposes, and there is no great rupture between the 13th and 14th centuries.
That doesn’t even account for the intellectual golden age going on during the same period in Islamic countries.
+1 to this.
If you want to talk about a “dark age” in terms of intellectual growth (or backsliding intellectually) it really came as a result of the Mongol devastation of the Islamic world, particularly the destruction of Baghdad. Even then, however, it was really just a transferring of intellectual powerhouses from the modern Middle East back to the Mongol homelands, where the Chingizids established incredible civilizations with the greatest minds (particularly in terms of art) from the lands they conquered.
The two-party system indeed sucks, and it’s way past time to try ranked-choice voting (aka instant runoff). The best way to strengthen alternatives to the DemoDonkeys and RePachyderms is to ensure that a vote for somebody like Ralph Nader doesn’t end up helping the Nader supporter’s least favorite candidate. There will be a learning curve, to be sure, but I can’t imagine many things healthier for political debate in this country than having four or more viewpoints from across the full spectrum up on that Presidential debate stage.
Amen to Mark W. ‘Open the economy’ *** is *** all about haircuts and bars until consumers feel safe, and that doesn’t happen without a federally led testing/tracing plan, and a commitment to spacing and masks. Although the cosplay militiamen fighting tyranny probably would be cool with executive orders demanding that people go out and spend.
If I would have participated in the Top Chef product placement drinking game last night, I would have woken up today with a massive hangover.
Ross Perot got 5% of the vote, but I don’t think another billionaire is what anyone is asking for right now.
It obviously doesn’t matter but that’s not accurate ? Perot got more like 19-20% of the vote if memory serves me and essentially cost GHWB the election.
The 2 party system is for sure broken but at the moment there is no viable alternative. Every other job you need to have qualifications and go through rounds of interviews. I’d sort of like to see a committee that vets people or something but that’s probably ridiculous
Yes, Ross Perot got almost 19% of the national vote, but whether he was a spoiler for Bush is more controversial. The short version is that exit polls showed that Perot voter’s 2nd choices were about equally split between Bush and Clinton. So based on the Clinton’s margin of victory, Bush would need 2/3 of those voters if evenly distributed, but likely more in practice because Perot had larger margins in the more partisan states. Nader has a much better claim as a spoiler, and Jill Stein maybe does as well.
I am voting third party in a state that Biden will win with over 60% of the vote. My vote for a third party is about as valuable as voting for either party in my state. As someone once said “the electoral college lets me vote my conscious.” If there was no electoral college, I would probably vote differently, but it exists, so third party it is.
On 55 mph, I think it’s fair to note that a lot of the opposition wasn’t from Sammy Hagar fans, but from people who often drive long distances on roads engineered for 70 mph. If you live in a part of the country where long drives are a part of life, or are a trucker, the lower speed limit had a not insignificant impact on your life. I’m not saying their views necessarily should have carried the day, but there were understandable and defensible reasons for their position.
You would vote for Biden even if the allegations are true? Keith, I’ve been following you’re chats forever. You’ve always been on the frontline against any sort of DV or sexual misconduct allegation. Please explain?
Not to speak for Keith, but if the choice is truly between Trump and Biden (as no 3rd party candidate has any chance of being elected), voting for Biden is perfectly defensible even if you completely believe Reade’s allegations.
In the area of sexual misconduct specifically, Trump has allegations against him that are more egregious, more numerous and more recent than Biden does. He’s a gaping pit of immorality. There are degrees of wrong, nothing is black and white. You can favor Biden over Trump, even while being horrified by his alleged actions.
And that’s not even considering all the other deficiencies of Trump as a President, a leader, and just a decent person.
What have we learned about the infectiousness and spread of Covid19 that justified the “moving goalposts”?
I would say that we learned that it’s likely more infectious (higher R0) than we initially thought, and that there are a substantial number of people who are asymptomatic but still infectious. And based on serology testing, we are likely a very long way from herd immunity in most places and thus need to worry about new outbreaks as we re-open. Not saying this justifies “moving the goalposts” per se, but these data should inform public policies.
I’d also add that people presumed to be at zero risk from the virus, such as those under age 30, are dying at higher-than-expected rates too. Strokes and massive inflammatory responses are showing up even in kids. That new information justifies reconsidering earlier policy goals.
I suppose it depends on what our initial assumptions were. I saw R values predicted at 3+. Did we ever hit that?
Asymptomatic cases cut both ways… more widespread but lower rates of severe/intense/fatal cases.
The notion that all the data and science points in a single direction (ongoing and tighter restrictions) is only true if we cherrypick. And that’s before we account for the very real economic toll, some of which can and will be measured in lives.
I’m not supporting any one particular set of policies but the level of certainty some are speaking with is not supporter given the immense amount of uncertainty that remains.
Also, how do we ever get to herd immunity if we keep everyone quarantined…?
There is evidence that uncontrolled R0 is >5: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
Asymptomatic infections make this much worse for controlling the disease because we cannot simply quarantine those who are symptomatic. SARS and MERS were much easier to contain because of this major difference.
Shooting for herd immunity with a high R0 would be very bad, because that raises the percentage of people who need to be infected to achieve herd immunity, plus “momentum” of infections causes the number of cases to overshoot the herd immunity threshold. The herd immunity threshold is lower with decreased R0, and there would be less overshoot as well. If we are able to get a vaccine by the winter, we’ll have been better off decreasing the number of infections as well.
I agree with you that we need to consider the economic toll, but it’s not a simple problem. Sweden despite not locking down is still predicting an economic crisis, because even with mandating lockdowns people have changed their behaviors. Social scientists have looked at the mortality costs of severe recessions, and it’s complicated. Most studies point to net mortality decreasing instead of increasing, even though certain types of death do increase: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28772108
Overall though, I hate that politically in this country we have surrendered to the idea that we can either save lives or our livelihoods, but not both. I don’t think these are mutually exclusive.
I agree with your last point more than anything.
This is unprecedented in our lifetimes. The idea that the answer is easy and/or obvious would be silly if it weren’t so dangerous.
MA Dems hold veto-proof majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and they have said that they would revise the law should Warren become VP. So that shouldn’t be an issue holding Biden back from selecting Warren.
Keith, serious question please. You have two legitimate scientist with credentials that are irrefutable.
Scientist A gives a scientific opinion on (chose topic) that aligns with Liberals/Democrats/Left (describe how you will)
Scientist B gives a scientific opinion on (chose topic) that aligns with Conservatives/Republicans/Right (describe how you will).
Both are legitimate verifiable scientist in their field. What makes one right over the other? Also, the people that discredit EITHER side are (generally) NOT scientist and unless they have done extensive research probably know at tenth of what the actual scientist know but yet they discount what they simply do not want to hear/accept.