Klawchat 5/31/18.

My latest mock draft went up this morning for Insiders.

Keith Law: I can tell just by the climate, and I can tell just by the style. It’s Klawchat.

John : As a White Sox fan, I’m been more focused on the minor league prospects than the big league results. I’ve heard some info on “Super 2” status for Kopech and Eloy that says that Kopech’s Super 2 date is in June and Eloy’s is in July. Is this information accurate and why would the dates be different?
Keith Law: That’s some incredibly bad information. There is no specific “super two” date – it varies each year, and we don’t know the date for year N until after year N+2 – but it would be the same for all players who currently have 0 days of service. I also think it’s really dumb for fans to worry about this beyond wondering when a player would be called up; it’s not your money, and in the grand scheme, unless the player becomes a star, it’s not much money to the teams, either.

GS : Thoughts on Twins prospect Kirloff? He’s raking. Mid-season promotion or do you wait because it’s his first season back?
Keith Law: The argument for promoting him is that he’s 20, and not young for low-A (not old, either). You might want to challenge him with high-A competition before the summer is out.

John : Thanks for “Smart Baseball”, I think I learned more from that book than my previous 30 years of listening to announcers! Luis Gonzalez (White’s Sox’s 3rd round pick in 2017 out of New Mexico) has been having himself a nice season down in Kannopolis. But he’s a college guy repeating Low-A. Should I temper my enthusiasm or is he someone to keep an eye on?
Keith Law: He’s 22 and shouldn’t be in low-A. He’s a prospect, but his stats this year are kind of worthless for evaluating him.

Greg Bird is The Word: Considering Hicks is a FA after 2019, & Florial is a ???, if the Yanks signed Harper, could he handle CF mostly full-time? If he still has a Mantle fascination, they could give him # 77 & sell him on playing that position. And throw $400 million at him, of course…
Keith Law: I think he can handle CF, but my question would be whether that would increase the chances of him getting hurt (covering more ground, plus he still plays like his hair’s on fire).

Chris: Any opinion on what Ross Stripling is doing? It only ~50 innings, but it seems it would be hard to fake a 30% K against a 5.6% BB.
Keith Law: Stuff is unchanged, but he’s throwing a lot more strikes. I don’t think he’s close to this good, because the stuff isn’t any better and not going to miss that many more bats, but if he’s throwing strikes at this rate (and thus not walking guys) with the stuff he does have, he’s probably a 3rd-4th starter.

Candice Bergen: I’m guessing CBS is praying that no old videos of me in blackface praising Hitler surface.
Keith Law: And audiences everywhere are praying they do.

TJ: Would you even comment on what round Heimlich would be on talent alone or is it immeasurable given the other very serious issues?
Keith Law: I think he’s undraftable, and will voice my criticism of any team that chooses to draft and sign him. I do not give a single, solitary fuck how good a pitcher he might be.

addoeh: Is there anything funnier in baseball, or maybe sports, than watching members of the bullpen sprinting in like an eight year old chasing an ice cream truck because of an argument between the two teams? Bonus points for the bullpen catcher in full gear running in. It’s sillier than a goalie fight in hockey.
Keith Law: It just prolongs the agony of watching the ‘brawl’ (that often is less a brawl than a show of something or other). If you leave the bullpen during a fight, automatic five game suspension.

TJ: How come there aren’t public metrics on minor league WAR?
Keith Law: I don’t think those stats are terribly useful for minor leaguers; we want prospects to show certain skills, and care about their ages relative to their levels, but a minor leaguer who posts a high WAR or wOBA or wRC+ isn’t necessarily a good prospect. Chase Vallot posted wRC+ of 140 and 136 the last two years in low- and high-A, respectively, but wasn’t much of a prospect at all because his hit tool is so far below average. He’s now got a 76 wRC+ in high-A with a Tebowesque strikeout rate.

Adam: Who wins a foot race between Buxton and Acuna???
Keith Law: Buxton is the fastest player in the majors.

Krontz: What’s the better Shane Beiber comp . . . Josh Tomlin or Kyle Hendricks?
Keith Law: Bieber has much better stuff than Tomlin.

BE: As a Tigers fan, how concerned should I be about Avila passing on Mize?
Keith Law: The industry is still betting they take him.

Mark: Do you have any intel on guys the Padres are targeting for later rounds (yes I read your mock)? Did they acquire the extra pick with that CF in mind already in mind?
Keith Law: I think they acquired the extra pick with a lot of guys potentially in mind. You can’t guarantee someone will get to your second pick, but waving extra money around might help, and it means you can then take a better guy when your pick does arrive. It wouldn’t shock me if they took someone like Hankins who slips on signability + injury concerns.

Nick: Is there a stat that factors in level of competition faced? Example: Clevinger facing Houston in back-to-back starts vs. Ohtani’s start vs. the Yankees being skipped so he sees the Tigers?
Keith Law: I know BP has listed aggregate stats of batters faced (so you can see the triple-slash line of a pitcher’s opponents).

James: Hi Keith, thanks for these chats. I can only scout the statline here, but would you say that Jonathan Hernandez is arguably the best pitching prospect the Rangers have (with Cole ragans out right now anyways)?
Keith Law: Who’s his competition at the moment? Ragans is out, Matuella has a 9+ ERA, Speas can’t throw strikes, Cody is out, even Crouse is out.

scott: Hi, Keith. how do we explain what is going with guys like Charlie Morton? 34 yrs old and seems to be getting better. is it a new pitch? something the Astro’s coaches do better than other pitching coaches? thanks
Keith Law: Changed approach in that month he was in Philly, and the Astros kept it going. Stopped trying to sink the ball, went with more four-seamers up.

Mark: How does the process of trying to get a player to “slide” in the draft work? Does a team tell the player they will pay them x amount of $, and the player then tells other teams that’s the floor of what they’d take?
Keith Law: Exactly. Don’t take my guy because he won’t sign for less than $2 million. Sometimes it works, sometimes Anthopoulos says screw you, I’ll take who I want.

Andrew: Thanks for all the work Keith, including the latest mock. I know you have Winn at 2 to the SFG, but what would you do if you were Sabean / Evans? Take Stewart because he’s your best player available?
Keith Law: I’d make an offer somewhat below slot to Stewart and Liberatore (my #3) and see who takes it. You do want to be able to go over at pick 45 and grab someone else of first-round caliber.

Krontz: If MLB expands to 32 teams, what’s your favorite setup then? Eight divisions w/ four teams each where division champs make playoffs and no more Wild Cards?
Keith Law: Worse. That will give us another sub-500 division winner.

Derek: Adam Eaton is heading on a rehab assignment and scheduled to come back next week. What should the Nats do upon his return? It seems clear that Harper, Eaton, and Soto are the three best bats and should play most of the time. CF defense would be a problem, but the extra offense more than makes up for it, in my opinion. Who of those three would you stick in CF? I can make a case for and against each one.
Keith Law: Soto can handle CF.

barbeach: Keith: Love the chat and the other posts–and bought and loved your book. Thanks so much for all that! Dom Thompson Williams on NYY High A team is a dinger machine early on. (I know, SSS) But is he someone we should keep an eye on?
Keith Law: He’s 23 with a .263 OBP since his promotion and ~40% K rate, so that’s a no.

Dave: How would you handle a situation like Felix Hernandez in Seattle. Guy is a Mariners legend, and locked into another year at $27 million, but is clearly hurting the team when he pitches. With all that mileage on his arm, he’s not going to become elite again.
Keith Law: Do they have a better option for his rotation spot? I may be forgetting someone, but if they do, then they need to just replace him.

Brandon: Would Mize rank in your top 50 MILB after signing?
Keith Law: Yes, my #1 prospect in every draft class has been a top 50 prospect when I’ve done the list in July.

Pete: Austin Meadows, Gleyber Torres, even Ronald Guzman … all showing a lot more more HR pop in the bigs than they did in the minors. Has to be the baseball, right? Also, is Meadows a star if he stays healthy?
Keith Law: Definitely the baseball – now we know something’s different. But Meadows was just not very good in AAA, and it’s foolish to disregard that and assume his 50 AB in the majors are the truth.

Derek: If you were a fan of a team that decided they were going to draft Luke Heimlich, what would your reaction be? Even knowing that there’s a chance that he flames out in the minors and never gets called up, my gut reaction would be disappointment and I’d be praying that he never gets called up.
Keith Law: I’d call the office and cancel my season tickets or say I’m done spending money on the team.

Michael: Hi Keith- I am confused about why more hitters don’t try to beat the shift by bunting or going the other way. Especially in a high leverage, late inning situation when you need baserunners. What’s the deal here? “Hit ’em where the ain’t”, right?
Keith Law: I’m confused too and have no answer.

Kevin: What’s the ceiling/floor of Cole Winn?
Keith Law: Ceiling is #2 starter because of control/command of above-average but not elite stuff. Floor … well, he’s a HS pitcher, the floor is that he never sniffs the majors, unfortunately, but I’d bet he does more than that.

Kevin: Who do you expect to be some of the overslot draft picks in the second round?
Keith Law: If you compare my top 100 to my mocks, any HS kids I have in the top 40 or so who don’t go in the first round are obvious targets for over-slot deals. Siani comes to mind. Seigler, Thomas, Scott, Hankins, Rocker could all go over slot in the comp round or second. All good prospects with strong commitments to good schools.

Justin : Did you watch the Americans? If no, any plans to?
Keith Law: I’ve never seen it.

Andy: I think it’s finally time for you to admit to your burner accounts. You’re actually tweeting under the name CJ Nitkowski right?
Keith Law: I’ve been trolling Lebron and the rest of you for years as Skip Bayless.

Joe Don: No question, just thanks for doing these. Best chatter in baseball. I’ll hang up and listen.
Keith Law: Thanks!

Archie: You mentioned that Madrigal is likely a sure fire big leaguer. How long do you think he will take to get there?
Keith Law: Late 2019.
Keith Law: Remember he’s probably still regaining strength after the hand injury. Same for McCarthy at UVA.

Steve: Hi Keith, do you think Jason Martin is a starter in Pittsburgh? He’s never not hit.
Keith Law: Extra guy. Limited to LF, don’t see the power to profile there.

MuellerTime: Winker to the bench – dumb move, or dumbest move?
Keith Law: Dumb developmental move. Would have helped his own cause with better performance, but still, this kid is part of the future.

BE: Reports are that Christin Stewart is making strides on defense. Can he play LF in the majors?
Keith Law: I have always thought he could play a passable if below average LF.

Santos: I don’t understand the argument in favor of Rizzo’s slide, or breaking up a play on purpose in general. If a player ran into a first baseman on purpose on their way through the base, everyone would agree that’s a dirty play, so why do some people think it’s OK to do that same thing, but use your legs instead? How is it different? The competition in baseball is not about physically overpowering your opponent.
Keith Law: I said on Twitter even if it was legal it was not acceptable. I’m glad MLB ruled it illegal, but now they have to warn him and then suspend him if he does it again.

Andy: Do any teams voluntarily pay minor leaguers more? I’m just thinking that if there’s a late round high school kid, not a huge bonus, but you’ll get 10k per month in salary may convince him.
Keith Law: Only minor league free agents.

Ryan: Are there any similarities between Nola and Singer coming into the draft? Believe you had Nola rated higher with his command and movement on pitches. Phils haven’t had much success with high draft pick position players. Read Gilbert could be a possibility.
Keith Law: There’s some delivery similarities, but Nola is better across the board – more flexible, better command, better changeup. I like Gilbert a lot but he’s probably a reach at 3.

JR: Anything you think MLB could do to better promote the draft and make it a bigger media event (assuming they want too)? I realize there is only so much they can do given a lot of the players being drafted are high schoolers (and even the college guys aren’t on TV all the time like their NCAA basketball/football counterparts) that the casual fan knows nothing about.
Keith Law: Trades. Allow trades. It’s so simple and no one will push for it.

Russ: Tirso Ornelas is acquitting himself nicely at for age 18 in High-A. Is he a potential top 50 type prospect down the line?
Keith Law: I think so although as a RF he has a high offensive bar to clear. I believe in the swing.

Erwin: What do you think of Dennis Santana? SP long term?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen him since March 2017, and the only scouts I know who’ve seen him didn’t see him in Tulsa, but we all had him as a reliever coming out of last season. Two pitch guy with lower slot. He is, however, a converted SS and relatively new to pitching, so maybe he’s something very different this year. I’m hoping his debut comes soon and not on Monday night so I can see it.

JR: Who do you predict makes it the MLB first from this years draft?
Keith Law: I have to do a column on ‘superlatives’ and that will be one of them. Mize isn’t a bad bet, though.

TJ: Do you think there is ANYthing suspicious about the resurgence of all of these Astros pitchers at the same time?
Keith Law: No, Trevor, I don’t.

Russ: Cavan Biggio’s breakout reminds me of Kingery adding HR pop out of nowhere last year. Do you buy Biggio as a regular in the bigs?
Keith Law: Where does he play? Kingery is a 7 runner and 7 defender at second. Biggio is none of those things.

Aaron C.: I’m sure there are much better examples, but can you help me understand why teams draft/acquire players (ex. Casey Meisner when Oakland got him) and then immediately tweak/change what’s ostensibly been working?
Keith Law: Nope, I don’t get it. I understand changing what hasn’t been working, and that’s a great way to find hidden value.

JT: The rumour or speculation was spread on Twitter that Meadows is seeing the ball better in the better light MLB parks. That sounds, well, like BS. How do you think the Pirates accommodate their OF?
Keith Law: That is … baseball pseudoscience? I am fine giving Meadows an opportunity but still don’t think they should give up on Polanco.

addoeh: How long before the draft would potential draftees and teams start exchanging dollar figures?
Keith Law: That’s already sort of started with asks from players/advisers but the serious stuff starts Monday.

Gavin: I know you don’t follow other sports, but how many current NBA players could you name? More than 10?
Keith Law: Lebron. Curry. Durant. Kevin Love. Westbrook. Isaiah Thomas (that’s almost unfair, isn’t it?). Irving. um … that Kristaps guy on the Knicks, because wasn’t SAS horribly wrong about him and I keep seeing it on Twitter?
Keith Law: oh, Carmelo Anthony.
Keith Law: I think I’m tapped out there.

Max: Weird situation with Vasil and thanks for your article on him. Makes no sense for him to opt out. Wouldn’t the concern of future injury lead him to believe that if he can get life changing money with an overslot end of 1st round deal, it might be worth more than going to college now? Also, what is preventing a team from trying to do this? Should every team be calling him to see what he says on draft day, in case he changes his mind and will accept such a deal?
Keith Law: UVA had another player, Brandon Neeck, withdraw from the draft too. Maybe the coaching staff has something to do with this? And maybe MLB needs to step into this process.

Stan: If you drafted Tanner Dodson, would you send him out as a pitcher, a hitter, or let him do both and see what works best?
Keith Law: Sounds like pitcher is the belief. No reason not to let him hit a little this summer, since all college pitchers are on restricted schedules their first pro seasons anyway, and see what happens.

Tony: When will Forest Whitely be ready for the MLB?
Keith Law: Later this year. Just came off suspension and still hasn’t pitched in a game.

Dave: Hi Keith thanks for the chats, I look forward to them every week. Thanks too for Smart Baseball, really enjoying it. He’s getting 13.4k’s per 9, giving up 2.6 walks per nine and has an ERA of 2.76 in AAA, all improvements from 2017. He’s also scrapped his slider and introduced a cutter. At the risk of scouting the stat line and relying on a relatively SSS, is Jalen Beeks more than just a guy?
Keith Law: He had the cutter last year too. His results are great, but all scouts I’ve asked have him as a reliever.

Juan Soto: Am I exceeding your expectations?
Keith Law: It’s been ten games. There are no expectations for a sample that small.

Jim: Keith, thanks as always for the chats. According to the Transactions page on ESPN, Minnesota “Traded RHP Phil Hughes, cash and the 74th overall draft pick in 2018 to San Diego for C Janigson Villalobos”. How is that draft piece in there?
Keith Law: That draft pick is the only reason the trade happened. The Padres just got an extra $800K in pool money.

Pat: Hoe much does spin rate RPM matter? Ie a 95 mph fastball, but one has greater spin rate. Does it matter more on breaking pitches?
Keith Law: Very high or very low spin rate on a FB makes it more effective. Dead-average spin rate and average velocity is a hitter’s favorite kind of fastball.

Ray: Is your position on Heimlich and other offenders that you don’t want them to be in a job that has influence over others or just that they should never have a meaningful job? I’m speaking more from the standpoint of what to do with rehabbed offenders that aren’t high profile.
Keith Law: I cover baseball. My position is that no baseball team should employ someone who did what he admitted he did.
Keith Law: (It’s also worth mentioning that the idea that every offender can be “rehabbed” isn’t well supported by science. I think it comes more from theology – there’s certainly a strong strain in Christianity arguing for forgiveness and second chances, but there are some paraphilias that just can’t be fixed, and that should play into our views on how the justice system and society should handle people who’ve committed such crimes. But for me to go from there to say that such a person should never be employed anywhere would be beyond the scope of what I know on the topic.)

addoeh: I’ll guess your NHL player list. “Crosby, Ovechkin, and, umm…, is Jagr is playing?”
Keith Law: Bossy, Potvin, Goring, Tonelli, Bill Smith, Trottier, Gillies, Sutter, Chico Resch!

Thomas: Your prospect work is second to none, but I’m curious if there are any MLB guys you’ve enjoyed watching develop this year? Anyone who has been a pleasant surprise for you? You must at least be happy to see Jurickson Profar getting some ABs.
Keith Law: Yep. Soler, Mazara, Snell too.

Santos: Jim’s question was how can MN trade a pick if trading picks isn’t allowed?
Keith Law: Ah, I didn’t follow. Competitive balance picks are tradeable. No other picks can be traded.

Cletus: Ryan Mountcastle an MLB regular?
Keith Law: Yes. Not sure at what position.

Orville Overall: Hans Crouse was out? I thought he was slated to join Spokane when the Northwest League starts up.
Keith Law: Biceps something-or-other, I believe. Spokane doesn’t start for 3 weeks, so he may be back by then.

Ryan: What if Heimlich got a full pardon from Trump, like Dinesh D’Souza did? Then can he play ball? Seriously, D’Souza – WTF?!
Keith Law: D’Souza, who helped out closeted LGBT students at Dartmouth and loves to repeat the conspiracy theory bullshit that Soros was a Nazi collaborator (he wasn’t; he was 14 when WWII ended). Twitter needs to just kick him and his ilk off entirely.

Justin : How do you feel about the way baseball is discussed on general sports show on your network? On PTI for example there is a particularly disdainful attitude toward analytics/wins and RBI are still the measures of a player…
Keith Law: I don’t watch any of those shows, sorry. I don’t think I’m in their target audience.

Jonathan wants to know: Please provide a comp for Jonathan India, please? Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t do player comps, sorry. I find them generally misleading. It’s part of why I don’t do player tool grades either – they became shortcuts that people tend to focus on to the detriment of the scouting reports as a whole.

Jason : I know you were high on him prior to the season, but has Adell answered the questions about his ability to make consistent contact? Where do you see his ceiling?
Keith Law: So far, yes. Could be a superstar with those tools and this (surprising) contact rate.

Tom: Can Spencer Torkelson be a GUY, or is he just a guy?
Keith Law: Just a guy.

Matt : How often do you go to games in the Cape Cod league? I’ll be out there in June and I am deciding if it’s worth a one of my few nights out there.
Keith Law: I love the Cape, but haven’t been the last two years for various reasons.

TJ: Triston Casas – playable at 1b for a bit or is he a near term DH?
Keith Law: Fine at 1b, not good there, but not Vogelbach.

curt: Thought on Drew Waters from the Braves? Top 100 come winter?
Keith Law: Top 100? The bar is really high for that. I don’t see him anywhere close.

Gene: Keith, love the chats. I’m a depressed O’s fan and an English Comp teacher. I’ve always enjoyed your book reviews and wondered if you had any good banned novel title recs that I might incorporate into one of my classes. My students already read Faulkner, Atwood, Chabon, Morrison, Toole, Vonnegut, Hemingway, etc.
Keith Law: Color Purple gets listed often as a banned/challenged title. A quick google search tells me Grapes of Wrath is often challenged – maybe for the final scene? (GTFOH, people.) One Hundred Years of Solitude is an amazing book often challenged. Are your students too young for Lolita? While very often banned, it’s not actually explicit – it’s disturbing AF, but that’s part of its power.

The Great Alonso “Bohm”?: Are you a believer in what Peter Alonso is doing in AA at age 23 and if Bohm were to slip to the Mets, would they take him knowing they already have Alonso (plus Smith who is trying to play OF)?
Keith Law: I am a believer in Alonso, and Bohm would be in their mix but perhaps not their top choice. I think I can come up with six names I believe they’d take over him (which includes guys like Mize or Bart, who go before them in any scenario).

Chris: Do scouts look hard at level of opposition in minors? Like if a top prospect is belting all of his home runs off non-prospects, does that lessen his value? Or too hard to quantify?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely.

Scott B: As a Red Sox fan, now living in Delaware, I was able to catch Salem this weekend in Wilmington. I came away unimpressed with what I saw. Any prospects of note that maybe had a bad weekend?
Keith Law: That’s a bad team.

Tom C: I spent too much time thinking about Molly Knight’s question the other week about who is the most famous current MLB player. My immediate thought was Jeter, which, umm.. Anyway, I went with Aaron Judge based on 1) plays for NYY, 2) hits home runs, 3) has really cool name. Who would you say?
Keith Law: I think Harper or Altuve. Altuve’s surprisingly well known … I run into people who profess they’re not fans of baseball but know him or ask about “that short guy in Houston” or something like it.

RW: Can an NL team draft Seth Beer with hopes that maybe he fits in at 1B or, wishcast on him in LF?
Keith Law: They can do that. There is no rule against them doing so. There’s also nothing stopping me from laughing at them.

Chris: Have you heard anything from scouts about Richie Martin? Is this just some random SSS, or has he rediscovered his swing from The Cape?
Keith Law: Guy repeating the level, plays 34 games this year, with 82 last year of awful performance. I’m not saying this year isn’t different, but the evidence before us should discourage you.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Are you a fan of Vonnegut?
Keith Law: Yes. I read every novel of his but the last one, I believe.

Jim: Hate to whale on the moribund equine, and can take this to the comments later, but the transaction notice doesn’t say “compensation pick” (as they usually do), and the 74th pick comes out to late second/early third round. That sounds like a regular draft pick, unless I’m missing something.
Keith Law: It is the last pick in the Competitive Balance Round B.

UGW: Let’s assume Harper and Machado both get 10 yr, 300 million dollar deals. Given that both will be entering age 26 seasons, will these deals be a net positive for the team in your opinion?
Keith Law: Yes. They may not fare well in the last few years of the deal (but they still might given how great those players are), but they’ll work out just fine.

mike sixel: Keith, do you drink Rye? If so, recommendations for mixing rye?
Keith Law: It makes a fine Rye Old-Fashioned. That’s about all I know about it.

JJ: Never been a huge fan of Vonnegut’s books, but his cameo in Rodney Dangerfield’s “Back to School” was spectacular.
Keith Law: Salvaged the entire movie for me.

Corey: speaking of the Boston farm system, other than Pawtucket as a solid true taxi squad but with few rising prospects , the system overall looks bad. obviously you want a strong farm but given how young + stacked with longer term players the MLB club is and will be for a few years, i shouldn’t feel that concerned right ?
Keith Law: Right. The system is down (yo), but two big reasons are all the promotions to the majors, and the trades that brought in Sale, Kimbrel, and, well, the ghost of Tyler Thornburg.

GIO: I know Swaggerty gets comped to Gardner by some, but Gardner was just a slap hitter when he first came up. I more see Kiermeier in the swing and the set up. What ‘ya think?
Keith Law: Right, Gardner came into power after he got to the majors (I think the ballpark helped, because he realized he could drop the bat head and almost golf balls out to right). Swaggerty is trying to hit like that now, and it’s meant more homers but a worse average and a higher strikeout rate.

Paul: Free case of Oreos if you answer my fantasy question. I bought low on Goldschmidt. Any optimism that he gets it back on track this year? Where do I send the Oreos?
Keith Law: Any optimism would be based on past performance; he’s not just been bad this year, but seems to be trending worse, as if something’s physically wrong with him (there is no public evidence of this, I’m just saying that’s how bad he’s been). I’m also wondering where you’re getting all these Oreos.

Chris: Isn’t the downside to teams trading draft picks, that we would see a lot of picks dealt to large market teams for salary relief (thinking about the Dbacks trade of Arroyo a few years ago..and that was before the Brain-trust arrived in Miami)?
Keith Law: Arroyo was traded with Toussaint to clear the salary, so that’s already happening even without trading trade picks. However, the argument that you broached is the one originally made in the 1980s to support banning trades of picks. The environment has flipped today where most low-payroll teams would much rather acquire picks than deal them, because draft picks remain the highest ROI way to add players to your system. It’s a screaming bargain when you hit on one, so I doubt any semi-competent GM is going to just deal away these picks on a regular basis.

Chris: What is stopping a team from telling Mize “listen we pick 20th, but we’ll blow our entire draft budget on you, and draft all senior signs besides you?
Keith Law: He wouldn’t fall that far. There’s only so much you can do, especially with a college junior, whose leverage is limited; he’s certainly not returning to school next year.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. I will post yet another mock on Monday morning and then chat that afternoon to discuss the draft, which begins Monday evening. I’ll also be hosting the BBTN Podcast on Monday while Buster is traveling, so we’ll be talking mostly draft there as well. Thanks so much for reading and for all of your questions!