I’ll be co-hosting an all-ages board game night at the Brandywine Hundred Library in north Wilmington on Friday night starting at 5 pm. Details here.
Keith Law: We require certain skills. Klawchat.
barbeach: Keith: Thanks so much for doing these chats. Loved your book. If you’re Cashman, who are you NOT willing to part with to get Machado?
Keith Law: There’s no way I trade Sheffield, who could probably be their fifth starter in the second half, for two months of Machado. I’m not sure I’d trade him for any rental, really.
BigSauce: Kyle Tucker – Just A Guy, The Guy or better than Average Guy
Keith Law: He’s very much a GUY.
harold: why is Bader not playing everyday in STL? His WAR is the highest of their outfield by far. Fowlers struggles are well documented, and Pham and Ozuna haven’t been good either
Keith Law: I do think Bader should play more, or be traded, so we agree on that. However: 1) His WAR is largely boosted by defense on B-R; Fangraphs doesn’t give his glove the same value; and 2) his offensive value has been almost entirely from mashing against lefties.
Kyle KS: What recourse does Jordan Hicks have? His arm is abused by Matheny, getting bullied by Norris and Matheny and even the STL-PD seemed to pass it off as “boys will be boys.” He’s not in a good spot.
Keith Law: That’s one for his agent. If that happens to a player, their best move is to go to the agent, who can either go to the GM/President or through the union. I don’t think this runs afoul of MLB’s rules on hazing, which were specifically targeted at the September crap like putting rookies in women’s clothes, but I doubt MLB is thrilled at the news.
Jesse B: Is Wander Franco (TB) the next DR player to skyrocket up prospect lists?
Keith Law: He can really hit. Maybe a 2b, but the bat is real. Very quick hands.
Nicholas: In order to trade for Machado, would the Red Sox have to part with a MLB player or do they have enough parts in their MiLB system to make it happen?
Keith Law: I don’t see how they do it.
Kevin: Assuming everyone stays with the White Sox and develops into major leaguers, does Madrigal push Anderson or Moncada to a different position? Asking for a friend.
Keith Law: Anderson is the only true shortstop of the three, so it can’t be him. I think Moncada would make a good CF.
Mike: I’m still upset that no one picked up on your Laaz Rockit reference last week.
Keith Law: I’m upset enough that I’m going to take a holiday in Cambodia.
Brent: As a Cardinals fan I agree with your assessment of Yadier Molina’s HOF candidacy, he just doesn’t quite cut it. Wouldn’t cards fans energy be better spent promoting Jim Edmonds/Ted Simmons who have legitimate HOF cases? I know Edmonds fell off the ballot, but I can dream.
Keith Law: The lack of fan support for Edmonds – who was a two-way star for the Cardinals – puzzles me too.
Mike: Has jalen Miller done anything different this year, or is his resurgence (ok…surgence) more of a mirage?
Keith Law: Still only 21, so plenty of time to develop, but he’s repeating the league and he’s faded quite a bit since his strong start – since June 1st he has a .254 OBP and 3 walks vs 36 K.
Joe: DL Hall has been on a roll lately. Any positive reports?
Keith Law: Quite positive. Three-pitch guy. I get a lot of “mid-rotation starter ceiling” on him, which surprises me because he seems to have a few weapons to miss bats. He’s one of my top targets to see in the second half.
Alex: Anything to take out of F. Whitley’s 2018 or should we just consider it a lost year at this point?
Keith Law: I’m not sure what the question is – he’s thrown just 21 innings, and they were very good.
Alex: Any notable addition to your kitchen equipment from the Europe trip?
Keith Law: We didn’t shop that much, although we did end up in a bookstore in Milan (alas, no Baseball Intelligente) and I picked up a small cookbook devoted completely to gnocchi and gnudi.
Jo-Nathan: Fuck, we are going to see Tim Tebow in a Mets uniform in September aren’t we?
Keith Law: One hundred percent.
Sing: Hi Keith, could you shed some light on what happened with Carter Stewart? Did the Braves realize they had an injured pitcher or was it about money? Also, does getting the 9th pick in 2019 provide more of a benefit to the Braves if he was injured? Love your work and thanks.
Keith Law: I won’t. I will say that I think Stewart should head for a junior college and re-enter next year’s draft; he could be a top 5 pick with a similar spring without injury. I think Atlanta is worse off with the 9th pick next year than with the 8th pick this year.
Gary: Do you see Jason Bahr as an eventual mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I do not.
Dennis: Why didn’t your wife come to Europe with you and your daughter?
Keith Law: She hates flying – used to have a real fear of it, now just truly dislikes it, and the flights to/from Europe are no joke, plus it’s two flights to get to my cousins in Genoa (there was one nonstop option from Newark to Milan, but it was expensive, and EWR sucks). I did offer, but she really wasn’t interested.
Jo-Nathan: Any word on how Kyle Lewis looks? The numbers are underwhelming but what are scouts saying?
Keith Law: Not 100%.
Kyle KS: What sites do you have open while chatting? You pull up numbers and other info in a hurry.
Keith Law: I just open sites as needed, like B-R and Fangraphs.
Pat: SSS at Toledo aside, has Jacob Robson made himself a viable prospect this year? Seems like improved power with a decent eye, but, unsupportable BABIP. 4th OF? CF on a bad team?
Keith Law: Fourth OF. That’s a fringe prospect for me. Not much power for a corner.
El Perezoso: Where do you feel Machado ends up and for what return?
Keith Law: Brewers and Dodgers make most sense, but honestly, if I’m betting, I’d bet on him not moving at all.
Matt: What is Zach Britton worth on the trade market?
Keith Law: Not much, since he’s barely pitched since his return and hasn’t looked right yet.
Jay: Do we need to give Mickey Callaway more time to grow as a manager, or can we already proclaim this was a bad hire? Man he seems clueless so far.
Keith Law: I don’t know what you expect him to do with that roster, though.
Mike: How do you evaluate someone like Puk for rankings coming into next season?
Keith Law: I usually drop TJ guys quite a bit until they’re back throwing and we at least have some reports on whether their velocity has returned.
John: Is Dayton Moore with the Royals when they return to contention?
Keith Law: Probably not.
Rod: Can you see Cristian Pache getting promoted to AA before the end of the year?
Keith Law: I see no point to that.
Jason: What’s the story behind the “accident” of electing Rick Ferrell to the HOF?
Keith Law: Some friend of his asked a few Vets Committee members to vote for Ferrell so he wouldn’t be embarrassed by getting shut out. Enough of them voted for him that he got in. So maybe we shouldn’t use him as some low bar for future candidates to clear.
Matt: Thanks for recommending Ticket to Ride! What should I pick up next?
Keith Law: Depends on who you’re playing with and whether you want something similar or a shade more challenging. Carcassonne is always my go-to recommendation for folks who are looking for a new game but haven’t played a ton of titles.
Sean: Hi Keith, thanks again for the chats. Watching Enyel De Los Santos’ debut his short-arm motion surprised me. Is that a potential problem for him going forward? Also, does he project as a mid to back-end rotation starter? I am trying not to overreact to his potential by scouting his AAA stat line.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter, between the delivery and lack of a real breaking ball.
Mike: Is Machado really that much of an upgrade over Andujar? These rumors don’t pass the sniff test for me.
Keith Law: Specifically, what is two months of Machado (plus October) worth versus Andujar? Maybe two wins, and then the postseason? What’s that worth? Not a huge package of prospects, IMO.
Jimmy: What policies of Trump do you like ?
Keith Law: He keeps promising to liberalize marijuana laws. Granted, I want that to come with expunging records of past convictions for trivial possession, but this would be a huge start.
Scott: If Carter Kieboom continues at a somewhere similar pace to finish out the year, could you see him moving up to a potentially top 25 prospect going into next year?
Keith Law: No, that’s too much for a guy who’s not a shortstop.
Jimmy: RE twitter comment about Kaepernick/baseball: I don’t think you would go out of your way to bash Kap like you have Tebow …
Keith Law: The cool thing is that what you think I would do doesn’t matter. If any player were gifted a job and promotions he hadn’t earned, and thus got in the way of another player (Urena can’t play LF in Binghamton because the washed-up QB is stumbling around out there), I would bash the team that signed him, as I have the Mets.
Aaron: I know you’re more of a fan of literary fiction, but what popular fiction (aside from Harry Potter) have you liked?
Keith Law: I love some classic authors like Agatha Christie and Rex Stout. Ann Patchett certainly crosses over into popular fiction although her work is good enough to count as literature. I guess that’s where you’ll find my tastes in popular fiction – the smart stuff that crosses over into popularity.
JP: Klaw! Whats up my dude? Dustin May.. what are your thoughts?
Keith Law: Great athlete, two pitches right now, control well ahead of command, having an outstanding season for a 20-year-old in a strong hitter’s park.
HH: If you’re Cleveland, do you give up Mejia for two months of Machado (and really, only October)? Does that get it done?
Keith Law: If I’m Baltimore I take that deal. I don’t do it if I’m Cleveland; I might deal Mejia, but not for a rental.
Scooter: Do you expect Alec Bohm (given his track record and age) to be an every day player down the line for the Phillies?
Keith Law: Yes. I think he’s a regular, but probably not a star unless he can become an average defender at third. Early pro reports on him haven’t been good.
Michael: RBI’s mean nothing, but does the 15th 10 RBI game in history mean anything?
Keith Law: No.
Nick: What high school prospect has had the best breaking ball you’ve ever scouted?
Keith Law: I didn’t get a truly healthy Carter Stewart this spring, so it’s one of Groome, Giolito, or Bundy. I said all three had 70 curveballs.
Lenneal McKudu: Has the industry warmed up to Drew Waters, yet? 136 wRC+ through the halfway mark in Rome.
Keith Law: Don’t use wOBA/wRC+ for minor leaguers. Chase Vallot had a 136 wRC+ last year in Wilmington, and then posted a 65 wRC+ this year before he was demoted.
Keith Law: Guys who can’t hit decent pitching – like Vallot – can feast enough on bad pitching to put up what look like good wRC+ numbers, but they don’t actually give us the information that they provide on major leaguers.
Alex: The Tigers trade Fulmer to the Braves for Austin Riley, Drew Waters, and Joey Wentz. Who says no first?
Keith Law: Why would Atlanta do that
Welcome Back Kapler: You being high on Kap as a manager was basically the only reason that I gave him a chance after the disastrous first week as a manager. How do you think he has done? Secondly – do you think the Phillies will get him help like Machado or should they stay the course and sign Machado/Harper in the offseason (either one).
Keith Law: I think he’s done extremely well, and I agree with others who’ve said they’re the favorites for Machado, between the front office connections, their financial wherewithal, and the non-development of Franco (although he’s had a nice few weeks).
Sugar Shane Delery: Is there a more frustrating player in baseball than Gregory Polanco? All the tools but highly inconsistent.
Keith Law: It seems like that’s happened a lot with Pirates’ hitters, no? Polanco and Bell are underperforming in the majors (relative to tools – Polanco hasn’t been bad, but he should be a star). Meadows never developed as expected in the minors, although he was hurt a lot. Newman and Hayes have been OK, but a little below expectations. I don’t have a good answer here.
Matt: Pache is up to 8 HRs on the year, is his body just filling out? It looks sustainable.
Keith Law: I said over the winter I thought he’d end up a 20+ homer guy. He was just so young for low-A last year, and his body was really slight for his age too.
Nick: Can you recall the most a consensus top 10 pick dropped in the draft (not counting signability/health concerns).
Keith Law: It’s always signability or health.
Ryan: Is there anyone in the Mets system that you are high on that other publications or scouts aren’t really talking about much?
Keith Law: I don’t know about other publications, but i have certainly boosted Dunn and Peterson, and to a lesser extent Kay.
Robbie: Garrett Richards seems to need TJ. Is there something about his delivery that’s led to so many of his injuries, or is he just unlucky with the way his body has reacted to the workload?
Keith Law: I think this is largely the same injury, with TJ delayed by stem cell treatment.
Neil: Optimistic about Dalbec, or does his age and level cancel out most of his progress?
Keith Law: He is a prospect thanks to his power, but a 30% strikeout rate – for a guy who’s long had swing and miss problems – for a 23-year-old in high-A is not good.
Nick: Ryan McKenna – what do you make of his breakout this year?
Keith Law: I’m in. Future regular. Late bloomer, not shocking given where he came from.
Anthony: Beyond Adell, any prospects who have impressed a lot thus far this year? Or will we have to wait for the mid season update next week?
Keith Law: I’d rather get the list out next week, and then discuss any other names in the chat that afternoon.
Oscar: Jumping on the Machado trade train. If you’re the Dodgers, what would be your final “take it or leave it” offer for Machado?
Keith Law: I’d put Verdugo and Smith in an offer; I get the sense they’re not as high on Verdugo as his performance would imply, and Smith is behind Ruiz. If the O’s can do better than that, more power to them.
Zach: I’m a 30-yr who finally walked away from the GOP in the wake of Trump. Have they always been this nuts or is this a product of post-Obama hysteria?
Keith Law: I have voted Republican many times in the past, and I think this is a new and very unfortunate phase, one that will almost certainly ensure I never vote for any Republican candidate again.
Aaron : Your early thoughts on the 2019 Draft, any names to keep an eye on during the early part of the draft process?
Keith Law: Too early. I’ll do some events later this month, including Under Armour, and visit this at the end of August once showcases/the cape are done. I will say scouts’ comments on the collegiate national team were fairly negative, with a lot of questions why some players (Logan Davidson comes to mind) weren’t even invited, and comments how the freshmen were better prospects than the sophomores.
Harrisburg Hal: Have you ever made chocolate lava cake? incredibly easy or difficult? I’m not a chocolate person, but thought I’d surprise my wife by baking.
Keith Law: Incredibly easy. You just have to make sure you pull it out early enough … and then we really need to have a conversation about bringing back phrasing.
Cletus: Bundy got crushed again last night. Should O’s shut him down, or rest him more?
Keith Law: I’d like to see them try to use him as an extra-rest starter, the way the Angels tried to do with Ohtani. I don’t think Bundy could be a straight reliever, pitching on consecutive days.
Rob k : Now that Terry and Sandy are gone, I think we’re starting to see how much of the mess in Flushing is due to ownership. How responsible is Selig for propping up the Wilpons when they lost all their money.
Keith Law: Pushing them to sell the club would be best for the league as a whole.
Michael: Why wouldn’t they move Machado? Has to be better than a draft pick
Keith Law: My question is whether they can get everyone involved in the decision – and who knows who exactly is involved, beyond Duquette – to agree on anything.
Matt: Thank you so much for always sticking up for trans right and for standing for equality! We definitely need more public figures like you. How long ago was it that you were a woman?
Keith Law: Yes, you can only believe in rights for trans people if you are one. It’s amazing that there are people this dumb and bigoted in 2018.
Jerome: What happened with Matt Mclain? Did the Dbacks realize they reached for him and decided not to sign him?
Keith Law: Teams never do that.
Nic: What happened with all these draftees not signing?I kind of just assumed,like you had mentiones on your periscope of the draft, that everyone drafted that high would sign.
Keith Law: Two of the unsigned players had some kind of post-draft medical issue, although I don’t even ask what those are when I hear about them. I believe Ginn and McLain simply wanted more money than those teams offered them, which I really don’t understand for Ginn, as a hard-throwing high school pitcher with a violent delivery. I certainly hope he stays healthy, but I worry about kids with that profile who turn down seven figures out of HS (like Karsten Whitson).
Gerald: Excited to see that you are doing a book signing in Acton, MA. Are you going to be doing any scouting while up in the area or is it just a one-day trip?
Keith Law: It’s possible I’ll hit the Cape beforehand.
Matt: If I decided to convert any top 15-20 starter into a closer, would they immediately become the best reliever in the league?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say “any” but certainly most.
Hugo: What should the Orioles do with Chris Davis? It’s a lot of years and dollars to just DFA.
Keith Law: That’s a sunk cost; if he’s not worth the roster spot, then you DFA him. He’ll clear waivers anyway.
Sam: Who would you keep, between Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz? Dustin May and Mitchell White?
Keith Law: Ruiz for sure. May, as White hasn’t been 100% healthy since I saw him last spring (2017).
Oscar: Do you buy into the theory that participating in the HR derby can ruin a player’s swing?
Keith Law: No.
Rob: Surprised that Imani Abdullah retired yesterday. I know he’s been struggling but only 21. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I heard, secondhand, he was topping out in the mid-80s. Even in HS he wasn’t projectable and had no feel for a breaking ball.
Tom: Regarding the Braves and 8th vs. 9th pick–is that a broad assessment or does it have to do with the player specifically?
Keith Law: It’s about next year’s draft looking worse than this year’s. And I did have Stewart #2 on my board.
Stephen: O/U: 200Ks in 2019 for Kopech.
Keith Law: If he makes 28 starts he’ll clear that.
Brett: Do you view Khalil Lee as a potential impact prospect in KC or simply the best of what the Royals currently have?
Keith Law: He’s legit. Maybe a bit of a high-K guy but definite OBP, power, some speed, at worst a plus defender in RF but maybe an average CF.
Rob: After a rough start to the season, Hunter Greene has seemingly made the right adjustments and is doing well. Have you seen him pitch this year?
Keith Law: In March. I’ll see him again on Sunday.
Jack: Do you ever take into account poor pitch calling when scouting a pitcher?
Keith Law: Yes, especially in college/HS. I wrote about that when arguing for Gerrit Cole in the 2011 draft – I thought the coaches called for his four-seamer way too much and his SL/CH too little.
Danny: Everyone is saying that the Mets should trade Degrom, but it doesn’t seem like that potential package is out there. You have to figure that a DeGrom trade would have to be headlined by a top 15 caliber guy, and all those guys are on teams that are not really players for Degrom . Insterestingly, nationals (Robles), Phillies (sixto) and the Braves (acuna/Albies), could headline packages. Is that something you could see happening?
Keith Law: If the right offer isn’t out there – I agree, it seems unlikely at the moment – then you hold him and trade him this winter. I also don’t love the idea of them making a huge deal with an interim GM situation.
Michael: Unfortunately I can’t make it to P&P on Saturday night, and I’m bummed. Will you be doing any other meet-ups while you’re in DC? At the Futures Game?
Keith Law: Yes, I will try to meet fans (if there’s interest) between BP and first pitch.
Michael: As a Cubs fan, losing Torres for a WS title was worth it. Would it not be worth it to any other team to lose a top prospect for Machado and a title? FFF
Keith Law: Gotta get that flag, though. If you trade Machado and lose in the DS, was it worth it? Does Machado materially improve your chances of winning three playoff series?
Johnny O: Ever read any Tom Wolfe? Such a unique voice and applied equally well to fiction and non-fiction. The Right Stuff is a top 5 for me.
Keith Law: Bonfire of the Vanities. Hated it.
Rob: Taylor Trammell a top 25 prospect after this year?
Keith Law: Definitely not.
Johann Sebastian Vogelbach: What’s your take on the Mets trading deGrom? If they’re striving for a consistently competitive team, restocking the farm by selling sky-high on him for a Sale-like return I feel makes sense. But the Mets claim they prefer a “quick rebuild.” That would require the Wilpons to go empty their wallets this offseason which I have little faith in. I’m torn as a fan. Ultimately my take has been if they’re not getting a Hiura or Tatis Jr in return then no need to bother right now
Keith Law: I do think it will eventually be the right move to trade him and Thor. The “quick rebuild” stuff is wishful thinking.
Keith: Sorry bud, but no matter how much you want state enforced, mandatory vaccination, there’s lots of people (like me) who won’t allow that to happen. I’m not even against vaccines (everyone is free to choose), but to essentially make it criminal to dare question what for profit healthcare services produce is downright disgusting. But yeah, enjoy daydreaming about your future 1984-esque utopia where criticizing anything you don’t agree with is illegal. You’re a joke.
Keith Law: Cool strawman, dude. If you don’t want to vaccinate your kids, you just don’t get to send them to public school. There is no state that forces vaccination of everyone. And, by the way, Dr. Wakefield, the compulsory vaccines are barely profitable for manufacturers.
Michael: Just a comment. You should hit up Comet Ping Pong on Saturday night. Solid pizza and craft beer, and right next door to P&P. Most importantly, you’d be supporting the local establishment that was victimized in #pizzagate.
Keith Law: I absolutely plan to.
guren: If you were offered the same deal as Smart Baseball for a new work of fiction, but you needed to take a year off from your current employer, would you accept?
Keith Law: If I had an idea I felt passionate about and thought I could execute, sure.
Scott: Do you think Carter Kieboom can play second base? Currently blocked at 3B by Rendon, could you see him as the eventual long-term replacement for Murphy at second? And if so would he project there as a plus bat and a slightly below average glove? Thanks, just trying to figure out where he most likely projects for the Nats in the future.
Keith Law: He has to go to second base. Can’t stay at short. Doesn’t really have the arm for third.
Tom: Hey Keith, enjoy your chats AND your commentary regarding life in general. Anyway, rate these guys in order – Justus Sheffield, Jesus Luzardo, Casey Mize. Also who has the highest ceiling of the three?
Keith Law: All three will be on my top 50 next week…
Lenneal : Isn’t it funny how bothered certain people are about an NFL player kneeling during music during a game, in response to unrequited black murders, but those same *patriots* say nothing to Trump lambasting NATO and groveling to Putin? Or having Russia in the Oval Office after firing the FBI Director over a legitimate investigation that has nothing but bad facts. It’s almost as if religion and patriotism are being perverted for very flawed ideologies.
Keith Law: There may also be a racial angle to all of this. I don’t want to get too far out on a limb, though.
Johnny O: At what age do you start paying attention to prospects? International signing day is fun but hard to get excited about guys who likely won’t get to rookie ball until 2020.
Keith Law: When international guys first play in the US, I pay attention. Caliber of competition in the DSL (or the defunct VSL) is too variable.
Jeff: Does Rylan Bannon project as an MLB regular or more?
Keith Law: Less. College product boosted by a great hitters’ park.
Lenneal McKudu: Yeah OK about wOBA and wRC+ but has the industry warmed up to Drew Waters?
Keith Law: Some. Different scouts than saw him struggle and not show great effort in the GCL last summer.
Steve: What’s your opinion of Nathaniel Lowe’s breakout this year, raking in AA to the same extent he started the year in High-A?
Keith Law: Never seen him, but will on Sunday. 1b only and not young so he has a high bar to clear.
Janice The Muppet: Silly subject as it is so trivial but besides Snell anyone you are annoyed not making the all star game and who shouldnt have made it
Keith Law: I don’t care either – especially since ESPN didn’t ask me to do a snubs column this year which was fine with me – but how does Aguilar not make it?
Chris: If you were making the calls in Atlanta, would you move prospects for big league assets this year to make a run or wait it out and run with what you already have?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t trade any prospects whom internal evaluations had as part of the future. I think I said last week I’d deal the surplus dudes like Sims, not core pieces like Touki or Soroka (well, if healthy).
Oscar: France or Croatia: Who ya got?
Keith Law: I’m rooting for Croatia because they’ve never won – and I believe no country younger than the World Cup itself has ever won the Cup.
JR: You regularly get asked why hitters don’t bunt to beat a shift. Did you read Jerry Crasnick’s recent article where he interviewed several hitters and asked that question? It was very insightful for me to hear the players perspective. Basically, they all said if I get on first base, it still take two hits for me to score, so I’m trying to get to at least second base and I have to hit the ball in the air to do that. Oh, and bunting isn’t that easy to do against the type of velocity we face – it’s not an automatic single.
Keith Law: I did see that. The second part is a legitimate point, and something a lot of players would have to work on. The first part is wrongheaded – you’re better off on first base than on your ass in the dugout.
Dick: Is Telmito Agustin a GUY?
Keith Law: I think he can be, maybe isn’t yet but could become one.
Robert: Is there a player you saw at Winston Salem that hasn’t gotten a lot of prospect hype that you would like to see again?
Keith Law: I want to see Gonzalez again; he had a day off the second game I saw them.
Chris: Is there a particular skill or ability that is harder to scout than others? Defense, for instance, or in-game power or a pitcher’s control?
Keith Law: Fastball command for pitchers. Pure hit tool for batters, especially high school guys.
Tom: Keith, I know the Red Sox system is barren. Do they even have on prospect that projects as a possible everyday player or mid-rotation starter (not included just drafted Tristan Casas)? I look at their system and it’s just looks terrible.
Keith Law: They’re all hurt, aren’t they? I guess Mata might be one. Everyone else good in the system is on the shelf.
Rob: Does Micker Adolfo have star potential?
Keith Law: Yes.
The Bilmo: The vast majority of minor league players are there not because they are prospects, but to provide the few prospects with guys to play against. So I find it hard to get worked up over Tebow.
Keith Law: That’s true at the lowest levels. He’s now in AA, where that is much less true, and as I said above he’s blocking someone with more potential.
Donald: Hello Keith, draft related questions, when drafting 40 (give or take) players how many besides top 10 rounds do teams expect to sign? and what would be considered a great draft (besides the obvious trout harper) ? 3 average major league guys?
Keith Law: Three average big leaguers is a great draft. A lot of signings after the tenth round are just to fill out those short season rosters so the number will depend on how many spots you have open (holdovers, players debuting from the DSL).
Matt: The biggest winner in a Machado trade has to be Manny right? Won’t have to worry about a qualifying offer following him around.
Keith Law: Good point.
Chris: Given his performance and years of control, what type of return could Oakland get for Treinen? A Miller or Chapman-type return, or something less given his shorter track record? And would you still make that move?
Keith Law: He’s not at their level. But I like your line of thinking, trade him now while good and while there aren’t many closer types on the market.
Tony: I’ve read Kelenic might have been the #1 pick if he were 6 months younger. Does this really make that big of a difference? Looks like the Mets might have stole one SSS aside.
Keith Law: I disagree with that, but I think he might have been the #1 pick if he’d played the spring in southern California or Florida.
Zach: Imagine spending 200m on Trumbo and Davis, just to let Manny walk away. Wow what a bad utilization of resources. Well at least the O’s are big spenders in the int’l FA market….
Keith Law: My understanding is that Davis was the owner’s doing.
Jason: I know your general thought on the all-star game is to reward players who are actually very good over players with very hot starts. And I certainly agree with that. But where do you stand on a guy like Markakis? I feel like he has to be in given how good his half has been, and he’s not some random jobber. Agree?
Keith Law: Doesn’t really bother me.
Jack: Thank you so much for always sticking up for climate change prevention and for standing for the environment! We definitely need more public figures like you. How long ago was it that you were an iceberg?
Keith Law: Till that fucking ‘unsinkable’ boat hit me. I sure showed it who was boss.
danb: still buying Kingery?
Keith Law: Yes.
CD: Can you tell me anything about Andrew Vaughn, the Cal player that won the Golden Spikes award? Surprised he won against some upperclassmen who are more famous, and was the win justified?
Keith Law: His stats were great, but the Pac 12 was way down, and he’s a 1b only. I voted for Mize.
Jason: Coincidence that the 3 best breaking balls you saw in HS arms were all curves and the 3 have had extreme regression/injury?
Keith Law: All three had Tommy John. Is that because they threw great curveballs, or because they threw a lot of curveballs, or just because they threw a lot, period, because they were so good? Giolito was never overworked. Bundy was overworked very badly in HS.
John S: Despite his production (age/level issues), I was extremely surprised to see Buddy Reed selected to the Futures Game. Are we lacking decent OF prospects for the US team?
Keith Law: They didn’t have a true CF besides him, but I’m with you – he doesn’t belong at all, and is the worst player on the US roster. Daz Cameron deserved that spot.
Chris: At one point, Kevin Maitan was so well thought of that the Braves were willing to blatantly break rules to sign him. Now he’s performing badly in Orem with too many errors in the field, bad plate discipline, and not much hard contact. Are his problems fixable? Or is he just not the talent people thought he was?
Keith Law: Swing has regressed big time and he’s gotten thicker.
Mike: I know you’ve talked about mental health stuff before…my girlfriend is dealing with some serious depression combined with recent unemployment leading to financial distress. I’ve volunteered to assist with the cost of therapy as improved mental health would really impact her job search positively but she’s not willing to try anything. Any advice or suggestions for resources to look at for me to support her? Thanks so much.
Keith Law: It’s very difficult to help someone who doesn’t want it, and mental illnesses often lead sufferers to decline help for various reasons. Is there someone else in her life she trusts who might be able to guide her to a therapist? Or could you coax her into talking to her primary care doctor? My PCP in Arizona was the first to prescribe me something for my anxiety.
Jared: you said earlier that reports on Alec Bohm are “not good”…is that just his defense or everything? Did the Phillies waste another top 10 pick?
Keith Law: I think asking that five weeks after the draft is a bit premature.
Aaron Gershoff : Tell the guy arguing against mandatory vaccinations that they are in the best interest in the country. Healthy population = productive population.
Keith Law: Some people don’t care enough about others to let go of misguided beliefs of ‘freedom.’ I’d like to send them all a copy of the Social Contract, and some pictures of kids dying of measles.
Terry: Was Espinal good value in exchange for Steve Pearce?
Keith Law: Yes, quite good.
Chris: I recall you noting prior to his trade that Matt Harvey wasn’t washed up. Have you been surprised by how he’s pitched? Obviously not an ace but he looks like a decent 5th at this point.
Keith Law: Not surprised. And freed of the circus in NY, perhaps now he’ll fetch more in trade for the Reds than the Mets could get for him.
Oscar: Girlfriend and I picked up Lost Cities and Jaipur based on your recommendations and love them! Any recent two player games you recommend?
Keith Law: Patchwork. My daughter also loved Fox in the Forest, a cute but more luck-driven trick-taking game.
David: % Chance that Urias is a part of the Dodger’s future rotation? Looks like he’s back throwing between 88-91 according to reports. Does his particular type of should surgery make regaining command and/or control very difficult?
Keith Law: He also has to show he can hold that velocity. It’s a long way off.
Fat Stackz: What do you think of Kavanaugh buying Nationals tickets with a credit card? Should this preclude him from being nominated? I am skeptical of someone with so little financial responsibility being nominated as a Supreme Court Justice
Keith Law: I can think of better reasons to oppose his nomination.
James: “Giving up” on a player is too extreme in this case since he’s finally getting consistent ABs, but man, I was hoping for more from Desmond Lindsay this year
Keith Law: I was too.
Joe: Any Cincinnati food recommendations?
Keith Law: Sotto and Nada, both owned by the same folks.
Moe Mentum: Favorite Saturday Night Live cast member of all time?
Keith Law: Tough call between Eddie Murphy and John Belushi. Both geniuses in different ways.
Keith Law: Also, a sentimental thought for Phil Hartman, who was … dare I say it … the heart and soul of those great SNL squads.
Joe: Do you ever feel bad about yourself and your life for saying tim tebow is a washed up QB yet his athletic career has made him more of a successful man than you will ever be?
Keith Law: No. Not even for a fraction of a second.
Mike: “Symptom of the Universe” was recently named the best metal riff of all time. Fair? In trying to decide if that was even the best Black Sabbath riff of all time (Sabbath Bloody Sabbath, Faeries Wear Boots, even Neon Nights) I was reminded of the Scott Ian quote – “Tony Iommi wrote every heavy riff there was to write”.
Keith Law: Supernaut.
Richard Dempsey: Could you please give the context of you apologizing to foreigners while abroad? I too have been abroad during the Trump administration many times and have never come across a problem. Might I suggest that you were going out of your way to start the conversation if it indeed happened?
Keith Law: You might suggest that, and you’d be wrong, and kind of insulting too.
DaveAlden53: No question, just a compliment. In one of your recent letters, you noted how your daughter uses the word “peopley” to describe a place that be uncomfortably busy. My wife has Alzheimer’s, so struggles with crowds. I forwarded your letter to her and she now uses “peopley” often. Thanks for growing her vocabulary and communication options.
Keith Law: Well, I’m not going to get a better question/comment this week than that one, so I will end it here. Thank you so much for sending that along.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I hope to see many of you this weekend: I’m co-hosting a family board game night here in Wilmington on Friday at the Brandywine Hundred Library at 5 pm; speaking and signing books at Politics & Prose on Saturday at 6 pm with Jay Jaffe; and then I’ll be at the Futures Game on Sunday. The top 50 prospects update will go up Thursday and I’ll be back that afternoon to chat again. Thanks for reading!