Klawchat 3/26/20.

I’ve updated my ranking of the top 25 board game apps for Vulture. My review of the digital adapation of Charterstone is up at Ars Technica.

Keith Law: So let it be written. Klawchat.

Trav: What the hell is going on?
Keith Law: Well, the United States has the world’s worst response to the coronavirus pandemic, thanks to the current Administration, and as a result several thousand Americans will die when they would have survived had someone else been in charge.

Todd Boss: Since the 2020 baseball season is delayed, is Bryce Harper still overrated?  🙂
Keith Law: I’m sure someone on sports talk radio blames him for the Phillies being winless so far in 2020.

Aaron C.: Favorite Opening Day memory from BEFORE you started hatin’ everyone’s favorite team?
Keith Law: Weirdly enough, I don’t think of many memories specifically as Opening Day, despite going to quite a few of them. I think the Pedro-Carpenter matchup where we (Toronto) knocked Pedro around and ended up winning a slugfest was Opening Day, but I’m really not even sure.

WhiteSoxAndy: (What’s the Story) Morning Glory?
Keith Law: I do need a little time to wake up, thank you.

Deke: Best guess — what does the world look like in, say, July?
Keith Law: Pandemic still raging in developing nations, with worldwide deaths in the six figures.

Jordan: Why do the Astros seem unwilling to give Kyle Tucker consistent PT? Does still have the same long term upside as he once did?
Keith Law: I think some of it is his perceived lack of energy or effort, and some just the presence of other players. Upside is unchanged.

Aaron C.: What’s your favorite recipe from Ruhlman’s Twenty? I have the cookbook and…some time on my hands.
Keith Law: The braised duck legs. Never tried a recipe from that book that was less than good, though. His mayonnaise is my go-to as well.

OC Joe: Your thoughts on the MLB Draft proposal reported by Kiley? (July date, 5-10 rounds, 10% of bonus money up front, 45% deferred to 2021, 45% deferred to 2022)
Keith Law: Not what I’ve heard from industry sources.

Chris: Have you tried the Charterstone app? Any word on if it’s any good?
Keith Law: Yes, and I filed a long review to Ars Technica that should run any day now. I played a full 12-game campaign on Steam and thought it was good.

Todd Boss: Is it just me, or does an abbreviated “sprint” of a season kinda sound cool as hell?  Imagine a 60-game season where every game counts and has post-season tension, then leading to a post-season not riddled with fatigue and injuries?
Keith Law: It would be fun, but I also think an abbreviated season will mean games every day, and thus games where all the regulars are in the lineup will be infrequent.

JG: One day the current occupant of the White House will be gone.  But isn’t the REAL problem, the MILLIONS of American voters who are saying they approve of the job he’s doing with the pandemic, economy, etc?  They’re not going anywhere.
Keith Law: Nope. The hope is that there are enough rational people out there to outnumber the cultists, and that the rational people vote, because we know the cultists will.

Zach D: With the pause for MLB, starting pitchers are obviously impacted more. Can you see the league saying: we’re giving you 2 weeks to get ready then game time, and teams just using starters for 60-70 pitches for the first month of the season?
Keith Law: My guess is ~3 weeks of ramp-up, expanded rosters, and then pitchers used more gently maybe all season.

Dark Johnny Rises: Chris Rodriguez’s ceiling?  Make the rotation by 2021?
Keith Law: Call me when he’s healthy. He’s missed two years now.

Jaylen: Why is Nick Lodolo’s upside maybe not as high as someone like Spencer Howard? How would you compare Josiah Gray to those guys in terms of long term upside as well?
Keith Law: Stuff, delivery, FB quality. I did compare all three on my top 100 and would refer you there.

Krontz: When you play Dominion, do you roll your cards out on table before your turn?  My normal buddies and I do, to speed stuff up.  It’s not an issue at all.  I played with other friends recently and they were shocked I did that, saying it was a huge advantage strategy-wise I was giving them.  I told ’em to look as much as they wanted at my cards, not a big deal to me.  Am I missing a critical element?
Keith Law: Doesn’t everyone kind of know what’s in your deck anyway? They see every purchase you make.

Dark Johnny Rises: What do you think about Drew Rasmussen?
Keith Law: Promising reliever.

Chris: Thoughts on the proposed player service time situation?
Keith Law: Still working on a column on this subject. I do think any solution has to give players who play an entire, abbreviated season a full year of service. Anything less creates a systemic problem for years to come (problem for players … owners would win big).

Mike: Keith, what would YOU do re: the MLB Draft?
Keith Law: Still thinking about that one too, but it has to be somewhat shorter, both for practical reasons (less time to scout lower-round players) and needs (more top picks will play in short season, so there’s less need for filler guys).

Andres: Not baseball related, or hobby related, but how do we even begin to recover from this? As in, great, we survive, now how do we undo all the financial damage? Does Trump get re-elected despite the poor response?
Keith Law: We don’t, not really. Some significant number of Americans will lose their lives, and they won’t just be old people sacrificing themselves to save the stock market. (Holy shit, the people advocating that are *terrifying*.) A huge portion of our population will be affected by the losses of loved ones. The economy will be harmed for years. (Note: The stock market is not the economy. It’s not even a good proxy any more.) The labor force will be adversely affected. Many small businesses won’t survive this. I doubt we could ever have mustered a response like South Korea’s, but we could have saved so many more lives had the government been more prepared and responded sooner. Instead we had Kudlow on TV a month ago saying the virus was well contained, a bald-faced lie that only slowed the national response.

Dark Johnny Rises: Bryan Abreu looks like he can be a hader type?  What do you think?
Keith Law: I think Abreu is right-handed, so no, he can’t.

Darren: IF it was a normal year where would you probably be and what would you be doing?
Keith Law: Flying back from Arizona, most likely.

Darren: I personally do not believe we will have baseball this season, and if we do it will be without fans in attendance. Do you think there will be any part of an MLB season this year?
Keith Law: Yes. Half a season. Maybe some games with fans, some without. If we don’t get any games, it’s a sign of a larger problem with the pandemic.

Darren: Have you played Pandemic in the past month or two? I keep playing with my boys for hope the world can be saved.
Keith Law: Yep, played on Saturday. Got smoked once, won the second time.

Guest: Considering it looks like the prep and college seasons are going to be wiped out, is it too early to start linking teams with draft prospects or do we need “combines” or “pro-days” to get that kind of buzz?
Keith Law: No teams had any real meetings to discuss their plans, but I would imagine if they were candid with us most GMs/directors could tell you who they’d probably take in round one.

Erik: Pancakes or waffles?
Keith Law: Waffles.

Don: Would teams be incentivized to keep elite prospects in the minors during an abbreviated 2020 season in order to easily manipulate service time?
Keith Law: I thought the opposite – in a shorter season, there’s more variance, and bringing up a top prospect could have more direct impact on your playoff odds.

Aaron C.: Without getting too deep into your business, how’s your daughter dealing with all this? I have a 16 y/o son who alternates from loud false bravado to quiet concern/worry.
Keith Law: Still doing really well. I’m very proud of her for how she’s taking the possible loss of all the fun parts of eighth grade – she’s upset, of course, but keeping perspective too. I do think she’s a bit bored though.

Zach D: PSA to the Media: Stop broadcasting Trumps daily covid briefing. He’s using it as a campaign rally act since he can’t do those at the moment. It’s like after lie.
Keith Law: They should have stopped airing his briefings three years ago. Better late than never I guess.

John: Isn’t the fact the stock market has climbed because of the bailout package proof that the stimulus is only really good for the rich?
Keith Law: They bailed out corporations, which is what the market wanted, but in no way helps the average American; I think only about 50-55% of Americans own any stock at all.

Danny: Moncada’s defensive numbers were terrible at 2B but quite good at 3B.  Do you see him as an above average defender at third or was that just noise?
Keith Law: I wrote before he was traded that I thought he was better suited to 3b, after seeing him there in the AFL. It looks like that’s been true – his first-step quickness plays up there, and his upright style is less of an obstacle.

Adam: I read your top 100 in the Athletic.  Great stuff!  Do you happen to have a good former/current pro comp for kelenic?
Keith Law: I really don’t do player comps, sorry. I think they’re more likely to misinform than inform.

Erik: Has Greg Jones improved much at SS? I saw him play a handful of times in college and thought he was destined for CF at the next level. Are the Rays really bought in on him as a SS?
Keith Law: He hasn’t. I don’t know what they truly believe.

Joe: With all the other great candidates, how did Joe Biden end up as the nominee?  Do people think that because he is a white, middle of the road guy that he will appeal to the biggest subset of people?
Keith Law: Because he had name recognition. I think that’s 90% of it.

Alex: Just finished Trust Exercise and found it incredibly thought provoking and absorbing.  Just curious, do you have a theory of who the main villain was (SPOILERS): one person represented by separate characters or perhaps multiple people?  I would favor the latter, but it seems like many people favor the former.
Keith Law: Yeah, I don’t know that I have come to an answer to that one. The fact that someone may have ‘stolen’ another character’s tragedy (?) throws it all into disarray in my mind.

Mike: Confession: got 7 Wonders for Christmas, have read the instructions 3 times and still not played.
Trav: I don’t know how MLB could manage allowing fans toward the fall. Reading multiple medical officials suggesting it’s possible, if not likely, that a successful flattening of the curve means another round of this come autumn/winter.
Keith Law: We just don’t know yet.

Dave G.: I’d say that Trump didn’t create this Republican part; it (and Fox News) created him. His skill was reading the room and knowing how to put on the racist, misogynist, xenophobic, pseudo-Christian show the audience wanted. It might not be as bad when he leaves, but the problem isn’t going away.
Keith Law: No, not quickly enough, but I do think the long-term trends on bigotry and on religiosity are both pointing down. Eventually, those people will be sufficiently outnumbered that we won’t get a bunch of budding theocrats in office every time the Republicans win.

Guido L: What is a good recipe to make that’ll last awhile but doesn’t use super expensive ingredients?
Keith Law: I’m a big fan of making extra grains (rice especially) so that I can repurpose them as leftovers (fried rice, although that trick works with many grains).

addoeh: “Increasing the amount on unemployment checks will decrease people’s willingness to work” said someone who has never had to be unemployed.
Keith Law: Or someone who has simply never made that little money and doesn’t grasp that unemployment checks don’t go very far.

Matt: Venn Diagram of people that want old folks to sacrifice their lives to save the economy and those that are pro-life is a circle right?
Keith Law: No question.

Sam: Not that I think the bailout was good or have super in depth economics knowledge, but couldn’t you make the argument that while relatively few Americans own stock, most Americans work for companies that have stock and stabilizing the market may have preserved those jobs at least a little longer?
Keith Law: You couldn’t because it’s not true. 48% of Americans work for small businesses. That doesn’t include the self-employed, or people who work for closely held businesses.

Trevor: Bill Ripken’s book State of Play synopsis: “Advanced statistics and new terminology have taken hold of baseball today, but do they accurately reflect the reality of the game?” Yes. Yes, they do. That is the answer.
Keith Law: I was offered a review copy of that book multiple times. I did not accept the offer.

Matt: I know you too busy to write about it, but did you watch start of Top Chef last week?
Keith Law: No. I haven’t watched Top Chef in several years now.

Arnold: Whenever it is held, how does MLB conduct a draft when there was little or no high school or college seasons to scout?  Do they go by the 2019 season?
Keith Law: Scouts went out and saw players last summer and fall, and then briefly this spring. It won’t be the same draft that it would have been with a full season this year, but they have enough looks and data to have a draft.

Nick V: If you were the GM of an average team/market/payroll with an average roster but a poor farm system and were given 10 years of job security, what would your strategy be to bring that team in contention?
Keith Law: In the current environment? I’d strip the major-league roster to build up the farm system. Being average is a poor strategy under the current system.

Gregory: How much impact will this shortened season have on the development of minor league players? Much impact on ETA? Increased injuries?
Keith Law: It will slow some guys who needed reps – players who might be more physically gifted but were/are still working on baseball skills.

tnj629@gmail.com: A coworker says this virus was engineered by the Chinese government in retaliation for Trump’s policies.  How should I reply to him?
Keith Law: You can’t, really. He’s delusional. Maybe just hand him a tin foil hat.

addoeh: What prospect that you ever scouted most impressed you the first time you saw them?
Keith Law: Harper.

Bryan: Do you think the Dodgers will use Gonsolin in a “flex” role as mainly a long reliever but one of their 12 starters when needed throughout the year?
Keith Law: I assume most teams will try to have a Gonsolin or two on their roster – someone who can start, but isn’t officially in the rotation, so he can be a long reliever or make spot starts as needed. Pitching stats this year, if we get a half-season or so, might be the weirdest ever.

Aaron C.: For some reason, my wife bought a shit-ton of potatoes. Any go-to recipes in the Law household? (I mean, I *could* eat homefries for the next four days, but…)
Keith Law: I parboil them, toss them with olive oil that I’ve used to brown some garlic (strained out), salt, pepper, and chopped herbs, then roast for an hour at 425, turning to brown on several sides.

Drew: As a practicing Christian, I find the platforms of Warren, Sanders, (and now by proxy, Biden) to be way more in line with the teachings of Christ. I even think there’s room for pro-life voters on the left, since their policies reduce the need for abortion. Do you hold out any hope for religiosity to be less cultish and better balanced between the two parties or am I an outlier?
Keith Law: I would like to see real demographic survey data on this; my impression is that the moderately religious are becoming less common, so that we have more polarization – the nonreligious are clearly growing at the fastest rate, but the extremely religious are at least not shrinking, and they vote as reliably as any group. They have every right to believe and practice what they want, but I don’t want them making policy decisions (or choosing judges) for the country.

Jeries: Would a trade for Arenado require more or less than the Red Sox got for Betts?
Keith Law: More if there’s no Price-like contract attached.

Jeremy: Props to all of the leagues, universities, businesses, etc. that are still finding ways to pay employees who are being force to stay home. Those who aren’t, especially the ones who have the resources to do so, and the people that support their actions, can all go to hell.
Keith Law: Including my alma mater, with the largest endowment in the nation, which is kicking the low-wage dining workers to the curb.
Keith Law: I can’t wait till the next fundraising call!

Pat D: Should we be surprised that a place like Liberty University is already planning to bring students back to campus?
Keith Law: I’m surprised on one level. I’m not surprised that their dear leader is pushing false narratives and anti-science viewpoints. I’m surprised he’s acting on those. Maybe he actually believes his own bullshit.

Todd Boss: One fun point about the GOP/Lindsay Graham argument that “we’re giving unemployed people too much money so they won’t want to work.”

Its almost precisely the argument that the minimum wage needs to be increased!  “Hey, why should I work when I can get nearly as much in welfare/disability as I would working 40hrs/week at $7.25.”  

Hypocrite much?
Keith Law: They view it as an argument to reduce welfare/disability checks, to keep them below the minimum wage, and then they can argue to reduce the minimum wage.

Stu: A friend of mine and I were discussing how long COVID can live on surfaces.  It’s pretty scary that some could for instance touch your leg with their hand and the virus can live in that surface for a while.
Keith Law: The virus can, but that isn’t the same as enough viral particles to make you sick – especially since the virus is respiratory. If you lick your leg (ew?) you still probably wouldn’t get sick from that.

Dan: How does Mitch Keller’s slider addition last season change his projected outcome, if at all? Have to imagine it’s still tough to project a front-line SP without a legitimate changeup. The slider looked pretttty nice though.
Keith Law: It doesn’t change it. He has to find a pitch to get LHB out.

Danny: How many annual pop-up guys will suffer from no prep/college season? Keoni Cavaco is an extreme example but how many guys legitimately pop-up like that from not on the radar to top 4 rounds?
Keith Law: I’d guess a dozen or so a year, mostly HS and JC kids, rarely four-year college guys. Brent Rooker would be one of the latter – if he doesn’t get a full spring as a fourth-year junior, he doesn’t go on day one of the draft.

Sam: Any prospects you are particularly disappointed to not get to see this year?
Keith Law: All of them. Not joking. I miss the actual nuts and bolts of going to watch players and write about them.

Scott: With stores having empty shelves mostly around me, what’s the best way to store vegetables and other aromatics for the long haul?
Keith Law: Aromatics should last weeks; many vegetables freeze well. I don’t have a root cellar or anything similar but those do work. If you have white vinegar, you can pickle onions rather than tossing them.

Leo: What can you tell us about Oscar Marin? Didn’t seem to be a big name coming over to PIT, but pitchers seem to be buying in. Of course, Ray Searage admitted to not being an analytics guy so anything is an improvement. Can you see a big jump for Musgrove or a return to glory for Archer coming?
Keith Law: No, I don’t see a big jump for Musgrove coming, and Archer is just a ‘who knows’ at this point as the Rays couldn’t seem to get more out of him either.

Avery: Have you seen Tanner Houck at all? What pitch type or possible delivery change could help his splits be less dramatic?
Keith Law: I have. His low slot and lack of an average changeup make him a likely reliever. His platoon splits are the symptom.

Josh: Where does Dwight Gooden 1985 season rank for you in terms of all time best single season pitching performances?
Keith Law: By Baseball-Reference’s WAR, it is the best pitching performance in the integrated era. I would probably still give the nod to Pedro in 2000 (5th all time) for the ‘best’ honor, given the better competition and high offensive environment.

mike: 3 million filed for unemployment, and the markets are up. anyone that thinks the economy and the markets are linked is delusional….I can’t believe I fell for this shit when I got my MBA. Capital doesn’t give a damn about labor, other than how it can exploit it. Hell, we are taught that in school….
Keith Law: That is generally true: Capital doesn’t care about labor. They care about public sentiment, sometimes.

tnj629@gmail.com: I told my coworker what you said.  This was his reply – Don’t know who Keith Law is or why he is credible?  China has a connection to this. Media can try to cover for them all they want.
Keith Law: I told you – you can’t reason with people like that. He’s like an anti-vaxxer or a creationist. They believe what they want to believe, and facts won’t change their minds.

Eamon: From what I could read it sounded like MIL traded for Urias to play SS. Is there any chance (aside from current injury) Arcia keeps that from happening and pushes Urias back to 2B?
Keith Law: Doesn’t sound like they’re open to that possibility, but I haven’t asked anyone with Milwaukee about this.

Luke: Former Mets “Big 5” – Matz, Harvey, Syndergaard, deGrom, Wheeler. TJ, TJ, TJ, TJ, TJ. Fun times!
Keith Law: deGrom was before he was even a prospect, though. The others, sure.

Dark Johnny Rises: With recent J2 classes producing 19-20 yr old mlb’ers like Vlad, Tatis, Acuna, Soto, and the next guys like Wander and maybe Luciano.  Has int’l scouting improved to rank these guys early?  Do you think Jasson has a chance to be the next one?
Keith Law: I do think scouting and development have improved for those kids, yes. Teams are identifying players more efficiently than they did ten years ago, and clearly helping the elite kids develop faster as well.

addoeh: If you parents named you Richard, would you go around as Dick Law?
Keith Law: Probably not. You should ask my dad.

Fuzz: Wouldn’t corporations that receive gov’t assistance be disincentivized to run efficiently and profitably as those seeking unemployment? Or is this more likely a way for the GOP to funnel tax dollars to GOP donors (Corp execs, owners, etc.) so they will then, in turn, give some of it back to the GOP in donations?
Keith Law: No, no, corporations that receive government assistance would never do that. They’re too busy funneling money back to politicians to ensure the spigot stays open and no nasty environmental regulations get in their way!

Adam: Luisangel Acuna.  Is this a player to keep an eye on?  Bloodlines and seemed to do well his first year.  What’s the upside?
Keith Law: He’s in the Rangers farm report.

Pat D: Listening to CNN right now with them interviewing Peter Navarro.  He’s once again blaming things on Obama for what they “inherited.”  And people believe this shit.  It’s why I know they’re all just cultists.
Keith Law: The Trump Administration inherited a pandemic response team too.

Dark Johnny Rises: Will Chris Paddack’s 2 pitch mix succeed in the majors?  Or does he really need to develop the CB?
Keith Law: I think you can succeed as a major league starter with a plus CH, above avg FB with command, and fringy breaking ball. I don’t think the same is true if you switch the breaking ball and the CH.

Matt: You should up these chats to 2x a week since there’s nothing for us to do.
Keith Law: Aside from the fact that they’re kind of exhausting to do, there isn’t enough baseball stuff to talk about to support even one a week right now.

Hodgey: You can’t expect the jump back to his MVP-like seasons, but is Matt Carpenter get himself into Comeback POY talks? Or was last season the start of a mighty quick downfall?
Keith Law: He’s 34. He’s almost certainly declining.

Tim (KC): Thanks for the chat Keith… so the Braves, then Padres, White Sox and maybe the Rays; who is the next team on the way to building an elite farm system?
Keith Law: Giants.

Aaron G: I crunched numbers last night and figured that we’d have one million-ish infected by April 8th (standard doubling, 3.5 day rate). Assuming summer beings relief, what do you think the odds are of a fall/winter COVID-19 comeback?
Keith Law: I’m really not qualified to even guess at that one. We don’t know what immunity if any you get if you’ve been infected with COVID-19 and recovered.

Dean: Before Sale had TJ news would it have been easy to dump him off on another team?  Or were teams wise enough to stay away?
Keith Law: Everyone knew he had an underlying injury. Teams see everything you see and more.

Griz: hey Keith, regarding Parks game – I agree the photo part is a little wonky but hey, that seems to be the ticket to victory thus far for me, as the end scores have always been close, and those few points from pictures have made the difference.
Keith Law: I agree that the points end up mattering because it’s all fairly close, but it strikes me as a weird or just not-fun way to get points. It’s kind of perfunctory, like, oh, fine, i’ll take a picture.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. I won’t promise another chat for next week because who the heck knows what will be going on, other than that we should all still be staying home as much as possible. I will be writing some stuff for the Athletic in the next week on off-field topics, and I have a lot of board game content coming too. Be safe, everyone.