Starting at 1 pm. My ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball is now up for ESPN+ subscribers.
Keith Law: I try to hear the music but I’m always losing time. Klawchat.
Greg P: Loved the Mid-Season 50 and I DID read the intro. I already knew you hated my team. Is service time really the only thing keeping Bichette in the minors?
Keith Law: Thank you. I don’t know that for a fact, but I don’t see any good reason he’s not in the majors; he’s better than the team’s current options at SS and 2b.
Trevor: KLaw – Missed the chat 2 weeks ago but wanted to mention the #SmartBaseball move from Michigan’s coach to bat the previous day’s SP 9th as a DH then pinch hit for him with the batter of his choice based on the situation. I don’t ever recall an AL team trying this
Keith Law: I missed that entirely. I like the idea.
barbeach: No question today. Just thank you so much for the chats and the content–so awesome.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I’m just relieved I got the top 50 out given that my fever hit 101.3 *again* yesterday. (I think it’s gone now.)
Greg P: As others have said before, you are the only reason I keep ESPN+ and if you leave, I leave. So, is Lou Bob (I love that nickname you gave him) going to get to Chicago this season?
Keith Law: Credit to Eric Longenhagen for the nickname. I think he will, although I am not basing that on anything from the team.
Nick: Can Alec Bohm potentially play corner outfield at all?
Keith Law: I highly doubt this.
Dana: Do you think the Yanks should bring up Deivi in September/playoffs and use him out of the bullpen?
Keith Law: I think he could help them, but don’t think that he needs to be recalled this year to keep developing.
Brian: Gurriel Jr. looks real (and even decent in left). Biggio seems to be able to get on base, but strikes out a ton (and can’t play D). What do you make of the young Jays?
Keith Law: Don’t think Biggio is anything … he can walk, but that’s it. Gurriel’s power is out of nowhere (juiced ball?), and he has just average bat speed; he’s killed sliders this year, and I wonder if teams will start pitching him differently since he doesn’t handle velocity well. The young guy you didn’t mention, Vlad Jr., is still going to be a star IMO even with the slower-than-projected start.
Jeff: Do you have a sense of why the Padres haven’t called up Urias yet? Is he still working on things at AAA or are they just waiting to clear roster space (e.g., Kinsler)? Thanks
Keith Law: The only thing I’ve heard, and this was secondhand, was that there were concerns about his swing – he may be too power-happy, and of course AAA/El Paso isn’t exactly the place to un-learn that.
Jeff: Given the Padres current/future middle infield depth, do you think either or both of Abrams and Edwards wind up in center field?
Keith Law: Abrams could. Really depends on how he looks over the next ~year at short. He’s physically able to play it, but also looks like he hasn’t had much coaching there.
David: Could Ke’Bryan Hayes get called up in September or is early next summer more likely? What would you do?
Keith Law: Should be up in September.
Trav: It feels less and less likely each day that we make it through Nov 2020 with our democracy remotely intact. No question, I just want to remind everyone that we’re not powerless until Election Day.
Keith Law: Agreed. Never too early to get involved or make your voice heard.
Andy: The players are in serious trouble in the upcoming CBA. There’s a whole lot of things they should want: Higher minimum salary, sooner free agency, no draft, better minor league pay, more on the revenue split. But they have little to negotiate with. Do they have to agree to a salary cap to get any of those? They’ll obviously punt on the minor leaguers/draft issue to help the current MLBPA members more, but that may not be enough. The only actual threat the players have, to increase their revenue vis a vis the owners, is a strike, which will be tough to gather enough momentum for.
Keith Law: Your last sentence is the key. They can strike. They may need to do so simply to remind owners of their willingness to take collective action for the long-term good of the union even if it hurts them in the short term. And striking for a higher minimum salary and for a greater share of industry revenues to reach players is as good a reason as there will ever be.
Brian in Austin: Keith, has Sam Huff put himself in top 100 consideration with his play this season?
Keith Law: No.
Kevin : You are the Astros GM- trade Tucker for pitching? Is a Tucker- Boyd trade good for both teams?
Keith Law: I think it’s fair.
Key Flaw: After actually seeing Vlad Jr. play third base, it certainly feels like he is a DH (he defense was ugly in the O’s series). With the Jay’s out of contention, it makes sense to keep running him out there. But how long does that last, and is there any chance that he actually improves enough to play 1st base, let alone 3rd base?
Keith Law: I really think his body is going to make him a full-time DH.
addoeh: You’ve talked about both recently. Who has better frozen custard, Culver’s or shake shack? Valdosta had your go to Concrete Mixer order and it was pretty good.
Keith Law: I like Culver’s a lot, but Shake Shack seems to have a better product – I don’t know if they use better inputs, or if their blending/freezing process is faster and produces less overrun.
Todd: Where does Robert Puason fit into Oakland’s prospect rankings right now? And if he develops at a typical pace, how long until we start seeing him in Top 100 discussions?
Keith Law: Eyeballing, I would say in the 6-10 range. He’s a LONG way off from the top 100.
Liam: About where on your top 50 would Carter Kieboom rank if he were eligible?
Keith Law: He is eligible. He just doesn’t have that kind of upside.
Kevin : Liberatore in the rotation for Tampa by June 2020?
Keith Law: He’s in low-A now on a tight innings limit. Think about it: Even if he’s promoted today to high-A, the season ends in less than eight weeks, and he’s not going to double-A until at the absolute earliest next April. There’s just no way this happens.
Jesse B: Are Daniel Lynch and Spencer Howard both still in the 50-60 range? Both have looked good but they’ve both had minor injures. Seems like since they’re both 22, they could move quickly if the injures don’t crop up again.
Keith Law: Lynch would have made it had he come back from this shutdown, but Howard’s issue is his shoulder and he’s been out too long.
Brian: Hey Keith, thanks for the insightful new prospect list this morning. I was a little surprised Heliot Ramos did not make your list (19 years old and performing well in High A). Do you see him as a top 100 prospect at this point? What pd
Keith Law: Probably top 100.
Carl: Is Yordan Alvarez still not a top 100 prospect for you?
Keith Law: He’s ineligible, since he’s in the majors.
Eric: Thanks for the chat, and the top 50 Keith. I know you’ve been a big Isan Diaz fan in the past. What are your thoughts on him after his big season so far? Too much question with the AAA ball to get him in the 50?
Keith Law: It’s the lack of recent performance and then he goes to AAA and hits like this … so is this the real Diaz, the guy I hoped he’d become maybe three years ago when I ranked him pretty highly, or is this a juiced ball mirage? He’d have been in the next 50 guys if I’d ranked 100.
Eric: What are your thoughts on George Valera? Chance for big helium and a spot on the offseason list?
Keith Law: I hear good things but he has barely played around injuries.
Andy: With all the tributes to Jim Bouton, I am reminded that Bowie Kuhn is in the HOF, but Marvin Miller isn’t. That was my biggest takeaway from the book, having an asshole in your corner is really good for the labor side.
Keith Law: Yep. Bowie Kuhn did more to destroy the game of baseball than anybody since Judge Landis. The Hall honoring him is a sick joke.
Keith Law: Oh, and by the way, the BBWAA still hasn’t removed Jim Reeves – who wrote an article just two months ago defending a former player accused of serial sexual assault of a child – from the Spink ballot. What a fucking joke.
John : Are Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch Mlb starters? Add Jackson to make up KC rotation by 2021?
Keith Law: Lynch, if healthy, is a very good starter. Singer still looks like a reliever to me between the low slot and lack of a weapon for LHB. Kowar’s probability is somewhere in between the two. Bubic has a low ceiling but his starter odds are higher than Singer’s for me. Haven’t seen Bowlan here yet.
Rick: Afternoon KLaw, non-prospect question for you. Jake Arrieta seems to be quite the curmudgeon. His willingness to “be a team leader” in Philly (ie throw teammates and coaches under the bus when things don’t go his way while getting batters out at a replacement level clip) hasn’t exactly endeared him to either teammates or fans in the city. My question is was he always like this and just wasn’t held accountable in Chicago because he actually got batters out? His temper tantrum over an equally washed up Todd Frazier this past week was a bad look that didn’t portray either him or the organization in the best light.
Keith Law: I think your assessment is accurate – and I don’t see how MLB can avoid suspending him for threatening Frazier (“I’ll put a dent in his skull”). You can’t say that. You can think it, but MLB has to put the clamp down on public threats.
Pat D: Something that is annoying me mightily right now from the great cesspool that is NYC sports talk radio is the assumption that because Bumgarner was great in the postseason 5-7 years ago, he’ll be great in the postseason now, and for that reason alone, the Yankees should acquire him above anyone else. Is there any way you can even hope to present a counter-argument to someone entrenched with that belief?
Keith Law: No, probably because the basic premise is flawed, and you won’t convince someone one of their core beliefs is wrong.
Liam: What’s wrong with Thor?
Keith Law: Here’s one guess: this year’s super-smooth baseball is killing his slider.
Adam: At this point, would you rank Luciano, Ramos and Bishop ahead of Bart in the Giants farm system?
Keith Law: maybe, yes, no.
MJ: Fantastic work on the list, Keith. Any brief thoughts on Tyler Freeman? Seems to have some of the same plate/OBP skills as Alek Thomas and Nolan Jones, albeit without the athleticism of the former and potential pop of the latter.
Keith Law: He’s more in Thomas’ vein – and he’s pretty small, so his impact is really likely to be limited.
Keith Law: Nice player, though. Probably top 100, not close to this.
Denis: Surprised to see Gavin Lux at #5. If he switched to 2B is he still in the top 10? Also, if you are the Dodgers, who would you keep out of Smith/Ruiz? Does Ruiz still have the higher ceiling?
Keith Law: Ruiz has the higher ceiling but I’d keep Smith because he’s ready now. Not that either is a wrong choice. no reason to bump Lux from SS.
Ridley: Just to expand on Trav’s point, now that the Supreme Court has decided that gerrymandering is beyond their reach, there’s no better time to get involved at the local and state levels to ensure that independent commissions are in place to ensure that neither party abuses redistricting.
Keith Law: Right, because if your state is gerrymandered next time around, it may become de facto permanent.
SGz: What is the rationale for Jesus Luzardo missing the Top 50? Thanks.
Keith Law: What is the rationale for him making it? He’s 21 with a pretty lengthy list of injuries already.
Rick: As a constitutional conservative who didn’t vote in the 2016 presidential election (both candidates made me physically ill) I can’t see myself going to the ballot box in 2020 [again]. Trump is Trump, and the takeaway from the Dem debates so far was: keep southern border open for potential votes and cheap labor, expand healthcare to illegal aliens, pay off existing college debt, offer voting rights to felons and mid-teens. This is supposed to motivate me to vote? Still waiting for the voice of sanity to step up.
Keith Law: If that’s your takeaway from the debates, I think you went into the debates having already decided what you want to hear. A non-vote in 2020 is a vote for Trump. It means you’re fine with a status quo that is imprisoning children, mistreating them, exposing them to trauma, just because they’re brown. It means you’re cool with the world’s largest economy still pretending climate change isn’t real – even though huge portions of our economy and our country will be adversely affected by it. People will die needlessly because of this. It means you’re fine with a government that turns its back on democratic allies to support autocratic governments that assassinate political opponents, including journalists, because it suits short-term political aims. It means you’re fine with the kleptocracy that ignores rampant conflicts of interest, enriching officeholders across the government, because you just want low taxes and a ban on abortion. Yeah, you’re a Trump supporter. You just lack the courage to admit it.
John: Has Seth Beer impressed with his performance so far?
Keith Law: Really needs to show he can hit LHP.
mark: Dinelson Lamet recently returned to the Pads after TJS. What kind of upside does he have… #3 starter?
Keith Law: Two-pitch guy who’ll end up in the pen if that doesn’t change.
Paul: I’m sure some of my fellow Braves fans are bitching about Waters’ omission; already saw one person on Twitter. Not here to do that, but am curious what you think of him? BABIP is absurd (.457) with an alarming K-rate and not many walks. Something he can fix or overcome with the rest of his game? And likelihood of him doing that? Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: Solid prospect but he’s a corner guy long term. The K rate isn’t alarming on its own, especially since he’s young for AA, but the combination of low walk rates his whole career and rising K rates is concerning. Again, like a lot of guys folks are asking about here, he’s a top 100 type, but this is just a 50, and that means I’m only ranking the best.
Justin: When players makes their major league debut why is the note that the player has been recalled by the team? Shouldn’t that be for players that were demoted and then brought back?
Keith Law: If a player is recalled, then he was demoted when he was optioned in spring training. When a player is recalled, it means he’s already on the 40-man; if he’s already on the 40-man, but was in the minors, then he was in major league spring training (the entire 40-man comes) and was sent to the minors on optional assignment before the spring ended. If the player isn’t on the 40-man, his contract is “purchased,” which means he’s added to the 40-man at the time he’s brought to the majors.
romorr: Hall and Rodriguez both have a reliever chance, Halls BB% is going the wrong way, and Rodriguez has funk in the delivery. But if you had to pick to stick in the rotation, would it be Rodriguez still?
Keith Law: It would not, and I think my ranking of them today and in the winter makes that clear.
addoeh: Two prospects from Wisconsin (Kelenic and Lux) in your top 8 and one from Chicago (Thomas) at 45 and I may have missed others from the Midwest. Along with Priester just being drafted in the 1st round, will the fear of prospects from cold states start to subside?
Keith Law: I don’t think it will, but I’m sort of okay with that. Some is just structural: we get fewer looks at high school players in cold climates. It’s also a reason for MLB to do more (and they’re doing some) to give those players chances to play in front of scouts against better competition.
Liam: My apologies if there is an obvious example I’m missing but have we ever seen an administration so blatantly go against a supreme court ruling as the current admin plans re: citizenship/census question?
Keith Law: Did Nixon? This is way out of my area.
Keith Law: Again, that’s another thing that anyone who abstains in 2020 is supporting: An overt rejection of the rule of law that has defined our system of government for nearly 250 years. You can even hate Trump’s opponent, but if you don’t vote him and his swamp dragons out, then you’re saying you are tacitly okay with what he’s doing.
Todd: With the news that Bubba Starling is getting called up to KC, do you think there’s even the tiniest chance he’ll spend time as a true big league regular?
Keith Law: No.
Ben: Why would anyone listen to sports talk radio? Have you ever encountered a decent STR station throughout your many travels across the country?
Keith Law: I don’t listen to terrestrial radio, ever, so I have no answer to that. I appear on a few sports radio programs and I know they treat me well by asking good questions.
Ron: I was surprised that Lewis even made your top 50 beings his first half was poor and his mechanics changed. Although he has started to heat up. Did he make any changes that you know of back to how he was before? Thanks!
Keith Law: I addressed that in the piece.
SGz: You had Luzardo at 31 on pre season rankings and he’s been very good when playing this year. Health was the knock in the pre season, so it seems like a reasonable question to ask why he was omitted.
Keith Law: Health was the knock and he’s been banged up again.
Joe: Justus Sheffield has put up good numbers after being sent to AA. Still the same guy he was before the season started in your mind?
Keith Law: I want to know why his velocity dropped off this year.
John: One concern about Dustin May – even to those who like him – is the results haven’t always matched the stuff. How legit is that concern for you?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s accurate. He’s been outstanding this year.
mike sixel: Royce Lewis…..is his fall mostly that your fears of him at SS are confirmed? A year of not hitting in A+? Clearly his change to his hitting is not going well. Did he do that on his own? Thanks,
Keith Law: Much more about not hitting/visible changes to his mechanics. I have never bought into the claims that he’ll stay at short: He’s not good there, and he could be very good in CF, maybe a 70 or better defender there. Most organizations would probably have moved him but the Twins have an 80 defender in center in the majors, so that may be one reason why they haven’t.
Devin: Thoughts on Kristian Robinson? Candidate to crack your top 100 next year?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100 in the winter, so yes.
Tmh: What is Rutchman”s ETA?
Keith Law: I would say end of 2020 if they want.
romorr: Having a hard time getting a read on if Keegan Akin is ready for the majors. Orioles are starting guys they pick up off waivers like crazy, so it seems Akin needs to work on some things before a promotion.
Keith Law: I agree that seems to be the implication, although I’m not sure what they think is going to change in his profile, either.
John: Alexander Canario just hit his 8th hr in under 80 abs. Will he be a legit prospect for the org?
Keith Law: He is one.
Keith Law: He’s a legit prospect, I mean.
Rick Sanchez : Worried about Mize at all?
Keith Law: Not yet.
Keith Law: yeah I just triple-checked, the MLB.com story says there were no setbacks last night. After I sent that response I thought I might have missed something.
OC Joe: Newcomb and Touki have thrived in relief this season. With all of the starting pitching depth in the high minors for Atlanta, should they stay in the pen?
Keith Law: I think that’s Newcomb’s role, but Touki still has starter potential.
Rick: In regard to Liam’s comment on the Supreme Court this pains me as a holder of a BA and Master’s in History. Did your school system teach you literally NO AMERICAN HISTORY? Andrew Jackson’s response to the court’s ruling in Worcester v. Georgia: “Justice Marshall has made his decision now let him go enforce it.” Christ almighty I understand that you may have serious issues with this White House and it’s actions but try not to be completely ignorant on history when making “all encompassing” claims. When Trump says that then we can call it the greatest attack on the Supreme Court in our history. Until then its not on the medal stand.
Keith Law: I admit to having forgotten that entire case until I saw your quote from Jackson (it’s a good line by a terrible person), probably because it happened 140 years before I was born.
Matt M: Would Nico Hoerner crack your top 100?
Keith Law: Probably. A lot of people asking why he’s not on the top 50 and … again, why would he be? He has barely played this year due to injury and it’s not like he’s a huge tools guy: His value is in the expectation that he’s going to hit.
Valentin: Hi Keith. big fan from Bern, Switzerland. have you ever heard of Prospects coming from Switzerland? Kind regards
Keith Law: The Swiss have fielded teams in youth tournaments in Europe for a while, but I’ve never heard of a player signing from there. The most likely places for teams to find European prospects right now are Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy, i think.
Tim: Vavra has been outstanding this season. Has he passed Vilade for you yet?
Keith Law: Vavra is two years older than Vilade (who is performing) and a level below. Both are prospects, but there’s not a strong argument right now for Vavra over Vilade – and Vavra is yet another college D1 product who should NOT be in low-A.
Jason: Harris or Warren?
Keith Law: I was about to ask what team. I might not be fully recovered yet.
John: Were you a big mixtape guy? I don’t know if you ever listen to my favorite local Seattle station (KEXP) or not, but they’re running a cool little mixtape contest. Given your affinity for music and playlists, seems like something you could have some fun with.
Keith Law: A little bit, yes – I would nearly always choose to listen to my own tapes and later CDs rather than listen to full albums or put on the radio.
addoeh: Have you ever heard of a player have a similar journey to the majors as Robel Garcia’s?
Keith Law: No, and I mean that literally: I don’t know of another player who went from Italy’s semipro league to the majors. It is movie material if he’s any good, maybe even if he’s not. Those are my people but the quality of baseball in Italy is not good.
Johnny O: Yankees seem to develop mid draft and int’l players well (#woo) but their first round picks have been questionable among the consensus and also aren’t panning out (Judge as the outlier in more ways than one). Volpe probably a reach, Siegler, Schmidt, Rutherford, Holder, Kaprielian, Clarkin. If Yanks are good at development, why are the missing on so many 1st round picks?
Keith Law: They are good at development, and they’ve had some very successful draft picks after the first round. Perhaps their process up top is different? Many teams approach their first picks a bit differently, and the Yankees often draft late in the round, where the types of high-upside players they value (they’re not looking for soft regulars – they want stars, or guys they think they can trade for stars) are either gone or carry some high risk.
Jeff: Stranger Things S3 thoughts?
Keith Law: Never seen the show. I need to finish Good Omens this weekend.
Keith Law: Well I never even got to announce this on Twitter – sorry, I feel bad about that – but I jumped right into it and forgot to post the tweet. Thanks to you diehards who saw this on my Facebook page or just checked the dish since it’s Thursday! I’m going to wrap this up before I pass out. I believe I will be back to chat again the next two Thursdays before taking a week off (Gen Con!). Enjoy your weekends and the return of baseball tonight.