My latest Insider post has my scouting notes on some Yankees, Orioles, and Pirates prospects, plus thoughts on an umpshow I witnessed in Trenton on Tuesday.
Keith Law: People give your ears, so I be sublime. It’s Klawchat.
addoeh: Remember how excited you were as a kid when you opened a pack of baseball cards and saw a Doug Harvey or an Eric Gregg in there?
Keith Law: I have a complete set from 1985. I think it’s worth like three or four dollars now.
Andrew: So Jayson Werth said this, in his diatribe about how “nerds” are killing baseball: “… I think it’s killing the game. It’s to the point where just put computers out there. Just put laptops and what have you, just put them out there and let them play. We don’t even need to go out there anymore. It’s a joke.” Do people really misunderstand the purpose of analyzing data to this degree? Isn’t this the baseball equivalent of science-deniers discrediting evolution because “I’ve never seen a monkey turn into a human”?
Keith Law: I knew Werth a little in Toronto and was kind of shocked to see him go full denialist like that. He was one of the friendliest players to me at a time when I was quite an oddball due to my role (and probably due to my personality). I can only assume he’s just frustrated that his career ended before he was ready … but he made a lot of money because those same ‘nerds’ he decried pointed out how valuable he really was.
Meeeeeee: Hey, Keith… Given that Bellinger was never a huge power prospect in the minors, is it likely that his 2017 HR total was an aberration and that this year’s output is more likely to be what he produces in the future (with more batting average)?
Keith Law: Bellinger was always a huge power prospect.
Zach: Is Lucas Sims similar to two of the Reds’ existing former top prospects Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed?
Keith Law: No, I’d put him behind those guys today or if I were trying to rank them all based on where they were as prospects.
Matt: Dark Helmet is tweeting about “Space Force all the way!” Not like there’s anything important to tackle like climate change, fires in California, Flint, refugees, etc.
Keith Law: I can only assume the Gorilla Channel aired a marathon of V yesterday.
Scott: I will be in Pittsburgh next month (yes, going to PNC as part of trip) and looking for some restaurant recommendations if you have any good ones, thanks.
Keith Law: I haven’t been there in almost ten years. I believe two of my old favorites are still open though – Pamela’s (greasy spoon breakfast place) and Spice Island Tea House.
Rich Bower: Brendan McKay has looked great pitching – does he project more power on the batting side? Thanks as always!
Keith Law: I’ve talked to three scouts who’ve seen him recently. All have him rated very highly as a pitcher and say he should give up hitting just to focus on the mound now. Not that he couldn’t hit but he’s farther behind that way.
RK: I know you expected Royce Lewis to be a CF when he was drafted, have you changed your stance on that or no?
Keith Law: No, not sure why I would. Reports I’ve gotten are that his bat is incredibly advanced, he’s every bit as smart and instinctive on the bases as advertised, but that he’s got a long way to go to be passable at short.
JR: What are your thoughts on Tyler Mahle? He’s been great in some games this year and awful in others?
Keith Law: He’s been extremely homer-prone at home, which is unsurprising from the ballpark but still bad (16 in 52.2 IP!). The part that shocks me is that he’s walked so many guys, and weirdly enough is doing that more on the road (probably a sample-size fluke, but still, why?). He was always a command guy where you hoped the stuff was enough to make him more than a 4/5.
Bren: Do any of the more powerful FO executives like Theo have any kind of decision making power written into their contracts? The Mets desperately need to hire a strong GM/VP, but is there any way they can ensure Jeff Wilpon doesn’t end up undermining them constantly?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I haven’t seen any of those contracts, either. I can imagine that the Cubs know that if Theo were to get undermined by one of the Ricketts’ kids (when they’re not busy propping up the kakistocracy), he’d quit.
Rick Sanchez: What kind of power ceiling do you see for Bo Bichette? He hasn’t produced many homers throughout his minor league career, but I’ve seen his power rated as high as 70.
Keith Law: I don’t know who rated him there – no scout I’ve talked to, certainly. I’ve seen Bichette a ton since HS, and I could see a future 70 hit tool, but with 55 power.
Stan: Have you ever been approached with an opportunity to teach at the university level? You are an Ivy League grad, have worked successfully in a high level industry, are very well written and spoken and, most importantly, can find racism in even the most benign of situations.
Keith Law: I’ve never understood privileged people like you who think there’s value in claiming there isn’t racism in situations where other people believe it exists. If you can’t see the microaggression in, say, publicly questioning whether a Dominican prospect has lied about his age, or why a panel of six members of the same organization from the same time period that excludes all players of color (when that team included current employee Fred McGriff) poses huge problems of representation and signals to people of color that their views aren’t valued, well, maybe sit this one out.
TC: Is there still hope for Rosario becoming an impact player? .273 OBP in 153 career games suggests he has a long way to go.
Keith Law: wow, 153 whole games.
NYTT: What’s the next step in Ian Anderson’s development? Where do you see him settling in when he gets to Atlanta?
Keith Law: Just promoted to AA yesterday. I assume you’re asking his ceiling – I think a #2 starter, maybe more. Heard nothing but great things from his recent outings.
brian: simple rule change — only the crew chief can throw out a player… if crew chief sees player arguing balls and strikes or throwing at a batter – so be it… will at least limit the umpshow!
Keith Law: I think last night’s incidents with Soto and Justin Turner highlights the problem. If Soto gets tossed for calmly pointing out that a call was wrong – you have to see Jerry Layne’s postgame comments, it’s so clear that he values the umpires’ egos over getting the call right I wanted to throw up just reading them – while Turner acts as he did and doesn’t get run, well, we have a pretty serious problem of inconsistency.
Andy E: Hey Keith, I just have to ask why you are such a nerd and love being such a NERD?!?!?!?!
Actually no real question, just wanted to say I love your work.
Keith Law: Thanks. I am a nerd and do love it.
Scott: Luis Garcia continues to rake in High-A at 18 years old. If he finishes out this year in similar fashion, does he have the potential to be a top 50 prospect heading into next year? Or is his ceiling not that high?
Keith Law: He’s certainly a top 100 guy. He’s blown past Antuna, who got 3x the money and was the higher ceiling guy, but whose body has gone totally south on him.
Billy: If the season ended today, who is your NL MVP, and who do you think would actually win?
Keith Law: deGrom. No clue who’d win.
Nick: Have you seen Jake Holmes (Phillies ‘17 11th rounder) this year? Numbers look good and wanted to see if your observations match up.
Keith Law: I haven’t. He’s 20 in short-season.
brian: Your ESPN brother posted an interesting article today that wins on a year to year basis are worthless BUT a good marker for a career review… any thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re not. Ask Bert Blyleven.
A big dumb idiot: Danny Jansen has been raking for 2 seasons now, but I’m unsure of the consensus on his defence. Could you let me know what you’ve heard?
Keith Law: Playable.
John: Royals farm system… Still bad? Terrible? Any names to keep an eye on as potential ‘next wave’ of talent players?
Keith Law: Outside of the 2018 draft, it’s bottom 2 or 3. They added a huge infusion of moderate-ceiling but high-probability talent, which is kind of what they needed most after some high picks used on prep arms haven’t worked out.
James: In the perpetually ongoing battle to shorten game length, why not limit the number of warm-up pitches? This is done quite effectively in Japan, and honestly, while the time difference isn’t going to be significant, it feels like an incredibly low-impact change to make.
Keith Law: The only warm-up pitches that might affect game length are those thrown by relievers when they enter the game. You could argue that those pitchers should be warmed up already. The rest are largely just filling time during ever-longer commercial breaks.
John: I’ve been curious about player development and stolen bases lately. Is there a reason that teams don’t have all their prospects running frequently in the minors? Even for slow guys, but especially the fast ones, it seems like it would help them develop better “baserunning intuition” and perfect skills like picking up pitcher moves and sliding, at no real cost. Can always have them tone it down when they get to MLB.
Keith Law: It hurts the hitters.
G: I enjoyed today’s write-up on prospects, but am mostly interested in your thoughts on Ke’Bryan Hayes. You mention his 3 hard-hit balls–has he made the swing changes necessary for future power?
Keith Law: I have never had a big problem with his swing. He’s just been more of a high-contact guy – and I think the Pirates preach that over power.
Chuck: What do you make of Seattle’s scouting purge? Are those jobs going to be filled?
Keith Law: That report that they let 10 scouts go was wrong. They did let six scouts go, which still isn’t great, but don’t you have to get that number right before reporting it? My understanding is that they’re not reducing their total number of scouts.
tom: Hi Keith. Do you think Chris Paddack becomes a #2 starter? Has he developed a 3rd pitch yet or is this a case of him just dominating the lower minors with 2 pitches? His numbers are unreal!
Keith Law: He doesn’t have an average breaking ball and I think that limits his ceiling, although he’s really good for a two-pitch guy (it’s a 70 CH) and is probably ready for the majors now.
Nick: Why wouldn’t the Indians try to increase Yandy Diaz’ launch angle? With his approach, exit velo, and defense, he seems like a potential star if he doesn’t hit 60% of his balls on the ground.
Keith Law: He’s always hit the ball hard when I’ve seen him. Some guys can’t make that adjustment or don’t want to try.
Kevin w : Why does our country spend so much on defense when we have no border disputes…couldn’t this money be spent on education, healthcare, and programs like social security?
Keith Law: Defense spending is never questioned. If you do, then you hate America.
romorr: There enough J2 talent to justify that Gausman trade if we lose out on Victor Victor? That inclusion of O’Day is awful right? A rebuilding team saving 10 million, at the costs of better prospects, is indefensible.
Keith Law: There’s no justifying it even if you get VVM, because the trade only gave you a ‘portion’ of him. I am assuming ownership ordered Duquette to shave payroll.
tom: I know he’s only 17, but is Wander Franco a guy you see in the majors at 19, like a Juan Soto. What’s his power ceiling?
Keith Law: Yes. 25+ homer guy. I’ll be shocked if he is still on the minors on the day he turns 20, barring injury.
Hungry: I’ll keep trying to get this answered…are there any moral issues with cooking shows? I love to watch them, but also can’t help but feel bad for the all the wasted food that could be used for better purposes than to watch a judge take a few bites for our entertainment.
Keith Law: I don’t know why you keep asking when I’ve declined to answer for … a year? I have no idea what happens to that food. We don’t know if it’s “wasted” or consumed by the crew or donated. It’s an unanswerable question.
Mike: Bryan Reynolds is getting on base at his career normal level, but he is slugging well below his career norm. Do you attribute that to his hamate bone injury at the beginning of the season? Something more? I know you just saw Altoona, do you think he can be an every day player? Thanks!
Keith Law: The hamate doesn’t help but he’s also never shown the same game power in pro ball as he has in BP or in college.
Bryan: What kind of player is Dereck Rodriguez going forward? Is he just a great story or a legit mid rotation guy for the future?
Keith Law: Back end starter. Dude’s been extremely lucky – 4 HR allowed in 73 innings with his flyball rate isn’t going to last.
romorr: DL Hall should finish the year in A+, he is on fire his last 10 or so starts. Has he done enough to sneak into the top 100?
Keith Law: He was mentioned in my midseason prospects update.
John: Is Joe Simpson the worst or The. Worst.
Keith Law: He’s had a bad week. He’s also taken some shots at me over the years, so perhaps I’ll just let his words speak for him.
Nick: Any potential star position players (regardless of risk) in the Phillies system? They have the pitching but I’m skeptical about their position players.
Keith Law: I think Ortiz has a star bat but needs a position. 1B might work.
Joules: Thanks for the chats. What would you be asking for in return for Inciarte?
Keith Law: It’s whatever the market will return. He’s surplus now. They missed their ideal window to deal him.
Frank : Which WAR do you prefer, baseball reference or fangraphs?
Keith Law: I look at both.
Chris: Klaw, who is your leader for AL ROY right now. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s Gleyber easily.
Kevin w : What do the reds need to do this offseason to be competitive in the next few years?
Keith Law: I don’t think they need to do something this offseason, but they need to figure out why their pitching prospects have fared so poorly in the majors or sometimes in AAA; and they need to get more out of Latin American scouting.
bob: Higher upside, Alex Kiralloff or Alex Verdugo?
Keith Law: Verdugo is the better athlete and defender. I feel more optimistic that Kirilloff will hit, though.
Jonathan: Is Nolan Gorman for real? The Cardinals seem to be really aggressive with him
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s aggressive given what he did in the Appy League and his raw power. Challenge him with better pitching; he’ll be better prepared for low-A next spring. Maybe he just had some draft-itis and is over it now that he’s signed.
Dana: Twelve K’s for CC Sabathia last night. How many more seasons does he need to pitch like this to be a HOFer?
Keith Law: He’s on the borderline already. Another two seasons like this would probably strengthen his case among the stat guys who argue for such players, myself included.
Jay: I was at the Nats game last night and was glad I paid to see Greg Gibson miss so many calls. Soto complaining was the culmination of many guys having an issue with Gibson.
Keith Law: Gibson had a horrible night calling balls and strikes. He should be better at his job.
Jerry: I find it interesting in that you expect umpires to put up with most of the abuse directed at them by players, even if the umpires themselves believe they are correct in their calls. Meanwhile, you summarily block anyone on social media with the gall to disagree with your opinions that are not always mainstream. Seems a bit contradictory.
Keith Law: Imagine being so stupid to think that these are equivalent. Being on social media is not my job, or part of my job, or even something ESPN requires of me. I don’t have to tolerate anything on there – and, dumbass, I only block people who are abusive. When people start swearing at me or calling me gay slurs or a see-you-next-tuesday, yeah, I’ll block them. And if Soto actually called Gibson one of those things, then he deserved to be ejected.
tim: Any concerns over Gore’s inconsistency in A ball this season, Keith? He seems to have one lights out start – then struggle. Still see him as a #1 starter?
Keith Law: Yes, I do. He’s 19 and has very little experience in pro ball.
Darnell: Is Peter Alonso’s future a DH? How do you like Andres Gimenez?
Keith Law: I like Gimenez but don’t see an impact bat there. Alonso is probably 60/40 DH/1b for me.
Guest: Now that Senzel is out for the year, do you think the Reds will say “he needs time to rehab” as an excuse to get an extra year of control next year?
Keith Law: Actually giving him three weeks in the minors in April is the right business move. I’m fine with that. I’d love to see him in the majors ASAP, selfishly, but I get it.
John : San Francisco/Palo Alto dinner recommendations?
Keith Law: Cotogna, flour + water, never been to State Bird but I hear it’s amazing.
Adam: What is the ceiling for Brusdar Gaterol? Been great so far this year.
Keith Law: I’ve heard closer/power reliever. Obviously you hope he can start but command isn’t close right now.
ZVN: Keith, you’ve been doing an exceptional job filling in for Buster on the BBT pod. I know you said you’re too lazy to do a pod every day, but would you ever be open to starting your own pod down the road? Doesn’t even have to be all about baseball. You’d definitely have a subscriber here. I’ll hang up and listen
Keith Law: Thank you! I do enjoy my week as guest host each year.
Kevin w : Would monopoly make your top 1000 board games?
Keith Law: Yes assuming I just ranked every game I’ve ever played (which has to be something like 300 by now)
Aaron C.: How would YOU handle Jesus Luzardo? I’ve read elsewhere the A’s will shut him down when he reaches an (post-TJ surgery) innings cap. Would you let him throw his last, say, 12 innings in a couple of starts in Oakland?
Keith Law: I would probably shift him to a long relief sort of role so he can get a cup of coffee in September and help lengthen the big league staff. I do worry about the breaking ball being fringy for the majors, but this is how you find out.
john: Will Daz Cameron have the same power like his Dad?
Keith Law: I doubt that.
Kevin w : Betts the 2nd best player?
Keith Law: For me, yes.
Keith Law: Javy Baez being first, of course.
KC: Do you see the Royals Nicky Lopez as a MLB regular at SS, 2B, or neither.
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a regular at SS, but the bat is probably good enough to play everyday somewhere.
Carlo: Thoughts on Deivi Garcia? Is there significant reliever risk there?
Keith Law: There is, given his size, but I believe he has very good spin rates on the FB and breaking ball, and the results are tremendous. Probably won’t see him till next year when he gets to Trenton.
romorr: What has happen to Cody Sedlock? Heard he was overworked in college.
Keith Law: He was badly overworked in college, and the O’s didn’t help matters after he signed. He’s never been right since then.
Wes: I know he’s far away, but does Vidal Brujan have enough hit tool to project as a big leaguer?
Keith Law: Pure hit tool makes him a big leaguer. Needs something else to profile as a regular.
squeeze bunt: I swing back and forth between thinking the country will be ok, and that everything is falling apart. Are we going to be ok as a country?
Keith Law: Although I am truly not a pessimist by nature, I think we have done enough damage internally that we will never be the same and will be worse off for years if not decades from what Trump and his followers have wrought.
Tommy: Hey Keith, love your chats. Who do you feel has the higher ceiling – Luzardo, Sheffield or Mize? Do you feel all are future #2’s or do you think one is in a seperate tier from the others?
Keith Law: Again, ranked all three guys here in my midseason rankings, with ceilings discussed.
Chris: Is Erik Swanson more of the righty version of Josh Rogers or Montgomery (not in style but in terms of MiL stats vs outlook)?
Keith Law: Yeah, sounds like 6th starter type.
Jon: Keith, do you think parents/Little League coaches will try to start coaching things like incline angle, spin rate or defensive shifts? How long would you think it would take for stuff like this to trickle down so that it could be done knowledgeably?
Keith Law: I think there are absolutely parents and youth coaches doing this crap already. They shouldn’t.
AM: I have a serious question. I’m not bipolar and I’m not depressed. I don’t think I have a mental disorder but there are times where I will randomly think I just want to literally kill myself and 3 seconds later that urge is gone. It doesn’t happen often maybe once every two weeks. Is this something I should be concerned about for my mental health?
Keith Law: Yes. You should absolutely go talk to a doctor about this. I’m happy to help people who reach out with mental health issues, but what you describe is too serious for me to try to tackle as a non-professional.
Denis: Have you heard any reporting on Julio Urias? Is he still capable of being a #2 starter?
Keith Law: Eric Longenhagen has seen him and reported that Urias’ velocity is way down. I said when Urias had the surgery that he was likely done.
John : Thoughts on Bryan Mata? High walk rate at hi-a, but still only 19
Keith Law: Big arm but reliever with that slot/delivery.
Chip: Any update on Victor Victor Victor Victor or whatever his name is?
Keith Law: Still not cleared. Also your prose is too prolix.
Chris: Any thoughts on Jeff McNeil? Still an org guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think I said he was an org guy. I don’t think he’s a significant prospect or a regular.
James: Has that cutter suddenly made Nathan Eovaldi a $12M guy? Is he worth even more than that?
Keith Law: He’s worth more. And it all seems very real.
PHS: If you’re Ross Atkins, do you attempt to trade Donaldson now for any kind of prospect return, or is it better to hold on to him and see what happens this winter? My meaning there is, should they consider a one-year offer at roughly the same salary as this year (as a rotating 3B/1B/DH?
Keith Law: You offer him, and if you don’t like the return, you wait till November and make the QO. There is no reason to hold on to him now if you get a decent offer.
Chris: You may have seen that Bon Appetit just named (the OG) Portland as food city of the year. You may need to come up, even though we are, as you said, above the arctic circle. (it is 86 here rn btw)
Keith Law: I haven’t been there in ages, too, but there’s not a great work reason when the Sea Dogs come near me so often (and they’re light on prospects right now).
Aaron: Seems there are very differing opinions on the strength of the jays farm system. Im surprised to see them ranked top 5 in a couple of rankings. Seems they are top heavy but once bichette and Vlad are promoted they likely are a bottom third system. Thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re not a top five system. That just isn’t credible.
Joe: Has your evaluation of Tyler O’Neill changed after his AAA performance this year?
Keith Law: No.
cm: I know you likely aren’t sure who will be #1 overall next year, but is this an up year (Harper type), down year (Beckham type), or in between year for the #1 overall pick?
Keith Law: Very down year.
brian: Didi Gregorius can’t hit a pitch on the outside part of the plate. Also swings at everything. EVERYTHING. You can get him out by pitching up and away and down and away. He had a great April – then every single pitcher saw the same thing and he hasn’t hit much since. Can the Yankee announcers stop referring to this as a “slump?” It;s not a slump. And Boone batting him 3rd or 4th everyday is just plain pandering to the left/right crowd.
Keith Law: Since May 1st: .246/.297/.397. I didn’t realize his OBP was that bad; he’s still walking a bit so I thought he was at least providing more value there. That’s bottom of the order shit right there.
BMosc: Clarke Schmidt. Projection?
Keith Law: I missed him by a day in Aberdeen; in college, I thought he was a huge injury risk because of the delivery, good to great stuff, real competitor, could throw strikes but would have trouble with command too. He blew out, not helped by misuse at SC, but as far as I know the delivery is the same.
Chris: over/under MLB Justin Dunn starts in 2019: 15 (im taking over w that tenuous mets staff)
Keith Law: I think/hope the over.
Bryce Harper: What do you think I get in free agency this year?
Keith Law: If you finish strongly, the way you’ve hit the last five weeks, you’ll still get a huge deal, some 8-year $200MM+ contract, but I think Machado is going to be the king of this market.
Joseph: Could you compare and contrast Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint?
Keith Law: Very different guys. The only things they have in common is that they’re RH and both pitch for Atlanta. I like both with Touki having the higher ceiling.
E J : Chance that Luis Patino makes your post/pre season top 100 ? How are his off speed pitches developing ?
Keith Law: Slim.
Mike: I know you had Jose Ramirez just outside of your top 100, but he wasnt too highly rated as a prospect by many. Why did so many overlook him?
Keith Law: Little guy who never showed anything remotely close to this kind of power potential.
Brett: Royals owner David Glass has been quoted recently indicating he believes Royals should be contending again by 2020. Was this a comment directed at the GM to avoid a long rebuild or an indication of a lack of awareness of the status of the organization and their talent?
Keith Law: I mean, that’s not going to happen. I can’t tell you what Glass had in mind.
Thom Yorke: When you say “backed up” do you mean regression? In terms of a prospect’s stuff being backed up.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s what the term means.
Ben: Spice Island closed, unfortunately. But try BRGR, Spoon, or Morcilla!
Keith Law: well that sucks. Just shut the city down, then.
Aaron C.: Have you heard what, if any, MLB award vote you’ll have this year? Continuing the rich tradition of NL ROY?
Keith Law: I can only assume so. I don’t necessarily mind, since prospects is my thing, but I also wonder what’s motivating the pigeonholing.
Chris (Chicago): Keith, Mike Bates put out an interesting article the other day about the history of ticket prices in MLB and their potential effect on attendance today. The conclusion was that while baseball is in no sort of financial danger, there is a long-term consequence to the high-cost of tickets (including failing to create new fans). I was just curious about your thoughts on pricing? Is it something about which the league should be concerned enough to do something?
Keith Law: I think MLB teams price tickets rationally, to maximize revenues in the short term. If the league thinks as Mike does, that this hurts the game long term, then they might want to figure out how to subsidize lower-cost tickets in the bleachers or nosebleeds.
Brian: Deivi Grullon was once a prospect. He’s having a big AA year and the splits are fairly even. Is he on the prospect radar at all?
Keith Law: No, he’s terrible. He can really throw, but that’s about it.
Trey: Why the hell does Trump go after LeBron? I actually agree with some of his policies but why oh why does he do the dumbest shit and go after the most popular athlete in the US who is actually very impactful to his community?
Keith Law: I mean … you’re so close, Trey … it’s just … just reach a little bit father…
squeeze bunt: Do you have a way to measure quality of contact of someone in the Arizona league? For example, Xavier Edwards is hitting like 400, but is he legging out infield singles, or hitting solid line drives?
Keith Law: The teams may have some trackman data on that but otherwise you’d want to ask the scouts or coaches at those games. I won’t do any of that till the fall, when the season is over.
Sally: Is Juan Soto better than you imagined? MVP type ceiling?
Keith Law: Of course he is – if I’d imagined he’d do this, he would have been in my top 3 prospects this winter. MVP type ceiling.
Henry: Red Sox have Sale, Bogaerts, Martinez, Porcello, Kimbrel, Betts all becoming free agents in the next 2 seasons. It’s unlikely they sign them all. What do you think they do? Or should do?
Keith Law: You try to sign Betts and Bogaerts, the two youngest and the two position players on the list.
Todd: Thoughts on Yankees Luis Medina, Garrett Whitlock and Devi Garcia?”
Keith Law: Medina has enormous stuff (one scout told me he saw 100 mph, another saw him get knocked around and unable to finish one inning).
Keith Law: He’s got the highest ceiling of those three, but he’s also quite far away. I’ll try to see Whitlock soon but he was an SEC product overmatching younger A-ball hitters. His first AA start (in April) was a disaster.
Rob: Will you be doing a GenCon write-up? What was your favorite new game?
Keith Law: Yes it should go up today or tomorrow at Paste. No spoilers.
Ben: Between Willi Castro & Sergio Alcantra, do the Tigers have an everyday regular shortstop there? I think Wenceel Perez has the most upside, but is a ways off from the bigs.
Keith Law: I’m a big Castro fan. One of him or Alcantara should be a regular there.
Richard: Can Ryan Borucki stick as a back end starter?
Keith Law: Yes.
E J : Is Quantrill struggling due to the lack of development with the breaking ball, the straightness of the fastball, all of the above ? Anything else ?
Keith Law: FB velocity hasn’t held up post-2016, and he doesn’t really get on top of the ball well enough or extend over his front side like he should..
Fred: Nobody can honestly back Urban Meyer at Ohio State, right? I mean how the hell could they value wins more than domestic violence victims? I’ve actually had people tell me that Urban is the victim in the whole thing… WHY? HOW?
Keith Law: Because football. I’ve got people in the queue here trying to argue that he did the right thing (just like Paterno truthers).
Dawg: David Bote, Phillip Ervin and Jeff McNeil all are hitting pretty well in small samples. Any hope that they can become solid regulars?
Keith Law: Bote has the best bat of the three.
Danny: Have you heard anything on Shervyn Newton? Apparently that Kingsport team is stacked
Keith Law: Yep, Dutch kid, signed for just $50K two years ago. Trained in Curacao. Great feel for the game, so I’m not shocked at the plate discipline, but he’s really hitting with some impact. That Kingsport team would be really fun to watch if I could figure out where Kingsport is.
addoeh: Regarding Werth, what FO person told him not to bunt against the shift? Don’t do it all the time but once in a while in the right situations would help.
Keith Law: Right? Wouldn’t any analytics people recommend doing that, if only as a game theory sort of response to the shift?
Gus Johnson: Is there a disconnect in the value of relievers? Good ones command a premium in the trade market but are don’t seem to be as valued in the FA market.
Keith Law: Those trades tend to be in-season and thus tactical moves for September/October.
Chris: Speaking of Wander Franco, can we get a definitive ranking of the Wander Francos?
Keith Law: Well the one in Tampa is a superstar and the others are not.
SeanE: Hi Keith. Not sure you and I would ever agree much in the political arena but just wanted to say I very much enjoy reading all your material, baseball and non baseball, alike. Do you agree however, that the rhetoric from both sides has gotten totally out of hand? What has happened to the days when politicians like Reagan and Tip O’Neill could sit down at the end of the day with a drink despite going to battle over policy issues.
Keith Law: I don’t agree. I think the current administration and the establishment wing of the GOP has adopted so many policies endemic to despotic regimes – the stuff Hannah Arendt documented in The Origins of Totalitarianism – that no rhetoric can condemn them strongly enough. Bothsidesism only makes the problem worse.
Trevor: Ankiel throwing 89 in an exhibition game. Do you take his comeback at 39 seriously? Could he get a ST invite or a minor league contract next year?
Keith Law: I’m absolutely rooting for him.
Keith: With no offense to my second cousin, I tell people I’m named after you. Who are you named for?
Keith Law: Nobody that I’m aware of, although my middle name is from my mother’s father, who died before I was born.
Brett: Not defending the level of defense spending, but maybe the reason for the lack of border disputes is correlated to how much we invest in our defense?
Keith Law: We have two borders and both are with countries with whom we have extensive, inextricable economic links. That might have more to do with it than anything else.
Joe: Hey Keith, thanks again for the chat. Can you settle a question for me? If you had to start a franchise and could pick between Severino or Nola as being your Ace, who would it be?
Keith Law: I feel better about Nola long-term, even though Severino is the better pitcher today (the last six starts notwithstanding).
Xavier: Any shot Vientos or Kelenic starts next season in full-season ball? What do you think of those guys?
Keith Law: I like both and think both start in Columbia.
JP: I LOL’ed at a guy who called you a “virtue signaller” on Twitter last weekend. Funny how that term has developed into a put-down used to “burn” anyone who expresses an interest in equality. At this point, you’re telling on yourself by even using that term aren’t you?
Keith Law: That’s my take. I don’t care if anyone thinks I have or lack “virtue.” I do care about using my platform to do an ounce of fucking good in this world before I lose it.
Matt: Moncada is on track to break the single season K record. Do you think he still lives up to his All-Star potental?
Keith Law: I have been the relative skeptic on him – still ranking him in the top 20, but never buying him as the #1 prospect or even a top ten guy. His swing and miss issues are real and were always predictable. He has enormous athleticism and upside, but I couldn’t predict he would get to it. I would still bet on him having a long career as a regular who is very up and down year to year.
E J : With 2 AZL teams, are there any emerging prospects or deep sleepers for the Padres generating interest among scouts that might have 50 FV?
Keith Law: No, it’s a lot of filler to make sure the prospects have guys to play with.
Chris: My one goal this summer has been to make a peach pie (I aim high to be sure). I’m a fairly decent cook, but have never baked anything in my life. I’m armed with an America’s Test Kitchen/Cook’s Country book. Should I try the crust recipe (which seems terribly complicated, particularly to someone like me who has never made a crust before) or just buy pre-made? If the latter, how much will it affect the taste/consistency of the pie?
Keith Law: Stella Parks’ pie crust recipe is the easiest reliable recipe I know. Very easy, doesn’t require any fancy techniques.
Keith Law: It’s on seriouseats.
Buddy the Elf: What’s your favorite color?
Keith Law: Living Colour.
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: In your opinion, is an animals life less valuable than a human life? I ask because I know your stance on veganism, and you’re a rational man, but I think you don’t give a strong enough stance on factory farming. If you give equal weight to all sentient beings, isn’t our actions towards animals one of our gravest moral ills?
Keith Law: I don’t give equal weight to all sentient beings. An animal’s life is not equivalent to a human life. Our cat just died a few weeks ago of cancer. We did not operate or try expensive treatments. We were extremely sad to lose him, but the grief afterwards has not been close to the grief we faced when beloved human family members or friends have passed away. So I don’t really know where you’re coming from – and if you think I haven’t railed against factory farming, you haven’t been reading.
Carlo: What do you think of xwOBA? Do you think we’ll end up seeing certain players who consistently out perform or underperform their xwOBA — kind of like with FIP?
Keith Law: Someone – Russell Carleton, I think? – wrote a piece showing that these x-stats don’t predict future performance well enough for us to use them.
Steve: There is no active place to leave comments for the chat. Where am I supposed to ask my questions?
Keith Law: Um … right here?
(I’m pretty sure Steve was joking.)
Jeff: Did you ever think Scooter Gennett was capable of putting up 2 seasons like he has recently? I’d be shopping the shit out of him this winter.
Keith Law: I did not, and I can’t shake the sense that a lot of this is ballpark-fueled. I would shop him too. His value isn’t likely to ever be higher, and they have bats in the system.
Joshua: Hi Keith, with the Nats still hovering around .500, and still 6 games back, should they start selling now? Seems to me that Murphy, Gio, and Madson should be able to get back something “meaningful” in return. Thanks.
Keith Law: Too late for that. Besides, I think they should be going for it.
mike honcho: who are some names you are expecting to see in the AFL this year?
Keith Law: I am hoping we get Tatis Jr., Vlad Jr., Robles (if not on the playoff roster), F. Whitley (ditto), maybe G. Whitley?
Russ: Thanks for the chats. We have a son who is going to be a HS freshman this year. What is more important in the summer: large national tournaments or playing on the best team………or some combination of both.
Keith Law: Playing, having fun, not playing too much, and if he’s a pitcher not throwing too much.
Dallas: I’ve been watching old Top Chef seasons (the first season I saw was the 1st All-Star season) and realized the show peaked in Las Vegas with the Voltaggio brothers, Kevin Hubbard, and Jen Carroll. They’ve never had a group of chefs like that season and probably have no chance to ever get that much quality again. I understand now why you’ve given up on the show but at the same time wish you would come back.
Keith Law: That was definitely the best season, although the All-Star season where Blais won was pretty great too.
Michael: The cooking show completely misunderstands why hunger exists. It’s the economic system that keeps people in poverty and hungry, not a lack of food. And the amount of food used on all cooking shows combined is still a pittance.
Keith Law: I agree, although food waste is pretty terrible too. Colicchio tweets about it often, so I am hard-pressed to think Top Chef is just composting all that stuff.
Angelo: When a guy like Oscar Mercado has “average at best speed” but consistently steals 30+ bases in the minors, how does that usually translate at the major league level? Do you think he can steal 20+ bases as a regular with what his speed is?
Keith Law: It may indicate that he’s particularly skilled at stealing – at reading pitchers, picking his spots, etc.
Bort: Is it time for the Astros to move McCullers to the pen permanently?
Keith Law: I think so.
Adam: I know you have been skeptical on Newcomb at times due to his walk rate. It seems he has progressed further and further. Are you buying now?
Keith Law: No.
AJ: Do you regret asserting that it was “absolutely racist” to include the 6 HOF members of the 90s Braves (who happen to be white) in a roundtable interview? It’s wrong, clearly, as being in the HOF and being in Cooperstown last week were prereqs for the interview. But it is also unhelpful for the cause of racial justice that you (and me and many others) promote. It undermines legitimate claims of the racism you thought you were seeing.
Keith Law: The obstinacy is stunning. The “prereqs” themselves were the problem. Those guidelines were not handed down by God or encoded in the laws of the universe. Someone chose criteria that excluded all players of color. They could just as easily have chosen other criteria that put at least one person of color in that room – but they didn’t. That is a failure of representation. And your comment is a failure of critical thinking.
Keith Law: I’m out, there’s only so much dumb I can take in one sitting. Plus my car needs its annual oil change. Thanks for all the questions and for reading, as usual. I should be on a regular Thursday chat schedule this month unless there’s a day game I need to hit. Look for my Gen Con wrapup soon over at Paste.