Klawchat 7/25/19.

Keith Law: Motives changing day to day. Klawchat.

Wilson Ramos: Do you think BVW pulls a Preller? The Mets have a solid number of controllable assets to trade, and they have time to rebuild a team around McNeil and Alonso.
Keith Law: He should pull a Preller, but McNeil is 27, likely to be 30 by the time this team is good again, and not someone you’re building around. I wonder what he’d be worth in trade, given his minimum salary and the high probability he’s peaking right now.

Matt: Prospect junkies seem to always be looking for the next mega prospect. On the heels of Guerrero and Franco, who do you see as the next fixation? Luciano? Someone else? Thanks.
Keith Law: There isn’t a next Franco or Vlad (or Tatis). There are some very good teenaged Latin American prospects in low-A and short-season, including Luciano, Ronny Mauricio, George Valera, and Diego Cartaya, and don’t sleep on Corbin Carroll.

Brian in Austin: Doesn’t it make more sense for the Rangers (indeed, any team in the same position), to just keep Minor and Lynn since they are signed beyond this year, as opposed to trading one or both for some middling prospect(s), which seems to be the only type of prospects teams trade anymore?
Keith Law: I doubt Minor gets traded for middling prospects. Lynn, maybe, but Minor is worth more than that.

Ker Pal: If you were running the Jays, would you trade Stroman or extend him? He’s only 28, appears willing to stay, and is the only MLB-caliber starter they have at the moment. Why deal him?
Keith Law: Because they need more than just him, and there isn’t much other pitching there in the majors or high minors beyond Pearson.

Greg P: In reading Joe Sheehan yesterday, he still seems to think the Giants should be sellers despite this recent hot streak. I tend to agree. What say you?
Keith Law: I completely agree with Joe.

Jim L: Do the Cubs have any internal options to help their playoff push or who should they target? Also, when are you going to The Athletic?
Keith Law: Seems like Alzolay in some role is the only internal help they’re likely to get. My contract with ESPN is up at the end of the year; I can’t tell you where I’ll be writing in 2020.

JT: Is the Nomar Mazara experience always going to be this boring, or should we have more appreciation for a consistent performer at his age?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time.

JR: So, Jonah Fucking Keri, huh? Fuck him.
Keith Law: I might not have phrased it exactly the same way, but I agree with your sentiments.

Jerry: Have Whitley’s or Tucker’s ceilings taken a hit this year? Should the Astros be willing to deal either or both for a Syndergaard, Stroman, etc?
Keith Law: Ceilings, no. I certainly wonder if Whitley is truly healthy. Tucker would be my “good prospect most likely to be traded” for this year.

If only I could hit: I follow the Yankees so this may be true of other teams as well, but I’ve been struck at how well the AAA players employed this year in stints of varying length with NY have played. It made me wonder what percentage of Triple A players might be able to carve out a career if luck intervened, but otherwise might never get to the show. Do you have a sense of this? Thanks!
Keith Law: My inference, without hard evidence, is that the Yankees are doing something differently in evaluating players to bring in as AAA filler, and finding guys whom they can help make adjustments who can be productive essentially for free.

Scott: Miss you on Twitter but hope it’s helping your mental health. I was surprised to hear your personal news also but glad that is going well for you.
Keith Law: Thank you. I miss Twitter’s ability to catch me up on news quickly, but given the continued trash fire in my replies in my daily glances at it, I’m not sorry I took it off my phone.

Ryan: What are your thoughts on Dylan Cease? Results at the big league level have not been great so far. Can he be a top of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think he was ever a top of the rotation guy … when he was throwing super hard, he couldn’t stay healthy. I get questions like this a lot, but I wonder why it’s always about “ace” or “top of rotation?” If he’s an above-average starter, that’s a huge win for the team – those guys cost a mint in trade or free agency. And I think Cease can be that, given time.

Chris: Thanks for doing these chats. If the Red Sox are still a few games out of the wildcard race by the trade deadline, should they trade some of the players on the last year of their contracts or hope that things turnaround with their rotation and bullpen for the remainder of the season?
Keith Law: I don’t know if they could get any real value from trading the Porcello types; given their market & owner expectations, they should probably ride it out.

Michael: Should Cleveland trade Bauer? Will they?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure, but I would certainly do so.

Zihuatanejo: Will all of Ruiz, Smith, and May to still be in the Dodgers organization on August 1?
Keith Law: My guess is no. Ruiz feels most likely to be traded with Smith ready now and Cartaya looking like a GUY.

Jack: Was there any indication Tatis was this good when the White Sox traded him? I saw him the other day and he’s electric.
Keith Law: I’ve had him highly ranked since the trade, and I know the Padres couldn’t believe their luck in getting him.

j: Thoughts on Anthony Seigler?
Keith Law: Three major injuries in 13 months, and he’ll finish this year with just 54 pro games since he signed. He has ability but he needs at bats he hasn’t getting, and catchers who get hurt a lot are worrisome propositions.

Deke: An interesting thing to ponder: At this point, would you say Trump’s presidency has been better than you expected, about as bad as you expected, or even worse than you expected?
Keith Law: Worse.

JAS: How good can Tarik Skubal be? He’s really pitched well the past few weeks, and he’s at AA and dominating. Is he a top 100 candidate?
Keith Law: He is a real prospect, but not likely to see my top 100.

Dan: Ok, notwithstanding that the Rays subs were (probably?) done legally and had no bearing on the outcome- how much more bungling from Angel Hernandez can MLB possibly tolerate at this point? Is the ump union that powerful to protect someone so utterly incompetent? In any event, I at least hope he is not allowed within 500 miles of a postseason venue this October after his debacle last October.
Keith Law: I only saw this after the fact, but the umpires’ lack of preparation really showed, and I agree it reflects poorly on Hernandez in an objective sense – yeah, we all pick on him, because we think he’s bad at his job, but this was an actual failure.

Jay: Do the Yanks have enough to land Thor? I assume any package would have to center around Garcia.
Keith Law: Buster said to me on the BBTN podcast this morning that he can’t imagine the Wilpons trading Thor to the Bronx and risking having him turn into an ace. I agree. I mean, we know the Wilpons aren’t rational.

Adam: Please tell me it’s okay to buy in to Manuel Margot’s last 40 game sample size.
Keith Law: He’s always had a good eye and high contact rates; now he seems to be starting to turn more contact into times on base. I’m in.

Frank: If you are the Giants please tell me the right move is still to sell the desirable pieces and not make a push for a one game playoff. Logic would seem to say they are most likely more of the team of the first 80 games than the team of the last 20.
Keith Law: Absolutely. Outscored on the year, bunch of overperformers on the roster.

Gloria: How are the Dems so bad at this? They have literal sound bites of Mueller essentially calling Trump an un-indicted felon, plainly stating he obstructed justice and all the talk is on optics? And why did nobody ask him about Cohen and if Trump directed that behavior?
Keith Law: The leadership is bad at this, and when younger Democrats disagree with the “shoot self in foot” strategy, the leadership goes after the dissidents. The Keystone Kops were better at catching the bad guys.

ben: You flagged Leonardo Rodriguez as a sleeper a couple years ago. He’s had a great start in Aberdeen this year but is a little old for the level. Is he still a legit prospect worth watching?
Keith Law: I saw him again last night – he hasn’t progressed.

Mike: Kiriloff has had a few injuries this year, but all in all hasn’t been as dominant in 2019 even when healthy. Any cause for concern?
Keith Law: Zero cause. Still a star.
Keith Law: And his injury this year was to his wrist (two IL stints), which you would expect to sap some of his power and contact quality. So saying he’s “had a few injuries” (it was one injury, and one that affects hitter performance even after it heals) isn’t really fair to him.

Wander: What could the Mets get for Dom Smith— a prospect in the top 150ish? Rockies seem like a fit but I cant think of a player coming back who’d make sense, Freeland maybe?
Keith Law: I think he’s worth more than that although the Mets haven’t done much to support his value.

Adam: So, umm, the first unanimous baseball HOF’er is an unabashed Trump supporter? That’s…something.
Keith Law: I was pondering this – if the news, not just his Trump support but his alignment with an openly anti-Semitic evangelical pastor, had come out before the vote, would he not have been unanimous? I can’t say it would have stopped me from voting for him, but I think it would have stopped someone.

Billy Pilgrim: Should the Tigers call Rodgers up?s The guys they’re playing at catcher seem to lack a pulse.
Keith Law: He’s not the solution either.

Adam: How arrogant are front offices about their prospect development processes? When a struggling player leaves their system and succeeds (like Alex Dickerson), then turns around and “criticizes” the coaching of their prior team, do the teams re-evaluate their process or shrug such things off as an anomaly?
Keith Law: Depends on the people, right? Some folks take the criticism personally, some see it as a chance to improve. I’m not comfortable generalizing here.

Matt : If you are the GM of a team like the Giants or As who have real shots at the wild card but a low chance at a deep playoff run how would you handle the trade deadline? A shot at a play in game isn’t worth getting value on tradeable pieces, right?
Keith Law: I’d never give up prospects if I didn’t have a shot to win the division. More so for the Giants, who I think are a mirage.

Amir: As an Afghan American who still has family living in Kabul, hearing the President muse about wiping out 10 million Afghans is both frightening and infuriating. It also makes me all the more frustrated that Dem leadership refuses to start impeachment hearings; It’s like they don’t have the same sense of urgency as their constituents. Just needed to get that out.
Keith Law: It is maddening. A party that once had many policy positions I supported doesn’t give a shit about the country or the planet as long as they get conservative judges and tax cuts.

Gloria: Alzolay is hurt. Seems to be done for the year
Keith Law: Ah sorry, I missed that, thought he was supposed to return.

Pat D: Would you consider trading Garcia as part of a package for any of Stroman, Syndergaard or Bumgarner, even though the latter two are highly unlikely to end up in the Bronx for differing reasons?
Keith Law: I think they’d have to, but I’d probably only include him for Stroman, maybe Thor, not Bumgarner.
Keith Law: My guess is the Yanks trade from their next tier of pitching prospects – guys like Gil, Gomez, Contreras, etc.

Mike: Lewis Thorpe of the Twins intrigues me, he’s got pretty nice k:bb numbers in the minors. Can he be a mid rotation guy, or is he more back end rotation?
Keith Law: More back end, but I like him and root for him to give us an Australian player with enough impact to help grow the game.

Todd: Does Luis Gil have Deivi Garcia type upside?
Keith Law: You couldn’t pick two more different players. Both prospects, but Gil is at least five inches taller, with more velocity and spin, more physical, without Deivi’s deception or mix of offspeed.

Trace: Were/Are you friends with Jonah Keri and what are your thoughts on that situation? It seems as if the baseball community has been quiet about that
Keith Law: I knew him but was not friends with him. I don’t agree the baseball community has been quiet – I’ve seen criticism all over. Julie DiCaro weighed in pretty early. Craig Calcaterra did. Jay Jaffe commented. Every site that used him cut ties right away.

danny: Did I hear you actually gag when Buster said Angel Hernandez’s name on the podcast today?
Keith Law: I laughed.

Big Fan: Is there any merit to Austin Riley going back down to AAA, or does he need to be at the MLB to figure out the adjustments he needs to make?
Keith Law: I think he’ll just go beat up AAA pitchers again.

Sage: Addison Russell days as a Major League Cub over?
Keith Law: Fine with me!

GJ: Went to Pizzeria Bianco this week before the O’s/Diamondbacks game based on your recommendation. Needless to say it was awesome! Do you believe in the resurgence of Corey Sedlock? Former first rounder finally healthy and pitching well. Future starter or bullpen piece?
Keith Law: Based on what I saw I think a bullpen piece.

Nathan : Not sure you’re a Sinclair Lewis fan but have you read Babbitt? Seems like a book due for a revival
Keith Law: I’ve only read Arrowsmith and It Can’t Happen Here, the review of which I boosted in March of 2016 when it appeared that it could indeed.

Mark: Would Eloy’s injury, though not as bad as originally feared, give you concern to move him to 1B/DH? Seems like the White Sox have a lot of prospects geared towards that position, albeit not as talented a hitter as Eloy.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. But you probably have to leave him in RF and hope he can be a 45 defender there because they’ll have too many 1b/dh types unless they can convert someone else (e.g., Vaughn to 3b).

Lark11: Hey Keith, Any reason for concern on Reds Taylor Trammell? His control over the strike zone and athleticism still stand out, but he’s struggled at double-A. Just the usual struggles/adjustments to a higher level of competition? Or, cause for concern? Thanks!
Keith Law: No concern.

Jay: “I can’t tell you where I’ll be writing in 2020” – meaning, you know but can’t say, or you legitimately don’t know?
Keith Law: Meaning I don’t know.

Zihuatanejo: “Hey Keith, it’s Twitter. The Worst People In The World send their regards.”
Keith Law: Exactly.

JC: I assume Kristian Robinson is one of the youngest players in the NWL and he is destroying the ball right now. Any chance he jumps Chisholm for you next update?
Keith Law: No chance. Good prospect, though.

Gus: How concerning is Duplantier’s shoulder injury?
Keith Law: Very, since he’s had it before (sophomore year at Wayne Graham’s School of Arm Shredding).

Jerry: It was only a couple of years ago that Frances Martes was a highly ranked prospect. After TJ, suspension, and now visa problems, is there any reason for optimism that he’ll ever be a contributor to the MLB club?
Keith Law: Contributor, sure. Star, unlikely.

Curt: Thoughts or rumblings on Touki Toussaint? Seemed to be developing into an ace the last couple years but seems like that has stalled and now he’s destined to the bullpen. Only 23 still, but have the Braves mis-managed him?
Keith Law: I don’t think they’ve mismanaged him, but they have a lot of starter candidates and can’t give him starts he hasn’t earned (yet) as they try to win. I think he’d be a very valuable trade piece, though – how can you not love the combination of stuff, athleticism, youth, and makeup?

Ryan R: Is Griffin Roberts already a wasted pick? Many reports on him when he was drafted suggested he was one of the most MLB ready players in the draft but his current stat line suggests he is struggling mightily at A+ despite being old for the level. What’s the deal with Roberts?
Keith Law: He was never going to be a starter, and they should just put him in the pen.

Eric: Do you listen to music on vinyl at all?
Keith Law: Never.

Ridley: We miss you on Twitter but don’t blame you at all. Are you going to use any other platform to fill the void, or are you thinking of just reducing the social media time/effort/exposure?
Keith Law: Still on Facebook, IG, the dish, here. Plenty of places to find me, but where I have a bit more control over the conversation and can rid the place of any vermin who show up.

Dan: Has Deivy Grullon improved his stock or is his ceiling still a No. 2 catcher in the Majors?
Keith Law: I’m not sure why he would have improved his stock at all.

Matt: The Angels have inched their way back into the race but have almost no pitching left. What would you do in their spot?
Keith Law: At least explore trading for one. Adell off limits, make anyone else potentially available.

Eric: Do you have a garden at home? We’re about to build ours out (we currently have guava, lime, blood orange and plum trees, and passion fruit vine) to include herbs and veggies so our kids can learn where their food comes from. What are some of your garden essentials?
Keith Law: I do, mostly tomatoes and herbs right now, although I try to grow peas every spring (rabbits got ’em this year) and typically grow arugula and other leafy greens.

Matt: Reynaldo Lopez just threw his third strong start after the ASB, is his best long-term role still likely a high leverage reliever, or is he good enough to project as a quality back-end starter going forward?
Keith Law: Still a future reliever for me. And that last start came against one of the worst teams in baseball.

Jason: If Riley isn’t quite ready to hit consistently, and the alternative option is Inciarte in center, does it make sense for Atlanta to bring up Pache now? Or is he just not ready with the bat?
Keith Law: Love Pache, obviously, glove was ready yesterday, I think he’d post a .280 OBP right now.

John Zirinsky: Keith: Since the SP market is pretty thin, if you’re the Yankees do you cross your fingers, hope Severino returns and maybe get some additional bullpen help, or say “screw it” and overpay for a Stroman since you have a chance to win it all this year?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t cross my fingers on Severino … he’s been out so long, I’m not sure you can bet on him starting.

Todd: Where do you expect Spencer Howard to fall in next year’s prospect ranking if he stays healthy the rest of the year?
Keith Law: Around the same range he was at last winter, I think. Missing time with shoulder soreness is a concern.

Jason: Not too familiar with Yordan Alvarez’s journey to the bigs, but how do the Dodgers trade a guy like him for a middle reliever?
Keith Law: I think they got him in, saw the body & lack of athleticism, and had some quick buyer’s remorse (they had just signed him) that undervalued him.

Eric: I never thought I’d see a player as ridiculous as 2000s cartoon-numbers Bonds, but, man, Trout is there. He’s gonna end up the greatest player ever, isn’t he?
Keith Law: I think so, or at least good enough that we can have a rational debate about it.

Andres: Hey Klaw, this might be nuts to suggest. But, I think Smith has a brighter future than Pete Alonso. Would it be better for the Mets to explore an Alonso trade and play Smith in the future? I think Alonso, with the numbers and years of control, would fetch a nice amount.
Keith Law: I like Smith a ton as well, but I can’t see them considering trading Alonso given his hot start, 5+ years of control remaining, and popularity.

Billy: Are Adam Duvall or Travis Demeritte worth anything as trade fodder, or is it the juiced AAA ball?
Keith Law: I tried to buy into Demeritte when he was first traded, but he hit .222/.316/.416 while repeating AA last year, and when a guy does that, then goes to the juiced ball and goes bananas, I’m skeptical. I haven’t heard any good reason to think he’s a different player. (He has always had great bat speed & power, though. That’s real.)

Greg: The Indians would be crazy not to trade Bauer right? But could they at least wait- should they wait- until after the season?
Keith Law: Yes, if they don’t like the offers they’re getting now they could wait, but I don’t think they want to wait past this winter, as his value will drop … he’s had all of one good season, and he’s otherwise been really inconsistent.

Frank: Could Dodgers get Edwin Diaz for a deal around Keibert Ruiz? I’d do that in a second, but sounds like the Mets are looking for something like May and Ruiz (maybe we could get Wheeler + Diaz in a deal like that?)
Keith Law: Yes, I think that deal has potential – and Buster essentially said the same on the podcast today. He and Passan are more in tune with what’s likely than I am.

JAS: Is Bryan Mata the next great Red Sox starting pitcher? They haven’t developed a homegrown starter in a long time, but does he have a chance to break through? He’s 20 at AA and holding his own, with increased velocity this year…
Keith Law: Velocity was good last year too; it’s a tough delivery for a starter though.

Manny: What do you think about all the Royals college guys who have come through Wilmington? It looks like a pretty impressive group but how would you rank Lynch/Kowar/Singer/Bubic/Bowlan/Cox? Seems like we have seen a lot of deviation in how analyst have ranked them.
Keith Law: Lynch was the one sure starter (if healthy) of the group for me. Bubic second most likely to start. Kowar > Singer for me. The hitters, though … they’ve struggled a lot.

Nick: Hey KLaw, I really appreciate the chats, I read every single one! I know comps aren’t in for minor leaguers anymore. It’s a high bar, but I see a little Tim Lincecum in Deivi Garcia in terms of stuff and mechanics. Am I just a dreaming Yankees fan? Thanks again!
Keith Law: I don’t see it, sorry. Deliveries aren’t similar, Lincecum threw harder with a better CB (more vertical, too), Deivi has better deception and better SL/CH than Lincecum did at this age.

Pat D: Leaving aside the question of whether they SHOULD get in, do you think Vizquel and Yadier WILL one day get in? I’m assuming you’re a no vote on both.
Keith Law: I’m a no on both. Molina might, Vizquel unlikely.

Pete: If you run the Indians and, as you say, try to trade Bauer, how do you sell that to the fanbase that you’re trading one of your top pitchers in the middle of a playoff race?
Keith Law: He’s a pitcher; is he a top pitcher? A 4.18 FIP, leading the league in walks. He’s valuable because he takes the ball every fifth day, not because he’s an elite performer, and we haven’t even discussed what you’re getting off the field.

JR: Will Parker Meadows be as good as his brother?
Keith Law: I don’t think so given the hitch in his swing.

Matteo Salvini: We await your arrival to our paradise Mr Law. We love all immigrants. About my Mets: Have you seen SWR at all this season, enough progress to reach top 100 status?
Keith Law: No, reports are great, but I haven’t gotten to see Columbia yet. They’re on my hope-to-see list for August. Charleston & Greenville are up here this weekend, so I’ll see them.

Yanns: RE: Rivera, I’m sure politics changed some votes for Schilling so I definitely could see it having an impact for Rivera.
Keith Law: Schilling made comments on his beliefs; Rivera simply had those beliefs. And Schilling’s comments were virulent – he reposted a meme about killing journalists, and openly attacked Muslims and transgender people.

Keith: Do you see Luis Robert more like Starling Marte or Lewis Brinson?
Keith Law: I see him go 0-fer every time I’m there, so I’m the wrong person to ask. (Probably Marte. Maybe more K%.)
Keith Law: OK, gotta run, radio hit & digital video thing coming up shortly here. Thanks for all the questions. I may not chat next week depending on whether I go to Bristol at all for the deadline, but then would return to chat on the 8th, after Gen Con. Have a safe weekend.