My review of the digital version of the board game Evolution is up at Ars Technica, and my review of the Kennerspiel des Jahres-winning game The Quacks of Quedlinburg is up at Paste.
Keith Law: Nature is a language – can’t you read? Klawchat.
Keith Law: (There’s your Obscure Music Quote.)
Arnold: Jays GM Ross Atkins says Vlad Jr. is not ready for the majors. He’s just trying to justify keeping him from being a Super 2 arbitration player right? He can’t be that stupid?
Keith Law: He’s not stupid, but he is too voluble. The less said, the better. Now, he’s denigrated his own player and insulted the intelligence of the fan base, to no benefit. They’re holding Vlad down to delay free agency (not Super 2 – I can’t imagine he’s in AAA *that* long), but can’t say so, so just say as little as possible.
TjF: If you were determined to get a deal done with Bryce and you felt like you had to do shorter term at high value (read: the Dodgers), would you be willing to give a 2 year opt out? Put another way – is it worth losing the pick to pay Bryce 40mm for 2 years?
Keith Law: Interesting idea, although I’d probably want to push the opt out at least one year further out, because he’s had some injury history, and I’d rather roll the dice on 2 healthy years in 3 than 2 in 2.
TjF: Is it me or does Vlad Jr look like he packed on a few extra this winter? I’m not judging, just seems like DH is going to happen sooner rather than later
Keith Law: I thought he looked as heavy as he did in the AFL, which would also point to a DH future.
Kid Koala: Your game reviews and thoughts on physical games are one of the reasons I love coming here. Just wondering if you’ve ever played Fortnite and what you think of it. Also about to be a parent and wonder about how to introduce screen games to a child. Any advice?
Keith Law: Glad you enjoy those reviews – I have not played Fortnite.
Jackson (Oakland, CA): Keith, the Cardinals advised Dakota Hudson that he should stretch out as a starter. Can you share what you believe he’ll need to work on to be effective in that role? Or would be be best suited for the bullpen, moving forward?
Keith Law: Between arm issues and lack of a good second pitch beyond the cutter, he seems better suited to the bullpen.
Oscar Madisbum: Judging from what you’e seen over the years, is it better for a team to use all your IFA money to sign one presumed 50+ player like Jasson Dominguez (supposedly going to the Yankees) or to spread the money around given how young these guys are? Thanks
Keith Law: I’d spread the money around. I haven’t seen Dominguez, but I’ve heard he’s the best player in the class but carries substantial risk factors.
Chris (Willow Spring, NC): Hi Keith – First of all, I love your minor league content, trade analysis, etc. it is the primary reason for my ESPN Insider subscription. Of the top Braves pitching prospects on the cusp of the majors, would any be best suited to a bullpen role?
Keith Law: I think any could go to the pen to develop/limit innings, but I’m not sure any would be better suited to relief than starting among the top tier. Maybe Soroka if he just can’t stay healthy in the rotation but it’s too soon for that.
Keith Law: FYI, this chat is brought to you by Trader Joe’s 73% Belgian Dark Chocolate Non-Pareils, by which I mean I bought them and am eating them while I chat.
Gavin: Regarding a nation minimum wage….do politicians really think a uniform national rate is practical? Do they not realize that it costs a lot more to live in San Francisco than it does in Rapid City? Shouldn’t this issue be one that is decided on a local level, where governments can determine a rate that meshes with the local cost of living? If the federal government is going to establish one national rate to get people in major cities to a living wage for menial work, I am moving to a small midwestern town to cook burgers at McD’s for $40 an hour.
Keith Law: Sure they realize that. Has anyone proposed a national minimum wage of $40/hour? That feels like a straw man. And nothing would stop San Francisco from mandating a higher minimum wage than the federal one. If you want to encourage people to work, it would seem that a higher wage would provide a strong incentive, no?
Tristan: Is Chris Paddack the Padres’ best starter at the end of 2019? Or do you think Lucchesi can get to another level with two pitches?
Keith Law: Paddack as the best starter in their rotation by 9/30? Sure, I’ll buy that. Don’t think Lucchesi has another level.
Nate in Seattle: Klaw, wondering your take on Marwin’s infield defense, which UZR doesn’t like. If he played 2b for a full season, would it rate as average or above average?
Keith Law: I’ll guess average but with the strong caveat that I can’t remember the last time I really watched him play 2b.
Keith Law: Or anywhere but the outfield, really.
Tristan: So it looks like Scott Kingery will start the season without a set position again. Do you think the Phils are messing with his potential by moving him around so much?
Keith Law: Yes, not a fan of doing that to young players.
TjF: Don’t want to discriminate guys based on size and handedness, but is someone really going to burn a top 5 draft pick on a 6 foot R/R first baseman?
Keith Law: Vaughn? His performance last year – against weak Pac 12 pitching – was remarkable, enough that I’m consistently hearing he’s a top 5 pick right now.
E-Rod: He might never be a 200 IP guy, but could Eduardo Rodriguez still develop into a #1 or #2 in your view? Still a lot of positives in the profile, he’s still young, and his arm’s never been hurt (even though the lower body has). Feels like he’s sometimes the forgotten man in that BoSox rotation…
Keith Law: Always been a fan. Must stay healthy, still hoping he’ll find a good enough slider to give him that missing element.
Aaron C.: People *very seriously* replying to you that the NFL uses “N/8” for ease of comparative measurement (re: Kyler Murray) makes me sad for, like, humanity.
Keith Law: If you can’t compare 3/8 and 1/2 in your head, how do you manage to get out of the house without garroting yourself on your own shoelaces?
Aaron C.: When you scout Arizona in the spring, do you (a) hit up all 15(?) camps; (b) only scout pre-determined list of players; (c) select the team/players based on good restaurant proximity?
Keith Law: Target players. Plenty of time to get from an afternoon game to a good restaurant.
Keith Law: BTW, Roland’s Market in Phoenix closed, rather suddenly, last week. Just some news for folks headed out there who might have wanted to visit based on my recommendations. It’s going to become a larger, second location of Pane Bianco.
Matt: If someone like Ben Shapiro or Candace Owens ever engaged you on a retweet or a comment you made regarding one of their posts or ‘thoughts’, would you engage them? With that in mind… has that ever happened to you?
Keith Law: It hasn’t, but the main reason I might demur would be the volume of replies I’d get from their adherents. I do use Twitter to communicate with all of you – well, some of you – and that might make it unusable.
Moe Mentum: Rank the following six retired 2nd basemen (primarily) in terms of their worthiness for Cooperstown: Bobby Grich, Jeff Kent, Willie Randolph, Chase Utley, Lou Whitaker, Frank White.
Keith Law: Whitaker, Grich, Utley, Randolph, Kent, White.
Moe Mentum: College tuition payments are an investment rather than an expense, right? But how should we measure the return on our investment? It’s not just starting salary upon graduation, but how else should (can?) we quantify the benefits, especially compared to other schools?
Keith Law: Are they an investment? I’m not sure the tuition for four years at a private university has a good enough ROI to quality. The tuition for the same degree at a public university might be the investment; the marginal cost of a typical private university would be an expense.
David: What is your opinion on the Francona’s son vs Kapler issue?
Keith Law: That is a personal matter and I don’t see how or why I would get involved.
Jesse B: How good of hitter was Michael Lorenzen coming out of college?
Keith Law: Not good at all.
John: Thoughts on Miles Mikolas extension?
Keith Law: Could be great if 2018 was real. Surprising commitment based on one year of performance, although his underlying numbers were all pretty positive.
Robert: Adley feels like a pretty solid #1 talent. Better than recent years but perhaps not generational. How do you think he stacks up talent wise to recent 1s?
Keith Law: I’ll see him in a few weeks, but I feel like he’s below the last couple of 1-1 picks.
Aaron C.: Previously, you’ve stated you’re “in” on Matt Chapman and “out” on Franklin Barreto from a growth/development standpoint. Standing pat on Matt Olson? Is this kind of…all there is? (Which is fine…I guess.)
Keith Law: He’s fine. Would be surprised if there’s more bat there, and I think his glove isn’t quite as good as his reputation.
Robert: Do you have any hope Quantril will see his stuff return? What if he ditched the breaker and became similar to Paddack if less command. Could he start?
Keith Law: Needs more stuff, period. Nothing like Paddack, unfortunately.
Jeremiah: Hey Keith…love your work. Where do you think the Padres start Tatis jr this year…double aa or triple aaa? Thx
Keith Law: Triple-A. Already has more than 4 months at AA.
JT: *Last year* was the delay in Vladdy’s service time. This year is cruel and unusual.
Keith Law: Agreed. He should have been up in May or at worst June. I said on the BBTN podcast today that if MLB had an incentive for noncontending teams to win now – such as better draft position, more international money, or increased revenue sharing – he would have been up.
DaveAlden53: In looking at prospect listings from various sources, there seems to be more variation between than in past years. I’m not going to ask why you’re higher or lower on particular players. (I’m married so don’t need any more snark.) But will instead ask whether you think increased data (launch angle, exit velo, spin rate), new focus on mechanical changes (DriveLine, etc.), and evolving analytical tools (DRC+, etc.) is causing a divergence of opinions.
Keith Law: Maybe? I use what the teams use, to the extent that I’m able. Never heard a team mention DRC+, for example, but spin rate, exit velo, extension come up quite often.
Robert: How far behind is Luis Campusano from a guy like Melendez?
Keith Law: I think I’d have Campusano ahead of Melendez. Did I rank them the other way somewhere?
Josh: Do you think the A’s will offer Kyler Murray an MLB contract over and above what he would get in the NFL Draft, like Rosenthal suggested? Seems like all of Murray’s actions have provided great leverage, but at the end of the day the money talks. If you offered him $35mm over 7 years, he’d bank that before theoretically hitting arbitration (4 option years and 3 pre-arb provided the CBA remains largely the same).
Keith Law: If I’m the A’s I just walk away. He’s not interested in baseball. Don’t throw good money after bad.
Jen Carroll: Keith – have you followed the rather precipitous fall of Mike Isabella’s empire? The Post did a pretty lurid look at his gross behavior that should be of no surprise to anyone who watched him on Top Chef (“no offense, but a girl shouldn’t beat me!”, even if she’s freakin’ Eric Ripert’s Chef de Cuisine, you tool?). But even with all that, I’m a little shocked at how quickly it all came tumbling down.
Keith Law: He just came to mind the other day when I saw a photo of some other past TC contestants – he’s completely vanished. Well-earned, though. So much toxic behavior in restaurant kitchens, likely more revelations to come.
Ken : when you worked for the BJays – did you and did you enjoy living in Toronto?
Keith Law: I never lived there, but spent a lot of time there and loved the city. Had moving cross-border been easier I would happily have moved.
Gabe: To be a major league regular, what type of line do you think Bobby Dalbec will need to produce? Will a 220/330/450 line get it done?
Keith Law: Don’t think that he gets there. That’s a very rosy OBP scenario.
TK: Another good reason you left Arizona: lawmakers last week advanced not one, not two but THREE bills that would make it easier to get vaccine exemptions and would require doctors to provide information on “potential harms” of vaccines … Ugh.
Keith Law: The population isn’t that insane, but the legislature is.
An angry Mets fan: Given that the two biggest contracts given out this offseason (Arenado and Machado) came from franchises that wouldn’t be considered financial juggernauts, can we start replacing “Team X can’t afford this player” with “Team X doesn’t want to afford this player”?
Keith Law: We should. Too many writers carrying water for owners, though.
Alex: Deranged Braves fan with a question that isn’t about the Braves. In my view, would it make strategic sense for the players union to negotiate with owners about the share of revenue that goes to players?
Keith Law: Yes, I feel like this is inevitable. I think it’s worked in the NBA, no? At least for sustained labor peace and a positive relationship between players and the league?
barbeach: Klaw: Thanks so much for the chat. Luke Voit or Greg Bird? Could Voit be for real?
Keith Law: I’d go with an outside option for 1b.
addoeh: I was pleasantly surprised to see Quinn Priester in your initial top 30 draft prospects ranking. How big of a disadvantage does he have given his season starts much later than prospects in warmer climates?
Keith Law: He’ll do fine – Kelenic went 6th, from the same general area, and with pitchers it’s even easier because you can do a relatively complete evaluation off one start, seeing stuff, size, mechanics, command, athleticism in one shot.
quack quack: Duck legs. Where do you get them? I can get whole duck, but I have to special order leg quarters and pay an arm and (ha ha) a leg for them, $14/lb. It’s cheaper to buy whole duck and cut it up, so why not just braise the breast quarters too as long as you’re at it?
Keith Law: Whole Foods has them intermittently or can order them. They freeze well, too.
Todd Boss: Harper Harper Harper! How relieved are you going to be when he finally signs and we can move on from a narrative perspective?
Keith Law: I’ve certainly had enough of this as a general story and of Philly writers/radio people taking cheap shots at Harper for (checks notes) letting his agent handle negotiations.
Sam: If the first regular season game is on March 20th, does that mark the start of the year for everyone, or just those teams? Asking so I know when Guerrero and Jimenez will magically stop needing minor league seasoning.
Keith Law: Just those teams.
Randall Stephens: How worried should I be about Kershaw? Can his FB get back to 93-94?
Keith Law: I think he can succeed averaging 90 mph, but I’m more concerned that his arm is sore. Seems like he’s never come up with a complaint about arm soreness.
Nick: Do you think Harper will take less to go to the West Coast? And how bad would it be if the Phillies were outbid?
Keith Law: No, I think he’ll take the most lucrative offer, period.
Beetlejuice: Hello Keith. Draft class looks pretty rough on the college pitching side – any guys you think have late life to jump into the top 5?
Keith Law: Right now, no.
Stanley: He just turned 18 a few months ago. Does Luis Garcia (PHI) have enough projection to get to 50 power?
Keith Law: Probably.
Mike: You’ve probably answered this at one point, but have you seen Ex Machina? Finally watched it for first time last night and it’s the best sci-fi film I’ve seen in awhile.
Keith Law: Yep, review is somewhere on this site. “I’m gonna tear up the fuckin’ dance floor” is one of the best lines/scenes of the decade.
Dave: In your organizational write-up, you noted that Detroit hadn’t gotten production from its international signings– is that because of poor scouting, not putting enough resources into either scouting or signing players, bad luck… or something else?
Keith Law: I don’t know what their investment in the region has been, but they haven’t produced players. They’ve had few big-dollar signings, though.
James: Will you have a chance to get out to San Diego to see Spencer Jones and/or Derek Diamond?
Keith Law: Right now, neither is good enough for me to make the trip.
Kevin : Are many players still older than their listed ages (cough:Pujols:cough) or is that becoming a thing of the past?
Keith Law: I still hear of those from time to time. Mostly players from Cuba now, rather than players from the DR, which was most common pre-9/11 and has since become almost nonexistent.
Mason: Who do you think is starting in center field for the Reds on opening day?
Keith Law: Why not Senzel? Who’s the better option?
Jay: Any remarks on Paddack’s ST outing, particularly on fastball location or new curveball shape he’s been working on?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. One brief ST outing when players are still getting into game shape tells us little to nothing.
CJ: Are you reporting to spring training in the best shape of your career?
Keith Law: Definitely not.
Jonny: Mount Rushmore of favorite movies ever?
Keith Law: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Amelie. North by Northwest. Double Indemnity. Ugh, so many I have to leave out – Charade, To Catch a Thief, WALL-E … didn’t mention any musicals … The Maltese Falcon, Strangers on a Train, The Apartment … I could go on for a while.
Jim: Do teams place any personnel decisions on spring training performance or are those decisions already made in advance?
Keith Law: I think it still happens more than it should. ST should be for making sure everyone is healthy and ready to go, but less for new evaluations unless there is a tangible, physical explanation.
Matt: I was reading your foreign language learning strategy and in regards to the flashcards, would you still use the physical cards or do you know of a good online program or app that you would use now?
Keith Law: I’ve tried some apps and none has really worked for me.
Jay: Tatis callup on May 1 sound about right to you? Or more seasoning
Keith Law: He’s played less than a full season of games above low-A. I don’t know how ready he is right now – he might be so good it doesn’t matter, but I am not banging the drum for him as I am for Vlad Jr. or Eloy.
Mark: Should the Nats offer Rendon the same contract extension that Arenado just got? I’d be more heartbroken if he left than Harper honestly.
Keith Law: Yes.
Mike: Klaw, thanks for your great work. I’m looking for restaurant recommendations for Charlotte. My wife loves chain restaurants, so I want her to try something that perhaps you can recommend.
Keith Law: I have spent very little time there, so I’m sorry but I don’t have any.
AES: I can’t read the rankings because ESPN+ isn’t available to dirty foreigners. So I’m asking, it seems the hosiery trade worked out perfect for the Crimson, as Sale has been great, flags fly forever, but how much hav e koepech/moncada dropped?
Keith Law: If you sign up through a VPN and choose digital delivery, you should be able to subscribe. Moncada is no longer eligible, and Kopech only dropped because he got hurt.
Jack: In your opinion, is this offseason a disaster for the Phillies if they dont get Harper?
Keith Law: No, but it’ll be a bad winter.
John: Plan on ever going to Morgantown, WV to see Manoah or any other guys?
Keith Law: More likely I’ll get him on the road. That’s not easy to get to from here.
Mike: Did you have a chance to watch Kikuchi pitch? If so, any takeaways?
Keith Law: I’ll try to see him live, not on tv.
Beetlejuice: With the service time manipulation in the news – can you point to any players that weren’t ready in one facet and might have benefited significantly from another 2-3 months to refine that one skill (so they wouldn’t have to learn on the job in the majors)? Wouldn’t you say that is a legitimate reason to hold off on promoting a high level prospect? (especially if the player is young/hasn’t had many reps in the minors)
Keith Law: Jose Guillen comes to mind. Jumped to the majors at 19, never progressed much after that.
Greg: Hey, Keith. What do you think is the biggest reason that a large percentage of US citizens don’t seem to care/realize that the president is implicated in many, many crimes? Crimes that would be the hugest scandal in the world for any previous president. Is it a lack of knowledge? Tribalism run amok? Or the gradual normalization and slow trickle of all the crimes just makes everybody shrug. Rick Santorum actually defended Trump’s constant lying about Russia by saying it wasn’t surprising because Trump lies about everything.
Keith Law: Tribalism run amok is a good way to phrase it. Many people do not care about issues beyond those of their religion, such as trying to ban abortion, or protecting their own race.
Teddy Ballgame: Best pizza around Scottsdale, go. I’m there for two days in early March.
Keith Law: Bianco, Pomo, cibo, Craft 64. Apparently I need to try Myke’s pizza truck, too.
Sean: Where do you stand on intangible traits? Some are clearly just voo doo (like clutchiness), while some might be real but just impossible to quantify and therefore shouldn’t be included in contract negotiations? Can you give examples of some of the latter?
Keith Law: If they exist enough for us to identify them, they’re probably not intangible. Work ethic would be one. “Desire” gets a little wonky. Good in the clubhouse is mostly bullshit.
Jon: Nolan Arenado was hardly a league average player with a .772 OPS away from Coors last season. Obviously a different story in Denver. That being said, what are your thoughts on the contract? Too rich for my blood at zero fault to arenado. Go get your money!
Keith Law: Great for the player. It’s not fair to just look at a Rockies player’s road splits, though – if you put Arenado at sea level he wouldn’t post that road stat line. But I don’t think I’d want him at that salary level into his 30s.
Dan: Hi Keith, do you think Miles Mikolas and Shane Bieber can repeat their success from last year? St Louis obviously believes in Mikolas.
Keith Law: Bieber had a 4.55 ERA and will probably be more homer-prone going forward.
Evan: Ke’Bryan Hayes a 25 HR guy if the MLB ball doesn’t change?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that.
Joel: Are you buying Moniak’s second half? Are the tools still there to be a first division regular?
Keith Law: I’m not buying that.
Deke: What do you think of Joe Sheehan’s argument that the pace of play stuff is almost entirely borne of writers wanting to go home sooner, and the industry’s rising revenues prove that there’s not really a problem?
Keith Law: Partial agreement, partial disagreement. I do think there is a pace of play issue, but it’s 90% about commercials, not this other crap (although I’d like to see someone nail hitters’ feet in the batter’s box). Rising revenues do show that the sport is healthy, but revenues have risen faster than fan interest (such as the total # of people interested in the sport).
Brett: Do you feel like a lot of the hype or mystique that usually begins a new season has been lessened or tainted by greedy ownership and the labor strife? In my small group of Baseball friends, I can’t remember a time they were less excited for a new season.
Keith Law: Yes.
Cartoons Plural : Wander Franco starts 2019 in Bowling Green. Where do you expect him to finish the year at?
Keith Law: Port Charlotte.
Kevin : Was you (still are) a fan on early 90’s grunge/alternative?
Keith Law: Yep.
War biscuit : What order do you prefer these college SS: Holland, Stott, Shewmake and Davidson
Keith Law: I just ranked them all on Tuesday.
The Decider: Are you doing a breakout players for 2019 column?
Keith Law: Yes.
Kevin : Seems like Democrats should talk about farm bailouts being actual socialism as opposed to healthcare?
Keith Law: The right’s messaging on “socialism” has been far too effective, because most Americans don’t know what socialism means – really, I’d guess 60-70% could not correctly define the term – and thus saying “we’re not socialists!” isn’t very useful. The left needs better messaging on this: these are policies that will do X, Y, and Z *for you*.
Nathan: I LOVE my Anova but I feel like it’s steak after steak after steak with maybe a chicken thrown in once in a while. Any good ways to mix it up or just use it for what it’s good at? Also, do you vacuum seal bags, use ziplocks, etc.?
Keith Law: Vacuum seal. I don’t eat steak so I use mine for chicken thighs, duck legs, occasionally pork chops, even some vegetables that require a long cooking time like beets.
addoeh: For young pitchers where you see their long term future is as a reliever, when should the team move him to reliever? Is it when he is major league ready? At what point should they stop thinking that there could be a small chance to be a starter?
Keith Law: I think performance will usually tell you.
Keith Law: Or health. If a guy starts breaking down you’d rather move him sooner rather than later.
John: What did you eat at Xochi? Sorry if you’ve posted that somewhere and I missed it.
Keith Law: The crispy duck and some divine chocolate thing (river and rocks, something like that). To die for.
Mark: You’ve probably tackled this before but once more for idiots in the back like me… Why shouldn’t teams behave exactly like the Blue Jays are with Vlad? It just seems like good business given the parameters that exist right now. Baseball writers will wring their hands but I don’t think the teams give a damn about that. I suppose you run the risk of pissing the player off, but 7 years is a long time and feelings can (and probably do) change in that period of time. I agree that the current system is idiotic, but I cant really fault teams for doing what they think is the best business decision, and in most cases, locking in a top young player for an extra year seems like a sound business decision given the squishiness of the downsides.
Keith Law: My main baseball problem with this is the idea that you can accurately predict 1) what the player will be like 7 years from now 2) what your team will be like 7 years from now and 3) what the rules will be like 7 years from now.
Keith Law: Plus, what if the Jays had called Vlad up in June, and he’d hit like Mike Trout for three-plus months? Maybe they like their projections for 2019 more and decide to add to the team rather than subtracting? Maybe more fans show up, or buy season tickets, so there’s more cash in the till going forward? The blanket assumption that holding the player down will be, unequivocally, a positive for the team does not hold water for me.
Paul: I feel like that guy disproved his own point. If he moved because of a similar wage in a low COLA area, then cities would be forced to pay a living wage to keep their residents. Thurs showing a benefit of a Federally mandated minimum wage.
Keith Law: Fair point. We tried to pass one in Delaware a year ago, to $11, and it failed by something like two votes, so I’m planning to work to unseat my Senator, who voted against it.
Scott: Are you getting the new Castles of Burgundy app?
Keith Law: Is it out yet? I will when it’s available.
Craig R.: Keith, early MLB Draft question. Any specific HS player that might have the most helium or chance to jump up come June?
Keith Law: I just ranked a top 30 the other day; if I like a player the way you’re described, he’s ranked that way on the list.
Mike: Loved your oscar podcast, and hoping there is a regular Klaw podcast sometime in the future. Do you have any podcasts (besides G & L) that you listen to regularly?
Keith Law: thanks! I listen to Hidden Brain, Crimetown, Hugh Acheson Stirs the Pot (been *really* enjoying that lately), BBC’s The Inquiry.
Zach: Isn’t it “radical” that AOC was the most rational speaker at the hearing yesterday? Pun intended!
Keith Law: The young women reps were way more prepared and presented better than the majority of the men. Amazing what a little diversity will do for any group.
Robby: As a prospect enthusiast, who is the top Midwest draft prospect that I should go out and see when the snow melts?
Keith Law: I think Misner was the top midwest guy on my list the other day, unless you count Texas as Midwest (I do not).
Jeff: If you had to pick one guy from the Dbacks that has the highest star potential in the minors, who is it? Thomas? Chisolm?
Keith Law: Chisholm now, only real competition for that is Robinson.
Tim: Will Moncada be a horror show at 3B?
Keith Law: I saw him play it in the AFL and I thought he was adequate. Not average, but decent enough to think he might stay there.
Joe: Everyone makes fun of the “best shape of his life” reports every spring…but Cubs Twitter made a good point when David Bote came into camp in great shape. As a lower draft pick who was never a top prospect, this is probably his first offseason where he has been able to concentrate on baseball instead of saving up money for the season. Not paying minor leaguers is so counterproductive.
Keith Law: I like your point although I don’t know that this makes Bote’s projections any different.
Joshue: It’s unfair to think Hudson Potts has to move off 3B now, right? Is he the most obvious trade candidate for SD?
Keith Law: I wrote in my Machado reaction piece that he was trade bait.
Keith Law: I don’t see him profiling as a regular at another position, so dealing him is the best use of his value.
Nick: A thought I had on the whole question of service time manipulation and the depressed FA market…what if MLB decided that teams who didn’t win at least x games for y consecutive seasons, with a combination of low payroll commitment, saw a dip in their share of the league revenue. Like, a team wins fewer than 75 games for 3 years a never cracks the top 22 in league payroll during that times sees their share of the revenue drop from 1/30 to 1/45 or 1/60? Would this provide enough incentive for teams to sing more middle class FAs who will help them be competitive?
Keith Law: Yes – I’d like to see revenue sharing tied to wins. I’ve come around on changing some of these fundamental assumptions about the game, because teams have stopped distributing as much revenue to the players, and that’s untenable both as a practical matter and, to me, as a philosophical issue.
Joel: Which Luis Garcia would you rather have?
Keith Law: The one who made my top 100, of course.
Brian: To address the earlier question on a $40 minimum wage…wouldn’t people deciding to move from San Fran to more rural areas be an overall positive outcome for the country?
Keith Law: Debatable. We may not be at the ideal equilibrium, but getting more people into cities, using public transport & ditching cars, would have positive externalities.
Keith Law: Hey, it looks like Harper might have signed with the Phillies after all. That’s a lot of full diapers over nothing.
Tim: Will we see Madrigal in the show this year?
Keith Law: I would be very surprised.
Keith Law: They didn’t call up Eloy when he was ready last year. Madrigal would be barely a year out of college.
Jesus: Are you even willing to accept that there are plenty arguments that The Green Book was a very good movie? Or do you simply decide anyone who enjoyed it is wrong because you say so?
Keith Law: That would be the loaded question fallacy, “Jesus.” Kindly take the door on your left.
JD: Pretty sure you’ve answered this before, but what board games would you introduce to a ~6-year-old?
Keith Law: That’s one I’m happy to answer regularly – Ticket to Ride First Journey is perfect. I’m told the kids’ versions of Catan and Carcassonne are also fun. You can play One Night Ultimate Werewolf with kids that young too. My niece is 6 and really likes Jaipur now, which is great if a bit surprising because of the foresight required to play it. (She’s bright, though.) I think the base Dominion game could work if you’re selective about the cards you choose for the table.
Edgar: Have you seen Josh Jung? My goodness that is a smooth swing.
Keith Law: Only video. He’ll be a tough get but I will try.
David: Hi Keith. My fellow Cards fans keep suggesting Flaherty is on the same level as Buehler. I disagree – but is it close?
Keith Law: No, not really close, but Flaherty is really damn good (and, cough, I regularly ranked him on my top 100 too).
Guest: Despite the horror show that was most of the main category winners, I actually thought the Oscars were better w no host. Either give me the SNL troika as hosts for everything or go hostless, I say.
Keith Law: Agreed. I thought the show itself was mostly very entertaining, and some of the presenters were great (McCarthy/Henry, Mulaney/Awkwafina). Grierson and Leitch commented on their podcast that if Roma had won Best Picture, everyone would be talking about how great the telecast was.
justin: Are you still a believer in Arcia?
Keith Law: Yep. Still young, very very talented.
Paul: Hey Keith – sounds like UGA has a couple stud pitchers for the 2020 draft. Excited to get back to Athens??
Keith Law: Hancock maybe, Wilcox for ’21. I think I’ll end up there this year to see a road team and get a look at Schunk.
Jay: ESPN subscription renewal coming soon. Are you able to share any insights on your ongoing status at ESPN (ie. beyond 2019)?
Keith Law: I have no updates – my contract runs through December, and that’s all.
Ira: Why aren’t more players taught multiple positions when being developed in the minors? It would give teams more flexibility and the player would have added value.
Keith Law: I feel like most teams do this already, no? I hear it constantly when making calls for the rankings.
Cartoons Plural : Tyler Glasnow’s pause in his delivery, good or bad thing?
Keith Law: Neither. What may be good for one pitcher may be bad for another.
Brian: I really thought nothing would beat Don Jr as the real life GOB Bluth and then came Matthew Calamari
Keith Law: I so wanted to make a Gene Parmesan joke but Lana Berry beat me to it.
EL: Canadian baseball fan who must know: Who’s the better Naylor? The better Pompey?
Keith Law: The younger, and the younger.
Bill: Can Keon Broxton hit enough to be an everyday CFer?
Keith Law: IMO no. Did it once, for most of a year, that’s it.
JR: Do you bother watching Spring Training games on mlb.tv? I’m guessing only if you know a top prospect is going to be playing?
Keith Law: Because I often can’t see the angles I want I find the experience rather frustrating. And it’s spring training, where the games are (Allen Iverson voice) PRAC-tice.
Andy: I am trying to get into earlier Opeth. They are interesting musically, but I really can’t figure out how to like the harsh singing. While I can understand the music needs the harsh singing, it completely takes me out of the music. How do you compensate for music that’s good, other than cookie monster growling?
Keith Law: I hear you (pun intended). I can tune that out with some artists, like Opeth, less with others, like Obituary, who have long done very interesting stuff on the border of thrash and death metal but whose singer sounds like he’s flossing with a chainsaw.
Zihuatanejo: In a recent spring training game, in all but 3 PAs for the entire game the Dodger hitters swung at the first pitch they saw. Do you think that was: 1) a random thing that happened; 2) a directive from the dugout; or 3) an inside joke between the players?
Keith Law: I’d guess 2, then 3, but not 1.
Robert: Did you drop in to any new restaurants in austin last week?
Keith Law: Better Half, Micklethwait, Backspace, Cane Rosso (been to the Dallas one).
JD: Doesn’t keeping somebody down for service time reasons violate the CBA? I thought that was why management always pretends it’s for other reasons, and you occasionally get grievances. So it’s not just “the best business decision,” it’s against the rules
Keith Law: It does. But you can’t prove it if they don’t admit it.
PULLEY: Regarding Vlad Jr and the BS service time manipulation… why doesnt a player like him or kris Bryant in 2015, when it’s obvious they are being held down for manipulation purposes only come out and say something like “if I am sent down I will not negotiate any extension in the future and will fully explore free agency no matter what.”
Keith Law: Idle threat.
Zach: Minimum Wage – Federal steps in because if not Texas and Mississippi would be paying $2.50 an hour.
Keith Law: You think they’d pay that much?
Dave: I was reading Fangraphs Top Prospects list (I know you think highly of them and work with them at times) and in their writeup of Andres Gimenez (on which they had him ranked much higher than you) they mention that ppl may have gotten a different impression on him based on when they saw him. They said he looked pretty blah in the AFL but very possibily couldve been due to fatigue from a long season. I know that you saw him in person at the AFL and came away relatively “meh” on his hitting. Did you factor in the potential fatigue aspect at that point or do you feel that that may be overblown.
Keith Law: I do factor that in, but 1) that’s not the only time I saw him and 2) I ask a *lot* of people before doing those rankings.
Brian: Dylan Cozens has impressed people in Phillies camp. Does a guy like that with massive tools and massive holes always have a chance to break out, or once he hits a certain age/stage of development do the holes become very unlikely to be closed enough to take advantage of the tools?
Keith Law: One massive tool, the power, that’s it. Not a good player, just a guy with raw power.
Tyler: Today Liberty Media showed Braves’ revenue surged to $442M for 2018. Their 2019 payroll is currently lower than last year after winning the NL East. What is wrong with this picture?
Keith Law: Well, an hour ago, you might have argued they were still favorites or close to it to win the division. Now…
Jeremy: No question, thanks for the chats. Also, another newer pizza place in Phoenix that is fantastic is BASE pizza on Lincoln.
Keith Law: Adds to the list. Taking suggestions, of course.
Phillies Prospects: How frustrating is it when people repost your work that was behind the ESPN paywall? Where Siani or Newell close to the top 30?
Keith Law: Not just frustrating – it’s illegal. If you see it, say something, to me or to the site’s operators. Neither was close but I will certainly see both as they play within an hour of me. Also the HS pitcher near Philly whose name escapes me right now.
War biscuit : I believe Wilcox is a draft eligible sophomore so he may be eligible for 2020
Keith Law: Didn’t realize that, so much the better if he is.
Nat: What’s your opinion of Harper getting $330 mil over 13 with no opt-outs according to Passan?
Keith Law: Love it.
Keith Law: Phillies are the preseason favorites for the division now. Granted, that doesn’t mean much when the games start, but still, good deal.
Cartoons Plural : Saw Detroit ranked as a Top 10 farm, mainly because of apparently lots of MLB ready talent? Is it quantity or quality?
Keith Law: They’re not a top 10 farm.
Pierre: Phillis pitching sucks after Nola.
Keith Law: Good taek.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Might do a Periscope tomorrow now that we have more news to discuss, but I’ll wrap this one up here. Thank you as always for reading, and for all of your questions. I’ll write something up on Harper this afternoon. Enjoy your weekends.