Klawchat 3/21/18.

Starting at 1 pm ET.

My latest board game review at Paste Magazine covers Sakura, a new game from Reiner Knizia with a high screw-your-opponents aspect to it. I also joined Joe Posnanski and Michael Schur on the Poscast this week to talk season preview and hot fruit but mostly hot fruit.

Keith Law: When expectations make no sense … Klawchat.

Aaron Gershoff: Thank you for not sticking to baseball – one dimensional people suck. How many execs ask you for your advice on players? Obviously you have contacts all over baseball, just wondering if it goes both ways.
Keith Law: I talk to execs & scouts often about players and we share opinions in both directions. Whether that counts as ‘advice’ is kind of up to you. I’d rather not be any more specific.

Jeremy: Can you help sort out the Braves SP stable of SP Folty, Newcomb, Wisler, Gohara, Sims, Allard, Soroka, Wright & Touki? Thanks Klaw!
Keith Law: I have a feeling the natural attrition of starters will sort it out before I do. I think Wright is the top guy in that list, with the highest probability of remaining a starter, and Sims or Wisler at the bottom. Gohara, Soroka, and Allard are all on that starter/reliever bubble.

Sean: Keith, at this point how high can you see Connor Scott rising in the draft? Is the top 10 possible, a la Austin Beck?
Keith Law: At this point, no. That’s not to say it can’t happen come June, but I haven’t heard anything like that on Scott. By this time last year Beck was already getting that sort of hype.

Max: Hi Keith. Why Willy Adames is so high ranked in prospect lists? Is it the sum of the parts? Because I can’t see a single tool that stands out.
Keith Law: Doesn’t have to have a standout tool to be an above-average regular. He’s also hit well for his age at every level, including AAA, and projects to play somewhere on the dirt.

Moe Mentum: Is there anything you *don’t* like about being an Ivy League graduate? Maybe things like loftier expectations, presumed snobbishness, or something else that a prospective student might not consider?
Keith Law: My academic experience there wasn’t great; classes are large, and you’re taught more by grad students than by professors, so while I can say, for example, I took a class from Martin Feldstein (one-time head of the CEA under Reagan), it’s not like I ever got with 100 meters of the guy. It’s also probably not an ideal environment for a student with untreated anxiety, which I was. Being a graduate, however, is mostly upside. I get the occasional asshat who thinks any time I mention my alma mater I’m bragging, but that’s the internet for you.

Patrick: Good afternoon Keith! Which spring training locale is better suited for you to scout, AZ or FLA?
Keith Law: Arizona all day every day. One hotel for the entire month. Florida for me is often a new hotel each night. And Arizona has better food, better weather, and better roads. This may flip when Arizona runs out of water in three to five years, though.

Sean: Keith, Have we reached a point where the only way we’ll see a HS RHP taken 1-1 is if that player agrees to discount his value significantly enough to mitigate his risk profile?
Keith Law: What you will need is a prep RHP who checks all the boxes but has little/no interest in college or a commitment to a strong program. The biggest obstacle for recent top prep right-handers has been perceived price tags.

Deke: Would you consider your minor league scouting of Eric Hosmer to be a hit or a miss? He is a bona fide major leaguer with legitimate skill, but this feels at least multiple steps below what you and others envisioned for him.
Keith Law: Probably neither; he’s had stretches where he’s played like everyone expected, and longer stretches where he hasn’t.

George: Torres to AAA isn’t completely unreasonable, right?
Keith Law: I thought all along this was the right move. I am less enamored with demoting Andujar in favor of major leaguers who are marginally better.

Camden: How would you describe MacKenzie Gore’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Number one starter.

EJ: Obviously the spring is a tiny sample size, but if you were the Angels would you start Ohtani in AAA or in the bigs?
Keith Law: Don’t care about spring stats, as you know. If he’s not able to figure out this delivery issue – I wrote he’s not repeating it and getting to his release point – before Opening Day, I might leave him in extended spring training to get some one-on-one work in controlled situations. I think sending him to Salt Lake is kind of a bad idea all around, other than that the Buzz’s ownership would be ecstatic.

ScottyD in Snowy Malvern, PA: The Blue Jays – Are they trying to contend in 2018 or just holding the fort until the new kids are ready in 2019 like Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Gurriel, Alford et al.?
Keith Law: I can’t see them contending this year; they’d need exceptional health across the board plus several breakout years. I think they’re holding the fort, as you say, for Vlad Jr. and Bichette. I don’t think Gurriel belongs in that last sentence, though.

WhiteSoxAndy: Will Michael Kopech be up this year or will he spend the entire year in the minors?
Keith Law: My guess is he debuts after the All-Star Break.

Seth: I’m happy that Alex Cobb got market value, considering all the players who had to take much less than they deserve. But what in the world are the Orioles doing? Did they have their heads in a ditch and miss the memo on “collusion”?
Keith Law: I liked the deal. As long as he’s healthy, that’s a contract with trade value. He’ll give them some innings they need – their rotation is bad, potentially awful – and there’s still some performance upside here. I don’t love them giving up a pick, but otherwise I think it’s fair value for a good pitcher who should get better.

Andrew: Outside of Acuna, which of the Braves’ prospects has impressed most in Spring Training?
Keith Law: I’ll be in Atlanta camp Sunday and/or Monday.

Mike: How will Anthopolous impact Atlanta’s draft tendencies, if at all? With Bridges still being there, will they still lean towards upside, high school players, or does Anthopolous have a different reputation?
Keith Law: That was Anthopoulos’ preference in Toronto – they aimed high, went for the best player available, took some calculated gambles. I don’t expect a huge shift; if there’s a change, it might be that they’re less likely to take someone like Kyle Muller, who was more stuff and size at age 18 than athleticism or potential upside in command/refinement.

Travis: What are your thoughts on Greyson Jenista?
Keith Law: Weather permitting I will see him in about ten days. I hear he and Bohm are potential end of the first round guys, maybe a little better as college bats always run up the board on draft day.

Greg: Any recent draft buzz inside the top 10? Guys moving up or down?
Keith Law: Too early for that.

Mr. Nerdstrom: If you had to guess, which of the 30 bench coaches in MLB is most likely to land a managing gig in the next couple of seasons?
Keith Law: I doubt I could name even 3 current bench coaches in the majors.

Greg: Thinking about Atlanta’s international limitations, is there anywhere they can shift that money that would make sense and still benefit the organization?
Keith Law: Only if there’s an unrestricted international free agent out there. I guess if Yusei Kikuchi is posted next winter, he’d be a candidate.

Slick Rick Hahn: Giolito looking promising, Fulmer… not so much. Who’s spring means more to you, Giolito’s improvement or Fulmer’s complete lack of command?
Keith Law: Giolito’s stuff improvement means more than his results. I’ve said since he was a sophomore that I don’t believe Fulmer can start. Nothing here has changed.

Preston: What are reasonable expectations for Tyler Chatwood this year? I don’t want the only expectation to be simply “better than Lackey,” but that’s where I am right now. And he’ll at least surpass that.
Keith Law: 150-160 innings of a 4ish ERA and 2 WAR. I know teams that lean heavily on Statcast info believe he has upside based on that, but I think he has other question marks, like control or lack of an effective change, that remain.

Dan: Do college coaches hide player birthdays from prospective teams (or at least not make them publicly available) for guys who are potential draft eligible sophs? Or is there too much coverage now for this info to be effectively hidden?
Keith Law: You can’t hide that info. Even if they tried, the players’ advisers would get it out there.

Boris: breakout players article coming soon?
Keith Law: I believe I answered that with the opening quote.

BRIAN: If you were the Yankee brass, would you consider moving Sanchez from behind the plate? No DH at bats are really available. His bat is probably the best on the team. His catching is “average” at best. Wouldnt the team be better off with him playing 150 games rather than 120 and being beaten up?
Keith Law: If they find a better option, yes, I would, for the reason you cite at the end – an extra 120 or so PA plus reduced injury risk. However, I’d like to see Greg Bird show he can play a remotely capable 1B before giving Sanchez the DH spot.

Alex: What’s the last thing you cooked sous vide?
Keith Law: Duck, I think. Been a few weeks since I busted that out with all my travel and dealing with this weather nonsense. I’ve pushed back three trips now due to weather – two snowstorms here, and one rainout in Georgia.

JP: If the Red Sox come to a roster crunch when Pedroia comes off the DL, would you rather trade/DFA: Leon, Swihart, Vasquez, or Holt? I’d vote Holt, if only because Sale supposedly likes having Leon catch for him.
Keith Law: Probably Holt. Nice bench player, will definitely be claimed if they just waive him, but now I’m punting on Swihart.

Mike: Sean Newcomb looking good this spring with limiting his walks/balls thrown. I can’t help but thinking he could break out this season. What should my realistic expectations be?
Keith Law: Realistic expectations would require ignoring his spring training stats and expecting his control to be where it was last year. (One anecdote in favor of my argument about ST stats: Newcomb’s best start of the spring, on 3/12, came against a Phillies lineup with Adam Rosales at 1b, Pedro Florimon in LF, and Jesmuel Valentin at 3b.)

Ben: Did you get to see Jesus Lazardo in AZ? Is it unreasonable to think that Lazardo could surpass AJ Puk as a prospect by the end of this season? Thanks.
Keith Law: I didn’t see him, but no, I don’t think that’s reasonable to think. Puk is the #2 LH prospect in baseball, and he’s been continuously improving since he signed.

Ryan: I’m a Mets fan who’s interested in seeing how Dom and Rosario develop. Putting aside the issues the team must have with the latter, what do you think fair projections are for both if they are given a chance to play regularly?
Keith Law: The team seems to have weird issues with both, but I would guess Rosario would hit .270-280 with low walk & strikeout rates and maybe 8-10 homers, adding value on defense; while Smith would be more .280/.340/.420 sort of range. I looked at ZiPS for Smith, and Dan has him .272/.324/.430 with 20 HR in 156 g. That seems very reasonable to me too.

HugoZ: To stop the service time games, how about making 90 days on the 25-man anytime during a season be the definition of a “year” of service time?
Keith Law: I believe if you do that you’ll see a lot of guys with 89 days of service each year. Wherever you set the bar, you will see teams respond to it in kind.

Jr: Do teams monitor what other teams are doing in player development?
Keith Law: Yes but player development is much more opaque than scouting (to other teams or to us).

Adam B: If Nick Senzel plays full time at SS or 2B how much does his value increase? Do you think he can handle playing SS?
Keith Law: I think he’ll be well below average at short and it might offset the entire positional gain.

Chris: Tyler Wade could be the Yankees opening day 2nd baseman! That was less of a question than a statement. He reminds me a lot of Brett Gardner, is that a fair comp?
Keith Law: I don’t see that. I like Wade, but he’s not similar to Gardner.

Zach: Keith: long-time reader, first time ask-er. Can Nick Senzel handle the switch to 2B defensively? I assume if so, then this raises his profile as his bat plays up there.
Keith Law: The positional adjustment for 2b isn’t much different, if at all, than that for 3b, I think, so while I believe he’ll be able to handle 2b, it probably doesn’t change his value right now.

Mike B: This may need too detailed an answer for a chat, but I had a question about the overall effect of “tanking.” While tanking may be the best option for a team that cant compete, can we reach the point where too many teams see tanking as the best option and it begins to turn off fans? The optimal course of action for a team, may hurt the league as a whole if too many teams see that as the best option. Do you think we are close to that point?
Keith Law: No, but I think we are reaching the point where the media have convinced a lot of fans that tanking is more prevalent in baseball than it actually is.

Johnny B. Savage: Griffin Canning was reportedly sitting 94-96 yesterday in a three inning stint. *IF* this is true, could be go from a 4/5 to a 3/4 in the future?
Keith Law: No, because I doubt he can hold that velocity as a starter and stay healthy, given what teams disliked about his medicals before the draft.

Jr: I think state funded elections (no outside contributions), and drawing districts with a bipartisan panel to represent districts fairly would fix most of the problems in this country – right or wrong?
Keith Law: Who funds those elections? (I mean, taxpayers do, but they won’t like it.) And who decides how much each candidate gets?

Adam B: Would you move Suarez back to SS and keep Senzel playing 3rd?
Keith Law: Yes, but that ship appears to have sailed.

Dan410: On a scale of 1 to Trump, how stupid is Liriano starting instead of Daniel Norris?
Keith Law: I’m OK with starting Norris in the bullpen for now, but he should end the year with 20+ starts.

Darrell: Is Jordan Hicks projected to be a starter?
Keith Law: He has the potential to be a very good starter. He could also never find enough command for that.

Chloe: What are your thoughts on the WBC? I love it but it seems like a number of participants had crummy years afterward. When else could it be played that might have less of a negative impact? A week off for the All-Star break and a quick tournament?
Keith Law: I would much prefer that All-Star Break WBC schedule to the current one, which is also too spread out. I do like the event for global marketing; the US audience doesn’t care, but they also don’t matter as much because baseball is already popular here.

Rob: What are your thoughts on FIREPOWER? I never would have guessed that a bunch of guys nearing 70 could put out a metal album that good from beginning to end.
Keith Law: Oh, God, no, I thought it was incredibly disappointing. After that lead single it’s just so tame.

ScottyD in Snowy Malvern, PA: Concerning Houston’s OF uberprospect Kyle Tucker – is a mid-2018 ETA too early?
Keith Law: No, I think on merit he’d probably make the club right now, so late June is about right.

John: Thanks for the chat Keith! Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer have both put up solid numbers this spring, do you see either progressing past a 4/5 starter ceiling, or are their numbers due to the level of competition faced in ST?
Keith Law: Probably both back-end starters, yes. Again, ST stats are not useful.

BRIAN: Thanks for the chats! They are the highlight of my week. Boring “salary” question. My understanding is the salary cap amount is the AAV of the total contract. So why wouldnt a team (Yankees/Dodgers/Sox) up against the cap sign a player (example of Moustakis earlier this off season) for 5 years – $32million – with $20m first season and 3 miliion in years 2-5… with an opt out after year one. The salary cap hit is only 6 million this year (with the rest put over to the following year following the inevitable opt out — and after a year of getting “under” the cap)? Is this not allowed??
Keith Law: No, I believe that is not allowed. And probably a good way to get fined, too.

DR: Matt Olson’s ratio of HR to doubles (24:2 in the bigs) has to normalize, right? Is he more or less a Chris/Khris Davis clone (guy that hits many homers, low average, with the occasional high contact season where he’s an all star)?
Keith Law: I don’t think that high contact season is in there. Has years where he’s an average regular, and years where he’s not. Chris Davis is a fair comp, but Olson is less athletic and won’t add value on defense.

Sally fan: Any minor league teams that you are looking forward to seeing this upcoming season? Based on presumed rosters, of course
Keith Law: I won’t look at that until camp breaks, sorry. No point in guessing now.

Marlon Bundo: Am I crazy for thinking Soroka can develop into 1/2? How do you account for maturity when evaluating a pitcher like him who is maximizing his stuff at an early age?
Keith Law: Crazy, no, but I disagree. If he’s that mature right now, then you’re saying he has less growth potential.

Mountain Man: Read an interview that the Nats are starting Kieboom and Soto back in Hagerstown to start the season. That seems a little conservative to me…they should be up in Potomac rather quickly, right?
Keith Law: Potomac’s field is kind of terrible. They skipped Harper over that level entirely because the outfield conditions were so poor.

Zach: What does Blake Rutherford have to do to get himself back on the prospect/top 100 radar? Is it as simple as….hit?
Keith Law: Not just hit, but have the ball actually go somewhere when he hits.

Sean: Mitch Haniger or Mex Kepler: who has the bigger year offensively?
Keith Law: One of them is in my breakouts column. I hope I picked the right one.

Ryan: What would you have done differently if you were Alderson this offseason? Not everything, but are there a couple of different avenues you would have explored/
Keith Law: Certainly would not have signed Gonzalez for anything. If they wanted another starter, they should have signed Lynn rather than Vargas, given what those two guys signed for.

Evan: Is a .360 OBP with 20 HR unattainable for Jeimer Candelario? Does putting him in the two hole make sense for Detroit?
Keith Law: I’m taking the under on that OBP.

Dan410: Do you think Flaherty was ready to break camp in the rotation? Or does he need some more seasoning in Triple-A?
Keith Law: I’m fine with the demotion, but also think he can be a fine fifth starter right now.

Chris: It looks like Marco Gonzales is finally getting back from TJ. What kind of starter do you think he can be for the Mariners?
Keith Law: The last I’d heard on him his stuff was still down this spring.

JK: You often point out that small sample sizes don’t change your perspective on a player. Some of the June draftees shot up the rankings with a small sample post signing (Adell, Hiura). What’s the difference?
Keith Law: There is no difference. The change in ranking has little to nothing to do with performances. After they sign, they’re seen by new sets of scouts and executives, and more information (e.g., Hiura didn’t need/have TJ) becomes available.

Brad: What do you think of Dipoto’s approach of dealing high-ceiling, younger minor league players for higher-floor, closer to MLB-ready players?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t be my personal approach.

The Bilmo: I always prefer to see the film before reading the book. I do’t have to compare the film to the production in my head. You?
Keith Law: Other way around. Book first. Book is nearly always better anyway.

Matt: Hey Keith. What are your thoughts on Keibert Ruiz what does he project for longterm?
Keith Law: If he stays at C, he’s a potential star. Fair chance he hits his way off the position or isn’t good enough back there to be a regular. I feel pretty confident he’s a regular somewhere.

Rhys: As of this moment, in what order would you rank Mize/McClanahan/Rollison/Singer?
Keith Law: Mize, McClanahan, Rolison, several other college starters, Singer.
Keith Law: The Singer thing confuses the hell out of me.

Thaddeus: I’ve heard you mention your favorite thing in the Anova is chicken thighs at 4-5 hours if I remember correctly. What do you use as the temp? And what do you do after? Hard sear in a cast iron or a grill or something else?
Keith Law: 165 for 5 hours, chill, hard sear in a carbon steel or cast iron skillet. If you chill them, the juices in the bag will congeal and you can easily peel that off to form the base for a sauce.

Guy: Any good solo game recommendations?
Keith Law: Friday. Onirim. Pretty much any coop game, like Pandemic. I’ve played Agricola’s solo mode on the app; I think all of Rosenberg’s games offer a solo option (and Fields of Arle is really a solo game), but the setup is a bit long for playing by yourself.

steve: Looks like the Sox are going to carry Swihart on the opening day roster, but not use him at catcher. He appears headed for utility role but has never played infield and limited time in OF. How do you see this working out?
Keith Law: I’m hoping he just gets regular ABs and hits again like he did before he was first called up.

Larry: I heard the Tigers are interviewing HS players to see if they will sign at 1-1 for a steep discount. Do you think that is a wise strategy for this draft?
Keith Law: They are exploring options, but hardly committed in any way to doing this. The Dbacks did the same, and even offered steep discounts to a few players (Garrett Whitley was one), but ended up taking one of the consensus top players.

Richard: Will we ever see pitchers like Greg Maddux return? The ones who relied on control, changing speeds. Instead of simply trying to blow away hitters and blowing out arms along the way.
Keith Law: They’re not gone. Kyle Hendricks is certainly in that mold – strike thrower who gets groundballs – as is Keuchel. Neither throws hard, both live on the bottom of the zone.

Chris: Can Nimmo play a league average defensive CF? Or is he just bad out there?
Keith Law: Average, maybe. I doubt more.

Avery: Is this year the year for Addison Russell? Or is becoming this is who he is? I know he’s only 24 but he has a career .312 OBP in the bigs….I would have more likely guessed that to be his BA.
Keith Law: Shoulder injury last year; not sure if that was all or part of his decline, or not at all, but I think you have to consider the possibility it restricted him.

Lark11: Given the organization’s historical difficulty in developing impact starting pitching, shouldn’t the Reds be overhauling how it scouts and develops pitchers? Do you view Hunter Greene as having increased injury/development risk because he was drafted by the Reds?
Keith Law: I do not, and I don’t think they’ve had chronic issues with scouting and developing pitchers in recent years.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: O’s Fans: With Cobb, we have a good rotation now!
Reality is?
Keith Law: With Cobb, you have two good starters now.

Chris Mays: Do you have a take on Acuña being sent down? It seems to me that if there was truly nothing wrong with it, then AA could tell the truth about why he was sent down.
Keith Law: You can’t send down a player to manipulate service time. The player & union will file a grievance, they’ll win, and he’ll get the service time anyway. So you have to lie. They did the right thing for the team and the wrong thing for the sport. He’ll be back in mid-April.

wade: how old do you think pujols is?
Keith Law: I think he’s older than he claims to be. It would fit the last few years of his career, certainly.

Stephanie: Do you see Mateo becoming a 15HR/30 steals CF by 2019?
Keith Law: 15 HR might be high; 30 steals is almost certainly low.

Peeeeete: How would you predict the Cubs starters to finish in WAR? Q-Darvish-Lester-Hendricks-Chatwood?
Keith Law: Q, Yu, Hendricks, Lester, Chatwood.

Seany: Follow up on Ohtani- there was probably a behind closed doors agreement that he wouldn’t be sent to AAA & would DH. Let’s say he flops at hitting and they go back on their word and decide to abandon it… Does Ohtani have the option to return to NPB even though the Ham fighters were paid $20mm for him?
Keith Law: I suppose he could just walk away, but that’s not going to happen. My guess, entirely my own speculation, is that they’ll let him fail at DH and hope he realizes he needs to pitch full-time.

Dan410: Agree or disagree with the Rangers’ decision to keep Profar strictly in the infield? Thought it was weird since LF is the job that’s totally wide open. (I also like how Profar>Odor has not even been a discussion)
Keith Law: I hadn’t seen or heard that; I thought the plan was for him to be a bench player who gets ABs wherever. I love the kid but he has to produce now to earn regular playing time. If he has a solid April and looks like he did pre-injury or even right when he came back, they can always give him time in LF.

Andrew: Outside of Tatis, which of the Padres’ prospects has impressed most in Spring Training?
Keith Law: I had two lengthy posts on their prospects last week.

Poor Man Quisenberry: Have you seen Nander de Sedas from Montverde Academy HS. What are your thoughts on him?
Keith Law: True story: I was supposed to see him today, about five minutes from now. Instead I am in my kitchen watching snow come down at about an inch an hour, waiting to fire up the snowblower.

Matt S: Hey Keith what are your thoughts on Blaze Jordan and when do you as a scout start to turn your attention to him?
Keith Law: Christ. I had to look this up – he’s 15? A 2021 kid? Call me in two years.

RSO: Do you think acquiring Drury and Walker makes Andujar and Torres more expendable in a deal for say, Chris Archer, Michael Fulmer or another top flight starter?
Keith Law: That may be their plan, but I don’t think so, especially not for Torres.

SPG: You ever been to Venice, Rome, or Paris? Wife & I are going for the first time next month and are in dire need of restaurant recommendations.
Keith Law: I have, but nearly 20 years ago.

mike sixel: Nick Gordon….future second basemam? SS in MN this year, in about 4-6 weeks? SS in the future? Traded?
Keith Law: I believe he can play SS, but they seem to view him internally as a 2b.

Kevin S.: With all the talk about how pitiful minor league salaries are, could a team *choose* to pay them more than the current scale? A draftee or a IFA might be willing to take a smaller bonus if he knew he would be making $40,000/year instead of $8,000/year.
Keith Law: I don’t know if anything prohibits spending more on non-40 man salaries – we had some negotiating room with them back when I was with the Jays and did a few of those phone calls, boy, was that ever fun – but if you promised it before the draft to a player you’d violate the rules. Atlanta was accused of doing this with Drew Waters, allegedly offering him a car in exchange for taking less in his bonus. (The car, if it was ever promised, never materialized.)

RSO: RAB boldly predicted that Aaron Hicks could have a 7+WAR. Crazy or realistic?
Keith Law: That seems high but I’m also a longtime believer in his ability and a 5 WAR season seems entirely reasonable if he can just stay healthy.

Ryan: if nimmo can stay healthy, is he capable of putting up good numbers?
Keith Law: He can be very useful vs RHP.

Chris: Have you noticed any players getting draft helium yet this early in the season?
Keith Law: Grayson Rodriguez in Texas is a big name right now, mid-90s FB from a prep RHP. Noah Naylor was juuust outside my top 30 a month ago, but I think if the draft were today he’d go top 20. Gunnar Hoglund has cleaned up his delivery somewhat so he’s not so cross-body and he’s somewhere in day one at least. Still a lot of HS kids who haven’t started playing yet, though.

Chris: If (big if…) Hunter Harvey can stay healthy, what do you see as a logical outcome? Number 2 starter?
Keith Law: Yes, but he’s yet to have one calendar year in pro ball without an injury.

mike sixel: Would you consider giving up baseball if they succeed in getting Congress to pass a law allowing them to continue screwing over minor league players? What would ownership have to do to get you to stop watching, or decrease?
Keith Law: Giving up, no. I’ll just continue to advocate for players.

Brad: Is there any concern with sous vide and plastic safety (BPA/phthalates/etc.)?
Keith Law: No, because I’m not a chemophobe.

Aaron, Texas: KLAW, just started watching The Wire, and Season 2 was a slight drag. Was that the worst season?
Keith Law: I think S5 was the worst, as it felt very rushed.

Tom from Newark, DE: Keith, will the Blue Rocks have anyone that’ll make it worth me making the 10 minute drive up I-95 to see?
Keith Law: I assume Khalil Lee will be here, at least, although I don’t know that for sure. He’d be worth it – arguably their #1 prospect. Viloria should get here at some point too.

Dave: Do the Yankees seem to be a little overhyped coming into the season? Not that they won’t be good, but aside from Bird is there any regular you’d take even-money being better than last year, health issues excepted?
Keith Law: I talked about this with Joe and Mike on the Poscast that went up today – you can paint a realistic scenario that has them worse than last year, without stretching your logic at all. The rotation seems very volatile to me, in health and performance, and I believe Mike pointed out that nobody important got hurt last year.

MJ: What kind of line do you think Colin Moran could put up this year? Do you believe the swing changes he made in the minors last year will allow him to hit 25-30 HRs in the majors?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 20 HR guy with a regular baseball. With this juiced ball, everyone’s a 30 HR guy.

Josh: Hi Keith, Curious if you ever talk to players you’re scouting, majors or otherwise, when you go on your scouting trips…or if you’d even be allowed. Thanks!
Keith Law: I am allowed but prefer to talk to them afterwards if need be. They don’t really even need to know I’m there. Having 40 or 50 scouts there is pressure enough.

Andrew: I’m probably going to get killed for this by you and your fellow readers but weed isn’t harmless. Weed is what triggered my friend’s manic episode (already had been diagnosed with Bipolar disorder)and why I can’t never know what it’s like to smoke it as I also have bipolar disorder.
Keith Law: Marijuana can trigger short-term psychosis in some people … but it’s still harmless for the majority of folks.

Luis Castillo: Based on Fangraphs pitch values, it seems like I found a third pitch in my slider, no?
Keith Law: No.

Larry: What is the difference between Ohtani and Acuna? Both players could theoretically be held down for extra service time. Shouldn’t Acuna be ticked about the manipulation for his clock and the assumption that Ohtani will not face the same issue?
Keith Law: The Angels are trying to win this year and Ohtani would, in theory, be part of that.

Kak: Is Sheldon neuse the real deal for the As?
Keith Law: I think he’s a very good player, not a shortstop at all, maybe a great 2b/3b/lf type, chance for a regular. Good feel to hit, very good instincts, makes up for limited tools.

Jimmy : Astros farm system top 5?
Keith Law: No. I ranked systems back in January and they were 13th.

Chris: How nuts are the Os for paying (above?) full freight on Cobb on March 20th?
Keith Law: I do not believe they paid at or above full freight.

Kak: What are your thoughts on piscotty this season?
Keith Law: I’m rooting for him. I do think last year was an outlier and that he’ll hit for more average this year; the park switch hurts his power, but I believe everything else will improve.

Chuck: If you’re the A’s, do you bring up Puk in April or May?
Keith Law: I’d rather have him in the big leagues on April 20th than in the PCL.

Corey: tanking isn’t as prevalent as the media makes it seem but how many teams in your estimation are pursuing a tank or tank-adjacent strategy this season ?
Keith Law: Are the Padres tanking if they signed Hosmer to that silly deal? The Phillies with Arrieta? The Marlins, yes, for sure. I don’t think the Rays are tanking, per se, but if you want to argue they’re tank-adjacent I’ll concede the point. The Tigers are way out. The A’s, probably. That’s 4-6 teams. It’s not 10.

James: Draft – could you see MLB go to a draft lottery to try to lessen the advantage of all out tanking?
Keith Law: I could see that, but I don’t believe it’ll solve the issue. Paying minor leaguers and 0-2 players more would do so.

TK: My wife and I are about to strat playing SeaFall with some friends. I can’t remember: did you ever do a full review of it?
Keith Law: I did not. Really liked the concept, but didn’t finish the full play, and I know there was concern that whoever got the lead early would end up winning.

Slick Rick Hahn: Anything new on Lou Rob? I know you were the “low guy” on him when the Sox signed him, just wondering if your opinion has changed at all. Obviously, being hurt now can’t help.
Keith Law: I was supposed to see him two days after he got hurt. I’ll go see him when he’s in Kannapolis or wherever they start him.

Jonathan: Is Shane McClanahan the current favorite for top pick in this year’s draft?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think there’s a favorite, certainly nobody with more than a 40% chance. Mize probably has the best odds of anyone, but that still doesn’t make him the favorite, IMO.

Sean: If Potomac’s field is so bad, why play there?
Keith Law: They’ve been trying to get a new stadium in NoVA for a few years.

Andrew T: If you were GM of Marlins would you have handled situation differently?
Keith Law: That was an ownership call – dump salary, take less in return.

mets homer: realistic expectations on Marcos Molina? Was a top tier prospect before TJ…. still a rotation piece in the future?
Keith Law: Was not a top tier prospect before, and is probably a reliever.

Jared: As a Brewer fan, I love what Stearns has done so far. I also like the Cain and Yelich acquisitions. With that said, doesn’t it seem that the Brewers’ roster is poorly constructed this year?
Keith Law: I think they need another starter from outside the org.

JR: Did you ever get around to watching Man in High Castle on Amazon? I recently read and really enjoyed the book and tried to give the show a go. I made it one episode. Snooze fest. Was bummed because I thought a show expanding on that world had so much potential.
Keith Law: Same. One episode, never went back. Great look and setting, but whoa boy, was that slow.

John: Klaw: any thoughts on this guy Jordan Peterson? Several of my buddies are into him now, but I’ve read he’s big with the alt-right so I’m hesitant to even spend any time listening to him.
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s trash, and probably dangerous.

mike sixel: 7 wonders app is great, and the AI are strong.
Keith Law: Agreed. Just bought the Leaders in-app expansion yesterday.

Matt: Did you hear what’s going in PA? The GOP is so pissed the SC won’t allow gerrymandering so they are going to impeach 4 of the 5 liberal judges.
Keith Law: Yep. I’m not a PA resident, but I would be beyond furious to see this. The legislators gerrymandered the heck out of the state to gain control, and now are claiming that the justices are the ones subverting the will of the voters.

Paul at the Library: Is Winker still likely to overperform Nimmo this year, even with Nimmo seemingly having a job and the Reds currently flirting with a four man outfield?
Keith Law: On a rate basis, yes.

Kyle : Rodon – his career over?
Keith Law: That’s rather dramatic.

Ken: Saw you liked Frank Turner. Big fan myself. Favorite song?
Keith Law: Recovery.

Ray: Spent a few days in Tempe last weekend. Do you ever eat ballpark food out there? There’s a Some Burros tent in the outfield with great carne asada tacos. Best ballpark food I’ve had in awhile, not that ballpark food is that good in general.
Keith Law: I avoid ballpark food whenever possible.

Rob: Do you have a mystery novel to recommend
Keith Law: I’m a fan of Agatha Christie, Dorothy Sayers, & Rex Stout.

Danny from Boston: Bigger upside Kyle Tucker or Willie Calhoun?
Keith Law: Really? Tucker.

JJ: Is Tommy Pham a one-hit wonder, or a late bloomer?
Keith Law: Late bloomer. Had to get healthy and get a solution for his eye condition.

Jack: I get why you wouldn’t scout Blaze Jordan now, but is it valuable for MLB teams to start tracking kids who are freshmen and sophomores?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. I think it’s a waste of resources.

Daniel: Hosmer told fangraphs he’s looked into launch angle and worked JD Martinez’ offseason hitting coach. Assuming he makes the conscious effort, does joining the fly ball revolution give Hosmer a better chance of repeating his 4 WAR season going forward?
Keith Law: Sure. But a lot of players have tried this without getting better results, and I don’t think anyone has figured out which players can pull it off and which ones can’t. FWIW, Hosmer did show plus power as an amateur.

Buck: Don’t you think the Angels sent an army of investigators to the DR to try and uncover any evidence that Pujols is older than he claims? I’d be doing everything possible to claim his albatross contract was based on a lie and get it cancelled in court.
Keith Law: No, I don’t think they did that, nor would they likely be able to do so since they had no problem accepting his age – which was also accepted by the US government when he became a citizen in 2007 – when they signed the deal.

RSO: Re the weed comment: basically any substance can be harmful to people with certain conditions. Water can be harmful to someone who is hyponatremic.
Keith Law: Exactly. Weed is not like cocaine or meth. Marijuana should be decriminalized.

Jake: DO NOT CONGRATULATE
Keith Law: every time I saw that yesterday I kept thinking “DONNA MARTIN GRADUATES” and realized 2/3 of my readers wouldn’t get the joke.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week and there will not be a chat next week due to travel (unless there is another nor’easter … no thanks, i’ve had enough already). Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. Check out my book Smart Baseball, now out in paperback with a new afterword for 2018!