Klawchat 5/25/18.

My ranking of the top 100 prospects for this year’s MLB draft is up for Insiders. Over at Vulture, my ranking of the 25 best mobile board game apps went up last week.

Keith Law: It’s just a change in me – something in my liberty. Klawchat.

Spencer: Corey Ray recent performance is reminding me of what made him so intriguing coming out of L’Ville. Obviously a SSS, but what do you think his ceiling as a prospect is nowadays?
Keith Law: Seems like an everyday player, but the chance of him being much more than that is very slim. I’m not sure who changed his setup at the plate, or why, but it cost him a year of development time, and he hasn’t totally regained what was lost.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Given the extreme shifting and the lack of offense, would you support a rule that forces teams to start infielders on the dirt? Seems like the “rover” in the OF is hurting offense more than stacking infielders on one side of the field. Thanks as always for doing these chats.
Keith Law: No, I don’t. One, I think hitters should be more comfortable dropping bunts or shortening up to push groundballs to vacated areas. Two, there’s some research (Russell Carleton has covered this) that the shifts are less effective than they first appear to be.

Jc Cuevas: Is there place in an outfield for a guy like Brandon Nimmo to start? Or is the dreaded SSS? Ty Keith
Keith Law: He should be playing every day vs RHP, and that was true on Opening Day. Of course, the Mets will probably sign Gorman Thomas instead.

David: How likely are the Phillies to maintain their current winning percentage over the course of the season? Also, your thoughts on Kingery’s play so far and what you would do with Crawford when he returns from the DL? Back to AAA or starting SS? Thanks.
Keith Law: They’re not going to win 60% of their games this season. Very few teams do that in any given year. Crawford should be the everyday SS.

Dan: Keith, what’s going on with Giolito? He’s shown flashes during his time with the Sox but getting concerned about his consistency. Anything to worry about long term or just a young pitcher finding his way?
Keith Law: He was great in March, and it seemed like when he left spring training he left all the gains he’d made mechanically back in Arizona. I don’t know if it was the cold, or some undisclosed physical issue (not an injury, but maybe soreness that led to a change), but he’s been totally out of whack all season. His velo is down and command is gone right now. I can’t see rolling him out there as a starter right now until they’ve reestablished his delivery.

addoeh: I see there are more high schools players in your top 10 big board than your mock drafts. Is the difference down to personal preference (maybe higher ceiling vs higher floor) or purely that college players may sign for lower figures? Or something else entirely?
Keith Law: Teams fear the risk of HS players. I get that, but I also think the safety of college players is somewhat overrated. Look at what Haseley and Pavin Smith are doing in high-A right now.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you listen to albums in order (tracks 1-X) or shuffle? I’ve been shuffling ever since i started to listen digitally. I feel like I’m in the minority when talking to others.
Keith Law: In order. I figure the artist intended that.

Todd Boss: What do you think of Tampa’s “opener” strategy? Do you think a team could really try to do an entire staff of relievers? Isn’t that kind of the logical end-game of today’s move towards high velocity short inning reliever focus?
Keith Law: I wonder if teams will respond to this by tweaking the tops of their lineups and eliminating any such advantage. I do like the experimentation, though. Tampa has been so short of starters anyway that they had to do something creative.

Jay C.: Keith, Given Austin Meadows’ impressive SSS performance, does he have a chance to stick w/ the Pirates when Marte returns? How would you project his overall ceiling now after a fairly lackluster minor league career…any changes from your initial assessment?
Keith Law: It’s 25 at bats. you might as well roll a couple of dice.

LexSteele: If you were running the Giants’ draft, assuming the Tigers take Mize #1, who would be your pick at 2?
Keith Law: That’s what my top 100 represents – my personal draft board, based on what I’ve seen (I think I’ve gotten more than 40 of those top 100 in person, the rest are from video + talking to scouts).

Andy: I fully agree that there is a problem with the justice system in this country. The justice system absolutely railroads people into pleading guilty in order to get them through, especially poorer minorities. There are many fundamental issues that should absolutely be debated and rectified. I just don’t think that a white guy who pleaded guilty to doing something untoward with a 6 year old relative is the hill I’m going to start that fight on.
Keith Law: I’m with you. The fact that he was even offered such a deal, with no jail time, is indicative of the privilege of his race & background.

eric: what would a good cardinals package for machado be? you think bader, knitzner, Hudson and helsley get it done?
Keith Law: That actually feels light at the top. It’s a lot of quantity, but I would assume baltimore would want a deal with a better headliner even if it means fewer players.

Andy: Can you imagine how badly the Padres would be doing without Eric Hosmer and his veteran leadership? I mean they would almost assuredly be in last place, competing with the Marlins and Reds at the bottom of the NL.
Keith Law: He actually hasn’t been that bad at the plate, at least – but it’s been irrelevant to them, and by the time they’re good, he probably won’t be.

Rick: Have you seen/ heard any updates on Haseley over the past month? Is this just a blip or has he possibly turned a corner after a rough first year?
Keith Law: I just got a report the other day from a scout who saw Clearwater and had nothing positive to say about the bats on the roster – not Haseley, not Moniak, not Gamboa.

Andy: In NBA and NFL draft circuits, there are a number of guys who rise in the draft based on they look in workouts. Their measurables are huge, but they don’t really impress much in game. Kelenic seems to be a baseball version. He looked good last summer, and now is looking good in basically workouts. Could this lead other players to basically work out for a year instead of playing in a less than rigorous high school baseball season that could expose actual flaws?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’ll ever be widespread, but for kids who play in weird environments – cold weather states, states without HS baseball or who only have it in the summer – it could make a ton of sense. However, such players lose out on the benefits of playing real games in a team environment, and scouts lose the opportunity to see how the players react to real game situations.

Rick: Just wanted to say I bought your book last week on Amazon and already finished. It was great. Thanks for writing it.
Keith Law: Thanks! I’m thrilled you liked it. It makes up for that alt right meanie who said he’d never read my “damn book” this morning.

Jo-Nathan: Any chance you move Vasil up on your board after his clean two innings?
Keith Law: Two whole innings? Wow.

Trixie: What is the funniest book you ever read?
Keith Law: Gosh, that’s a good question. Jasper Fforde’s books have really made me laugh out loud in a way that few other authors have. Wodehouse too.

Matt: Been watching Josh Stowers tear it up for Louisville this season. Top-200 kind of guy this year?
Keith Law: Top 200 yes. Interesting combination of a little pop, some speed, probably CF in the long term, doesn’t have the present hit tool of some of the other college CF in the class.

George R.: Fernando Tatis, Jr’s April: .177/.231/.333, BB 6%, K 33% May: .340/.427/.649 BB 10%, K 26% And he’s still 19 in AA. Can people chill out with the doom and gloom talk?
Keith Law: Yep. We do this every year. By the way, i saw Bloom from MLB is still killing the Padres’ system, including Tatis. I don’t get that at all.

Justin: Hi Keith, With HS/College pitchers throwing excessive amounts of pitches in games. What would be the reaction from MLB front offices if the kid decided he was done at a certain amount of pitches and took himself out of the game? ie looking toward his future instead of one game. Thanks and have a great weekend.
Keith Law: Teams would be thrilled. They know who’s been overused, and they often slide such players down slightly on their boards.

Matthew: You’ve previously stated that baseball is mainly just a job for you, and that your hobbies lie more in the other things you write about. If money were not an issue for you, which subjects would you continue to write about, among your many published interests (baseball, books, movies, board games, music, cooking, etc.)? Would you keep writing at all?
Keith Law: I’d definitely keep writing. If I won the lottery (which I don’t play, because lotteries are a tax on people who suck at math), I’d still keep up the blog.
Keith Law: I’m not sure I’d keep writing about baseball if it weren’t a job, because I would be afraid I’d no longer be good at it if I weren’t pursuing it full time.

Slidepiece: Just curious, have you ever participated in a fantasy baseball keeper league?
Keith Law: Not in more than 15 years.

Tim: Hey Keith did you get a chance to listen to the new Arctic Monkeys album yet? Very different sound for them.
Keith Law: The good news is that if you liked “No.1 Party Anthem,” the new album contains Party Anthems Nos. 2-12.

Larry: Would Gorman still be your pick for Atlanta?
Keith Law: Yes. Could also see Singer there. They loved Vasil before the injury; not sure they’d do that at 8 now.

Swag: Thoughts on Welington Castillo’s suspension and apology?
Keith Law: I couldn’t care less about the suspension. The apology was surprisingly straightforward. That’s as close as we’ve gotten to an actual admission.

Greg: Can you talk me into liking Nolan Gorman? Contact questions, no clear defensive spot. I just don’t know what makes him in consideration for top 10 teams?
Keith Law: He has the most power of anyone in the class.

Mac: Is Jonathan India in play for the White Sox at 4? If he can play 2B does he have a higher ceiling than Madrigal?
Keith Law: I think he’s probably on the outside for them but in consideration. By that I mean that he’s probably not in their top 4 (I think, it’s not like they showed it to me), so it’s very unlikely he ends up their pick.

Matt: If you were running the Jays when would you call up Vlad Jr.?
Keith Law: I liked Buster’s idea of calling him up to DH when they trade Donaldson. Right now, he should be in AAA, but they also should either make it clear to him he has to improve on defense to get a callup, or just move him to a position he can credibly play. He’s no better than a 40 defender at third right now and probably less.

WarBiscuit: Mize has seemed to struggled(for his standards) in 4 of his last 5 starts after yesterday and past his innings of 85(college+USA) already. Concerned? And could this caused him to slip slightly from 1?
Keith Law: Not concerned. He hasn’t really struggled either; the start vs Florida he was outpitched by Singer in the box score but looked much better to scouts.

Andrew: I’m terrified the Tigers are going to take a bat instead of Mize. Is this concern valid?
Keith Law: That they might do so? Yes. That it would be a mistake? That’s debatable. I would take Mize. I don’t have a pick or a budget.

Sal: Peterson, Kay, Dunn, Alonso…cause for cautious optimism for Mets fans? What kind of GUY is Alonso?
Keith Law: Yep, most of the healthy guys are faring well at the moment. I saw they put Dom Smith in LF in AAA, though, which is … interesting, and not in a good way.

Bret: Which Cardinal OF prospect are you buying long term as an every day player, if any…Bader, O’Neill or Mercado? I’m personally bias towards Mercado. Thanks.
Keith Law: Mercado has the most upside. Bader’s a regular. Still see some real swing and miss concerns with O’Neill. He’s also the worst defender of the 3.

Joe: When will Brendan Rogers be up?
Keith Law: Next year? I’m not sure there’s an impetus to get him up sooner.

Jordan: Nick Dunn from University of MD a first day guy, or return to school guy?
Keith Law: There’s an ocean in between those two options and he’s in it. Probably 6th-10th round.

Mike: Dennis Santana a major league starter? If so, more back-end or something more?
Keith Law: The performance this year would indicate starter and he has two pluses in the FB and breaking ball. What I do not buy is the sudden flip in his platoon split.

Bill: Love the chats, will finally be getting around to your book this summer. What are your thoughts on Shane Bieber’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Lack of huge stuff might mean a league average ceiling but the command is very real and should help him pitch well above what the radar gun might indicate.

Mark: Do teams emphasize certain pitches? The fangraphs Padres prospect list seemed to have the changeup as the best offspeed pitch, is that organization specific?
Keith Law: That’s been a Preller fetish going way back to Texas. He loved signing DR/VZ kids with arm strength and a changeup.

Alex: Was recently reading the UZR section of Smart Baseball – with how much shifting there is now, is that stat essentially meaningless for assigning individual credit/blame because the historical data is so different?
Keith Law: I believe UZR still omits plays listed as having shifts, but you’d be better off asking Mitchel on Twitter (he’s very responsive) about how he’s handling such plays now.

Mac: Who’s the guy moving up draft boards that surprised you the most?
Keith Law: Schnell. Power is real, good athlete for sure. Not a CF, big arm bar at the plate. Curious whether his above-average speed lasts – his body type seems more likely to settle in as average speed as he gets bigger & stronger.

Dan: Chances that Schwarber wins the Gold Glove? His #s are looking pretty, pretty, pretty good.
Keith Law: Defensive numbers in ~50 games are really not meaningful.

Greg: Any concern about Kyle Wright this year? Numbers are extremely mediocre for a college arm who was in consideration at 1.1.
Keith Law: No they’re not. He’s in AA – most college players are in high-A less than 12 months out of the draft.

Dylan Bundy: Why do the Orioles trot me out for the 9th inning of a 9-3 game??
Keith Law: I have no idea. Letting him go 8 at just over 100 pitches seemed fine. I’m sure they had at least one reliever who could get three outs without giving up six runs. Given Bundy’s history of elbow and shoulder problems, plus the way he faded last year after a few weeks when he was very good and worked harder, they should be extremely cautious.

Joe: Your Kepler vs. lefties prediction looks good so far, but do you think his numbers vs righties will improve?
Keith Law: Yes.

Aaron C.: So…of all the players you’ve ever scouted — who actually became successful major leaguers — who had the worst swing as an amateur/minor leaguer?
Keith Law: Pedroia comes to mind. Max effort, kind of straight uphill.

Marc: Listened to the rest of the CHVRCHES album? Overall thoughts?
Keith Law: I’ve heard five songs and none are good.

addoeh: Are the people who defend Heimlich that say “I hope I’m not judged on the worst thing I ever did” subtlely admitting the worst thing they ever did approaches molesting a six year old? I hope not.
Keith Law: It’s amazing how people will tie themselves in knots to defend the kid with nary a thought for the victim.

Ed: Hi Keith. A few years ago I made your Guiness Stout Cupcakes and everyone agreed that they were some of the best we’ve ever had. Recently, when I asked my wife what kind of birthday cake she’d like me to make this year (we have a tradition of making each other’s cakes from scratch), she said the best, moistest chocolate cake possible. After thinking about it, it crossed my mind to use the guiness recipe, but for a traditional 2 layer cake instead of cupcakes. 2 Question for you – any reservations about doing this? And if you did it, what changes would you make to the temp, baking time, recipe, etc. Thank you so much!
Keith Law: Drop the temp 50 degrees. Line the cake pans with parchment circles and then butter them. I think everything else would be fine. Cupcakes really are just mini cakes; the recipes tend to work the same way.

Joe: Heard anything about David Fletcher? The numbers are outstanding
Keith Law: The numbers are in Salt Lake, a great hitters’ park. He had a .316 OBP and .339 SLG last year.

Nate: Will Dwight Smith Jr. hit enough to be a passable everyday OF?
Keith Law: I would bet against it.

Kevin: Good move in your opinion DFA’ing Hanley to make room for Pedroia? Probably means playing time for Moreland and Swihart.
Keith Law: If Swihart plays more, yes. Hanley might be done. After a hot start he fell back to earth with a thud.

Aaron: If kershaw were to opt out after this year what kind of contract would you be comfortable offering him?
Keith Law: That’s more a question about his medical outlook than performance. I’d be fine going $30 million a year if the doctors told me they expected him to stay healthy.

Rob: Based on early season results, which farm system seems to have taken the biggest step forward and which has taken the biggest step back?
Keith Law: I don’t like using early season results to draw broad conclusions.

Adam Trask: It’s not the ball, so can we now blame climate change for the increase in home runs?
Keith Law: It is the ball, right? But MLB says they don’t know why. The drag coefficient dropped. If it’s not the ball, then what is it?

Walker: Any new food recommendations for your trip to Durham?
Keith Law: Had great meals at M Kokko and Luna.

Dr. Bob: The Luke Heimlich story just gets worse. Last year he said he took “responsibility for my conduct as a teenager.” But earlier this month said that absolutely nothing happened and they took the plea deal for reasons. If nothing happened, there was nothing to apologize for a year ago. If something happened, then he’s lying now. An even bigger red flag to me.
Keith Law: Agreed. This all feels like a publicity campaign orchestrated by a lawyer. Another team reached out to me in the last hour to say he’s off their board, so that’s at least two (with Texas, per Gerry Fraley).

Billiam: What was your assessment of Ryan McMahon coming up? Seems like the Rockies have yo-yo’d him around and not given him a fair shot to succeed.
Keith Law: I think he’s an above-average regular, but they won’t play him every day or close to it.

Tony: I know all the SSS caveats still apply, but has something philosophically shifted in Nick Pivetta that has turned him into a throw-in in the Papelbon dump to an actual bona fide mid-rotation or better starter?
Keith Law: He’s not a mid-rotation or better starter given his trouble with LHB.

Joshua: Does H. Ramirez contract vest if he accumulates his at bats with another team?
Keith Law: If someone trades for him or claims him, yes. If he’s released and signs a new deal, no.

SL: Do you remain bullish on Dominic Smiths long term upside as you have in the past?
Keith Law: Yes. But he’s stagnating in AAA now.

Benny Agbayani: You were leading the Nimmo bandwagon for years before anyone else, so kudos for that, but it seems you are less enthused than others now. Do you see any hope for him against lefties? Even his approach seems off against them.
Keith Law: He might improve vs LHB if he faces them more, but the Mets don’t seem inclined to give him more reps. It’s not ideal. I think he can be a half a star – a guy who’s so good vs RHB that, with the right platoon partner, they get star-caliber production in total from one lineup spot but require two players.

Rob: Thoughts on the new At the Gates?
Keith Law: A little predictable and less melodic than the comeback record or Slaughter of the Soul.

Sammy: Have you seen/heard anything about a Jeff McNeil?
Keith Law: He’s 26 in AA.

Greg: Did Denaburg’s recent outing mean he’s likely to sign now?
Keith Law: I would say it means he’s healthy enough that someone will try to draft and sign him. That’s not saying he WILL sign. I don’t know what his bonus demands might be.

Robbie: Do you think at some point the negatives of keeping pujols playing will finally outweigh whatever negatives the angels feel benching him (PR, embarrassment, “disrespect”, money) this season? Or could they be determined to go down with him on the ship? I feel like Moreno is specifically tied to him rolling out there everyday.
Keith Law: With Pujols reaching 3000 and Ohtani making all the headlines, they could probably fade whatever backlash they receive, if any, from releasing the guy. He’s toast.

Aaron C.: Rumors on the west coast that the A’s may be relocating their AAA team to the new Las Vegas ballpark. Can *anything* be done to make a MiLB park less cartoonish regarding offensive numbers it produces?
Keith Law: First thing I’d do out there would be install a humidor. Vegas is dry as hell.

Jeff: Brandon Nimmo now has a career 128 wrc+ in over 400 PAs—this Guy for real?
Keith Law: wRC+ is a great stat, but it doesn’t know if you’ve played full-time or been platooned.

Don: Can Zack Collins be a league average player if he’s not behind the plate?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but maybe he has enough power + patience to pull it off.

Matthew: A first round pick turns into an above average #4 starter. Is the pick a success because he is a regular contributor or a failure because of the low ceiling given the draft position?
Keith Law: That depends on where in the round he was picked. At pick 1, that’s a disappointment. At pick 20, that’s a win.
Keith Law: “Failure” is not a nice word for any player, but especially inapt for an above average #4 starter (so, like a league average starter).

Jo-Nathan: Are you planning to watch the new season of Arrested Development?
Keith Law: Probably. I haven’t read the NYT interview yet – I have it saved to read later today.

Eron: Folty taken a real step this year or expect him his numbers to start declining soon?
Keith Law: I’m buying it.

Bill: You had K. Hayes > Meadows preseason. I never saw an explanation. Care to elaborate ?
Keith Law: If you didn’t see an explanation, then you never read my Pirates farm report. Hayes is an elite defensive 3b. He’s still the better prospect.

Gore : If you can remember, how does Singer compare/contrast to Nola as a prospect out of college?
Keith Law: I remember very well. Nola had better fastball command and a better third pitch.

Pete: Profar seems to be coming on a little bit here. Do you think he could still be a star offensively? Or has his ceiling changed now?
Keith Law: After all that lost time I’m almost afraid to get excited about his little run of success.

Nick: So I understand that you dropped Alex Reyes in your prospect rankings due to the uncertainty around TJ recovery which makes sense. Now that he is healthy and completely dominat. Where would he rank among other starting pitching prospects? First ?
Keith Law: No, not first, not after multiple arm issues. He’s also dominating a level below where he’s pitched before.

Pete: Blake Snell looking like the real deal here as you predicted. Still a #2 in your eyes or potentially higher?
Keith Law: I’ll probably stick with that.

Jeff: What are your thoughts on Grant Lavigne? Where do you think he ends up going?
Keith Law: Day one. Maybe comp round, more likely second. I’ll continue filling in capsules on the remaining top 100 players without them over the next week.

Gest : Do you think the splitter is becoming more popular for American amateur pitchers?
Keith Law: I do not.

Lel: What does your mock schedule look like at this point? How many more until the 4th?
Keith Law: One next week, Weds or Thurs, and one on the morning of the draft itself.

Jon: So far a 6-man rotation has been working for the Angels. At this rate will Angels pitchers be less fatigued come September compared to other teams (i.e. Heaney, Skaggs)? Also Do you think other MLB teams take note and say “hey maybe this works” and implement it in their rotations maybe next year?
Keith Law: I think the experimentation – Angels, Rays – will continue across baseball. Teams are looking for better ways to get more from their pitchers while also limiting injuries/

Butts: Curious on your take on Griffin Roberts. Starter? Heard his change looked pretty okay yesterday.
Keith Law: His change was there in March too. It’s the delivery. There isn’t a starter in the majors who looks like that.

Mark: Did Mackenzie Gore ever have blister problems in HS? Does he project higher than a #3 starter?
Keith Law: He projects as a 1.

Mike: Brad Brach to the Nats for Y Antuna…. Who says no?
Keith Law: The Nats would laugh at that.

Estuve : What possible adjustment do you think there might be for pitchers to make to Meadows? He has looked great at the plate so far.
Keith Law: They could wait a minute.

John: I wrestle with at what point do we allow those who have served their time to fully reintegrate into society and what jobs do we allow them? Heimlich appears to be making it easy to deny rehabilitation given his reversal on responsibility. Where does one draw the line on acceptable jobs for them (and what does that say about the non-convicts who do those jobs) and how much rehabilitation it takes to migrate up the acceptable job scale. What’s the worst thing someone could have done and how much time served before they can professionally play baseball?
Keith Law: If you commit acts of violence, sexual or physical, against children, you don’t get to play pro baseball. It’s not really that difficult. There isn’t any rehabilitation for paraphiliacs.

Ed: I’m really curious about the 6’11 pitcher in the draft. Have we ever seen anyone who could produce such downplane? And what effect would you expect that produce?
Keith Law: We have – but nearly all of them ended up hurt and/or in relief.

Darryl: Due to medicals is T.Beck now a 3-4 round pick? Does Nico Hoerner have a chance to be an early round pick?
Keith Law: Hoerner goes day one. I’ve heard late first but I think somewhere in 31-45 more likely.
Keith Law: Beck … I don’t know what the medicals say. He’s a huge risk having missed a whole year with a back injury, but that’s about all I know.

John: Have you seen or heard anything about Jonathan Hernandez? Is he making a case for T100, or not until he shows it in AA?
Keith Law: You don’t get on to the top 100 because you had two great starts against the same (not that good) lineup.

Darryl: Does Senzel get the phone call before/after the ASB?
Keith Law: He’s out with vertigo. No timetable.

Boots Boots: Luis Alexander Basabe. Is he legit? Everything seems so much better this season so far.
Keith Law: He was also hurt for part of last year, IIRC.

Zac: Where would you rank Mize in the Tigers pitching prospects? I believe you have it as Perez, Burrows, Faedo, and Manning
Keith Law: He’s better than all of those guys. I really think he could pitch in a major league bullpen right now.

Jason: Chris Davis in the running for worst contract in MLB history? 4 more years at $23mil per and an OPS+ of 37 this year!
Keith Law: Ralph thought it was a good deal.

Adam: Is Sean Newcombs hot streak SSS? Not sure where his walk rate stands but the eye test says hes throwing way more first pitch strikes.
Keith Law: He’s really not throwing more strikes; he had one outlier start vs the Mets where he threw 70 out of 97 pitches for strikes, but the rest of the year he’s still down around 61%. Great stuff, below average control. Definitely someone you keep starting while he’s missing bats, but I think he’ll always leave you expecting more given how good the pitches are.

Bernard: Is there a current MLB comp for Eloy Jimenez?
Keith Law: Probably.

YABoySwaggyP: No chance that the White Sox dont take Madrigal if there at 4, right?
Keith Law: Absolutely a chance they don’t. Maybe a good chance they don’t.

Newt: Have you checked out Cobra Kai, the Karate Kid reboot with Macchio and Billy Zabka. Surprisingly, it’s really good.
Keith Law: I’m in the minority of folks my age, but I never loved Karate Kid and don’t share the nostalgia for it that my peers seem to.

j: Thoughts on Garrett Whitlock and/or Erik Swanson of the Yankees?
Keith Law: I was hoping to see Swanson’s next start for Trenton, but he’s in AAA now; I’m going to try to see him on SWB’s homestand after the draft (I can’t go tomorrow because it’s Date Night with my daughter). I
Keith Law: I’ve heard he’s changed a few things and I want to see it for myself.

Steve: Hey Keith, two years ago I bitches at you for saying the Phillies shouldn’t/wouldn’t take Groome number one overall. I will never doubt you again. Having said that, if you were in the Phillies organization, where would you like to see Sixto by the end of this year? With regards to stats and level in the minors.
Keith Law: Double-A is fine. I would love to see him stretch a little more out within games, but after he had some minor arm soreness in the spring they may not want to push him.

Jay: KC’s top prospects look good so far this year. Do you see any of Matias, Pratto, Lee, or Melendez as top 100 guys next year?
Keith Law: Lee would be today – he barely missed the cut. I’m not sure what you’re looking at when you say Pratto or Matias look good, though; both have OBPs in the .310s and Matias is still striking out at an untenable rate.

Mark: How close was Grant Little to making the top 100?
Keith Law: He wasn’t a consideration. (He’s a draft-eligible sophomore at Texas Tech, for folks who don’t know the name.)

Zac: Does a team draft Luke Heimlich?
Keith Law: Someone will.

Tom: Just saw Ashcroft perform last week – he was amazing. It’s too bad bands like the Verve can’t make it work.
Keith Law: Their one comeback album before they called it quits was good even without any standout singles.

Chimmy: Know anything about Trent Deveaux?
Keith Law: I do. As does everyone who read about him in my Angels org report in January.

Joe: Your insightful mock and earlier comments aside, would Kelenic be a reach at 2?
Keith Law: No, not IMO. Not my choice at 2 but not a reach. At 1, over Mize, yes.

YABoySwaggyP: Would Seth Beer be a good value pick for the White Sox at 46?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d be good with that, but I bet he’s gone by then.

Neil: I will use Vlad as an example here, but realise in his case this question may be flawed. But what do you do with a prospect that has a tool that is major league ready, but still needs to develop elsewhere. In the case of Vlad, are you hurting his development as a hitter by keeping him in AA where he is dominating, even though he still needs experience there for other parts of his game?
Keith Law: It depends on your long-term plan for the player – and you need to have one. If you think he can really learn that position, then you get him somewhere where he can work on it, with the best coach you have for that skill. If you think, as I do, that Vlad probably never plays 3b as a regular, then just call him up and make him a DH.

Alec: Why is it that most people ignore the existential threat that Donald Trump brings by being president? From talking to a lot of people, it is as if most of them have this built in idea in their brains that everything will turn out okay in the end. I think this stems from religion, but it is scary wherever it stems from.
Keith Law: I see, at best, a decade of trying to undo the damage done just in the last eighteen months. And it could be MUCH worse.

DaveAlden53: The Dodgers lead the NL West in run differential and are back to within 3.5 games of the lead. Is the ship righted or is it still leaking below the waterline from injuries?
Keith Law: Can’t it be both? I think it’s kind of both.

Jordan: Should I take the significantly K lower rate from Austin Beck as a sign of his progress?
Keith Law: It’s lower, and that’s good, since he seemed like a guy who might punch out like crazy with the jump to full-season ball.
Keith Law: BTW, Jordon Adell’s contact rate in his first month-plus in full-season ball has been amazing. No matter what else he did, I figured he’d swing and miss a lot more.

JaKob: Hey Keith, do teams track the amount of pitches thrown opposed to the number of actual innings they throw.. Seems like the # of innings could be skewed for a guy that labors through innings and throws say 100 pitches in a 5 inning game.. He would be getting more work than a guy that averages 80 pitches per inning (however, it’d appear they pitched the same amount if you just looked at IP)
Keith Law: Of course they do.

Pat D: Keith, I’ve said before I’m not on Twitter for any number of reasons. Lately when I’ve read your Twitter feed, I’ve been filled with notions of joining Twitter just to argue with people who comment on yours (all due respect, stick to baseball guy comes to mind). Please reassure me that such an action would be a very silly thing to do.
Keith Law: Twitter is essential to my job and my career as a whole. It is also a massive source of aggravation, especially since they still don’t take their own policies on harassment, abuse, or copyrights seriously at all.

Kevin: Where would Tirso Ornelas go in this draft? Love his swing
Keith Law: Back of the first.

PhilW: Keith – have you had a chance to see Chris Paddack pitch at Lake Elsinore? Seems to be fully recovered from TJ and putting up ridiculous K/BB ratios. Does he have a chance to move way up the prospect rankings or are there any factors limiting his ceiling?
Keith Law: I saw him throw a sim game in March and raved about him then.

Greg: I get that Gorman’s power is the reason he’s in the top 10. But that’s the only thing he does well, right? Is that really worthy of a top 10 pick?
Keith Law: He’s not a slug; he’s a decent athlete who could probably become a solid enough defender at third with work. You’re really underrating him.

Jordan: Does Virginia ruin good prospects?
Keith Law: Pitchers, yes.

Paul: Are you a believer in the Mets Peter Alonso, if so, why not shift him to LF like the Phillies have done with Hoskins and leave 1B to D. Smith who is the better fielder at 1B?
Keith Law: Have you ever laid eyes on Alonso? Smith is the better defender but that doesn’t mean you can just put Alonso wherever you want to.

Moe Mentum: If you’re a prospective college student who is undecided on a major, is an Ivy League school a good or bad place to “figure it out”?
Keith Law: I can only speak to Harvard, and it’s a terrible place for that. We had to declare at the end of our freshman year, and I certainly wasn’t ready at that point.

Brian: Being on below average team in a below average conference is killer for a prospect. Owen Miller of Illinois State had a fantastic year and he is nowhere to be found on any prospect lists. Similar to how Paul Dejong was overlooked.
Keith Law: Dejong wasn’t overlooked. He went in the 4th round. But yes, playing bad competition hurts your stock, and Miller hasn’t posted a good walk rate or shown any power in a really bad conference this year.

Roger: Since you are higher than the industry on Noah Naylor, what do you think his ceiling could be if everything clicks? Perhaps a Devers type?
Keith Law: Nothing at all like Devers. I think Naylor’s an above-average regular at third who hits for high average with some pop and value on the bases. Devers is a fucking monster.

Tom: What do you think of Spencer Torkelson? Can he be a guy?
Keith Law: Not really – not like the HR total would imply, at least.

Dan: Most likely to fall in the draft due to signability concerns?
Keith Law: Cecconi would have gone top 10-15 if he’d been healthy & was signable up there.

Rum Guy: Knowing you’re a rum guy, you recommend dark & stormy or what else?
Keith Law: That’s fine if you have a blended dark rum. Better rums are for sipping neat.

Cletus: How much of Giolito’s struggles are related to the Nats’ changing his mechanics, and how much is he just “not the guy the scouting report claimed 4 years ago” ?
Keith Law: He was that guy in March. If his velocity wasn’t back at that point, then your snark might have a kernel of truth to it.

UGW: Jakson Reetz finally becoming a *guy*? Still just 22.
Keith Law: I was a big fan out of the draft, but I saw him here two weeks ago and I don’t think so. It’s just 100 PA, and it’s really all walks – he’s working the count but the impact isn’t there.

Alec: Thoughts on Tomi Lauren incident?
Keith Law: She’s awful. I think throwing water on her just feeds her victim complex. And I don’t know what it accomplished.

PD: Where does Moniak rank in the all time #1 draft busts?
Keith Law: He’s 20. Let’s hold off on that, shall we?
Keith Law: OK, sorry I can’t get to more questions – there are hundreds unanswered in the queue – but I do have a few other things to do today and am hoping to take most of tomorrow off. Thank you as always for reading. Stay tuned for another mock next week, either Wednesday or Thursday (please don’t ask me Weds where it is, it’ll run whenever my editors want to run it), and one more on draft day. I’ll also tweet/post to FB when I add more notes to the top 100. Have a safe Memorial Day weekend!